I have nailed my colours to the mast many times and do so again this morning: Brexit will not happen.
It seems there are two of us now with this mad prediction. I am joined by Bernard-Henri Levy, who, interviewed in the Spectator, says: "I can tell you this. Brexit will not happen."
The second quote sums up perfectly why the EU was wrong for us and we had to leave. We are a successful Common Law nation and their Civil Law Constitution was not for us.
The second quote sums up perfectly why the EU was wrong for us and we had to leave. We are a successful Common Law nation and their Civil Law Constitution was not for us.
The first sums up perfectly why the Brexiteers assertion that leaving would be easy was always bollocks
Well, it seems that the civil service conclude that we can avoid ALL of the issues they mention if we simply drop border controls for a period, as I suggested before.
Therefore, the question is whether the EU will introduce border controls and then what impact that will have. For 80%+ of exports, I don't imagine that a delay at customs in Europe is going to be fatal - they simply have to plan for the delay. The EU cannot, of course, refuse to allow UK exports to enter at all. It is against WTO rules.
Then, if the EU do block time critical items (eg foodstuffs) then we simply retaliate. Assuming we have declared unilateral free trade with everyone, we are allowed to retaliate to someone else's actions under WTO. And as we know, the EU import a lot of stuff to the UK.
So, no, the port will not collapse and food will not run out and medical supplies will still be delivered. UK exports to the EU will be impacted but in many cases it will simply present as a time delay. And the UK government have 40bn up their sleeves to compensate affected exporters. At some stage, the EU will stop being silly and agree a trade deal or, if not, formalise sensible agreements for WTO trade.
Either way, not seeing doomsday.
"if we simply drop border controls" will that equate to free movement?
No. Unilateral feee trade - only affects goods imports. In fact, proper immigration controls could be imposed immediately.
I went to Dublin on Friday. For the last 5 years or so, I have to show my passport when I arrive in Dublin but do not go through Passport Control when I return. Which is bloody good news, considering how long it takes in Heathrow even with the Iris machines.
So to be clear. I was a Remain voter who reluctantly accepted we would be leaving after the referendum and then the general election. Parliament, let us not forget, chose to hold the referendum and then Article 50. I've always assumed some sort of transition deal would be the best option but clearly the government had to be preparing for no deal in case this couldn't be done. However it then emerged that perhaps some people were determined to stop any contingency planning for no deal on the basis that the government would then have to accept whatever deal was offered. I've always thought this was incredibly dangerous but refused to believe it would actually be countenanced. I don't know what's happening but it certainly feels very foggy this morning.
I think Nick Palmer is fundamentally wrong. A BINO will anger a lot of people. It was the highest turnout sine 1997. Wherever you stand on immigration it is a major political concern for voters. All the government would be able to do after a BINO is shrug their shoulders and say there's not a lot they can do. And people aren't going to buy the idea that it's just too difficult. They'll smell a rat and regard it as sabotage. Which given the Remain led government we have won't be difficult.
And what about the 48% - not to be forgotten! I was one of them but a situation where we leave the EU and lose influence whilst having to follow all the rules. Ridiculous.
I have asked over and over again what form of 'soft Brexit' Remainers think exists that does not involve freedom of movement. Once someone provides an answer, then we can discuss how people may or may not react to this. No deal that includes FOM will produce the sort of reaction that you envisage.
The problem that is occurring in negotiations is that no such deal exists.
Yes, interesting that you and HYUFD (who is much softer than you) are making the same point. I think the Government instinct will be to fudge it if they can (almost no MPs are REALLY worried about FOM, they're worried that voters are worried). Not sure how practical it is without going hard. If it's not practical, I think they'll leave it alone and throw up a haze of "transitional", "subject to review", etc. Because UKIP is a busted flush, Conservatives will reckon they can get away with it, and quite possibly they're right, beause they will still be seen as more anti-FOM than Labour in principle.
Well, this gets to the heart of the HYUFD 'conflict' - he would probably be happy with something that looks like it ends FOM but doesn't really. Obviously I don't agree.
All I would say was that Cameron risked his entire premiership on the idea that you can do a fudge with the EU, call it something else ('special status'), repeat it over and over again and that people will believe it. As I recall, this unravelled after less than a week.
I can't see the EU making genuine concessions on FOM - if they would, the whole thing would have been over a few months after the referendum (EEA with restrictions on FOM would have been taken back then in a flash). So unless you think Leavers will back down on FOM I suspect we have a problem....
FFS. There is no institution on Earth that breaks its own laws with the same reckless abandon as the EU. The reason that happens is because the ECJ is a political Court that ignores the law when it is demanded of them. So quite obviously, if they wanted a fix it would be done in seconds.
Strong comments from Sajid Javid on the Andrew Marr show regarding the Muslim Council of Britain. "The Muslim Council of Britain does not represent Muslims in this country. We don't deal with the MCB because too many of their members have made favourable comments on extremists."
I have nailed my colours to the mast many times and do so again this morning: Brexit will not happen.
It seems there are two of us now with this mad prediction. I am joined by Bernard-Henri Levy, who, interviewed in the Spectator, says: "I can tell you this. Brexit will not happen."
The second quote sums up perfectly why the EU was wrong for us and we had to leave. We are a successful Common Law nation and their Civil Law Constitution was not for us.
The first sums up perfectly why the Brexiteers assertion that leaving would be easy was always bollocks
Because Civil Servants are risk-averse and don't want to rock the boat? There's nothing new there.
Well, it seems that the civil service conclude that we can avoid ALL of the issues they mention if we simply drop border controls for a period, as I suggested before.
