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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn’s Opinium net approval ratings trail both Cable and May by 10 points

The May Opinium poll for the Observer is just including what is the only leader approval ratings series from any UK pollster.

Read the full story here

HYUFD

This poll on UNS would see the Tories gain 15 seats from Labour (including that of Ms Dent Coad) for an overall majority of 14, virtually identical to Cameron's 2015 majority

rcs1000

Cable is only on -8 because 92% of the population didn't know who he was, while the other 8% thought him a tosser.

rcs1000

Jonathan said:

rcs1000 said:

Cyclefree said:

And I am instinctively wary of those groups who want to rip everything up and start again. In politics that has usually resulted in a lot of destruction and misery and very little constructive achievement to show for it.

There is an example right in front of us but the name escapes me for the moment......

If you don't mind a techy read, this is an excellent article on that very phenomenon: https://www.joelonsoftware.com/2000/04/06/things-you-should-never-do-part-i/

Had lunch with Joel Spolsky once. Nice bloke.

Jealous. I think his blog (when he wrote it) was excellent.

oxfordsimon

How long before the usual suspect pops up to tell us to ignore all mid-term polling because it is totally useless?

FrankBooth

rcs1000 said:

Cable is only on -8 because 92% of the population didn't know who he was, while the other 8% thought him a tosser.

I suspect he is quite well known actually. I'm sorry to say that your hostility hardly surprises me and you dislike Cable because the city boys have been losing the argument for 10 years. Deal with it or come up with a more popular prospectus.

rcs1000

FrankBooth said:

rcs1000 said:

Cable is only on -8 because 92% of the population didn't know who he was, while the other 8% thought him a tosser.

I suspect he is quite well known actually. I'm sorry to say that your hostility hardly surprises me and you dislike Cable because the city boys have been losing the argument for 10 years. Deal with it or come up with a more popular prospectus.

He drones. That is my objection.

FrankBooth

rcs1000 said:

FrankBooth said:

rcs1000 said:

Cable is only on -8 because 92% of the population didn't know who he was, while the other 8% thought him a tosser.

I suspect he is quite well known actually. I'm sorry to say that your hostility hardly surprises me and you dislike Cable because the city boys have been losing the argument for 10 years. Deal with it or come up with a more popular prospectus.

He drones. That is my objection.

Oh really? I detect sour grapes.

MarkHopkins

CON 43 (+3)
LAB 39 (-1)

AndyJS

13 Con poll leads in a row.

FrankBooth

There is a legitimate criticism to be made of Vince that he appears to have made a volte face on a second referendum since becoming Lib Dem leader.

Andrew

FrankBooth said:

There is a legitimate criticism to be made of Vince that he appears to have made a volte face on a second referendum since becoming Lib Dem leader.

Don't think I remember him saying anything at all as leader. He makes Iain Duncan Smith look like a motormouth.

Benpointer

AndyJS said:

13 Con poll leads in a row.

They should call an election!

FrankBooth

Andrew said:

FrankBooth said:

There is a legitimate criticism to be made of Vince that he appears to have made a volte face on a second referendum since becoming Lib Dem leader.

Don't think I remember him saying anything at all as leader. He makes Iain Duncan Smith look like a motormouth.

To be fair he does only have a dozen MPs.

justin124

HYUFD said:

This poll on UNS would see the Tories gain 15 seats from Labour (including that of Ms Dent Coad) for an overall majority of 14, virtually identical to Cameron's 2015 majority

On a swing of 0.75% there would actually be 11 Tory gains at Labour expense. It might be worth bearing in mind too that most of those seats would have Labour MPs who might reasonably expect a first term incumbency bonus.

RobD

MarkHopkins said:

CON 43 (+3)
LAB 39 (-1)

Gold standard?

justin124

AndyJS said:

13 Con poll leads in a row.

There has been one tie too!

kle4

A whole 10 points, huh? No doubt Corbyn is devastated.

Also, why would Cable's score have improved? Has he done anything recently that I was not aware of?

justin124

kle4 said:

A whole 10 points, huh? No doubt Corbyn is devastated.

Also, why would Cable's score have improved? Has he done anything recently that I was not aware of?

Some LibDem success at the Local Elections possibly - though that is not reflected in their recorded vote share here.

steve_garner

kle4 said:

A whole 10 points, huh? No doubt Corbyn is devastated.

Also, why would Cable's score have improved? Has he done anything recently that I was not aware of?

Corbyn may not be devastated but he should be doing better. His churlish and joyless decision not to congratulate Harry and Meghan today is probably on the wrong side of public opinion.

DavidL

We don’t like politicians much do we? Another thing the great British public get right.

DavidL

steve_garner said:

kle4 said:

A whole 10 points, huh? No doubt Corbyn is devastated.

Also, why would Cable's score have improved? Has he done anything recently that I was not aware of?

Corbyn may not be devastated but he should be doing better. His churlish and joyless decision not to congratulate Harry and Meghan today is probably on the wrong side of public opinion.

It probably didn’t affect their nuptials unduly.

TheScreamingEagles

I remember the days when Mrs May had a 69% lead over Mr Corbyn.

Within weeks he had a 4% lead.

kle4

steve_garner said:

kle4 said:

A whole 10 points, huh? No doubt Corbyn is devastated.

Also, why would Cable's score have improved? Has he done anything recently that I was not aware of?

Corbyn may not be devastated but he should be doing better. His churlish and joyless decision not to congratulate Harry and Meghan today is probably on the wrong side of public opinion.

How will public opinion find out about it (particularly if he tweets something, say, tomorrow)? No one will remember. And yes, he should be doing better, but given what happened last time he's not going to panic no matter what polls say, even if what happened last time is no guarantee on next time.

Freggles

Benpointer said:

AndyJS said:

13 Con poll leads in a row.

They should call an election!

Con Maj Nailed On!

Labour will have to disband!

Freggles

Con gain Bootle

FrancisUrquhart

What a miserable git....

It was Labour MP Dennis Skinner who perhaps best captured the caustic mood of those left cold by the happy couple’s big day. Posting a “do not disturb sign” on his Twitter account, the Beast of Bolsover, displayed a four point checklist: “Newspaper in the bin. CHECK; TV unplugged. CHECK; Radio, batteries removed. CHECK; Twitter feed disabled. CHECK; Have a lovely day.”

TheScreamingEagles

I'm quite disappointed by this wedding, where was the Pippa Middleton de nos jours?

Freggles

TheScreamingEagles said:

I'm quite disappointed by this wedding, where was the Pippa Middleton de nos jours?

They learned from last time.

TheScreamingEagles

Freggles said:

Con gain Bootle

We've moved on.

The new target is Con gain Scotland.

TheScreamingEagles

https://twitter.com/AEHALL1983/status/997921351502614528

HYUFD

kle4 said:

steve_garner said:

kle4 said:

A whole 10 points, huh? No doubt Corbyn is devastated.

Also, why would Cable's score have improved? Has he done anything recently that I was not aware of?

Corbyn may not be devastated but he should be doing better. His churlish and joyless decision not to congratulate Harry and Meghan today is probably on the wrong side of public opinion.

How will public opinion find out about it (particularly if he tweets something, say, tomorrow)? No one will remember. And yes, he should be doing better, but given what happened last time he's not going to panic no matter what polls say, even if what happened last time is no guarantee on next time.

Last time the Tories got 43% in GB, they are now still on 43%. Labour is down 2% from the 42% they got last time.

