I'm sure a Leaver would win the membership vote, but I don't have the foggiest idea who that would be if it isn't Boris or Gove. Who are the other Leavers in the Cabinet? I assume that the Brexit Bulldog is too closely associated with the current negotiations to take over if a change is forced before we exit.
David Davis, Chris Grayling, Esther McVey, Penny Mordaunt, and the disgraced Liam Fox all backed Leave.
Not inconceivable that events and time will flow her way.
Too remain-y. Now that delivering the bus has resulted in the absolute and unequivocal victory of the leavers the tory culture wars are over and all that remains is to bayonet the wounded.
Javid or Hunt, probably the former, will likely be the Remainer candidates in the final two sent to the membership but if May is replaced the mood I get from Tory mbers is they now want a Leaver as leader unlike Remainer May so whichever of Boris, Gove or Mogg ends up in the last two has an excellent chance of winning the Tory membership vote and thus becoming Tory leader and PM.
Also of the above contenders Boris on -37% with Yougov is much more popular with the public than Hunt on -61% and Gove on 69%
Boris is still very much in contention. "Delivering the bus" will give him a huge boost with members, even if the final Brexit deal is meh.....
My big issue is STILL why would Gove think Boris has thrown off those doubts he had previously? Would he knife Boris AGAIN?
Gove I think has enough self awareness to know he is unelectable and lacks the charisma of Boris so this time I think Gove would back Boris in return for Boris making him his Chancellor
About time we returned to the days of PM and Chancellor scheming against each other, being reluctant allies.
Yes Boris and Gove are the new Cameron and Osborne and Brown and Blair
If Cameron and Osborne were reluctant allies they hid it well. Cameron even rewarded him with a major honour when he stepped down.
Plus Dave tried his best to ensure George Osborne was his successor.
Not inconceivable that events and time will flow her way.
Too remain-y. Now that delivering the bus has resulted in the absolute and unequivocal victory of the leavers the tory culture wars are over and all that remains is to bayonet the wounded.
Not inconceivable that events and time will flow her way.
Not impossible but isn't she currently (or about to be) pregnant, that takes us into 2019 even if she is back pretty quick. Even if she then went straight into taking over a safe seat unless May goes past 2022 it would be a spectacularly quick rise to go from a new MP to PM in just over 2 years. Surely not....
She would be a tough opponent for Labour though and would certainly be more attractive to Labour voters than the other options.
Anyway on to more important matters than PM. How are England going to do today? Tunisia are called the Eagles of Carthage. Does this give both @MorrisDancer and @TSE conflicts of interest or at least a foot in each camp?...
No one is calling Southgate the Scipio Africanus of England, curiously.
Its almost as if these classical allusions are not foremost in everyone's thoughts. Weird.
Almost as weird as that JRM poster that @ScottP linked to. I wonder what percentage of McDonnell's constituents have the faintest idea who JRM is?
Or know why JRM keeps his phone and wallet in his breast pocket. It doesn't really work. It's the same sort of half-cocked wheeze as JezFest, though one suspects a damn sight cheaper.
From what I can tell LabourLive was actually pretty successful they will be doing it again next year. Whereas I can't see this poster doing much work... I think his constituency voted leave and his majority was 18,000+
What are the criteria for it being 'actually pretty successful' ? Financial? Political? On what evidence do you base your judgement?
On the assumption you don't think much of my judgement I'll leave Stephen Bush do the talking first....
Probably more of a medium term pay off and political rather than financial. Actually pretty successful in that we hosted the first one and it went okay, it is certainly something that can be built on.
So, no evidence for your claim. Taking the initial line from that article that something was not a disaster is rather a low bar to start with.
Another question for you: what do you believe the purpose of the festival was?
I'm sure a Leaver would win the membership vote, but I don't have the foggiest idea who that would be if it isn't Boris or Gove. Who are the other Leavers in the Cabinet? I assume that the Brexit Bulldog is too closely associated with the current negotiations to take over if a change is forced before we exit.
David Davis, Chris Grayling, Esther McVey, Penny Mordaunt, and the disgraced Liam Fox all backed Leave.
Which means it's Gove or who ever Gove anoints....
My sense is that those that recognise who Hunt and Gove are (both are still not universally known) haven’t a great opinion of either.
That leaves Javid, so my money is currently going on him.
Its first about being known in tory circles though. Their public perception is important to that I imagine, but is guess you get one chance to revitalise your image as a leadership figure not, say, a health secretary.
Javid has made a good start in getting some good press in his first weeks, so goes into a contest with an advantage I'd say. Hunt has more baggage but if chosen by the tories I'd give him one chance with the public to be seen as more than that health secretary no one likes.
It’s very hard to run from Health, but I doubt Hunt has much of a choice.
I suspect he’d far rather be Chancellor for a year or so first, so he can establish a slightly different public persona.
30 races at Royal Ascot and a World Cup to bet on and some are obsessing about a contest in which we don't know the runners and riders yet.
So, moving massively OFF topic to something of more interest - England have three "styles" of World Cup campaign - the confident start which promises miracles and fades to nothing, the poor start which suddenly blossoms into a couple of world class performances before reality intrudes or the poor start which never gets going and it's an early flight home.
I don't know - I just can't see that squad producing two or three world class performances to get beyond the QF stage - they could do it once and just conceivably twice.
As for the most important sporting event of the week by a country mile, it's off to Berkshire and I don't know if Ascot racecourse is in Theresa May's constituency (HYUFD might be able to help me out) but HMQ will of course be present.
My Day 1 selections for the big races are:
2.30: LIGHTNING SPEAR (e/w) 3.45: LADY AURELIA 4.20: US NAVY FLAG (e/w)
Have a successful betting week all whatever markets you're playing.
Javid or Hunt, probably the former, will likely be the Remainer candidates in the final two sent to the membership but if May is replaced the mood I get from Tory mbers is they now want a Leaver as leader unlike Remainer May so whichever of Boris, Gove or Mogg ends up in the last two has an excellent chance of winning the Tory membership vote and thus becoming Tory leader and PM.
I doubt the membership will get a vote. If they do, then like you I doubt there will be a true Brexiteer on the ballot paper: only Gove of the likely runners ticks that box, since Boris was only ever 50/50 (and won't stand as I predicted earlier in this thread) and Hunt's conversion came after the referendum.
The membership will go berserk if they do not get a vote this time so they will get one and given the Leave and Remain factions within the Tory Parliamentary Party will almost certainly refuse to give a candidate from the other faction a coronation, the last candidate standing from each faction will end up comprising the two who go to the membership
There are 318 Conservative MPs. There were 62 signatories of the ERG letter, and even if we can round it up to 100 Leaver MPs, they are still outnumbered 2-1. They do not have the strength to crow-bar Gove into the final two.
130 Tory MPs voted Leave, well over a third of the 318 total and the 106 MPs needed to ensure a candidate in the final two sent to Tory members
Yes but how many feel strongly enough to let it override other concerns? The 62 on the letter rounded up to 100 looks right. The numbers aren't there to force a dogmatic Brexiteer onto the ballot. Hunt and Javid are lukewarm leavers which will be enough for some.
Asfor the most important sporting event of the week by a country mile, it's off to Berkshire and I don't know if Ascot racecourse is in Theresa May's constituency (HYUFD might be able to help me out) but HMQ will of course be present. .
Pretty sure it's part of Windsor. Which would be Adam Afriye
Asfor the most important sporting event of the week by a country mile, it's off to Berkshire and I don't know if Ascot racecourse is in Theresa May's constituency (HYUFD might be able to help me out) but HMQ will of course be present. .
Pretty sure it's part of Windsor. Which would be Adam Afriye
Adam Afriyie is another reason why I love Nicholas Soames.
Mr Soames told Eurosceptic Mr Afriyie: ‘You are a chateau bottled nuclear powered ****. You are totally f***ing disloyal, a f***ing disgrace to your party, your fellow MPs, your Prime Minister and your country.’
The key for the Tories is to find someone who dors not keep the current Labour voting coalition together. Gove will, Johnson will, Hunt will, Rees Mogg will. Javid is unknown, so might not. Better, though, would be to find a newer face. But that would require May to bring a few into the Cabinet, which means firing some people. And she is in too weak a position to do that.
The key for the Tories is to find someone who dors not keep the current Labour voting coalition together. Gove will, Johnson will, Hunt will, Rees Mogg will. Javid is unknown, so might not. Better, though, would be to find a newer face. But that would require May to bring a few into the Cabinet, which means firing some people. And she is in too weak a position to do that.
