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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tories drop to record low in today’s YouGov daily poll
Tories drop to a record low of 28%in latest YouGov.CON 28%: LAB 42%: LD 12%: UKIP 11%
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1. That all this talk of an ex leader reminds them of the shortcomings of their present one
2. Or that as the dust settles people start to remember what she was like. Her support for apartheid. Her support and friendship for the tyrant Pinochet. Section 28. Her support for the Contras. Her gift of an hereditary peerage to her son Mark. For turning the country from a compassionate one to an avaricious one.
My guess is it's the second and as people wake up to the ugly realization that the current lot are her spawn they are starting to feel nauseous.
"It's always gonna be the economy stupid which will decide the next GE.
@Roger ">There are two possibilities for the rather depressing Conservative results in the latest Yougov poll.
1. That all this talk of an ex leader reminds them of the shortcomings of their present one
2. Or that as the dust settles people start to remember her support for apartheid. Her support and friendship for the tyrant Pinochet. Her support for the Contras. Her gift of a hereditary peerage to her son Mark. For section 28. For turning the country from a compassionate one to an avaricious one.
My guess is it's the second and as people wake up to the ugly realization that the current lot are her spawn they are starting to feel nauseous."
Lol - How very Glenda Jackson - guardianistaland is not the real world dear.
"I hope I've made this clear enough for everyone to understand."
Lol. It's good to have something to laugh at in the morning.
You Gov tells us nothing more than the other pollsters ie that the blues are behind the reds but the red lead is soft. The daily poll is becoming a waste of time.
I think you're on to something. Being reminded of Thatcher and the current lot squeezing welfare from the most needy creates an interesting juxtaposition. People with dim memories might have thought her a necessary evil at the time but this reminds them that Tories have it in their blood.
It's not attractive.
My guess is that it's a combination of Roger's factors. People who really liked Maggie are making unfavourable comparisons with the current incumbents. People who really didn't are more determined to vote the Tories out. So even now she's polarising us, but not in a way helpful to Cameron.
If she'd died closer to GE2015, I suspect it would have an higher impact - but with two years to go - has it brought forward the time when all parties start to see themselves through the prism of her period in office again... and in doing so start to define themselves more clearly.
I suspect that it will shape the narrative for a while to come even subconsciously.
Would you agree with me that the government should instead be squeezing the rich?
With pay cuts in the public sector, BBC and nationalised banks for anyone earning over twice the average national wage and with a maximum wage for everyone in the public sector, BBC and nationalised banks of ten times the national minimum wage.
My guess is it's the second and as people wake up to the ugly realization that the current lot are her spawn they are starting to feel nauseous.
My guess is that your attribution of MOE swings say much more about your wish fulfilment than anything about the electorate.
The polling directly on Thatcher suggests that while still highly polarising she's still net popular,
Why this should have any bearing on a Coalition government in power 23 years after she left office is for the birds...
Her support for apartheid.
"Johannesburg - Former British prime minister Margaret Thatcher had a better grasp of the complexities and geo-strategic realities of South Africa than many of her contemporaries, former president FW de Klerk said on Monday.
A steadfast critic of apartheid, she had consistently and correctly believed that much more could be achieved through constructive engagement with the South African government than through draconian sanctions and isolation, De Klerk said in a statement."
http://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/Politics/Thatcher-had-better-grasp-of-SAs-complexities-FW-20130408
Then there was her championing of white minority rule in Rhodesia....oh, hang on.....
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2013/04/margaret-thatcher-in-six-graphs/
We might all laugh at Roger's uber champagne socialist comment and have memories brought back of his Gordon Brown / Jade Goody comparison but he is at least too honest to pretend an interest in miners and factory workers.
Their faux outrage is always amusing.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danhodges/100211660/tony-blairs-critique-of-ed-miliband-is-harsh-but-accurate-labour-has-left-itself-on-the-wrong-side-of-every-debate/
Tony Blair's critique of Ed Miliband is harsh but accurate: Labour has left itself on the wrong side of every debate
Another "automatic membership" for an independent Scotland falls - this time NATO:
In a written response on the question of membership, a Nato statement said this week: “It appears widely agreed that, as a matter of law, a Scotland which has declared its independence and thereby established its separate statehood would be viewed as a new state.”
