I am withdrawing from the position of UKIP PPC for Cambridge. My friends on PB will know before everybody else.
The timing of the UKIP conference didn't help---it was deemed important we only had positive stories.
Sorry to hear that. It sounded like a 1-day story and UKIP might have been wiser to just ignore it. David has struck most of us as eminently reasonable, and I'd have thought UKIP needed obviously reasonable people among those who might, cough, be considered otherwise.
So today the Syrian Deputy PM suggests that the civil war is at a stalemate and neither side has a decisive capacity to win.
So there it is, official: At the very least, Assad wasn't winning.
So what exactly have the Western media been reporting for the last few months?
Meanwhile insurgent infighting has reached proper levels. ISIS, a direct offshoot of the Iraqi jihadists may have bitten off more than it can chew near the Turkish border with Free Syrian Army threats to take them on if they don't get in line. Ultimately the ISIS forces in the area will lose as the FSA have more firepower and appear to have some assistance from the Turkish military who don't want the jihadists hanging about on their border.
The problem for the Free Syrian Army though is acute, they are effectively having to fight to the rear if conflicts like this spread.
From David's post it sounds like UKIP themselves would rather not have had the bother rather than David being frightened off by the local paper. When you consider the dross UKIP are likely to stand in many seats (simply because they will be desperate for candidates) to give up on someone as capable / reasonable as David is a shame.
Looks like a terrible night for the coalition in by-elections is balanced by a narrowing Youguv
.I will stay slightly skeptical of the same till it is reflected by other pollsters.
YouGov. Heh. BAAAAAAAAAD for Labour.
You are equal or maybe 1 point ahead, in midterm, against a "very unpopular Coalition" - and you are the ONLY major Opposition party - and you are led by the least admired political leader in recent Labour history.
It's not "optimal", is it?
SMukesh, it's the trend as much as the absolute numbers.
Less than 70 hours to go to the German exit polls. The main parties seem to be getting more and more worried that AfD might make the 5% threshold.
Wouldnt is suit Merkel for them to get above the threshold? An excuse for a grand coalition (price has indeed come in since a few days ago when it was looking generous) and it would remove the threat of the SPD being able to take such a coalition down mid-term (because an SPD / Green alliance with Die Linke support wouldnt have a majority). I can definitely see benefits for her.
Pretty sensational Labour gain from 3rd place in Oxford.
Despite my tactical voting, Labour have done well at the LD's expense across Oxford in the two years I've been there.
My reading was that there was a narrowing and then a stabilisation around 3-4 points across all posters.And the mood music was getting slightly favourable to Lab with the debate around cost of living etc.But hey,am just one voter and perhaps I have missed something in the undercurrent.
Just catching up with the threads tonight and saw that Alex Salmond 'would reverse Royal Mail sale' via the BBC. This is quite a significant intervention by Salmond, and it shows just how desperate the SNP have become a year out from the Indy Ref with the current polling on the issue. We still await the SNP Independence White Paper, but when the SNP are reduced to trying to frame the debate for Independence around a bribe to bring back the Royal Mail and reversing the bedroom tax, you know they have lost all the big arguments in this debate.
Their many slogans such as 'project fear' or 'too wee, too poor, too stupid' are equally desperate, and the best free PR for the Better together campaign. Lets face it, the SNP are actually highlighting the very gamble Scots would be taking with Independence far better then their opponents. They are like a second hand car salesman promising yet more State funded goodies with a jovially wink and 'we can afford it because you are worth it'. Only, the more they promise, the more the voters are asking 'can we really afford this with Independence'?
Pretty sensational Labour gain from 3rd place in Oxford.
Despite my tactical voting, Labour have done well at the LD's expense across Oxford in the two years I've been there.
My reading was that there was a narrowing and then a stabilisation around 3-4 points across all posters.And the mood music was getting slightly favourable to Lab with the debate around cost of living etc.But hey,am just one voter and perhaps I have missed something in the undercurrent.
I think you quoted the wrong post, but anyway, until two weeks ago 5-6 was the norm and had been for a couple of months. There's quite a change between that and even 3-4 points.
What is the point of politics if people like Mr Kendrick are forced out of running for office? I had a meeting yesterday with someone who had held a minor post in the first term Obama administration. He said the screening process he went through was unbelievably intrusive and that many really good people just would not subject themselves to it. Thus, we all too often end up with mediocrities merely because they don't care about laying their lives open to strangers and/or because they have never made a mistake - not even an unwitting one - and so have missed out on fundamental life experiences.
I don't share your politics David, but I don't doubt you are a good man who wants to do his bit. UKIP is much the poorer this evening. You'll bounce back soon enough.
Southam, I don't always agree with you, but in this I think you are spot on and you are a true gent for saying it.
There's currently an extraordinarily wide discrepancy between the best and worst prices available against Man City winning this season's Premier League title - whereas Betfred and the Tote offer a measly 2/1, Betdaq's price is 47% better at 2.945/1, or 4.1 decimal before their commission. This is all the more surprising for what is a major betting market.
Ahead of this weekend's City vs Utd duel which I'm confident the blues will win, and taking advantage of the debacle at Chelsea which I suspect may continue for some time yet, I've taken advantage of what to me looks like a very tasty opportunity and invested £30 with Betdaq to collect a net profit of £88.35 if I'm proved right.
Less than 70 hours to go to the German exit polls. The main parties seem to be getting more and more worried that AfD might make the 5% threshold.
Wouldnt is suit Merkel for them to get above the threshold? An excuse for a grand coalition (price has indeed come in since a few days ago when it was looking generous) and it would remove the threat of the SPD being able to take such a coalition down mid-term (because an SPD / Green alliance with Die Linke support wouldnt have a majority). I can definitely see benefits for her.
That's probably true in the short term but it'll obviously be a major change to have anti-Europeans in the Bundestag for the first time which could completely alter the dynamics of German politics in a way Merkel probably won't be happy with.
Good result for Lab in Oxford, even if they won the ward in May. Disappointing as it's one of the top 5 Lib Dem targets for a gain in 2015.
