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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Early voting from the Arizona 8th special election suggests su
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Early voting from the Arizona 8th special election suggests suggest this won’t be another Alabama or Pennsylvania
After the sensational Democratic party wins in the recent Alabama and Pennsylvania special elections there’s a lot of focus on Arizona 8th Congressional District where voting takes place next Tuesday. The earlier two elections saw victories for the Democratic Party which were particularly striking because because they were in places Trump had done so well at WH2016.
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Fianl para typo "Alabama ans Pennsylvania" ....
Labour are exhausted. They have had the longest run of any party with national executive power since 1830 and they are clearly floundering. They have no ideas, no talent and when Alun Davies and Leighton Andrews have been invited back despite their pasts it's clear they have no integrity and appointments go by favour only. When the end comes for them I think it will be sudden and dramatic - possibly crashing from first to third (or worse) in one election a la the Canadian Progressive Conerservatives, and for much the same reasons. They will end up in a situation where even allowing for deeply ingrained tribal instinct nobody is willing to vote for them.
The catch is that unlike in Scotland no one party has established itself as the clear alternative, and the two parties in joint second place hold each other in deep suspicion. They will not be willing to work together - indeed they're wasting a lot of energy fighting each other rather than focussing fire on Labour. Therefore absent a revival of the Liberal Democrats, it's not easy to see where an alternative government would come from.
Complicating matters are the regional political complexities. Plaid have a stranglehold on the Welsh-speaking west, Labour lock out the Valleys and the north-East, the Conservatives are strongest around the edges and the Liberal Democrats have lingering redoubts in the middle. It is hard to see how that will change even in a collapse. For example, it's easy enough to see Plaid replacing Labour in the western Valleys around Neath, Merthyr and Llanelli should the Labour hegemony crack, somewhat difficult to see them taking Wrexham or Delyn. Equally it is hard to see the Conservatives make headway in the rural west where their views would be most sympathetically received ordinarily because of the language issue, and damn near impossible to see them taking over the valleys outside maybe a couple of wealthier seats in Cardiff and Swansea.
So I have to say I can't see any light at the end of the tunnel for Wales, I'm afraid. Ironically, it might be better in the medium term to have an absolute dud as First Minister in the hope it hastens the collapse.
The Emerson poll showed the parties splitting along partisan lines, with the Dems (a) taking more independents and (b) more enthusiastic. It's the same shape as previous victories, though it may not be enough.
I say maybe 2/1 - 3/1 is a far price for the Dems, happy to have got 7/1 earlier today.
I will praise him for one thing: he is, by all accounts, a very good constituency MP.
And I quite like David Lammy who can be really very thoughtful and impressive and, also, on occasion, amazingly stupid. But he is not predictable and on those subjects he cares deeply about he can really be very good.
Similarly, Diane Abbott, for all her faults, gave an astoundingly good speech against the very illiberal 42-day detention without trial proposals that ignorant weasel, Blair, tried to bring in.
Anyway on ID cards I am with Mr Meeks. NFW will I have one.
I've just spent a couple of hours in the garden, and feel thoroughly enlivened after a good forking. As our premier horticulturist, do you agree that it is good for both body and soul to go forking a couple of times a week?
https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/987398504933920771
Between 2004 and 2016, there was a big swing to the Democrats. But, the Republican vote was flattered in 2004, by favourite son George W Bush being the candidate. In 2016, the Democratic vote was flattered by Clinton campaigning strongly in the State, in the mistaken belief she could win it, while Trump did relatively little campaigning there, focusing on swing States.
The State was still 11% more Republican than the US as a whole, in 2016, compared to 17% in 2000, and 13% in 1996. I don't see it becoming truly competitive till 2028, at the earliest.
But a couple of hours only - pah! You are a mere dilettante. Yesterday, for instance, I was at it for four hours and today a similar amount. A new wisteria has been planted, roses pruned and some gaps in the bedding filled. Seven bags of rubbish were taken to the recycling centre and my poor rough chapped hands will need a lot of TLC this evening. And there is still watering to do. Plus the terrace needs work. Tomorrow.