It continued: “If it were to choose to apply for Nato membership, its application would be subject to the normal procedure, as outlined in article ten of the treaty.”
Mr Salmond has argued that Scotland is already a member of Nato “by virtue of our membership of the United Kingdom.”
http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/our-nato-spot-is-safe-after-yes-vote-insist-snp-1-2887431
Everyone I've heard mentioning Thatcher this week has said she deserves respect.
She's regarded as doing some things right and some things wrong but whatever she did it was necessary to do because of the state of the country in those days.
She's thought of as someone with ideas and the courage to try them out.
The present political 'elite' have been derided in comparison.
How many people would have beendependent on unemployment or disability benefit in 1991 if Labour had been in government during the 1980s?
I'll have a guess at 6 million.
Out of interest how many people were dependent on unemployment and disability benefit in 1997 and how many in 2010?
Actually for the reasons given by NickP and also possibly Plato. Sometimes something happens which makes people reappraise. Her passing reminds me how much I despise the Tory Party-past present and probably even future.
A week ago my pen might have hovered over Cameron in a contest with Ed. Today I'd campaign for Ed! I was in a cafe yesterday and at the next table someone was going on about 'how they don't make them like that anymore'. His colleagues grunted. I'm not sure any of them were warming to the present incarnations.
Con:26 - 34
Lab: 37 - 43
So leads between 3 and 17 are within MOE.
(MOE for Con is 3.53, Labour 2.83, so to be precise the MOE lead range is 4 - 16)
Sure he will be still banging the same drum under PM Ed
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/9985673/Tobin-Tax-is-madness-for-Europe-and-economic-war-against-Britain.html
"A week ago my pen might have hovered over Cameron in a contest with Ed"
Roger that one made me laugh ! ;-)
"And twitter is full of stories of the “I can’t believe that x isn’t on the list” ilk. At the same time one particular faction appears to have got a lot of their favoured candidates selected. Apart from anything else, all of this concern about the process is a shame for the many excellent members who have made it to the lists of candidates.
So how has this happened? How come in the age of Ed’s new politics have we had such a clumsy and potentially biased selection? The answer is actually quite simple. It really is a stitch up.
I should know one when I see one after all! The regional panels are supposed to be balanced between local parties and trade unions but in reality many of the local party reps are really trade union place men and women. So, many of the panels are pretty much controlled by the trade unions.
And of course, “trade union” generally means Unite, GMB and Unison. The trade unions have then used their power to select who they want and block those that they do not. So if you are pro-business for instance – sod off! Easy really.
We shouldn’t be surprised; it is what the trade unions have been saying that they would do. Unite have a political strategy that explicitly says that they will operate on this basis; get onto local committees, selection panels and regional boards and then wield power to get sympathisers selected.
If you really are going to build a new politics then you can’t just say that you are and then sit back assuming that it will happen. You can have all the community organising you like but if the party is still operating a closed shop then the community will notice... http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2013/04/11/why-has-ed-allowed-the-unions-to-stitch-up-the-euro-candidate-selections-what-happened-to-the-new-politics/
Roger, I might be mistaken, but I think a few threads ago, you were saying you could never vote Tory because of Thatcher! Now you're telling us you're actually a floating voter. That champagne you quaff must be strong stuff.
Will Tory talking heads ever get it right?
The finding is in contrast with other countries with high levels of immigration from Eastern Europe, where the reverse is true.
Researchers found that in the UK, workers from the countries that joined the EU in 2004 and later were 7 per cent more likely to be in work than British-born people.
But in Germany, the Netherlands and Finland locally-born workers have a higher employment rate than migrant workers from the new EU countries, the study said.
The report, by two Finnish academics, was presented yesterday to a conference on migration at University College London organised by NORFACE, a European organisation of state-funded research councils.
It said that while Eastern European workers in Britain are more likely to have jobs than locals, their jobs are often among the most low paid.
This appears to support the long-held argument that many migrants are more willing to take low-paid jobs than those of British birth. As early as 2007, official figures showed that four out of five newly-created jobs were going to migrants.
