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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Lewisham East: Five take aways
The result is almost exactly in line with the LDs canvas projection issued on Monday afternoon. This had LAB 49, LD 25, CON 17. https://t.co/zTGmdohYEq
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The fact is however that it wasn't a 'strong' second but even allowing for Labour's drop in support it was a 'distant' second. They got less than half of Labour's share.
Oh and the BBC have messed up. Their report says the Yellw vote is up 20% when it's actually up 20 points!
After all we've been repeatedly assured this bus ad was the only reason leave won, so a reverse ferret will surely be inspired by aping their tactics.
On topic
@Torby_Fennel in the previous thread pointed out that if (IFFFFF) this is an indication of Lab Remain voters’ dissatisfaction and hence abandonment of Corbyn’s Lab over the EU then the next few months should be quite interesting within the Labour Party. If it knows what’s good for it.
Different kettle of monkeys in a blue-held seat as the Conservatives are the party of government.
Be interesting to see if Dr Sarah Wollaston gets peeled away from the headcase Remainers, given she jumped ship from Brexit because of the numbers on the bus.....
(The only really, really annoying thing is why this wasn't said a year ago, during the election campaign. As some of us were urging at the time. Tory majority nailed on....)
Job done for Labour, lds content, tories not destroyed but presumably not happy to drop down to third.
First steps on the ladder, yes, but it does also show how many rungs there still are for the LibDems to climb.
The most telling of Mike’s conclusions is “ maybe we are overstating the impact on brexit on party allegiances.”
Remarkable, really, because both parties contain people who seem to loathe each other, but somehow the parties struggle on as viable entities.
It’s just code for those who want a re-run because they disagree with the result.
I also get the impression that the LDs do more old style knock-on-every door canvassing, whereas the larger parties now have various ways of trying to focus on actual and potential supporters only. The latter is more time efficient but doesn't give you a representative sample to work from.
Granted it's not my party, and I see nothing odd about a party's membership perhaps finding it easier to find common ground with specific party a rather than party b, but I dislike the term for one because progressive is ill defined, and for two because it seems presumptive, expecting a party like the lds to fall in line, when the very fact of being their own party means they should have no as automatic expectation to aid party a, even if they have no shot themselves.
Doing nothing to dispel the notion that the young can't be arsed with politics....
Everyone watch out for Labour saying it's too late, only done because of their pressure, and they would put yet more in above this anyway.
When you hang around in the single digits nationally what counts as an encouraging sign is proportionate to that position.
While we view everything from the Brexit bubble, Europe is changing before us.
Time to Remain and shape this continent! :-)
https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article177597466/Presseschau-zum-Asylstreit-Angela-Merkels-Macht-existiert-derzeit-nur-noch-auf-dem-Papier.html
If you are a Remainer who would you vote for out of Labour or Tory? Until last week there was sufficient ambiguity to go for Labour. Now I can't see any and it looks like the voters of Lewisham agree. They have tossed away their priceless USP
I heard John McDonnell saying how difficult it was for Labour to ride two horses without bifurcating itself. For once he was correct and now they're well and truly bifurcated.
@kle4 analogy rating pls
I certainly wouldn't want to discourage anyone from starting a new party, or denigrate their effort, but it must be dispiriting even for a new, small party to get so few votes.
I would say a few things.
Firstly, fighting campaigns is like any other form of exercise. You get fitter and better at it. Your activists learn from those more experienced and, hopefully, catch the bug. Having activists in London is never going to go to waste.
Secondly, it gets the Lib Dem’s noticed again, even briefly. They have found that really hard in this Parliament with small numbers and a less than charismatic leader. If they are going to make a recovery they need to take every opportunity to increase their profile.
Thirdly, it suggests to me that there is still votes in their strongly pro EU positioning. Not overwhelming numbers but votes none the less. As Brexit becomes a slightly boring reality this may diminish but it is likely to be a useful factor at the next GE, if not the one after.
I think the beeb is downplaying the problems the CSU boss Seehofer is having with his party. Bavaria has borne the brunt of the Merkel created asylum crisis and the CSU is watching its support drift away to the AfD. Seehofer's job is on the line and he has very little room for manoeuvre. Merkel has rejected every proposed compromise. Over the border the Austrians are telling the CSU to push a hard line on immigration much as they are doing, so Seehofer is between a rock and a hard place.
