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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » So who wants to be the British Emmanuel Macron? There’s £50 mi

SystemSystem Posts: 12,256
edited April 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » So who wants to be the British Emmanuel Macron? There’s £50 million worth of support waiting for you

Tomorrow’s Observer…

Read the full story here


«134

Comments

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,135
    First, like the Tories :smiley:
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Here is the source table for the rainy city table. Cardiff is wettest.
    https://www.freeflush.co.uk/blogs/freeflush-rainwater-harvesting-blog/revealed-the-wettest-cities-in-the-uk
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    RobD said:

    First, like the Tories :smiley:

    I'm a victim of Tory gerrymandering: Vanilla ate my comment.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,510
    4th, like any new party will be.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,135
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    Here is the source table for the rainy city table. Cardiff is wettest.
    https://www.freeflush.co.uk/blogs/freeflush-rainwater-harvesting-blog/revealed-the-wettest-cities-in-the-uk

    That looks like a map of all cities in the UK. :p
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,510
    RobD said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    Here is the source table for the rainy city table. Cardiff is wettest.
    https://www.freeflush.co.uk/blogs/freeflush-rainwater-harvesting-blog/revealed-the-wettest-cities-in-the-uk

    That looks like a map of all cities in the UK. :p
    What’s this “rain”, of which you speak?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,812
    Chris Huhne? "Come on down, the Pryce is right."
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    edited April 2018
    Sandpit said:

    4th, like any new party will be.

    You have more faith in 'new party' than I do!

    In regards to the article and a new party.

    If they are anti Brexit centrists I can't see why Lib Dems seats would fall to them, I think for some the idea is the Lib Dems would join or at least they wouldn't compete with each other, so why compete with the Lib Dems and if so why swap Lib Dem MP for new party MP?

    It also doesn't seem likely that safe Conservative or safe Labour seats would fall to a new party. Too much ground to make up and an attachment to the party holding the seat already.

    Scotland just seems too crowded for anyone else to make a break through, not that England and Wales aren't but with the SNP and the independence issue on top I struggle to see even a new party that somehow starts making strides elsewhere breaking in.

    That would presumably leave the main hunting ground as marginal seats where the Lib Dems aren't holding the seat or aren't the party in second place. Which can't leave a huge amount of potential seats before we even get into how difficult taking these seats will be.

    The SDP was a long time ago now but looking to the much more recent past UKIP's experiences are very telling. Despite winning millions of votes without having any kind of strong regional base they couldn't in the end win any seats and only held the 1 that defected to them.

    The media wasn't necessarily crying out for a UKIP style party, not as much as they do a centrist party now but there were much more favourable conditions for a UKIP style party to flourish back then and they could not actually breakthrough.

    There is something of a counter argument about them actually achieving their main aim and I would concede that a couple of decades (ish) after being formed and winning millions of votes in a couple of general elections they did bring about change. I'm just not sure that a new party will do as well as even them.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,905
    Ed Miliband, what did you do?

    "Syria war: At least 70 reported dead in suspected gas attack"

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-43686157
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    More Tory astroturfing:

    Half of the electorate believes that there are at least pockets of antisemitism in the Labour party, according to a poll.

    A third (34%) of voters also believe that Jeremy Corbyn is among those in the party who hold antisemitic views, despite his repeated denials and pledge to be a “militant opponent” of the problem.

    https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/2018/apr/08/labour-antisemitism-opinion-poll?__twitter_impression=true
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
    JosiasJessop said:

    Ed Miliband, what did you do?

    "Syria war: At least 70 reported dead in suspected gas attack"

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-43686157

    People on American sites are pointing out Trump recently met with Putin alone in his office and shortly after Trump was extremely keen to pull out of Syria.
  • nielhnielh Posts: 1,307
    I can think of better ways of spending £50 million.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,286
    As I said in the previous thread, our political system doesn't lend itself to political movements driven entirely by personality.
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
    I wonder if Jeremy Corbyn will condemn this attack as strongly as he condemned the recent attack on Palestinians? Or will he need an investigation as it could have been the Jews?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,510
    edited April 2018
    IanB2 said:

    As I said in the previous thread, our political system doesn't lend itself to political movements driven entirely by personality.

    The only recent examples are probably Farage, and possibly Blair before him. What definitively wouldn’t work for a new party is a bunch of retread senior politicians from other parties - enough people loathe the lot of them. They will need some new faces who have positive ideas and a coherent platform, rather than defining themselves purely by what they are against.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,062
    CarlottaVance said:

    More Tory astroturfing:

    Half of the electorate believes that there are at least pockets of antisemitism in the Labour party, according to a poll.

    A third (34%) of voters also believe that Jeremy Corbyn is among those in the party who hold antisemitic views, despite his repeated denials and pledge to be a “militant opponent” of the problem.

    https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/2018/apr/08/labour-antisemitism-opinion-poll?__twitter_impression=true

    Any other result would be surprising considering Jezza himself accused his own party. He really is a naive leader. Even Gerald Ratner when damning his own company didn't expect it to be made public
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,510
    So the Metropolitan Police have £240m sitting in the bank, and it took 55 deaths since the start of the year before they realised they needed a task force to sort out the gang problem?
    https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/982723842786328577
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,855
    Elliot said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Ed Miliband, what did you do?