Sorry to hear of David Kendrick being forced out, compared to the other reasons various UKIP folks have stood down this seems trivial. He is a gent and whatever his views on the EU, can't help thinking that he can do better than UKIP...you could say better off out
Lab 1053 UKIP 478 Con 190 BNP 120 Green 33 NF 16 Spoilt 6
Not particularly close afterall
If UKIP as the northern urban alternative gets baked in enough for the Con vote to all switch over that could bring seats like this into play as the smaller the gap the more non-voters will think it's worth bothering.
Pretty sensational Labour gain from 3rd place in Oxford.
Despite my tactical voting, Labour have done well at the LD's expense across Oxford in the two years I've been there.
My reading was that there was a narrowing and then a stabilisation around 3-4 points across all posters.And the mood music was getting slightly favourable to Lab with the debate around cost of living etc.But hey,am just one voter and perhaps I have missed something in the undercurrent.
I think you quoted the wrong post, but anyway, until two weeks ago 5-6 was the norm and had been for a couple of months. There's quite a change between that and even 3-4 points.
I`ll be interesting to see if Populus out tomorrow bears out this narrowing which has occurred since Monday.
The memoir will send shockwaves through the Labour party ahead of next week’s annual conference.
The key revelations it contains include:
Mr McBride helped destroy Home Secretary Charles Clarke by fabricating a briefing war between him and a key adviser to Tony Blair;
Another obstacle to Mr Brown, John Reid, quit the same Cabinet post after Mr McBride leaked details of his alleged ‘drinking, fighting and carousing’;
Allegations about another minister, Ivan Lewis, pestering a female aide were leaked to punish him for criticising Mr Brown’s tax policies;
Mr McBride confesses to logging in to Mr Brown’s office email and leaking details of restricted or confidential documents to discredit opponents;
Mr Brown developed an elaborate ‘political intelligence operation’ with ‘moles’ on the teams of rival ministers;
Shadow foreign secretary Douglas Alexander knifed his own sister Wendy, the Scottish Labour leader, urging her dismissal over a minor donations controversy;
As his premiership faltered, Mr Brown desperately tried to recruit celebrity advisers including Simon Cowell, Lorraine Kelly, Fiona Phillips and Lord Sugar.
Less than 70 hours to go to the German exit polls. The main parties seem to be getting more and more worried that AfD might make the 5% threshold.
Yes, I was wrong to think they had no chance - they're getting plenty of coverage. There is a huge row in Hessen, where they also have state elections on Sunday and the national deputy CDU chair declined to rule out a local coalition with them. They responded curtly that they wouldn't ally with a Europhile like him, and within 24 hours he was "giving his word of honour" not to ally with them. Merkel has categorically ruled out any pact with them, making a pact with the SPD more likely.
They are getting their support primarily from former non-voters (cf. UKIP), then the FDP, CDU and Left in that order. They aren't damaging the SPD at all. The CDU is partly concerned that their arrival would make a continuation of the current coalition impossible, and partly that they'll lose tactical votes to them as well as the FDP to nudge them over 5%. Consequently there is an anti-AfD barrage from the right. Meanwhile, the attack on Social Democrats and Greens for being willing to ally with the Left at local level is in some disarray after the Hessen debacle.
That said, the current coalition could still pull off a majority. It's a real nail-biter.
Is McBride releasing his memoir as a form of penance or something?
He's doing it for charity.
Honestly.
Think of the children, why won't anyone think of the children?
Royalties from sales of the book will be split between Damian McBride’s current employers, CAFOD (the Catholic Agency for Overseas Development), and the appeal by his former employers, Finchley Catholic High School, to build a new sixth form centre.
I suspect for Ed Miliband, this won't be a helpful contribution.
The book goes on to reveal that while he remained publicly neutral in the Labour leadership contest that followed his defeat in the 2010 election, Mr Brown privately backed Ed Miliband.
He was determined to prevent David Miliband, an arch-Blairite, winning the race and taking the party down routes he had resisted for a decade.
Despite his closeness to Mr Balls, another candidate, he decided to back Ed – and intervened late in the contest when he feared David might win. Mr McBride says Mr Brown marked out Ed Miliband as ‘the one to watch’ in 2007.
From David's post it sounds like UKIP themselves would rather not have had the bother rather than David being frightened off by the local paper. When you consider the dross UKIP are likely to stand in many seats (simply because they will be desperate for candidates) to give up on someone as capable / reasonable as David is a shame.
Hilarious that the scottish tory surger thinks Tiny Blair Cameron's policy of privatising the post office is somehow going to cause a "terrible backlash" against the SNP for opposing unpopular tory stupidity like that and the bedroom tax.
@tpfkar - agreed it's a good result for Labour (it's never bad to gain a seat), but as others have mentioned, the last time the ward was fought, 2012, the Lib Dems came a not-very-good third. Since then, they've had a 3.5% swing from Labour (making the ward an interesting prospect for next May) - and more to the point, in that constituency, a nearly 9% swing from the Tories, who were conspicuous by their complete absence on the ground today. That on top of a succession of by-election and County election gains from the Tories in Oxford West probably means Oxford Lib Dems will be quietly pleased with this one.
I suspect for Ed Miliband, this won't be a helpful contribution.
The book goes on to reveal that while he remained publicly neutral in the Labour leadership contest that followed his defeat in the 2010 election, Mr Brown privately backed Ed Miliband.
He was determined to prevent David Miliband, an arch-Blairite, winning the race and taking the party down routes he had resisted for a decade.
Despite his closeness to Mr Balls, another candidate, he decided to back Ed – and intervened late in the contest when he feared David might win. Mr McBride says Mr Brown marked out Ed Miliband as ‘the one to watch’ in 2007.
More like funds to perpetrate a cult. Scientology but more dangerous for kids...
Despite the McBride book being a lead story in tomorrow's Daily Mail, I can't see any reference to it being serialised in that newspaper as has been rumoured.
Despite the McBride book being a lead story in tomorrow's Daily Mail, I can't see any reference to it being serialised in that newspaper as has been rumoured.