All Corbyn did last time was squeeze the leftwing LD, Green, SNP and UKIP voters behind him, he made virtually no net gains from the Tories in terms of voters on 2015. Next time he has little more leftwing voters to squeeze and will have to win over Tories to become PM, this poll confirms he is still a long way from doing that

FrancisUrquhart

TheScreamingEagles said:

twitter.com/AEHALL1983/status/997921351502614528

Is that not a tad shall we a say condescending...if I told mrs urquhart I could
Help her unlock her talent, I will be sleeping outside with the dog (if I am lucky), or be looking for a new significant other (if she isn’t feeling so generous).

Foxy

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/AEHALL1983/status/997921351502614528

Though she didnt break through in Britain, she broke through in Obama's USA. .

oxfordsimon

TheScreamingEagles said:

I remember the days when Mrs May had a 69% lead over Mr Corbyn.

Within weeks he had a 4% lead.

But that process has now happened and things have realigned. It is not as if Corbyn is coming as a surprise package any longer.

HYUFD

Freggles said:

Con gain Bootle

Not quite, though on this poll the Tories would gain Kensington, Dudley North, Newcastle Under Lyme, Crewe and Nantwich, Canterbury, Barrow and Furness, Keighley, Ashfield, Stroud, Bishop Auckland and Peterborough from Labour.
http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative

oxfordsimon

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/AEHALL1983/status/997921351502614528

It is that sort of facile, patronising identity politics that is damaging the Left. They need to start looking at unlocking the potential of individuals based on their talents not their skin colour.

Benpointer

oxfordsimon said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I remember the days when Mrs May had a 69% lead over Mr Corbyn.

Within weeks he had a 4% lead.

But that process has now happened and things have realigned. It is not as if Corbyn is coming as a surprise package any longer.

Haha - please keep on believing that pal!

kle4

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

twitter.com/AEHALL1983/status/997921351502614528

Is that not a tad shall we a say condescending

I believe James Cleverly spent the afternoon that came out tweeting photos of Tory BAME candidates who hadn't needed Labour to unlock their talent.

Even a super lefty friend of mine thought it a very ill judged message, although clearly it didn't harm them any, and it's not like any political party gets all its messages right, the Tories certainly do not.

FrancisUrquhart said:

What a miserable git....

It was Labour MP Dennis Skinner who perhaps best captured the caustic mood of those left cold by the happy couple’s big day. Posting a “do not disturb sign” on his Twitter account, the Beast of Bolsover, displayed a four point checklist: “Newspaper in the bin. CHECK; TV unplugged. CHECK; Radio, batteries removed. CHECK; Twitter feed disabled. CHECK; Have a lovely day.”

You know Mr Skinner, you could have just gone outside, or read a book, you didn't need to unplug everything. And why buy a paper in the first place if you intended to throw it away?
Wouldn't a more powerful and effective demonstration of not being interested in the royal wedding have been to just not mention it, and go about your day?

Sunil_Prasannan

TheScreamingEagles said:

Freggles said:

Con gain Bootle

We've moved on.

The new target is Con gain Scotland.

Dave at GE2015 = 1 Scottish Seat
Theresa at GE2017 = 13 Scottish Seats

TheScreamingEagles

Could have been worse, he could have called her a completely different name like Stormy,

https://twitter.com/rosskempsell/status/997911666716217344

HYUFD

Foxy said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/AEHALL1983/status/997921351502614528

Though she didnt break through in Britain, she broke through in Obama's USA. .

I would say the first mixed race member of the British royal family is breaking Britain by any definition, following on of course from the first BAME Home Secretary being a Tory

kle4

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

steve_garner said:

kle4 said:

A whole 10 points, huh? No doubt Corbyn is devastated.

Also, why would Cable's score have improved? Has he done anything recently that I was not aware of?

Corbyn may not be devastated but he should be doing better. His churlish and joyless decision not to congratulate Harry and Meghan today is probably on the wrong side of public opinion.

How will public opinion find out about it (particularly if he tweets something, say, tomorrow)? No one will remember. And yes, he should be doing better, but given what happened last time he's not going to panic no matter what polls say, even if what happened last time is no guarantee on next time.

Last time the Tories got 43% in GB, they are now still on 43%. Labour is down 2% from the 42% they got last time.

All Corbyn did last time was squeeze the leftwing LD, Green, SNP and UKIP voters behind him, he made virtually no net gains from the Tories in terms of voters on 2015. Next time he has little more leftwing voters to squeeze and will have to win over Tories to become PM, this poll confirms he is still a long way from doing that

As I said, he should be doing better (if, in the absence of anything else, we still take something away from polling). I just don't think being on the wrong end of public opinion through not sending a congrats message (yet) will figure into anything.

SquareRoot

Corbyn did , does and always will talk via his anus.. What he says is just bullshit.

TheScreamingEagles

HYUFD said:

Foxy said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/AEHALL1983/status/997921351502614528

Though she didnt break through in Britain, she broke through in Obama's USA. .

I would say the first mixed race member of the British royal family is breaking Britain by any definition, following on of course from the first BAME Home Secretary being a Tory

The first? You're showing your ignorance.

Charlotte of Mecklenburg-Strelitz was the first mixed race member of the British Royal Family.

kle4

Benpointer said:

oxfordsimon said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I remember the days when Mrs May had a 69% lead over Mr Corbyn.

Within weeks he had a 4% lead.

But that process has now happened and things have realigned. It is not as if Corbyn is coming as a surprise package any longer.

Haha - please keep on believing that pal!

It could be true. I think that it would be a mistake to assume that to be the case, very complacent, and I happen to think the chances of him winning are fairly high, but automatic dismissal of any signs he is not doing great would also be a complacent error from any Corbyn fans.

HYUFD

TheScreamingEagles said:

I'm quite disappointed by this wedding, where was the Pippa Middleton de nos jours?

The Rev Michael Curry?

TheScreamingEagles

Just imagine how far I could have gone if Jeremy Corbyn had helped unlock my talent.

kle4

TheScreamingEagles said:

Just imagine how far I could have gone if Jeremy Corbyn had helped unlock my talent.

You'd have overthrown OGH as Editor?

Benpointer

Tories beginning to draw ahead in the polls as May pursues an ever softer Brexit. Fancy that!

Sunil_Prasannan

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

Foxy said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/AEHALL1983/status/997921351502614528

Though she didnt break through in Britain, she broke through in Obama's USA. .

I would say the first mixed race member of the British royal family is breaking Britain by any definition, following on of course from the first BAME Home Secretary being a Tory

The first? You're showing your ignorance.

Charlotte of Mecklenburg-Strelitz was the first mixed race member of the British Royal Family.

She was?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charlotte_of_Mecklenburg-Strelitz

kle4

When will someone help me, a member of the white lower middle classes, unlock my talent? Or more to the point, who will help me if I have no talent to unlock?

HYUFD

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

Foxy said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/AEHALL1983/status/997921351502614528

Though she didnt break through in Britain, she broke through in Obama's USA. .

I would say the first mixed race member of the British royal family is breaking Britain by any definition, following on of course from the first BAME Home Secretary being a Tory

The first? You're showing your ignorance.

Charlotte of Mecklenburg-Strelitz was the first mixed race member of the British Royal Family.

I don't think being the daughter of the Duke of a small north German duchy quite counts as mixed race

kle4

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

Foxy said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/AEHALL1983/status/997921351502614528

Though she didnt break through in Britain, she broke through in Obama's USA. .

I would say the first mixed race member of the British royal family is breaking Britain by any definition, following on of course from the first BAME Home Secretary being a Tory

The first? You're showing your ignorance.

Charlotte of Mecklenburg-Strelitz was the first mixed race member of the British Royal Family.

