politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A good day for backers of Michael Gove
In the last 24 hours the major betting news has been Michael Gove becoming the favourite in the next Tory leader market, both Betfair and Ladbrokes have seen this shift.
Seems government position is Comcast bid for Sky is absolutely fine, 21CF bid will be accepted if they divest Sky News. But they can divest it to Disney, which is looking to take-over 21CF.
So basically a fudge, that means little in reality. Disney can buy 21CF, which buys Sky, while selling Sky News to Disney.
Gove is a brilliant Cabinet Minister but would be a disaster as Tory leader, his yougov rating is -65% and he polls the worst of any politician Tory, Labour or LD in frontrank politics today.
With the SNP and a lot of Labour MPs supporting the expansion, getting the new runway through the Commons should now be easy. Shame it wasn’t done a decade ago.
To my mind the current value amongst the frontrunners is Javid. Though it's still hard to see why anyone would want to take over right now, apart from the whole getting-to-be-Prime-Minister thing.
Gove is a brilliant Cabinet Minister but would be a disaster as Tory leader, his yougov rating is -65% and he polls the worst of any politician Tory, Labour or LD in frontrank politics today.
Gove also still trails Mogg in the ConHome members poll anyway and Javid is gaining on him fast
Javid has to be the logical choice at the moment. Of course in another 6 months once the next Home Office disaster hits.
I actually don't think it will be Gove unless things move very quickly. Come August when what seems to be a disaster of a GCSE exam change is revealed I suspect his name won't be quite so popular
To my mind the current value amongst the frontrunners is Javid. Though it's still hard to see why anyone would want to take over right now, apart from the whole getting-to-be-Prime-Minister thing.
There've been worse times. As a rule, when it comes good for the new PM, it comes very good.
Gove is a brilliant Cabinet Minister but would be a disaster as Tory leader, his yougov rating is -65% and he polls the worst of any politician Tory, Labour or LD in frontrank politics today.
Gove also still trails Mogg in the ConHome members poll anyway and Javid is gaining on him fast
It's amazing that Gove is thought of as a serious contender. His record of betrayal is second to none in British politics today, as David Cameron, Boris Johnson and the British fishing industry could testify. And this is the man who told us with a straight face that if we voted leave the UK would hold all the negotiating cards and be able to dictate terms to the EU!
Seems government position is Comcast bid for Sky is absolutely fine, 21CF bid will be accepted if they divest Sky News. But they can divest it to Disney, which is looking to take-over 21CF.
So basically a fudge, that means little in reality. Disney can buy 21CF, which buys Sky, while selling Sky News to Disney.
Though Disney don't own any national newspapers so there's not the same media issue with them.
This market's so crazy I'm half-tempted to check the price of Ivanka Trump.
Keep an eye on Hammond. I know no-one likes him but depending on when May goes, looking like the only adult in the room might help. Otherwise, yes, Javid or Hunt. JRM can still be kingmaker so Gove cannot be ruled out completely.
And any of those 3 will pay for a very nice meal out.... Javid would pay for a weekend in the Lakes...
Hunt would be my biggest ever winner in any sport.
I’ve got £150 on him at 100/1 and above plus a decent wodge on him at 66/1
That’s a fantastic bet! I’ve been doing more laying than backing, but am green with you on the three main contenders from the header, and red on JRM, Johnson and Davidson (and Rudd, Patel etc).
To my mind the current value amongst the frontrunners is Javid. Though it's still hard to see why anyone would want to take over right now, apart from the whole getting-to-be-Prime-Minister thing.
There've been worse times. As a rule, when it comes good for the new PM, it comes very good.
That's true. If the Brexit needle can be threaded (i.e. a deal that isn't seen as a sellout or a humiliation) then you'd expect to see a bump in the polls for whoever's in charge, given the semi-apocalyptic expectations.
To my mind the current value amongst the frontrunners is Javid. Though it's still hard to see why anyone would want to take over right now, apart from the whole getting-to-be-Prime-Minister thing.
There've been worse times. As a rule, when it comes good for the new PM, it comes very good.
That's true. If the Brexit needle can be threaded (i.e. a deal that isn't seen as a sellout or a humiliation) then you'd expect to see a bump in the polls for whoever's in charge, given the semi-apocalyptic expectations.
Yes there's definitely a Brexit political dividend the question is who will collect it? If by GE2022 we are still in some kind of implementation/transition period then Lab can essentially do a GFA whereby the Cons do all the legwork and Lab take the credit (hand of history, etc).
Gove is a brilliant Cabinet Minister but would be a disaster as Tory leader, his yougov rating is -65% and he polls the worst of any politician Tory, Labour or LD in frontrank politics today.