"In the disturbingly candid book, serialised in the Daily Mail, the spin doctor says he routinely discredited opponents by tipping off newspapers about ‘drug use, spousal abuse, alcoholism and extra-marital affairs’. "
Despite the McBride book being a lead story in tomorrow's Daily Mail, I can't see any reference to it being serialised in that newspaper as has been rumoured.
Today, the Mail begins an exclusive serialisation of McBride's memoirs which, incredibly, manage to drag New Labour's reputation to even lower depths.
For the first time, McBride details how he tried to end the political career of anyone who might be considered a vague threat to his boss.
"Start trying to piece the fact from fiction...." Well, I doubt that you will have to much trouble doing this when it comes to John Reid and Ivan Lewis, just google it and read the stories attributed to 'anonymous' briefings at the time. I noted that Southern Observer was trying to discredit the author, and therefore the book before we had even read and digested the contents of it on PB because of McBride's previous fall from grace.
Food for thought, but in this book the details will be openly in the public domain, and he will have to name names and go into a little bit more detail than a Sunday newspaper column which can getaway with 'an unnamed source' briefing a bit of political gossip or comment to them. At the end of the day, I expect that the publishers have had their lawyers crawl through every detail of the book to make sure it will stand up for publication, unlike the details in the email smear campaign scandal that forced McBride to resign and which were never publicly revealed.
The memoir will send shockwaves through the Labour party ahead of next week’s annual conference.
The key revelations it contains include:
Mr McBride helped destroy Home Secretary Charles Clarke by fabricating a briefing war between him and a key adviser to Tony Blair;
Another obstacle to Mr Brown, John Reid, quit the same Cabinet post after Mr McBride leaked details of his alleged ‘drinking, fighting and carousing’;
Allegations about another minister, Ivan Lewis, pestering a female aide were leaked to punish him for criticising Mr Brown’s tax policies;
Mr McBride confesses to logging in to Mr Brown’s office email and leaking details of restricted or confidential documents to discredit opponents;
Mr Brown developed an elaborate ‘political intelligence operation’ with ‘moles’ on the teams of rival ministers;
Shadow foreign secretary Douglas Alexander knifed his own sister Wendy, the Scottish Labour leader, urging her dismissal over a minor donations controversy;
As his premiership faltered, Mr Brown desperately tried to recruit celebrity advisers including Simon Cowell, Lorraine Kelly, Fiona Phillips and Lord Sugar.
@tpfkar ..... Oxford Lib Dems will be quietly pleased with this one.
It's all relative. Compared with Woking on Tuesday and its 39% loss of LD share over 2008, or even the 24% loss of LD share over 2012, couldn't you argue that the LDs would have been quietly pleased with almost any result?
In the immediate aftermath of the fiasco, McBride, operating on orders from Ed Balls, helped deliver the “culprits” who’d given the PM the “wrong advice”. Those then in Downing Street recall McBride discussing who to blame. “We’ll f*** over wee Dougie,” he’s alleged to have said. Douglas Alexander, along with Ed Miliband, were subsequently made to carry the can...
Those claim to have read some of Power Trip claim it deliberately blurs the real chain of command, especially in Number 10. “Damian never took orders from Gordon. It was always through Ed [Balls]. And he knew Gordon would always back him.”
I seemed to remember Eddie Spheroids claiming at the time of smeargate he hardly knew "Mr McBride" as he called him.
"But what gets left out? For another insider this is going to be the best bit. “People will head for the index first and search for ‘China’. There was a time when McBride was with Brown in Beijing and was in the hotel bar for the whole night and entire morning. Wonder if that’ll get a mention?”"
Is tonight the best night of this Parliament for David Cameron?
Last night's YouGov could be dismissed as an outlier but tonight's YouGov on top of yesterday's must imply the true Lab lead is 4% absolute maximum, and it's probably unlikely to be over 3%. Remember (per UKPR) YouGov skews slightly to Lab compared to the average of all pollsters.
Then he also has very good news on keeping UKIP out of the election debates, the prospect of internal warfare breaking out within the Labour Party and all the signs are the tabloids are limbering up to give him absolutely maximum support.
OK, tonight's council by-elections are poor but the overall picture looks very, very encouraging.
The memoir will send shockwaves through the Labour party ahead of next week’s annual conference.
The key revelations it contains include:
Mr McBride helped destroy Home Secretary Charles Clarke by fabricating a briefing war between him and a key adviser to Tony Blair;
Another obstacle to Mr Brown, John Reid, quit the same Cabinet post after Mr McBride leaked details of his alleged ‘drinking, fighting and carousing’;
Allegations about another minister, Ivan Lewis, pestering a female aide were leaked to punish him for criticising Mr Brown’s tax policies;
Mr McBride confesses to logging in to Mr Brown’s office email and leaking details of restricted or confidential documents to discredit opponents;
Mr Brown developed an elaborate ‘political intelligence operation’ with ‘moles’ on the teams of rival ministers;
Shadow foreign secretary Douglas Alexander knifed his own sister Wendy, the Scottish Labour leader, urging her dismissal over a minor donations controversy;
As his premiership faltered, Mr Brown desperately tried to recruit celebrity advisers including Simon Cowell, Lorraine Kelly, Fiona Phillips and Lord Sugar.
I can see why UKIP claim to be against the bedroom tax.
If someone is forced to leave their home because they are considered to have a spare bedroom and if Romanians or Bulgarian take over the tenancy, Nigel Farage is going to have a field day.
In the immediate aftermath of the fiasco, McBride, operating on orders from Ed Balls, helped deliver the “culprits” who’d given the PM the “wrong advice”. Those then in Downing Street recall McBride discussing who to blame. “We’ll f*** over wee Dougie,” he’s alleged to have said. Douglas Alexander, along with Ed Miliband, were subsequently made to carry the can...
Those claim to have read some of Power Trip claim it deliberately blurs the real chain of command, especially in Number 10. “Damian never took orders from Gordon. It was always through Ed [Balls]. And he knew Gordon would always back him.”
I seemed to remember Eddie Spheroids claiming at the time of smeargate he hardly knew "Mr McBride" as he called him.
