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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview: September 19th 2013

SystemSystem Posts: 12,250
edited September 2013 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview: September 19th 2013

North Ward on Oxford (Lib Dem Defence)
Last Local Election (2012): Lab 29, Lib Dem 13, Green 5, Ind 1 (Lab overall majority of 10)
Last election in ward:
2010: Lib Dem 1,303 (45%), Con 715 (24%), Lab 489 (17%), Green 413 (14%)
Candidates duly nominated: Time Bearder (Lib Dem), Sushila Dhall (Green), Louise Upton (Lab), John Walsh (Con)

Read the full story here


«13

Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,260
    First
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,061
    Good evening, everyone.

    Cheers to Mr. Hayfield for this.

    On drugs: I've taken practically none (Nothing illegal, the only legal one I take a fair amount of is caffeine). Then again, I very rarely drink either.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    FPT:
    MikeK Posts: 1,322

    TwistedFireStopper said:
    » show previous quotes
    I do have a very good reason to want "women and others in full body burqas and niqabs swanning around my local high street"

    Freedom.
    ---------------------------
    No, Twisted. That way lies the road to slavery. You have a funny idea of freedom, I suppose you also support female genital mutilation in the name of freedom?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,061
    Mr. K, I think that's an entirely unfair comparison.

    However, if we're speaking of freedom I must say it's completely indefensible that many of those advocating it for the burkha and niqab did not welcome such freedom for the publication of the Danish cartoons.
  • TwistedFireStopperTwistedFireStopper Posts: 2,538
    MikeK said:

    FPT:
    MikeK Posts: 1,322

    TwistedFireStopper said:
    » show previous quotes
    I do have a very good reason to want "women and others in full body burqas and niqabs swanning around my local high street"

    Freedom.
    ---------------------------
    No, Twisted. That way lies the road to slavery. You have a funny idea of freedom, I suppose you also support female genital mutilation in the name of freedom?


    Obviously not, but you're a bit of a cock, so I guess I could make an exception in your case.

  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Who's on Any Questions tonight? I'm to lazy to look it up.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Sharia Law getting closer by the day in wilfully blind Britain:

    http://www.thenews.com.pk/Todays-News-13-25441-Muslim-women-lose-dignity-in-the-name-of-Halala-in-UK

    Muslim women made to sleep with clerics to get a divorce. Ugh!!!!!!!!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,314
    SeanT said:

    fpt

    Sunil_Prasannan said:
    » show previous quotes
    "If there is one drug I wouldn't mind trying for, ah, "experimental" purposes, it would have to be DMT or ayahuasca."

    I've done DMT. In its purest form. It is utterly astonishing.

    DMT: The Spirit Molecule
    http://rickstrassman.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=61&Itemid=60
  • TwistedFireStopperTwistedFireStopper Posts: 2,538
    SeanT said:

    TwistedFireStopper said:

    MikeK said:

    FPT:
    MikeK Posts: 1,322

    TwistedFireStopper said:
    » show previous quotes
    I do have a very good reason to want "women and others in full body burqas and niqabs swanning around my local high street"

    Freedom.
    ---------------------------
    No, Twisted. That way lies the road to slavery. You have a funny idea of freedom, I suppose you also support female genital mutilation in the name of freedom?


    Obviously not, but you're a bit of a cock, so I guess I could make an exception in your case.

    Freedom for women to be enslaved like medieval chattels, but much, much worse. Centuries of western feminism erased in a day. Well done.

    Laydeez and gennulmem, here is TwistedFireStopper's version of Freedom:


    http://wearburqaday.files.wordpress.com/2011/05/burqa4.jpg
    I saw that on the last thread too. You said it was UKIPs version as well then. You and MikeK make a wonderful couple.

  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,587
    FPT SeanT drug survey response:
    Only alcohol, and I think max was 3 glasses of wine. I occasionally wonder if I've missed anything. Another glass and I might have become a Daily Telegraph columnist, or something. Next life!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,260
    Are discussions about the Burqa the new AV?

    Discuss.

    Perhaps we should have a referendum conducted under AV on banning the Burqa.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,230
    Morris_Dancer said:

    On drugs: I've taken practically none (Nothing illegal, the only legal one I take a fair amount of is caffeine). Then again, I very rarely drink either.

    I also don't drink and the only "drug" I have taken was qat in the Yemen. It was like chewing a privet hedge for four hours. Net effect - bugger all. I can't see us being SeanT's companions of choice for a night out....

    That said, I do have quite a few peyote in my greenhouse.... That might be of interest.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,112
    TheScreamingEagles said:


    Perhaps we should have a referendum conducted under AV on banning the Burqa.

