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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Alastair Meeks looks ahead to next month’s local elections
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As is often the case, the public perception of the result matters a great deal. Corbyn lost the 2017 GE, but was seen as a winner by many because his defeat was not as big as expected.
So what is the current mood music? If the Conservatives don't get 'wiped out' in London, will that be signalled as a success? What about Labour and the Lib Dems? What are their expectations?
Note: this is separate from Alastair's excellent analysis. Expectations are not always based solely on hard, logical reasoning, but also on hope.
There’s some evidence, is there not, that many Kippers were previously non-voters; have they changed their habits, and will vote this time, or will tey go back to their old ways?
Very interesting.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-43769408
In summary, NEVs of 38-40% for both Con and Lab, 15-17% for LDs. Cons gain 75 seats (mostly outside London), Lab gain 50 (mostly in London), LibDems gain 40 (mostly in South West London...). UKIP loses 165.
Can anybody tell me what the y axis is?
(Clue: anyone who reads my posts on here knows this is one of my areas of knowledge.)
As mentioned by me a couple of days ago.
Hmmm..... might the same guidance be used to withdraw British citizenship?
The y-axis is fossil fuels used in UK electricity consumption (in BTUs).
There are three separate factors affecting it:
1. Overall energy consumption is falling thanks to tougher efficiency standards.
2. Natural gas is a much more efficient fuel to generate electricty from. (It takes fewer BTUs of methane than of coal to produce a KW of electricty.)
3. Renewables are replacing fossil fuels.
Do you personally support or oppose the launching of military strikes against Syria by the UK?
Support 36%
Oppose 40%
Don’t know 24%
Theresa May had obtained cabinet support for "the need to take action" in Syria. Which of the following is closest to your view?
Theresa May should have held a parliamentary debate and vote before intervening militarily in Syria 54%
Theresa May should not have held a parliamentary debate and vote before intervening militarily in Syria 30%
Don’t know 17%
Theresa May did not seek a parliamentary vote before intervening militarily in Syria. Which of the following is closest to your view?
I trust Theresa May to make the right decision 39%
I do not trust Theresa May to make the right decision 43%
Don’t know 17%
Which of the following do you trust the most to make the right decision regarding Syria?
MPs as a collective 51%
Theresa May 27%
Don’t know 22%
CON: 40% (+3)
LAB: 40% (-4)
LDEM: 9% (-)
UKIP: 3% (-)
GRN: 1% (-1)
How well or badly do you think Theresa May has handled the situation in Syria so far?
Very well 12%
Quite well 24%
Neither well nor badly 28%
Quite badly 15%
Very badly 13%
Don’t know 7%
How well or badly do you think Jeremy Corbyn has handled the situation in Syria so far?
Very well 5%
Quite well 13%
Neither well nor badly 31%
Quite badly 16%
Very badly 20%
Don’t know 14%
Which party leader do you trust the most to handle international crises?
Theresa May 46%
Jeremy Corbyn 25%
Don’t know 29%
Which party leader do you trust the most to make decisions on military matters?
Theresa May 46%
Jeremy Corbyn 26%
Don’t know 28%
If you are merely related to a bad guy and have a job in London, it seems that you are getting dangerously close to holding people responsible for their relatives actions.
Which of these Prime Ministers would you trust the most to handle potential military conflict?
Theresa May 12%
David Cameron 10%
Gordon Brown 7%
Tony Blair 7%
John Major 5%
Margaret Thatcher 30%
Don’t know 28%
Which of the following do you think is the bigger factor influencing Theresa May’s desire to take military action against Syria?
Genuine concern for the victims of chemical weapons attacks 47%
Desire to improve her status as a strong leader on the world stage 38%
Don’t know 15%
Which of the following do you think is the bigger factor influencing Jeremy Corbyn’s decision to oppose military action against Syria?