Therefore, the question is whether the EU will introduce border controls and then what impact that will have. For 80%+ of exports, I don't imagine that a delay at customs in Europe is going to be fatal - they simply have to plan for the delay. The EU cannot, of course, refuse to allow UK exports to enter at all. It is against WTO rules.
Then, if the EU do block time critical items (eg foodstuffs) then we simply retaliate. Assuming we have declared unilateral free trade with everyone, we are allowed to retaliate to someone else's actions under WTO. And as we know, the EU import a lot of stuff to the UK.
So, no, the port will not collapse and food will not run out and medical supplies will still be delivered. UK exports to the EU will be impacted but in many cases it will simply present as a time delay. And the UK government have 40bn up their sleeves to compensate affected exporters. At some stage, the EU will stop being silly and agree a trade deal or, if not, formalise sensible agreements for WTO trade.
Either way, not seeing doomsday.
"if we simply drop border controls" will that equate to free movement?
No. Unilateral feee trade - only affects goods imports. In fact, proper immigration controls could be imposed immediately.
I went to Dublin on Friday. For the last 5 years or so, I have to show my passport when I arrive in Dublin but do not go through Passport Control when I return. Which is bloody good news, considering how long it takes in Heathrow even with the Iris machines.
Dublin airport has no apparent means of segregating UK and CI passengers - which perhaps explains the approach. If you arrive on Aer Lingus at their new Terminal 2 hub you will often find you end up in long queues with those arriving from the US. I prefer to use Ryanair or cityjet as I can arrive at the quieter terminal 1.
But they even require you to show passports at Kerry airport where the only regular daily flights are from Dublin, Luton and Stansted. So much for the D common travel area! On return to the UK no ID is required as RoI flights are treated as domestic arrivals.
Strong comments from Sajid Javid on the Andrew Marr show regarding the Muslim Council of Britain. "The Muslim Council of Britain does not represent Muslims in this country. We don't deal with the MCB because too many of their members have made favourable comments on extremists."
The second quote sums up perfectly why the EU was wrong for us and we had to leave. We are a successful Common Law nation and their Civil Law Constitution was not for us.
There is no rule of law with the EU there is rule of power with law being one of its tools.
Laws are ignored when they contradict the interest of power.
I have asked over and over again what form of 'soft Brexit' Remainers think exists that does not involve freedom of movement. Once someone provides an answer, then we can discuss how people may or may not react to this. No deal that includes FOM will produce the sort of reaction that you envisage.
The problem that is occurring in negotiations is that no such deal exists.
Yes, interesting that you and HYUFD (who is much softer than you) are making the same point. I think the Government instinct will be to fudge it if they can (almost no MPs are REALLY worried about FOM, they're worried that voters are worried). Not sure how practical it is without going hard. If it's not practical, I think they'll leave it alone and throw up a haze of "transitional", "subject to review", etc. Because UKIP is a busted flush, Conservatives will reckon they can get away with it, and quite possibly they're right, beause they will still be seen as more anti-FOM than Labour in principle.
I voted Remain unlike archer101 but I also know the quickest way to revive UKIP is a BINO which leaves FOM in place.
Whatever deal is done with the EU if it can be done something, eg work permits needs to replace FOM
Strong comments from Sajid Javid on the Andrew Marr show regarding the Muslim Council of Britain. "The Muslim Council of Britain does not represent Muslims in this country. We don't deal with the MCB because too many of their members have made favourable comments on extremists."
My wife said how well Sajid Javid came across on Marr this morning.
Sajid to become first PM with a Muslim background?
Has there been a first PM with a Jewish background and if so who was it?
Strong comments from Sajid Javid on the Andrew Marr show regarding the Muslim Council of Britain. "The Muslim Council of Britain does not represent Muslims in this country. We don't deal with the MCB because too many of their members have made favourable comments on extremists."
My wife said how well Sajid Javid came across on Marr this morning.
Sajid to become first PM with a Muslim background?
Has there been a first PM with a Jewish background and if so who was it?
I have asked over and over again what form of 'soft Brexit' Remainers think exists that does not involve freedom of movement. Once someone provides an answer, then we can discuss how people may or may not react to this. No deal that includes FOM will produce the sort of reaction that you envisage.
The problem that is occurring in negotiations is that no such deal exists.
Yes, interesting that you and HYUFD (who is much softer than you) are making the same point. I think the Government instinct will be to fudge it if they can (almost no MPs are REALLY worried about FOM, they're worried that voters are worried). Not sure how practical it is without going hard. If it's not practical, I think they'll leave it alone and throw up a haze of "transitional", "subject to review", etc. Because UKIP is a busted flush, Conservatives will reckon they can get away with it, and quite possibly they're right, beause they will still be seen as more anti-FOM than Labour in principle.
The danger is that you'd be repeating all the problems that lead to the referendum in the first place. That voters have nowhere else to go, it's all Labour vs Tory and Ukip are not important. They aren't at the moment because Theresa May has committed herself to leaving. If that changes they'll be back with a vengeance. Sometimes I think politicians believe voters are like goldfish.
I also find it hard to believe that MPs aren't much concerned about free movement. It was certainly an eye opener for me to see the see impeccably metropolitan technocrat crossbencher Lord Turner state that had the referendum simply been a matter of immigration he would have supported leave.
Strong comments from Sajid Javid on the Andrew Marr show regarding the Muslim Council of Britain. "The Muslim Council of Britain does not represent Muslims in this country. We don't deal with the MCB because too many of their members have made favourable comments on extremists."