    AV works best with a two option election. ;-)
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,314
    Sunil on Sunday exclusive:

    tim caught in public wearing a burqa - claims it was a "cover up" :)
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    NickPalmer said:

    FPT SeanT drug survey response:
    Only alcohol, and I think max was 3 glasses of wine. I occasionally wonder if I've missed anything. Another glass and I might have become a Daily Telegraph columnist, or something. Next life!

    Nick - are you seriously saying you've never had a mushroom?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,061
    Mr. Mark, indeed, I fear we would not.

    Anyway, I'm off for the night.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,260
    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:


    Perhaps we should have a referendum conducted under AV on banning the Burqa.

    AV works best with a two option election. ;-)
    I think this would be a multi-choice option

    1) No Ban

    2) Complete ban

    3) Force some women to wear, you know the tracksuit wearing, tattooed ladies you see on the Jeremy Kyle show
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,112
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:


    Perhaps we should have a referendum conducted under AV on banning the Burqa.

    AV works best with a two option election. ;-)
    I think this would be a multi-choice option

    1) No Ban

    2) Complete ban

    3) Force some women to wear, you know the tracksuit wearing, tattooed ladies you see on the Jeremy Kyle show
    Careful now, we shouldn't go all devo-max on this! ;-)
  • TwistedFireStopperTwistedFireStopper Posts: 2,538
    I was just writing a witty repost to Sean's claim that I'm a UNIQUELY stupid rancid old f, and then the mods pulled his post. This site is too strict sometimes!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,314
    MikeK said:

    Who's on Any Questions tonight? I'm to lazy to look it up.

    Question Time - AQ is on the radio tomorrow!

    To answer your question: Ken Clarke, Baroness Williams, and Harriet!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,260
    The only drugs I've done are

    1) Alcohol (I'm a terrible Muslim, I know)

    2) Tobacco

    3) Weed, but that was as a passive smoker at a concert when this stoner must have smoked about 600 joints in six hours.
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,090
    I had a blood test last week. Today my doctor said my liver function was marginal. He told me to abstain from alcohol for 4 weeks and then have another test. As I approach three score year and ten would should I do? Abhor the pleasure or live a few more years?
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    Do poppers count? That would take me up to five.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,260
    So no pre-emptive tweets about Tonight's yougov, so that means, back to normal with yougov with Lab leads?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,314
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The only drugs I've done are

    1) Alcohol (I'm a terrible Muslim, I know)

    2) Tobacco

    3) Weed, but that was as a passive smoker at a concert when this stoner must have smoked about 600 joints in six hours.

    Hopefully not a Depeche Mode concert!
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,090
    Sorry - abhor the pleasure AND live a few more years.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,260
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The only drugs I've done are

    1) Alcohol (I'm a terrible Muslim, I know)

    2) Tobacco

    3) Weed, but that was as a passive smoker at a concert when this stoner must have smoked about 600 joints in six hours.

    Hopefully not a Depeche Mode concert!
    Red Hot Chilli Peppers in Hyde Park, June 2004.
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    slade said:

    I had a blood test last week. Today my doctor said my liver function was marginal. He told me to abstain from alcohol for 4 weeks and then have another test. As I approach three score year and ten would should I do? Abhor the pleasure or live a few more years?

    A close call and one doctors never understand.
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,090
    SeanT said:

    slade said:

    I had a blood test last week. Today my doctor said my liver function was marginal. He told me to abstain from alcohol for 4 weeks and then have another test. As I approach three score year and ten would should I do? Abhor the pleasure or live a few more years?

    Drink til you die. As Byron said, "what should I care, that this atom of life should survive?"

    Referring to himself. And he died at 37, so he walked the walk.

    Drink, Sir, Drink!!!
    Over the years I think the pleasure has exceeded the pain - so why change now.

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    It may not be a bad idea to try a month off, if only to allow a proper assessment of your liver. Is the damage reversible? Is the damage from other causes?

    A decision to keep drinking may be better made when the evidence is in, and with a clear head.

    peter_from_putney said:

    slade said:

    I had a blood test last week. Today my doctor said my liver function was marginal. He told me to abstain from alcohol for 4 weeks and then have another test. As I approach three score year and ten would should I do? Abhor the pleasure or live a few more years?

    A close call and one doctors never understand.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The only drugs I've done are

    1) Alcohol (I'm a terrible Muslim, I know)

    2) Tobacco

    3) Weed, but that was as a passive smoker at a concert when this stoner must have smoked about 600 joints in six hours.

    Hopefully not a Depeche Mode concert!
    Red Hot Chilli Peppers in Hyde Park, June 2004.
    I'd need about 600 joints to get through that.

