Currently there are enormous differences in the odds being offered against a 2018 General Election with Ladbrokes (and Corals) offering 10/1, whilst Hills go with a far more meagre 3/1. Given the Government's seemingly intractable problems over the question of a Customs Union and the resulting stress not only within Tory ranks but also in terms of its continuing reliance on support from the DUP, a GE over the near term, ie during 2018, appears far more likely than it did even a couple of months ago, making the Ladbrokes' odds look distinctly attractive imho. But as ever, DYOR!
Appreciate a well thought out betting post, but I can't agree. FTPA means that we only have an early election if:
1. PM wants one and can get it through Parliament; 2. Vote of no confidence.
I don't see why May would seek a snap election pre-Brexit, and I'm far from convinced a replacement Tory leader would either given how close to the negotiation deadline we'd be after a leadership election had elapsed. No confidence isn't impossible, but do the hardliners really hate the customs union (which needn't carry free movement of people with it) to trigger one given they can try and ditch May without a general election? Likewise with the DUP, if anything customs union ensures no border in the Irish sea so they may be mollified.
10/1 isn't bad odds, but I think the bookies are basically right that 2019 is the year to watch. If we get past that then 2022 is a real possibility.
"but do the hardliners really hate the customs union (which needn't carry free movement of people with it) to trigger one given they can try and ditch May without a general election? "
That's the unknown. imho it's a 'yes'.
The hardliners certainly care more about the customs union than they do about free movement of people, but voting against the government on a confidence motion (or threatening to) wouldn't be a viable way of getting what they want. Their only chance would be a challenge to May's leadership within the Tory party. Even then she'd be likely to win a confidence vote and that would cement her in place for at least a year.
Why do they care more? I'd been working on the assumption that the reverse was true (on the logic that immigration was the root of much concern), but I may be completely wrong.
Maureen Lipman said anti-Semitism in the Labour party is pushing her to vote for the Conservatives instead.
Asked if she is “becoming a Tory”, the actress, who had been a lifelong Labour voter, said: “I'm getting there. I can't be a Labour supporter any more. I’m a socialist in my heart, but how can I support this lot?”
Currently there are enormous differences in the odds being offered against a 2018 General Election with Ladbrokes (and Corals) offering 10/1, whilst Hills go with a far more meagre 3/1. Given the Government's seemingly intractable problems over the question of a Customs Union and the resulting stress not only within Tory ranks but also in terms of its continuing reliance on support from the DUP, a GE over the near term, ie during 2018, appears far more likely than it did even a couple of months ago, making the Ladbrokes' odds look distinctly attractive imho. But as ever, DYOR!
Appreciate a well thought out betting post, but I can't agree. FTPA means that we only have an early election if:
1. PM wants one and can get it through Parliament; 2. Vote of no confidence.
I don't see why May would seek a snap election pre-Brexit, and I'm far from convinced a replacement Tory leader would either given how close to the negotiation deadline we'd be after a leadership election had elapsed. No confidence isn't impossible, but do the hardliners really hate the customs union (which needn't carry free movement of people with it) to trigger one given they can try and ditch May without a general election? Likewise with the DUP, if anything customs union ensures no border in the Irish sea so they may be mollified.
10/1 isn't bad odds, but I think the bookies are basically right that 2019 is the year to watch. If we get past that then 2022 is a real possibility.
"but do the hardliners really hate the customs union (which needn't carry free movement of people with it) to trigger one given they can try and ditch May without a general election? "
That's the unknown. imho it's a 'yes'.
The hardliners certainly care more about the customs union than they do about free movement of people, but voting against the government on a confidence motion (or threatening to) wouldn't be a viable way of getting what they want. Their only chance would be a challenge to May's leadership within the Tory party. Even then she'd be likely to win a confidence vote and that would cement her in place for at least a year.
Why do they care more? I'd been working on the assumption that the reverse was true (on the logic that immigration was the root of much concern), but I may be completely wrong.
Immigration was a huge factor in the 2016 result, but Tory Euroscepticism is much more driven by opposition to political integration than about immigration policy. The customs union strikes at the heart of the vision of an independent, free-trading nation that they bought into lock, stock and barrel.
Currently there are enormous differences in the odds being offered against a 2018 General Election with Ladbrokes (and Corals) offering 10/1, whilst Hills go with a far more meagre 3/1. Given the Government's seemingly intractable problems over the question of a Customs Union and the resulting stress not only within Tory ranks but also in terms of its continuing reliance on support from the DUP, a GE over the near term, ie during 2018, appears far more likely than it did even a couple of months ago, making the Ladbrokes' odds look distinctly attractive imho. But as ever, DYOR!
Appreciate a well thought out betting post, but I can't agree. FTPA means that we only have an early election if:
1. PM wants one and can get it through Parliament; 2. Vote of no confidence.
I don't see why May would seek a snap election pre-Brexit, and I'm far from convinced a replacement Tory leader would either given how close to the negotiation deadline we'd be after a leadership election had elapsed. No confidence isn't impossible, but do the hardliners really hate the customs union (which needn't carry free movement of people with it) to trigger one given they can try and ditch May without a general election? Likewise with the DUP, if anything customs union ensures no border in the Irish sea so they may be mollified.
10/1 isn't bad odds, but I think the bookies are basically right that 2019 is the year to watch. If we get past that then 2022 is a real possibility.
"but do the hardliners really hate the customs union (which needn't carry free movement of people with it) to trigger one given they can try and ditch May without a general election? "
That's the unknown. imho it's a 'yes'.
Genuine Q: Why do you think this would be the tipping point? I'm unsure, but my logic for leaning against is that they didn't trigger a ballot or no confidence over the backstop position or 'Brexit bill', among others.
I've bet a smidgen against 2018 at 6.8. I think it is still a sell.
Corbyn speaking to Labour’s Welsh conference today:
“Here in Wales Labour is in Government showing the rest of us how our values, Labour’s socialist values can be put into practice… an endorsement of our radical programme for the government but also a positive change that a Labour government and devolution has brought about.”
Maureen Lipman said anti-Semitism in the Labour party is pushing her to vote for the Conservatives instead.