    "Syria war: At least 70 reported dead in suspected gas attack"

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-43686157

    People on American sites are pointing out Trump recently met with Putin alone in his office and shortly after Trump was extremely keen to pull out of Syria.
    When was this?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    The Jacobite Party (Auchentennach Branch) will be pleased to receive proposals for consideration in return for a modest injection of funds of £50m.

    I thank you.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,855
    nielh said:

    I can think of better ways of spending £50 million.

    Blackjack?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,510
    Very interesting front page of the Times. I mentioned a couple of days ago on here that there must be a lot of high-level multi-agency talks going on about what to do with the Skripals, now that they’re looking likely to survive the attack on their lives.
    https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/982720195948097537
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,864
    rcs1000 said:

    Elliot said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Ed Miliband, what did you do?

    "Syria war: At least 70 reported dead in suspected gas attack"

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-43686157

    People on American sites are pointing out Trump recently met with Putin alone in his office and shortly after Trump was extremely keen to pull out of Syria.
    When was this?
    Fake news!
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,905
    JackW said:

    The Jacobite Party (Auchentennach Branch) will be pleased to receive proposals for consideration in return for a modest injection of funds of £50m.

    I thank you.

    I bet SeanT could organise one heck of a party for £50 million ...
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,510
    Elliot said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Ed Miliband, what did you do?

    "Syria war: At least 70 reported dead in suspected gas attack"

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-43686157

    People on American sites are pointing out Trump recently met with Putin alone in his office and shortly after Trump was extremely keen to pull out of Syria.
    Neither Trump nor Putin have travelled to each other’s countries since Trump has been President, so either that story’s bollox or they’re really good at travelling incognito! They did meet at the G20 summit last June in Hamburg Germany.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,864
    edited April 2018
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    Here is the source table for the rainy city table. Cardiff is wettest.
    https://www.freeflush.co.uk/blogs/freeflush-rainwater-harvesting-blog/revealed-the-wettest-cities-in-the-uk

    Surprised Derry’s so low. Perhaps the rain only falls on the Catholic bit? Or Protestant, depending on preference!
  • GadflyGadfly Posts: 1,193
    edited April 2018
    What are these mm that Manchester measures its rain by?

    Up here we use proper metres, and my valley sees 2 1/2 of these per year.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,135
    JackW said:

    The Jacobite Party (Auchentennach Branch) will be pleased to receive proposals for consideration in return for a modest injection of funds of £50m.

    I thank you.

    That'll (just about) pay for the good Lady's hats...
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    JosiasJessop said:

    JackW said:

    The Jacobite Party (Auchentennach Branch) will be pleased to receive proposals for consideration in return for a modest injection of funds of £50m.

    I thank you.

    I bet SeanT could organise one heck of a party for £50 million ...
    Even this Conservative government could organize a suitable event within a large libation producer with £50m in hand ... well probably !!
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    RobD said:

    JackW said:

    The Jacobite Party (Auchentennach Branch) will be pleased to receive proposals for consideration in return for a modest injection of funds of £50m.

    I thank you.

    That'll (just about) pay for the good Lady's hats...
    I wish .... :sunglasses:
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,510
    JosiasJessop said:

    JackW said:

    The Jacobite Party (Auchentennach Branch) will be pleased to receive proposals for consideration in return for a modest injection of funds of £50m.

    I thank you.

    I bet SeanT could organise one heck of a party for £50 million ...
    Next PB party - rent an island in the Caribbean, unlimited coke and hookers, free casino and a sports book with a couple of dozen TV screens. The £50m should last a few months at least...
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,069
    Good morning, everyone.

    An interesting story, though it is in The Observer [where the fake news of Conservatives apparently not believing animals could be sentient, causing quite the Twitter storm, came from].

    Distribution of resources would be critical. Not merely in the tactical "can we win seats?" sense, but, perhaps more importantly, in avoiding the appearance of being an anti-Conservative or anti-Labour party. If it looks like the Ralph Nader Party, that could be less than helpful for its prospects.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,864
    JackW said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    JackW said:

    The Jacobite Party (Auchentennach Branch) will be pleased to receive proposals for consideration in return for a modest injection of funds of £50m.

    I thank you.

    I bet SeanT could organise one heck of a party for £50 million ...
    Even this Conservative government could organize a suitable event within a large libation producer with £50m in hand ... well probably !!
    I thought it did already!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,069
    F1: browsing the markets. Ladbrokes has a Betting Without Ferrari market which could be interesting.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    SNP 36%-5
    CON 27%+1
    LAB 26%+3
    LD 6%=
    GRN 2%=
    Comparisons with last September

    Sunday Times Panelbase .

    Looks like the Scottish Tories holding up rather well.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    For the love of God will anyone shut Boris up?