And any of those 3 will pay for a very nice meal out.... Javid would pay for a weekend in the Lakes...
Hunt would be my biggest ever winner in any sport.
I’ve got £150 on him at 100/1 and above plus a decent wodge on him at 66/1
That’s a fantastic bet! I’ve been doing more laying than backing, but am green with you on the three main contenders from the header, and red on JRM, Johnson and Davidson (and Rudd, Patel etc).
Hunt, Mordaunt, McVey, Greening: all pay out big time for me. Javid - medium payout. Break even on most likely others, except Hammond and Davis.
For next Conservative leader, at present my big winners are David Lidington, David Gauke, Jeremy Hunt, Sajid Javid and Esther McVey. However, I'm decently green on everyone other than Jacob Rees-Mogg. I'm hugely red on him, mind. Boris Johnson or Ruth Davidson would be disappointing too, though still winners for me. I also lose if Jeremy Corbyn or David Miliband become next Prime Minister.
Jacob Rees-Mogg 6.64 £73.00 £412.00 Boris Johnson 12.85 £6.57 £77.84 Andrea Leadsom 25.00 £3.55 £85.20 David Miliband 96.76 £4.87 £466.33 Nigel Farage 400.00 £1.00 £399.00
I am currently trying to back John McDonnell at 890-1, though sadly noone has taken up my £2.
Or preparing for a Labour climb down next week. Corbyn and May need each other, if Labour manage to bring down May, she gets replaced with Javid who he won't be able to win against.
Isn't that close to impossible and not something the EU would ever accept?!
It sort of, well the whole point of a customs UNION is that you have common external tarriffs and no internal ones to the area. This isn't particularly difficult stuff. Corbyn is either being deliberately thick or trying to face both ways at once, probably both.
Isn't that close to impossible and not something the EU would ever accept anyway?!
No. Turkey are able to strike their own trade deals. Its a shit solution because it opens your borders to tariff free access for every country that has a trade deal with the EU but with no reciprocal rights but it does allow you to make your own trade deals.
A US Congressman has claimed that Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg may have lied to Congress about how much control users have over their data.
Congressman David Cicilline, a Democratic representative for Rhode Island, made the allegation following a report that Facebook gave Apple, Samsung and other firms "deep access" to its user data as part of a data-sharing partnership.
Or preparing for a Labour climb down next week. Corbyn and May need each other, if Labour manage to bring down May, she gets replaced with Javid who he won't be able to win against.
My other half's favourite joke - suitable for children of all ages - is as follows:
Q: How does an elephant ask for a cream bun? A: *put your arm in front of your face and waggle your hand in the face of the child of all ages* Can I have a cream bun please?
Gavin Williamson looks as though he's about to be asked for a cream bun.
For next Conservative leader, at present my big winners are David Lidington, David Gauke, Jeremy Hunt, Sajid Javid and Esther McVey. However, I'm decently green on everyone other than Jacob Rees-Mogg. I'm hugely red on him, mind. Boris Johnson or Ruth Davidson would be disappointing too, though still winners for me. I also lose if Jeremy Corbyn or David Miliband become next Prime Minister.
Or preparing for a Labour climb down next week. Corbyn and May need each other, if Labour manage to bring down May, she gets replaced with Javid who he won't be able to win against.
Market says Gove.
I think it would be a Javid/Gove ticket from the ERG and other sceptics vs whoever the remainers put up. I don't think Gove is leader material and probably recognises that, he wouldn't be able to lead us into an election, for example.
Or preparing for a Labour climb down next week. Corbyn and May need each other, if Labour manage to bring down May, she gets replaced with Javid who he won't be able to win against.
Market says Gove.
I think it would be a Javid/Gove ticket from the ERG and other sceptics vs whoever the remainers put up. I don't think Gove is leader material and probably recognises that, he wouldn't be able to lead us into an election, for example.
Not 100% sure some of the Remainers would stand for that. There was pent-up anger last time. So what would they do, you might ask? Not sure is the answer - many of them have never defied the whip, never voted against the government but might, like, ahem, some Cons supporters, feel that the party would no longer be one they could identify with.
Or preparing for a Labour climb down next week. Corbyn and May need each other, if Labour manage to bring down May, she gets replaced with Javid who he won't be able to win against.
Market says Gove.
I think it would be a Javid/Gove ticket from the ERG and other sceptics vs whoever the remainers put up. I don't think Gove is leader material and probably recognises that, he wouldn't be able to lead us into an election, for example.
Not 100% sure some of the Remainers would stand for that. There was pent-up anger last time. So what would they do, you might ask? Not sure is the answer - many of them have never defied the whip, never voted against the government but might, like, ahem, some Cons supporters, feel that the party would no longer be one they could identify with.