Asked if she is “becoming a Tory”, the actress, who had been a lifelong Labour voter, said: “I'm getting there. I can't be a Labour supporter any more. I’m a socialist in my heart, but how can I support this lot?”
Corbyn speaking to Labour’s Welsh conference today:
“Here in Wales Labour is in Government showing the rest of us how our values, Labour’s socialist values can be put into practice… an endorsement of our radical programme for the government but also a positive change that a Labour government and devolution has brought about.”
I see Labour's latest attempt to hide their anti semetic troubles is to try and call May a racist, supported by Sky News & The Guardian.
Also trying to stop the tidy up of illegal voting which gives Labour huge advantage.
Can you prove your assertion about illegal voting?
Isn't voter fraud illegal?
Yes but it is such a tiny, almost insignificant, event that claiming it gives any advantage to any party seems rather ludicrous. And whilst I entirely agree that all illegal activities should be dealt with by the authorities, there needs to be some sense of proportion.
Works well in Northern Ireland. Current system of control doesn't pass the smell test.
And just why are Labour so concerned with a convicted election fraudster in the leaders office?
It may not pass your smell test but it passes the reality test. The number of cases of electoral fraud are absolutely tiny, complete insignificant electorally and certainly aren't changing any seat results let alone any Government.
I find it remarkable that americans put up with such long campaigns - it seems a) extremely irritating, and b) means that members of congress, governors and others don't do their jobs properly half the time as they are preparing presidential runs.
The basic US system of government is still admirable. The barnacles that have grown atop it are not.
I wonder when US ‘progressives’ will start seriously agitating to change equal representation for the states in the Senate. I imagine they’ll focus on the electoral college first.
THe equal representation in the Senate is a good idea. It "protects" small states from domination of larger states.
However, the electoral college is absolutely rubbish. Apart from allowing the election of a candidate who could lose by several million votes, it effectively means the campaign takes place in only about 10 states and very intensively in about 5.
Who campaigns in CA, NY, TX, IL etc as well as in AK, WY, ND, SD and many other small states ?
This is an affront to democracy.
For the Presidential elections each and every vote should be equal.
There is not the bias you think there is in the electoral college.
Oh, really ! Californians and Hawaiians can know who the President is, even before some of them have voted.
I see Labour's latest attempt to hide their anti semetic troubles is to try and call May a racist, supported by Sky News & The Guardian.
Also trying to stop the tidy up of illegal voting which gives Labour huge advantage.
Can you prove your assertion about illegal voting?
Isn't voter fraud illegal?
Yes but it is such a tiny, almost insignificant, event that claiming it gives any advantage to any party seems rather ludicrous. And whilst I entirely agree that all illegal activities should be dealt with by the authorities, there needs to be some sense of proportion.
Works well in Northern Ireland. Current system of control doesn't pass the smell test.
And just why are Labour so concerned with a convicted election fraudster in the leaders office?
It may not pass your smell test but it passes the reality test. The number of cases of electoral fraud are absolutely tiny, complete insignificant electorally and certainly aren't changing any seat results let alone any Government.
Is it low because it isnt being done, or it isn’t being caught?
Corbyn speaking to Labour’s Welsh conference today:
“Here in Wales Labour is in Government showing the rest of us how our values, Labour’s socialist values can be put into practice… an endorsement of our radical programme for the government but also a positive change that a Labour government and devolution has brought about.”
Wales is poorer now than it was in 1998.
Of the 4 nations, Wales is bottom of all the international tables on education (behind Scotland, England and N, Ireland).
It seems clear that on some (many) metrics, Wales is behind England, Scotland and N. Ireland -- and some of the responsibility for this dismal performance rests with Welsh Labour.
Education and the NHS under labour in Wales is a shambles.
I had to wait 65 weeks for my bi lateral hernia op and the day my sister died in A & E against her express wishes was due to the fact we could not get a doctor to agree for her to pass in her nursing home as they were closed for training, (on a weekday) and the paramedics had no alternative to take in and she died 5 hours later. I have many other stories of a failing NHS in Wales
Currently there are enormous differences in the odds being offered against a 2018 General Election with Ladbrokes (and Corals) offering 10/1, whilst Hills go with a far more meagre 3/1. Given the Government's seemingly intractable problems over the question of a Customs Union and the resulting stress not only within Tory ranks but also in terms of its continuing reliance on support from the DUP, a GE over the near term, ie during 2018, appears far more likely than it did even a couple of months ago, making the Ladbrokes' odds look distinctly attractive imho. But as ever, DYOR!
Appreciate a well thought out betting post, but I can't agree. FTPA means that we only have an early election if:
1. PM wants one and can get it through Parliament; 2. Vote of no confidence.
I don't see why May would seek a snap election pre-Brexit, and I'm far from convinced a replacement Tory leader would either given how close to the negotiation deadline we'd be after a leadership election had elapsed. No confidence isn't impossible, but do the hardliners really hate the customs union (which needn't carry free movement of people with it) to trigger one given they can try and ditch May without a general election? Likewise with the DUP, if anything customs union ensures no border in the Irish sea so they may be mollified.
10/1 isn't bad odds, but I think the bookies are basically right that 2019 is the year to watch. If we get past that then 2022 is a real possibility.
I think the circumstances when an election comes about is when Parliament has voted for customs union.
So, what does May do then ?
She cannot pretend it didn't happen because both HoC and HoL will have voted for it.
If she really wants the UK out of the CU [ I doubt that - as I think she believes in very little ], the only way out for her is to call a GE, and asking the people to elect a new CON government and overturning the HoC decision. All before March 2019.
I see Labour's latest attempt to hide their anti semetic troubles is to try and call May a racist, supported by Sky News & The Guardian.
Also trying to stop the tidy up of illegal voting which gives Labour huge advantage.
By her actions, she has proved that she is more or less a racist like a lot of Tory leaders (Cameron was the one exception). The Tory share among ethnic minorities is derisory - a lot of the the good work done by Cameron has been undone.
I can't think of any recent Tory leader who has been a racist.
'Are you thinking what we're thinking?' No, nothing racist there.
Education and the NHS under labour in Wales is a shambles.
