One thing for May is you cannot say she is not one step ahead of the rebels, like John Major she has perfected the art of telling Eurosceptics she is on their side while also assuring Europhiles she wants to remain in the EU. Major pulled it off for 7 years
How did that end for the Conservative Party?
Well Major won a historic 4th majority term in government not achieved by any party in over a century (OK he lost to Blair in 1997 when Labour won at their fifth attempt but even had Jesus Christ been Tory leader he would have lost that election)
I’m told JC was a socialist, like his modern-day initialsake. But being inexpert in religion, I am not qualified to comment.
I see Laura K reckons the Lords are just going to send their amendments back for another round of ping pong in any case. Given May has either deceived her MPs to win the vote, or a bunch think she has deceived them to do so, I'd guess the chance of the Lords daring the Commons to overturn them twice has increased.
What on earth is she doing? If it becomes clear she has misled people the Lords will overturn this again and it will be back in the Commons. This is crazy. Losing would have been better than this.
One thing for May is you cannot say she is not one step ahead of the rebels, like John Major she has perfected the art of telling Eurosceptics she is on their side while also assuring Europhiles she wants to remain in the EU. Major pulled it off for 7 years
How did that end for the Conservative Party?
Well Major won a historic 4th majority term in government not achieved by any party in over a century (OK he lost to Blair in 1997 when Labour won at their fifth attempt but even had Jesus Christ been Tory leader he would have lost that election)
I’m told JC was a socialist, like his modern-day initialsake. But being inexpert in religion, I am not qualified to comment.
Though Mrs Thatcher was rather fond of quoting 'the parable of the talents' and 'the good samaritan'.
The original JC (not the fake Labour tribute act) was also a social conservative, if a forgiving one
What on earth is she doing? If it becomes clear she has misled people the Lords will overturn this again and it will be back in the Commons. This is crazy. Losing would have been better than this.
She's just surviving day to day and hour to hour at the moment...
I have wondered aloud whether Vince Cable represented slight value for covering in the next PM market at 125/1: last I saw be is in to 100/1. Select committee chairs look in partp like a cabinet in writing. You may count that as one of my pet theories on the edge of sanity, if you wish.
I think @Barnesian said he had a little bit of money on Cable for that reason. I am also tempted.
A unity government of EU-tolerant centrists is not a ridiculous way out of this mess when the sh*t hits the fan; Cable has Government experience and, as a figurehead PM, would not be unthinkable to either main party.
What on earth is she doing? If it becomes clear she has misled people the Lords will overturn this again and it will be back in the Commons. This is crazy. Losing would have been better than this.
In part it is the folly of curtailed debate. If they had adjourned for a day to allow discussion and properly drafted and altered ammendments, then it would have likely have passed and stuck.
May's problem is using Henry VIII powers with the political skill of Edward II.
This is a full John Major isn't it? He always completely agreed with both sides of the European debate within the Tory party.
And he was the longest serving Tory PM in the last 28 years
Its hardly a stunning track record, IIRC his last 24 months were pretty hard going both for him & the Party - the only real achievement I can think of was rail privatisation in that period...oh and the cones hotline
What on earth is she doing? If it becomes clear she has misled people the Lords will overturn this again and it will be back in the Commons. This is crazy. Losing would have been better than this.
It’s like the film Gaslight. She’s set out to make everyone doubt their own sanity until they no longer know what is real.
This is a full John Major isn't it? He always completely agreed with both sides of the European debate within the Tory party.
And he was the longest serving Tory PM in the last 28 years
Its hardly a stunning track record, IIRC his last 24 months were pretty hard going both for him & the Party - the only real achievement I can think of was rail privatisation in that period...oh and the cones hotline
Major left a growing economy, low inflation and relatively balanced finances and in 1990 led a successful international coalition in the Gulf War with Bush Snr and also prevented the Europe issue exploding as it has now.
In my mind and in retrospect Major is our 4th best postwar PM after Thatcher, Attlee and Macmillan
Indeed, I'd go further and say that 80% of all economic growth is probably demographic related. Basically, countries do well when dependency ratios are falling, and do badly when they're rising.
I'd say much of growth over the last two centuries in the West (and more recently in China) has been from people moving from agricultural employment to manufacturing and service employment ie up the value chain.
What on earth is she doing? If it becomes clear she has misled people the Lords will overturn this again and it will be back in the Commons. This is crazy. Losing would have been better than this.
She's just surviving day to day and hour to hour at the moment...
PS - this might explain why, to me, walking around the place, London still feels like a huge boomtown. Seething with people, dynamism and ideas, and far livelier and more inventive than any other great European city.
That said there are more ominous, distant signs, euro-clearing moving to Frankfurt, etc.
We shall see.
The final paragraph of that article is key:
“With world-class universities and a diverse international talent pool, London is a centre for creative energy and innovation.”