"But what gets left out? For another insider this is going to be the best bit. “People will head for the index first and search for ‘China’. There was a time when McBride was with Brown in Beijing and was in the hotel bar for the whole night and entire morning. Wonder if that’ll get a mention?”"
In the immediate aftermath of the fiasco, McBride, operating on orders from Ed Balls, helped deliver the “culprits” who’d given the PM the “wrong advice”. Those then in Downing Street recall McBride discussing who to blame. “We’ll f*** over wee Dougie,” he’s alleged to have said. Douglas Alexander, along with Ed Miliband, were subsequently made to carry the can...
Those claim to have read some of Power Trip claim it deliberately blurs the real chain of command, especially in Number 10. “Damian never took orders from Gordon. It was always through Ed [Balls]. And he knew Gordon would always back him.”
I seemed to remember Eddie Spheroids claiming at the time of smeargate he hardly knew "Mr McBride" as he called him.
"But what gets left out? For another insider this is going to be the best bit. “People will head for the index first and search for ‘China’. There was a time when McBride was with Brown in Beijing and was in the hotel bar for the whole night and entire morning. Wonder if that’ll get a mention?”"
Just caught up with Iain Martin's latest blog in the Telegraph - What the hell can the Tories do about Ukip? "'I'm breaking a Max Hastings rule here. He said: never put a question mark on the end of a headline unless the answer is contained in the text below. At the top of this piece I asked what the Tories can do about Ukip. I really don't know."
Well thank god he is just blogging to the faithful UKIPpers in the Telegraph threads, and not anywhere near the Conservative political strategy operation. But ask Iain Martin to give an opinion on when to wear a tie and what colours are suitable, he will always have an opinion. Go figure!!
I am withdrawing from the position of UKIP PPC for Cambridge. My friends on PB will know before everybody else.
The timing of the UKIP conference didn't help---it was deemed important we only had positive stories.
This is the most depressing political thing I've heard all year. I hope you try again next time and don't leave politics to party hacks who have never done anything except plan their run for office.
I am withdrawing from the position of UKIP PPC for Cambridge. My friends on PB will know before everybody else.
The timing of the UKIP conference didn't help---it was deemed important we only had positive stories.
This is the most depressing political thing I've heard all year. I hope you try again next time and don't leave politics to party hacks who have never done anything except plan their run for office.
Sorry Andy, but I was being tongue in cheek with that comment. I simple don't buy this conspiracy theory, and anything that exonerates the press frenzy and their behaviour that night makes me suspicious.
I thought that Ken Clarke was quite effective on the issue of the spare room subsidy when it came to the welfare debate on QuestionTime tonight. Although it might take a wee bit of time for the Labour party and the Libdems to catch up on the irony of their passion for the spare room subsidy which they claim is a bedroom tax. Especially when they are demanding a Mansion tax for owners whose homes fit a current price tag rather than a spare bedrooms criteria....
As Ken Clarke pointed out, why are we the taxpayer paying more housing benefit to those that have spare rooms than those that are in more cramped council accommodation and need extra rooms? But on the other hand, both Labour and the Libdems want to now tax those that own their homes based simple on their value despite the size or occupancy? So we want to give more taxpayers money to those we already support while increasing the tax rate for those that don't, and all at a time when we are trying to rebalance the books and the economy. No wonder Labour are totally incoherent in their message and lack any viable policies right now.
I can see why UKIP claim to be against the bedroom tax.
If someone is forced to leave their home because they are considered to have a spare bedroom and if Romanians or Bulgarian take over the tenancy, Nigel Farage is going to have a field day.
The only major politicians to pass away since 1997 as far as I can see are Robin Cook and Donald Dewar.
Well you could add:-
Alan Clark (who I actually bumped into on the Mall, the day before Diana's funeral) Michael Colvin (a fierce critic of Diana, who died in a suspicious house-fire) Bernie Grant? Eric Forth? Gwyneth Dunwoody?
Remember LD could still easily go with Lab even if Con get most seats.
In 2010, Lab + LD had 315 seats and they at least considered going with Lab. Next time no financial crisis makes it easier to go with Lab and I think if Lab + LD had 320 they would go with Lab. It would be pretty stable - very unlikely all minor parties would vote with Con.
Assume LD get 40 seats and minor parties unchanged. Then Con + Lab = 582.
That means cut-off point is Con 302, Lab 280.
If Lab get 280, LD 40 then that's 320 and that will mean LD go with Lab.
So Con will need 303 to remain in coalition with LD. Assuming Con gain say 8 from LD (LD lose 17 in total) then Con can only lose 12 to Lab.
Remember LD could still easily go with Lab even if Con get most seats.
In 2010, Lab + LD had 315 seats and they at least considered going with Lab. Next time no financial crisis makes it easier to go with Lab and I think if Lab + LD had 320 they would go with Lab. It would be pretty stable - very unlikely all minor parties would vote with Con.
Assume LD get 40 seats and minor parties unchanged. Then Con + Lab = 582.
That means cut-off point is Con 302, Lab 280.
If Lab get 280, LD 40 then that's 320 and that will mean LD go with Lab.
So Con will need 303 to remain in coalition with LD. Assuming Con gain say 8 from LD (LD lose 17 in total) then Con can only lose 12 to Lab.
I thought the LDs usually say votes are more important than seats...
Remember LD could still easily go with Lab even if Con get most seats.
In 2010, Lab + LD had 315 seats and they at least considered going with Lab. Next time no financial crisis makes it easier to go with Lab and I think if Lab + LD had 320 they would go with Lab. It would be pretty stable - very unlikely all minor parties would vote with Con.
Assume LD get 40 seats and minor parties unchanged. Then Con + Lab = 582.
That means cut-off point is Con 302, Lab 280.
If Lab get 280, LD 40 then that's 320 and that will mean LD go with Lab.
So Con will need 303 to remain in coalition with LD. Assuming Con gain say 8 from LD (LD lose 17 in total) then Con can only lose 12 to Lab.
I thought the LDs usually say votes are more important than seats...
I've just taken another bet on a CON-LD coalition at 8/1 with Hills Last week I got 9/1 This is great value
You're right Mike, that's a truly great spot.