I had to wait 65 weeks for my bi lateral hernia op and the day my sister died in A & E against her express wishes was due to the fact we could not get a doctor to agree for her to pass in her nursing home as they were closed for training, (on a weekday) and the paramedics had no alternative to take in and she died 5 hours later. I have many other stories of a failing NHS in Wales
Maybe. Surprisingly, the people still choose Labour over Tory. Much was said before the 2016 GE that it would be a majority Con vote for the first time. Was it ?
Maureen Lipman said anti-Semitism in the Labour party is pushing her to vote for the Conservatives instead.
Asked if she is “becoming a Tory”, the actress, who had been a lifelong Labour voter, said: “I'm getting there. I can't be a Labour supporter any more. I’m a socialist in my heart, but how can I support this lot?”
How many times is she going to turn Tory ? This is becoming like Frank Sinatra's retirement.
If Labour are stupid enough to continually use 'celebrities' as a device to try to win votes, then they should not complain too much when those celebrities decide that Labour might not be for them.
I find the whole thing oddly repellent. It's treating the voters with contempt: "Look, we don't have much to say, but here's someone you may like to listen to. Look, we're all bathing in their golden arse-juices, and you may too."
Currently there are enormous differences in the odds being offered against a 2018 General Election with Ladbrokes (and Corals) offering 10/1, whilst Hills go with a far more meagre 3/1. Given the Government's seemingly intractable problems over the question of a Customs Union and the resulting stress not only within Tory ranks but also in terms of its continuing reliance on support from the DUP, a GE over the near term, ie during 2018, appears far more likely than it did even a couple of months ago, making the Ladbrokes' odds look distinctly attractive imho. But as ever, DYOR!
Appreciate a well thought out betting post, but I can't agree. FTPA means that we only have an early election if:
1. PM wants one and can get it through Parliament; 2. Vote of no confidence.
I don't see why May would seek a snap election pre-Brexit, and I'm far from convinced a replacement Tory leader would either given how close to the negotiation deadline we'd be after a leadership election had elapsed. No confidence isn't impossible, but do the hardliners really hate the customs union (which needn't carry free movement of people with it) to trigger one given they can try and ditch May without a general election? Likewise with the DUP, if anything customs union ensures no border in the Irish sea so they may be mollified.
10/1 isn't bad odds, but I think the bookies are basically right that 2019 is the year to watch. If we get past that then 2022 is a real possibility.
Quincel - Yep, the bookies essentially agree with your thinking, but General Elections like much else in politics don't always follow the logical, prescribed path and of course a 2018 GE requires something unexpected to happen, probably a vote of no confidence to justify those tasty odds of 10/1. The best odds currently available for the 5 possible years in question are:
Currently there are enormous differences in the odds being offered against a 2018 General Election with Ladbrokes (and Corals) offering 10/1, whilst Hills go with a far more meagre 3/1. Given the Government's seemingly intractable problems over the question of a Customs Union and the resulting stress not only within Tory ranks but also in terms of its continuing reliance on support from the DUP, a GE over the near term, ie during 2018, appears far more likely than it did even a couple of months ago, making the Ladbrokes' odds look distinctly attractive imho. But as ever, DYOR!
Appreciate a well thought out betting post, but I can't agree. FTPA means that we only have an early election if:
1. PM wants one and can get it through Parliament; 2. Vote of no confidence.
I don't see why May would seek a snap election pre-Brexit, and I'm far from convinced a replacement Tory leader would either given how close to the negotiation deadline we'd be after a leadership election had elapsed. No confidence isn't impossible, but do the hardliners really hate the customs union (which needn't carry free movement of people with it) to trigger one given they can try and ditch May without a general election? Likewise with the DUP, if anything customs union ensures no border in the Irish sea so they may be mollified.
10/1 isn't bad odds, but I think the bookies are basically right that 2019 is the year to watch. If we get past that then 2022 is a real possibility.
I think the circumstances when an election comes about is when Parliament has voted for customs union.
So, what does May do then ?
She cannot pretend it didn't happen because both HoC and HoL will have voted for it.
If she really wants the UK out of the CU [ I doubt that - as I think she believes in very little ], the only way out for her is to call a GE, and asking the people to elect a new CON government and overturning the HoC decision. All before March 2019.
Given that the final relationship won't be part of the withdrawal agreement anyway, she can just negotiate a text which is assumes an eventual Canada-style deal at some point in the distant future, and then hold a referendum on the deal with an option of Remain. That would supersede all of the parliamentary votes we've had so far.
It is a total illusion that is being sold to kids that going to any uni to do any old course will do them good.
They should apply for the civil service, you’re not allowed to put your university on your application.
It wouldn’t surprise me if that became mainstream, given the equality agenda in this country.
Are there still Civil Sevice entrance exams?
There are specific aptitude tests for the fast stream, and I had to do a maths test to get into the ONS.
I passed the CS general entrance exam as an EO when I was 18 - my first job was being in charge of about 40 lady typists who all seemed to me to be ancient. They did what they were supposed to and I left them to it - they mothered me and I earned loads more than all my friends who went to uni.
Maureen Lipman said anti-Semitism in the Labour party is pushing her to vote for the Conservatives instead.
Asked if she is “becoming a Tory”, the actress, who had been a lifelong Labour voter, said: “I'm getting there. I can't be a Labour supporter any more. I’m a socialist in my heart, but how can I support this lot?”
How many times is she going to turn Tory ? This is becoming like Frank Sinatra's retirement.
If Labour are stupid enough to continually use 'celebrities' as a device to try to win votes, then they should not complain too much when those celebrities decide that Labour might not be for them.
I find the whole thing oddly repellent. It's treating the voters with contempt: "Look, we don't have much to say, but here's someone you may like to listen to. Look, we're all bathing in their golden arse-juices, and you may too."
Witness
Labour under Jezza are moving on from using celebrities, they use normal folk like ones who support the BNP instead.
Currently there are enormous differences in the odds being offered against a 2018 General Election with Ladbrokes (and Corals) offering 10/1, whilst Hills go with a far more meagre 3/1. Given the Government's seemingly intractable problems over the question of a Customs Union and the resulting stress not only within Tory ranks but also in terms of its continuing reliance on support from the DUP, a GE over the near term, ie during 2018, appears far more likely than it did even a couple of months ago, making the Ladbrokes' odds look distinctly attractive imho. But as ever, DYOR!
