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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The London election polling test finds that LAB was overstated

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    AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,869

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Just renaming something unpopular and pretending it's entirely different worked splendidly with the Constitution/Lisbon Treaty, didn't it?

    Good afternoon, Mr Dancer.

    It is really strange how difficult it seems to be to extract ourselves from an engagement that's only been in place some 40-odd years.

    It's even more strange that the difficulties and the hardships in which it is going to involve us don't seem to have diminished the appetite among the SNP people for leaving the UK.

    However, I suppose they are learning lessons on negotiation with the UK government from all this.

    Good afternoon, everybody.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,984
    Good afternoon, Miss JGP.

    Indeed, but the EU was always designed to have its hooks in, and for changes to be of a ratchet nature (Yes is banked forever, No is rejected outright or asked again until the 'right' answer is given).
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,680

    Elliot said:

    Foxy said:

    Anazina said:

    Anazina said:

    Notable how some of this site’s leading Brexiteer and Neobrexiteers don’t live in the UK, or anywhere near it.

    RCS1000, Carlotta, Sandpit and Archer to name a few.

    Telling.

    That is why they are called "Leavers". They have left .... :D
    :D Ah! Thanks for clarifying

    I was obviously being unkind in my assumption that they liked pontificating from the sidelines safe in the knowledge that their deranged project won't impact them.
    Or bringing perspective of those who have lived in foreign parts and remain astonished at the insularity of those who have only ever lived in Britain?
    Plenty of Remain supporters have also lived abroad, myself for 6 years in two stints and two countries. Indeed, I believe not having a passport correlated with Leave voting.
    You can't really have it both ways. "Brexiteers are ex-pats" and "Brexiteers are xenophobic little Englanders" can't both be true.
    This may be a sensationally new idea, but might some Brexiteers be expats who are happy to play out an experiment that they won't suffer any fallout from and some other Brexiteers be xenophobic little Englanders?

    This hypothesis seems to fit many of the available facts. Perhaps we could look into it further.
    Or perhaps, some who live abroad think Democracy is more important than Economics?
    When they're wholly unaffected by the economics, that's not going to weigh on their minds, is it? So they can indulge their mad hatred of the EU onto which they project all the wickednesses of the world, and they do.
    Just because I think poorly of the EU doesn't mean I think it is wicked, and certainly not responsible for all the wickedness in the world. I don't think their intent is nefarious. It is just deeply flawed and thinks democracy is of little value beyond appearances.
    Yet its defenders characterise the EU's critics 'mad hatred' as such, 'the lady doth protest too much, methinks'.....
    Only yesterday a well-known commentator who poses as a Leave moderate described Britain as being on a "transition to freedom". The routine way in which Leave advocates describe the EU as some form of malign authoritarian power is both absurd and disgusting.
    Citation required...
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    ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516

    Mr. P, 'mansplain' remains a ridiculous and obnoxious comment, regardless of whether Davidson has a point about Sheerman. The idea making a term pejorative by adding a gender-based prefix is a good thing is bloody stupid.

    Completely agree. "To patronise" is the correct term and it can be done by both men and women. However some use "mansplain" as a shorthand way to dismiss a man's opinion without engaging with the point, even when it's not patronising.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,951

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Elliot said:

    As a republican, I get how the wedding of the future King is important. I even get how the wedding of the future King's brother deserves coverage as a national celebration. What I don't get is how who is walking the bride down the aisle is front page news.

    YOU ARE A REPUBLICAN!???

    Now I would have thought the union set of republicans and Brexiters would be super small.
    You're pointing at my slice of the Venn diagram.
    Yep, as @Gardenwalker pointed out - disgruntled old lefty.

    Fair enough.
    I'm not disgruntled. I am happy and carefree. Looking towards the sunlit uplands of an independent Socialist republic.

    I'm not that old either. Although closer to 60 than 40 would be one way to look at it.
    I do find it strange that Remainers think that anyone who advocates Brexit must be sad, old, lonely or angry. They seem to miss the fact that change is good. Many of us welcome and embrace change, not because we were necessarily desperately unhappy with the status quo, but because we can see the benefits of doing something in a different way. Without change their can be no improvement, no advance. It strikes me that too often it is the Remoaners who seem to want to cling to Nanny's skirts for fear of something different.
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,856

    Mr. Walker, if you think normalising pejorative terms based on gender is smart, then I think you're a tinker.