Johnson twice built a coalition to beat Ken Livingstone in London even if the left hated him and the UK as a whole is more Tory and pro Brexit than London
Javid or Hunt, probably the former, will likely be the Remainer candidates in the final two sent to the membership but if May is replaced the mood I get from Tory mbers is they now want a Leaver as leader unlike Remainer May so whichever of Boris, Gove or Mogg ends up in the last two has an excellent chance of winning the Tory membership vote and thus becoming Tory leader and PM.
I doubt the membership will get a vote. If they do, then like you I doubt there will be a true Brexiteer on the ballot paper: only Gove of the likely runners ticks that box, since Boris was only ever 50/50 (and won't stand as I predicted earlier in this thread) and Hunt's conversion came after the referendum.
The membership will go berserk if they do not get a vote this time so they will get one and given the Leave and Remain factions within the Tory Parliamentary Party will almost certainly refuse to give a candidate from the other faction a coronation, the last candidate standing from each faction will end up comprising the two who go to the membership
There are 318 Conservative MPs. There were 62 signatories of the ERG letter, and even if we can round it up to 100 Leaver MPs, they are still outnumbered 2-1. They do not have the strength to crow-bar Gove into the final two.
130 Tory MPs voted Leave, well over a third of the 318 total and the 106 MPs needed to ensure a candidate in the final two sent to Tory members
Yes but how many feel strongly enough to let it override other concerns? The 62 on the letter rounded up to 100 looks right. The numbers aren't there to force a dogmatic Brexiteer onto the ballot. Hunt and Javid are lukewarm leavers which will be enough for some.
If even Leadsom could get to the final two, Boris, Gove or Mogg certainly will
Javid or Hunt, probably the former, will likely be the Remainer candidates in the final two sent to the membership but if May is replaced the mood I get from Tory mbers is they now want a Leaver as leader unlike Remainer May so whichever of Boris, Gove or Mogg ends up in the last two has an excellent chance of winning the Tory membership vote and thus becoming Tory leader and PM.
Also of the above contenders Boris on -37% with Yougov is much more popular with the public than Hunt on -61% and Gove on 69%
Boris is still very much in contention. "Delivering the bus" will give him a huge boost with members, even if the final Brexit deal is meh.....
My big issue is STILL why would Gove think Boris has thrown off those doubts he had previously? Would he knife Boris AGAIN?
Gove I think has enough self awareness to know he is unelectable and lacks the charisma of Boris so this time I think Gove would back Boris in return for Boris making him his Chancellor
About time we returned to the days of PM and Chancellor scheming against each other, being reluctant allies.
Yes Boris and Gove are the new Cameron and Osborne and Brown and Blair
If Cameron and Osborne were reluctant allies they hid it well. Cameron even rewarded him with a major honour when he stepped down.
They were closer than Brown and Blair and Boris and Gove but remember Osborne warned Cameron against an EU referendum
The key for the Tories is to find someone who dors not keep the current Labour voting coalition together. Gove will, Johnson will, Hunt will, Rees Mogg will. Javid is unknown, so might not. Better, though, would be to find a newer face. But that would require May to bring a few into the Cabinet, which means firing some people. And she is in too weak a position to do that.
Johnson twice built a coalition to beat Ken Livingstone in London even if the left hated him and the UK as a whole is more Tory and pro Brexit than London
Things have changed a bit since 2012. Johnson does not help the Tories win the seats from Labour they need for a majority because he keeps the current Labour voting coalition together.
I'm sure a Leaver would win the membership vote, but I don't have the foggiest idea who that would be if it isn't Boris or Gove. Who are the other Leavers in the Cabinet? I assume that the Brexit Bulldog is too closely associated with the current negotiations to take over if a change is forced before we exit.
David Davis, Chris Grayling, Esther McVey, Penny Mordaunt, and the disgraced Liam Fox all backed Leave.
I suggest that makes Esther McVey the one to watch.
Javid or Hunt, probably the former, will likely be the Remainer candidates in the final two sent to the membership but if May is replaced the mood I get from Tory mbers is they now want a Leaver as leader unlike Remainer May so whichever of Boris, Gove or Mogg ends up in the last two has an excellent chance of winning the Tory membership vote and thus becoming Tory leader and PM.
I doubt the membership will get a vote. If they do, then like you I doubt there will be a true Brexiteer on the ballot paper: only Gove of the likely runners ticks that box, since Boris was only ever 50/50 (and won't stand as I predicted earlier in this thread) and Hunt's conversion came after the referendum.
The membership will go berserk if they do not get a vote this time so they will get one and given the Leave and Remain factions within the Tory Parliamentary Party will almost certainly refuse to give a candidate from the other faction a coronation, the last candidate standing from each faction will end up comprising the two who go to the membership
There are 318 Conservative MPs. There were 62 signatories of the ERG letter, and even if we can round it up to 100 Leaver MPs, they are still outnumbered 2-1. They do not have the strength to crow-bar Gove into the final two.
130 Tory MPs voted Leave, well over a third of the 318 total and the 106 MPs needed to ensure a candidate in the final two sent to Tory members
Yes but how many feel strongly enough to let it override other concerns? The 62 on the letter rounded up to 100 looks right. The numbers aren't there to force a dogmatic Brexiteer onto the ballot. Hunt and Javid are lukewarm leavers which will be enough for some.
If even Leadsom could get to the final two, Boris, Gove or Mogg certainly will
Mogg won't stand. Boris will be forced to withdraw. Gove won't have the numbers because he has pissed off too many people in the past, even if JRM can deliver the ERG for him. Remember, Leadsom beat Gove and Boris last time!
The key for the Tories is to find someone who dors not keep the current Labour voting coalition together. Gove will, Johnson will, Hunt will, Rees Mogg will. Javid is unknown, so might not. Better, though, would be to find a newer face. But that would require May to bring a few into the Cabinet, which means firing some people. And she is in too weak a position to do that.
Johnson twice built a coalition to beat Ken Livingstone in London even if the left hated him and the UK as a whole is more Tory and pro Brexit than London
Things have changed a bit since 2012. Johnson does not help the Tories win the seats from Labour they need for a majority because he keeps the current Labour voting coalition together.
I could see a Johnson led Tories winning Peterborough, Barrow, Dudley North, Newcastle under Lyme, Crewe and Nantwich, Kensington etc ie enough Labour seats with small majorities (which mostly voted Leave) for a small Tory majority
I'm sure a Leaver would win the membership vote, but I don't have the foggiest idea who that would be if it isn't Boris or Gove. Who are the other Leavers in the Cabinet? I assume that the Brexit Bulldog is too closely associated with the current negotiations to take over if a change is forced before we exit.
David Davis, Chris Grayling, Esther McVey, Penny Mordaunt, and the disgraced Liam Fox all backed Leave.
I suggest that makes Esther McVey the one to watch.
Esther McVey is romantically linked to Philip Davies, serial rebel and friend of bookies, FOBTs and Christopher Chope. That will not help her chances, fair or not.
Javid or Hunt, probably the former, will likely be the Remainer candidates in the final two sent to the membership but if May is replaced the mood I get from Tory mbers is they now want a Leaver as leader unlike Remainer May so whichever of Boris, Gove or Mogg ends up in the last two has an excellent chance of winning the Tory membership vote and thus becoming Tory leader and PM.
I doubt the membership will get a vote. If they do, then like you I doubt there will be a true Brexiteer on the ballot paper: only Gove of the likely runners ticks that box, since Boris was only ever 50/50 (and won't stand as I predicted earlier in this thread) and Hunt's conversion came after the referendum.
The membership will go berserk if they do not get a vote this time so they will get one and given the Leave and Remain factions within the Tory Parliamentary Party will almost certainly refuse to give a candidate from the other faction a coronation, the last candidate standing from each faction will end up comprising the two who go to the membership
There are 318 Conservative MPs. There were 62 signatories of the ERG letter, and even if we can round it up to 100 Leaver MPs, they are still outnumbered 2-1. They do not have the strength to crow-bar Gove into the final two.
130 Tory MPs voted Leave, well over a third of the 318 total and the 106 MPs needed to ensure a candidate in the final two sent to Tory members
Yes but how many feel strongly enough to let it override other concerns? The 62 on the letter rounded up to 100 looks right. The numbers aren't there to force a dogmatic Brexiteer onto the ballot. Hunt and Javid are lukewarm leavers which will be enough for some.
If even Leadsom could get to the final two, Boris, Gove or Mogg certainly will
Mogg won't stand. Boris will be forced to withdraw. Gove won't have the numbers because he has pissed off too many people in the past, even if JRM can deliver the ERG for him. Remember, Leadsom beat Gove and Boris last time!