Appreciate a well thought out betting post, but I can't agree. FTPA means that we only have an early election if:
1. PM wants one and can get it through Parliament; 2. Vote of no confidence.
I don't see why May would seek a snap election pre-Brexit, and I'm far from convinced a replacement Tory leader would either given how close to the negotiation deadline we'd be after a leadership election had elapsed. No confidence isn't impossible, but do the hardliners really hate the customs union (which needn't carry free movement of people with it) to trigger one given they can try and ditch May without a general election? Likewise with the DUP, if anything customs union ensures no border in the Irish sea so they may be mollified.
10/1 isn't bad odds, but I think the bookies are basically right that 2019 is the year to watch. If we get past that then 2022 is a real possibility.
I think the circumstances when an election comes about is when Parliament has voted for customs union.
So, what does May do then ?
She cannot pretend it didn't happen because both HoC and HoL will have voted for it.
If she really wants the UK out of the CU [ I doubt that - as I think she believes in very little ], the only way out for her is to call a GE, and asking the people to elect a new CON government and overturning the HoC decision. All before March 2019.
I think the EU, HOL and HOC have orchestrated a coup on Brexit this last week and that the numbers for leaving the customs union do not exist.
In these circumstances I expect TM will move towards the consensus and there is little the Brexiteers can do other than make a lot of noise. They are not going to threaten the government with Corbyn the alternative.
Personally I am fine with staying in the customs union though if there was a referendum and that was the choice then I would vote to stay in the EU as it seems stupid to part leave and have no say ( as JRM says a vassal state) but the consequences would be unpredictable with an enomous feeling of betrayal by the Brexiteers
I find it remarkable that americans put up with such long campaigns - it seems a) extremely irritating, and b) means that members of congress, governors and others don't do their jobs properly half the time as they are preparing presidential runs.
The basic US system of government is still admirable. The barnacles that have grown atop it are not.
I wonder when US ‘progressives’ will start seriously agitating to change equal representation for the states in the Senate. I imagine they’ll focus on the electoral college first.
THe equal representation in the Senate is a good idea. It "protects" small states from domination of larger states.
However, the electoral college is absolutely rubbish. Apart from allowing the election of a candidate who could lose by several million votes, it effectively means the campaign takes place in only about 10 states and very intensively in about 5.
Who campaigns in CA, NY, TX, IL etc as well as in AK, WY, ND, SD and many other small states ?
This is an affront to democracy.
For the Presidential elections each and every vote should be equal.
There is not the bias you think there is in the electoral college.
Looking at the Presidential elections since 2000 the Democrats electoral vote percentage was on average 4% higher than their popular vote percentage whereas for the Republicans it was 1% lower.
There may be a bias to the Republicans in close elections with a bias to the Democrats in elections where there is a clear winner in the popular vote.
Education and the NHS under labour in Wales is a shambles.
I had to wait 65 weeks for my bi lateral hernia op and the day my sister died in A & E against her express wishes was due to the fact we could not get a doctor to agree for her to pass in her nursing home as they were closed for training, (on a weekday) and the paramedics had no alternative to take in and she died 5 hours later. I have many other stories of a failing NHS in Wales
Maybe. Surprisingly, the people still choose Labour over Tory. Much was said before the 2016 GE that it would be a majority Con vote for the first time. Was it ?
A donkey would win if it was a labour candidate in Wales. Indeed many are
The basic US system of government is still admirable. The barnacles that have grown atop it are not.
I wonder when US ‘progressives’ will start seriously agitating to change equal representation for the states in the Senate. I imagine they’ll focus on the electoral college first.
THe equal representation in the Senate is a good idea. It "protects" small states from domination of larger states.
However, the electoral college is absolutely rubbish. Apart from allowing the election of a candidate who could lose by several million votes, it effectively means the campaign takes place in only about 10 states and very intensively in about 5.
Who campaigns in CA, NY, TX, IL etc as well as in AK, WY, ND, SD and many other small states ?
This is an affront to democracy.
For the Presidential elections each and every vote should be equal.
The equal representation in the Senate clause is entrenched and can't be amended or removed without the consent of every state.
As to the electoral college, it's purely convention that all the states choose their electors by popular vote: it used to be that many states, especially
Consequentially there is a National Popular Vote interstate compact[1] that would require the compacting states to allocate their electors proportionally to the national popular vote. This compact will come into effect once states comprising more than 50% of the electoral college sign up. Currently about 30% of the EC by states is signed up, including the biggies like CA and NY, but as it's predominately a Democrat-led initiative the chances of making the 50% any time soon are slim, as it'll require at least some Republican-controlled states to reach the target.
[1] States aren't supposed to make treaties with each other, "compacts" are a way around this
Another few years and Texas will likely go Democrat (with a very much outside chance of that happening this cycle). That will change a lot of calculations.
I think it could be some while before Texas flips, if it flips. However, the political outlook of US States can shift very rapidly.
Texas: 2016 R 52.2% D 43.2% 2012 R 57.2% D 41.4% 2008 R 55.5% D 43.7% 2004 R 61.1% D 38.2%
Appreciate a well thought out betting post, but I can't agree. FTPA means that we only have an early election if:
1. PM wants one and can get it through Parliament; 2. Vote of no confidence.
I don't see why May would seek a snap election pre-Brexit, and I'm far from convinced a replacement Tory leader would either given how close to the negotiation deadline we'd be after a leadership election had elapsed. No confidence isn't impossible, but do the hardliners really hate the customs union (which needn't carry free movement of people with it) to trigger one given they can try and ditch May without a general election? Likewise with the DUP, if anything customs union ensures no border in the Irish sea so they may be mollified.
10/1 isn't bad odds, but I think the bookies are basically right that 2019 is the year to watch. If we get past that then 2022 is a real possibility.
I think the circumstances when an election comes about is when Parliament has voted for customs union.
So, what does May do then ?
She cannot pretend it didn't happen because both HoC and HoL will have voted for it.