The chasm between the odds of 6/4 against the Tories simply winning the most seats and this bet offering 8/1 against them entering into coalition with the LibDems is just totally illogical.
This bet has so much value and even if one isn't confident of such an outcome, at these odds it has great defensive value in terms of enabling the placing of contrary bets between now and the general Election as the likely outcome becomes clearer or not as the case may be!
I can see why UKIP claim to be against the bedroom tax.
If someone is forced to leave their home because they are considered to have a spare bedroom and if Romanians or Bulgarian take over the tenancy, Nigel Farage is going to have a field day.
That's exactly how it'll look on the ground cos of who will make up the majority of empty-nesters at the mo.
It's similar to the way large families work. Large families might go to the front of the queue based on need but what if different groups have a different proportion of large families?
You can travel from London to Birmingham for 25p each way via an Evening Standard offer at the link below on Chiltern Railways. I booked mine for 23 Sept as the weather is supposed to be OK and wouldn't minde a gander at the new central library building
Some councils in northern England and Scotland are finding that 2+ bed properties are hard to let because of the changes to the HB rules. If they cannot get tenants locally, they will be casting their net far and wide to maintain their income stream.
I can see why UKIP claim to be against the bedroom tax.
If someone is forced to leave their home because they are considered to have a spare bedroom and if Romanians or Bulgarian take over the tenancy, Nigel Farage is going to have a field day.
That's exactly how it'll look on the ground cos of who will make up the majority of empty-nesters at the mo.
It's similar to the way large families work. Large families might go to the front of the queue based on need but what if different groups have a different proportion of large families?
I'm sorry to hear about David Kendrick. The issue in question seems to be a very trivial one to stand down over.
Indeed so Sean.
I think the implication is that David has been asked to fall on his sword so as to avoid any embarrassment as the Ukip conference starts.
Perhaps Ukip will allow the situation to blow over, hold the PPC position in abeyance and quietly endorse David in a few months time. I'm not optimistic for him though . Shame.
I'm sorry to hear about David Kendrick. The issue in question seems to be a very trivial one to stand down over.
WRT drugs, I was recently in hospital, and can advise that a morphine injection is one of the most pleasant experiences one can enjoy.
As someone who's always said we need more 'ordinary' people in Westminster instead of career politicians, I utterly agree. I disagreed strongly with his not wanting new housing in the area, but nonetheless it's a shame he's had to go.
However perhaps he should have told UKIP about it before the selection? I could imagine a party being fairly annoyed if a candidate did not mention something so recent. In addition, UKIP obviously did not check the background too well.
Reading up thread about the McBride book is astonishing. I knew Brown and Balls were unpleasant, but if these stories are true then, for all its faults, the Coalition is the best thing to happen in years in British politics. A cabinet of Chums and Cable is far better than allowing any of those malignancies near power again.
Ed Miliband has his faults, but at least he is not Brown. Ed Balls needs to go, he makes Labour unfit for government.
Reading up thread about the McBride book is astonishing. I knew Brown and Balls were unpleasant, but if these stories are true then, for all its faults, the Coalition is the best thing to happen in years in British politics. A cabinet of Chums and Cable is far better than allowing any of those malignancies near power again.
Ed Miliband has his faults, but at least he is not Brown. Ed Balls needs to go, he makes Labour unfit for government.
Be careful, SO will be along to say that everything McBride says is lies. Indeed, I bet the name on the cover's a lie, that there was no such person as Ed Balls, that there was not a Labour government between 1997 and 2010 ...
Or perhaps it should just be admitted that the top of the Brown government was utterly dysfunctional.
Reading up thread about the McBride book is astonishing. I knew Brown and Balls were unpleasant, but if these stories are true then, for all its faults, the Coalition is the best thing to happen in years in British politics. A cabinet of Chums and Cable is far better than allowing any of those malignancies near power again.
Ed Miliband has his faults, but at least he is not Brown. Ed Balls needs to go, he makes Labour unfit for government.
Be careful, SO will be along to say that everything McBride says is lies. Indeed, I bet the name on the cover's a lie, that there was no such person as Ed Balls, that there was not a Labour government between 1997 and 2010 ...
Or perhaps it should just be admitted that the top of the Brown government was utterly dysfunctional.
Actually Josias, I was just about to write that I owe you an apology. The McBride stuff reminds me why I could not vote Labour in 2010. It also makes Ed Balls' position untenable. He must resign or be sacked.
It seems as if the Brown cabinet was worse than merely dysfunctional.
The decapitation of any dissenting voices has led to the situation of today with a lot of second raters in the shadow cabinet, who survived only by turning a blind eye to what was going on.
Reading up thread about the McBride book is astonishing. I knew Brown and Balls were unpleasant, but if these stories are true then, for all its faults, the Coalition is the best thing to happen in years in British politics. A cabinet of Chums and Cable is far better than allowing any of those malignancies near power again.
Ed Miliband has his faults, but at least he is not Brown. Ed Balls needs to go, he makes Labour unfit for government.
Be careful, SO will be along to say that everything McBride says is lies. Indeed, I bet the name on the cover's a lie, that there was no such person as Ed Balls, that there was not a Labour government between 1997 and 2010 ...
Or perhaps it should just be admitted that the top of the Brown government was utterly dysfunctional.
Reading up thread about the McBride book is astonishing. I knew Brown and Balls were unpleasant, but if these stories are true then, for all its faults, the Coalition is the best thing to happen in years in British politics. A cabinet of Chums and Cable is far better than allowing any of those malignancies near power again.
Ed Miliband has his faults, but at least he is not Brown. Ed Balls needs to go, he makes Labour unfit for government.
Be careful, SO will be along to say that everything McBride says is lies. Indeed, I bet the name on the cover's a lie, that there was no such person as Ed Balls, that there was not a Labour government between 1997 and 2010 ...
Or perhaps it should just be admitted that the top of the Brown government was utterly dysfunctional.
Actually Josias, I was just about to write that I owe you an apology. The McBride stuff reminds me why I could not vote Labour in 2010. It also makes Ed Balls' position untenable. He must resign or be sacked.