Genuine belief that military action was not justified and/or would make things worse 40%
Political opportunism in trying to damage the government 40%
Don’t know 20%
Do you personally support or oppose the launching of further military strikes against Syria by the UK?
Support 30%
Oppose 45%
Don't know 25%
Which of the following is closest to your view?
The UK should only take part in further raids on Syria with the approval of Parliament 61%
The UK should take part in further raids on Syria regardless of the approval of Parliament 20%
Don't know 18%
We may well learn more to our advantage than just chucking them out.
But it is really worrying that you assume there must be wrongdoing just because their father is a wrong'un. You might be right - in fact, I think you probably are, although I could not tell you the scale - but there has to be a proper and fair process.
(*) If there is not such legislation, some should probably be created quickly. International agreement might also help here.
Tomorrow Mrs May will have an uncomfortable ride in the Commons on that failure and rightly so. She is gaining a deserved reputation for avoiding important set piece political theatre. It cost her at the general election and will hamper her position tomorrow.
The UK consumed 212,310,000 TOE (tonnes of oil equivalent) of energy (DUKES).
Multiply TOE by 11630 (as defined by DUKES) to produce 2,469,165,300,000 kWh
The population at the time was around 62.3 million so 39,633kWh per person per year.
Divided by 365 this produces 109kWh energy consumption per person, per day.
The same DUKES reported that UK electricity consumption was 374,343,000,000
Hence just 15.16% of the UK's energy was consumed as electricity during 2011.
In 2011, wind power accounted for 12,675,000,000 kWh of that electricity, or 3.39%
Wind therefore accounted for 0.51% of the UK's 2011 energy consumption.
https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/digest-of-uk-energy-statistics-dukes
Great race though.
Besides which when the marriage took place Bashar Al Assad was a respectable opthalmologist in West London.
Stand by for petulant #BrexitBroadcastingCorporation tweets when the BBC doesn't give this bunch of sore losers wall-to-wall coverage for the next week.
F1: well, that was a race. No spoilers, but if you only watch casually this is one race for which you'll want to see the highlights.
I believe most of your bets came off, no?
That said, as you say, few vote on foreign policy!
On topic, I expect the locals to be a bit meh, with something for everyone except UKIP.
Anyway, the vulgar matter of money aside, fantastic race.
I have a "feel-good" plug-in SUV for almost 6 months. Apart from making me feel good [ and lower personal taxes but higher fuel costs to my employer ], it is the biggest disappointment.
Since my house is about 6 miles from work, I just about manage it with one charge in winter. So I fill in with petrol about once a month unless I drive on the motorway.
Efficient batteries will change the dynamics. No engine, no gearbox, very small fuel tank [ if at all ]. Just four motors and many, many, batteries.
Honestly it is the worse thing an Aussie sportsman has done this year, even worse than Smith, Warner, and Bancroft.
That says it all
I am looking at getting the Hyundai Ioniq plug in hybrid, but not for another year or two.
My jezza to go in 18 bets not looking as good. Tracey crouch like the tiger just staying in the pack of riders for now before making her move. Come on those Barnet tories !!
Edited extra bit: writing the post-race ramble. Should be up this morning.
It doesn't simply mean a Russian veto on UK foreign policy. It means China has one too.
Corbyn: Had the nerve to point out that chlorine has other uses. To be fair to Marr, he's asking all the questions we've asked on here. He asked Corbyn what he'd do if due process was followed and Corbyn just said we should confront Assad "or anyone else who may be blamed" and get them to destroy the stocks as was done in 2013 and 2015. Yeah, 'cos they really were all destroyed.
He is just a disgrace
George Smiley would have had him in the clink within weeks.
He'll be accused of playing into the Kremlin's hands again.... @MarrShow
Corbyn remains an utter cock.
Mr. P, be fair. Corbyn probably hasn't been shown the evidence. It'd be simpler just to tell Putin directly, after all.
And a question to those labour supporters on here - are you really prepared to put up with this dangerous old fool
https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/985434260868878336