    His analysis of Corbyn may even be fully justified, but let other people say it. The British foreign secretary should be concentrating on his job, not trying to score party political points. It is surely in the interests of the U.K. to play down internal political opposition to their Russia stance not big it up.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,253
    JackW said:

    The Jacobite Party (Auchentennach Branch) will be pleased to receive proposals for consideration in return for a modest injection of funds of £50m.

    I thank you.

    You'll have to fight Tony Blair for that £50m first.....
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,286
    A party that offered radical but credible changes to our economic, financial and political systems to address the iniquity and failings of current state capitalism might get some traction, particularly with working age voters. This is of course why Corbyn is doing so well in the first place, by willing similar ends but without credible means.

    But where and by whom is any such thinking being done?

    The Observer story is money before tactics before strategy before purpose; three carts before one horse. Insofar as it is possible to tell, the floated new outfit looks dangerously like a 'status quo party' (not Brexit, not Corbyn..), at a time when confidence in the status quo is remarkably low; even a small-c conservative like Mrs May is forced to at least speak about how things need to change.

    Indeed isn't this the same hole the LibDems have already fallen into, being seen as principally defending the current settlement at the worst possible time?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,062
    alex. said:

    For the love of God will anyone shut Boris up?

    His analysis of Corbyn may even be fully justified, but let other people say it. The British foreign secretary should be concentrating on his job, not trying to score party political points. It is surely in the interests of the U.K. to play down internal political opposition to their Russia stance not big it up.

    The Times headline "Corbyn is Kremlin's Useful Idiot' by Boris Johnson made me smile. You'd rather hope Boris would have the nous to avoid the word 'idiot' next to a photo of himself
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,510
    Morris_Dancer said:

    F1: browsing the markets. Ladbrokes has a Betting Without Ferrari market which could be interesting.

    Ooh, that could be fun. Bottas favourite I’d say, with an almighty fight behind him.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,759
    Roger said:

    alex. said:

    For the love of God will anyone shut Boris up?

    His analysis of Corbyn may even be fully justified, but let other people say it. The British foreign secretary should be concentrating on his job, not trying to score party political points. It is surely in the interests of the U.K. to play down internal political opposition to their Russia stance not big it up.

    The Times headline "Corbyn is Kremlin's Useful Idiot' by Boris Johnson made me smile. You'd rather hope Boris would have the nous to avoid the word 'idiot' next to a photo of himself
    This Russian crisis has put Boris in an unsackable position; and boy does he know it.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,069
    Mr. Sandpit, interesting. I'd say Ricciardo.

    Another interesting thing is that in the last four races at Bahrain, only once has the chap on pole won it. [I expect that to become two in five, but it's a bit surprising].
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,864
    alex. said:

    For the love of God will anyone shut Boris up?

    His analysis of Corbyn may even be fully justified, but let other people say it. The British foreign secretary should be concentrating on his job, not trying to score party political points. It is surely in the interests of the U.K. to play down internal political opposition to their Russia stance not big it up.

    How has Johnson NOT 'seriously misrepresented what he was told by Porton Down chemical weapons experts’?.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    A new party needs a credo before it needs cash. Otherwise this is just Brewster’s Millions in real life.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    alex. said:

    For the love of God will anyone shut Boris up?

    His analysis of Corbyn may even be fully justified, but let other people say it. The British foreign secretary should be concentrating on his job, not trying to score party political points. It is surely in the interests of the U.K. to play down internal political opposition to their Russia stance not big it up.

    +1

    Deltapoll also looked at the popularity of leading politicians. Corbyn scored a net approval rating of -27, with the prime minister, Theresa May, on -6. She had better ratings than her cabinet team, with the chancellor Philip Hammond on -10, Brexit secretary David Davis on -22, and foreign secretary Boris Johnson on -26.

    At the bottom of the pile came Vince Cable. With the Lib Dems still struggling to make an impact, its leader has a net approval rating of -29

    Corbyn tied with Johnson.....sounds about right.....
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Jonathan said:

    Roger said:

    alex. said:

    For the love of God will anyone shut Boris up?

    His analysis of Corbyn may even be fully justified, but let other people say it. The British foreign secretary should be concentrating on his job, not trying to score party political points. It is surely in the interests of the U.K. to play down internal political opposition to their Russia stance not big it up.

    The Times headline "Corbyn is Kremlin's Useful Idiot' by Boris Johnson made me smile. You'd rather hope Boris would have the nous to avoid the word 'idiot' next to a photo of himself
    This Russian crisis has put Boris in an unsackable position; and boy does he know it.
    The Labour antisemitism row rules Boris out as leader and strengthens May's hand in getting rid of him without triggering a leadership challenge. All of Boris's Conservative enemies and rivals will have been taking notes.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,253
    felix said:

    SNP 36%-5
    CON 27%+1
    LAB 26%+3
    LD 6%=
    GRN 2%=
    Comparisons with last September

    Sunday Times Panelbase .

    Looks like the Scottish Tories holding up rather well.

