Categories
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Threatened women live longest. Bet against Theresa May going q
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Threatened women live longest. Bet against Theresa May going quickly
We read in the weekend papers that the Brexiters within the Conservative party are mustering for an attempt in July to despatch Theresa May, once Royal Assent has been received to the withdrawal bill. Sources close to David Davis and Jacob Rees-Mogg are covering their retreat in the face of the Prime Minister’s obduracy over future customs arrangements with the EU with a hail of Parthian shots. Her opponents already have 42 MPs ready to lodge letters for a vote of no confidence, we are told. 48 would mean that a vote would be held. We are told to expect an “almighty reckoning”.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
Very good piece Alastair. I agree that the mechanism makes it more difficult to replace Mrs May than many think.
There’s also the issue of timing. There would be a clamour from the membership to have the say in the new leader, which they were denied last time when Mrs Leadsom withdrew, so the contest will take take a couple of months in practice at a time when the A50 clock is running down.
The MPs would be acutely aware of how this looks, so may hold off a challenge in order to see the Brexit legislation through Parliament - probably with a fair amount of fudge as we saw yesterday.
Also agree about JRM. I’m still not sure that he’s either actually interested in standing, nor has the support of close to a third of MPs required to get on the members’ ballot.
I’m not convinced about the timing argument; if there were a candidate to replace her with acknowledged leadership skills, I think it would happen anyway. May’s constrant prevarication is running down the A50 clock in very much the same way, so that argument is moot.
There is no alternative in the cabinet with a real prospect of making enough those on both sides of the Brexit schism think the gamble might just be worth it. The team of mediocrities is what will save her for now.
TBH, when Cameron lost the referendum and ran away there wasn’t anyone else in the cabinet except GO who could have realistically stood..... yes I know Leadsom did........ everyone else would have been too divisive, and, in retrospect, for a few months she was 'just about managing’.
It was changing her moind about last year’s election which really did for her.
He was wrong...
But having inherited (and that is not quite the right word since she had to stand and fight for the leadership) Cameron's unholy mess, what on Earth possessed Theresa May to trigger Article 50 and start the countdown on her road to nowhere?
Be interesting just when, and how, May does eventually go.
Of course much of Alastair’s logic applies there too and they may fear the election of someone even less sympathetic to their position. But can you really run the most important negotiation in some considerable time with someone you can’t trust at the wheel?
For someone who shows so little idea of what they want she seems to upset a dangerous number of people.
Also if, as rumoured, No. 10 have only got through this by promising completely contradictory things to the rebels on one hand and the Brexit ultras on the other, there has to be a risk of whichever side is the loser when the Lords amendments return to the Commons voting wholesale against the government. Only the pro-EU rebels have the numbers to defeat May (with Labour support) but could her leadership survive a rebellion of >100 Tory MPs and reliance on the opposition?
The absurdity of the situation is that it has felt like the point of no return, it-can’t-get-any-worse crisis has been reached almost everyday since July 2016 but May still staggers on... so really, who knows?
Time to take Voltaire's advice. She has no disruptive Remainers in Cabinet so if she wants to take control it's got to be Boris. With the looming figures of Corbyn and McDonnell waiting in the wings there's nowhere for the Uber-Leavers to go,
Making contradictory promises can never end well. Not only will both sides be suspicious of future promises but as both cannot be satisfied, one will be in revenge mode.
One way forward would be to sack one of the promise-makers....... surely the Chief Whip couldn’t have said A to one group and a contradictory B to another !
1. No consensus possible in cabinet.
2. No consensus possible in parliament
3. FTPA and Tory MP cowardice/party before country means replacement PM highly unlikely
4. Deadlock in the polls so new General Election likely to elect the same mess of MPs
5. 3rd referendum - assuming it was passed by parliament as the ultimate "hail Mary" hospital pass back to the electorate - unlikely to change the "will of the people".
Its perfectly possible to endure such a crisis - you just suspend government for a while. As we have had in Belgium, Italy and Spain. But uniquely we are on the clock, with the time ticking away towards the Article 50 deadline. And having triggered it we leave the EU at the end of March.
Not getting a deal (or an agreement as to what deal we wanted) doesn't preclude our leaving with no deal and no transition period. We leave regardless unless the Commission and the UK agree to extend the 2 years. Even assuming the Commission decide to pity us and offer it, would this government and this parliament be able to agree to accept?
The post about potential civil unrest is right. If we don't crash out the leavers will be out en masse demanding the head of MPs who blocked the "will of the people". If we do crash out the people losing their jobs, outraged at price rises and product shortages will be out en masse, demanding the head of MPs who lied to them as "where's the better deal we were promised"
Fun times...
But now she is deceiving her own MPs, which is far more serious than being weak. Leavers and remainers cannot trust what she says to them now..
Perhaps the factional problems of the party will still see her survive for now, but it will be interesting to see what happens if the Lords send their amendments back again. Why would a potential rebel not rebel in that situation.
https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2018/06/the-water-gets-hotter-the-frog-sinks-lower.html
No deal or no Brexit I put as the most likely scenario, the former much more likely than the latter, but the latter more probable than any deal.