Boris will stand this time and Gove will likely back him, if though Boris does not stand Mogg will instead. Plus Gove came third after Leadsom, 2/3 of the top 3 were Leavers
Javid or Hunt, probably the former, will likely be the Remainer candidates in the final two sent to the membership but if May is replaced the mood I get from Tory mbers is they now want a Leaver as leader unlike Remainer May so whichever of Boris, Gove or Mogg ends up in the last two has an excellent chance of winning the Tory membership vote and thus becoming Tory leader and PM.
I doubt the membership will get a vote. If they do, then like you I doubt there will be a true Brexiteer on the ballot paper: only Gove of the likely runners ticks that box, since Boris was only ever 50/50 (and won't stand as I predicted earlier in this thread) and Hunt's conversion came after the referendum.
The membership will go berserk if they do not get a vote this time so they will get one and given the Leave and Remain factions within the Tory Parliamentary Party will almost certainly refuse to give a candidate from the other faction a coronation, the last candidate standing from each faction will end up comprising the two who go to the membership
There are 318 Conservative MPs. There were 62 signatories of the ERG letter, and even if we can round it up to 100 Leaver MPs, they are still outnumbered 2-1. They do not have the strength to crow-bar Gove into the final two.
130 Tory MPs voted Leave, well over a third of the 318 total and the 106 MPs needed to ensure a candidate in the final two sent to Tory members
Yes but how many feel strongly enough to let it override other concerns? The 62 on the letter rounded up to 100 looks right. The numbers aren't there to force a dogmatic Brexiteer onto the ballot. Hunt and Javid are lukewarm leavers which will be enough for some.
If even Leadsom could get to the final two, Boris, Gove or Mogg certainly will
Mogg won't stand. Boris will be forced to withdraw. Gove won't have the numbers because he has pissed off too many people in the past, even if JRM can deliver the ERG for him. Remember, Leadsom beat Gove and Boris last time!
If there is a contest before Brexit then there will surely be a Leaver who will receive the support of most of those who backed Leadsom last time.
Anyway on to more important matters than PM. How are England going to do today? Tunisia are called the Eagles of Carthage. Does this give both @MorrisDancer and @TSE conflicts of interest or at least a foot in each camp?...
No one is calling Southgate the Scipio Africanus of England, curiously.
Its almost as if these classical allusions are not foremost in everyone's thoughts. Weird.
Almost as weird as that JRM poster that @ScottP linked to. I wonder what percentage of McDonnell's constituents have the faintest idea who JRM is?
Or know why JRM keeps his phone and wallet in his breast pocket. It doesn't really work. It's the same sort of half-cocked wheeze as JezFest, though one suspects a damn sight cheaper.
From what I can tell LabourLive was actually pretty successful they will be doing it again next year. Whereas I can't see this poster doing much work... I think his constituency voted leave and his majority was 18,000+
What are the criteria for it being 'actually pretty successful' ? Financial? Political? On what evidence do you base your judgement?
On the assumption you don't think much of my judgement I'll leave Stephen Bush do the talking first....
Probably more of a medium term pay off and political rather than financial. Actually pretty successful in that we hosted the first one and it went okay, it is certainly something that can be built on.
So, no evidence for your claim. Taking the initial line from that article that something was not a disaster is rather a low bar to start with.
Another question for you: what do you believe the purpose of the festival was?
The evidence is that the event happened and went fairly well and that they are planning to do it next year and will be more confident know they now they can pull it off. You may not like the evidence but that is a completely different matter.
I answered that in the previous one, political. The currency Labour are ultimately after is votes.
I'm sure a Leaver would win the membership vote, but I don't have the foggiest idea who that would be if it isn't Boris or Gove. Who are the other Leavers in the Cabinet? I assume that the Brexit Bulldog is too closely associated with the current negotiations to take over if a change is forced before we exit.
David Davis, Chris Grayling, Esther McVey, Penny Mordaunt, and the disgraced Liam Fox all backed Leave.
I suggest that makes Esther McVey the one to watch.
Esther McVey is romantically linked to Philip Davies, serial rebel and friend of bookies, FOBTs and Christopher Chope. That will not help her chances, fair or not.
The key for the Tories is to find someone who dors not keep the current Labour voting coalition together. Gove will, Johnson will, Hunt will, Rees Mogg will. Javid is unknown, so might not. Better, though, would be to find a newer face. But that would require May to bring a few into the Cabinet, which means firing some people. And she is in too weak a position to do that.
Johnson twice built a coalition to beat Ken Livingstone in London even if the left hated him and the UK as a whole is more Tory and pro Brexit than London
Things have changed a bit since 2012. Johnson does not help the Tories win the seats from Labour they need for a majority because he keeps the current Labour voting coalition together.
I could see a Johnson led Tories winning Peterborough, Barrrow, Dudley North, Newcastle under Lyme, Crewe and Nantwich, Kensington etc ie enough Labour seats with small majorities (which mostly voted Leave) for a small Tory majority
If you are using the last election as a baseline then you have to factor in that no-one expected Labour to win so Corbyn and the fantasy manifesto were not critically analysed, and Labour were a safe repository for protest votes. On the other side, May drove people to oppose by saying she wanted a huge majority to push through Brexit, a great way to recruit Lib Dems to Labour, and then she shot herself in the foot with the manifesto, and her performances. The whole 'strategy' drove probably 20- 30 seats to Labour.
The key for the Tories is to find someone who dors not keep the current Labour voting coalition together. Gove will, Johnson will, Hunt will, Rees Mogg will. Javid is unknown, so might not. Better, though, would be to find a newer face. But that would require May to bring a few into the Cabinet, which means firing some people. And she is in too weak a position to do that.
Johnson twice built a coalition to beat Ken Livingstone in London even if the left hated him and the UK as a whole is more Tory and pro Brexit than London
Things have changed a bit since 2012. Johnson does not help the Tories win the seats from Labour they need for a majority because he keeps the current Labour voting coalition together.
I could see a Johnson led Tories winning Peterborough, Barrow, Dudley North, Newcastle under Lyme, Crewe and Nantwich, Kensington etc ie enough Labour seats with small majorities (which mostly voted Leave) for a small Tory majority
The biggest change from 2012 is that Boris is probably the candidate Labour would most like to face at the next GE. They used to worry about him. Not anymore.
The key for the Tories is to find someone who dors not keep the current Labour voting coalition together. Gove will, Johnson will, Hunt will, Rees Mogg will. Javid is unknown, so might not. Better, though, would be to find a newer face. But that would require May to bring a few into the Cabinet, which means firing some people. And she is in too weak a position to do that.
Johnson twice built a coalition to beat Ken Livingstone in London even if the left hated him and the UK as a whole is more Tory and pro Brexit than London
Things have changed a bit since 2012. Johnson does not help the Tories win the seats from Labour they need for a majority because he keeps the current Labour voting coalition together.
I could see a Johnson led Tories winning Peterborough, Barrrow, Dudley North, Newcastle under Lyme, Crewe and Nantwich, Kensington etc ie enough Labour seats with small majorities (which mostly voted Leave) for a small Tory majority
If you are using the last election as a baseline then you have to factor in that no-one expected Labour to win so Corbyn and the fantasy manifesto were not critically analysed, and Labour were a safe repository for protest votes. On the other side, May drove people to oppose by saying she wanted a huge majority to push through Brexit, a great way to recruit Lib Dems to Labour, and then she shot herself in the foot with the manifesto, and her performances. The whole 'strategy' drove probably 20- 30 seats to Labour.
The Tories will also have a better manifesto next time and be more realistic targeting Labour seats needed for a small majority of 10-20 and defending the most vulnerable Tory marginal seats not targeting seats needed for a landslide majority of 100+
The key for the Tories is to find someone who dors not keep the current Labour voting coalition together. Gove will, Johnson will, Hunt will, Rees Mogg will. Javid is unknown, so might not. Better, though, would be to find a newer face. But that would require May to bring a few into the Cabinet, which means firing some people. And she is in too weak a position to do that.
Johnson twice built a coalition to beat Ken Livingstone in London even if the left hated him and the UK as a whole is more Tory and pro Brexit than London
Things have changed a bit since 2012. Johnson does not help the Tories win the seats from Labour they need for a majority because he keeps the current Labour voting coalition together.
I could see a Johnson led Tories winning Peterborough, Barrow, Dudley North, Newcastle under Lyme, Crewe and Nantwich, Kensington etc ie enough Labour seats with small majorities (which mostly voted Leave) for a small Tory majority
The biggest change from 2012 is that Boris is probably the candidate Labour would most like to face at the next GE. They used to worry about him. Not anymore.