    My most memorable drug experience was medicinal. When I had appendicitis, I was doped to the eyeballs on morphine. Fabulous.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,260
    antifrank said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The only drugs I've done are

    1) Alcohol (I'm a terrible Muslim, I know)

    2) Tobacco

    3) Weed, but that was as a passive smoker at a concert when this stoner must have smoked about 600 joints in six hours.

    Hopefully not a Depeche Mode concert!
    Red Hot Chilli Peppers in Hyde Park, June 2004.
    I'd need about 600 joints to get through that.

    My most memorable drug experience was medicinal. When I had appendicitis, I was doped to the eyeballs on morphine. Fabulous.
    That does it, the next nighthawks will be a Red Hot Chilli Peppers themed one.

    Although if we're counting morphine, morphine rocks.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    FPT

    As an aside, the full burqa is not a religious item (at least not required by the Qu'ran).

    It was very very rare (mainly worn by whack jobs in the desert) until the 19th century, when the Brits occupied Egypt. Being good Liberals they promptly banned the burqa as representing the subjugation of women. Naturally, this lead to nationalists adopting the burqa as a symbol of rejection of Western values...

    It's this history that makes me so nervous about permitting it in the UK. It is, very simply, an expression of 'apartness' and a rejection of everything our society stands for.
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,090
    OK, I've done a deal with the doctor. I am off to the Dominican Republic next week on an all-inclusive. When I return I'll abstain for 4 weeks. Which will I prefer?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @tnewtondunn: YouGov/Sun poll tonight: Labour have a 1 point lead. CON 34%, LAB 35%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 11%. Small Libs conference bounce closes the gap.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,260
    Tom Newton Dunn ‏@tnewtondunn 18s

    YouGov/Sun poll tonight: Labour have a 1 point lead. CON 34%, LAB 35%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 11%. Small Libs conference bounce closes the gap.
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    edited September 2013
    I hated morphine. I asked them to give me something else cos it made me feel odd, in a bad way.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @BreakwellNeil: First revelations from @DPMcBride on Labour as serialised in @MailOnline will be reported on #newsnight tonight
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Stuart_Dickson said:

    it made me feel odd, in a bad way.

    Not like this I hope

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/swedish-court-rules-that-it-is-okay-to-masturbate-in-public-8826589.html
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,260
    edited September 2013
    You Gov monthly average polling, Jan to Sep this year

    Con, 32.41, 31.65, 30.50, 31.19, 29.76, 31.00, 32.43, 32.89, 33.29

    Lab, 42.64, 42.60, 40.95, 40.43, 39.24, 39.05, 38.96, 38.58, 37.79

    LD, 10.59, 10.95, 11.40, 10.71, 10.00, 10.15, 10.22, 9.84, 9..36

    UKIP, 8.73, 9.05, 11.55, 11.62, 14.33, 13.10, 11.78, 11.84, 12.29

    Lab Lead, 10.23, 10.95, 10.45, 9.24, 9.48, 8.05, 6.52, 5.68, 4.50

    So changes from Jan this year to Sep

    Con plus 0.88

    Lab minus 4.85

    LD minus 1.23

    UKIP plus 3.56

    Lab lead minus 5.73
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Oh, yaqona was quite fun too. It made me feel incredibly lucid.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,314
    Scott_P said:

    @tnewtondunn: YouGov/Sun poll tonight: Labour have a 1 point lead. CON 34%, LAB 35%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 11%. Small Libs conference bounce closes the gap.

    YouGov/The Sunil:

    COA 45%
    Lab 35%

    Or if you prefer:

    Lefties 46%
    Tory/UKIP 45%

  • sladeslade Posts: 2,090
    SeanT said:

    slade said:

    SeanT said:

    slade said:

    I had a blood test last week. Today my doctor said my liver function was marginal. He told me to abstain from alcohol for 4 weeks and then have another test. As I approach three score year and ten would should I do? Abhor the pleasure or live a few more years?

    Drink til you die. As Byron said, "what should I care, that this atom of life should survive?"

    Referring to himself. And he died at 37, so he walked the walk.

    Drink, Sir, Drink!!!
    Over the years I think the pleasure has exceeded the pain - so why change now.

    We all live too long anyway. After 80, really, what's the point? Better to go down in a blaze of boooooozy glory (plus heroin, cocaine and cognac - http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/seanthomas/100211496/heroin-for-pensioners-incredibly-some-people-think-its-the-best-solution-to-the-suffering-of-old-age/)

    Doctors, perhaps understandably, treat longevity as the metric that trumps everything. It is absurd. Also liver failure is a much nicer way to die than some others. A close acquaintance of mine was recently diagnosed, in his very early 50s, with Parkinsons MSA.