    June 2017 reult was

    SNP 36.9%
    Con 28.6%
    Lab 27.1%
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,062
    Jonathan said:

    Roger said:

    alex. said:

    For the love of God will anyone shut Boris up?

    His analysis of Corbyn may even be fully justified, but let other people say it. The British foreign secretary should be concentrating on his job, not trying to score party political points. It is surely in the interests of the U.K. to play down internal political opposition to their Russia stance not big it up.

    The Times headline "Corbyn is Kremlin's Useful Idiot' by Boris Johnson made me smile. You'd rather hope Boris would have the nous to avoid the word 'idiot' next to a photo of himself
    This Russian crisis has put Boris in an unsackable position; and boy does he know it.
    Really? I'd have thought it showed the absolute imperative of sacking him. Unlike everything else he's done buffoonery in this job has potentially life and death consequences.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    MarqueeMark said:

    JackW said:

    The Jacobite Party (Auchentennach Branch) will be pleased to receive proposals for consideration in return for a modest injection of funds of £50m.

    I thank you.

    You'll have to fight Tony Blair for that £50m first.....
    Blair has a 45 minute head start too ....
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
    Sandpit said:

    Elliot said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Ed Miliband, what did you do?

    "Syria war: At least 70 reported dead in suspected gas attack"

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-43686157

    People on American sites are pointing out Trump recently met with Putin alone in his office and shortly after Trump was extremely keen to pull out of Syria.
    Neither Trump nor Putin have travelled to each other’s countries since Trump has been President, so either that story’s bollox or they’re really good at travelling incognito! They did meet at the G20 summit last June in Hamburg Germany.
    Sorry. It was a phone call.
  • RobinWiggsRobinWiggs Posts: 621
    alex. said:

    For the love of God will anyone shut Boris up?

    His analysis of Corbyn may even be fully justified, but let other people say it. The British foreign secretary should be concentrating on his job, not trying to score party political points. It is surely in the interests of the U.K. to play down internal political opposition to their Russia stance not big it up.

    He is reminding the Conservative membership that he wants to be facing Corbyn at the next election, and is taking the fight direct to JC.

    On topic - any new party will need to take a position on Brexit as politics will continue to be seen through that prism for the next few years at least. That immediately limits its appeal and possible vote share by a half. It then needs to be distinctive and not-status quo. Not much chance of it pulling anything off IMHO.

    The SDP was based upon talented and respected Labour MPs (Owen, Jenkins, Williams, Rodgers) who were credible with the public and their opposition to the hard left of Labour. When I look across the current landscape, I see no credible personalities in the same mould.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,759
    IF there were to be British Macron, they would be a senior minister in May's government ready to jump ship when government hits the rocks in a serious way.

    If Brexit causes major economic problems, Corbyn is seen as likely and the Tory leadership is unavailable (perhaps a leadership election has just been won by a right winger) it is possible that something might happen. Unlikely, but possible.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Andrew Rawnsley on the prospects for a new party:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/apr/07/opportunity-knocks-for-new-party-will-anybody-dare-open-door?CMP=share_btn_tw
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,510
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Sandpit, interesting. I'd say Ricciardo.

    Another interesting thing is that in the last four races at Bahrain, only once has the chap on pole won it. [I expect that to become two in five, but it's a bit surprising].

    Looking around the Betfair markets trying to find something interesting, came across Raikkonen 4.4 to lead the first lap, and Bottas 8 in the same market.

    Also trying to work out something involving a combination of a safety car and a good result for Hamilton, given he’ll be stopping 15 laps after everyone else, and possibly one-stopping when the field stops twice.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    I am happy to have another option to vote for. I wouldn't like the job of coming up with a policy mix that would appeal to enough people to make an impact though.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,737
    CarlottaVance said:

    alex. said:

    For the love of God will anyone shut Boris up?

    His analysis of Corbyn may even be fully justified, but let other people say it. The British foreign secretary should be concentrating on his job, not trying to score party political points. It is surely in the interests of the U.K. to play down internal political opposition to their Russia stance not big it up.

    +1

    Deltapoll also looked at the popularity of leading politicians. Corbyn scored a net approval rating of -27, with the prime minister, Theresa May, on -6. She had better ratings than her cabinet team, with the chancellor Philip Hammond on -10, Brexit secretary David Davis on -22, and foreign secretary Boris Johnson on -26.

    At the bottom of the pile came Vince Cable. With the Lib Dems still struggling to make an impact, its leader has a net approval rating of -29

    Corbyn tied with Johnson.....sounds about right.....

    Yep - Johnson is not going to deliver a Tory majority. He polarises as much as Corbyn does. Looks like Hammond would be the best Tory choice. But is it possible for him to win a leadership election?

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,759
    Roger said:

    Jonathan said:

    Roger said:

    alex. said:

    For the love of God will anyone shut Boris up?

    His analysis of Corbyn may even be fully justified, but let other people say it. The British foreign secretary should be concentrating on his job, not trying to score party political points. It is surely in the interests of the U.K. to play down internal political opposition to their Russia stance not big it up.