Don't know where you get that from, Gove is the candidate Labour most want to face followed by Hunt
The evidence is that the event happened and went fairly well and that they are planning to do it next year and will be more confident know they now they can pull it off. You may not like the evidence but that is a completely different matter.
I answered that in the previous one, political. The currency Labour are ultimately after is votes.
And how did it garner votes, except from those who are already part of the cult? In fact, that sort of event might actually drive away other would-be Labour voters.
It's not a case of whether I like the 'evidence' or not; it's that you're incapable of producing any aside from vague hand-wavium. If something is, as you claim, 'actually pretty successful', I'd expect you to have criteria to judge it against.
Anyway on to more important matters than PM. How are England going to do today? Tunisia are called the Eagles of Carthage. Does this give both @MorrisDancer and @TSE conflicts of interest or at least a foot in each camp?...
No one is calling Southgate the Scipio Africanus of England, curiously.
Its almost as if these classical allusions are not foremost in everyone's thoughts. Weird.
Almost as weird as that JRM poster that @ScottP linked to. I wonder what percentage of McDonnell's constituents have the faintest idea who JRM is?
Or know why JRM keeps his phone and wallet in his breast pocket. It doesn't really work. It's the same sort of half-cocked wheeze as JezFest, though one suspects a damn sight cheaper.
From what I can tell LabourLive was actually pretty successful they will be doing it again next year. Whereas I can't see this poster doing much work... I think his constituency voted leave and his majority was 18,000+
What are the criteria for it being 'actually pretty successful' ? Financial? Political? On what evidence do you base your judgement?
On the assumption you don't think much of my judgement I'll leave Stephen Bush do the talking first....
Probably more of a medium term pay off and political rather than financial. Actually pretty successful in that we hosted the first one and it went okay, it is certainly something that can be built on.
So, no evidence for your claim. Taking the initial line from that article that something was not a disaster is rather a low bar to start with.
Another question for you: what do you believe the purpose of the festival was?
The evidence is that the event happened and went fairly well and that they are planning to do it next year and will be more confident know they now they can pull it off. You may not like the evidence but that is a completely different matter.
I answered that in the previous one, political. The currency Labour are ultimately after is votes.
I'm pretty sure there are more cost effective ways to get votes.
The evidence is that the event happened and went fairly well and that they are planning to do it next year and will be more confident know they now they can pull it off. You may not like the evidence but that is a completely different matter.
I answered that in the previous one, political. The currency Labour are ultimately after is votes.
And how did it garner votes, except from those who are already part of the cult? In fact, that sort of event might actually drive away other would-be Labour voters.
It's not a case of whether I like the 'evidence' or not; it's that you're incapable of producing any aside from vague hand-wavium. If something is, as you claim, 'actually pretty successful', I'd expect you to have criteria to judge it against.
I think Jeremy said so, so it must be true. Is that enough evidence?
Javid or Hunt, probably the former, will likely be the Remainer candidates in the final two sent to the membership but if May is replaced the mood I get from Tory mbers is they now want a Leaver as leader unlike Remainer May so whichever of Boris, Gove or Mogg ends up in the last two has an excellent chance of winning the Tory membership vote and thus becoming Tory leader and PM.
I doubt the membership will get a vote. If they do, then like you I doubt there will be a true Brexiteer on the ballot paper: only Gove of the likely runners ticks that box, since Boris was only ever 50/50 (and won't stand as I predicted earlier in this thread) and Hunt's conversion came after the referendum.
The membership will go berserk if they do not get a vote this time so they will get one and given the Leave and Remain factions within the Tory Parliamentary Party will almost certainly refuse to give a candidate from the other faction a coronation, the last candidate standing from each faction will end up comprising the two who go to the membership
There are 318 Conservative MPs. There were 62 signatories of the ERG letter, and even if we can round it up to 100 Leaver MPs, they are still outnumbered 2-1. They do not have the strength to crow-bar Gove into the final two.
130 Tory MPs voted Leave, well over a third of the 318 total and the 106 MPs needed to ensure a candidate in the final two sent to Tory members
Yes but how many feel strongly enough to let it override other concerns? The 62 on the letter rounded up to 100 looks right. The numbers aren't there to force a dogmatic Brexiteer onto the ballot. Hunt and Javid are lukewarm leavers which will be enough for some.
If even Leadsom could get to the final two, Boris, Gove or Mogg certainly will
Mogg won't stand. Boris will be forced to withdraw. Gove won't have the numbers because he has pissed off too many people in the past, even if JRM can deliver the ERG for him. Remember, Leadsom beat Gove and Boris last time!
Boris will stand this time and Gove will likely back him, if though Boris does not stand Mogg will instead. Plus Gove came third after Leadsom, 2/3 of the top 3 were Leavers
Gove didn't think that Boris was up to the job last time, what has changed?
Javid or Hunt, probably the former, will likely be the Remainer candidates in the final two sent to the membership but if May is replaced the mood I get from Tory mbers is they now want a Leaver as leader unlike Remainer May so whichever of Boris, Gove or Mogg ends up in the last two has an excellent chance of winning the Tory membership vote and thus becoming Tory leader and PM.
I doubt the membership will get a vote. If they do, then like you I doubt there will be a true Brexiteer on the ballot paper: only Gove of the likely runners ticks that box, since Boris was only ever 50/50 (and won't stand as I predicted earlier in this thread) and Hunt's conversion came after the referendum.
The membership will go berserk if they do not get a vote this time so they will get one and given the Leave and Remain factions within the Tory Parliamentary Party will almost certainly refuse to give a candidate from the other faction a coronation, the last candidate standing from each faction will end up comprising the two who go to the membership
There are 318 Conservative MPs. There were 62 signatories of the ERG letter, and even if we can round it up to 100 Leaver MPs, they are still outnumbered 2-1. They do not have the strength to crow-bar Gove into the final two.
130 Tory MPs voted Leave, well over a third of the 318 total and the 106 MPs needed to ensure a candidate in the final two sent to Tory members
Yes but how many feel strongly enough to let it override other concerns? The 62 on the letter rounded up to 100 looks right. The numbers aren't there to force a dogmatic Brexiteer onto the ballot. Hunt and Javid are lukewarm leavers which will be enough for some.
If even Leadsom could get to the final two, Boris, Gove or Mogg certainly will
Mogg won't stand. Boris will be forced to withdraw. Gove won't have the numbers because he has pissed off too many people in the past, even if JRM can deliver the ERG for him. Remember, Leadsom beat Gove and Boris last time!
Boris will stand this time and Gove will likely back him, if though Boris does not stand Mogg will instead. Plus Gove came third after Leadsom, 2/3 of the top 3 were Leavers
Gove didn't think that Boris was up to the job last time, what has changed?
Gove won't go with Boris. He's more canny than that.
The key for the Tories is to find someone who dors not keep the current Labour voting coalition together. Gove will, Johnson will, Hunt will, Rees Mogg will. Javid is unknown, so might not. Better, though, would be to find a newer face. But that would require May to bring a few into the Cabinet, which means firing some people. And she is in too weak a position to do that.
Johnson twice built a coalition to beat Ken Livingstone in London even if the left hated him and the UK as a whole is more Tory and pro Brexit than London
Things have changed a bit since 2012. Johnson does not help the Tories win the seats from Labour they need for a majority because he keeps the current Labour voting coalition together.
I could see a Johnson led Tories winning Peterborough, Barrow, Dudley North, Newcastle under Lyme, Crewe and Nantwich, Kensington etc ie enough Labour seats with small majorities (which mostly voted Leave) for a small Tory majority
The biggest change from 2012 is that Boris is probably the candidate Labour would most like to face at the next GE. They used to worry about him. Not anymore.
Don't know where you get that from, Gove is the candidate Labour most want to face followed by Hunt
I get that from being a member of the Labour party and talking to other Labour members. Johnson would fire people up and unite the party like no-one else. He’d motivate them to go out and campaign. He makes Corbyn seem less of a burden. That said, they’d certainly be very happy with Gove and Hunt, too; which takes us back to my initial point.
I'm sure a Leaver would win the membership vote, but I don't have the foggiest idea who that would be if it isn't Boris or Gove. Who are the other Leavers in the Cabinet? I assume that the Brexit Bulldog is too closely associated with the current negotiations to take over if a change is forced before we exit.
David Davis, Chris Grayling, Esther McVey, Penny Mordaunt, and the disgraced Liam Fox all backed Leave.