If she really wants the UK out of the CU [ I doubt that - as I think she believes in very little ], the only way out for her is to call a GE, and asking the people to elect a new CON government and overturning the HoC decision. All before March 2019.
I think the EU, HOL and HOC have orchestrated a coup on Brexit this last week and that the numbers for leaving the customs union do not exist.
In these circumstances I expect TM will move towards the consensus and there is little the Brexiteers can do other than make a lot of noise. They are not going to threaten the government with Corbyn the alternative.
Personally I am fine with staying in the customs union though if there was a referendum and that was the choice then I would vote to stay in the EU as it seems stupid to part leave and have no say ( as JRM says a vassal state) but the consequences would be unpredictable with an enomous feeling of betrayal by the Brexiteers
The UK has about as much say in the EU as a Conservative supporter has in Liverpool.
Education and the NHS under labour in Wales is a shambles.
I had to wait 65 weeks for my bi lateral hernia op and the day my sister died in A & E against her express wishes was due to the fact we could not get a doctor to agree for her to pass in her nursing home as they were closed for training, (on a weekday) and the paramedics had no alternative to take in and she died 5 hours later. I have many other stories of a failing NHS in Wales
Maybe. Surprisingly, the people still choose Labour over Tory. Much was said before the 2016 GE that it would be a majority Con vote for the first time. Was it ?
A donkey would win if it was a labour candidate in Wales. Indeed many are
Just like the braying Tories in the Home Counties then.
Education and the NHS under labour in Wales is a shambles.
I had to wait 65 weeks for my bi lateral hernia op and the day my sister died in A & E against her express wishes was due to the fact we could not get a doctor to agree for her to pass in her nursing home as they were closed for training, (on a weekday) and the paramedics had no alternative to take in and she died 5 hours later. I have many other stories of a failing NHS in Wales
Maybe. Surprisingly, the people still choose Labour over Tory. Much was said before the 2016 GE that it would be a majority Con vote for the first time. Was it ?
A donkey would win if it was a labour candidate in Wales. Indeed many are
Just like the braying Tories in the Home Counties then.
Unless someone is a LD, who even in what look(ed) like relatively safe seats may face a struggle, it is very very easy to find donkeys of every hue.
Not that this means the LDs put up universally good candidates of course, but that isn't because they are taking seats for granted like the others, but for other reasons.
The basic US system of government is still admirable. The barnacles that have grown atop it are not.
I wonder when US ‘progressives’ will start seriously agitating to change equal representation for the states in the Senate. I imagine they’ll focus on the electoral college first.
THe equal representation in the Senate is a good idea. It "protects" small states from domination of larger states.
However, the electoral college is absolutely rubbish. Apart from allowing the election of a candidate who could lose by several million votes, it effectively means the campaign takes place in only about 10 states and very intensively in about 5.
Who campaigns in CA, NY, TX, IL etc as well as in AK, WY, ND, SD and many other small states ?
This is an affront to democracy.
For the Presidential elections each and every vote should be equal.
The equal representation in the Senate clause is entrenched and can't be amended or removed without the consent of every state.
As to the electoral college, it's purely convention that all the states choose their electors by popular vote: it used to be that many states, especially
Consequentially there is a National Popular Vote interstate compact[1] that would require the compacting states to allocate their electors proportionally to the national popular vote. This compact will come into effect once states comprising more than 50% of the electoral college sign up. Currently about 30% of the EC by states is signed up, including the biggies like CA and NY, but as it's predominately a Democrat-led initiative the chances of making the 50% any time soon are slim, as it'll require at least some Republican-controlled states to reach the target.
[1] States aren't supposed to make treaties with each other, "compacts" are a way around this
Another few years and Texas will likely go Democrat (with a very much outside chance of that happening this cycle). That will change a lot of calculations.
I think it could be some while before Texas flips, if it flips. However, the political outlook of US States can shift very rapidly.
Texas: 2016 R 52.2% D 43.2% 2012 R 57.2% D 41.4% 2008 R 55.5% D 43.7% 2004 R 61.1% D 38.2%
I didn't say in 2020. I said probably 2024.
Way to pick the peak of the trend. The Dems were at 43.8% in 1996. So they’ve got nowhere in 20 years.
Education and the NHS under labour in Wales is a shambles.
I had to wait 65 weeks for my bi lateral hernia op and the day my sister died in A & E against her express wishes was due to the fact we could not get a doctor to agree for her to pass in her nursing home as they were closed for training, (on a weekday) and the paramedics had no alternative to take in and she died 5 hours later. I have many other stories of a failing NHS in Wales
Maybe. Surprisingly, the people still choose Labour over Tory. Much was said before the 2016 GE that it would be a majority Con vote for the first time. Was it ?
A donkey would win if it was a labour candidate in Wales. Indeed many are
Just like the braying Tories in the Home Counties then.
The Home Counties are very wealthy. It doesn't matter if their representatives are donkeys.
The Welsh Valleys are desperately poor. It is a sin for Labour to put up donkeys for those positions.
One of the most remarkable things over the last year is that person who has done most to highlight how very few Welsh students get to Oxbridge is David Lammy.
David Lammy, of all people, a London MP. It was left to David Lammy to illustrate how unfair the educational system is for Welsh students.
There is a whole roster of vacuous Welsh donkey Labour MPs, and Welsh donkey AMs and a fecking Welsh Labour Government. None of them managed to say anything about this over the last two decades.
God bless David Lammy.
If there were Welsh Labour MPs of his calibre, willing to fight as much for Wales & Welsh people as Lammy is to fight for the people of Tottenham, then I'd be voting Labour.
Currently there are enormous differences in the odds being offered against a 2018 General Election with Ladbrokes (and Corals) offering 10/1, whilst Hills go with a far more meagre 3/1. Given the Government's seemingly intractable problems over the question of a Customs Union and the resulting stress not only within Tory ranks but also in terms of its continuing reliance on support from the DUP, a GE over the near term, ie during 2018, appears far more likely than it did even a couple of months ago, making the Ladbrokes' odds look distinctly attractive imho. But as ever, DYOR!