    Unspeakable. Better to drift away on the lilo of unknowing. Whatever you do, God waits, with a cold, inscrutable smile.
    I have spent most of today watching wasps die in my study. Why do they exist? What do they achieve? There is no God - only the grave.
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    TwistedFireStopper said:

    MikeK said:

    TwistedFireStopper said:

    MikeK said:

    Sweet, Marf. Actually I thought I saw Mr Tyndall under the niqab showing how really libertarian he is. LOL

    I was contemplating getting involved with my local UKIP branch, as I want an alternative to Tory, Labour and Lib Dem.

    You've put me off.
    I cannot for the life of me fathom how little old me put you off going to your local branch, unless you yourself have a reason to want women and others in full body burqas and niqabs swanning around your local high street.

    Tyndall is right in one respect in that UKIP represents various shades of opinion and thats healthy. We are not a party of automations or robots; our councillors have no whip telling them what to say, unlike the Lab/Lib/Cons that are always made to toe the current line, even if it's against their own philosophy.

    So have a go, put your dainty toe in UKIP waters, you'll end up feeling refreshed.
    I do have a very good reason to want "women and others in full body burqas and niqabs swanning around my local high street"

    Freedom.
    The libertarian position would be to ban them completely. I could explain why but i won't till one of the big papers does it first.

    I'm not a libertarian so I wouldn't ban them completely personally but they make a good issue for arguing over the principle that should apply when considering the rights and wrongs of restricting freedom when it comes to clothing, in particular (imo) that it should be considered on a case by case basis dependent on context i.e. court rooms.

    Also useful for trying to force multicultists to state a single principle explicitly rather than let them have one principle in theory but in reality two because they ignore it when it conflicts with the multicult e.g. FGM, gender-based abortion etc.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    A couple of notes on the thread
    Oxford North last contest/result was in 2012 Lab 516 Green 385 LD 353 Con 291
    Canterbury Seasalter , there was a by election in May this year result
    Con 789 UKIP 706 Lab 437 LD 93 TUSC 41
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Abstaining for a month is an interesting exercise in testing whether you are really an addict. I had a six weeks off the internet (apart from work related) one Lent.. It was easier to give up alcohol the next year.

    If you cannot give up for a month then think who is in control of your life, you or your addiction?

    slade said:

    OK, I've done a deal with the doctor. I am off to the Dominican Republic next week on an all-inclusive. When I return I'll abstain for 4 weeks. Which will I prefer?

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Using our host's rule of looking at the share not the lead, Labour's share of 35% will be the most disappointing thing about this poll for the reds.

    Two polls in a row might mark the start of a trend. But let's not get too carried away yet.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,260
    Paywall - Saying the debates might not happen next time around, if UKIP finish first in the Euros, as he'll demand a place in the debates, the Tories if Farage takes part in the debate, it's a redline for them

    "Sky News, which played the leading role in securing the TV debates last time, is expected to take quite a hardline approach to UKIP, advocating that it does not take part.

    The BBC, however, is highly aware of its public service remit and is thought to be more cautious, particularly after the Scottish National Party’s legal challenge in 2010 when the nationalists asked for a court order to force Alex Salmond to take part. Before this year’s local elections, the BBC offered UKIP a party political broadcast, which it was not legally required to do."
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,587
    Charles said:

    FPT

    It's this history that makes me so nervous about permitting it in the UK. It is, very simply, an expression of 'apartness' and a rejection of everything our society stands for.

    As this is about the 4th thread we've had dominated by burqas, I'm planning to give them a rest. But to give a serious reply - I agree that there are reasons for concern: some women might wear burqas because they wish to seem "apart", as you say, and others might wear them due to family pressure. But in both cases the burqa is a symptom, not the problem itself. If someone wishes to be distant from society (and it doesn't seem very British to make that illegal - should we force the shy and unsociable to go to more parties with SeanT?) or subject to family pressure, forcing them to wear different clothes is not going to change either. If you were forbidden by law to wear trousers, would that make you well-disposed to the Government?

    But it seems a bit churlish to go on about it when SeanT has just given me helpful advice downthread. Perhaps I'll have another drink. One has to start somewhere.