This takes us back to perhaps the best piece ever published on PB:
A government that wants to reduce net immigration to 100,000 a year, and that refuses visas to doctors we desperately need, has to come up with a post-Brexit immigration that keeps the talent flowing in.
You know which part of the UK has the highest unemployment ?
' For the three months ending April 2018, the highest unemployment rate in the UK was in London (5.2%) and the lowest was in Northern Ireland and the South West (both 3.3%). '
Indeed, I'd go further and say that 80% of all economic growth is probably demographic related. Basically, countries do well when dependency ratios are falling, and do badly when they're rising.
I'd say much of growth over the last two centuries in the West (and more recently in China) has been from people moving from agricultural employment to manufacturing and service employment ie up the value chain.
Indeed, I'd go further and say that 80% of all economic growth is probably demographic related. Basically, countries do well when dependency ratios are falling, and do badly when they're rising.
I'd say much of growth over the last two centuries in the West (and more recently in China) has been from people moving from agricultural employment to manufacturing and service employment ie up the value chain.
I agree. Although demographics clearly play a part China in particular has overcome that by the movement of millions to the City to increase industrial output, just as we did in the Industrial Revolution. So you can cheat the limitations for a time, a considerable time in their case.
Or maybe a combination of all three... I don't think we have time to wait for boundary changes.
This mess is starting to get serious now...
I think you're right... and, worse, I can't think of anything that will prevent B ) or C). A general election won't alter the fundamental situation that the country is bitterly divided down the middle and opinion hasn't shifted in either direction in the past 2 years... well, except for positions on both sides hardening and a decrease in each side's willingness to listen or try to understand the other.
This website is a safe space for us all to debate the issues... in real life it's so much harder. I know where most of my friends and family stand on the Brexiteer/Remainer scale and I now choose not to even talk about the topic with those of them who are on the opposite side to me - it's not worth the hassle and I'm certain they feel the same way. I think this scenario is playing out all over the country as we all edge away from engaging with the other side and just discuss the issues with those who agree with us.
Goodness knows, I've tried to understand what makes Brexiteers tick and I just can't get into that mindset. I'm sure that Brexiteers have also tried to understand what motivates we Remainers too and reached the conclusion that they'll never understand us.
So what now? I've always said, on here and elsewhere, that I accept the referendum result. But, in my case, accepting it goes very much hand-in-hand with resenting it. My belief in democracy is strong but it's of no comfort at all weighed against the extreme bitterness that I feel towards all Brexiteer politicians (but not, I stress, against ordinary Brexit voters).
Brexit is going to happen and, when it does, the Brexiteer politicians need to get off their lazy backsides and show the rest of us that it can work. If it doesn't work then they will have broken the country beyond repair.
Brexit is an outlier of the changes ahead. No civilisation in human history has survived when it has consumed wealth faster than it has created it. If our society is to survive let alone thrive then we have to rebalance our economy to produce more and pay down our debt. If we don't do that we are completely scr**ed. Being in the EU gives us no route to do that. Being outside may, if we go for growth.
May does not help herself by avoiding the kind of carefully arranged TV appearances designed to get the public onside at key moments so beloved of Tony Blair and to a lesser extent David Cameron. Of course she's not particularly good at it but right now the public are bemused at the failure to take a grip on Brexit sensing only weakness and prevarication and inevitably politicians in parliament take their cue from this. The most urgent thing the UK needs is a renewed sense of proper leadership at this critical juncture. Clearly if May can't provide it she may as well step down.
Indeed, I'd go further and say that 80% of all economic growth is probably demographic related. Basically, countries do well when dependency ratios are falling, and do badly when they're rising.
I'd say much of growth over the last two centuries in the West (and more recently in China) has been from people moving from agricultural employment to manufacturing and service employment ie up the value chain.
I agree. Although demographics clearly play a part China in particular has overcome that by the movement of millions to the City to increase industrial output, just as we did in the Industrial Revolution. So you can cheat the limitations for a time, a considerable time in their case.
Of course what helped allow the movement away from agricultural employment was increased agricultural productivity
Likewise it was increased manufacturing productivity which led to the shift in employment to services.
And its been the stagnation in productivity which has exacerbated current problems.
May does not help herself by avoiding the kind of carefully arranged TV appearances designed to get the public onside at key moments so beloved of Tony Blair and to a lesser extent David Cameron. Of course she's not particularly good at it but right now the public are bemused at the failure to take a grip on Brexit sensing only weakness and prevarication and inevitably politicians in parliament take their cue from this. The most urgent thing the UK needs is a renewed sense of proper leadership at this critical juncture. Clearly if May can't provide it she may as well step down.
Proper leadership? ie either a diehard socialist, diehard Remainer or diehard Brexiteer which are the most likely alternatives to May and at the moment could tear the country apart.