My wife said how well Sajid Javid came across on Marr this morning.
Sajid to become first PM with a Muslim background?
Has there been a first PM with a Jewish background and if so who was it?
Mr. F, indeed. The Elgin Marbles would be dust now.
As it happens, I think it would be great if the Elgin Marbles were restored to The Parthenon, so we could see them as they were originally intended to be displayed, but that should be done as an act of generosity, not as a legal obligation.
Strong comments from Sajid Javid on the Andrew Marr show regarding the Muslim Council of Britain. "The Muslim Council of Britain does not represent Muslims in this country. We don't deal with the MCB because too many of their members have made favourable comments on extremists."
Well done Sajid Javid. He's quickly becoming a real contender for number 10.
Strong comments from Sajid Javid on the Andrew Marr show regarding the Muslim Council of Britain. "The Muslim Council of Britain does not represent Muslims in this country. We don't deal with the MCB because too many of their members have made favourable comments on extremists."
My wife said how well Sajid Javid came across on Marr this morning.
Sajid to become first PM with a Muslim background?
Has there been a first PM with a Jewish background and if so who was it?
I can't argue on the style - he was very good. Substance, of course, is another matter.
I presume their argument is that it would disrupt “just-in-time” delivery supply chains to UK retailers, due to border queues and WTO paperwork at Dover. But all that would initially happen is congestion at ports. That’s why the UK would ‘throw it borders open’ to mitigate against it.
Even if A50 wasn’t extended it wouldn’t happen in reality because (a) we will get at least 3 months notice of “no deal”, giving suppliers time to source alternative products and suppliers (b) temporary warehouses can be used to stockpile supplies to account for the extra 24-72 hours delays at the borders - it won’t be much more than that (c) the automatic hand of the market will quickly respond to ensure demand is met by alternate supply routes, non-EU sources, domestic suppliers and cargo flights, and (d) prices will adjust accordingly.
This isn’t a blockade or a cessation of trade or repression by a socialist state. It’s a question of managing extra congestion and bureaucracy in a open free trading free market economy, largely related to high volume lorry movements across the channel, and not much else.
Even the very worst case scenario would look nothing like these apocalyptic scenarios.
I suspect that the people saying such don't go to supermarkets and see what food there is and where it comes from.
Let them eat Asparagus.
We apparently have a major obesity problem. Perhaps Brexit will do wonders for our health if the doomsday scenario comes to pass if there is less food to stuff in our faces!
I expect the Waitrose remainer shopper won't be able to cope - those who go to Iceland and Asda will probably improvise and be far better able to handle any disruption!
There are tens of millions in the world who face starvation every day and have no food - so perhaps a little perspective is needed!
I have nailed my colours to the mast many times and do so again this morning: Brexit will not happen.
It seems there are two of us now with this mad prediction. I am joined by Bernard-Henri Levy, who, interviewed in the Spectator, says: "I can tell you this. Brexit will not happen."
Said it since the beginning.
Three of us!
There's plenty who say it shouldn't happen and we will do something e.g. Clegg, but how many still believe it wont?
Charles Grant (Centre for European Reform) gives it 1 - 2% chance according to NewStatesman this week.
I suspect that the people saying such don't go to supermarkets and see what food there is and where it comes from.
Let them eat Asparagus.
We apparently have a major obesity problem. Perhaps Brexit will do wonders for our health if the doomsday scenario comes to pass if there is less food to stuff in our faces!
I expect the Waitrose remainer shopper won't be able to cope - those who go to Iceland and Asda will probably improvise and be far better able to handle any disruption!
There are tens of millions in the world who face starvation every day and have no food - so perhaps a little perspective is needed!
We've got plenty of dogs, cats, and goldfish to eat, when the food runs out.
I suspect that the people saying such don't go to supermarkets and see what food there is and where it comes from.
Let them eat Asparagus.
We apparently have a major obesity problem. Perhaps Brexit will do wonders for our health if the doomsday scenario comes to pass if there is less food to stuff in our faces!
I expect the Waitrose remainer shopper won't be able to cope - those who go to Iceland and Asda will probably improvise and be far better able to handle any disruption!
There are tens of millions in the world who face starvation every day and have no food - so perhaps a little perspective is needed!
If the ports are clogged full of lorries from EU, and the air freight is held up by customs, then Iceland will be just as knackered as the rest.
Mr. F, indeed. The Elgin Marbles would be dust now.
As it happens, I think it would be great if the Elgin Marbles were restored to The Parthenon, so we could see them as they were originally intended to be displayed, but that should be done as an act of generosity, not as a legal obligation.
There is no intent to put them back where they were. The Parthenon was so badly damaged during the Turkish occupation and subsequent pollution has done such a lot of additional damage that it simply isn't practical. But the Greeks do have a fabulous museum where they could be displayed adjacent to the Parthenon.
Even if A50 wasn’t extended it wouldn’t happen in reality because (a) we will get at least 3 months notice of “no deal”, giving suppliers time to source alternative products and suppliers (b) temporary warehouses can be used to stockpile supplies to account for the extra 24-72 hours delays at the borders - it won’t be much more than that (c) the automatic hand of the market will quickly respond to ensure demand is met by alternate supply routes, non-EU sources, domestic suppliers and cargo flights, and (d) prices will adjust accordingly.
This isn’t a blockade or a cessation of trade or repression by a socialist state. It’s a question of managing extra congestion and bureaucracy in a open free trading free market economy, largely related to high volume lorry movements across the channel, and not much else.
Even the very worst case scenario would look nothing like these apocalyptic scenarios.
