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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The London election polling test finds that LAB was overstated
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The London election polling test finds that LAB was overstated by 4 points in the final polls
It is not often we get a real election against which we can compare final polls and this month’s London elections provided one such opportunity.
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I'll get my coat.
I asked him about four times what his definition is of the end of FOM but he won't answer, because whatever fudge May does is going to be OK.
No wonder we are screwed.
Richard Tyndall was wrong. As I said the article never says anywhere we will be required to stay in the single market or keep free movement.
In fact the regulatory alignment mentioned in the article we will be required to have to avoid a hard border in Ireland is exactly what was agreed in December in a deal I supported and you opposed. The fact you still oppose it is nothing new at all, you are and have always been a hard Brexiteer who wants to leave the single market and the customs union, has no desire for a transition period and has little concern about the effects of ultra hard Brexit on either the economy or peace in Ireland and Northern Ireland's place in the UK.
Unlike me both you and Richard Tyndall, himself an ex UKIP voter, have always been far closer to UKIP than you have ever been to the Tories
Bear in mind that rcs1000 is not emoti9nally invested either way in Brexit...
Yet you keep repeating that this is all fine because we will be rid of FOM. But when asked to define exactly what you think this means, you won't say.
You know, deep down, that May will sell you out on this in the end. You are just trying to work out how to rationalise it.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/may/17/north-korea-trump-latest-warning-kim-jong-un-gaddafi
Interesting that this (Loud Labour?) isn't matched by a return of the shy Conservative phenomenon.
No doubt they will research why they overstated Labour. Was it simply younger voters who didn't quite get around to it, is this a "Oh Jeremy Corbyn" factor, where his supporters are not so motivated when their hero is not on the ballot or is it more systemic? It may be that the Labour vote would have been higher had this been a Westminster election.
We probably need another reasonable sized election to test them and ensure that they didn't just get lucky but this seems to me a return to form.
With YouGov I always wonder how they overcome the bias in the internet-using population, within which pensioners must be under-represented. Yes, you can upweight those pensioners who do the online surveys, but are those users likely to be representative of pensioners who aren't online?
This requires him to move to a top team pretty quickly, and be top/equal driver there. He could easily take over from Raikkonen at Ferrari. But how long will Vettel be there? Could be a while. Ferrari could drop back from the sharp end. Not a fan of tying money up for so long at relatively short odds.
To test this one would need to look at where exactly the underperformance was. If I get time I might do that.
There may also be a slight timing effect, in that the political mood was slipping away from Labour during the campaign; there is always some delay between polling and voting.
And, in a local election specifically, I suspect intention to vote responses are less reliable than in a GE poll, and Labour probably had disproportionately more people saying they would vote than who actually bothered. In particular postal voters always think they will vote, whereas in a local election about 25% of them don't get round to it.
It might have been a factor for a very small number of voters. But I doubt it’s what explains the difference.
Of course whether May is in power..
Surely one possibility is simply that Labour supporters didn't use all their votes, while the more motivated and more fearful Tories and Lib Dems made a point of voting as many times as they could.
On Brexit, I expect most voters will go along with whatever compromised outcome the government cobbles together, through exhaustion, boredom with the topic and the lack of viable alternatives. The crisis will hit the first time the EU tells the UK to do something the government's political base is strongly opposed to.
The fact that for you the only permissible Brexit is an ultra hard UKIP Brexit with no regulatory alignment at all, no transition period at all, no single market or customs union membership at all and little concern for either the impact on the economy or the Irish peace process of that does not change that
The Labour vote collapsed from 2014 and the LDs came within 30 votes of taking the seat though the Tories did hold on in the end
Germans debating who owns gold fillings after a body is burned. The crematorium or the family ?
http://www.faz.net/aktuell/finanzen/meine-finanzen/nachrichten/streit-um-das-zahngold-verstorbener-menschen-15595312.html
Nothing to do with the way Italians were treated in the debt crisis then ........
https://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/article176475863/Russlandfreundliches-Italien-Putins-italienischer-Triumph.html
' A smaller proportion of UK workers are low paid than at any time since the early 1980s, due to above-inflation increases in the government’s national living wage.
A report by the Resolution Foundation thinktank said the share of employees who were officially classified as low paid – earning less than around £8.50 an hour – had fallen to 18%, the lowest since 1982.
Further planned increases in the national living wage would reduce the percentage of low paid – those earning less than two-thirds of the median hourly wage – to 15% by 2020, the thinktank said.