Javid was a remainer and he'd be PM. Why wouldn't they stand for that? I also think they'd get a huge win among the members so MPs who don't like it would have to live with it.
Or preparing for a Labour climb down next week. Corbyn and May need each other, if Labour manage to bring down May, she gets replaced with Javid who he won't be able to win against.
Market says Gove.
I think it would be a Javid/Gove ticket from the ERG and other sceptics vs whoever the remainers put up. I don't think Gove is leader material and probably recognises that, he wouldn't be able to lead us into an election, for example.
Not 100% sure some of the Remainers would stand for that. There was pent-up anger last time. So what would they do, you might ask? Not sure is the answer - many of them have never defied the whip, never voted against the government but might, like, ahem, some Cons supporters, feel that the party would no longer be one they could identify with.
Isnt the standard response at this stage to say fk off and join UKIP ?
Or preparing for a Labour climb down next week. Corbyn and May need each other, if Labour manage to bring down May, she gets replaced with Javid who he won't be able to win against.
Market says Gove.
I think it would be a Javid/Gove ticket from the ERG and other sceptics vs whoever the remainers put up. I don't think Gove is leader material and probably recognises that, he wouldn't be able to lead us into an election, for example.
Not 100% sure some of the Remainers would stand for that. There was pent-up anger last time. So what would they do, you might ask? Not sure is the answer - many of them have never defied the whip, never voted against the government but might, like, ahem, some Cons supporters, feel that the party would no longer be one they could identify with.
Javid was a remainer and he'd be PM. Why wouldn't they stand for that? I also think they'd get a huge win among the members so MPs who don't like it would have to live with it.
Well as I said this morning, May was supposed to be a safe pair of hands and I don't see Javid as being hugely different - essentially grey but more ambitious. Your comment "a Javid/Gove ticket from the ERG" drew my response. I don't think all Cons MPs would be happy to row in behind the ERG although Lab have with Momentum, that said.
Or preparing for a Labour climb down next week. Corbyn and May need each other, if Labour manage to bring down May, she gets replaced with Javid who he won't be able to win against.
Market says Gove.
I think it would be a Javid/Gove ticket from the ERG and other sceptics vs whoever the remainers put up. I don't think Gove is leader material and probably recognises that, he wouldn't be able to lead us into an election, for example.
Not 100% sure some of the Remainers would stand for that. There was pent-up anger last time. So what would they do, you might ask? Not sure is the answer - many of them have never defied the whip, never voted against the government but might, like, ahem, some Cons supporters, feel that the party would no longer be one they could identify with.
Isnt the standard response at this stage to say fk off and join UKIP ?
Yep. One has to wonder about this fabled middle party - it would pick up 300 MPs from the get go if anyone got up and went.
Or preparing for a Labour climb down next week. Corbyn and May need each other, if Labour manage to bring down May, she gets replaced with Javid who he won't be able to win against.
Market says Gove.
I think it would be a Javid/Gove ticket from the ERG and other sceptics vs whoever the remainers put up. I don't think Gove is leader material and probably recognises that, he wouldn't be able to lead us into an election, for example.
Not 100% sure some of the Remainers would stand for that. There was pent-up anger last time. So what would they do, you might ask? Not sure is the answer - many of them have never defied the whip, never voted against the government but might, like, ahem, some Cons supporters, feel that the party would no longer be one they could identify with.
Or preparing for a Labour climb down next week. Corbyn and May need each other, if Labour manage to bring down May, she gets replaced with Javid who he won't be able to win against.
Market says Gove.
I think it would be a Javid/Gove ticket from the ERG and other sceptics vs whoever the remainers put up. I don't think Gove is leader material and probably recognises that, he wouldn't be able to lead us into an election, for example.
Not 100% sure some of the Remainers would stand for that. There was pent-up anger last time. So what would they do, you might ask? Not sure is the answer - many of them have never defied the whip, never voted against the government but might, like, ahem, some Cons supporters, feel that the party would no longer be one they could identify with.
Then they could leave.
Edit. Oh I forgot, They won't leave anything no matter how bad it gets.
Or preparing for a Labour climb down next week. Corbyn and May need each other, if Labour manage to bring down May, she gets replaced with Javid who he won't be able to win against.
Market says Gove.
I think it would be a Javid/Gove ticket from the ERG and other sceptics vs whoever the remainers put up. I don't think Gove is leader material and probably recognises that, he wouldn't be able to lead us into an election, for example.
Not 100% sure some of the Remainers would stand for that. There was pent-up anger last time. So what would they do, you might ask? Not sure is the answer - many of them have never defied the whip, never voted against the government but might, like, ahem, some Cons supporters, feel that the party would no longer be one they could identify with.