Have you forgotten the 2000 fuel protests? Logistical disruption and panic buying can have severe consequences, and there wouldn't be an immediate way to bring it to an end that didn't involve kowtowing to the EU.
I suspect that the people saying such don't go to supermarkets and see what food there is and where it comes from.
Let them eat Asparagus.
We apparently have a major obesity problem. Perhaps Brexit will do wonders for our health if the doomsday scenario comes to pass if there is less food to stuff in our faces!
I expect the Waitrose remainer shopper won't be able to cope - those who go to Iceland and Asda will probably improvise and be far better able to handle any disruption!
There are tens of millions in the world who face starvation every day and have no food - so perhaps a little perspective is needed!
We've got plenty of dogs, cats, and goldfish to eat, when the food runs out.
Then there's the Soylent Green. Pensioners or the underclass first into the grinder?
That’s why the UK would ‘throw it borders open’ to mitigate against it.
TAKE BACK CONTROL OF OUR BORDERS !!!
Oh, wait...
Have you ever dealt with customs? I export all around the world. It is largely a seemless process with many firms available to make it even smoother...
I suspect that the people saying such don't go to supermarkets and see what food there is and where it comes from.
Let them eat Asparagus.
We apparently have a major obesity problem. Perhaps Brexit will do wonders for our health if the doomsday scenario comes to pass if there is less food to stuff in our faces!
I expect the Waitrose remainer shopper won't be able to cope - those who go to Iceland and Asda will probably improvise and be far better able to handle any disruption!
There are tens of millions in the world who face starvation every day and have no food - so perhaps a little perspective is needed!
There’s a strong correlation between obesity rates and Leave-voting areas. Perhaps that’s how Remain ultimately wins: by the slimming-down of Leave voters to Remain-voting sizes.
Even if A50 wasn’t extended it wouldn’t happen in reality because (a) we will get at least 3 months notice of “no deal”, giving suppliers time to source alternative products and suppliers (b) temporary warehouses can be used to stockpile supplies to account for the extra 24-72 hours delays at the borders - it won’t be much more than that (c) the automatic hand of the market will quickly respond to ensure demand is met by alternate supply routes, non-EU sources, domestic suppliers and cargo flights, and (d) prices will adjust accordingly.
This isn’t a blockade or a cessation of trade or repression by a socialist state. It’s a question of managing extra congestion and bureaucracy in a open free trading free market economy, largely related to high volume lorry movements across the channel, and not much else.
Even the very worst case scenario would look nothing like these apocalyptic scenarios.
Have you forgotten the 2000 fuel protests? Logistical disruption and panic buying can have severe consequences, and there wouldn't be an immediate way to bring it to an end that didn't involve kowtowing to the EU.
Yes, there would. On Brexit day +1 or +20 we would have identical regulatory positions to the EU. There would be no need for checks.
I suspect that the people saying such don't go to supermarkets and see what food there is and where it comes from.
Let them eat Asparagus.
We apparently have a major obesity problem. Perhaps Brexit will do wonders for our health if the doomsday scenario comes to pass if there is less food to stuff in our faces!
I expect the Waitrose remainer shopper won't be able to cope - those who go to Iceland and Asda will probably improvise and be far better able to handle any disruption!
There are tens of millions in the world who face starvation every day and have no food - so perhaps a little perspective is needed!
We've got plenty of dogs, cats, and goldfish to eat, when the food runs out.
Then there's the Soylent Green. Pensioners or the underclass first into the grinder?
If they're 'handpicked', 'heritage', 'artisan' and 'organic' they'd be worth top money.
I suspect that the people saying such don't go to supermarkets and see what food there is and where it comes from.
Let them eat Asparagus.
We apparently have a major obesity problem. Perhaps Brexit will do wonders for our health if the doomsday scenario comes to pass if there is less food to stuff in our faces!
I expect the Waitrose remainer shopper won't be able to cope - those who go to Iceland and Asda will probably improvise and be far better able to handle any disruption!
There are tens of millions in the world who face starvation every day and have no food - so perhaps a little perspective is needed!
We've got plenty of dogs, cats, and goldfish to eat, when the food runs out.
Then there's the Soylent Green. Pensioners or the underclass first into the grinder?
If they're 'handpicked', 'heritage', 'artisan' and 'organic' they'd be worth top money.
Three days without avocado and London will be burning.
This is important. The Irish border backstop effectively makes Northern Ireland into a Special Economic Zone. Other regions give their eye teeth for that status. Mrs May should be selling the upsides to the DUP. It will unlock the withdrawal agreement and transition
Been posted umpteen times and of course as long as May and Corbyn are in post and committed to Brexit not true
Ok, sorry for repost, wasn't online yesterday.
I note he doesn't say what 'it' is. Could be DD's own career.
McShane is the author of a book ‘Brexit, No Exit’ - you don’t need a PhD in history to realise that his view might not be an entirely impartial source...
This is important. The Irish border backstop effectively makes Northern Ireland into a Special Economic Zone. Other regions give their eye teeth for that status. Mrs May should be selling the upsides to the DUP. It will unlock the withdrawal agreement and transition
I suspect that the people saying such don't go to supermarkets and see what food there is and where it comes from.
Let them eat Asparagus.
We apparently have a major obesity problem. Perhaps Brexit will do wonders for our health if the doomsday scenario comes to pass if there is less food to stuff in our faces!
I expect the Waitrose remainer shopper won't be able to cope - those who go to Iceland and Asda will probably improvise and be far better able to handle any disruption!