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @chrisdeerin: Matt's got it covered @Telegraph http://t.co/Y8xiVI8sGu
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    SeanT said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    You Gov monthly average polling, Jan to Sep this year

    Con, 32.41, 31.65, 30.50, 31.19, 29.76, 31.00, 32.43, 32.89, 33.29

    Lab, 42.64, 42.60, 40.95, 40.43, 39.24, 39.05, 38.96, 38.58, 37.79

    LD, 10.59, 10.95, 11.40, 10.71, 10.00, 10.15, 10.22, 9.84, 9..36

    UKIP, 8.73, 9.05, 11.55, 11.62, 14.33, 13.10, 11.78, 11.84, 12.29

    Lab Lead, 10.23, 10.95, 10.45, 9.24, 9.48, 8.05, 6.52, 5.68, 4.50

    So changes from Jan this year to Sep

    So changes from Jan this year to Sep

    Con plus 0.88

    Lab minus 4.85

    LD minus 1.23

    UKIP plus 3.56

    Lab lead minus 5.73

    More importantly, if UKIP keep screwing up sh1t like the burqa ban, then their votes are there to be harvested.

    Note: British voters are more concerned about immigration than those of almost any other western nation.

    "More Britons see immigration as a problem than do other nationalities, according to a poll of people across Europe and the United States published yesterday.

    "They are also top in believing that there are “too many” immigrants in their country and among the most concerned that immigration threatens the traditional way of life, the poll found. Unhappiness with the way the Government is tackling immigration is also among the highest, despite Home Office efforts to reduce net migration"

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/uk/article3873067.ece

    Cameron can still win, quite easily. The tides are on his side. Indeed, he can still win OUTRIGHT.
    The UK compares favourably in racial tensions terms with, say, France or even Germany though.
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    SeanT said:

    NickPalmer said:

    FPT SeanT drug survey response:
    Only alcohol, and I think max was 3 glasses of wine. I occasionally wonder if I've missed anything. Another glass and I might have become a Daily Telegraph columnist, or something. Next life!

    Once you have lost Broxtowe in 2015 and decide it's time to make up for that tediously diligent youth, and overworked adulthood, I would only recommend three or four drugs:

    LSD: because EVERYONE should do this once. You may find God. You may not. You will be different, afterwards

    Ecstasy: with lots of loud music, and hopefully sex. Or just Wagner and hamster-saving, still great

    Mushrooms: for the giggles, and the good times, unpredictable but oh-so-organically amusing

    Heroin: of course. The Czarina of drugs. A cocoon. The peace that passeth understanding.

    Then good wine.
    I only intended to try LSD once but it's the only one on the list (apart from booze and cigs) i did a lot. Pretty sure it fries the brain though so had to stop after a bit.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Paywall - Saying the debates might not happen next time around, if UKIP finish first in the Euros, as he'll demand a place in the debates, the Tories if Farage takes part in the debate, it's a redline for them

    "Sky News, which played the leading role in securing the TV debates last time, is expected to take quite a hardline approach to UKIP, advocating that it does not take part.

    The BBC, however, is highly aware of its public service remit and is thought to be more cautious, particularly after the Scottish National Party’s legal challenge in 2010 when the nationalists asked for a court order to force Alex Salmond to take part. Before this year’s local elections, the BBC offered UKIP a party political broadcast, which it was not legally required to do."

    If the LDs and Labour think a strong UKIP finish will favour them, perhaps they'll take UKIP's part.

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,314
    SeanT said:

    slade said:

    SeanT said:

    slade said:

    SeanT said:

    slade said:

    I had a blood test last week. Today my doctor said my liver function was marginal. He told me to abstain from alcohol for 4 weeks and then have another test. As I approach three score year and ten would should I do? Abhor the pleasure or live a few more years?

    Drink til you die. As Byron said, "what should I care, that this atom of life should survive?"

    Referring to himself. And he died at 37, so he walked the walk.

    Drink, Sir, Drink!!!
    Over the years I think the pleasure has exceeded the pain - so why change now.

    We all live too long anyway. After 80, really, what's the point? Better to go down in a blaze of boooooozy glory (plus heroin, cocaine and cognac - http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/seanthomas/100211496/heroin-for-pensioners-incredibly-some-people-think-its-the-best-solution-to-the-suffering-of-old-age/)

    Doctors, perhaps understandably, treat longevity as the metric that trumps everything. It is absurd. Also liver failure is a much nicer way to die than some others. A close acquaintance of mine was recently diagnosed, in his very early 50s, with Parkinsons MSA.

    Unspeakable. Better to drift away on the lilo of unknowing. Whatever you do, God waits, with a cold, inscrutable smile.
    I have spent most of today watching wasps die in my study. Why do they exist? What do they achieve? There is no God - only the grave.
    No, there is a God. Really. There is. Trouble is, he's weirdly antisocial.
    DMT - The Spirit Molecule!
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    NickPalmer said:

    Charles said:

    FPT

    It's this history that makes me so nervous about permitting it in the UK. It is, very simply, an expression of 'apartness' and a rejection of everything our society stands for.