The findings that migrants are filling vacant jobs while many British people draw the dole comes as a heated debate rages over welfare spending......
The Finnish report, by Mari Kangasniemi and Merja Kauhanen, said that one of the key factors affecting the job chances of Eastern European migrants is labour market conditions in the countries to which they move.
They said: ‘We find that Eastern European immigrants had a lower probability of employment on average in comparison to natives in all other countries except for the UK during the period 2004 to 2009.’
According to the findings, Eastern European migrants were 16.1 per cent less likely to be employed than locals in the Netherlands, where workers from Poland and the seven other countries that joined the EU in 2004 were allowed to work freely in 2008.
In Finland, where Eastern Europeans could work from 2007, they were 5.7 per cent less likely to have a job than locals.
Germany kept strict restrictions on Eastern European workers until 2011, but in the period covered by the report Eastern European workers who did move to Germany were around 11 per cent less likely than Germans to have a job.
‘In the UK, the employment gap in favour of new member state immigrants is around 7 percentage points,’ the report found.
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2307216/
That looks bad for the blues. On the other hand, wasn' it reported the other day that Thatcher was concerned that Major's government wasn't far enough behind in the polls at the mid-term?
Meanwhile, over at pb2, discussion on the forthcoming China race continues: http://politicalbetting.blogspot.co.uk/2013/04/china-early-discussion.html
The forecast remains almost certainly dry.
The overnight news that the LibDem held sway in the Luton by-election has brought the crushing prospect that the yellow peril will attempt to breach the borders of neighbouring Harpenden.
Mrs Jack W suggests we expand fine pie production down to Hertfordshire but will this extreme measure be enough to contain the impending glut of sandals, beards, brocoli quiche and "winning here" litter ??
I haven't felt this low since the late Dowager Lady Jack W almost appeared in a issue of the News of the World with the rector, a Georgian silver marrow scoop, the editor of a communist magazine and a newly patented pair of vibrating linen bloomers !!
Because he thought it was the fashionable metro-progressive thing to do.
In reality 90% of the country didn't give a toss about section 28 one way or another.
And we're still waiting for Labour's condemnation of Ken Livinstone's homophobic comments.
As to Mandela in the 1980s he WAS a convicted terrorist, he did plead guilty at his trial after all.
Of course one man's terrorist is another man's freedom fighter but with Thatcher's personal experience of terrorism from Airey Neave onwards her views are understandable.
But what really upsets leftists re Thatcher and South Africa is that she was proved right on how South Africa should progress to democracy.
A harder western line on South Africa could easily have caused civil war there.
Perhaps they would have preferred that?
Benefits Tourists Sponge off Welfare
Ah!
British Jobs for British Workers!
Lazy Brits skive on Welfare Benefits!
Whew!
Anyone know if ICM are in the field this weekend?
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/jf5uuv68b1/tabs_thatcher_0408092013.pdf
Almost uniformly popular....
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/culture/books/booknews/9969702/Quiz-Whats-the-origin-of-the-word-bungalow-And-19-other-etymological-posers.html
I don't think it has much to do with Thatcher, it's just part of a process of Conservative decline which has been slowly gathering pace since Spring 2012.
How long before Cameron is forced to take action and has to sack Osborne?
Isn't the origin of "bungalow" derived from Bedford slang - not much up top ??
http://ukrp.musicradio.com/lbc973/live?rpMsp=3
I'm not saying that this poll is definitely such a poll - we will only find that out after another few polls - but we have to expect that about one poll a month is going to be a massive outlier, and you can also generate large oscillations simply by moving from one extreme (within margin of error) to the other.
Looking back over the YouGov polls for the year to date, the only change that I can identify* that appears to be anything other than noise is a slight decline in the Labour and Tory scores around the time of the Eastleigh by-election, presumably related to the credibility that UKIP gained from their second place.
The daily YouGov polls are an amazing resource for interested people to analyse, but looking at the day-to-day changes in isolation is probably the worst way to do so.
* Also worth noting is that the Lib Dems are a little bit up on 2012 in 2013, though this change seems to have occurred towards the end of 2012.
Give some facts instead of your faux outrage frothing.