She was?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charlotte_of_Mecklenburg-Strelitz

According to Mario de Valdes y Cocom, Charlotte may have had African ancestry, via descent from Margarita de Castro e Souza, a 15th-century Portuguese noblewoman, who traced her ancestry to King Afonso III of Portugal (1210–1279) and one of his mistresses, Madragana (c. 1230–?).[36]

Critics of Valdes's theory point out that Margarita's and Madragana's distant perch in the queen's family tree – nine and 15 generations removed, respectively – makes any African ancestry that they bequeathed to Charlotte negligible and even doubt whether Madragana was black.

Go back so many centuries I'd assume we were all mixed race.

Sunil_Prasannan

TheScreamingEagles said:

I'm quite disappointed by this wedding, where was the Pippa Middleton de nos jours?

I'm sure I spotted Camilla

TheScreamingEagles

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

Foxy said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/AEHALL1983/status/997921351502614528

Though she didnt break through in Britain, she broke through in Obama's USA. .

I would say the first mixed race member of the British royal family is breaking Britain by any definition, following on of course from the first BAME Home Secretary being a Tory

The first? You're showing your ignorance.

Charlotte of Mecklenburg-Strelitz was the first mixed race member of the British Royal Family.

I don't think being the daughter of the Duke of a small north German duchy quite counts as mixed race

She had black African ancestry in her genes.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/meghan-markle-prince-harry-engaged-royal-wedding-mixed-race-black-princess-british-monarchy-history-a8079251.html

TheScreamingEagles

kle4 said:

When will someone help me, a member of the white lower middle classes, unlock my talent? Or more to the point, who will help me if I have no talent to unlock?

The Tory Party, we made IDS leader, a man no talents.

Sunil_Prasannan

TheScreamingEagles said:

Just imagine how far I could have gone if Jeremy Corbyn had helped unlock my talent.

You could be driving buses Trams in Sheffield Rotherham Parkgate

HYUFD

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

steve_garner said:

kle4 said:

A whole 10 points, huh? No doubt Corbyn is devastated.

Also, why would Cable's score have improved? Has he done anything recently that I was not aware of?

Corbyn may not be devastated but he should be doing better. His churlish and joyless decision not to congratulate Harry and Meghan today is probably on the wrong side of public opinion.

How will public opinion find out about it (particularly if he tweets something, say, tomorrow)? No one will remember. And yes, he should be doing better, but given what happened last time he's not going to panic no matter what polls say, even if what happened last time is no guarantee on next time.

Last time the Tories got 43% in GB, they are now still on 43%. Labour is down 2% from the 42% they got last time.

All Corbyn did last time was squeeze the leftwing LD, Green, SNP and UKIP voters behind him, he made virtually no net gains from the Tories in terms of voters on 2015. Next time he has little more leftwing voters to squeeze and will have to win over Tories to become PM, this poll confirms he is still a long way from doing that

As I said, he should be doing better (if, in the absence of anything else, we still take something away from polling). I just don't think being on the wrong end of public opinion through not sending a congrats message (yet) will figure into anything.

Most Labour voters won't care less that Corbyn did not send a message of congratulation, the Tory swing voters Corbyn needs to win over though, especially those who voted Labour from 1997-2005 but have voted Tory since, certainly will and will see it as peevish and disrespectful

Benpointer

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

Foxy said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/AEHALL1983/status/997921351502614528

Though she didnt break through in Britain, she broke through in Obama's USA. .

I would say the first mixed race member of the British royal family is breaking Britain by any definition, following on of course from the first BAME Home Secretary being a Tory

The first? You're showing your ignorance.

Charlotte of Mecklenburg-Strelitz was the first mixed race member of the British Royal Family.

I don't think being the daughter of the Duke of a small north German duchy quite counts as mixed race

Come to think of it, Her Majesty's ancestry probably reflects the EU28 pretty well.

kle4

Benpointer said:

Tories beginning to draw ahead in the polls as May pursues an ever softer Brexit. Fancy that!

It is a little baffling, frankly. Not because of the soft brexit thing - I'd have said at the time that most (though not all) remain supporters would presumably prefer a softer brexit, and some number of Leave supporters would too, so something that could be portrayed as soft would probably gain more support - but because she has looked so weak and shambolic, and the Tories so stupidly divided, that eking out a lead just seems so strange.

Sunil_Prasannan

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

Foxy said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/AEHALL1983/status/997921351502614528

Though she didnt break through in Britain, she broke through in Obama's USA. .

I would say the first mixed race member of the British royal family is breaking Britain by any definition, following on of course from the first BAME Home Secretary being a Tory

The first? You're showing your ignorance.

Charlotte of Mecklenburg-Strelitz was the first mixed race member of the British Royal Family.

I don't think being the daughter of the Duke of a small north German duchy quite counts as mixed race

She had black African ancestry in her genes.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/meghan-markle-prince-harry-engaged-royal-wedding-mixed-race-black-princess-british-monarchy-history-a8079251.html

Some historians suspect that she does.

oxfordsimon

Benpointer said:

oxfordsimon said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I remember the days when Mrs May had a 69% lead over Mr Corbyn.

Within weeks he had a 4% lead.

But that process has now happened and things have realigned. It is not as if Corbyn is coming as a surprise package any longer.

Haha - please keep on believing that pal!

It is not about believing it - it is about accepting the current realities. The next election will not be a rerun of the 2017 campaign. What happened then won't happen next time round.

Any assumption that Corbyn will see a similar shift in support is just denying political reality.

But please keep on deluding yourself.

Benpointer

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

Foxy said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/AEHALL1983/status/997921351502614528

Though she didnt break through in Britain, she broke through in Obama's USA. .

I would say the first mixed race member of the British royal family is breaking Britain by any definition, following on of course from the first BAME Home Secretary being a Tory

The first? You're showing your ignorance.

Charlotte of Mecklenburg-Strelitz was the first mixed race member of the British Royal Family.

I don't think being the daughter of the Duke of a small north German duchy quite counts as mixed race

She had black African ancestry in her genes.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/meghan-markle-prince-harry-engaged-royal-wedding-mixed-race-black-princess-british-monarchy-history-a8079251.html

We all do.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recent_African_origin_of_modern_humans

kle4

Benpointer said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

Foxy said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/AEHALL1983/status/997921351502614528

Though she didnt break through in Britain, she broke through in Obama's USA. .

I would say the first mixed race member of the British royal family is breaking Britain by any definition, following on of course from the first BAME Home Secretary being a Tory

The first? You're showing your ignorance.

Charlotte of Mecklenburg-Strelitz was the first mixed race member of the British Royal Family.

I don't think being the daughter of the Duke of a small north German duchy quite counts as mixed race

Come to think of it, Her Majesty's ancestry probably reflects the EU28 pretty well.

Weren't there stories of her being descended, through some convoluted fashion, to Mohammed as well?

And that's not to mention the links to non christian deities like Woden!

kle4

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

steve_garner said:

kle4 said:

A whole 10 points, huh? No doubt Corbyn is devastated.

Also, why would Cable's score have improved? Has he done anything recently that I was not aware of?

Corbyn may not be devastated but he should be doing better. His churlish and joyless decision not to congratulate Harry and Meghan today is probably on the wrong side of public opinion.

How will public opinion find out about it (particularly if he tweets something, say, tomorrow)? No one will remember. And yes, he should be doing better, but given what happened last time he's not going to panic no matter what polls say, even if what happened last time is no guarantee on next time.

Last time the Tories got 43% in GB, they are now still on 43%. Labour is down 2% from the 42% they got last time.