    As this is about the 4th thread we've had dominated by burqas, I'm planning to give them a rest. But to give a serious reply - I agree that there are reasons for concern: some women might wear burqas because they wish to seem "apart", as you say, and others might wear them due to family pressure. But in both cases the burqa is a symptom, not the problem itself. If someone wishes to be distant from society (and it doesn't seem very British to make that illegal - should we force the shy and unsociable to go to more parties with SeanT?) or subject to family pressure, forcing them to wear different clothes is not going to change either. If you were forbidden by law to wear trousers, would that make you well-disposed to the Government?

    But it seems a bit churlish to go on about it when SeanT has just given me helpful advice downthread. Perhaps I'll have another drink. One has to start somewhere.

    But I don't think it is a question of being distant. It's a rejection of the values that make Britain the place that it is.

    But we are going to disagree: you (I recall) are a supporter of multi-culturalism. I have no issue with immigration, but believe they should be prepared to integrate into British society rather than create a 'little wherever' here.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    You Gov monthly average polling, Jan to Sep this year

    Con, 32.41, 31.65, 30.50, 31.19, 29.76, 31.00, 32.43, 32.89, 33.29

    Lab, 42.64, 42.60, 40.95, 40.43, 39.24, 39.05, 38.96, 38.58, 37.79

    LD, 10.59, 10.95, 11.40, 10.71, 10.00, 10.15, 10.22, 9.84, 9..36

    UKIP, 8.73, 9.05, 11.55, 11.62, 14.33, 13.10, 11.78, 11.84, 12.29

    Lab Lead, 10.23, 10.95, 10.45, 9.24, 9.48, 8.05, 6.52, 5.68, 4.50

    So changes from Jan this year to Sep

    Con plus 0.88

    Lab minus 4.85

    LD minus 1.23

    UKIP plus 3.56

    Lab lead minus 5.73

    TSE , Yougov did a weighting change for Party ID in July/early August which by their calculations reduced the LD figures by around 0.5-0.7% and increased UKIP figures by the same amount .
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    The Lib Dem candidate in Oxford has a most Lib Dem name.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,314
    I stayed in Four Marks when I did the Watercress Line (Mid Hants Railway) - as well as Portsmouth and the Isle of Wight. Long time ago though, 1997.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,260
    The front of the Daily Mail doesn't look good for Labour or the two Eds

    http://politicshome.com/uk/article/85138/the_daily_mail_friday_20th_september_2013.html
  • david_kendrick1david_kendrick1 Posts: 325
    Disappointing news.

    I am withdrawing from the position of UKIP PPC for Cambridge. My friends on PB will know before everybody else.

    The timing of the UKIP conference didn't help---it was deemed important we only had positive stories.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,260
    david_kendrick1 said:

    Disappointing news.

    I am withdrawing from the position of UKIP PPC for Cambridge. My friends on PB will know before everybody else.

    The timing of the UKIP conference didn't help---it was deemed important we only had positive stories.

    Sorry to hear that.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The front of the Daily Mail doesn't look good for Labour or the two Eds

    http://politicshome.com/uk/article/85138/the_daily_mail_friday_20th_september_2013.html

    @JohnRentoul: Those who've seen @DPMcBride's book say it is superb (we tht it would be from his blog) but it looks OK for EdM http://t.co/rG3A1zYbcd
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,260
    Newsnight covering the McBride book now
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    david_kendrick1 said:

    Disappointing news.

    I am withdrawing from the position of UKIP PPC for Cambridge. My friends on PB will know before everybody else.

    The timing of the UKIP conference didn't help---it was deemed important we only had positive stories.

    Sorry to hear that Mr Kendrick.

  • david_kendrick1david_kendrick1 Posts: 325
    I've had enough today. G'night all.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,090
    Haven't seen this young woman called Lottie Dexter before. She was just on Newsnight talking about jobs for teenagers.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,343
    edited September 2013
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    I stayed in Four Marks when I did the Watercress Line (Mid Hants Railway) - as well as Portsmouth and the Isle of Wight. Long time ago though, 1997.

    It has a brewery Triple fff - very good and had a Champion Beer of Britain in Alton's Pride. The name of the place arose because it grew up at a place where four parishes meet.

  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    david_kendrick1 said:

    Disappointing news.

    I am withdrawing from the position of UKIP PPC for Cambridge. My friends on PB will know before everybody else.

    The timing of the UKIP conference didn't help---it was deemed important we only had positive stories.

    May I ask why you are withdrawing?
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    That's interesting. Sky News seems to be toeing the Tory Party line.
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Paywall - Saying the debates might not happen next time around, if UKIP finish first in the Euros, as he'll demand a place in the debates, the Tories if Farage takes part in the debate, it's a redline for them

    "Sky News, which played the leading role in securing the TV debates last time, is expected to take quite a hardline approach to UKIP, advocating that it does not take part.