    This nonsense about 'toxic masculinity' makes it more difficult to discuss problems that particularly affect men (suicide being high on the list) because it describes the very concept of manhood as something bad, standing in contrast to the loveliness of womanhood (the man who recently ended his own life after being unable to go on with the injuries his ex-girlfriend inflicted on him by throwing acid in his face might have disagreed with said stereotype).

    I don't think it's moral, intelligent, or wise to criticise people based on their skin colour or gender, or to try and normalise racially charged and sexist language in everyday political discourse. But that's just me.

    Who are you, Richard Littlejohn?
    Mansplaining describes a patronising, know-it-all tone used by *some* men with women.

    It’s a helpful word because it describes a phenomenon widely recognised but hitherto unlabelled.

    It’s got bigger all to do with acid attacks.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,822
    JackW said:

    Pulpstar said:

    My only wish for tommorow is that Henry doesn't go too mad with the razor

    Why would he?

    Perhaps the likely next Duke of Sussex likes the look .... but more importantly what Scottish peerage will be conferred upon Prince Henry .... Earl of Auchentennach ? .... :smile:
    Assume you and Lady Jack will be raising a wee dram (or nine) to the happy couple tomorrow? :D
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    ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516

    TOPPING said:

    Elliot said:

    As a republican, I get how the wedding of the future King is important. I even get how the wedding of the future King's brother deserves coverage as a national celebration. What I don't get is how who is walking the bride down the aisle is front page news.

    YOU ARE A REPUBLICAN!???

    Now I would have thought the union set of republicans and Brexiters would be super small.
    Corbyn?

    Hah! Elliot is Corbyn! I knew it!!
    Damn. You got me. And I would have gotten away with it too, if it hadn't been for you meddling kids.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,680

    felix said:



    Everyhone living in EU countries with Uk based pensions or incomes, including me, suffered immediate 20+ % income drops following the Brexit result and most of that loss continues today. No-one in that category who voted Leave would claim to be unaffected economically.

    Just as well Mr Meeks doesn't work on pensions, isn't it?
    felix voted Remain, though he affects to forget that nowadays. More of an illustration of my point than a refutation.
    Doesn't it rather illustrate his greater respect for democracy than those who would wish to thwart Brexit?

    A remain voter, who has been adversely affected by the result, but respects it.

    Whats not to respect?
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,856
    Elliot said:

    Mr. P, 'mansplain' remains a ridiculous and obnoxious comment, regardless of whether Davidson has a point about Sheerman. The idea making a term pejorative by adding a gender-based prefix is a good thing is bloody stupid.

    Completely agree. "To patronise" is the correct term and it can be done by both men and women. However some use "mansplain" as a shorthand way to dismiss a man's opinion without engaging with the point, even when it's not patronising.
    Expect there is a peculiar, gender-based form of patronising. It’s a thing. Deal with it.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,190

    Mr. Walker, if you think normalising pejorative terms based on gender is smart, then I think you're a tinker.

    This nonsense about 'toxic masculinity' makes it more difficult to discuss problems that particularly affect men (suicide being high on the list) because it describes the very concept of manhood as something bad, standing in contrast to the loveliness of womanhood (the man who recently ended his own life after being unable to go on with the injuries his ex-girlfriend inflicted on him by throwing acid in his face might have disagreed with said stereotype).

    I don't think it's moral, intelligent, or wise to criticise people based on their skin colour or gender, or to try and normalise racially charged and sexist language in everyday political discourse. But that's just me.

    Who are you, Richard Littlejohn?
    Mansplaining describes a patronising, know-it-all tone used by *some* men with women.

    It’s a helpful word because it describes a phenomenon widely recognised but hitherto unlabelled.

    It’s got bigger all to do with acid attacks.
    Bercow is a condescending little ****. I don't think the gender of those on the receiving end of his rants comes into it.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,312

    NEW THREAD

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    ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516

    Mr. Walker, if you think normalising pejorative terms based on gender is smart, then I think you're a tinker.