The House of Lords has not just been trying to get its flavour of Brexit, it’s being trying to block it. Their legitimacy to exist and pass laws on our behalf is getting thinner.
May bought a few days of time by, it appears, persuading Grieve rebels that they could trust her to do something meaningful with amendments. The Brexiteers seem to believe otherwise. The Lords will probably stick their stuff back in anyway.
We will be back in the HoC next week for a rerun.
The only thing that might cause the EU to hesitate about such a thing is there would be a significant negative impact for them as well. For a start, if they are serious about their threat on flights, any transatlantic flights in British airspace would have to be cancelled, and their banks would suddenly lose access to the London financial markets which might easily cause a bank run in Spain.
They would also lose their however many billion and probably their Commission president (so some good news at least although his term ends next year anyway)!
Otherwise, they seem blithely determined to plough on their merry way whatever the consequences.
The 'will of the people' doesn't need to change by much to give a completely different result. Now they'll know what they are voting for, which may well be:
a. WTO crash out.
b. BINO
c. Stay in EU
She was weak and indecisive in the face of a very difficult situation before, but now she is accused of being one step removed from being an outright liar, and there is no way to square the circle between what the Remainer rebels think she promised and what the Brexiter agitators think.
The latter were already saying she is toast so we're planning to oust her anyway, but the former now have little reason to fight that.
Parliament will ably assist May to kick the can down the road further by aborting A50.
The EU may not agree or it may just kick the issue to the courts to decide the legality of delaying an already triggered A50.
Brexiteers will go off the wall with rage and attempt to bring down the Gov and force a GE.
I find it difficult to believe this morning that the Tories aren't heading rapidly to a Corn Laws style split. But then again they are almost always the ultimate power seekers and pragmatists, so maybe this is to overblow things.
The problem is that to do so we would need to set in place the physical and human infrastructure to have a hard border and then reconfigure our economy to cope with the logiatics delays / paperwork "red tape" explosion. And we dont have time.
Which ultimately means a game of who blinks first. Yes a crash brexit would be disruptive to the EU. Or at least elements of it - but a lot of members wouldn't be drastically hit and they are a lot bigger tgan we are. The commission will have to balance this out against the threat to the whole project from other rebellions in other member states where rumblings about membership are already there.
A crash brexit next March wouldn't be good for the EU. But it would be catastrophic for us. The people expecting a 23:59 blink from the EU are gambling a huge amount against a hunch. And doing so from the delusional position that their dogmatic position on how trade works is more informed than the fact based reality expressed by everyone who actually trades. Which from the supposed party of free enterprise and free trade is something to behold. When it transpires that the people who trade knew what they were talkinh about after all, how will the Tory party every rebuild its reputation? The ToryKIP wing of the party will be dead soon, but the damage will live longer...
That's the key reason we're in this mess, and while May was unwise to not have a contingency plan it's somewhat unfair to blame her for the EU's persistent intransigence and failure to follow its own rules (although admittedly the latter could and should have been foreseen given that Juncker, Barnier and Selmayr were involved).
Lots of straight lines. Power will be the prime determining factor. Most corners appear slow too with a few middling speed (I'd guess) in the third sector.
Essentially, horsepower will pave the way to victory. However, worth noting that it may well be hard on brakes because of that. I wonder if that will cause problems for Leclerc. He had a brake failure in Monaco, and some problems in Canada.
Overtaking should be possible, but we thought that'd be the case in Canada and cars ended up mostly with big gaps between them.
Some time off, but the Marseilles forecast is for it to be totally dry and sunny.
It is very difficult to see how May can kick this can any further down the road next week.
She will have to choose, unless we are missing some incredible rabbit out of a hat.
Not that I want to see the Eurozone collapse but they're doing their damndest to make it happen.
Anyway, I have to get to work. Have a good morning.
It is a price worth paying (£10) to reclaim our heritage.
https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1006788342028165121
One thing that's impressive is that May has managed to keep as many people in the tent as she has, particularly given she's dealing with people like David Davis who resigned over government policy when his part wasn't even in the government.
If it’s clear that no such deal is possible, the UK Gov need to stop talking about Brexit and devote every resource to planning for it. Specifically things like aviation and food supplies, alongside politically popular ideas such as cutting VAT on fuel and tampons, with extended temporary government support for key industries using the £39bn we have to play with.
Once we actually leave, we can then take stock of where we are, both sides can see the advantages and disadvantages of getting back around the table and things will likely progress in the spirit of co-operation - rather than the antagonistic approach being taken currently.
They'll probably open additional uk factories so that they can exploit our new trading deal with India
Asked by a reporter what he’ll do if Kim “doesn’t follow through” on his promises, Trump openly admitted that he’ll never admit he was wrong, but will instead obfuscate.