    The Times headline "Corbyn is Kremlin's Useful Idiot' by Boris Johnson made me smile. You'd rather hope Boris would have the nous to avoid the word 'idiot' next to a photo of himself
    This Russian crisis has put Boris in an unsackable position; and boy does he know it.
    Really? I'd have thought it showed the absolute imperative of sacking him. Unlike everything else he's done buffoonery in this job has potentially life and death consequences.
    May can't sack for the duration of the Russian crisis. The Kremlin will be all over that.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,718
    CarlottaVance said:

    More Tory astroturfing:

    Half of the electorate believes that there are at least pockets of antisemitism in the Labour party, according to a poll.

    A third (34%) of voters also believe that Jeremy Corbyn is among those in the party who hold antisemitic views, despite his repeated denials and pledge to be a “militant opponent” of the problem.

    https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/2018/apr/08/labour-antisemitism-opinion-poll?__twitter_impression=true

    Oddly, there is no voting intention, but it concurs with Yougov in rating May above Corbyn.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,253
    JackW said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    JackW said:

    The Jacobite Party (Auchentennach Branch) will be pleased to receive proposals for consideration in return for a modest injection of funds of £50m.

    I thank you.

    You'll have to fight Tony Blair for that £50m first.....
    Blair has a 45 minute head start too ....
    A dodgy claim....
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,510
    Elliot said:

    Sandpit said:

    Elliot said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Ed Miliband, what did you do?

    "Syria war: At least 70 reported dead in suspected gas attack"

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-43686157

    People on American sites are pointing out Trump recently met with Putin alone in his office and shortly after Trump was extremely keen to pull out of Syria.
    Neither Trump nor Putin have travelled to each other’s countries since Trump has been President, so either that story’s bollox or they’re really good at travelling incognito! They did meet at the G20 summit last June in Hamburg Germany.
    Sorry. It was a phone call.
    Ah okay, makes more sense.

    Syria is very strategic for Russia, it’s in their interest to keep the war going there as it blocks the possibility of a rival gas pipeline from the Arabian Gulf to Europe. O&G exports are just about Putin’s only source of hard currency, and also act to keep a lot of Eastern Europe from wanting to impose more sanctions. If that pipeline guts built Russia and Putin are screwed.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,737
    A top down party built by millionaires has less chance of success than those of us seeking to change the Labour party from within. It’s a fool’s errand and will have no impact whatsoever.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,069
    Betting Post
    F1: backed Ricciardo at 3.75/3.9 [with boost] to be winner without Ferrari:
    http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2018/04/bahrain-pre-race-2018.html
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,510
    Jonathan said:

    Roger said:

    Jonathan said:

    Roger said:

    alex. said:

    For the love of God will anyone shut Boris up?

    His analysis of Corbyn may even be fully justified, but let other people say it. The British foreign secretary should be concentrating on his job, not trying to score party political points. It is surely in the interests of the U.K. to play down internal political opposition to their Russia stance not big it up.

    The Times headline "Corbyn is Kremlin's Useful Idiot' by Boris Johnson made me smile. You'd rather hope Boris would have the nous to avoid the word 'idiot' next to a photo of himself
    This Russian crisis has put Boris in an unsackable position; and boy does he know it.
    Really? I'd have thought it showed the absolute imperative of sacking him. Unlike everything else he's done buffoonery in this job has potentially life and death consequences.
    May can't sack for the duration of the Russian crisis. The Kremlin will be all over that.
    Yep, she’s stuck with the team she has for now. I’d expect a serious reshuffle this time next year, after Brexit Day, to bring in new blood and clear a few of the old guard away.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,372
    CarlottaVance said:

    alex. said:

    For the love of God will anyone shut Boris up?

    His analysis of Corbyn may even be fully justified, but let other people say it. The British foreign secretary should be concentrating on his job, not trying to score party political points. It is surely in the interests of the U.K. to play down internal political opposition to their Russia stance not big it up.

    +1

    Deltapoll also looked at the popularity of leading politicians. Corbyn scored a net approval rating of -27, with the prime minister, Theresa May, on -6. She had better ratings than her cabinet team, with the chancellor Philip Hammond on -10, Brexit secretary David Davis on -22, and foreign secretary Boris Johnson on -26.

    At the bottom of the pile came Vince Cable. With the Lib Dems still struggling to make an impact, its leader has a net approval rating of -29

    Corbyn tied with Johnson.....sounds about right.....
    We clearly need another general election campaign to remind voters how crap May actually is.

    All this talk of her staying to fight the next election - bring it on!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,069
    Mr. Sandpit, I put a pound, or suchlike, on Raikkonen to win and have set up a tiny hedge with LadEx, so I won't be going for the lead lap 1 bet, though it's an interesting idea.

    A VSC/Safety Car could cut both ways for Hamilton depending on the timing. If it comes after his stop it could set him back.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,759
    SouthamObserver said:

    A top down party built by millionaires has less chance of success than those of us seeking to change the Labour party from within. It’s a fool’s errand and will have no impact whatsoever.

    Macron came from the governing party when that party looked like it was heading for the rocks.