For now, I am sitting in my comfy seat on the veranda, hidden away from the house, from where I can peak at my eldest two, cooking a lovely roast chicken dinner.
Or so Mrs J says ...
Ah, well.
Meanwhile Yorkshire have just seen Notts five wickets down in the second innings.
All is well.
Although it could be worse. We could be Durham or Northants.
And Middlesex is still very funny to watch.
After giving it their best efforts, the chefs ended up with "If you're trying this at home, just one recommendation - leave out the slugs".
Good evening, everybody.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/apr/22/labour-to-seek-local-support-for-250bn-regional-renaissance
"Anyway on ID cards I am with Mr Meeks. NFW will I have one."
I could be tempted. I'm also available for being a victim of data harvesting and phone hacking. Prices on application.
Who was it who received £600k having his phone hacked? Beats working for a living.
Whst is galling is that Yorkshire, having failed abysmally to produce a pitch fit for any sort of cricket last weekend, look like being able to top the league.
If it was anyone but Yorkshire, there'd have been a penalty deduction.
The gameplan is: pointless Brexit, followed by giving the people "the final say", thus reversing Brexit.
Coal-mining, and nationalism.
I will certainly struggle to continue to support May if she caves in on the Customs Union. It goes against the basis of the whole Government's negotiating position for the last 16 months. She must ensure the UK is no longer bound by the Common Commercial Policy or the Common External Tariff.
I can see her parliamentary position unravelling very quickly if she doesn't because Parliament (be it the HoC and/or the HoL) voting against it would amount to a VoNC, in my opinion.
It's legitimate for people to feel that "they may not be very good but better that than an expert performance by people we can't stand".
The only thing I would say about Wales is that Labour managed to get nearly half the seats for 34.7% of the constituency vote and 31.5% of the regional vote. In Scotland, the SNP got 63 out of 129 seats with 46.5% of the constituency vote and 41.7% of the regional vote. I guess that partly reflects the fact that people aren't voting tactically against Labour in Wales. Perhaps that will change.
Who’s upset ?
And I’m not sure you can really blame Yorkshire for one of the wettest springs in memory - or indeed how close to the Headingly surface is the water table.
I just think Celtic nationalism and (historic centres of) coal-mining are well correlated with non-Conservative voting.
(ii) Labour only lost one seat, so they ended up with 29 out of 60 seats -- just under half the seats. The method chosen for Welsh Assembly elections was decided by Blair's government. They pulled the same trick that they did in Scotland, and they set up a system that perennially favoured Labour.
(iii) Whenever a party is endlessly in power (as Labour is in Wales), it is bad for the party and bad for the country. The party never renews itself in opposition, and the stench of corruption simply grows. E.g., whatever happened with Carl Sergeant, whether he was villain or hero, bully or bullied against, Labour can & have suppressed the report. That is not in the interest of open & good government.
I know someone compared Gavin Williamson to an incontinent puppy, really loyal and wants to be loved, but boy does he shit all over the bed and elsewhere.
If Theresa May keeps us in the customs union I'll do regularly threads saying she's the greatest Tory of her generation, even better than Dave and George.
The logical end game will be not to offer a referendum on a customs union, but to say in a few years time, well since we're in the customs union we might as well rejoin the single market.
Rejoining the single market and its restraint on state intervention will look brilliant after 5 years of PM Corbyn.
*In this thread. http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2018/02/25/why-i-wont-be-surprised-to-see-a-general-election-or-corbyn-become-prime-minister-this-year/
http://www.espncricinfo.com/cricketer/content/story/247620.html
The beating Essex gave Yorkshire at chelmsford last season nearly cost Andrew Gale his job and it was one of the lowest points so far for him and you could see in the interviews leading up to the game,he wanted revenge ;-)
I seem to recall that being suggested by someone earlier today.