Isnt the standard response at this stage to say fk off and join UKIP ?
Yep. One has to wonder about this fabled middle party - it would pick up 300 MPs from the get go if anyone got up and went.
I have not followed this in detail so I was wondering how exactly have Northern Rail screwed this up so badly? Did they introduce a timetable that they couldn't themselves meet or is there a problem because if it works it is a worse timetable than they had before. Is it interfacing with Network Rail that is the issue or is it all down to NR's internal mismanagement of their own business?
If only someone had warned Grayling to get a grip of the situation.
He should have arranged for a Transport Summit meeting, held in the north, for last weekend, and demanded the chief execs and operations directors of the affected companies attend, together with other interested parties, and banged some heads together.
As well as actually doing some good, he would have been seen to be doing something.
Instead, he's just given the green light to several more billions being spent in and around London, which will be tremendous consolation to a Manchester commuter on a class 142.
Or preparing for a Labour climb down next week. Corbyn and May need each other, if Labour manage to bring down May, she gets replaced with Javid who he won't be able to win against.
Market says Gove.
I think it would be a Javid/Gove ticket from the ERG and other sceptics vs whoever the remainers put up. I don't think Gove is leader material and probably recognises that, he wouldn't be able to lead us into an election, for example.
Not 100% sure some of the Remainers would stand for that. There was pent-up anger last time. So what would they do, you might ask? Not sure is the answer - many of them have never defied the whip, never voted against the government but might, like, ahem, some Cons supporters, feel that the party would no longer be one they could identify with.
Isnt the standard response at this stage to say fk off and join UKIP ?
Yep. One has to wonder about this fabled middle party - it would pick up 300 MPs from the get go if anyone got up and went.
Or preparing for a Labour climb down next week. Corbyn and May need each other, if Labour manage to bring down May, she gets replaced with Javid who he won't be able to win against.
Market says Gove.
I think it would be a Javid/Gove ticket from the ERG and other sceptics vs whoever the remainers put up. I don't think Gove is leader material and probably recognises that, he wouldn't be able to lead us into an election, for example.
Not 100% sure some of the Remainers would stand for that. There was pent-up anger last time. So what would they do, you might ask? Not sure is the answer - many of them have never defied the whip, never voted against the government but might, like, ahem, some Cons supporters, feel that the party would no longer be one they could identify with.
Javid was a remainer and he'd be PM. Why wouldn't they stand for that? I also think they'd get a huge win among the members so MPs who don't like it would have to live with it.
Well as I said this morning, May was supposed to be a safe pair of hands and I don't see Javid as being hugely different - essentially grey but more ambitious. Your comment "a Javid/Gove ticket from the ERG" drew my response. I don't think all Cons MPs would be happy to row in behind the ERG although Lab have with Momentum, that said.
I think it would be pitched as a compromise ticket if it were to happen. Instead of putting their own candidate forwards the ERG would back a Javid/Gove ticket. One remainer, one leaver and the remainer in number 10. I think neither would back staying in the customs union so the remainers would want to field their own candidate who does back it, but I don't think they would be able to win the members' vote, most are too wet and many seen as serving the EU rather than the UK by the members I know.
If the remainers are not able to reconcile themselves to any kind of Brexit after that (and there would only be a handful, nothing like the 300 from Con/Lab you mention) then I expect a time limited compromise and an election in 2020 to completely sideline them and take advantage of Corbyn still being Labour leader.
I have not followed this in detail so I was wondering how exactly have Northern Rail screwed this up so badly? Did they introduce a timetable that they couldn't themselves meet or is there a problem because if it works it is a worse timetable than they had before. Is it interfacing with Network Rail that is the issue or is it all down to NR's internal mismanagement of their own business?
A bit of both.
They introduced the timetable change whilst Liverpool and a few other stations are closed.
Plus the drivers aren't yet fully trained on the new trains/routes.
As someone who commutes to Manchester daily and most of my staff commute in using Northern it is stressful.
There's been a few life threatening situations as the platforms are heaving full of people waiting for cancelled/delayed trains and arriving trains have a load of passengers wishing to get off.
Or preparing for a Labour climb down next week. Corbyn and May need each other, if Labour manage to bring down May, she gets replaced with Javid who he won't be able to win against.
Market says Gove.
I te.
Not 100% sment but might, like, ahem, some Cons supporters, feel that the party would no longer be one they could identify with.
Javid was a remainer and he'd be PM. Why wouldn't they stand for that? I also think they'd get a huge win among the members so MPs who don't like it would have to live with it.