    As things stand, a British Macron will not be coming from Labour.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,253
    Let's be frank, this "new party" has not been spawned out of a fear of PM Corbyn; it has been spawned by fear of Brexit. As Brexit will have happened by the time this new party has even got its socks on, I suspect much of the enthusiasm/£50m will have already dissipated.

    One presumes it will have to take a markedly pro-EU stance. So another bald man enters the fray for the comb....yawn.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,367
    edited April 2018
    I'm not sure there's any room for a new middle party because things are different now. It's not a binary choice between hard monetary policy and a pseudo-Marxist movement. Any new middle party would be a naturally Remain party or it would be categorised as a swivel-eyed, racist grouping by the media.

    Having to be a Remain party with vaguely Liberal aims would beg the question ... Isn't there already such a party called the Liberal Democrats? And that's going well, isn't it?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,372
    Jonathan said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    A top down party built by millionaires has less chance of success than those of us seeking to change the Labour party from within. It’s a fool’s errand and will have no impact whatsoever.

    Macron came from the governing party when that party looked like it was heading for the rocks.

    As things stand, a British Macron will not be coming from Labour.
    Gavin Williamson probably considers himself to be the British Macron. In a minority of one, mind.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,510
    edited April 2018
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Sandpit, I put a pound, or suchlike, on Raikkonen to win and have set up a tiny hedge with LadEx, so I won't be going for the lead lap 1 bet, though it's an interesting idea.

    A VSC/Safety Car could cut both ways for Hamilton depending on the timing. If it comes after his stop it could set him back.

    Agree with your piece that the markets are all crap for this race. I also looked at lay LH podium and lay MV top 6 but odds not tempting.

    There was lots of overtaking in the F2 race yesterday, including Antem Markalov being pushed from the grid and starting from the pit lane, then coming through the field for a podium which was mighty impressive - nearly as impressive as the young Lando Norris, who won by a mile from pole in only his third F2 race. Two names to watch for F1 in the coming years.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,367
    Mr Mark,

    Indeed. It's the faltering despair of the thwarted middle-class who see their European dreams fading. Rage, rage against the dying of the light.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,510
    edited April 2018
    MarqueeMark said:

    Let's be frank, this "new party" has not been spawned out of a fear of PM Corbyn; it has been spawned by fear of Brexit. As Brexit will have happened by the time this new party has even got its socks on, I suspect much of the enthusiasm/£50m will have already dissipated.

    One presumes it will have to take a markedly pro-EU stance. So another bald man enters the fray for the comb....yawn.

    If they’re yet another pro-EU stop-Brexit party then they’ll be stillborn.

    They will need to accept the status quo of Brexit but be internationally minded, outward rather than inward looking.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,737
    Jonathan said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    A top down party built by millionaires has less chance of success than those of us seeking to change the Labour party from within. It’s a fool’s errand and will have no impact whatsoever.

    Macron came from the governing party when that party looked like it was heading for the rocks.

    As things stand, a British Macron will not be coming from Labour.

    There are so many reasons why Macron and En Marche are not transferable to the UK.

  • JWisemannJWisemann Posts: 1,082
    Look forward to this splitting the Lib Dem’s 7% of the vote
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Its a view.....

    https://twitter.com/nick_clegg/status/982876660440752128
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,737
    Johnson on Corbyn: a destructive idiot on a useful idiot.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,069
    Miss Vance, it's a view that will have sympathy with many MPs. But probably not a majority.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    JWisemann said:

    Look forward to this splitting the Lib Dem’s 7% of the vote

    Lol, my favourite response so far.

    I try not to talk from a partisan perspective especially when discussing the possibility of something but there just feel like there are too many obstacles for this to go anywhere.

    I agree with Jonathan that a Macron would make more sense from the Conservative party but who even is this Macron figure?

    Nobody say Ruth Davidson.

    Brexit as someone else mentioned just cuts through too many things, I don't see the room for a pro Brexit centrist party, I can't imagine these millions are being thrown at the idea of a pro Brexit party anyway.

    The idea I assume is anti Brexit and anti Corbyn otherwise why bother.

    Then it just basically ends up as the Lib Dems as Wisemann basically pointed out.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,905
    SouthamObserver said:

    Johnson on Corbyn: a destructive idiot on a useful idiot.

    Why do you think Johnson is 'destructive' ?

    BTW, thanks for your threader yesterday. Very interesting, and a dilemma for you.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,905
    And I see that 38degrees has a petition for Boris Johnson to be sacked after his Porton Down 'lie'.

    My flabber is well and truly ghasted. The UK is attacked, and they focus the blame on ... us.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,737
    JosiasJessop said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Johnson on Corbyn: a destructive idiot on a useful idiot.

    Why do you think Johnson is 'destructive' ?

    BTW, thanks for your threader yesterday. Very interesting, and a dilemma for you.

    He actively damages the UK’s international standing and influence.