There are tens of millions in the world who face starvation every day and have no food - so perhaps a little perspective is needed!
We've got plenty of dogs, cats, and goldfish to eat, when the food runs out.
Then there's the Soylent Green. Pensioners or the underclass first into the grinder?
If they're 'handpicked', 'heritage', 'artisan' and 'organic' they'd be worth top money.
I suspect that the people saying such don't go to supermarkets and see what food there is and where it comes from.
Let them eat Asparagus.
We apparently have a major obesity problem. Perhaps Brexit will do wonders for our health if the doomsday scenario comes to pass if there is less food to stuff in our faces!
I expect the Waitrose remainer shopper won't be able to cope - those who go to Iceland and Asda will probably improvise and be far better able to handle any disruption!
There are tens of millions in the world who face starvation every day and have no food - so perhaps a little perspective is needed!
We've got plenty of dogs, cats, and goldfish to eat, when the food runs out.
Then there's the Soylent Green. Pensioners or the underclass first into the grinder?
If they're 'handpicked', 'heritage', 'artisan' and 'organic' they'd be worth top money.
Have to be the oldies then. Aged, air dried baby boomer, hand reared by the welfare state.
Strong comments from Sajid Javid on the Andrew Marr show regarding the Muslim Council of Britain. "The Muslim Council of Britain does not represent Muslims in this country. We don't deal with the MCB because too many of their members have made favourable comments on extremists."
They also refuse to acknowledge and represent all Muslims, some are not welcome in the MCB (to put it mildly).
ITV should bring back Spitting Image, just to wind up the Corbynista cult.
They don't need to do a single sketch about Labour, there's hours if not series worth of material from the Conservative side to work with.
It would be really easy to send up May, Johnson, Davis, Javid and Gove but the only problem is real life is so much funnier than anything the puppeteers could come up with.
Re bands / ticket prices...the freakonomics episode on this was very interesting and the reality is a little different to perception.
One change not mentioned below, most bands are now signed to 360 deals. In the past, the record was a joint venture with the label and the tour was mostly all the bands to make money off. Now labels take a large percentage of everything, from tickets to merch, plus incredibly it isn’t uncommon now for support acts to be charged to appear (not even play for free).
I have asked over and over again what form of 'soft Brexit' Remainers think exists that does not involve freedom of movement. Once someone provides an answer, then we can discuss how people may or may not react to this. No deal that includes FOM will produce the sort of reaction that you envisage.
The problem that is occurring in negotiations is that no such deal exists.
Yes, interesting that you and HYUFD (who is much softer than you) are making the same point. I think the Government instinct will be to fudge it if they can (almost no MPs are REALLY worried about FOM, they're worried that voters are worried). Not sure how practical it is without going hard. If it's not practical, I think they'll leave it alone and throw up a haze of "transitional", "subject to review", etc. Because UKIP is a busted flush, Conservatives will reckon they can get away with it, and quite possibly they're right, beause they will still be seen as more anti-FOM than Labour in principle.
Well, this gets to the heart of the HYUFD 'conflict' - he would probably be happy with something that looks like it ends FOM but doesn't really. Obviously I don't agree.
All I would say was that Cameron risked his entire premiership on the idea that you can do a fudge with the EU, call it something else ('special status'), repeat it over and over again and that people will believe it. As I recall, this unravelled after less than a week.
I can't see the EU making genuine concessions on FOM - if they would, the whole thing would have been over a few months after the referendum (EEA with restrictions on FOM would have been taken back then in a flash). So unless you think Leavers will back down on FOM I suspect we have a problem....
The EU's primary concern is regulatory conformance. FoM is a second order concern. If we sign up to the whole SM+CU+CAP+ECJ caboodle, I suspect the EU would allow limited constraints on FoM. My hypothesis would need testing. The EU would insist on agreed rules for those constraints, partly so it can reciprocate. The UK would therefore be unable to accept or deny according to its own criteria. The EU would also insist on equal treatment for all is nationalities.
I think being told what to do as a client state of the EU will be the problem. Not FoM.
I'm far from convinced about all this "Doomsday" nonsense. It's Project Fear once again but this time meant to terrify people into accepting whatever guff May and Davis dish up at the end of the tortuous A50 process.
Of course, anarchy, food shortages and the like are not to be encouraged but anyone with half a functioning brain cell knows this kind of apocalyptic drivel is about as convincing as me tipping the Derby winner (missed again yesterday).
It strongly suggests a position of weakness but needless to say all the apologists for the Government are getting ready to support whatever thin gruel is offered. The only "red line" left seems to be Freedom of Movement - almost anything else will do it seems whether it be BINO, a form of CU or a confused transitional status for Ulster which no one outside the DUP will care about.
The Conservatives will then try to dress up this piece of tat as a "blueprint for a Global Britain" with roadshows, leaflets and a disinformation campaign which will make REMAIN's efforts in 2016 look tame.
My understanding was that even when the Greek government took advice on pursuing legal action over the stones the advice was it was not certain they would win and so they decided not to go that route, therefore to take a coldly practical view of things, if we were to give them back what would they give us for them?
ITV should bring back Spitting Image, just to wind up the Corbynista cult.
They don't need to do a single sketch about Labour, there's hours if not series worth of material from the Conservative side to work with.
It would be really easy to send up May, Johnson, Davis, Javid and Gove but the only problem is real life is so much funnier than anything the puppeteers could come up with.
Sadly, since they’re allegedly in power. Any SI sketch would have to add in Arlene Foster’s pocket.