All Corbyn did last time was squeeze the leftwing LD, Green, SNP and UKIP voters behind him, he made virtually no net gains from the Tories in terms of voters on 2015. Next time he has little more leftwing voters to squeeze and will have to win over Tories to become PM, this poll confirms he is still a long way from doing that

As I said, he should be doing better (if, in the absence of anything else, we still take something away from polling). I just don't think being on the wrong end of public opinion through not sending a congrats message (yet) will figure into anything.

Most Labour voters won't care less that Corbyn did not send a message of congratulation, the Tory swing voters Corbyn needs to win over though, especially those who voted Labour from 1997-2005 but have voted Tory since, certainly will and will see it as peevish and disrespectful

If you say so - but how will they know? The only people who will find out about it today are anoraks, and if you tell people even a week from now they will probably react by asking if you don't have something more important to criticise him about!

Benpointer

kle4 said:

Benpointer said:

Tories beginning to draw ahead in the polls as May pursues an ever softer Brexit. Fancy that!

It is a little baffling, frankly. Not because of the soft brexit thing - I'd have said at the time that most (though not all) remain supporters would presumably prefer a softer brexit, and some number of Leave supporters would too, so something that could be portrayed as soft would probably gain more support - but because she has looked so weak and shambolic, and the Tories so stupidly divided, that eking out a lead just seems so strange.

Maybe there is an understanding of (and some sympathy for) the challenge she faces with her own party? Plenty of other potential factors too, of course, e.g: Labour anti-semitism and perceived weakeness over the Salisbury poisoning; Tories softening austerity and quitely adopting popular Labour policies.

kle4

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

When will someone help me, a member of the white lower middle classes, unlock my talent? Or more to the point, who will help me if I have no talent to unlock?

The Tory Party, we made IDS leader, a man no talents.

If the options are 'not getting talent unlocked' or 'become leader of the Tory party' I think I'll take the former - who wants the responsibility of managing that unruly mob!

Night all.

Benpointer

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

steve_garner said:

kle4 said:

A whole 10 points, huh? No doubt Corbyn is devastated.

Also, why would Cable's score have improved? Has he done anything recently that I was not aware of?

Corbyn may not be devastated but he should be doing better. His churlish and joyless decision not to congratulate Harry and Meghan today is probably on the wrong side of public opinion.

How will public opinion find out about it (particularly if he tweets something, say, tomorrow)? No one will remember. And yes, he should be doing better, but given what happened last time he's not going to panic no matter what polls say, even if what happened last time is no guarantee on next time.

Last time the Tories got 43% in GB, they are now still on 43%. Labour is down 2% from the 42% they got last time.

All Corbyn did last time was squeeze the leftwing LD, Green, SNP and UKIP voters behind him, he made virtually no net gains from the Tories in terms of voters on 2015. Next time he has little more leftwing voters to squeeze and will have to win over Tories to become PM, this poll confirms he is still a long way from doing that

As I said, he should be doing better (if, in the absence of anything else, we still take something away from polling). I just don't think being on the wrong end of public opinion through not sending a congrats message (yet) will figure into anything.

Most Labour voters won't care less that Corbyn did not send a message of congratulation, the Tory swing voters Corbyn needs to win over though, especially those who voted Labour from 1997-2005 but have voted Tory since, certainly will and will see it as peevish and disrespectful

If you say so - but how will they know? The only people who will find out about it today are anoraks, and if you tell people even a week from now they will probably react by asking if you don't have something more important to criticise him about!

How will they know? I suspect the DM, Sun, Express, Torygraph and other papers will mention it in passing

Benpointer

oxfordsimon said:

Benpointer said:

oxfordsimon said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I remember the days when Mrs May had a 69% lead over Mr Corbyn.

Within weeks he had a 4% lead.

But that process has now happened and things have realigned. It is not as if Corbyn is coming as a surprise package any longer.

Haha - please keep on believing that pal!

It is not about believing it - it is about accepting the current realities. The next election will not be a rerun of the 2017 campaign. What happened then won't happen next time round.

Any assumption that Corbyn will see a similar shift in support is just denying political reality.

But please keep on deluding yourself.

Truth is, we neither of us know. Time will tell (assuming Jezza is still LOTO at the next GE).

kle4

Benpointer said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

steve_garner said:

kle4 said:

A whole 10 points, huh? No doubt Corbyn is devastated.

Also, why would Cable's score have improved? Has he done anything recently that I was not aware of?

Corbyn may not be devastated but he should be doing better. His churlish and joyless decision not to congratulate Harry and Meghan today is probably on the wrong side of public opinion.

How will public opinion find out about it (particularly if he tweets something, say, tomorrow)? No one will remember. And yes, he should be doing better, but given what happened last time he's not going to panic no matter what polls say, even if what happened last time is no guarantee on next time.

Last time the Tories got 43% in GB, they are now still on 43%. Labour is down 2% from the 42% they got last time.

All Corbyn did last time was squeeze the leftwing LD, Green, SNP and UKIP voters behind him, he made virtually no net gains from the Tories in terms of voters on 2015. Next time he has little more leftwing voters to squeeze and will have to win over Tories to become PM, this poll confirms he is still a long way from doing that

As I said, he should be doing better (if, in the absence of anything else, we still take something away from polling). I just don't think being on the wrong end of public opinion through not sending a congrats message (yet) will figure into anything.

Most Labour voters won't care less that Corbyn did not send a message of congratulation, the Tory swing voters Corbyn needs to win over though, especially those who voted Labour from 1997-2005 but have voted Tory since, certainly will and will see it as peevish and disrespectful

If you say so - but how will they know? The only people who will find out about it today are anoraks, and if you tell people even a week from now they will probably react by asking if you don't have something more important to criticise him about!

How will they know? I suspect the DM, Sun, Express, Torygraph and other papers will mention it in passing

It's pretty weaksauce, particularly if he tweets something out tomorrow or something. "Oh noes, evil Corbyn said congrats to Harry and Meghan a day late!". Maybe I don't know squat, but I think even the partisan press will struggle to have that story cut through.

ydoethur

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

When will someone help me, a member of the white lower middle classes, unlock my talent? Or more to the point, who will help me if I have no talent to unlock?

The Tory Party, we made IDS leader, a man no talents.

I suppose a technical case could be made that he was the first mixed-race leader of a political party (one of his great-grandparents was Japanese).

HYUFD

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

steve_garner said:

kle4 said:

A whole 10 points, huh? No doubt Corbyn is devastated.

Also, why would Cable's score have improved? Has he done anything recently that I was not aware of?

Corbyn may not be devastated but he should be doing better. His churlish and joyless decision not to congratulate Harry and Meghan today is probably on the wrong side of public opinion.

How will public opinion find out about it (particularly if he tweets something, say, tomorrow)? No one will remember. And yes, he should be doing better, but given what happened last time he's not going to panic no matter what polls say, even if what happened last time is no guarantee on next time.

Last time the Tories got 43% in GB, they are now still on 43%. Labour is down 2% from the 42% they got last time.

All Corbyn did last time was squeeze the leftwing LD, Green, SNP and UKIP voters behind him, he made virtually no net gains from the Tories in terms of voters on 2015. Next time he has little more leftwing voters to squeeze and will have to win over Tories to become PM, this poll confirms he is still a long way from doing that

As I said, he should be doing better (if, in the absence of anything else, we still take something away from polling). I just don't think being on the wrong end of public opinion through not sending a congrats message (yet) will figure into anything.

Most Labour voters won't care less that Corbyn did not send a message of congratulation, the Tory swing voters Corbyn needs to win over though, especially those who voted Labour from 1997-2005 but have voted Tory since, certainly will and will see it as peevish and disrespectful

If you say so - but how will they know? The only people who will find out about it today are anoraks, and if you tell people even a week from now they will probably react by asking if you don't have something more important to criticise him about!