Then you can extol her magnificence
We'll take it.
So TBH I'm hoping for similar.
Still, the future of Scotland is much brighter than the future of Wales.
Until a country can change its government, until politicians realise there is a price to be paid for failure or incompetence or corruption, then there is no real hope.
In true traditional Scottish style we had our BBQ this afternoon, eating in the conservatory. But BBQs survive drizzle better than cricket.
It's also however why the collapse if they go below that might be cliff-edge rather than the gradual decline we've seen in Scotland.
I just hope your family has booked the first day after yorkshires batting last season ;-) we don't want you celebrating too hard ;-)
I agree with you that the LibDems are partly responsible for the parlous state of Welsh politics, as they backed out of the Rainbow Coalition.
Plaid did best (30.5 % of the vote) in 1999 when they had as their leader a moderate social democrat (Dafydd Wigley). At that point, they were actually stronger than the SNP (who got 28 per cent of the vote in 1999 Scottish Parliamentary elections).
Plaid Cymru reacted by removing Wigley as leader. They then moved further left, which in terms of an electoral strategy was a huge mistake.
Plaid Cymru have unfortunately never missed an opportunity to miss an opportunity (as Abba Eban said of the Palestinians).
The ultras know that if we do leave both the single market and customs union the UK will move on, and there will never be any going back.
Wigley was forced out. Just like Carwyn yesterday !
The truth is Plaid is a very broad and complex coalition held together by a devotion to the Welsh language, a firm and not unjustified belief that Wales never gets a fair deal within the UK due to its small size and remoteness from London, a feeling that the English patronise and despise them and in some cases simple anti-English xenophobia. Some of these views are contradictory and lead to a lot of infighting.
There are undoubtedly radicals in Plaid, but also many who consider Theresa May dangerously left-wing on economic matters. One of them once said, quite seriously, that he was in favour of independence because he believed that was the only way Wales could break its poverty cycle by dramatic economic liberalisation. Singapore was his model. Others want full nationalisation of everything. Venezuela was much mentioned by them.
It's one reason why they are unable to establish themselves as an alternative opposition. It's very hard to put together a programme that will appeal to all the membership - never mind the voters in Blaenau Gwent and the sheep farmers of Meirionnydd. As a result, there is a ceiling to their growth.
Wood's aim seems to be to replace Labour in the valleys with a radical left wing programme and hope she doesn't lose too many votes in the West to another party. With the Liberal Democrats emasculated and the Conservatives still held in suspicion, she might succeed, but it is a delicate balancing act.
It is complicated because it is very difficult to imagine an independent Wales as economically viable and that leaves one potential bullet - independence - effectively off the table. The SNP have the huge advantage that for them independence clearly would be possible, so although they also have a disparate membership they can rally round that single standard.
There is a negotiation, but May needlessly weakened her own parliamentary position through the election last year.
I fear that Brexiteers won the war but will lose the peace, and consequently the war will have been for nothing.
A lot of twists and turns to come yet. But, I have been anticipating serious trouble in the Lords for months.
Are you still 100% in favour of Brexit if the government concedes a customs union that means someone else decides our trade policy?
I ask because I’m no longer sure myself.
Corbyn can plan to renationalise the railways of he wants to, but he better make sure that the government backed companies bidding for the franchises put in a better offer than any other company from across the EU. Or it’s off to the Court of Justice for you.
Then again, that’s hardly uncommon in the south (ducks for cover)...
That is why it seems more likely that any new party in power is presaged on either a Liberal Democrat revival or the growth of another meaningful fourth party.
@Theuniondivvie yes, I agree 2015 may have been considered a trifle precipitous for Labour. I was however thinking of their sustained long-term decline at Holyrood.
What was the point of it all if there is a blocking majority in both houses? It shouldn't come as a great surprise to those Brexiters with some knowledge of how our Parliamentary democracy works.