    The BBC, however, is highly aware of its public service remit and is thought to be more cautious, particularly after the Scottish National Party’s legal challenge in 2010 when the nationalists asked for a court order to force Alex Salmond to take part. Before this year’s local elections, the BBC offered UKIP a party political broadcast, which it was not legally required to do."

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,260
    edited September 2013
    old_labour said:

    That's interesting. Sky News seems to be toeing the Tory Party line.

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Paywall - Saying the debates might not happen next time around, if UKIP finish first in the Euros, as he'll demand a place in the debates, the Tories if Farage takes part in the debate, it's a redline for them

    "Sky News, which played the leading role in securing the TV debates last time, is expected to take quite a hardline approach to UKIP, advocating that it does not take part.

    The BBC, however, is highly aware of its public service remit and is thought to be more cautious, particularly after the Scottish National Party’s legal challenge in 2010 when the nationalists asked for a court order to force Alex Salmond to take part. Before this year’s local elections, the BBC offered UKIP a party political broadcast, which it was not legally required to do."

    Not really, all three broadcasters are taking the same view.

    If you're including UKIP, why not the Greens, they have an actual MP

    Edit and it's Farage demanding to be in every debate that's scuppering it
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    Sorry to hear that.
    david_kendrick1 said:

    Disappointing news.

    I am withdrawing from the position of UKIP PPC for Cambridge. My friends on PB will know before everybody else.

    The timing of the UKIP conference didn't help---it was deemed important we only had positive stories.

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    I suppose it is his ban from horse racing for alleged insider betting, as per the Cambridge newspaper.

    I personally would not have thought that this requires withdrawal, but all part of the dirty business of politics.

    Best have squeaky clean PPE graduates wet behind the ears it seems. We get the politicians that we deserve with these censorious attitudes.

    MikeK said:

    david_kendrick1 said:

    Disappointing news.

    I am withdrawing from the position of UKIP PPC for Cambridge. My friends on PB will know before everybody else.

    The timing of the UKIP conference didn't help---it was deemed important we only had positive stories.

    May I ask why you are withdrawing?
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The front of the Daily Mail doesn't look good for Labour or the two Eds

    http://politicshome.com/uk/article/85138/the_daily_mail_friday_20th_september_2013.html

    Alastair Campbell and Mandelson will be shocked and appalled at such behaviour.

    LOL
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    23% tunrout in Oxford. 20% in Dudley.
    UKIP Dudley North PPC saying it's close there with Labour just ahead but still counting
  • dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596
    old_labour said:

    That's interesting. Sky News seems to be toeing the Tory Party line.

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Paywall - Saying the debates might not happen next time around, if UKIP finish first in the Euros, as he'll demand a place in the debates, the Tories if Farage takes part in the debate, it's a redline for them

    "Sky News, which played the leading role in securing the TV debates last time, is expected to take quite a hardline approach to UKIP, advocating that it does not take part.

    The BBC, however, is highly aware of its public service remit and is thought to be more cautious, particularly after the Scottish National Party’s legal challenge in 2010 when the nationalists asked for a court order to force Alex Salmond to take part. Before this year’s local elections, the BBC offered UKIP a party political broadcast, which it was not legally required to do."

    Think they should just hold a debate anyway. If the tories are too frit to turn up and argue for their policies, tough.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    This sounds like some politicians.
  • dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596
    Mick_Pork said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The front of the Daily Mail doesn't look good for Labour or the two Eds

    http://politicshome.com/uk/article/85138/the_daily_mail_friday_20th_september_2013.html

    Alastair Campbell and Mandelson will be shocked and appalled at such behaviour.

    LOL
    Campbell was moaning on twitter about how he would never make money from something so immoral (my paraphrase).

    Brass neck is the popular phrase that comes to mind
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,735
    What is the point of politics if people like Mr Kendrick are forced out of running for office? I had a meeting yesterday with someone who had held a minor post in the first term Obama administration. He said the screening process he went through was unbelievably intrusive and that many really good people just would not subject themselves to it. Thus, we all too often end up with mediocrities merely because they don't care about laying their lives open to strangers and/or because they have never made a mistake - not even an unwitting one - and so have missed out on fundamental life experiences.

    I don't share your politics David, but I don't doubt you are a good man who wants to do his bit. UKIP is much the poorer this evening. You'll bounce back soon enough.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    edited September 2013
    MikeK said:

    david_kendrick1 said:

    Disappointing news.

    I am withdrawing from the position of UKIP PPC for Cambridge. My friends on PB will know before everybody else.

    The timing of the UKIP conference didn't help---it was deemed important we only had positive stories.