And I was about to defend you as one of the left leaners here who could see beyond party loyalty in such matters. However, do you not agree that it stretches credulity to believe that Balls is the only Ed who knew what was going on among the inner circle?
Whatever David Kendrick did (and he obviously should've told UKIP about it) it's not a patch on what David Laws did, and that's the hypocrisy in politics that really stinks.
Nice to see you focus on the really big issues of the day!
Whatever David Kendrick did (and he obviously should've told UKIP about it) it's not a patch on what David Laws did, and that's the hypocrisy in politics that really stinks.
Reading up thread about the McBride book is astonishing. I knew Brown and Balls were unpleasant, but if these stories are true then, for all its faults, the Coalition is the best thing to happen in years in British politics. A cabinet of Chums and Cable is far better than allowing any of those malignancies near power again.
Ed Miliband has his faults, but at least he is not Brown. Ed Balls needs to go, he makes Labour unfit for government.
Be careful, SO will be along to say that everything McBride says is lies. Indeed, I bet the name on the cover's a lie, that there was no such person as Ed Balls, that there was not a Labour government between 1997 and 2010 ...
Or perhaps it should just be admitted that the top of the Brown government was utterly dysfunctional.
Actually Josias, I was just about to write that I owe you an apology. The McBride stuff reminds me why I could not vote Labour in 2010. It also makes Ed Balls' position untenable. He must resign or be sacked.
Wow, okay. When I was (ahem) discussing it with you the other day, I had in mind all the other dark things that were going on at the time, and that had coloured my thinking.
The really terrible thing about today's non-revelations (we pretty much could have joined the dots before today's mea culpa) is that it was internal to the Labour Party. McBride resigned when he was proved to have done it against another party: he was untouchable when doing it internally.
The Labour Party really has to ask how this was allowed to happen.
Reading up thread about the McBride book is astonishing. I knew Brown and Balls were unpleasant, but if these stories are true then, for all its faults, the Coalition is the best thing to happen in years in British politics. A cabinet of Chums and Cable is far better than allowing any of those malignancies near power again.
Ed Miliband has his faults, but at least he is not Brown. Ed Balls needs to go, he makes Labour unfit for government.
Be careful, SO will be along to say that everything McBride says is lies. Indeed, I bet the name on the cover's a lie, that there was no such person as Ed Balls, that there was not a Labour government between 1997 and 2010 ...
Or perhaps it should just be admitted that the top of the Brown government was utterly dysfunctional.
Actually Josias, I was just about to write that I owe you an apology. The McBride stuff reminds me why I could not vote Labour in 2010. It also makes Ed Balls' position untenable. He must resign or be sacked.
And I was about to defend you as one of the left leaners here who could see beyond party loyalty in such matters. However, do you not agree that it stretches credulity to believe that Balls is the only Ed who knew what was going on among the inner circle?
It seems to me the entire set-up was utterly dysfunctional. Balls was at the heart of it. I think EdM was much more junior and much more peripheral. I don't doubt he knew that a lot of crap eas taking place, but I'd be surprised if he was a serious part of it. However, he should now be judged on what happens to Balls.
Reading up thread about the McBride book is astonishing. I knew Brown and Balls were unpleasant, but if these stories are true then, for all its faults, the Coalition is the best thing to happen in years in British politics. A cabinet of Chums and Cable is far better than allowing any of those malignancies near power again.
Ed Miliband has his faults, but at least he is not Brown. Ed Balls needs to go, he makes Labour unfit for government.
Be careful, SO will be along to say that everything McBride says is lies. Indeed, I bet the name on the cover's a lie, that there was no such person as Ed Balls, that there was not a Labour government between 1997 and 2010 ...
Or perhaps it should just be admitted that the top of the Brown government was utterly dysfunctional.
Actually Josias, I was just about to write that I owe you an apology. The McBride stuff reminds me why I could not vote Labour in 2010. It also makes Ed Balls' position untenable. He must resign or be sacked.
And I was about to defend you as one of the left leaners here who could see beyond party loyalty in such matters. However, do you not agree that it stretches credulity to believe that Balls is the only Ed who knew what was going on among the inner circle?
It seems to me the entire set-up was utterly dysfunctional. Balls was at the heart of it. I think EdM was much more junior and much more peripheral. I don't doubt he knew that a lot of crap eas taking place, but I'd be surprised if he was a serious part of it. However, he should now be judged on what happens to Balls.
Given MacBride's past I wouldn't rule out this being part of a plan - with Balls as the latest sacrificial lamb - the 'junior' partner now directing events - but maybe I'm just an old cynic.
Comments
.I will stay slightly skeptical of the same till it is reflected by other pollsters.
So today the Syrian Deputy PM suggests that the civil war is at a stalemate and neither side has a decisive capacity to win.
So there it is, official: At the very least, Assad wasn't winning.
So what exactly have the Western media been reporting for the last few months?
Meanwhile insurgent infighting has reached proper levels. ISIS, a direct offshoot of the Iraqi jihadists may have bitten off more than it can chew near the Turkish border with Free Syrian Army threats to take them on if they don't get in line. Ultimately the ISIS forces in the area will lose as the FSA have more firepower and appear to have some assistance from the Turkish military who don't want the jihadists hanging about on their border.
The problem for the Free Syrian Army though is acute, they are effectively having to fight to the rear if conflicts like this spread.
Oxford is less surprising given 2012 result: Lab 33.4 Green 24.9 LD 22.8
Good Night all
From David's post it sounds like UKIP themselves would rather not have had the bother rather than David being frightened off by the local paper. When you consider the dross UKIP are likely to stand in many seats (simply because they will be desperate for candidates) to give up on someone as capable / reasonable as David is a shame.
SMukesh, it's the trend as much as the absolute numbers.
Hopefully his withdrawal helps stops the nasty Labour twit winning.
Their many slogans such as 'project fear' or 'too wee, too poor, too stupid' are equally desperate, and the best free PR for the Better together campaign. Lets face it, the SNP are actually highlighting the very gamble Scots would be taking with Independence far better then their opponents. They are like a second hand car salesman promising yet more State funded goodies with a jovially wink and 'we can afford it because you are worth it'. Only, the more they promise, the more the voters are asking 'can we really afford this with Independence'?