As mentioned the tabloid press and the Mail will certainly make sure their readers know about it as rightwingers on twitter are doing now, it reinforces the image of Corbyn that for swing voters they will be putting a red republican in No 10 if they vote Labour and that just adds to the hesitation they would have before putting their cross next to the Labour candidate in the privacy of the voting booth

Benpointer

kle4 said:

Benpointer said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

steve_garner said:

kle4 said:

A whole 10 points, huh? No doubt Corbyn is devastated.

Also, why would Cable's score have improved? Has he done anything recently that I was not aware of?

Corbyn may not be devastated but he should be doing better. His churlish and joyless decision not to congratulate Harry and Meghan today is probably on the wrong side of public opinion.

How will public opinion find out about it (particularly if he tweets something, say, tomorrow)? No one will remember. And yes, he should be doing better, but given what happened last time he's not going to panic no matter what polls say, even if what happened last time is no guarantee on next time.

Last time the Tories got 43% in GB, they are now still on 43%. Labour is down 2% from the 42% they got last time.

All Corbyn did last time was squeeze the leftwing LD, Green, SNP and UKIP voters behind him, he made virtually no net gains from the Tories in terms of voters on 2015. Next time he has little more leftwing voters to squeeze and will have to win over Tories to become PM, this poll confirms he is still a long way from doing that

As I said, he should be doing better (if, in the absence of anything else, we still take something away from polling). I just don't think being on the wrong end of public opinion through not sending a congrats message (yet) will figure into anything.

Most Labour voters won't care less that Corbyn did not send a message of congratulation, the Tory swing voters Corbyn needs to win over though, especially those who voted Labour from 1997-2005 but have voted Tory since, certainly will and will see it as peevish and disrespectful

If you say so - but how will they know? The only people who will find out about it today are anoraks, and if you tell people even a week from now they will probably react by asking if you don't have something more important to criticise him about!

How will they know? I suspect the DM, Sun, Express, Torygraph and other papers will mention it in passing

It's pretty weaksauce, particularly if he tweets something out tomorrow or something. "Oh noes, evil Corbyn said congrats to Harry and Meghan a day late!". Maybe I don't know squat, but I think even the partisan press will struggle to have that story cut through.

I agree, it will be long-forgotten by next week. I was just responding to your 'how will will they know' question.

oxfordsimon

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

steve_garner said:

kle4 said:

A whole 10 points, huh? No doubt Corbyn is devastated.

Also, why would Cable's score have improved? Has he done anything recently that I was not aware of?

Corbyn may not be devastated but he should be doing better. His churlish and joyless decision not to congratulate Harry and Meghan today is probably on the wrong side of public opinion.

How will public opinion find out about it (particularly if he tweets something, say, tomorrow)? No one will remember. And yes, he should be doing better, but given what happened last time he's not going to panic no matter what polls say, even if what happened last time is no guarantee on next time.

Last time the Tories got 43% in GB, they are now still on 43%. Labour is down 2% from the 42% they got last time.

All Corbyn did last time was squeeze the leftwing LD, Green, SNP and UKIP voters behind him, he made virtually no net gains from the Tories in terms of voters on 2015. Next time he has little more leftwing voters to squeeze and will have to win over Tories to become PM, this poll confirms he is still a long way from doing that

As I said, he should be doing better (if, in the absence of anything else, we still take something away from polling). I just don't think being on the wrong end of public opinion through not sending a congrats message (yet) will figure into anything.

Most Labour voters won't care less that Corbyn did not send a message of congratulation, the Tory swing voters Corbyn needs to win over though, especially those who voted Labour from 1997-2005 but have voted Tory since, certainly will and will see it as peevish and disrespectful

If you say so - but how will they know? The only people who will find out about it today are anoraks, and if you tell people even a week from now they will probably react by asking if you don't have something more important to criticise him about!

As mentioned the tabloid press and the Mail will certainly make sure their readers know about it as rightwingers on twitter are doing now, it reinforces the image of Corbyn that for swing voters they will be putting a red republican in No 10 if they vote Labour and that just adds to the hesitation they would have before putting their cross next to the Labour candidate in the privacy of the voting booth

It won't directly change any votes. But it will raise doubts that may cost votes.

HYUFD

oxfordsimon said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

steve_garner said:

kle4 said:

A whole 10 points, huh? No doubt Corbyn is devastated.

Also, why would Cable's score have improved? Has he done anything recently that I was not aware of?

Corbyn may not be devastated but he should be doing better. His churlish and joyless decision not to congratulate Harry and Meghan today is probably on the wrong side of public opinion.

How will public opinion find out about it (particularly if he tweets something, say, tomorrow)? No one will remember. And yes, he should be doing better, but given what happened last time he's not going to panic no matter what polls say, even if what happened last time is no guarantee on next time.

Last time the Tories got 43% in GB, they are now still on 43%. Labour is down 2% from the 42% they got last time.

All Corbyn did last time was squeeze the leftwing LD, Green, SNP and UKIP voters behind him, he made virtually no net gains from the Tories in terms of voters on 2015. Next time he has little more leftwing voters to squeeze and will have to win over Tories to become PM, this poll confirms he is still a long way from doing that

As I said, he should be doing better (if, in the absence of anything else, we still take something away from polling). I just don't think being on the wrong end of public opinion through not sending a congrats message (yet) will figure into anything.

Most Labour voters won't care less that Corbyn did not send a message of congratulation, the Tory swing voters Corbyn needs to win over though, especially those who voted Labour from 1997-2005 but have voted Tory since, certainly will and will see it as peevish and disrespectful

If you say so - but how will they know? The only people who will find out about it today are anoraks, and if you tell people even a week from now they will probably react by asking if you don't have something more important to criticise him about!

As mentioned the tabloid press and the Mail will certainly make sure their readers know about it as rightwingers on twitter are doing now, it reinforces the image of Corbyn that for swing voters they will be putting a red republican in No 10 if they vote Labour and that just adds to the hesitation they would have before putting their cross next to the Labour candidate in the privacy of the voting booth

It won't directly change any votes. But it will raise doubts that may cost votes.

Yes and Corbyn needs to change votes to win not raise more doubts in voters minds

justin124

HYUFD said:

Freggles said:

Con gain Bootle

Not quite, though on this poll the Tories would gain Kensington, Dudley North, Newcastle Under Lyme, Crewe and Nantwich, Canterbury, Barrow and Furness, Keighley, Ashfield, Stroud, Bishop Auckland and Peterborough from Labour.
http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative

Though six of those MPs are likely to enjoy a first term incumbency bonus next time.

HYUFD

https://twitter.com/UKIP/status/997980420355559424

Looks like as well as losing voters, UKIP is also losing spellers!

justin124

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

steve_garner said:

kle4 said:

A whole 10 points, huh? No doubt Corbyn is devastated.

Also, why would Cable's score have improved? Has he done anything recently that I was not aware of?

Corbyn may not be devastated but he should be doing better. His churlish and joyless decision not to congratulate Harry and Meghan today is probably on the wrong side of public opinion.

How will public opinion find out about it (particularly if he tweets something, say, tomorrow)? No one will remember. And yes, he should be doing better, but given what happened last time he's not going to panic no matter what polls say, even if what happened last time is no guarantee on next time.

Last time the Tories got 43% in GB, they are now still on 43%. Labour is down 2% from the 42% they got last time.