    This nonsense about 'toxic masculinity' makes it more difficult to discuss problems that particularly affect men (suicide being high on the list) because it describes the very concept of manhood as something bad, standing in contrast to the loveliness of womanhood (the man who recently ended his own life after being unable to go on with the injuries his ex-girlfriend inflicted on him by throwing acid in his face might have disagreed with said stereotype).

    I don't think it's moral, intelligent, or wise to criticise people based on their skin colour or gender, or to try and normalise racially charged and sexist language in everyday political discourse. But that's just me.

    Who are you, Richard Littlejohn?
    Mansplaining describes a patronising, know-it-all tone used by *some* men with women.

    It’s a helpful word because it describes a phenomenon widely recognised but hitherto unlabelled.

    It’s got bigger all to do with acid attacks.
    Yet clearly Ruth Davidson's use of it earlier didn't describe that phenomenon at all. But, of course, a man can't defend himself against why his point wasn't 'mansplaining' without being accused of mansplaining once again. It is a rhetorical device to reduce free exchange of ideas rather than increase it.
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    ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516

    Elliot said:

    Mr. P, 'mansplain' remains a ridiculous and obnoxious comment, regardless of whether Davidson has a point about Sheerman. The idea making a term pejorative by adding a gender-based prefix is a good thing is bloody stupid.

    Completely agree. "To patronise" is the correct term and it can be done by both men and women. However some use "mansplain" as a shorthand way to dismiss a man's opinion without engaging with the point, even when it's not patronising.
    Expect there is a peculiar, gender-based form of patronising. It’s a thing. Deal with it.
    There's no need to beardsplain things to me.
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,856
    Elliot said:

    Elliot said:

    Mr. P, 'mansplain' remains a ridiculous and obnoxious comment, regardless of whether Davidson has a point about Sheerman. The idea making a term pejorative by adding a gender-based prefix is a good thing is bloody stupid.

    Completely agree. "To patronise" is the correct term and it can be done by both men and women. However some use "mansplain" as a shorthand way to dismiss a man's opinion without engaging with the point, even when it's not patronising.
    Expect there is a peculiar, gender-based form of patronising. It’s a thing. Deal with it.
    There's no need to beardsplain things to me.
    Haha. Gammon.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,951

    felix said:



    Everyhone living in EU countries with Uk based pensions or incomes, including me, suffered immediate 20+ % income drops following the Brexit result and most of that loss continues today. No-one in that category who voted Leave would claim to be unaffected economically.

    Just as well Mr Meeks doesn't work on pensions, isn't it?
    felix voted Remain, though he affects to forget that nowadays. More of an illustration of my point than a refutation.
    Doesn't it rather illustrate his greater respect for democracy than those who would wish to thwart Brexit?

    A remain voter, who has been adversely affected by the result, but respects it.

    Whats not to respect?
    There are a fair few on here. Richard Nabavi is another who springs to mind.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,984
    Mr. Walker, you're aware that some women speak like to men? And we already have words like patronising, condescending, or phrases like talking down to?

    Still, leap on that fashionable bandwagon, if that's what you want.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    edited May 2018

    Elliot said:

    Foxy said:

    Anazina said:



    Or bringing perspective of those who have lived in foreign parts and remain astonished at the insularity of those who have only ever lived in Britain?

    Plenty of Remain supporters have also lived abroad, myself for 6 years in two stints and two countries. Indeed, I believe not having a passport correlated with Leave voting.
    You can't really have it both ways. "Brexiteers are ex-pats" and "Brexiteers are xenophobic little Englanders" can't both be true.
    This may be a sensationally new idea, but might some Brexiteers be expats who are happy to play out an experiment that they won't suffer any fallout from and some other Brexiteers be xenophobic little Englanders?

    This hypothesis seems to fit many of the available facts. Perhaps we could look into it further.
    Or perhaps, some who live abroad think Democracy is more important than Economics?
    When they're wholly unaffected by the economics, that's not going to weigh on their minds, is it? So they can indulge their mad hatred of the EU onto which they project all the wickednesses of the world, and they do.
    Just because I think poorly of the EU doesn't mean I think it is wicked, and certainly not responsible for all the wickedness in the world. I don't think their intent is nefarious. It is just deeply flawed and thinks democracy is of little value beyond appearances.
    Yet its defenders characterise the EU's critics 'mad hatred' as such, 'the lady doth protest too much, methinks'.....
    Only yesterday a well-known commentator who poses as a Leave moderate described Britain as being on a "transition to freedom". The routine way in which Leave advocates describe the EU as some form of malign authoritarian power is both absurd and disgusting.
    Citation required...
    Knock yourself out:

    https://twitter.com/montie/status/997172071821127680
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,856

    Mr. Walker, you're aware that some women speak like to men? And we already have words like patronising, condescending, or phrases like talking down to?