    May I ask why you are withdrawing?
    Sounds like he has been ordered to (there was a fairly inconsequential story in the local press about a betting thing)
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,260
    SouthamObserver said:

    What is the point of politics if people like Mr Kendrick are forced out of running for office? I had a meeting yesterday with someone who had held a minor post in the first term Obama administration. He said the screening process he went through was unbelievably intrusive and that many really good people just would not subject themselves to it. Thus, we all too often end up with mediocrities merely because they don't care about laying their lives open to strangers and/or because they have never made a mistake - not even an unwitting one - and so have missed out on fundamental life experiences.

    I don't share your politics David, but I don't doubt you are a good man who wants to do his bit. UKIP is much the poorer this evening. You'll bounce back soon enough.

    Well said
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,314
    Sorry to see Mr Kendrick's withdrawal from PPC.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,090
    Has tonight's YouGov been reported yet?

    Lab 35%
    Con 34%
    LD 11%
    UKIP 11%
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,314
    Andy_JS said:

    Has tonight's YouGov been reported yet?

    Lab 35%
    Con 34%
    LD 11%
    UKIP 11%

    Yes it has!
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited September 2013
    SouthamObserver said:

    What is the point of politics if people like Mr Kendrick are forced out of running for office? I had a meeting yesterday with someone who had held a minor post in the first term Obama administration. He said the screening process he went through was unbelievably intrusive and that many really good people just would not subject themselves to it. Thus, we all too often end up with mediocrities merely because they don't care about laying their lives open to strangers and/or because they have never made a mistake - not even an unwitting one - and so have missed out on fundamental life experiences.

    I don't share your politics David, but I don't doubt you are a good man who wants to do his bit. UKIP is much the poorer this evening. You'll bounce back soon enough.

    Come now. You wouldn't want any tom, dick or harry to be allowed to wallow in massive expenses scandals or vote for idiocy like Iraq. These rigorous screening procedures have made MPs and politicians the respected and well loved figures they are today for the public.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    I'm not predicting a win necessarily as Green wins in by-elections are extremely rare but I wouldnt be shocked if there was a good result in Oxford.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Labour wins in Dudley

    Labour gain in Oxford by 37 votes.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    edited September 2013
    Neil said:

    I'm not predicting a win necessarily as Green wins in by-elections are extremely rare but I wouldnt be shocked if there was a good result in Oxford.

    Andrea's timing was exquisite ;-)
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    Has nobody told the good people of Oxford about the YouGov poll?

    To be fair, there could be local stuff that none of us knows about.
    AndreaParma_82 said:

    Labour wins in Dudley

    Labour gain in Oxford by 37 votes.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,260
    Neil said:

    I'm not predicting a win necessarily as Green wins in by-elections are extremely rare but I wouldnt be shocked if there was a good result in Oxford.

    You win tonight's Rogerdarmus award.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    It's LD second in Oxford, apparently
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    @TSE

    Who came second?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,260
    edited September 2013
    Neil said:

    @TSE

    Who came second?

    Not me, I've never come sec...

    Oh wait you were talking about the by-election
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Oxford

    Lab 367 Lib Dem 330 Green Party 236 Con 100
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,090
    UKIP gain from Tory in Canterbury.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited September 2013
    Canterbury Seasalter

    UKIP 644
    Con 522
    Lab 307
    Lib Dem 147
    Green 54

    UKIP gain from Con

  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    edited September 2013
    Well I've been working on better understanding the margin of error in YouGov polling and have reached at least some indication of what it is.

    So the idea was to see by how much a poll varied from the average of the two polls before and the two polls after it. (The error here is any variance between polls, which will include the sampling error which is mathematically calcuable but also other sorts of error.)

    http://img593.imageshack.us/img593/9607/xvlw.png

    As I hope you can see the 95% confidence level is just under four; in fact, it lies in the 3.75 band. Thus we can be reasonably certain (95%) that the five-day polling average of which the middle poll was zero is going to be no more than 3%. (Being four polls averaging 3.75 and one at zero.) Adopting a 99% interval gives 3.6%, being four polls at 4.5 and one at zero.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    @Andrea

    So I dont have to feel guilty about not responding to the emails asking people to canvass in Oxford ;)
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    Profile and boundaries of North Ward.

    http://openlylocal.com/wards/7891-North
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Dudley

    Lab 1053
    UKIP 478
    Con 190
    BNP 120
    Green 33
    NF 16
    Spoilt 6

    Not particularly close afterall
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,090
    In tonight's YouGov Labour is up by just 5 percentage points from GE2010. They're clearly winning droves of former LD voters but must be losing a lot elsewhere — otherwise they'd be up by more than 5 pp.
This discussion has been closed.