This is important. The Irish border backstop effectively makes Northern Ireland into a Special Economic Zone. Other regions give their eye teeth for that status. Mrs May should be selling the upsides to the DUP. It will unlock the withdrawal agreement and transition
Brussels doesnt understand the UK, example number 60,788
In this case I might agree with you. It doesn't matter though. Brussels didn't choose to have Brexit but it is having a relatively good Brexit. We're not.
The EU is setting the agenda, is in control of the timetable, maximizing the opportunities in favour of its members, is substantially containing the fallout and is unified so far.
I have asked over and over again what form of 'soft Brexit' Remainers think exists that does not involve freedom of movement. Once someone provides an answer, then we can discuss how people may or may not react to this. No deal that includes FOM will produce the sort of reaction that you envisage.
The problem that is occurring in negotiations is that no such deal exists.
Yes, interesting that you and HYUFD (who is much softer than you) are making the same point. I think the Government instinct will be to fudge it if they can (almost no MPs are REALLY worried about FOM, they're worried that voters are worried). Not sure how practical it is without going hard. If it's not practical, I think they'll leave it alone and throw up a haze of "transitional", "subject to review", etc. Because UKIP is a busted flush, Conservatives will reckon they can get away with it, and quite possibly they're right, beause they will still be seen as more anti-FOM than Labour in principle.
Well, this gets to the heart of the HYUFD 'conflict' - he would probably be happy with something that looks like it ends FOM but doesn't really. Obviously I don't agree.
All I would say was that Cameron risked his entire premiership on the idea that you can do a fudge with the EU, call it something else ('special status'), repeat it over and over again and that people will believe it. As I recall, this unravelled after less than a week.
I can't see the EU making genuine concessions on FOM - if they would, the whole thing would have been over a few months after the referendum (EEA with restrictions on FOM would have been taken back then in a flash). So unless you think Leavers will back down on FOM I suspect we have a problem....
The EU's primary concern is regulatory conformance. FoM is a second order concern. If we sign up to the whole SM+CU+CAP+ECJ caboodle, I suspect the EU would allow limited constraints on FoM. My hypothesis would need testing. The EU would insist on agreed rules for those constraints, partly so it can reciprocate. The UK would therefore be unable to accept or deny according to its own criteria. The EU would also insist on equal treatment for all is nationalities.
I think being told what to do as a client state of the EU will be the problem. Not FoM.
Indeed. Particularly as we need the workforce, so they'll be here one way or another, assuming there is still the demand to work here.
I'm far from convinced about all this "Doomsday" nonsense. It's Project Fear once again but this time meant to terrify people into accepting whatever guff May and Davis dish up at the end of the tortuous A50 process.
Of course, anarchy, food shortages and the like are not to be encouraged but anyone with half a functioning brain cell knows this kind of apocalyptic drivel is about as convincing as me tipping the Derby winner (missed again yesterday).
It strongly suggests a position of weakness but needless to say all the apologists for the Government are getting ready to support whatever thin gruel is offered. The only "red line" left seems to be Freedom of Movement - almost anything else will do it seems whether it be BINO, a form of CU or a confused transitional status for Ulster which no one outside the DUP will care about.
The Conservatives will then try to dress up this piece of tat as a "blueprint for a Global Britain" with roadshows, leaflets and a disinformation campaign which will make REMAIN's efforts in 2016 look tame.
I think it interesting that this project fear, reasonable or not, appears to be hoped for from groups from both remain and leave. Is it about keeping us in after all, or accepting as triumph the awful deal we do get? Both?
I have asked over and over again what form of 'soft Brexit' Remainers think exists that does not involve freedom of movement. Once someone provides an answer, then we can discuss how people may or may not react to this. No deal that includes FOM will produce the sort of reaction that you envisage.
The problem that is occurring in negotiations is that no such deal exists.
Yes, interesting that you and HYUFD (who is much softer than you) are making the same point. I think the Government instinct will be to fudge it if they can (almost no MPs are REALLY worried about FOM, they're worried that voters are worried). Not sure how practical it is without going hard. If it's not practical, I think they'll leave it alone and throw up a haze of "transitional", "subject to review", etc. Because UKIP is a busted flush, Conservatives will reckon they can get away with it, and quite possibly they're right, beause they will still be seen as more anti-FOM than Labour in principle.
Well, this gets to the heart of the HYUFD 'conflict' - he would probably be happy with something that looks like it ends FOM but doesn't really. Obviously I don't agree.
All I would say was that Cameron risked his entire premiership on the idea that you can do a fudge with the EU, call it something else ('special status'), repeat it over and over again and that people will believe it. As I recall, this unravelled after less than a week.
I can't see the EU making genuine concessions on FOM - if they would, the whole thing would have been over a few months after the referendum (EEA with restrictions on FOM would have been taken back then in a flash). So unless you think Leavers will back down on FOM I suspect we have a problem....
The EU's primary concern is regulatory conformance. FoM is a second order concern. If we sign up to the whole SM+CU+CAP+ECJ caboodle, I suspect the EU would allow limited constraints on FoM. My hypothesis would need testing. The EU would insist on agreed rules for those constraints, partly so it can reciprocate. The UK would therefore be unable to accept or deny according to its own criteria. The EU would also insist on equal treatment for all is nationalities.
I think being told what to do as a client state of the EU will be the problem. Not FoM.
Of course we are still owed the transition controls on free movement from the new EU accession countries Blair could have taken from 2004-2011 like most EU nations but refused to do.
"Iain Duncan Smith, the former Tory leader, said: “They are frozen in the headlights. They should be planning for what happens if there is no deal, not scaring the pants off each other. We need people with imagination and courage, not frightened rabbits.”