Appreciate a well thought out betting post, but I can't agree. FTPA means that we only have an early election if:
1. PM wants one and can get it through Parliament; 2. Vote of no confidence.
I don't see why May would seek a snap election pre-Brexit, and I'm far from convinced a replacement Tory leader would either given how close to the negotiation deadline we'd be after a leadership election had elapsed. No confidence isn't impossible, but do the hardliners really hate the customs union (which needn't carry free movement of people with it) to trigger one given they can try and ditch May without a general election? Likewise with the DUP, if anything customs union ensures no border in the Irish sea so they may be mollified.
10/1 isn't bad odds, but I think the bookies are basically right that 2019 is the year to watch. If we get past that then 2022 is a real possibility.
Quincel - Yep, the bookies essentially agree with your thinking, but General Elections like much else in politics don't always follow the logical, prescribed path and of course a 2018 GE requires something unexpected to happen, probably a vote of no confidence to justify those tasty odds of 10/1. The best odds currently available for the 5 possible years in question are:
I still think 2018 is the value bet, possibly with 2019 as a saver.
All things being equal, this parliament should go to term, possibly with May or with another Tory leader. The reasons for not doing so are that the government can't govern any more or it sees a 2017-style opportunity to crush the saboteurs, aka Labour. I would say there is little reason to expect this to happen sooner (2018, 2019) rather than later (2020, 2021)
Education and the NHS under labour in Wales is a shambles.
I had to wait 65 weeks for my bi lateral hernia op and the day my sister died in A & E against her express wishes was due to the fact we could not get a doctor to agree for her to pass in her nursing home as they were closed for training, (on a weekday) and the paramedics had no alternative to take in and she died 5 hours later. I have many other stories of a failing NHS in Wales
Maybe. Surprisingly, the people still choose Labour over Tory. Much was said before the 2016 GE that it would be a majority Con vote for the first time. Was it ?
A donkey would win if it was a labour candidate in Wales. Indeed many are
Just like the braying Tories in the Home Counties then.
The Home Counties are very wealthy. It doesn't matter if their representatives are donkeys.
The Welsh Valleys are desperately poor. It is a sin for Labour to put up donkeys for those positions.
One of the most remarkable things over the last year is that person who has done most to highlight how very few Welsh students get to Oxbridge is David Lammy.
David Lammy, of all people, a London MP. It was left to David Lammy to illustrate how unfair the educational system is for Welsh students.
There is a whole roster of vacuous Welsh donkey Labour MPs, and Welsh donkey AMs and a fecking Welsh Labour Government. None of them managed to say anything about this over the last two decades.
God bless David Lammy.
If there were Welsh Labour MPs of his calibre, willing to fight as much for Wales & Welsh people as Lammy is to fight for the people of Tottenham, then I'd be voting Labour.
Education and the NHS under labour in Wales is a shambles.
I had to wait 65 weeks for my bi lateral hernia op and the day my sister died in A & E against her express wishes was due to the fact we could not get a doctor to agree for her to pass in her nursing home as they were closed for training, (on a weekday) and the paramedics had no alternative to take in and she died 5 hours later. I have many other stories of a failing NHS in Wales
Maybe. Surprisingly, the people still choose Labour over Tory. Much was said before the 2016 GE that it would be a majority Con vote for the first time. Was it ?
A donkey would win if it was a labour candidate in Wales. Indeed many are
Mr G, I am personally acquainted with Mr Alun Davies of the Welsh Executive, tipped as an outsider to succeed Carwyn Jones.
He is not in any way, shape, or form a donkey.
Unless we are talking about an especially stupid donkey.
In principle we ought to be able to do a better job of identifying people if we had a system designed for that purpose, rather than using all the various types of proxy approaches that I've listed before.
I don't want the Government to be able to do a better job of identifying people.
Now I live in Denmark I find the ‘gulkort’ we all have to be very useful. But then in Denmark you have to register with your kommune and it’s pretty hard to function as an illegal immigrant. The utility of having what is effectively an ID card in a country where I have faith in the government far outweighs my old view when I lived in the UK that my life was none of the govt’s business
I am not sure I would have any long term faith in the country which invented the Janteloven.
You blame an entire country for the books of one man? Isn't that the kind of collectivism you decry?
Nope. Having lived and worked in both Denmark and Norway I believe it is an accurate reflection of the mind set of an important section of public and governmental opinion in those those countries. What personal experience do you have of those countries before you feel fit to comment on other views of them?
Oh dear - that’s as bad as people who write Guardian arricles about ‘hygge’. Sure Denmark has issues like any country but it has stable government, active political engagement and a firm attachment to its constitution which is why I like the NemID system and the digital public services - just because you worked on a few oil rigs does not make you an informed commentator - though I realise that’s quite common on PB with some posters.
Education and the NHS under labour in Wales is a shambles.
I had to wait 65 weeks for my bi lateral hernia op and the day my sister died in A & E against her express wishes was due to the fact we could not get a doctor to agree for her to pass in her nursing home as they were closed for training, (on a weekday) and the paramedics had no alternative to take in and she died 5 hours later. I have many other stories of a failing NHS in Wales
Maybe. Surprisingly, the people still choose Labour over Tory. Much was said before the 2016 GE that it would be a majority Con vote for the first time. Was it ?
A donkey would win if it was a labour candidate in Wales. Indeed many are
Just like the braying Tories in the Home Counties then.
The Home Counties are very wealthy. It doesn't matter if their representatives are donkeys.
The Welsh Valleys are desperately poor. It is a sin for Labour to put up donkeys for those positions.
One of the most remarkable things over the last year is that person who has done most to highlight how very few Welsh students get to Oxbridge is David Lammy.
David Lammy, of all people, a London MP. It was left to David Lammy to illustrate how unfair the educational system is for Welsh students.
There is a whole roster of vacuous Welsh donkey Labour MPs, and Welsh donkey AMs and a fecking Welsh Labour Government. None of them managed to say anything about this over the last two decades.
God bless David Lammy.
If there were Welsh Labour MPs of his calibre, willing to fight as much for Wales & Welsh people as Lammy is to fight for the people of Tottenham, then I'd be voting Labour.
Lammy, for all his faults, is an excellent MP.
He is and makes Dawn Butler look as stupid as she is
Education and the NHS under labour in Wales is a shambles.