I suggest that makes Esther McVey the one to watch.
The evidence is that the event happened and went fairly well and that they are planning to do it next year and will be more confident know they now they can pull it off. You may not like the evidence but that is a completely different matter.
I answered that in the previous one, political. The currency Labour are ultimately after is votes.
And how did it garner votes, except from those who are already part of the cult? In fact, that sort of event might actually drive away other would-be Labour voters.
It's not a case of whether I like the 'evidence' or not; it's that you're incapable of producing any aside from vague hand-wavium. If something is, as you claim, 'actually pretty successful', I'd expect you to have criteria to judge it against.
Much like Corbyn's campaigning before the election, entirely useless as only cultists would go and see him and talk right?
I realise some struggle with the modern world but we have mass communication tools these days.
Unsurprisingly this doesn't appeal to you but I don't think men droning on about cultists is really Labour's target market to start with, I imagine you similarly decided you didn't like Labour general election offering, which wasn't really an issue then either. It may have escaped your attention but Labour's offer was actually quite popular.
Off Topic - Somebody correct me if i'm wrong, but given this weekends results it looks like England would be better off coming 2nd in their group and then avoiding either Brazil/Germany in the QF's. Could make the England v Belgium game an interesting match...
Anyway on to more important matters than PM. How are England going to do today? Tunisia are called the Eagles of Carthage. Does this give both @MorrisDancer and @TSE conflicts of interest or at least a foot in each camp?...
No one is calling Southgate the Scipio Africanus of England, curiously.
Its almost as if these classical allusions are not foremost in everyone's thoughts. Weird.
Almost as weird as that JRM poster that @ScottP linked to. I wonder what percentage of McDonnell's constituents have the faintest idea who JRM is?
Or know why JRM keeps his phone and wallet in his breast pocket. It doesn't really work. It's the same sort of half-cocked wheeze as JezFest, though one suspects a damn sight cheaper.
From what I can tell LabourLive was actually pretty successful they will be doing it again next year. Whereas I can't see this poster doing much work... I think his constituency voted leave and his majority was 18,000+
What are the criteria for it being 'actually pretty successful' ? Financial? Political? On what evidence do you base your judgement?
On the assumption you don't think much of my judgement I'll leave Stephen Bush do the talking first....
Probably more of a medium term pay off and political rather than financial. Actually pretty successful in that we hosted the first one and it went okay, it is certainly something that can be built on.
So, no evidence for your claim. Taking the initial line from that article that something was not a disaster is rather a low bar to start with.
Another question for you: what do you believe the purpose of the festival was?
The evidence is that the event happened and went fairly well and that they are planning to do it next year and will be more confident know they now they can pull it off. You may not like the evidence but that is a completely different matter.
I answered that in the previous one, political. The currency Labour are ultimately after is votes.
I'm pretty sure there are more cost effective ways to get votes.
Judging by the last election and the spending of the two parties I beg to differ.
"Paul Johnson, director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, told Sky News that the prime minister's proposal was flawed because the "Brexit dividend" did not exist.
"In the short run, arithmetically there isn't because we're going to continue giving money to the EU and spending money on farmers and so on through to 2023 - there's literally no money there," he said.
"In the longer run, the government has accepted that the economy will be smaller and and tax revenues will be lower as a result of Brexit."
I'm sure a Leaver would win the membership vote, but I don't have the foggiest idea who that would be if it isn't Boris or Gove. Who are the other Leavers in the Cabinet? I assume that the Brexit Bulldog is too closely associated with the current negotiations to take over if a change is forced before we exit.
David Davis, Chris Grayling, Esther McVey, Penny Mordaunt, and the disgraced Liam Fox all backed Leave.
I suggest that makes Esther McVey the one to watch.
Can't argue with that.
I'd be very surprised if it was McVey due to her other half being the odious Philip Davies. I'd suggest that Javid would be wise to play up his Leave credentials. As far as I remember he was pro Brexit but close to Osborne and if he did a mea culpa, and said that the economic data that showed immediate damage had shown to be unreliable, and that he now thought Brexit was the correct choice he could get support from leavers.
I'm sure a Leaver would win the membership vote, but I don't have the foggiest idea who that would be if it isn't Boris or Gove. Who are the other Leavers in the Cabinet? I assume that the Brexit Bulldog is too closely associated with the current negotiations to take over if a change is forced before we exit.
David Davis, Chris Grayling, Esther McVey, Penny Mordaunt, and the disgraced Liam Fox all backed Leave.
I suggest that makes Esther McVey the one to watch.
Can't argue with that.
She'll have to be quick. At some point in this Parliament the UC clusterf*** meets tax credits and then it is poll tax redux for thousands of striving working families.
She will be have to pretty agile to escape from that burning platform with any leadership hope intact.
Anyway on to more important matters than PM. How are England going to do today? Tunisia are called the Eagles of Carthage. Does this give both @MorrisDancer and @TSE conflicts of interest or at least a foot in each camp?...
No one is calling Southgate the Scipio Africanus of England, curiously.
Its almost as if these classical allusions are not foremost in everyone's thoughts. Weird.
Almost as weird as that JRM poster that @ScottP linked to. I wonder what percentage of McDonnell's constituents have the faintest idea who JRM is?
Or know why JRM keeps his phone and wallet in his breast pocket. It doesn't really work. It's the same sort of half-cocked wheeze as JezFest, though one suspects a damn sight cheaper.
From what I can tell LabourLive was actually pretty successful they will be doing it again next year. Whereas I can't see this poster doing much work... I think his constituency voted leave and his majority was 18,000+
What are the criteria for it being 'actually pretty successful' ? Financial? Political? On what evidence do you base your judgement?
On the assumption you don't think much of my judgement I'll leave Stephen Bush do the talking first....
Probably more of a medium term pay off and political rather than financial. Actually pretty successful in that we hosted the first one and it went okay, it is certainly something that can be built on.
So, no evidence for your claim. Taking the initial line from that article that something was not a disaster is rather a low bar to start with.
Another question for you: what do you believe the purpose of the festival was?
The evidence is that the event happened and went fairly well and that they are planning to do it next year and will be more confident know they now they can pull it off. You may not like the evidence but that is a completely different matter.
I answered that in the previous one, political. The currency Labour are ultimately after is votes.
I'm pretty sure there are more cost effective ways to get votes.
Judging by the last election and the spending of the two parties I beg to differ.
Looking forward to the Glastonbury Party standing at the next election then!
"Paul Johnson, director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, told Sky News that the prime minister's proposal was flawed because the "Brexit dividend" did not exist.
"In the short run, arithmetically there isn't because we're going to continue giving money to the EU and spending money on farmers and so on through to 2023 - there's literally no money there," he said.
"In the longer run, the government has accepted that the economy will be smaller and and tax revenues will be lower as a result of Brexit."
Anyway on to more important matters than PM. How are England going to do today? Tunisia are called the Eagles of Carthage. Does this give both @MorrisDancer and @TSE conflicts of interest or at least a foot in each camp?...
Or know why JRM keeps his phone and wallet in his breast pocket. It doesn't really work. It's the same sort of half-cocked wheeze as JezFest, though one suspects a damn sight cheaper.
From what I can tell LabourLive was actually pretty successful they will be doing it again next year. Whereas I can't see this poster doing much work... I think his constituency voted leave and his majority was 18,000+
What are the criteria for it being 'actually pretty successful' ? Financial? Political? On what evidence do you base your judgement?
On the assumption you don't think much of my judgement I'll leave Stephen Bush do the talking first....
Probably more of a medium term pay off and political rather than financial. Actually pretty successful in that we hosted the first one and it went okay, it is certainly something that can be built on.
So, no evidence for your claim. Taking the initial line from that article that something was not a disaster is rather a low bar to start with.
Another question for you: what do you believe the purpose of the festival was?
The evidence is that the event happened and went fairly well and that they are planning to do it next year and will be more confident know they now they can pull it off. You may not like the evidence but that is a completely different matter.
I answered that in the previous one, political. The currency Labour are ultimately after is votes.
I'm pretty sure there are more cost effective ways to get votes.
Judging by the last election and the spending of the two parties I beg to differ.
Looking forward to the Glastonbury Party standing at the next election then!
If it helps bring in votes for a Labour government I don't mind what you call it, I've heard worse.
Off Topic - Somebody correct me if i'm wrong, but given this weekends results it looks like England would be better off coming 2nd in their group and then avoiding either Brazil/Germany in the QF's. Could make the England v Belgium game an interesting match...