    Still, leap on that fashionable bandwagon, if that's what you want.

    Hehe. I just don’t think people should be so pompous about these things.

    You should come up with your own word for the phenomenon you describe. Matronising, surely?
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,124

    felix said:



    Everyhone living in EU countries with Uk based pensions or incomes, including me, suffered immediate 20+ % income drops following the Brexit result and most of that loss continues today. No-one in that category who voted Leave would claim to be unaffected economically.

    Just as well Mr Meeks doesn't work on pensions, isn't it?
    felix voted Remain, though he affects to forget that nowadays. More of an illustration of my point than a refutation.
    I did vote Remain and have lost out. I know many leave voters here who voted in full knowledge they'd lose out. Doesn't illustrate your point at all. Accepting a democratic vote is not 'affecting' to forget anything. I'd vote the same way tomorrow. Just because you threw out your toys ..
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    RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    Cyclefree said:

    Completely off topic.

    Nonetheless.

    Can I just say what a nice gesture it is for Prince Charles to walk his future daughter-in-law down the aisle. Both welcoming and thoughtful. I hope the day goes well for Harry and Meghan. No need to go over the top just because they're Royals but it is nice to see people happy, to see how Harry has grown up into a fine young man and to wish them both well for the future.

    My own son - who has had a very troubled time making the transition into adulthood (and is by no means completely out of the woods yet) - has started on his first proper job and is, touch wood etc, so far finding it interesting and enjoyable. It is so lovely seeing him excited and feeling hopeful.

    One never stops worrying as a parent, of course, but to breathe a little sigh of relief is so precious. I imagine there must be some of that for his family in seeing Harry embark on such a momentous stage of life.

    I hesitate ever to give parenting advice but to those with very young children all I would say is that the early years, hard as it may seem if you're in the middle of them, are easy. It is the teenage years and beyond which test you - and your children - in ways that you can never, in your wildest nightmares, imagine. I am grateful that all three are still speaking to me and happy to spend time in my company.

    What a lovely post @Cyclefree - your son obviously chose well when he went to the mum shop :smile:

    Events like this just show how small people like the MP for Kensington are.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,011

    HYUFD said:

    HHemmelig said:

    HYUFD said:


    Except he hasn't, regulatory alignment over Ireland does not require full single market membership nor does it prevent FOM being replaced by work permits as both May and Corbyn have made clear and even if there ended up being FOM from the Republic to NI that would not apply from continental Europe to the UK

    If freedom of movement does indeed end (and I'm far from convinced it will, in the forseeable future), it will most likely only do so in a technical sense, with so-called "work permits" being no more difficult to obtain for EU citizens than an ESTA to visit the US. That does hopefully mean being able to keep out known criminals and undesireables, but we probably won't have any more control on EU immigration beyond that, certainly no cap on numbers. Time will tell how the Leave electorate respond, I suspect many are already pretty bored with the issue.
    Maybe but it would still technically end FoM
    And finally, the HYUFD cat is out of the bag. You go on about how Brexit means the end of freedom of movement, but in reality you just want to SAY it has been ended. You know May will sell you out so now it is just about 'technically' ending it.

    So, when there are 'work permits' which as HHemmelig says will be available without application or limit, it won't cause any reduction in immigration. And, of course, as this will be part of the new treaty with the EU the UK won't be able to change - so there will be no 'taking back control' or 'taking control of our borders' - just yet another in a long line of Tory sellouts on Europe.

    Good to see you have your rationalisation ready to go...
    Work permits is still ending FOM and will lead to a reduction in immigration focused only on those whose skills we need.

    You do not have to kick all the foreigners out to reduce immigration
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    JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    edited May 2018
    x
This discussion has been closed.