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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB supporters are deluding themselves if they think an anti-CON rainbow coalition would automatically back Corbyn for PM
Ever since general election seat projections like the one from Sky above have appeared LAB supporters and Corbyn enthusiasts have been saying that last Thursday the party won LE2018 and if it had been had a general election then Corbyn would be the one being called to the Palace.
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https://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/992408416298651648
Classic 'bubble' thinking - there are many non-progressive (current and former) Labour voters out there.....
https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/993218506983464960
https://twitter.com/ceris_training/status/993266327954522117
That could be a lively public discussion.
Slept badly due to the heat and, ironically, ended up getting out of bed an hour earlier due to sleepily misreading my watch
I think there may be a better chance than the thread header suggests. The SNP's mission in life is to divide the UK, so Sturgeon might well be tempted. The Lib Dems could be wary of coalition, but, certainly with Cable as leader, might also want to 're-equalise' the distance between Lab and Con by entering coalition with the reds.
Still think it's odds against, but it's far from impossible. We've seen just how Labour backbenchers will put up with nonsense rather than resign the whip or form a break-away party.
On topic, dn’t those figures mean a conntinuation of the current Con plus DUP C&S arrangments?
Some polling required....
I wonder if any other poster has a better claim to be our very own Father of the House?
While there would be differences between the nationalist parties (PC/SNP) and Labour on the national identity issue, they do at least have similar left-wing views and attitudes to foreign policy.
I do think the green(s?) would support Corbyn over the Tories certainly.
Lib Dems under Vince more likely to back the Tories rather than Corbyn I reckon. I'd add also that the more left-wing Lib dems, perhaps previously motivated by the Iraq war/civil liberties, may have already switched to Labour.
SNP - I think the advantage here is the Labour is more ambivalent on constitutional matters. I imagine some kind of deal could be done. I find it hard to believe someone like Mhairi Black would ever back the Tories.
Betting PostTennis: reduced my stakes after some unlucky/daft bets, but backed a couple in the Madrid Open.
Pouille to beat Paire in straight sets, at 2.37 on Ladbrokes. He has a 3-0 winning record, with not a set lost.
Similarly, backed Sharapova to win 2-0 against Begu at 1.9.
Whether this still applies now that the Tories are betting the whole economy on their own political obsessions is another matter, of course.
Brexit was supposed to be the French language’s chance at a comeback.
For a brief moment after the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union, Francophones in Paris and Brussels allowed themselves to believe that French would regain its historical standing as Europe’s language of diplomacy.
Instead, perhaps paradoxically, the opposite is taking place. Once Britain leaves the EU, only two, relatively small, EU member countries — Ireland and Malta — will still list English as an official language (alongside Irish and Maltese). It would be everyone else’s second language and thus neutral territory. Officials from non-French speaking countries like Poland, Italy or the Czech Republic are particularly eager to see the global lingua franca become the primary means of communication in the EU.
https://www.politico.eu/article/french-english-language-brexit-european-parliament-ecj-commission-eu-next-waterloo
Anything less and they could be ambushed and defeated anytime.
If LD MPs < Corbyn MP supporters then it's probably irrelevant.
That does seem a more likely route for a Labour split though than what is normally discussed.
https://twitter.com/HenryNewman/status/993201238979366912
https://twitter.com/HenryNewman/status/993201241726636032
The second one doesn't pull any punches, does it?
Alternatively, a minority party could provide the PM. Who is SNP leader at Westminster now?
However, I can only see such an arrangement lasting two years before fresh elections. Possibly enough time for Labour however, if Corbyn was finally ditched in favour of somebody who can reach out to the centre.
Next problem - could they find such a person in the current Labour Party?
That said, there are arrangements that don't require coalition, most ld voters seem to prefer labour to the tories (I'll take his word about them not being fans of Corbyn, though we know some lds are huge fans of his) and being seen to somehow prop up the tories, Even through inaction, woukd probably hurt them. So while it woukd be messy, and not as certain as some in labour act like it would be, I get the feeling they'd play ball.