Javid or Hunt, probably the former, will likely be the Remainer candidates in the final two sent to the membership but if May is replaced the mood I get from Tory mbers is they now want a Leaver as leader unlike Remainer May so whichever of Boris, Gove or Mogg ends up in the last two has an excellent chance of winning the Tory membership vote and thus becoming Tory leader and PM.
I doubt the membership will get a vote. If they do, then like you I doubt there will be a true Brexiteer on the ballot paper: only Gove of the likely runners ticks that box, since Boris was only ever 50/50 (and won't stand as I predicted earlier in this thread) and Hunt's conversion came after the referendum.
The membership will go berserk if they do not get a vote this time so they will get one and given the Leave and Remain factions within the Tory Parliamentary Party will almost certainly refuse to give a candidate from the other faction a coronation, the last candidate standing from each faction will end up comprising the two who go to the membership
There are 318 Conservative MPs. There were 62 signatories of the ERG letter, and even if we can round it up to 100 Leaver MPs, they are still outnumbered 2-1. They do not have the strength to crow-bar Gove into the final two.
130 Tory MPs voted Leave, well over a third of the 318 total and the 106 MPs needed to ensure a candidate in the final two sent to Tory members
Yes but how many feel strongly enough to let it override other concerns? The 62 on the letter rounded up to 100 looks right. The numbers aren't there to force a dogmatic Brexiteer onto the ballot. Hunt and Javid are lukewarm leavers which will be enough for some.
If even Leadsom could get to the final two, Boris, Gove or Mogg certainly will
Mogg won't stand. Boris will be forced to withdraw. Gove won't have the numbers because he has pissed off too many people in the past, even if JRM can deliver the ERG for him. Remember, Leadsom beat Gove and Boris last time!
Boris will stand this time and Gove will likely back him, if though Boris does not stand Mogg will instead. Plus Gove came third after Leadsom, 2/3 of the top 3 were Leavers
Gove didn't think that Boris was up to the job last time, what has changed?
May and Leadsom will be gone, though it is possible Gove could back Javid he will want to ensure he backs the winner
The key for the Tories is to find someone who dors not keep the current Labour voting coalition together. Gove will, Johnson will, Hunt will, Rees Mogg will. Javid is unknown, so might not. Better, though, would be to find a newer face. But that would require May to bring a few into the Cabinet, which means firing some people. And she is in too weak a position to do that.
Johnson twice built a coalition to beat Ken Livingstone in London even if the left hated him and the UK as a whole is more Tory and pro Brexit than London
Things have changed a bit since 2012. Johnson does not help the Tories win the seats from Labour they need for a majority because he keeps the current Labour voting coalition together.
I could see a Johnson led Tories winning Peterborough, Barrow, Dudley North, Newcastle under Lyme, Crewe and Nantwich, Kensington etc ie enough Labour seats with small majorities (which mostly voted Leave) for a small Tory majority
The biggest change from 2012 is that Boris is probably the candidate Labour would most like to face at the next GE. They used to worry about him. Not anymore.
Don't know where you get that from, Gove is the candidate Labour most want to face followed by Hunt
I get that from being a member of the Labour party and talking to other Labour members. Johnson would fire people up and unite the party like no-one else. He’d motivate them to go out and campaign. He makes Corbyn seem less of a burden. That said, they’d certainly be very happy with Gove and Hunt, too; which takes us back to my initial point.
Johnson at least fires up the Tory base unlike Hunt and is still less toxic than Gove
"Paul Johnson, director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, told Sky News that the prime minister's proposal was flawed because the "Brexit dividend" did not exist.
"In the short run, arithmetically there isn't because we're going to continue giving money to the EU and spending money on farmers and so on through to 2023 - there's literally no money there," he said.
"In the longer run, the government has accepted that the economy will be smaller and and tax revenues will be lower as a result of Brexit."
"Paul Johnson, director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, told Sky News that the prime minister's proposal was flawed because the "Brexit dividend" did not exist.
"In the short run, arithmetically there isn't because we're going to continue giving money to the EU and spending money on farmers and so on through to 2023 - there's literally no money there," he said.
"In the longer run, the government has accepted that the economy will be smaller and and tax revenues will be lower as a result of Brexit."
Off Topic - Somebody correct me if i'm wrong, but given this weekends results it looks like England would be better off coming 2nd in their group and then avoiding either Brazil/Germany in the QF's. Could make the England v Belgium game an interesting match...
I had same thought.
The problem is the last 16 match. You wouldn't want to go into a game against Columbia, Senegal or Poland having deliberately finished second.
The evidence is that the event happened and went fairly well and that they are planning to do it next year and will be more confident know they now they can pull it off. You may not like the evidence but that is a completely different matter.
I answered that in the previous one, political. The currency Labour are ultimately after is votes.
And how did it garner votes, except from those who are already part of the cult? In fact, that sort of event might actually drive away other would-be Labour voters.
It's not a case of whether I like the 'evidence' or not; it's that you're incapable of producing any aside from vague hand-wavium. If something is, as you claim, 'actually pretty successful', I'd expect you to have criteria to judge it against.
Much like Corbyn's campaigning before the election, entirely useless as only cultists would go and see him and talk right?
I realise some struggle with the modern world but we have mass communication tools these days.
Unsurprisingly this doesn't appeal to you but I don't think men droning on about cultists is really Labour's target market to start with, I imagine you similarly decided you didn't like Labour general election offering, which wasn't really an issue then either. It may have escaped your attention but Labour's offer was actually quite popular.
Again, you are not answering the question.
"I realise some struggle with the modern world "
LOL.As attempted digs go that's quite pathetic. I could say that excusers of anti-Semites, people who look back to the glory days of the 1970s and fans of Venezuelan-style government are struggling with the modern world. And that's many in the 'modern' Labour party.
"Labour's offer was actually quite popular."
They lost. Labour have to extend their offer to other people in order to win, and this event was just a bit of navel-gazing towards people who would already be voting for Labour. In fact, it might even put off some of the voters that might consider voting for them.
"Paul Johnson, director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, told Sky News that the prime minister's proposal was flawed because the "Brexit dividend" did not exist.
"In the short run, arithmetically there isn't because we're going to continue giving money to the EU and spending money on farmers and so on through to 2023 - there's literally no money there," he said.
"In the longer run, the government has accepted that the economy will be smaller and and tax revenues will be lower as a result of Brexit."
I'm sure a Leaver would win the membership vote, but I don't have the foggiest idea who that would be if it isn't Boris or Gove. Who are the other Leavers in the Cabinet? I assume that the Brexit Bulldog is too closely associated with the current negotiations to take over if a change is forced before we exit.
David Davis, Chris Grayling, Esther McVey, Penny Mordaunt, and the disgraced Liam Fox all backed Leave.
I suggest that makes Esther McVey the one to watch.
Esther McVey is romantically linked to Philip Davies, serial rebel and friend of bookies, FOBTs and Christopher Chope. That will not help her chances, fair or not.
Off Topic - Somebody correct me if i'm wrong, but given this weekends results it looks like England would be better off coming 2nd in their group and then avoiding either Brazil/Germany in the QF's. Could make the England v Belgium game an interesting match...
A cynic might say that the Brazil draw was a nice holding position to see whether they can avoid Germany in the next round.....
Javid or Hunt, probably the former, will likely be the Remainer candidates in the final two sent to the membership but if May is replaced the mood I get from Tory mbers is they now want a Leaver as leader unlike Remainer May so whichever of Boris, Gove or Mogg ends up in the last two has an excellent chance of winning the Tory membership vote and thus becoming Tory leader and PM.
I doubt the membership will get a vote. If they do, then like you I doubt there will be a true Brexiteer on the ballot paper: only Gove of the likely runners ticks that box, since Boris was only ever 50/50 (and won't stand as I predicted earlier in this thread) and Hunt's conversion came after the referendum.
The membership will go berserk if they do not get a vote this time so they will get one and given the Leave and Remain factions within the Tory Parliamentary Party will almost certainly refuse to give a candidate from the other faction a coronation, the last candidate standing from each faction will end up comprising the two who go to the membership
They do not have the strength to crow-bar Gove into the final two.
130 Tory MPs voted Leave, well over a third of the 318 total and the 106 MPs needed to ensure a candidate in the final two sent to Tory members
Yes but how many feel strongly enough to let it override other concerns? The 62 on the letter rounded up to 100 looks right. The numbers aren't there to force a dogmatic Brexiteer onto the ballot. Hunt and Javid are lukewarm leavers which will be enough for some.