Well as I said this morning, May was supposed to be a safe pair of hands and I don't see Javid as being hugely different - essentially grey but more ambitious. Your comment "a Javid/Gove ticket from the ERG" drew my response. I don't think all Cons MPs would be happy to row in behind the ERG although Lab have with Momentum, that said.
I think it would be pitched as a compromise ticket if it were to happen. Instead of putting their own candidate forwards the ERG would back a Javid/Gove ticket. One remainer, one leaver and the remainer in number 10. I think neither would back staying in the customs union so the remainers would want to field their own candidate who does back it, but I don't think they would be able to win the members' vote, most are too wet and many seen as serving the EU rather than the UK by the members I know.
If the remainers are not able to reconcile themselves to any kind of Brexit after that (and there would only be a handful, nothing like the 300 from Con/Lab you mention) then I expect a time limited compromise and an election in 2020 to completely sideline them and take advantage of Corbyn still being Labour leader.
Yes that makes sense except I don't see how much further we would be from what we have today (Remainer in No.10, etc). The ERG would presumably make demands of Javid but, as with May today, he is first of all a Remainer, and second of all, would be PM and hence not, I hope, at liberty to accede to some of the bonkers demands that they would try to make. So what would be the point of the ERG endorsing it if they got nothing more than they are already getting, whatever that is?
That's other frustrating thing with Northern, they'll wait 45 mins to tell you your train is cancelled even though they've known for days that train won't be running.
I have not followed this in detail so I was wondering how exactly have Northern Rail screwed this up so badly? Did they introduce a timetable that they couldn't themselves meet or is there a problem because if it works it is a worse timetable than they had before. Is it interfacing with Network Rail that is the issue or is it all down to NR's internal mismanagement of their own business?
Right, AIUI:
The outline services to be run are agreed in advance (often at franchise time) between the DfT, the operator and Network Rail. In this case, there was going to be a large alteration to the timetables country-wide due to new trains and improved infrastructure allowing new routes. It is then up to Network Rail to devise the timetables.
New timetables come in in December and May, with the latter ('summer') timetable usually being bigger changes. TOCs are usually given three or so months notice of the broad-brush new timetable, so they can train staff up for the changes.
However in Northern's case, Network Rail mucked up the infrastructure improvements. This meant the overworked small timetabling team were making alterations to the timetable a week or two before it was due to come in. And because the infrastructure was not ready, Northern could not train the staff on the routes. (And now some guesswork: the constantly-changing emergency timetables they bought in duriing the first two weeks of chaos probably didn't help).
I have much sympathy with Northern, who really are not architects of the mess they find themselves in. The situation with GTR down south is roughly similar, but with detail differences that can be laid more at GTR's door.
The DfT are much to blame. In particular, leaving not enough time between scheduled infrastructure completion and the new services running. In another recent case during Chester, they finished the infrastructure and will be running first services over it in six months. But allegedly they wanted to show off the money they'd spent on that shiny new infrastructure...
That's other frustrating thing with Northern, they'll wait 45 mins to tell you your train is cancelled even though they've known for days that train won't be running.
Comradely sympathy from a Southern trains survivor.
That's other frustrating thing with Northern, they'll wait 45 mins to tell you your train is cancelled even though they've known for days that train won't be running.
Do they know, or are they being told by Network Rail that it might be able to be run?
That's other frustrating thing with Northern, they'll wait 45 mins to tell you your train is cancelled even though they've known for days that train won't be running.
Do they know, or are they being told by Network Rail that it might be able to be run?
Northern Rail managers know trains are ‘likely’ to be cancelled the night before - but don’t tell the public, it has been claimed.
Yes that makes sense except I don't see how much further we would be from what we have today (Remainer in No.10, etc). The ERG would presumably make demands of Javid but, as with May today, he is first of all a Remainer, and second of all, would be PM and hence not, I hope, at liberty to accede to some of the bonkers demands that they would try to make. So what would be the point of the ERG endorsing it if they got nothing more than they are already getting, whatever that is?
It puts Gove into number 11, Javid is not an ideological remainer and would be a much more pragmatic and decisive PM than May. I think if he went in and walked the route of Brexit as the City would like it (what Robert, myself and other leavers on here have proposed) they would probably live with it as long as the end goal was being completely out within a few years and no open-ended commitments to the CU or SM are made (as May seems ready to do).
Javid has already spoken out against the customs union, a few times so that will help win over the moderate sceptics (which make up the majority of the MPs and members) and enough of the ERG to not put forwards a challenge despite coming out for remain, IMO.
I also think getting Hammond out of number 11 (and Gove in) would count as a huge win for the ERG, which is why if Javid and Gove run a joint ticket they get most of the party behind them.