The whole story is *literally* about the planning they are doing for a no deal Brexit.
Looks like they thr outrage mob have moved on from the bbc front page guy.
Maybe it is just me, but I don’t find Tracey Ullman in the slightest bit funny.
A bit hit and miss. Loads of prosthetics a successful impressionist does not make.
Got bored with it fairly quickly, TBH!
In other news, just seen a very tempting football match; Andorra vs Cabo Verde. Wonder how the latter’s players will cope with the mountains of Andorra.
Just had time to sit down and read today’s STimes. Hidden on p2 is a comment that the PMs customs partnership plan has been ‘ditched’ as it is unworkable. Good.
We have to be able to transition, slowly, out of regulatory alignment if we’re to be able to thrive as a self governing entity.
Returning the Parthenon Marbles to Greece is madness. It would be signing the death warrant of the British Museum, the greatest in the world.
We can add another great British institution to those which Jeremy Corbyn wishes to destroy.
Losing the Parthenon Marbles might be a blow to the British Museum but as it has over 8 million works in its permanent collection and more in storage I expect it would survive.
After all it is supposed to be 'the British Museum' not 'the Parthenon Marbles Museum'
My understanding was that even when the Greek government took advice on pursuing legal action over the stones the advice was it was not certain they would win and so they decided not to go that route, therefore to take a coldly practical view of things, if we were to give them back what would they give us for them?
Just had time to sit down and read today’s STimes. Hidden on p2 is a comment that the PMs customs partnership plan has been ‘ditched’ as it is unworkable. Good.
We have to be able to transition, slowly, out of regulatory alignment if we’re to be able to thrive as a self governing entity.
Did you notice that buried in the David Davis Northern Ireland story was the news that he has accepted that Max Fac won't work?
Just had time to sit down and read today’s STimes. Hidden on p2 is a comment that the PMs customs partnership plan has been ‘ditched’ as it is unworkable. Good.
We have to be able to transition, slowly, out of regulatory alignment if we’re to be able to thrive as a self governing entity.
Did you notice that buried in the David Davis Northern Ireland story was the news that he has accepted that Max Fac won't work?
I think it was ‘yet’, wasn’t it?
Customs transition is the obvious fudge. Maybe staged till 2024/5, but with us having already left the EU and with no MEPs.
Just had time to sit down and read today’s STimes. Hidden on p2 is a comment that the PMs customs partnership plan has been ‘ditched’ as it is unworkable. Good.
We have to be able to transition, slowly, out of regulatory alignment if we’re to be able to thrive as a self governing entity.
Did you notice that buried in the David Davis Northern Ireland story was the news that he has accepted that Max Fac won't work?
I think it was ‘yet’, wasn’t it?
Customs transition is the obvious fudge. Maybe staged till 2024/5, but with us having already left the EU and with no MEPs.
What was that about taking back control? Still, if it means Farage et al are back in their anonymity.....
I'm far from convinced about all this "Doomsday" nonsense. It's Project Fear once again but this time meant to terrify people into accepting whatever guff May and Davis dish up at the end of the tortuous A50 process.
Of course, anarchy, food shortages and the like are not to be encouraged but anyone with half a functioning brain cell knows this kind of apocalyptic drivel is about as convincing as me tipping the Derby winner (missed again yesterday).
It strongly suggests a position of weakness but needless to say all the apologists for the Government are getting ready to support whatever thin gruel is offered. The only "red line" left seems to be Freedom of Movement - almost anything else will do it seems whether it be BINO, a form of CU or a confused transitional status for Ulster which no one outside the DUP will care about.
The Conservatives will then try to dress up this piece of tat as a "blueprint for a Global Britain" with roadshows, leaflets and a disinformation campaign which will make REMAIN's efforts in 2016 look tame.
Key point. Leavers who aren't signed up Tories can blame the Conservatives as well as Remoaners and a wilful EU for the consequences of their vote to Leave the EU. Not great for the Conservatives.
Just had time to sit down and read today’s STimes. Hidden on p2 is a comment that the PMs customs partnership plan has been ‘ditched’ as it is unworkable. Good.
We have to be able to transition, slowly, out of regulatory alignment if we’re to be able to thrive as a self governing entity.
Did you notice that buried in the David Davis Northern Ireland story was the news that he has accepted that Max Fac won't work?
I think it was ‘yet’, wasn’t it?
Customs transition is the obvious fudge. Maybe staged till 2024/5, but with us having already left the EU and with no MEPs.
What was that about taking back control? Still, if it means Farage et al are back in their anonymity.....
Brexit is process, not an event.
We’d have more control over our laws immediately, and far more over regulations in 5 or so years. Would you prefer we had less permanently (vassal state) or take an economic hit (WTO). Inquiring minds wander what the sniping Remainers want....?
Comments
https://twitter.com/DouglasCarswell/status/1003181271131082752
https://twitter.com/MatthewOToole2/status/1003193696664375296
It seems there are two of us now with this mad prediction. I am joined by Bernard-Henri Levy, who, interviewed in the Spectator, says: "I can tell you this. Brexit will not happen."
I think Nick Palmer is fundamentally wrong. A BINO will anger a lot of people. It was the highest turnout sine 1997. Wherever you stand on immigration it is a major political concern for voters. All the government would be able to do after a BINO is shrug their shoulders and say there's not a lot they can do. And people aren't going to buy the idea that it's just too difficult. They'll smell a rat and regard it as sabotage. Which given the Remain led government we have won't be difficult.