If even Leadsom could get to the final two, Boris, Gove or Mogg certainly will
Mogg won't stand. Boris will be forced to withdraw. Gove won't have the numbers because he has pissed off too many people in the past, even if JRM can deliver the ERG for him. Remember, Leadsom beat Gove and Boris last time!
Boris will stand this time and Gove will likely back him, if though Boris does not stand Mogg will instead. Plus Gove came third after Leadsom, 2/3 of the top 3 were Leavers
Gove didn't think that Boris was up to the job last time, what has changed?
May and Leadsom will be gone, though it is possible Gove could back Javid he will want to ensure he backs the winner
So Gove thought Boris was worse than Leadsom, and yet you think he may back him this time? Really?
The evidence is that the event happened and went fairly well and that they are planning to do it next year and will be more confident know they now they can pull it off. You may not like the evidence but that is a completely different matter.
I answered that in the previous one, political. The currency Labour are ultimately after is votes.
And how did it garner votes, except from those who are already part of the cult? In fact, that sort of event might actually drive away other would-be Labour voters.
It's not a case of whether I like the 'evidence' or not; it's that you're incapable of producing any aside from vague hand-wavium. If something is, as you claim, 'actually pretty successful', I'd expect you to have criteria to judge it against.
Much like Corbyn's campaigning before the election, entirely useless as only cultists would go and see him and talk right?
I realise some struggle with the modern world but we have mass communication tools these days.
Unsurprisingly this doesn't appeal to you but I don't think men droning on about cultists is really Labour's target market to start with, I imagine you similarly decided you didn't like Labour general election offering, which wasn't really an issue then either. It may have escaped your attention but Labour's offer was actually quite popular.
Again, you are not answering the question.
"I realise some struggle with the modern world "
LOL.As attempted digs go that's quite pathetic. I could say that excusers of anti-Semites, people who look back to the glory days of the 1970s and fans of Venezuelan-style government are struggling with the modern world. And that's many in the 'modern' Labour party.
"Labour's offer was actually quite popular."
They lost. Labour have to extend their offer to other people in order to win, and this event was just a bit of navel-gazing towards people who would already be voting for Labour. In fact, it might even put off some of the voters that might consider voting for them.
I've set you off with the LOL's again haven't you, my apologies.
Yes and I could say Islamophobia, the 50's etc. but I would rather concentrate on the point we are supposed to be debating as opposed to your strange habit of declaring someone wrong and then just wanting to trade insults... almost as if you don't have an argument.
Unsurprisingly this doesn't appeal to you but I don't think men droning on about cultists is really Labour's target market to start with, I imagine you similarly decided you didn't like Labour general election offering.
We extended our offer to other people last time, that is why Labour had a bigger increase than the Tories in terms of votes.
"Paul Johnson, director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, told Sky News that the prime minister's proposal was flawed because the "Brexit dividend" did not exist.
"In the short run, arithmetically there isn't because we're going to continue giving money to the EU and spending money on farmers and so on through to 2023 - there's literally no money there," he said.
"In the longer run, the government has accepted that the economy will be smaller and and tax revenues will be lower as a result of Brexit."
Just a thought on welfare costs, given the record low unemployment in the cycle these should be at a minimum or so in the cycle, should they not :> ?
No, tax credits, housing benefits and state pensions are higher than ever. The UK welfare system is not fit for purpose.
Yes but unemplyment simply must start rising at some point (And all the associated welfare costs), so I'd argue we still must be reasonably close to a local minimum..
Just a thought on welfare costs, given the record low unemployment in the cycle these should be at a minimum or so in the cycle, should they not :> ?
No, tax credits, housing benefits and state pensions are higher than ever. The UK welfare system is not fit for purpose.
No the housing market is not fit for purpose. Almost all of this cash is going to put roofs over people's heads due to the crazy costs of renting and home ownership.
There’s a small part of Nick Clegg that gets it, unlike many of his fellow Remain co-travellers he is both perceptive and intelligent. He has also said the EU needs to become much more comfortable with national identity, which even Donald Tusk flirted with recently wrt. Serbia’s accession talks.
However, these are just words and are too little, too late. The EU could sink Brexit by removing a few of its federalist symbols with respect to the UK, and some sensible caveats/limits on free movement but it is unable or unwilling to see it, and just as theological about its “Project” as Nigel Farage is about total independence.
Just a thought on welfare costs, given the record low unemployment in the cycle these should be at a minimum or so in the cycle, should they not :> ?
No. As in work benefits can be more expensive for those working part time particularly our welfare bill is no longer responding positively to high employment. As Personal Allowances have been increased so significantly a substantial part of the new employment does not create additional tax either. Maybe a bit more NI.
Hopefully, the reverse is true and the loss of chunks of marginal employment won't do the level of damage we have seen in the past either.
I've set you off with the LOL's again haven't you, my apologies.
Yes and I could say Islamophobia, the 50's etc. but I would rather concentrate on the point we are supposed to be debating as opposed to your strange habit of declaring someone wrong and then just wanting to trade insults... almost as if you don't have an argument.
Unsurprisingly this doesn't appeal to you but I don't think men droning on about cultists is really Labour's target market to start with, I imagine you similarly decided you didn't like Labour general election offering.
We extended our offer to other people last time, that is why Labour had a bigger increase than the Tories in terms of votes.
Oh dear, you've got this strange obsession with 'LOL' again. It's quite simple: answer the question.
But I'm guessing you cannot. The question was, for those who are losing the will to live: what evidence do you have that the event was 'actually pretty successful' ? Because it seems all you have is faith that it was.
Yeh, and Hammond has been overruled by May, who has come down on Hunt on this one.
I suppose Hammond could resign, or more likely he will find some fudge in the numbers in the autumn.
Surely the way to square the circle is for allowance thresholds to remain static ? Fiscal drag then just does some of the lifting.
.. but not enough.
How about some welfare reform, that'll cost a bomb for about a decade Oh, wait.
Hopefully you understand what you wrote, because I don't. The money to fund the NHS has to come from somewhere, freezing thresholds won't do it
I'm agreeing. The largest slice of the spending pie is welfare of various forms, but I note the Tories have made a pig's ear of trying to reduce spend on that with the Universal Credit shambles. Past threshold freezing I don't see any more easy wins, even making NI fairer was ran away from by Hammond/May.
I don't believe for a moment that this increase can be paid for without tax increases. And you know what: I'm not necessarily against tax increases as long as they are sensibly spent.
Selling it as a 'Brexit dividend' is a politically convenient approach, and one that *may* work politically. But I'm unsure it takes us any further into a much-needed rational debate about taxation and spending ...
Yeh, and Hammond has been overruled by May, who has come down on Hunt on this one.
I suppose Hammond could resign, or more likely he will find some fudge in the numbers in the autumn.
Surely the way to square the circle is for allowance thresholds to remain static ? Fiscal drag then just does some of the lifting.
.. but not enough.
How about some welfare reform, that'll cost a bomb for about a decade Oh, wait.
Hopefully you understand what you wrote, because I don't. The money to fund the NHS has to come from somewhere, freezing thresholds won't do it
I'm agreeing. The largest slice of the spending pie is welfare of various forms, but I note the Tories have made a pig's ear of trying to reduce spend on that with the Universal Credit shambles. Past threshold freezing I don't see any more easy wins, even making NI fairer was ran away from by Hammond/May.
A LOT of money is needed for NHS/Social Care. Taxes and Trident are two possibilities, more austerity probably not.
30 races at Royal Ascot and a World Cup to bet on and some are obsessing about a contest in which we don't know the runners and riders yet.
So, moving massively OFF topic to something of more interest - England have three "styles" of World Cup campaign - the confident start which promises miracles and fades to nothing, the poor start which suddenly blossoms into a couple of world class performances before reality intrudes or the poor start which never gets going and it's an early flight home.
I don't know - I just can't see that squad producing two or three world class performances to get beyond the QF stage - they could do it once and just conceivably twice.
As for the most important sporting event of the week by a country mile, it's off to Berkshire and I don't know if Ascot racecourse is in Theresa May's constituency (HYUFD might be able to help me out) but HMQ will of course be present.
My Day 1 selections for the big races are:
2.30: LIGHTNING SPEAR (e/w) 3.45: LADY AURELIA 4.20: US NAVY FLAG (e/w)
Have a successful betting week all whatever markets you're playing.
The starts for England ,which was successfully were a draw 1966 winners and 1990 , semi finals..
They did get to the quarter finals in 1986 , after a defeat in the first match.
However the missed opportunity was in 1982 , when they started with a 3-1 win against France. Never lost a game . However went out , as it was a different format.