That's other frustrating thing with Northern, they'll wait 45 mins to tell you your train is cancelled even though they've known for days that train won't be running.
My sister was telling me that Thameslink and Great Northern are just deleting trains from the schedule if they aren't running. Not sure which is worse tbh.
That's other frustrating thing with Northern, they'll wait 45 mins to tell you your train is cancelled even though they've known for days that train won't be running.
Do they know, or are they being told by Network Rail that it might be able to be run?
Northern Rail managers know trains are ‘likely’ to be cancelled the night before - but don’t tell the public, it has been claimed.
The source for that claim is the Manchester mayor, who as you know is my favourite person in the whole world (not), whom I would never call a low piece of scum.
If I'm reading that correctly, 60% of the possible cancellations went ahead, which means that 40% did run. If they cancelled all of the list then that piece of scum would be complaining about unnecessary cancellations.
Of course they'll be thinking about what services may be cut: but they don't *know* if they'll run or not.
Wonder if Boris has enough on Gove to scupper his chances.
More generally, what will Boris Johnson do if a vacancy seems set to come up? He must know that now is not his moment. Will he shore up TMPM? Will he throw his hat in the ring anyway? To whom would he give his endorsement, which must still count for quite a bit? And what would he want in return?
Yes that makes sense except I don't see how much further we would be from what we have today (Remainer in No.10, etc). The ERG would presumably make demands of Javid but, as with May today, he is first of all a Remainer, and second of all, would be PM and hence not, I hope, at liberty to accede to some of the bonkers demands that they would try to make. So what would be the point of the ERG endorsing it if they got nothing more than they are already getting, whatever that is?
It puts Gove into number 11, Javid is not an ideological remainer and would be a much more pragmatic and decisive PM than May. I think if he went in and walked the route of Brexit as the City would like it (what Robert, myself and other leavers on here have proposed) they would probably live with it as long as the end goal was being completely out within a few years and no open-ended commitments to the CU or SM are made (as May seems ready to do).
Javid has already spoken out against the customs union, a few times so that will help win over the moderate sceptics (which make up the majority of the MPs and members) and enough of the ERG to not put forwards a challenge despite coming out for remain, IMO.
I also think getting Hammond out of number 11 (and Gove in) would count as a huge win for the ERG, which is why if Javid and Gove run a joint ticket they get most of the party behind them.
Sadly and disappointingly, we saw from the O'Hagan Grenfell article what kind of principles Javid has - a range. And I wouldn't have put May down as being an ideological remainer either. Being PM is a world away from being not PM (as we saw with May) and things change especially when you are juggling with interest groups.
And the pressure to do similar things all over will be as high with Javid as with May. Gove in No. 11 does I agree help the ERG but again his principles have been shown to be flaky at best.
Gove is a brilliant Cabinet Minister but would be a disaster as Tory leader, his yougov rating is -65% and he polls the worst of any politician Tory, Labour or LD in frontrank politics today.
Yes that makes sense except I don't see how much further we would be from what we have today (Remainer in No.10, etc). The ERG would presumably make demands of Javid but, as with May today, he is first of all a Remainer, and second of all, would be PM and hence not, I hope, at liberty to accede to some of the bonkers demands that they would try to make. So what would be the point of the ERG endorsing it if they got nothing more than they are already getting, whatever that is?
It puts Gove into number 11, Javid is not an ideological remainer and would be a much more pragmatic and decisive PM than May. I think if he went in and walked the route of Brexit as the City would like it (what Robert, myself and other leavers on here have proposed) they would probably live with it as long as the end goal was being completely out within a few years and no open-ended commitments to the CU or SM are made (as May seems ready to do).
Javid has already spoken out against the customs union, a few times so that will help win over the moderate sceptics (which make up the majority of the MPs and members) and enough of the ERG to not put forwards a challenge despite coming out for remain, IMO.
I also think getting Hammond out of number 11 (and Gove in) would count as a huge win for the ERG, which is why if Javid and Gove run a joint ticket they get most of the party behind them.
Sadly and disappointingly, we saw from the O'Hagan Grenfell article what kind of principles Javid has - a range. And I wouldn't have put May down as being an ideological remainer either. Being PM is a world away from being not PM (as we saw with May) and things change especially when you are juggling with interest groups.
And the pressure to do similar things all over will be as high with Javid as with May. Gove in No. 11 does I agree help the ERG but again his principles have been shown to be flaky at best.
That's sort of my point, it's a compromise ticket. I think any idiot can see that the ERG won't be able to win with their own candidates, they might not even be able to get their own ticket to the members' ballot. It's the age old question of having some influence vs none. I know on which you fall with that argument.