And what about the 48% - not to be forgotten! I was one of them but a situation where we leave the EU and lose influence whilst having to follow all the rules. Ridiculous.
All I would say was that Cameron risked his entire premiership on the idea that you can do a fudge with the EU, call it something else ('special status'), repeat it over and over again and that people will believe it. As I recall, this unravelled after less than a week.
I can't see the EU making genuine concessions on FOM - if they would, the whole thing would have been over a few months after the referendum (EEA with restrictions on FOM would have been taken back then in a flash). So unless you think Leavers will back down on FOM I suspect we have a problem....
But they even require you to show passports at Kerry airport where the only regular daily flights are from Dublin, Luton and Stansted. So much for the D
common travel area! On return to the UK no ID is required as RoI flights are treated as domestic arrivals.
Laws are ignored when they contradict the interest of power.
Whatever deal is done with the EU if it can be done something, eg work permits needs to replace FOM
Sajid to become first PM with a Muslim background?
Has there been a first PM with a Jewish background and if so who was it?
I also find it hard to believe that MPs aren't much concerned about free movement. It was certainly an eye opener for me to see the see impeccably metropolitan technocrat crossbencher Lord Turner state that had the referendum simply been a matter of immigration he would have supported leave.
Was John Major the first PM with a working class background?
Sunday = Reamain Day. Mon-Fri = Leave Days
It's very odd but there's definitely a pattern emerging...
I keep a political list on Twitter, and it seems to collectively think Javid had quite a performance on Marr.
It would undoubtedly be a good thing* if he were to succeed May.
*for my wallet.
Even if A50 wasn’t extended it wouldn’t happen in reality because (a) we will get at least 3 months notice of “no deal”, giving suppliers time to source alternative products and suppliers (b) temporary warehouses can be used to stockpile supplies to account for the extra 24-72 hours delays at the borders - it won’t be much more than that (c) the automatic hand of the market will quickly respond to ensure demand is met by alternate supply routes, non-EU sources, domestic suppliers and cargo flights, and (d) prices will adjust accordingly.
This isn’t a blockade or a cessation of trade or repression by a socialist state. It’s a question of managing extra congestion and bureaucracy in a open free trading free market economy, largely related to high volume lorry movements across the channel, and not much else.
Even the very worst case scenario would look nothing like these apocalyptic scenarios.
Or could Sajid Javid also become the first PM with a working class background?
Oh, wait...
I expect the Waitrose remainer shopper won't be able to cope - those who go to Iceland and Asda will probably improvise and be far better able to handle any disruption!
There are tens of millions in the world who face starvation every day and have no food - so perhaps a little perspective is needed!
There's plenty who say it shouldn't happen and we will do something e.g. Clegg, but how many still believe it wont?
Charles Grant (Centre for European Reform) gives it 1 - 2% chance according to NewStatesman this week.
Though I agree Javid was good
They're not going to return those horses they stole either.
I note he doesn't say what 'it' is. Could be DD's own career.
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1002568817229385728
We can add another great British institution to those which Jeremy Corbyn wishes to destroy.
Aged, air dried baby boomer, hand reared by the welfare state.
It would be really easy to send up May, Johnson, Davis, Javid and Gove but the only problem is real life is so much funnier than anything the puppeteers could come up with.
One change not mentioned below, most bands are now signed to 360 deals. In the past, the record was a joint venture with the label and the tour was mostly all the bands to make money off. Now labels take a large percentage of everything, from tickets to merch, plus incredibly it isn’t uncommon now for support acts to be charged to appear (not even play for free).
I think being told what to do as a client state of the EU will be the problem. Not FoM.
https://twitter.com/Baddiel/status/1003016567574138880
Maybe it is just me, but I don’t find Tracey Ullman in the slightest bit funny.
I'm far from convinced about all this "Doomsday" nonsense. It's Project Fear once again but this time meant to terrify people into accepting whatever guff May and Davis dish up at the end of the tortuous A50 process.
Of course, anarchy, food shortages and the like are not to be encouraged but anyone with half a functioning brain cell knows this kind of apocalyptic drivel is about as convincing as me tipping the Derby winner (missed again yesterday).
It strongly suggests a position of weakness but needless to say all the apologists for the Government are getting ready to support whatever thin gruel is offered. The only "red line" left seems to be Freedom of Movement - almost anything else will do it seems whether it be BINO, a form of CU or a confused transitional status for Ulster which no one outside the DUP will care about.
The Conservatives will then try to dress up this piece of tat as a "blueprint for a Global Britain" with roadshows, leaflets and a disinformation campaign which will make REMAIN's efforts in 2016 look tame.
Moment no 1356 was salisbury incident being faked raised over supper (I work near to Salisbury)
The EU is setting the agenda, is in control of the timetable, maximizing the opportunities in favour of its members, is substantially containing the fallout and is unified so far.
So the EU could at least allow us to bank those
The whole story is *literally* about the planning they are doing for a no deal Brexit.
In other news, just seen a very tempting football match; Andorra vs Cabo Verde. Wonder how the latter’s players will cope with the mountains of Andorra.
We have to be able to transition, slowly, out of regulatory alignment if we’re to be able to thrive as a self governing entity.
After all it is supposed to be 'the British Museum' not 'the Parthenon Marbles Museum'
Customs transition is the obvious fudge. Maybe staged till 2024/5, but with us having already left the EU and with no MEPs.
We’d have more control over our laws immediately, and far more over regulations in 5 or so years. Would you prefer we had less permanently (vassal state) or take an economic hit (WTO). Inquiring minds wander what the sniping Remainers want....?