All Corbyn did last time was squeeze the leftwing LD, Green, SNP and UKIP voters behind him, he made virtually no net gains from the Tories in terms of voters on 2015. Next time he has little more leftwing voters to squeeze and will have to win over Tories to become PM, this poll confirms he is still a long way from doing that

As I said, he should be doing better (if, in the absence of anything else, we still take something away from polling). I just don't think being on the wrong end of public opinion through not sending a congrats message (yet) will figure into anything.

Most Labour voters won't care less that Corbyn did not send a message of congratulation, the Tory swing voters Corbyn needs to win over though, especially those who voted Labour from 1997-2005 but have voted Tory since, certainly will and will see it as peevish and disrespectful

Seriously - do you really think that many people will give a damn about something so obviously trivial? Why should he send them a tweet any more than to the many others who were married yesterday?

justin124

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

steve_garner said:

kle4 said:

A whole 10 points, huh? No doubt Corbyn is devastated.

Also, why would Cable's score have improved? Has he done anything recently that I was not aware of?

Corbyn may not be devastated but he should be doing better. His churlish and joyless decision not to congratulate Harry and Meghan today is probably on the wrong side of public opinion.

How will public opinion find out about it (particularly if he tweets something, say, tomorrow)? No one will remember. And yes, he should be doing better, but given what happened last time he's not going to panic no matter what polls say, even if what happened last time is no guarantee on next time.

Last time the Tories got 43% in GB, they are now still on 43%. Labour is down 2% from the 42% they got last time.

All Corbyn did last time was squeeze the leftwing LD, Green, SNP and UKIP voters behind him, he made virtually no net gains from the Tories in terms of voters on 2015. Next time he has little more leftwing voters to squeeze and will have to win over Tories to become PM, this poll confirms he is still a long way from doing that

Labour did not poll 42% in 2017!

HYUFD

justin124 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

steve_garner said:

kle4 said:

A whole 10 points, huh? No doubt Corbyn is devastated.

Also, why would Cable's score have improved? Has he done anything recently that I was not aware of?

Corbyn may not be devastated but he should be doing better. His churlish and joyless decision not to congratulate Harry and Meghan today is probably on the wrong side of public opinion.

How will public opinion find out about it (particularly if he tweets something, say, tomorrow)? No one will remember. And yes, he should be doing better, but given what happened last time he's not going to panic no matter what polls say, even if what happened last time is no guarantee on next time.

Last time the Tories got 43% in GB, they are now still on 43%. Labour is down 2% from the 42% they got last time.

All Corbyn did last time was squeeze the leftwing LD, Green, SNP and UKIP voters behind him, he made virtually no net gains from the Tories in terms of voters on 2015. Next time he has little more leftwing voters to squeeze and will have to win over Tories to become PM, this poll confirms he is still a long way from doing that

Labour did not poll 42% in 2017!

41% then, still down 2%

HYUFD

justin124 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

steve_garner said:

kle4 said:

A whole 10 points, huh? No doubt Corbyn is devastated.

Also, why would Cable's score have improved? Has he done anything recently that I was not aware of?

Corbyn may not be devastated but he should be doing better. His churlish and joyless decision not to congratulate Harry and Meghan today is probably on the wrong side of public opinion.

How will public opinion find out about it (particularly if he tweets something, say, tomorrow)? No one will remember. And yes, he should be doing better, but given what happened last time he's not going to panic no matter what polls say, even if what happened last time is no guarantee on next time.

Last time the Tories got 43% in GB, they are now still on 43%. Labour is down 2% from the 42% they got last time.

All Corbyn did last time was squeeze the leftwing LD, Green, SNP and UKIP voters behind him, he made virtually no net gains from the Tories in terms of voters on 2015. Next time he has little more leftwing voters to squeeze and will have to win over Tories to become PM, this poll confirms he is still a long way from doing that

As I said, he should be doing better (if, in the absence of anything else, we still take something away from polling). I just don't think being on the wrong end of public opinion through not sending a congrats message (yet) will figure into anything.

Most Labour voters won't care less that Corbyn did not send a message of congratulation, the Tory swing voters Corbyn needs to win over though, especially those who voted Labour from 1997-2005 but have voted Tory since, certainly will and will see it as peevish and disrespectful

Seriously - do you really think that many people will give a damn about something so obviously trivial? Why should he send them a tweet any more than to the many others who were married yesterday?

As he is a member of the royal family, 5th in line to be our future Head of State and Corbyn is Leader of the Opposition and the potential next PM. As I said republican leftwingers won't care but the monarchist majority in this country will

justin124

HYUFD said:

justin124 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

steve_garner said:

kle4 said:

A whole 10 points, huh? No doubt Corbyn is devastated.

Also, why would Cable's score have improved? Has he done anything recently that I was not aware of?

Corbyn may not be devastated but he should be doing better. His churlish and joyless decision not to congratulate Harry and Meghan today is probably on the wrong side of public opinion.

How will public opinion find out about it (particularly if he tweets something, say, tomorrow)? No one will remember. And yes, he should be doing better, but given what happened last time he's not going to panic no matter what polls say, even if what happened last time is no guarantee on next time.

Last time the Tories got 43% in GB, they are now still on 43%. Labour is down 2% from the 42% they got last time.

All Corbyn did last time was squeeze the leftwing LD, Green, SNP and UKIP voters behind him, he made virtually no net gains from the Tories in terms of voters on 2015. Next time he has little more leftwing voters to squeeze and will have to win over Tories to become PM, this poll confirms he is still a long way from doing that

As I said, he should be doing better (if, in the absence of anything else, we still take something away from polling). I just don't think being on the wrong end of public opinion through not sending a congrats message (yet) will figure into anything.

Most Labour voters won't care less that Corbyn did not send a message of congratulation, the Tory swing voters Corbyn needs to win over though, especially those who voted Labour from 1997-2005 but have voted Tory since, certainly will and will see it as peevish and disrespectful

Seriously - do you really think that many people will give a damn about something so obviously trivial? Why should he send them a tweet any more than to the many others who were married yesterday?

As he is a member of the royal family, 5th in line to be our future Head of State and Corbyn is Leader of the Opposition and the potential next PM. As I said republican leftwingers won't care but the monarchist majority in this country will

99.99% will not give a damn! I don't think Harold Wilson sent a telegram to Princess Anne when she married Mark Phillips in November 1973. A much more significant % of the electorate appears to have serious doubts as to whether Harry is of royal blood at all - though on that matter I am not as persuaded as many clearly are!

Wulfrun_Phil

justin124 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

steve_garner said:

kle4 said:

A whole 10 points, huh? No doubt Corbyn is devastated.

Also, why would Cable's score have improved? Has he done anything recently that I was not aware of?

Corbyn may not be devastated but he should be doing better. His churlish and joyless decision not to congratulate Harry and Meghan today is probably on the wrong side of public opinion.

How will public opinion find out about it (particularly if he tweets something, say, tomorrow)? No one will remember. And yes, he should be doing better, but given what happened last time he's not going to panic no matter what polls say, even if what happened last time is no guarantee on next time.

Last time the Tories got 43% in GB, they are now still on 43%. Labour is down 2% from the 42% they got last time.

All Corbyn did last time was squeeze the leftwing LD, Green, SNP and UKIP voters behind him, he made virtually no net gains from the Tories in terms of voters on 2015. Next time he has little more leftwing voters to squeeze and will have to win over Tories to become PM, this poll confirms he is still a long way from doing that

As I said, he should be doing better (if, in the absence of anything else, we still take something away from polling). I just don't think being on the wrong end of public opinion through not sending a congrats message (yet) will figure into anything.

