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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NEW PB/Polling Matters podcast: Rudd resigns, immigration, Trump’s visit, plus a look ahead to the local elections
On this week’s podcast, Leo Barasi returns and discusses the latest glut of voting intention polls with Keiran Pedley. Leo and Keiran look at what is behind the differences in voting intention figures between pollsters, how Corbyn’s personal poll ratings compare historically and the importance of the economy is in current polling.
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With regards to Brexit, it seems like the government are still trying to work out what they want. Of course, they should have worked that out before triggering article 50, and there should also have been some sort of further public consultation on it, given the vast constitutional implications. So, we are still dealing with the fall out of poor political judgement, in both the way the referendum was framed, and in the aftermath of it.
It is hard to see what deal is going to emerge. It seems more likely that are going to be faced with a choice between crashing out, and some sort of punitive 'interim' deal, rolling over and over indefinetly. So, BINO, but not even quite that. More like 'Brexit deferred'.
I'd go for the crashing out, to be honest. Deferring Brexit endlessly and finding new weasel words to explain it is not honoring the referendum result. We just ultimately have to take the hit and face the consequences of it.
And thanks to your po-faced reply we can also enjoy a smirk at Leavers displaying a sense of humour bypass!
The trick I think is meaningful Brexit, but not yet. Divergence but not yet. Customs Union for now but we will definitely be out later.
It is also showing that Windrush has had little negatives for the conservatives, probably as labour (and the SNP) tie themselves in knots over illegal immigration
I still expect the clear winners outside London will be the Lib Dems but expect there may be something in the results for each party.
The funny story of today was when Dawn Butler was challenged on Sky that labour were trailing on who best to do Brexit and run the economy. She replied (yes honestly)
'That is not my experience in my constituency' (73% labour voting Brent)
And of course it has already had a political impact. Rudd has resigned, leaving May exposed. It's now pretty well inconceivable she will still be in post on 1st January 2020.
No.
BTW that video looks faked.
Blue deliberately goes down, and yellow watches the seat to time her 'hit'.
Last Saturday I got shouted at in the street by a particularly vile Labour supporter for putting a Lib Dem leaflet through her door.
That aside, I'm finding it quite enjoyable - but it's the first set of elections that I've ever helped out with so I'm probably biased and certainly without any reasonable comparisons.
It isn't in the fundamental interest of either party in the negotiation not to have a deal; this is what people need to remember. The EU need to fill a hole in their budget, and the UK needs an arrangement which passes the political smell test.
I've had one leaflet, from Labour. My ward is so safe only the Tories and the Greens are even bothering to put up paper candidates. The 'can't be arsed' attitude is pretty annoying.
The Scots had a very sensible idea in reforming local elections. Here's hoping the English follow suit soon.
Chin up. And good on you for getting involved, even tho. we're on different teams.
(for what it's worth I think @6.6 for 2018 is a bit long, but I'm certainly not backing it at that price.)
We're fighting hard in two wards in my city - both against Labour. I've been involved in delivering in both. 4 leaflets in our top target and 2 in our second target. On paper they are both pretty safe Labour wards (though we have held one of them before) but both have retiring councillors this time so we're pushing hard and Labour are not very happy to see us to say the least - as they have such a sense of entitlement here. The other parties are not doing anything in these particular wards but the Conservatives will certainly be targeting elsewhere in the city as it's a tough cycle for Labour. They are defending 10 out of the 11 seats up this time (I think... ).
The PLP is useless
https://twitter.com/ryanafournier/status/991758008068734976?s=21
For the record the movement in shares over the last month (12 polls using exponential moving averages) is:
Con 41.3% to 41.4%
Lab 40.9% to 39.9%
LD 7.6% to 7.9%
UKIP 2.9% to 3.3%
Grn 2.3% to 2.6%
Apparently couple of wards on a knife edge
Next: How North Korea's hackers helped Trump win the presidency.
Interestingly enough, we're not pushing hard on the bar chart thing here really. I think only one of our leaflets had one.
The broader point though is that, by the time of the next election, the tories are likely to have been in government for over a decade. It is hard to point to anything concrete or serious over the past 8 years that successive conservative governments have actually achieved, other than simply keeping the ship afloat. For many people though, that isn't enough. The cuts have not reduced the deficit, which is just growing. The same fundamental economic problems of the 2000's essentially prevail. There is no economic diversification strategy. Essentially, there is no economic plan. Housing is still a massive problem, getting worse. Wages have been stagnating. Large areas of public service (ie the criminal justice system) are essentially run on the goodwill of individuals, who keep battling on in the face of mindless government absurdity.
The tories have been there for nearly a decade, and they have run out of other people to blame. They can't blame the previous labour government any more. They can't blame public sector workers and 'waste', because they've been cutting that every year. They can't even lie any more (ie lying that we have the worlds biggest budget for legal aid), because the other side will just lie as well (ie lying that we can raise public spending). And so the problems mount.
And, thats before you look at brexit. They have made their voters happy by having a referendum and honouring the result, but it seems quite unlikely that even that will be delivered in a meaningful way that pleases their voters. So any Tory increase in these opinion polls is, in my view, unlikely to be sustained. Ultimately, the pendulum is going to swing towards Labour.
I've also had complaints about putting leaflets through letter boxes marked "No Junk Mail". I've explained that it is important political information about the upcoming election but if they're not interested in who runs their local council, I'll have the literature back thank you very much. (They were obviously Tories so no loss there).
I suspect Labour will win all 60 seats on Newham Council and the mayoralty but I'm expecting one or two closer results in one or two Wards and if one non-Labour candidate got in I wouldn't be massively surprised.
I do think the Conservatives will lose seats on Redbridge - as for Havering, no idea at all.
Good luck to all PBers engaged in electioneering tomorrow, regardless of party or persuasion. I hope that your fingers remain unbitten by dogs, your knocking-up sheets remain safe from rain, and your pledges remember both to vote and to vote for your party.
Night all!
I know, I know, it's a wacky theory. But who knows, perhaps there are still a few dozen Labour MPs of integrity?
Although I doubt anyone actually uses them any more...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shuttleworth_(canvassing)