There's currently an extraordinarily wide discrepancy between the best and worst prices available against Man City winning this season's Premier League title - whereas Betfred and the Tote offer a measly 2/1, Betdaq's price is 47% better at 2.945/1, or 4.1 decimal before their commission. This is all the more surprising for what is a major betting market.
Ahead of this weekend's City vs Utd duel which I'm confident the blues will win, and taking advantage of the debacle at Chelsea which I suspect may continue for some time yet, I've taken advantage of what to me looks like a very tasty opportunity and invested £30 with Betdaq to collect a net profit of £88.35 if I'm proved right.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s4oSTyjZCfE
As ever, do your own research.
New poll out from Forsch’gr. Wahlen:
CDU/CSU: 40%
SPD: 27%
Green: 9%
Linke: 8.5%
FDP: 5.5%
AfD: 4%
Others: 6%
http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/index.htm
Greens now averaging below 10%.
Sorry to hear of David Kendrick being forced out, compared to the other reasons various UKIP folks have stood down this seems trivial. He is a gent and whatever his views on the EU, can't help thinking that he can do better than UKIP...you could say better off out
The key revelations it contains include:
Mr McBride helped destroy Home Secretary Charles Clarke by fabricating a briefing war between him and a key adviser to Tony Blair;
Another obstacle to Mr Brown, John Reid, quit the same Cabinet post after Mr McBride leaked details of his alleged ‘drinking, fighting and carousing’;
Allegations about another minister, Ivan Lewis, pestering a female aide were leaked to punish him for criticising Mr Brown’s tax policies;
Mr McBride confesses to logging in to Mr Brown’s office email and leaking details of restricted or confidential documents to discredit opponents;
Mr Brown developed an elaborate ‘political intelligence operation’ with ‘moles’ on the teams of rival ministers;
Shadow foreign secretary Douglas Alexander knifed his own sister Wendy, the Scottish Labour leader, urging her dismissal over a minor donations controversy;
As his premiership faltered, Mr Brown desperately tried to recruit celebrity advisers including Simon Cowell, Lorraine Kelly, Fiona Phillips and Lord Sugar.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2426071/Poison-heart-Labour-Damaging-questions-Miliband-Balls-explosive-book-reveals-Browns-spin-doctor-ran-smear-campaigns-Downing-Street.html
Start trying to piece the fact from fiction....
They are getting their support primarily from former non-voters (cf. UKIP), then the FDP, CDU and Left in that order. They aren't damaging the SPD at all. The CDU is partly concerned that their arrival would make a continuation of the current coalition impossible, and partly that they'll lose tactical votes to them as well as the FDP to nudge them over 5%. Consequently there is an anti-AfD barrage from the right. Meanwhile, the attack on Social Democrats and Greens for being willing to ally with the Left at local level is in some disarray after the Hessen debacle.
That said, the current coalition could still pull off a majority. It's a real nail-biter.
Wtf?
How many 'top UK politicians' have died since 1997? Not many...
Honestly.
Think of the children, why won't anyone think of the children?
Royalties from sales of the book will be split between Damian McBride’s current employers, CAFOD (the Catholic Agency for Overseas Development), and the appeal by his former employers, Finchley Catholic High School, to build a new sixth form centre.
https://www.bitebackpublishing.com/posts/biteback-acquires-the-political-memoir-of-the-year
The book goes on to reveal that while he remained publicly neutral in the Labour leadership contest that followed his defeat in the 2010 election, Mr Brown privately backed Ed Miliband.
He was determined to prevent David Miliband, an arch-Blairite, winning the race and taking the party down routes he had resisted for a decade.
Despite his closeness to Mr Balls, another candidate, he decided to back Ed – and intervened late in the contest when he feared David might win. Mr McBride says Mr Brown marked out Ed Miliband as ‘the one to watch’ in 2007.
Who gets the serialisation money?
Damian McBride deserves some reward for helping out those charities.
::innocent face::
I don't think I'll ever be the same again.
Why can I see myself accidentally purchasing this book
White House hints Obama may meet with Iranian president over sanctions
Obama administration praises 'welcome rhetoric' over nuclear weapons and says meeting is possible next week in New York
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/sep/19/obama-hint-iran-rouhani-meeting
'Blair may have remained PM' without McBride
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2426071/Poison-heart-Labour-Damaging-questions-Miliband-Balls-explosive-book-reveals-Browns-spin-doctor-ran-smear-campaigns-Downing-Street.html
For the first time, McBride details how he tried to end the political career of anyone who might be considered a vague threat to his boss.
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2426112/DAILY-MAIL-COMMENT-How-Labours-lies-spin-poisoned-politics.html#ixzz2fNxTdOMJ
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_Kingdom_by-elections_(1979–present)#1997.E2.80.932001_Parliament
Well, I doubt that you will have to much trouble doing this when it comes to John Reid and Ivan Lewis, just google it and read the stories attributed to 'anonymous' briefings at the time.
I noted that Southern Observer was trying to discredit the author, and therefore the book before we had even read and digested the contents of it on PB because of McBride's previous fall from grace.
Food for thought, but in this book the details will be openly in the public domain, and he will have to name names and go into a little bit more detail than a Sunday newspaper column which can getaway with 'an unnamed source' briefing a bit of political gossip or comment to them. At the end of the day, I expect that the publishers have had their lawyers crawl through every detail of the book to make sure it will stand up for publication, unlike the details in the email smear campaign scandal that forced McBride to resign and which were never publicly revealed.
Those claim to have read some of Power Trip claim it deliberately blurs the real chain of command, especially in Number 10. “Damian never took orders from Gordon. It was always through Ed [Balls]. And he knew Gordon would always back him.”
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/the-mcpoison-papers-confessions-of-rogue-spin-doctor-damian-mcbride-8827726.html
I seemed to remember Eddie Spheroids claiming at the time of smeargate he hardly knew "Mr McBride" as he called him.