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,510
    CarlottaVance said:

    Its a view.....

    ttps://twitter.com/nick_clegg/status/982876660440752128

    Someone else determined to see us crash out with no deal, just so they can get on their high horse and shout that they were right.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,737
    edited April 2018
    Sandpit said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Its a view.....

    ttps://twitter.com/nick_clegg/status/982876660440752128

    Someone else determined to see us crash out with no deal, just so they can get on their high horse and shout that they were right.

    We’re leaving in name only. We’ll be slightly worse off than we would have been; we’ll have less opportunity to shape the world we live in; but day-to-day very little is going to change. Time to move on.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,137
    Johnson on Corbyn: the unspeakable in full pursuit of the unbeatable?
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    edited April 2018
    JosiasJessop said:

    And I see that 38degrees has a petition for Boris Johnson to be sacked after his Porton Down 'lie'.

    My flabber is well and truly ghasted. The UK is attacked, and they focus the blame on ... us.

    To be fair you can think that Russia did it, we should respond, Boris lied* and Boris should be fired.

    *You might think things from he lied, he exaggerated the truth for effect, he's a bumbling idiot who just says things.

    Of course then there is plenty of room outside of those reasons for crazy people who think all kinds of crazy things.

    I think I've said it elsewhere, my view is Russia probably did it.

    I haven't signed it personally (not that I wouldn't necessarily) I think I retweeted something about him lying. You could argue we shouldn't be divided at this point but considering the evidence hasn't been shared with the opposition leader and right wingers have used this whole thing for partisan advantage you can't really blame the other side for doing the same can you?

    If the Tories can't trust Corbyn I don't really see why I should trust the Tories.

    I like the partisan fightback side personally but if I was going to be annoyed at Boris for anything it would be for getting caught out on something. At best it was stupid to get caught out on quite an important subject at this moment, it wasn't forgetting information, for whatever reason he actually said something that wasn't true regarding it.

    Edit: To clarify regarding that last line I don't think the reason is conspiracy.

  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    ”Next up, a group of entrepreneurs with serious money to fund a new enterprise are clustered around Simon Franks, a former Labour donor. They hover in the background, are much discussed and are in touch with the “centrist dads” in the Liberal Democrats and on the moderate wing of Labour. But will they pounce? And what would be their electoral strategy in a country where first past the post makes even a successful national insurgency, with good headline poll figures, an extreme long shot at general elections? Vince Cable, Lib Dem leader, who is struggling to get his own party off life support, says he was invited to lead them but declined because they offered “the kind of ideology-free, technocratic, authoritarian centrism that would be more at home in, say, Singapore”.”

    https://www.ft.com/content/12cd8338-db45-11e7-a039-c64b1c09b482

    7 Dec 2017

    Google a selection of the text to get past the firewall. Being turned down by Vince cable is not a good look (and parenthetically lol at his reason for spurning them *not* being on the lines of ”i already have a credible party to run”).
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/982880361217654784
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,714
    MarqueeMark said:

    felix said:

    SNP 36%-5
    CON 27%+1
    LAB 26%+3
    LD 6%=
    GRN 2%=
    Comparisons with last September

    Sunday Times Panelbase .

    Looks like the Scottish Tories holding up rather well.

    June 2017 reult was

    SNP 36.9%
    Con 28.6%
    Lab 27.1%
    LOL, was that taken at Tory conference
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,737
    Merkel and Macron both have higher net favourability in the UK than May.
    https://twitter.com/spreadsheetben/status/982561532461699072?s=21
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Rattled, much?

    Russia has slammed the Queen for downing gin, wine and champagne every day in a 'fake news' propaganda blast against the UK.Senator Aleksey Pushkov, an ally of President Vladimir Putin , said the monarch treats drinking like a "ceremony" while Prime Minster Theresa May has a brandy habit.
    The politician claimed tell-tale mannerisms reveal the pair as 'unpleasant' heavy drinkers.

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/russia-claims-queen-downs-cocktails-12324595
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    CarlottaVance said:

    Rattled, much?

    Russia has slammed the Queen for downing gin, wine and champagne every day in a 'fake news' propaganda blast against the UK.Senator Aleksey Pushkov, an ally of President Vladimir Putin , said the monarch treats drinking like a "ceremony" while Prime Minster Theresa May has a brandy habit.
    The politician claimed tell-tale mannerisms reveal the pair as 'unpleasant' heavy drinkers.

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/russia-claims-queen-downs-cocktails-12324595

    HM’s liver has done well.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,135
    CarlottaVance said:

    Rattled, much?

    Russia has slammed the Queen for downing gin, wine and champagne every day in a 'fake news' propaganda blast against the UK.Senator Aleksey Pushkov, an ally of President Vladimir Putin , said the monarch treats drinking like a "ceremony" while Prime Minster Theresa May has a brandy habit.
    The politician claimed tell-tale mannerisms reveal the pair as 'unpleasant' heavy drinkers.