Klee?
It might be more like someone stubbornly refusing assistance from someone they don't like, perhaps with good reason, even though it will get the job done better and faster.
We might be shooting ourselves in the foot but there's no need for them to trip over their own feet into a river from laughter.
But enough levuty, it's off to work time.
Labour on -17% though saw an even bigger decline than the -15% the Tories saw in Witney and the -13% Zac Goldsmith saw in Richmond Park. The Tories were clearly squeezed in Lewisham and down 8% which was worse than the 2% Labour fall in Witney and actually about the same as the -8.6% Labour decline in Richmond Park (though the Tories got a higher absolute number of votes in Lewisham East than Labour did then)
As in this country Immigration is the sort of visceral issue that can blow this apart. There may be some grandstanding but this coalition is under more strain than it has been for decades.
So basically similies like the above can just be spun however you like, so it's pointless.
Guido has a rather amusing article on the number of tickets for Labour live that have been given to Trotsky, Tony Blair etc.
Oh yes and Matt's cartoon is priceless today
However, White Elephants need food, and there is money to be made in the feeding.
So naturally enough, there are people anxious to ensure feeding time continues.
I heard the Remainers chortling with glee about doing over David Davis et al. Yet now it appears they're outraged about being conned themselves. Who's been done up like a kipper now? The Kippers or the Remainers?
I can understand that a 95 yr old could vote for them ,or even stand of course, but standing as a candidate might prove tricky in practice if you’re past the first flush.
The fact that at least one of the remainers is now blaming DD just might be indicative of the reality that the votes this week have considerably strengthened May’s position. She has got her way and with a fair degree of comfort. It’s on to the Heads of State summit now.
duff election
weak coalition
Europe = Italy, Austria, Brexit,
Immigration crises - bribes, integration, AfD, CSU
Diesel scandal -Daimler were forced to recall 772,00 cars last week
Trump
and now just possibly the economy is about to slow down
There's also the Susanna F affair - young girl murdered by an Iraqi migrant and authorities let him fly home - which gets no reporting here but has filled the German media for the last couple of weeks. English summary below but cant find any article in UK press.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/community-shocked-aghast-after-german-jewish-teen-found-raped-murdered/
It all gives the impression Merkel is losing her grip. As Ive said before who goes first Merkel or May is a fun bet.
If Germany go out in the first round of the World Cup she's toast :-)
Well in yours, I think you'll find that it all depends on what was in the partnership agreement. If it said if you leave and get zilch, then zilch you get. The EU would be treating us like a Third Country as per, er, the agreement.
I'll try again...
Before yesterday we needed a 32 point swing to take the seat. Now we only need a 13 point swing to take it. By any objective measure we've got closer.
IQs have been dropping since 1975, the young and gullible vote is up for grabs !!!
And you know where that got you last time, don't you. That's right - into government.
How do we know that it was the real canvass return and not expectations management ?
Is it having a law degree? Are these poor people naturally susceptible? Should they all receive prophylactic counselling? Ken still appears logical but is he merely hiding it well? Is there any cure?
The three-time Wimbledon winner claims his appointment as a diplomat by the Central African Republic affords him protection from any legal claims.
Mr Becker was declared bankrupt in 2017 over money owed to private bank Arbuthnot Latham. He is now being pursued for "further assets".
His defence has been lodged in the High Court.
The Central African Republic made Mr Becker a sport and culture attache to the EU in April 2018. '
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-44489798
Sheffield, Hallam
Leeds NW
Bermondsey & Old Southwark
Cambridge
Portsmouth South (from 3rd)
Vauxhall
Burnley (from 3rd)
and Birmingham Yardley would be a close run thing.
But no need to get excited as they're only prole jobs in prole towns:
' About 60 bank branches are closing every month with RBS shutting the most, consumer group Which? has warned.
It found that 2,868 branches will have closed between 2015 and the end of 2018, with the number accelerating this year. '
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-44483304
If you want to spend your time campaigning for a minor party, that’s clearly your choice. It’s other people’s choice to point out that this is probably a waste of your time and energy using the evidence available.
The English football team visited an orphanage in Russia yesterday. "It was heart breaking to see their little faces with no hope," said Vladimir, aged six.