Most Labour voters won't care less that Corbyn did not send a message of congratulation, the Tory swing voters Corbyn needs to win over though, especially those who voted Labour from 1997-2005 but have voted Tory since, certainly will and will see it as peevish and disrespectful

Seriously - do you really think that many people will give a damn about something so obviously trivial? Why should he send them a tweet any more than to the many others who were married yesterday?

Because while about half of the UK electorate shares your indifference, a minority of the UK electorate care quite a lot about what happened yesterday. And quite a number of those will be seriously pissed off by what will be reported correctly as a Corbyn snub. He did find the time send a tweet of congratulations yesterday to someone in London, but it happened to be a Lewisham by-election candidate. When you are still 4% behind in the polls and seemingly going backwards some 8 years into a Conservative government, you really can't afford to piss anyone off unnecessarily.

justin124

Wulfrun_Phil said:

justin124 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

steve_garner said:

kle4 said:

A whole 10 points, huh? No doubt Corbyn is devastated.

Also, why would Cable's score have improved? Has he done anything recently that I was not aware of?

Corbyn may not be devastated but he should be doing better. His churlish and joyless decision not to congratulate Harry and Meghan today is probably on the wrong side of public opinion.

As I said, he should be doing better (if, in the absence of anything else, we still take something away from polling). I just don't think being on the wrong end of public opinion through not sending a congrats message (yet) will figure into anything.

Most Labour voters won't care less that Corbyn did not send a message of congratulation, the Tory swing voters Corbyn needs to win over though, especially those who voted Labour from 1997-2005 but have voted Tory since, certainly will and will see it as peevish and disrespectful

Seriously - do you really think that many people will give a damn about something so obviously trivial? Why should he send them a tweet any more than to the many others who were married yesterday?

Because while about half of the UK electorate shares your indifference, a minority of the UK electorate care quite a lot about what happened yesterday. And quite a number of those will be seriously pissed off by what will be reported correctly as a Corbyn snub. He did find the time send a tweet of congratulations yesterday to someone in London, but it happened to be a Lewisham by-election candidate. When you are still 4% behind in the polls and seemingly going backwards some 8 years into a Conservative government, you really can't afford to piss anyone off unnecessarily.

I would say that a good 95% share my indifference. Very few people tend to be really ardent Monarchists nowadays and we are talking here about the 'hangers on' - Harry is 6th in line to the throne on one view of his parentage. Party leaders have never been expected to send messages like that. Wilson didn't do it in 1973 - neither did Foot to Charles in 1981 - nor Kinnock to Andrew.The suggestion is a load of nonsense and will be forgotten a week hence.

Dura_Ace

steve_garner said:

kle4 said:

A whole 10 points, huh? No doubt Corbyn is devastated.

Also, why would Cable's score have improved? Has he done anything recently that I was not aware of?

Corbyn may not be devastated but he should be doing better. His churlish and joyless decision not to congratulate Harry and Meghan today is probably on the wrong side of public opinion.

I think better of him for it.

AndyJS

Dura_Ace said:

steve_garner said:

kle4 said:

A whole 10 points, huh? No doubt Corbyn is devastated.

Also, why would Cable's score have improved? Has he done anything recently that I was not aware of?

Corbyn may not be devastated but he should be doing better. His churlish and joyless decision not to congratulate Harry and Meghan today is probably on the wrong side of public opinion.

I think better of him for it.

So do I. It would have been gesture politics for him to have sent a message.

CarlottaVance

Up to a point, Lord Copper.

I know the Observer and OGH would like to present this as 'Vince Cable level pegging with Mrs May' - but Vince's levels of "Don't know" technically "neither approve nor disapprove" are twice the level of May & Corbyn's historically - this poll's data isn't up yet, but from April:

Approve/Disapprove/Neither

May: 35 / 43 / 22
Corbyn: 29 / 48 / 23
Cable: 16 / 34 / 50

Perhaps Vince's 'Neither Approve nor Disapprove' have shifted to 'approve' - better wait until we see the tables, but it feels a bit like there's some whistling in the dark going on here.

CarlottaVance

AndyJS said:

Dura_Ace said:

steve_garner said:

kle4 said:

A whole 10 points, huh? No doubt Corbyn is devastated.

Also, why would Cable's score have improved? Has he done anything recently that I was not aware of?

Corbyn may not be devastated but he should be doing better. His churlish and joyless decision not to congratulate Harry and Meghan today is probably on the wrong side of public opinion.

I think better of him for it.

So do I. It would have been gesture politics for him to have sent a message.

Cable was quite cheeky:

https://twitter.com/vincecable/status/997815099766247424

CarlottaVance

Was only mentioned in passing yesterday - but the Straits Times picked up on this:

Singapore orchid on Meghan Markle's wedding veil featuring national flowers of Commonwealth countries

Malaysia's Bunga Raya Hibiscus, Bangladesh's White Water Lily and Pakistan's Jasmine also made it onto the long veil.

https://www.straitstimes.com/world/singapore-orchid-on-meghan-markles-wedding-veil-featuring-national-flowers-of-commonwealth

CarlottaVance

Its not only Britain where intellectuals (yes, Mr Grayling, I'm looking at you) have lost the plot over Brexit:

Europe, says Bernard-Henri Lévy, will collapse if Brexit goes ahead. “It will collapse because when the body is deprived of its brain and its heart, its spirit dies. Britain is not just an additional piece of the European Union, it is the brain.” I never expected to hear a Frenchman say that, certainly not a great French intellectual. But there’s more: “Brexit will be a much bigger catastrophe than most people expect or think, a catastrophe for Britain and a catastrophe for Europe. Europe is unthinkable without Great Britain. Everyone who reflects deeply about Europe knows that the UK is its beating heart.”

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/bernard-henri-levys-brexit-lament-nkrnvwvss?shareToken=94474e76c504b0e9bafab4f68cfe580f

surby

CarlottaVance said:

AndyJS said:

Dura_Ace said:

steve_garner said:

kle4 said:

A whole 10 points, huh? No doubt Corbyn is devastated.

Also, why would Cable's score have improved? Has he done anything recently that I was not aware of?

Corbyn may not be devastated but he should be doing better. His churlish and joyless decision not to congratulate Harry and Meghan today is probably on the wrong side of public opinion.

I think better of him for it.

So do I. It would have been gesture politics for him to have sent a message.

Cable was quite cheeky:

https://twitter.com/vincecable/status/997815099766247424

He forgot to mention the Scottish FA Cup Final. Oooh ! The marginals.

surby

justin124 said:

Wulfrun_Phil said:

justin124 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

steve_garner said:

kle4 said:

A whole 10 points, huh? No doubt Corbyn is devastated.

Also, why would Cable's score have improved? Has he done anything recently that I was not aware of?

Corbyn may not be devastated but he should be doing better. His churlish and joyless decision not to congratulate Harry and Meghan today is probably on the wrong side of public opinion.

As I said, he should be doing better (if, in the absence of anything else, we still take something away from polling). I just don't think being on the wrong end of public opinion through not sending a congrats message (yet) will figure into anything.

Most Labour voters won't care less that Corbyn did not send a message of congratulation, the Tory swing voters Corbyn needs to win over though, especially those who voted Labour from 1997-2005 but have voted Tory since, certainly will and will see it as peevish and disrespectful

Seriously - do you really think that many people will give a damn about something so obviously trivial? Why should he send them a tweet any more than to the many others who were married yesterday?