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/russia-claims-queen-downs-cocktails-12324595

    Well, we know she does have a Dubonnet and gin before settling down to watch the Daily Politics....
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited April 2018
    SouthamObserver said:

    Merkel and Macron both have higher net favourability in the UK than May.
    https://twitter.com/spreadsheetben/status/982561532461699072?s=21

    And May has higher net favourability (-10) at home than Macron (-18). Foreign leaders are usually more popular abroad than at home - Merkel in France is 16 points ahead of her home score, while Macron in Germany is 48 points ahead of France, so Merkel & Macron being ahead of May in the UK is par for the course. And the UK is much less enamoured of either than other European countries.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,806
    CarlottaVance said:

    Rattled, much?

    Russia has slammed the Queen for downing gin, wine and champagne every day in a 'fake news' propaganda blast against the UK.Senator Aleksey Pushkov, an ally of President Vladimir Putin , said the monarch treats drinking like a "ceremony" while Prime Minster Theresa May has a brandy habit.
    The politician claimed tell-tale mannerisms reveal the pair as 'unpleasant' heavy drinkers.

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/russia-claims-queen-downs-cocktails-12324595

    Not exactly their top stuff even if we assume, for the sake of argument, that it is true. ‘You say we murder and attempt to murder people abroad, oppress opponents and are massively corrupt? Well, your queen drinks too much! How do you like that, huh?’
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,587
    Ishmael_Z said:

    ”Next up, a group of entrepreneurs with serious money to fund a new enterprise are clustered around Simon Franks, a former Labour donor. They hover in the background, are much discussed and are in touch with the “centrist dads” in the Liberal Democrats and on the moderate wing of Labour. But will they pounce? And what would be their electoral strategy in a country where first past the post makes even a successful national insurgency, with good headline poll figures, an extreme long shot at general elections? Vince Cable, Lib Dem leader, who is struggling to get his own party off life support, says he was invited to lead them but declined because they offered “the kind of ideology-free, technocratic, authoritarian centrism that would be more at home in, say, Singapore”.”

    https://www.ft.com/content/12cd8338-db45-11e7-a039-c64b1c09b482

    7 Dec 2017

    Google a selection of the text to get past the firewall. Being turned down by Vince cable is not a good look (and parenthetically lol at his reason for spurning them *not* being on the lines of ”i already have a credible party to run”).

    The idea that their first thought was to ask Vince to do it suggests a shaky grasp of the state of British politics. That would instantly label the new party as a LibDem front with a leader who for whatever reason is not doing well. And in fact he's right, the LibDems are more credinle than this project would be.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,905
    TheJezziah said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    And I see that 38degrees has a petition for Boris Johnson to be sacked after his Porton Down 'lie'.

    My flabber is well and truly ghasted. The UK is attacked, and they focus the blame on ... us.

    To be fair you can think that Russia did it, we should respond, Boris lied* and Boris should be fired.

    *You might think things from he lied, he exaggerated the truth for effect, he's a bumbling idiot who just says things.
    (Snip)
    That's not the impression the petition gives.

    I'm bemused you see Boris as a 'bumbling idiot', yet seem to like your dear leader. Corbyn just bumbles from one thing to another, yet the devout don't treat his utterances to the same degree of scrutiny?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,806
    CarlottaVance said:

    More Tory astroturfing:

    Half of the electorate believes that there are at least pockets of antisemitism in the Labour party, according to a poll.

    A third (34%) of voters also believe that Jeremy Corbyn is among those in the party who hold antisemitic views, despite his repeated denials and pledge to be a “militant opponent” of the problem.

    https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/2018/apr/08/labour-antisemitism-opinion-poll?__twitter_impression=true

    Given Corbyn believes there are pockets, and I’d think most Tories would agree, I am surprised only half the electorate thinks so. The simplest explanation is a lot of labour supporters disagree with Corbyn on the existence of pockets. Which is odd given they think he is doing well in the issue. I’d have assumed most would agree with him, just not think it is as big an issue as opponents say.
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
    CarlottaVance said:

    Rattled, much?

    Russia has slammed the Queen for downing gin, wine and champagne every day in a 'fake news' propaganda blast against the UK.Senator Aleksey Pushkov, an ally of President Vladimir Putin , said the monarch treats drinking like a "ceremony" while Prime Minster Theresa May has a brandy habit.
    The politician claimed tell-tale mannerisms reveal the pair as 'unpleasant' heavy drinkers.

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/russia-claims-queen-downs-cocktails-12324595

    Perhaps HMG should point out Putin has a short man complex, flabby man boobs and a failed marriage.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,316
    SouthamObserver said:

    A top down party built by millionaires has less chance of success than those of us seeking to change the Labour party from within. It’s a fool’s errand and will have no impact whatsoever.

    I just want to know if they are looking to take on an experienced analyst. Might get paid to explain how FPTP works for 4 years.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,489
    This morning's dose of Dan:

    "We have all been wrong about Corbynism. It is not a political movement. Nor – despite the cultish devotion of his followers – is it a pseudo-religious one. It is actually a form of mass psychosis."

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-5590269/DAN-HODGES-low-Corbyn-cult-Ask-Putins-poisoners.html#ixzz5C4B4PB4L
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    https://twitter.com/JoeTwyman/status/982891791186845696
This discussion has been closed.