The number of low-paid workers is affected by the growing size of the workforce, but the Resolution Foundation said that in the year to April 2017 the total fell below five million for the first time since the early 2000s. '
https://www.theguardian.com/money/2018/may/18/number-of-low-paid-uk-workers-falls-to-lowest-level-in-decades
https://mobile.twitter.com/OxfordUnion/status/997232135194009600
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/levy-on-over-40s-would-fund-their-old-age-care-proposes-damian-green-hb7kt2tbb
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/05/16/pensioners-properties-without-mortgages-should-draw-money-fund/
But I would say on first glance it smacks of over complication. It would require every single homeowner over 65 to enter into some form of equity release with all the attendant paperwork and complications of stuff like, presumably, assessing value of a property. Unless I am missing something.
Why not just reduce some of the £1m free from IHT (if a property passing to kids etc etc)?
I used to listen to Radio 5 up to last year when the BBC replaced the old sports and news channel with a version of Loose Women. But emoting rather than fact-reporting is what BBC journalism has become.
I am reading Sean McMeekin's new book, 'The Russian Revolution' (thoroughly recommended with new material from archives on Lenin and his German connections).
I had not realised that Lloyd George pulled Brit support from the Whites in the post-revolution civil war against the Reds at a crucial moment when it appeared they were possibly losing and doomed. It seems he just announced it, surprising Cabinet colleagues.
He then removed a sea blockade.
RCS1000, Carlotta, Sandpit and Archer to name a few.
Telling.
The idea that the ECB should simply cancel E250bn of bonds is an interesting one... Can just see the Germans loving that.
The funny thing that many also harangue Mr Meeks for having the effrontery to keep a holiday home in Hungary.
£30k is a lot of money compared to the average house value in Mansfield or Copeland or Middlesbrough South.
Whereas few people in such places will be needing the full inheritance tax threshold.
In fact I think I misread the proposal the other day, took it as 30k/yr.
Of course taking out an interest only mortgage on your property to say 10% of the value looks an easy get out from this for the elderly.
So arguably, the answer is yes.
But the Germans bear far more guilt, if that is the right word.
£50k not a lot to put students in debt for.
Many will disagree.
"What do they know of England who only England know?"
The man who makes the cakes?
At some point the Brexit music will stop and whoever is in post will accept the status quo at the time the music does stop.
Three weeks on and the London results are starting to make a little more sense. Labour failed to break the 50% number forecast in some polls - complacency among its supporters or a response to the anti-Semitism meme ?
The "spin" was about the party failing in Barnet, Wandsworth and Westminster and that's not insignificant in wider electoral terms but Labour still gained 60 Councillors and one Council (Tower Hamlets) and is now entrenched in its 21 councils with either huge majorities or 100% control. The Mayoral contests were all comfortably won (Newham by 73 to 12) as well. Labour are represented on every Council bar the ones held by the LDs as the anti-Conservative vote.
For the Conservatives, the spin of "success" hides a more complex and mixed story. Yes, the holding of Barnet in particular (and Wandsworth and Westminster) as well was noteworthy but the party lost Kingston and Richmond to the LDs and failed to take back Sutton, Harrow or Havering. 100 Councillors were lost and its worth noting places like Redbridge, Croydon, Enfield and Merton, where the Conservatives were competitive not so long ago, they are a long way behind.
For the Liberal Democrats, too, it was a mixed night. Holding Sutton and gaining Kingston and Richmond were the big stories (as well as a nice few gains in Merton) but the bulk of the LD Councillors in London are in the four Boroughs mentioned and elsewhere there were tiny islands of progress surrounded by vast seas of moribund wasteland. 23 of London's 32 Boroughs have no LD Councillors (the Conservatives are only absent on 6 by comparison) and that's a concern.
For the Greens, it was disappointing apart from Lambeth where four gains makes them the official Opposition (as they are on Islington) while UKIP's existence in London (which, in comparison to other areas was weak with only 12 Councillors) was erased with the Party as a whole getting fewer votes than ASPIRE, one of the factions in Tower Hamlets.
For the Independents, a poor night. Yes, 24 survived in Havering and two ex-Conservatives held on in Biggin Hill and three new Independents took seats from the LDs in Beddington North but that's about your lot.
Perhaps the message from the 2018 elections wasn't about how much changed but how little.
https://twitter.com/afneil/status/997399997061705728
https://twitter.com/afneil/status/997398484918702080
https://twitter.com/FerdiGiugliano/status/997394545259229184
That said, there are glimmers of an LD revival in a few places around the Home Counties which don't appear to have been particularly heavily targetted.
But the recipients of inheritances should pay income tax on their inheritances (as unearned income) which seems fair. Perhaps with an allowance of £x to take small inheritances out of the net, and a rate of 45% on trusts. This should raise more money than the current scheme and be seen as fairer and may encourage a bigger spread of inheritances.
I'd also remove the anomaly of over-65s not paying NI. That would raise a few billion, is simple, and seems fair.
None of the Brexiteers actually want to grasp the thistle of leaving.
They want someone else to make it work, or someone else to take the blame for it not working
A classic of the genre...
https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/997088812206567424