Because while about half of the UK electorate shares your indifference, a minority of the UK electorate care quite a lot about what happened yesterday. And quite a number of those will be seriously pissed off by what will be reported correctly as a Corbyn snub. He did find the time send a tweet of congratulations yesterday to someone in London, but it happened to be a Lewisham by-election candidate. When you are still 4% behind in the polls and seemingly going backwards some 8 years into a Conservative government, you really can't afford to piss anyone off unnecessarily.

I would say that a good 95% share my indifference. Very few people tend to be really ardent Monarchists nowadays and we are talking here about the 'hangers on' - Harry is 6th in line to the throne on one view of his parentage. Party leaders have never been expected to send messages like that. Wilson didn't do it in 1973 - neither did Foot to Charles in 1981 - nor Kinnock to Andrew.The suggestion is a load of nonsense and will be forgotten a week hence.

If Corbyn had sent a message, that would have the talking point for a month. The word "hypocrite" would have been used.

All ardent monarchist [ to those to whom this matters ] do not vote Labour.

surby

HYUFD said:

justin124 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

steve_garner said:

kle4 said:

A whole 10 points, huh? No doubt Corbyn is devastated.

Also, why would Cable's score have improved? Has he done anything recently that I was not aware of?

Corbyn may not be devastated but he should be doing better. His churlish and joyless decision not to congratulate Harry and Meghan today is probably on the wrong side of public opinion.

How will public opinion find out about it (particularly if he tweets something, say, tomorrow)? No one will remember. And yes, he should be doing better, but given what happened last time he's not going to panic no matter what polls say, even if what happened last time is no guarantee on next time.

Last time the Tories got 43% in GB, they are now still on 43%. Labour is down 2% from the 42% they got last time.

All Corbyn did last time was squeeze the leftwing LD, Green, SNP and UKIP voters behind him, he made virtually no net gains from the Tories in terms of voters on 2015. Next time he has little more leftwing voters to squeeze and will have to win over Tories to become PM, this poll confirms he is still a long way from doing that

As I said, he should be doing better (if, in the absence of anything else, we still take something away from polling). I just don't think being on the wrong end of public opinion through not sending a congrats message (yet) will figure into anything.

Most Labour voters won't care less that Corbyn did not send a message of congratulation, the Tory swing voters Corbyn needs to win over though, especially those who voted Labour from 1997-2005 but have voted Tory since, certainly will and will see it as peevish and disrespectful

Seriously - do you really think that many people will give a damn about something so obviously trivial? Why should he send them a tweet any more than to the many others who were married yesterday?

As he is a member of the royal family, 5th in line to be our future Head of State and Corbyn is Leader of the Opposition and the potential next PM. As I said republican leftwingers won't care but the monarchist majority in this country will

Your invitation to the Tower is in the post. 6th in line.

surby

justin124 said:

HYUFD said:

justin124 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

steve_garner said:

kle4 said:

A whole 10 points, huh? No doubt Corbyn is devastated.

Also, why would Cable's score have improved? Has he done anything recently that I was not aware of?

Corbyn may not be devastated but he should be doing better. His churlish and joyless decision not to congratulate Harry and Meghan today is probably on the wrong side of public opinion.

How will public opinion find out about it (particularly if he tweets something, say, tomorrow)? No one will remember. And yes, he should be doing better, but given what happened last time he's not going to panic no matter what polls say, even if what happened last time is no guarantee on next time.

Last time the Tories got 43% in GB, they are now still on 43%. Labour is down 2% from the 42% they got last time.

All Corbyn did last time was squeeze the leftwing LD, Green, SNP and UKIP voters behind him, he made virtually no net gains from the Tories in terms of voters on 2015. Next time he has little more leftwing voters to squeeze and will have to win over Tories to become PM, this poll confirms he is still a long way from doing that

As I said, he should be doing better (if, in the absence of anything else, we still take something away from polling). I just don't think being on the wrong end of public opinion through not sending a congrats message (yet) will figure into anything.

Most Labour voters won't care less that Corbyn did not send a message of congratulation, the Tory swing voters Corbyn needs to win over though, especially those who voted Labour from 1997-2005 but have voted Tory since, certainly will and will see it as peevish and disrespectful

Seriously - do you really think that many people will give a damn about something so obviously trivial? Why should he send them a tweet any more than to the many others who were married yesterday?

As he is a member of the royal family, 5th in line to be our future Head of State and Corbyn is Leader of the Opposition and the potential next PM. As I said republican leftwingers won't care but the monarchist majority in this country will

99.99% will not give a damn! I don't think Harold Wilson sent a telegram to Princess Anne when she married Mark Phillips in November 1973. A much more significant % of the electorate appears to have serious doubts as to whether Harry is of royal blood at all - though on that matter I am not as persuaded as many clearly are!

In which case, my admiration, if any, has actually gone up !

surby

HYUFD said:

justin124 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

steve_garner said:

kle4 said:

A whole 10 points, huh? No doubt Corbyn is devastated.

Also, why would Cable's score have improved? Has he done anything recently that I was not aware of?

Corbyn may not be devastated but he should be doing better. His churlish and joyless decision not to congratulate Harry and Meghan today is probably on the wrong side of public opinion.

How will public opinion find out about it (particularly if he tweets something, say, tomorrow)? No one will remember. And yes, he should be doing better, but given what happened last time he's not going to panic no matter what polls say, even if what happened last time is no guarantee on next time.

Last time the Tories got 43% in GB, they are now still on 43%. Labour is down 2% from the 42% they got last time.

All Corbyn did last time was squeeze the leftwing LD, Green, SNP and UKIP voters behind him, he made virtually no net gains from the Tories in terms of voters on 2015. Next time he has little more leftwing voters to squeeze and will have to win over Tories to become PM, this poll confirms he is still a long way from doing that

Labour did not poll 42% in 2017!

41% then, still down 2%

Actually 40%.

MTimT

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/AEHALL1983/status/997921351502614528

I would have thought that BAME people themselves were best entrusted with unlocking their own talent. What a paternalistic, nanny-state (ok, mixing imagery a bit there) approach. Is that really how Labour thinks racial discrimination is to be overcome - by old bearded white guys claiming the sole power to ethnic success?

CarlottaVance

What could possibly go wrong?

https://twitter.com/Independent/status/998032666908876800

Roger

CarlottaVance said:

AndyJS said:

Dura_Ace said:

steve_garner said:

kle4 said:

A whole 10 points, huh? No doubt Corbyn is devastated.

Also, why would Cable's score have improved? Has he done anything recently that I was not aware of?

Corbyn may not be devastated but he should be doing better. His churlish and joyless decision not to congratulate Harry and Meghan today is probably on the wrong side of public opinion.

I think better of him for it.

So do I. It would have been gesture politics for him to have sent a message.

Cable was quite cheeky:

https://twitter.com/vincecable/status/997815099766247424

Undortunately the BBC only chose to televise two of them.

surby

"An Opinium poll for the Observer also suggests a shift towards support for staying in the single market. In January 2017, 41% wanted to end free movement – and were prepared to leave the single market to do so. Only 32% wanted to stay in the single market, even if it meant keeping free movement rules. This month, however, 40% wanted to prioritise staying in the single market, while only 34% wanted to prioritise ending free movement. The poll also gives the Tories their biggest lead since the general election. They are up three points on 43%, four ahead of Labour."

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/may/19/top-tory-plans-rebellion-to-stay-in-eu-customs-union

CarlottaVance

A reminder of the last speaker defenestration:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-1184561/It-like-Mafia-funeral-pudgy-omerta-boys-sidling-squeeze-wrists-whisper-brief-words-respect.html

What ever Bercow's faults, he was an improvement on Martin - but still Boothroyde best in a long while.....saw her on a number 82 bus once.....