What we need is someone technocratic and pragmatic like May to deal with the EU and keep the Brexiteers on board and seem prudent and sensible unlike Corbyn
The argument for a second referendum will be built around the concept of decision making under ignorance vs certainty or risk (google it). It’s a very interesting idea although no idea if it will fly. It is compelling, that said.
The argument for a second referendum will be built around the concept of decision making under ignorance vs certainty or risk (google it). It’s a very interesting idea although no idea if it will fly. It is compelling, that said.
Good night all.
Referendums are one of those procedural issues where people have very strong genuine righteous emotions about when they should be called and how they should be interpreted, but they always end up precisely coinciding with what they think best serves the outcome they want.
You can make the argument about letting the people decide once they have the information to make a meaningful decision, and it's a perfectly good argument, but at the end of the day it's neither here or there. If there's a referendum, it's because either:
a) The voters don't want to Brexit any more, and the PM also wants out, and a referendum is the most practical way to stop it b) Somebody who doesn't want to Brexit has veto power over something important, eg there's been an election and Corbyn is close but needs the LibDems
The biggest danger facing the UK is a Corbyn government, followed by a May BINO.
She has to go before the end of this year. She's terrible.
Didnt Corbyn promise she would have been gone before last Xmas.........like Mrs T, TM intends to go on and on, I'd love to know the mood of middling Tory backbenchers in the morning.
What on earth is she doing? If it becomes clear she has misled people the Lords will overturn this again and it will be back in the Commons. This is crazy. Losing would have been better than this.
She's just surviving day to day and hour to hour at the moment...
So what happens at the next EU summit in just under 2 weeks? what on earth does TM, DD and the rest of the coterie say to the great and the good round the table -business as usual?
So what happens at the next EU summit in just under 2 weeks? what on earth does TM, DD and the rest of the coterie say to the great and the good round the table -business as usual?
She'll say what she always says to everyone: exactly what the want to hear. It's all about just surviving with to see the next sunrise as PM for her. There's no overarching strategy, no long term plan; it's just blow smoke up the arse of whomever she is talking to and move on.
So what happens at the next EU summit in just under 2 weeks? what on earth does TM, DD and the rest of the coterie say to the great and the good round the table -business as usual?
She'll say what she always says to everyone: exactly what the want to hear. It's all about just surviving with to see the next sunrise as PM for her. There's no overarching strategy, no long term plan; it's just blow smoke up the arse of whomever she is talking to and move on.
So what happens at the next EU summit in just under 2 weeks? what on earth does TM, DD and the rest of the coterie say to the great and the good round the table -business as usual?
She'll say what she always says to everyone: exactly what the want to hear. It's all about just surviving with to see the next sunrise as PM for her. There's no overarching strategy, no long term plan; it's just blow smoke up the arse of whomever she is talking to and move on.
"Survival is Victory!"
who would have thought it of a church-going vicar's daughter?
So what happens at the next EU summit in just under 2 weeks? what on earth does TM, DD and the rest of the coterie say to the great and the good round the table -business as usual?
She'll say what she always says to everyone: exactly what the want to hear. It's all about just surviving with to see the next sunrise as PM for her. There's no overarching strategy, no long term plan; it's just blow smoke up the arse of whomever she is talking to and move on.
Comments
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1M5ocP6r6gE
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CesX04UFtO4&t=85s
The original JC (not the fake Labour tribute act) was also a social conservative, if a forgiving one
A unity government of EU-tolerant centrists is not a ridiculous way out of this mess when the sh*t hits the fan; Cable has Government experience and, as a figurehead PM, would not be unthinkable to either main party.
https://www.twitter.com/ScotTories/status/316510803526287360
May's problem is using Henry VIII powers with the political skill of Edward II.
In my mind and in retrospect Major is our 4th best postwar PM after Thatcher, Attlee and Macmillan
' For the three months ending April 2018, the highest unemployment rate in the UK was in London (5.2%) and the lowest was in Northern Ireland and the South West (both 3.3%). '
https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/regionallabourmarket/june2018
Get the feeling that British immigration policy isn't working very well ?
Please keep them coming.
Likewise it was increased manufacturing productivity which led to the shift in employment to services.
And its been the stagnation in productivity which has exacerbated current problems.
What we need is someone technocratic and pragmatic like May to deal with the EU and keep the Brexiteers on board and seem prudent and sensible unlike Corbyn
Good night all.
You can make the argument about letting the people decide once they have the information to make a meaningful decision, and it's a perfectly good argument, but at the end of the day it's neither here or there. If there's a referendum, it's because either:
a) The voters don't want to Brexit any more, and the PM also wants out, and a referendum is the most practical way to stop it
b) Somebody who doesn't want to Brexit has veto power over something important, eg there's been an election and Corbyn is close but needs the LibDems
I request a re-count.
She has to go before the end of this year. She's terrible.