"But what gets left out? For another insider this is going to be the best bit. “People will head for the index first and search for ‘China’. There was a time when McBride was with Brown in Beijing and was in the hotel bar for the whole night and entire morning. Wonder if that’ll get a mention?”"
Anybody care to shed any light on this?
Last night's YouGov could be dismissed as an outlier but tonight's YouGov on top of yesterday's must imply the true Lab lead is 4% absolute maximum, and it's probably unlikely to be over 3%. Remember (per UKPR) YouGov skews slightly to Lab compared to the average of all pollsters.
Then he also has very good news on keeping UKIP out of the election debates, the prospect of internal warfare breaking out within the Labour Party and all the signs are the tabloids are limbering up to give him absolutely maximum support.
OK, tonight's council by-elections are poor but the overall picture looks very, very encouraging.
I can see why UKIP claim to be against the bedroom tax.
If someone is forced to leave their home because they are considered to have a spare bedroom and if Romanians or Bulgarian take over the tenancy, Nigel Farage is going to have a field day.
A friend of mine was convinced that John Smith, Diana and Robin Cook were all murdered on the orders of the establishment.
"'I'm breaking a Max Hastings rule here. He said: never put a question mark on the end of a headline unless the answer is contained in the text below. At the top of this piece I asked what the Tories can do about Ukip. I really don't know."
Well thank god he is just blogging to the faithful UKIPpers in the Telegraph threads, and not anywhere near the Conservative political strategy operation. But ask Iain Martin to give an opinion on when to wear a tie and what colours are suitable, he will always have an opinion. Go figure!!
Wow, that is some theory!
Con matched at 2.1.
Is cross-over coming?????
As Ken Clarke pointed out, why are we the taxpayer paying more housing benefit to those that have spare rooms than those that are in more cramped council accommodation and need extra rooms? But on the other hand, both Labour and the Libdems want to now tax those that own their homes based simple on their value despite the size or occupancy? So we want to give more taxpayers money to those we already support while increasing the tax rate for those that don't, and all at a time when we are trying to rebalance the books and the economy. No wonder Labour are totally incoherent in their message and lack any viable policies right now.
Last week I got 9/1
This is great value
Alan Clark (who I actually bumped into on the Mall, the day before Diana's funeral)
Michael Colvin (a fierce critic of Diana, who died in a suspicious house-fire)
Bernie Grant?
Eric Forth?
Gwyneth Dunwoody?
Remember the latest L&N 'prediction' - 60% chance of the Tories being the largest party in a hung parliament...?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=R7cRsfW0Jv8
In 2010, Lab + LD had 315 seats and they at least considered going with Lab. Next time no financial crisis makes it easier to go with Lab and I think if Lab + LD had 320 they would go with Lab. It would be pretty stable - very unlikely all minor parties would vote with Con.
Assume LD get 40 seats and minor parties unchanged. Then Con + Lab = 582.
That means cut-off point is Con 302, Lab 280.
If Lab get 280, LD 40 then that's 320 and that will mean LD go with Lab.
So Con will need 303 to remain in coalition with LD. Assuming Con gain say 8 from LD (LD lose 17 in total) then Con can only lose 12 to Lab.
They entered talks with Lab even though Lab + LD only had 315.
So if they have 320 + no financial crisis + a good offer from Lab (say PR for locals) then I think they are very likely to go for it.
They inherently prefer Lab as:
1) Left wing party
2) They'll much prefer to make it 1-1 rather than 2-0 with Con.
The chasm between the odds of 6/4 against the Tories simply winning the most seats and this bet offering 8/1 against them entering into coalition with the LibDems is just totally illogical.
This bet has so much value and even if one isn't confident of such an outcome, at these odds it has great defensive value in terms of enabling the placing of contrary bets between now and the general Election as the likely outcome becomes clearer or not as the case may be!
It's similar to the way large families work. Large families might go to the front of the queue based on need but what if different groups have a different proportion of large families?
You can travel from London to Birmingham for 25p each way via an Evening Standard offer at the link below on Chiltern Railways. I booked mine for 23 Sept as the weather is supposed to be OK and wouldn't minde a gander at the new central library building
http://www.hotukdeals.com/deals/london-birmingham-return-for-50p-chiltern-railways-1653410#comments
WRT drugs, I was recently in hospital, and can advise that a morphine injection is one of the most pleasant experiences one can enjoy.
Labour VI only:
Is lead by people of real ability:
Cons:4
Lab: 40
LD:2:
None of them:43
DK: 11
Is prepared to take tough and unpopular decisions:
Cons: 35
Lab: 26
LD: 2
None of them: 23
DK: 15
I think the implication is that David has been asked to fall on his sword so as to avoid any embarrassment as the Ukip conference starts.
Perhaps Ukip will allow the situation to blow over, hold the PPC position in abeyance and quietly endorse David in a few months time. I'm not optimistic for him though . Shame.
However perhaps he should have told UKIP about it before the selection? I could imagine a party being fairly annoyed if a candidate did not mention something so recent. In addition, UKIP obviously did not check the background too well.
The Cambridge New's take below:
http://www.cambridge-news.co.uk/Cambridge/UKIP-dumps-Cambridge-candidate-David-Kendrick-after-24-hours-following-betting-scam-revelation-20130920060200.htm
And the BBC's about the case:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/horse-racing/16186624
Sadly, we're heading towards a politics filled with career politicians, along with a few colourful oafs (the Boris 'n Ken show).
Ed Miliband has his faults, but at least he is not Brown. Ed Balls needs to go, he makes Labour unfit for government.
Or perhaps it should just be admitted that the top of the Brown government was utterly dysfunctional.
The decapitation of any dissenting voices has led to the situation of today with a lot of second raters in the shadow cabinet, who survived only by turning a blind eye to what was going on.
What price integrity in the Labour party?
That 8/1 at William Hill looks good.
"What price integrity in the Labour party?"
About 30 pieces of silver I'd say.
The really terrible thing about today's non-revelations (we pretty much could have joined the dots before today's mea culpa) is that it was internal to the Labour Party. McBride resigned when he was proved to have done it against another party: he was untouchable when doing it internally.
The Labour Party really has to ask how this was allowed to happen.