I had to wait 65 weeks for my bi lateral hernia op and the day my sister died in A & E against her express wishes was due to the fact we could not get a doctor to agree for her to pass in her nursing home as they were closed for training, (on a weekday) and the paramedics had no alternative to take in and she died 5 hours later. I have many other stories of a failing NHS in Wales
Maybe. Surprisingly, the people still choose Labour over Tory. Much was said before the 2016 GE that it would be a majority Con vote for the first time. Was it ?
A donkey would win if it was a labour candidate in Wales. Indeed many are
Mr G, I am personally acquainted with Mr Alun Davies of the Welsh Executive, tipped as an outsider to succeed Carwyn Jones.
He is not in any way, shape, or form a donkey.
Unless we are talking about an especially stupid donkey.
Labour need to lose power to a coalition of the opposition
"What is coming across to me loud and clear is the extent to which so many multinationals and smaller businesses are making contingency plans to relocate to mainland Europe."
Education and the NHS under labour in Wales is a shambles.
I had to wait 65 weeks for my bi lateral hernia op and the day my sister died in A & E against her express wishes was due to the fact we could not get a doctor to agree for her to pass in her nursing home as they were closed for training, (on a weekday) and the paramedics had no alternative to take in and she died 5 hours later. I have many other stories of a failing NHS in Wales
Maybe. Surprisingly, the people still choose Labour over Tory. Much was said before the 2016 GE that it would be a majority Con vote for the first time. Was it ?
A donkey would win if it was a labour candidate in Wales. Indeed many are
Mr G, I am personally acquainted with Mr Alun Davies of the Welsh Executive, tipped as an outsider to succeed Carwyn Jones.
He is not in any way, shape, or form a donkey.
Unless we are talking about an especially stupid donkey.
Education and the NHS under labour in Wales is a shambles.
I had to wait 65 weeks for my bi lateral hernia op and the day my sister died in A & E against her express wishes was due to the fact we could not get a doctor to agree for her to pass in her nursing home as they were closed for training, (on a weekday) and the paramedics had no alternative to take in and she died 5 hours later. I have many other stories of a failing NHS in Wales
Maybe. Surprisingly, the people still choose Labour over Tory. Much was said before the 2016 GE that it would be a majority Con vote for the first time. Was it ?
A donkey would win if it was a labour candidate in Wales. Indeed many are
Mr G, I am personally acquainted with Mr Alun Davies of the Welsh Executive, tipped as an outsider to succeed Carwyn Jones.
He is not in any way, shape, or form a donkey.
Unless we are talking about an especially stupid donkey.
Education and the NHS under labour in Wales is a shambles.
I had to wait 65 weeks for my bi lateral hernia op and the day my sister died in A & E against her express wishes was due to the fact we could not get a doctor to agree for her to pass in her nursing home as they were closed for training, (on a weekday) and the paramedics had no alternative to take in and she died 5 hours later. I have many other stories of a failing NHS in Wales
Maybe. Surprisingly, the people still choose Labour over Tory. Much was said before the 2016 GE that it would be a majority Con vote for the first time. Was it ?
A donkey would win if it was a labour candidate in Wales. Indeed many are
Mr G, I am personally acquainted with Mr Alun Davies of the Welsh Executive, tipped as an outsider to succeed Carwyn Jones.
He is not in any way, shape, or form a donkey.
Unless we are talking about an especially stupid donkey.
Education and the NHS under labour in Wales is a shambles.
I had to wait 65 weeks for my bi lateral hernia op and the day my sister died in A & E against her express wishes was due to the fact we could not get a doctor to agree for her to pass in her nursing home as they were closed for training, (on a weekday) and the paramedics had no alternative to take in and she died 5 hours later. I have many other stories of a failing NHS in Wales
Maybe. Surprisingly, the people still choose Labour over Tory. Much was said before the 2016 GE that it would be a majority Con vote for the first time. Was it ?
A donkey would win if it was a labour candidate in Wales. Indeed many are
Mr G, I am personally acquainted with Mr Alun Davies of the Welsh Executive, tipped as an outsider to succeed Carwyn Jones.
He is not in any way, shape, or form a donkey.
Unless we are talking about an especially stupid donkey.
Hard to find much fault with that list. Depressing in the sheer thinness of the talent on offer. Huw Irranca Davies would be the best in all probability but also the least likely to win.
Labour need to lose power to a coalition of the opposition
It should have happened 11 years ago and the failure of the Liberal Democrats to grasp what unfortunately proved a unique opportunity is still causing major problems.
Labour are exhausted. They have had the longest run of any party with national executive power since 1830 and they are clearly floundering. They have no ideas, no talent and when Alun Davies and Leighton Andrews have been invited back despite their pasts it's clear they have no integrity and appointments go by favour only. When the end comes for them I think it will be sudden and dramatic - possibly crashing from first to third (or worse) in one election a la the Canadian Progressive Conerservatives, and for much the same reasons. They will end up in a situation where even allowing for deeply ingrained tribal instinct nobody is willing to vote for them.
The catch is that unlike in Scotland no one party has established itself as the clear alternative, and the two parties in joint second place hold each other in deep suspicion. They will not be willing to work together - indeed they're wasting a lot of energy fighting each other rather than focussing fire on Labour. Therefore absent a revival of the Liberal Democrats, it's not easy to see where an alternative government would come from.
Complicating matters are the regional political complexities. Plaid have a stranglehold on the Welsh-speaking west, Labour lock out the Valleys and the north-East, the Conservatives are strongest around the edges and the Liberal Democrats have lingering redoubts in the middle. It is hard to see how that will change even in a collapse. For example, it's easy enough to see Plaid replacing Labour in the western Valleys around Neath, Merthyr and Llanelli should the Labour hegemony crack, somewhat difficult to see them taking Wrexham or Delyn. Equally it is hard to see the Conservatives make headway in the rural west where their views would be most sympathetically received ordinarily because of the language issue, and damn near impossible to see them taking over the valleys outside maybe a couple of wealthier seats in Cardiff and Swansea.
So I have to say I can't see any light at the end of the tunnel for Wales, I'm afraid. Ironically, it might be better in the medium term to have an absolute dud as First Minister in the hope it hastens the collapse.