“Honestly, I think he’s going to do these things. I may be wrong,” Trump said. “I may stand before you in six months and say, ‘hey, I was wrong.’ I don’t know that I’ll admit that but I’ll find some kind of an excuse.”
https://thinkprogress.org/trump-kim-jong-un-will-not-admit-he-was-wrong-north-korea-0ab585d8de91/?utm_source=quora&utm_medium=referral
First, an influential section of the British opinion formers decided for whatever reason that the EU was a Bad Idea, and indeed demonised it..... straight bananas and so on.
Then someone with, to be fair, a bit of charisma and the time and the money decided to ride a hobby horse about it. That gave an impetus to UKIP who were felt by many to be a sort of unholy alliance of the BNP and the 50’s League of Empire Loyalists, and at a time of economic difficulty were able, with the support of some parts of the press, to create a vision of 'being what we once were.’
Add to that a gross mishandling of the right to Freedom of Movement by the Blair government and suddenly a number of people speaking East European languages appeared in many tiowns, often doing jobs that the .locals didn’t want but sometimes at lower rates, and dare I say it, more reliably than the locals. This was exacerbated by some large employers deliberately recruiting in East Europe to put pressure on British wages, and by a feeling that large parts of our Northern towns didn’t look English (used deliberately) any more.
Then, as a result of this combination of circumstances the British elected as nasty a set of 'high on expenses’ layabouts as MEP’s from one party as could be imagined.
Following that the British PM arrived, announcing that he’d promised a referendum, as Britain felt it wasn’t being treated right (or something) and wanted a renegotiation.
This was after we’d been on the majority side in most EU decisions, obtained some pretty hefty grants to support various British activities, and been involved in one or two well-publicised spats.
Why should ‘they' bend over backwards for us. I wouldn’t be surprised if in some quarters there isn’t a sense of relief that we’re off and this quarrelsome, disruptive nation won’t be a prt of the EU any more.
Outrageous optimism. Project Complacency in full swing
Coupled with the fact Rees Mogg consistently leads every Conservative Home poll as to who Tory members want to succeed May most Tory MPs will not remove nurse for fear of something worse especially as the Tories still lead most polls and there is no need to
She has been a loyal Conservative all her life. For her, a confidence vote being called would be a failure regardless of the outcome. I agree she’d very probably win it, but the last thing she wants to do is to use it to factionalise and isolate one wing of the Tories again and work with other parties in the house to pass Brexit. That’s not who she is or how she thinks, even if others around her do.
Therefore, expect supreme efforts from her to keep everyone on board under all circumstances. Personally, I think she’d be happy to have as much detail as possible deferred to GE2022 so the Tory party can fight and win that in one piece. It’s only 4 years away, and a lot of the new customs and agriculture policies won’t take effect until afterward, so it’s not a fanciful goal either.
The moment she became PM what did she do, she fired four people who had clashed with her previously.
Gove, Raab, Osborne, and Vaizey.
She told the Brexiteers she would make no commitments... and didn’t
She told the Remainers that they would “continue discussions” but that they should “trust her” on the outcome
Standard crappy management technique
Only works if your subordinants don’t talk to each other (or the media)
Last time my strategy returned a four figure profit.
They should back and/or tweak the government amendment but not directly frustrate the Commons will
I think everyone can agree that we really don’t want to see Farage back.
If they do then we shouldn’t be part of that organisation
Very poor judgement.
But now to work.
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/05/28/britain-open-skies-deal-us-due-summer-negotiators-agree-key/amp/
What would be a major seismic event?
1. Mrs May resigns - ill health or impossible position.
2. Mrs May finally loses patience and shows decisive leadership, firing some members of her cabinet and revises her red lines.
3. A number of Remain ministers resign and join a large cross party group (40+ Tories plus opposition parties) to form a temporary national government to avoid the cliff edge.
4. Any other possible game changing event?
I would also suggest each side make the negatives of their preferred option very very clear as well, if this was followed, because the thing about winning is you have to take the consequences.
And if you lie to win, you will be caught in your lie.
Referendum 1:
Now that the potential Brexit destinations are more clear, and there is no time to pursue a bespoke deal, what should the UK pursue?
- Exit to WTO
- Exit to EEA
- Remain in EU
If no option gets over 50%, there is a follow-up referendum with only the top two options.
The key to doing this (and the reason it will never happen) is for every side to be more honest - otherwise we get the issue that the electorate isn't responsible for the consequences as those who were responsible lied to them. Again.
That’s not the same thing as wanting to isolate a whole wing of the party.
She isn’t Osborne.
You and I both know Brexit would be going a lot better if she had made Michael Gove Brexit Secretary.
"It will leave many people disillusioned with politics (many are already) and voter turnout is likely to go down (why bother they'll say). And that will be that. Threats of civil unrest are empty."
You don't continue, but if you did, I hear a hint of "a price worth paying." I hope that isn't the case. Trust removed doesn't return easily or quickly. And I fear you may be underestimating the consequences. Farage would be the least of your problems.
Brexit is not the Alpha and Omega of UK politics.
Could you tell me what the actual Remain/Leave split was in the Parliamentary Party, as opposed to the loyalty to the incumbent leader?
I think most Tory MPs simply want the issue to go away. They're not going to split the party over it.