The difficulty with betting on the next Conservative leader is knowing if the MPs and then the Conservative members who make the choice will vote for the person they prefer or vote for the person they think the electorate prefer.
Gove is popular with members but not so much with the electorate. Rees-Mogg and Javid would be a gamble as regards public popularity. Javid more likely to gain popularity in the longer term.
Johnson has good recognition in public and can demonstrate his success being elected in a Labour heartland as London major.
Hunt likely to be seen as too managerial and Davidson as too whacky.
Leadsom and Raab too anonymous.
We should not forget though that it is the members who will decide from the final two on the MPs short list - not the public.
Yeh, and Hammond has been overruled by May, who has come down on Hunt on this one.
I suppose Hammond could resign, or more likely he will find some fudge in the numbers in the autumn.
Surely the way to square the circle is for allowance thresholds to remain static ? Fiscal drag then just does some of the lifting.
.. but not enough.
How about some welfare reform, that'll cost a bomb for about a decade Oh, wait.
Hopefully you understand what you wrote, because I don't. The money to fund the NHS has to come from somewhere, freezing thresholds won't do it
I'm agreeing. The largest slice of the spending pie is welfare of various forms, but I note the Tories have made a pig's ear of trying to reduce spend on that with the Universal Credit shambles. Past threshold freezing I don't see any more easy wins, even making NI fairer was ran away from by Hammond/May.
A LOT of money is needed for NHS/Social Care. Taxes and Trident are two possibilities, more austerity probably not.
The Conservatives will never lower spending on trident, it is #1 hobby horse.
Just a thought on welfare costs, given the record low unemployment in the cycle these should be at a minimum or so in the cycle, should they not :> ?
I think welfare spending (excl. pensions) has increased from c.£100bn in 2010 to a projected £110bn in 2019.
That’s probably a very modest fall in real terms.
Are we getting any closer - does ending the triple lock bring in any more cash for Hunt ?
Yes, a lot in fact, especially with inflation falling below the 3% triple lock minimum guarantee. CPI inflation rises would save the government a lot of money on the state pension. Shifting public sector pensions to CPI will also save a couple of billion per year and maybe a billion or so in not having to pay the employees while they go on strike.
Comments
See, for example, this coming Wednesday's votes.
She would be a tough opponent for Labour though and would certainly be more attractive to Labour voters than the other options.
Another question for you: what do you believe the purpose of the festival was?
I suspect he’d far rather be Chancellor for a year or so first, so he can establish a slightly different public persona.
30 races at Royal Ascot and a World Cup to bet on and some are obsessing about a contest in which we don't know the runners and riders yet.
So, moving massively OFF topic to something of more interest - England have three "styles" of World Cup campaign - the confident start which promises miracles and fades to nothing, the poor start which suddenly blossoms into a couple of world class performances before reality intrudes or the poor start which never gets going and it's an early flight home.
I don't know - I just can't see that squad producing two or three world class performances to get beyond the QF stage - they could do it once and just conceivably twice.
As for the most important sporting event of the week by a country mile, it's off to Berkshire and I don't know if Ascot racecourse is in Theresa May's constituency (HYUFD might be able to help me out) but HMQ will of course be present.
My Day 1 selections for the big races are:
2.30: LIGHTNING SPEAR (e/w)
3.45: LADY AURELIA
4.20: US NAVY FLAG (e/w)
Have a successful betting week all whatever markets you're playing.
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1008618673152626688
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1008618890946019328
Mr Soames told Eurosceptic Mr Afriyie: ‘You are a chateau bottled nuclear powered ****. You are totally f***ing disloyal, a f***ing disgrace to your party, your fellow MPs, your Prime Minister and your country.’
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2467597/You-chateau-bottled-nuclear-powered----Tory-grandee-Soames-launches-astonishing-tea-room-broadside-EU-referendum-rebel-Afriyie.html
Liverpool John Moores University -- alma mater of Juan Carlos Osorio, architect of Mexico's win over Germany.
https://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/football/news/meet-juan-carlos-osorio-mexico-12731868
I answered that in the previous one, political. The currency Labour are ultimately after is votes.
The Tories are not stupid. They have learnt this lesson from Jezza in 2017.
The question is: what did Jezza learn from 2017 ?
Penny Mordaunt then?
https://twitter.com/GrandPrixDiary/status/1008623863020818433
Swinson at blindside is the pick of a coach who doesn't give a fuck.
Dreamt up, presumably, by people who thought Obama would be the secret to a Remain win. Quell surprise.
It's not a case of whether I like the 'evidence' or not; it's that you're incapable of producing any aside from vague hand-wavium. If something is, as you claim, 'actually pretty successful', I'd expect you to have criteria to judge it against.
https://twitter.com/supermathskid/status/1008301071016644608
I realise some struggle with the modern world but we have mass communication tools these days.
Unsurprisingly this doesn't appeal to you but I don't think men droning on about cultists is really Labour's target market to start with, I imagine you similarly decided you didn't like Labour general election offering, which wasn't really an issue then either. It may have escaped your attention but Labour's offer was actually quite popular.
Perhaps she got dressed in a hurry........
https://twitter.com/Sonja_Drimmer/status/1008441986863464448
"In the short run, arithmetically there isn't because we're going to continue giving money to the EU and spending money on farmers and so on through to 2023 - there's literally no money there," he said.
"In the longer run, the government has accepted that the economy will be smaller and and tax revenues will be lower as a result of Brexit."
Earlier this year, Chancellor Phillip Hammond warned that public spending could not increase because Britain's economy was suffering due to uncertainty over Brexit."
https://news.sky.com/story/theresa-may-under-pressure-to-explain-20bn-nhs-funding-plan-11408253
She will be have to pretty agile to escape from that burning platform with any leadership hope intact.
I suppose Hammond could resign, or more likely he will find some fudge in the numbers in the autumn.
https://twitter.com/nigel_farage/status/1008275654545043456?s=21
Fiscal drag then just does some of the lifting.
"I realise some struggle with the modern world "
LOL.As attempted digs go that's quite pathetic. I could say that excusers of anti-Semites, people who look back to the glory days of the 1970s and fans of Venezuelan-style government are struggling with the modern world. And that's many in the 'modern' Labour party.
"Labour's offer was actually quite popular."
They lost. Labour have to extend their offer to other people in order to win, and this event was just a bit of navel-gazing towards people who would already be voting for Labour. In fact, it might even put off some of the voters that might consider voting for them.
Really?
I've read it several times and I *think* I understand what they're trying to get at.
Just terrible.
Yes and I could say Islamophobia, the 50's etc. but I would rather concentrate on the point we are supposed to be debating as opposed to your strange habit of declaring someone wrong and then just wanting to trade insults... almost as if you don't have an argument.
Unsurprisingly this doesn't appeal to you but I don't think men droning on about cultists is really Labour's target market to start with, I imagine you similarly decided you didn't like Labour general election offering.
We extended our offer to other people last time, that is why Labour had a bigger increase than the Tories in terms of votes.
However, these are just words and are too little, too late. The EU could sink Brexit by removing a few of its federalist symbols with respect to the UK, and some sensible caveats/limits on free movement but it is unable or unwilling to see it, and just as theological about its “Project” as Nigel Farage is about total independence.
Hopefully, the reverse is true and the loss of chunks of marginal employment won't do the level of damage we have seen in the past either.
But I'm guessing you cannot. The question was, for those who are losing the will to live: what evidence do you have that the event was 'actually pretty successful' ? Because it seems all you have is faith that it was.
How did Marr let May get away with an announcement with a£25Bn black hole?
Oh he is a Tory.
The money to fund the NHS has to come from somewhere, freezing thresholds won't do it
That’s probably a very modest fall in real terms.
Past threshold freezing I don't see any more easy wins, even making NI fairer was ran away from by Hammond/May.
Selling it as a 'Brexit dividend' is a politically convenient approach, and one that *may* work politically. But I'm unsure it takes us any further into a much-needed rational debate about taxation and spending ...
They did get to the quarter finals in 1986 , after a defeat in the first match.
However the missed opportunity was in 1982 , when they started with a 3-1 win against France.
Never lost a game .
However went out , as it was a different format.
Gove is popular with members but not so much with the electorate. Rees-Mogg and Javid would be a gamble as regards public popularity. Javid more likely to gain popularity in the longer term.
Johnson has good recognition in public and can demonstrate his success being elected in a Labour heartland as London major.
Hunt likely to be seen as too managerial and Davidson as too whacky.
Leadsom and Raab too anonymous.
We should not forget though that it is the members who will decide from the final two on the MPs short list - not the public.