And explain why the homophobic Ken Livingstone was allowed to remain Labour's London mayoral candidate.
As to racism I'll leave that to you again - after all it was Labour who shouted "British Jobs For British Workers" and plotted 'to make the white folk angry'.
BTW did you ever explain why you moved from Birmingham to a 98% white area?
Good luck to her anyway, nothing wrong with having more 30 something women in parliament (compared to middle aged white men).
Don't be such a wet !!
As Mrs T indicated such a small mid term lead for the opposition is pathetic. One might slightly arch an eyebrow should Ed's mob garner a 20% lead with ICM for several months .... but really these soufle leads with YouGov are laughable.
Go and see matron and reflect on the fact that some have real problems with the yellow peril on manoeuvres not a few hundred yards away !!
Given SShields is rock solid Labour - I'm more interested in how well the Kippers do.
Roger criticized Thatcher for supporting an authoritarian Latin American, Pinochet, and then criticizes Thatcher for supporting the Contras who fought against the authoritarian Latin American Sandinistas.
Now its possible to support authoritarianism on principle or support 'freedom fighters' on principle or its possible to look at each case on a 'which is on my side' basis.
But why does Roger instinctively support the Marxist side in every conflict?
I dare say that's the fashionable thing in champagne socialist circles but considering that Roger is a 'creative' I would have hoped he would have opposed Marxism with its record of oppression against 'creatives' from Russia to Cuba to China.
Livingstone isn't a homophobe.
Graph 5 is the damning one in my opinion - the 10th percentile worse off in real-terms after housing costs.
Also worth noting is graph 1. Average growth under Thatcher of 0.6% per quarter - exactly the same as the average from 1955-2013.
I'd go as far as to say that graph 5 makes a good case for Kenneth Clarke being the best post-war Chancellor. For various reasons, the country missed out on making the most of his talents.
Labour to poll < 35% in 2015.
The world has moved on and you're stuck in the late 80s.
"RT @legardj In response to question about #redbull owner saying no more team orders @AussieGrit said, after some thought "probably easier" @andrewbensonf1 28 minutes ago"
I wonder if it'll end up being like a four-wheeled version of Road Rash... [for those who remember Road Rash I've heard rumours that it might be making a comeback].
"Graph 5 is the damning one in my opinion - the 10th percentile worse off in real-terms after housing costs."
There's a bit of bun-fight in the comments re that chart - may be worth having a read of the various interpretations.
A lot of people seem to be stuck in the 80s - I have no idea why. I've no desire to return to them nor to judge today by them. They were a thing of their time - good and bad bits. Just like the 90s or 00s.
Though TBH, I can't think of anything bar Iraq and political correctness that stands out in the latter two decades.
Biff was such a dick.
LOL .....
but the news worsens with as yet unconfirmed reports that "bar chart" leaflets have been spotted in north Harpenden near Kinsbourne Green !!
Has Mark Senior been spotted in Sussex recently ?? .... I may have to call in a few favours from NASA to track his activities !!
This tweet sums it up
RT @WelshToy: It's not as if there would ever be a hate crime created with the description "white male christian hate crime" is there.
A middle class Brummy wakes up one morning and finds himself with a mullet and a ticket to the NUS bop . Meanwhile over at Longbridge no-one in the TGWU gives a shit about gay and lesbian week, so where's he going to find a token partner ........
RT @WelshToy: Is the witch dead? No! She's alive and well in the form of free market capitalism #recordsales. Ding dong!!
The Con/LD Coalition was formed to provide economic and political stability and has failed its primary objective.
In May 2010, the UK faced crises on too many fronts and was left, by the previous government, ill-able to turn things around easily and quickly. Global events: bad weather and subsequent food shortages, increased demand for energy and the continuing failure of the EZ, resulted in unwelcome cost increases for most consumers and a squeeze on their disposable incomes, so limiting growth, and facing these problems:
Finance: "There is no money" said it all. A FSA/BOE/HMG banking regulation disaster that resulted in bank failures and a false house price bubble, that could put thousands in negative equity or minimised first time buyers and put them at the mercy of private landlords. Thus, very little money for capital projects restricted that form of growth and meant more than five years to eliminate the deficit and reduce the debt.