I have not followed this in detail so I was wondering how exactly have Northern Rail screwed this up so badly? Did they introduce a timetable that they couldn't themselves meet or is there a problem because if it works it is a worse timetable than they had before. Is it interfacing with Network Rail that is the issue or is it all down to NR's internal mismanagement of their own business?
A bit of both.
They introduced the timetable change whilst Liverpool and a few other stations are closed.
Plus the drivers aren't yet fully trained on the new trains/routes.
As someone who commutes to Manchester daily and most of my staff commute in using Northern it is stressful.
There's been a few life threatening situations as the platforms are heaving full of people waiting for cancelled/delayed trains and arriving trains have a load of passengers wishing to get off.
Fortunately I used Trans Pennine Express
Aren't TPE just as affected by the infrastructure changes though? How come they seem to be coping much better?
Yes that makes sense except I don't see how much further we would be from what we have today (Remainer in No.10, etc). The ERG would presumably make demands of Javid but, as with May today, he is first of all a Remainer, and second of all, would be PM and hence not, I hope, at liberty to accede to some of the bonkers demands that they would try to make. So what would be the point of the ERG endorsing it if they got nothing more than they are already getting, whatever that is?
It puts Gove into number 11, Javid is not an ideological remainer and would be a much more pragmatic and decisive PM than May. I think if he went in and walked the route of Brexit as the City would like it (what Robert, myself and other leavers on here have proposed) they would probably live with it as long as the end goal was being completely out within a few years and no open-ended commitments to the CU or SM are made (as May seems ready to do).
Javid has already spoken out against the customs union, a few times so that will help win over the moderate sceptics (which make up the majority of the MPs and members) and enough of the ERG to not put forwards a challenge despite coming out for remain, IMO.
I also think getting Hammond out of number 11 (and Gove in) would count as a huge win for the ERG, which is why if Javid and Gove run a joint ticket they get most of the party behind them.
I would be a lot happier with Gove in number 11 than number 10. I think he has the intellect to seize the problems of the Treasury and our absurd tax system. I think he would also be more ambitious about housing and infrastructure and slightly less anxious about the deficit. Hammond is really steady as you go and that is not what is needed if this country is to maintain its dynamism.
Javid has worried me for a bit because he has often seemed a little lacking in critical analysis of a problem or substance (he was disappointing at Business) but he would be a better frontman choice than Gove. The ideal would be if Javid/Gove could get Osborne back inside the tent as well. We are desperately short of real talent in front line politics in this country.
May and Hammond need to win big next week on all of these votes. If they don't their time may well be up.
Comments
So basically a fudge, that means little in reality. Disney can buy 21CF, which buys Sky, while selling Sky News to Disney.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2018/02/10/if-not-may-then-who/
https://twitter.com/JoeMurphyLondon/status/1003990794083160064
https://yougov.co.uk/opi/browse/Michael_Gove
Gove also still trails Mogg in the ConHome members poll anyway and Javid is gaining on him fast
On Gove, yes keep him onside.
I actually don't think it will be Gove unless things move very quickly. Come August when what seems to be a disaster of a GCSE exam change is revealed I suspect his name won't be quite so popular
I’ve got £150 on him at 100/1 and above plus a decent wodge on him at 66/1
Keep an eye on Hammond. I know no-one likes him but depending on when May goes, looking like the only adult in the room might help. Otherwise, yes, Javid or Hunt. JRM can still be kingmaker so Gove cannot be ruled out completely.
https://thetradenews.com/uk-mp-no-bonfire-financial-regulations-post-brexit/
https://order-order.com/2018/06/05/deactivate/
Maomentumers will be laughing into their ethnically sources vegan friendly lattes...
The FCS, Team 2020, now this lot.
At least people got laid with Team 2020.
(No I didn’t. Join, I mean!)
I know I tipped him at 100/1 but a friend got 350/1 on Betfair and I wouldn’t be able to cope in that game of oneupmanship.
https://twitter.com/VirendraSharma/status/976413750944202753
Gove
Gove on your side
Cos you got Gove
Gove
Gove on your side
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N66cGvR5yvU
All lays:
Jacob Rees-Mogg 6.64 £73.00 £412.00
Boris Johnson 12.85 £6.57 £77.84
Andrea Leadsom 25.00 £3.55 £85.20
David Miliband 96.76 £4.87 £466.33
Nigel Farage 400.00 £1.00 £399.00
I am currently trying to back John McDonnell at 890-1, though sadly noone has taken up my £2.
https://twitter.com/BBCNormanS/status/1004001464623263745
This isn't particularly difficult stuff.
Corbyn is either being deliberately thick or trying to face both ways at once, probably both.