Yes theyve been burned by coalition, but I'd have thought the party was still about hoping for some influence. It's not like they expect to win outright.
this will happen anyway if anyone in a future legal action against a secretary general’s decision decides to contest his competence because he has been illegally appointed. There will be a lot of opportunities, and this could thus produce a huge destabilization of the Commission, for a long period.
Were in a situation where the leaders cannot seem to manage without working majorities, but cannot seem likely to get such a majority either. I think Corbyn has a chance of that, if Brexit goes even more poorly, but more likely no one will find it easy.
49. The United Kingdom remains committed to protecting North-South cooperation and to its guarantee of avoiding a hard border. Any future arrangements must be compatible with these overarching requirements. The United Kingdom's intention is to achieve these objectives through the overall EU-UK relationship. Should this not be possible, the United Kingdom will propose specific solutions to address the unique circumstances of the island of Ireland. In the absence of agreed solutions, the United Kingdom will maintain full alignment with those rules of the Internal Market and the Customs Union which, now or in the future, support North-South cooperation, the all- island economy and the protection of the 1998 Agreement.
50. In the absence of agreed solutions, as set out in the previous paragraph, the United Kingdom will ensure that no new regulatory barriers develop between Northern Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom, unless, consistent with the 1998 Agreement, the Northern Ireland Executive and Assembly agree that distinct arrangements are appropriate for Northern Ireland. In all circumstances, the United Kingdom will continue to ensure the same unfettered access for Northern Ireland's businesses to the whole of the United Kingdom internal market.
The EU is now trying to put a radically different interpretation on this, presumably due to pressure from Dublin backed by Selmayr, who doesn't have much understanding of the issues, but in principle the EU have themselves ruled out a border in the Irish Sea.
Incidentally with regard to your reply yesterday if you can't see that the bank bailout, forced on Ireland by the ECB when even the IMF tried to stop it, has left major ongoing problems masked by a temporary credit binge, I can't force you to. But believe me, Ireland is no more out of the woods than we are and has even fewer options in the event of an emergency (like, oooh, a drunken fool in the European Commission inadvertently imposing a hard border on he island because he was wasted).
Most likely, they'd be willing to be courted (informally) on a vote by vote basis, but at a price.
Of course some seemed to want to be labour lite. Prior to the demise if ukip the best outcome seemed to be if ukip and the c lds broke through with plenty of MPs, then labour and the tories each had ready made junior partners.
Since it couldn't get past reality either, given even if article 50 could be reversed there is no time for an election and then a referendum, I'll agree with you we're on course for a second election if those numbers come up.
Agree that Momentum add manpower but might reduce strategic sense.
Assuming Norman Lamb retires at the next election, will the LDs be able to hold North Norfolk?
This is him asking a question about Galileo in Parliament last week:
https://twitter.com/CommonsSTC/status/992001167583531009?s=19
https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/uk/brexit-border-could-move-to-irish-sea-as-eu-backstop-plan-that-angered-may-remains-in-place-36720522.html
Our Civil Servants do have contingency plans for such an Irish Sea border too:
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/may/04/irish-border-backup-plan-suggests-checks-ports-airports-brexit
Seems the only viable option to me, apart from full UK CU.
Going back to 1997, it's notable how much London has diverged from the rest of England. Then, Labour had a 13% lead outside London.
What a win,Harry Brook- star in the making ;-)
Gove:
https://twitter.com/michaelgove/status/993254022068035584
https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/993212477025456128
It is crazy that 2 years on and 10 months to go that the Brexiteers have no plan other than winging it.
From a purely technical perspective French or Greek would be far superior as the working language of the EU.
In a negotiation, we do not get to pick the opposing team.
No one suggested ending the Common Travel Area which has been with us for nearly a century - so the Northern Ireland/Ireland border was never proposed as a point of control.
Similarly, unlike the EU, there has been no government proposal to require visas or pre-clearance of EU citizens to the UK post-Brexit.
The issue is not of 'entry' but of 'settlement and right to work and access to services'.
But I'm sure you know that and hope muddling them will lead to us staying in a CU.
Tant pis.
And for a language of precision, care and thought, it would have to be German.
https://twitter.com/OFOCBrexit/status/993181347580694528
A useful model for Scotland too...