Globalisation & Technology: Electronic communications has eliminated many former white collar clerical jobs and automation had reduced the blue collar jobs - a problem that had not been solved in the previous decade. Globalisation meant many countries are far more competitive than the UK and with lower wage rates.
Education standards had been falling since the mid-1970s and despite ministers' regular exultations about improving results, the UK continued to drop in international tables. Employers have constantly complained about the educational inabilities of school leavers and graduates. With opposition from educationalists and teaching unions, education reform was clearly more than a five year project.
Welfare & Employment: The use of Incapacity Benefit to mask growing unemployment and the growth of welfare payments over that of employment pay presented an unsustainable social and financial problem. The growth of unproductive public sector employment also was unaffordable.
Energy: Total lack of a long term energy policy put the consumer at the mercy of spot prices. Also HMG signed up to expensive EU renewable plans without due technical R&D having been started. High energy costs makes the UK uncompetitive in many fields.
Culture & Immigration: Nigh uncontrolled immigration imposed cultural and financial pressures on a small island that were unsustainable.
Coalition = Compromise. Having suffered for at least two years and with a bleak outlook, the electorate required quick workable solutions (practicalism) and not abstract political theory (idealism).
Without a courtship, a marriage rarely works and this coalition was a forced marriage - not ideal for either party. The pre-nuptial contract (Coalition Agreement) always had different agenda priorities on both sides and so abstract items like AV Referendum, HoL Reform and HoC reduction were prioritised (normal boundary review should not have been affected). AV was firmly rejected by the electorate and that message should have been received by both parties to stop politicing, when more urgent matters had yet to be resolved.
The lack of finance and the depth of the problems meant that solutions could not be achieved within five years and some of the problems not resolved within ten years.
The Coalition failed to tell the electorate in depth the true extent of the problems and the probable time it would take for their solution.
Macbeth said, " If it were done when ’tis done, then ’twere well it were done quickly." People do not like to take nasty medicine for a long period - they prefer a short, sharp intense shock with the ability to foresee a calmer and more predictable future. Currently it looks like a long draw-out affair to achieve a real (and not the previous false) economic stability.
In contrast, Ireland, in order to be bailed out economically, and with its private sector on it knees, imposed severe cuts on its public sector, including wages, pensions and jobs. Whilst Ireland is now showing signs of growth, more austerity has been required in order to balance its books.
If the UK had imposed the same or even stronger degree of austerity in 2010, would it be now in stronger economic state and more able to spend on capital development with a retrained and more globally competitive workforce - or would a crippling series of politically inspired strikes prevented the UK from stepping out of its self-created mire?
At least Livingstone hasn't called someone who described homosexuality as 'perverted and abominable' an 'honoured guest' when he hosted him at City Hall.....oh, hang on.....
Think back to the 'Be Afraid Be Very Afraid' poster featuring a morph between Thatcher and Hague which effectively finished his career....Thatcher poisoned every well she drank at
Now not only can't Cameron disown her but he's forced to eulogize her
Someone up there has a sense of humour
On, tax, immigration, education, Europe....er.....
http://www.yourbritain.org.uk/news/labour-launch-new-policy-documents-for-consultation
* A British Investment Bank: making it a reality
* Tax avoidance: tax havens
* Protecting workers: including the role of agency workers, the living wage, and Gangmaster Licensing Authority
* Vocational education, apprenticeships and the role of job guarantees in tackling youth unemployment.
* Our buses and railways: giving communities more of a say
* Childcare: what matters to parents and children?
* The housing crisis: house building and a private rented sector that works for Britain’s families
* 21st Century NHS and social care: delivering integration
* Young people and politics: making a fresh start
* Britain's role in a post-2015 development vision
Yes. I said yesterday that the death of Thatcher effect, is and will be, the cause of weird polling and I am being proved right. I call it weird because it appears ghoulish to me, that a corps can have such an effect on any right thinking person. But then we have a lot of weirdos on the left.
BTW @Financier: Nicely written, re your article.
It's true - the last two decades have been pretty light on memories!!
there is a valid question for Cameron to answer in why he pushed for it.