He is in America which is why it's news here. There are more than 90 nations with a higher murder rate than the USA yet we rarely here about murders in those nations.
American lives matter - because CNN, Fox and the news agencies dictate they matter.
Comments
Asked if she is “becoming a Tory”, the actress, who had been a lifelong Labour voter, said: “I'm getting there. I can't be a Labour supporter any more. I’m a socialist in my heart, but how can I support this lot?”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/04/22/maureen-lipman-says-labours-anti-semitism-pushing-vote-tory/
“Here in Wales Labour is in Government showing the rest of us how our values, Labour’s socialist values can be put into practice… an endorsement of our radical programme for the government but also a positive change that a Labour government and devolution has brought about.”
The struggle to improve the worst education system in Britain
https://www.economist.com/news/britain/21719404-poverty-only-one-explanation-bad-test-results-wales-struggle-improve-worst
https://news.sky.com/story/windrush-scandal-theresa-may-accused-of-running-institutionally-racist-government-11342346
Of the 4 nations, Wales is bottom of all the international tables on education (behind Scotland, England and N, Ireland).
It seems clear that on some (many) metrics, Wales is behind England, Scotland and N. Ireland -- and some of the responsibility for this dismal performance rests with Welsh Labour.
I had to wait 65 weeks for my bi lateral hernia op and the day my sister died in A & E against her express wishes was due to the fact we could not get a doctor to agree for her to pass in her nursing home as they were closed for training, (on a weekday) and the paramedics had no alternative to take in and she died 5 hours later. I have many other stories of a failing NHS in Wales
So, what does May do then ?
She cannot pretend it didn't happen because both HoC and HoL will have voted for it.
If she really wants the UK out of the CU [ I doubt that - as I think she believes in very little ], the only way out for her is to call a GE, and asking the people to elect a new CON government and overturning the HoC decision. All before March 2019.
I find the whole thing oddly repellent. It's treating the voters with contempt: "Look, we don't have much to say, but here's someone you may like to listen to. Look, we're all bathing in their golden arse-juices, and you may too."
Witness
The best odds currently available for the 5 possible years in question are:
2018 ... 10/1
2019 .... 8/3 (net Betfair)
2020 .... 9/1
2021 .... 9/1
2022 .... 1.29/1 (net Betfair)
I still think 2018 is the value bet, possibly with 2019 as a saver.
In these circumstances I expect TM will move towards the consensus and there is little the Brexiteers can do other than make a lot of noise. They are not going to threaten the government with Corbyn the alternative.
Personally I am fine with staying in the customs union though if there was a referendum and that was the choice then I would vote to stay in the EU as it seems stupid to part leave and have no say ( as JRM says a vassal state) but the consequences would be unpredictable with an enomous feeling of betrayal by the Brexiteers
There may be a bias to the Republicans in close elections with a bias to the Democrats in elections where there is a clear winner in the popular vote.
2016 R 52.2% D 43.2%
2012 R 57.2% D 41.4%
2008 R 55.5% D 43.7%
2004 R 61.1% D 38.2%
I didn't say in 2020. I said probably 2024.
Not that this means the LDs put up universally good candidates of course, but that isn't because they are taking seats for granted like the others, but for other reasons.
The Welsh Valleys are desperately poor. It is a sin for Labour to put up donkeys for those positions.
One of the most remarkable things over the last year is that person who has done most to highlight how very few Welsh students get to Oxbridge is David Lammy.
David Lammy, of all people, a London MP. It was left to David Lammy to illustrate how unfair the educational system is for Welsh students.
There is a whole roster of vacuous Welsh donkey Labour MPs, and Welsh donkey AMs and a fecking Welsh Labour Government. None of them managed to say anything about this over the last two decades.
God bless David Lammy.
If there were Welsh Labour MPs of his calibre, willing to fight as much for Wales & Welsh people as Lammy is to fight for the people of Tottenham, then I'd be voting Labour.
Mennie has had a pretty good game. If Hameed could find his form (as most of a England are hoping), Lancashire would look a useful side.
He is not in any way, shape, or form a donkey.
Unless we are talking about an especially stupid donkey.
As I said I don't think it's going to be quite as easy as they anticipate to get promoted.
Admittedly they are two bowlers down but they are also being brutally torn apart by the second weakest team in the division.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/apr/22/shakespeare-sceptrd-isle-part-europe-brexit
Labour are exhausted. They have had the longest run of any party with national executive power since 1830 and they are clearly floundering. They have no ideas, no talent and when Alun Davies and Leighton Andrews have been invited back despite their pasts it's clear they have no integrity and appointments go by favour only. When the end comes for them I think it will be sudden and dramatic - possibly crashing from first to third (or worse) in one election a la the Canadian Progressive Conerservatives, and for much the same reasons. They will end up in a situation where even allowing for deeply ingrained tribal instinct nobody is willing to vote for them.
The catch is that unlike in Scotland no one party has established itself as the clear alternative, and the two parties in joint second place hold each other in deep suspicion. They will not be willing to work together - indeed they're wasting a lot of energy fighting each other rather than focussing fire on Labour. Therefore absent a revival of the Liberal Democrats, it's not easy to see where an alternative government would come from.
Complicating matters are the regional political complexities. Plaid have a stranglehold on the Welsh-speaking west, Labour lock out the Valleys and the north-East, the Conservatives are strongest around the edges and the Liberal Democrats have lingering redoubts in the middle. It is hard to see how that will change even in a collapse. For example, it's easy enough to see Plaid replacing Labour in the western Valleys around Neath, Merthyr and Llanelli should the Labour hegemony crack, somewhat difficult to see them taking Wrexham or Delyn. Equally it is hard to see the Conservatives make headway in the rural west where their views would be most sympathetically received ordinarily because of the language issue, and damn near impossible to see them taking over the valleys outside maybe a couple of wealthier seats in Cardiff and Swansea.
So I have to say I can't see any light at the end of the tunnel for Wales, I'm afraid. Ironically, it might be better in the medium term to have an absolute dud as First Minister in the hope it hastens the collapse.
American lives matter - because CNN, Fox and the news agencies dictate they matter.