Congressman David Cicilline, a Democratic representative for Rhode Island, made the allegation following a report that Facebook gave Apple, Samsung and other firms "deep access" to its user data as part of a data-sharing partnership.
https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/news/mark-zuckerberg-facebook-data-scandal-lied-congress-david-cicilline-a8384261.html
Zuckerberg is getting the hang of this politics lark.
https://twitter.com/RogerJ_01/status/1003959191655022592
https://twitter.com/MENnewsdesk/status/1004014267690049536
Q: How does an elephant ask for a cream bun?
A: *put your arm in front of your face and waggle your hand in the face of the child of all ages* Can I have a cream bun please?
Gavin Williamson looks as though he's about to be asked for a cream bun.
https://tradingeconomics.com/italy/government-bond-yield
And to think I voted for him back in the day.
He should have arranged for a Transport Summit meeting, held in the north, for last weekend, and demanded the chief execs and operations directors of the affected companies attend, together with other interested parties, and banged some heads together.
As well as actually doing some good, he would have been seen to be doing something.
Instead, he's just given the green light to several more billions being spent in and around London, which will be tremendous consolation to a Manchester commuter on a class 142.
On-topic: if Javid became PM, then announced he'd converted to Judaism, watching the reaction of the cult would be faintly hilarious.
If the remainers are not able to reconcile themselves to any kind of Brexit after that (and there would only be a handful, nothing like the 300 from Con/Lab you mention) then I expect a time limited compromise and an election in 2020 to completely sideline them and take advantage of Corbyn still being Labour leader.
They introduced the timetable change whilst Liverpool and a few other stations are closed.
Plus the drivers aren't yet fully trained on the new trains/routes.
As someone who commutes to Manchester daily and most of my staff commute in using Northern it is stressful.
There's been a few life threatening situations as the platforms are heaving full of people waiting for cancelled/delayed trains and arriving trains have a load of passengers wishing to get off.
Fortunately I used Trans Pennine Express
The outline services to be run are agreed in advance (often at franchise time) between the DfT, the operator and Network Rail. In this case, there was going to be a large alteration to the timetables country-wide due to new trains and improved infrastructure allowing new routes. It is then up to Network Rail to devise the timetables.
New timetables come in in December and May, with the latter ('summer') timetable usually being bigger changes. TOCs are usually given three or so months notice of the broad-brush new timetable, so they can train staff up for the changes.
However in Northern's case, Network Rail mucked up the infrastructure improvements. This meant the overworked small timetabling team were making alterations to the timetable a week or two before it was due to come in. And because the infrastructure was not ready, Northern could not train the staff on the routes. (And now some guesswork: the constantly-changing emergency timetables they bought in duriing the first two weeks of chaos probably didn't help).
I have much sympathy with Northern, who really are not architects of the mess they find themselves in. The situation with GTR down south is roughly similar, but with detail differences that can be laid more at GTR's door.
The DfT are much to blame. In particular, leaving not enough time between scheduled infrastructure completion and the new services running. In another recent case during Chester, they finished the infrastructure and will be running first services over it in six months. But allegedly they wanted to show off the money they'd spent on that shiny new infrastructure...
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1004031772743602176
https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/northern-trains-cancelled-manchester-burnham-14678174
Javid has already spoken out against the customs union, a few times so that will help win over the moderate sceptics (which make up the majority of the MPs and members) and enough of the ERG to not put forwards a challenge despite coming out for remain, IMO.
I also think getting Hammond out of number 11 (and Gove in) would count as a huge win for the ERG, which is why if Javid and Gove run a joint ticket they get most of the party behind them.
If I'm reading that correctly, 60% of the possible cancellations went ahead, which means that 40% did run. If they cancelled all of the list then that piece of scum would be complaining about unnecessary cancellations.
Of course they'll be thinking about what services may be cut: but they don't *know* if they'll run or not.
At least that's my reading of that.
One to think about.
We have already seen the likely route the City will take to Brexit - https://thetradenews.com/uk-mp-no-bonfire-financial-regulations-post-brexit/
And the pressure to do similar things all over will be as high with Javid as with May. Gove in No. 11 does I agree help the ERG but again his principles have been shown to be flaky at best.
Hammond is really steady as you go and that is not what is needed if this country is to maintain its dynamism.
Javid has worried me for a bit because he has often seemed a little lacking in critical analysis of a problem or substance (he was disappointing at Business) but he would be a better frontman choice than Gove. The ideal would be if Javid/Gove could get Osborne back inside the tent as well. We are desperately short of real talent in front line politics in this country.
May and Hammond need to win big next week on all of these votes. If they don't their time may well be up.