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If you think that TMay will stand down prior to the next election (which will depend on when that is) then Tories look the right horse.
If you think she will lead the Cons into the next election, then you have to ask yourself if Corbyn would beat her.
I am not convinced this market should be drifting for Corbyn. May looks a bit (a bit) more secure whereas Salisbury only speaks to whether Corbyn would defeat her at a re-run of last year's election.
Only 8% want May to step down as Tory leader now
https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2018/04/support-for-may-leading-the-conservatives-into-the-next-election-hits-its-highest-total-yet.html
Guessing one of those lines might be George Osborne who's no longer an MP.
Who knew the middle classes were so stuffed full of Stalinist anti-semites?
Sir David Garrard has donated about £1.5m since 2003, but says the party he had supported "no longer exists"."
https://news.sky.com/story/top-labour-donor-sir-david-garrard-quits-party-over-anti-semitism-row-11312352
"Labour is a political party, not a cult."
(https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/jeremy-corbyn-labour-party-antisemitism-criticism-a8283666.html)
I think you mean "was" Phil, sorry to say.
8%.
I suspect it will be significantly different.
It is not as unusual as you think for a council to ignore the LGO's findings. The LGO only makes recommendations. Councils don't have to follow them. There are many cases of councils refusing to comply with LGO recommendations. The council won't get into any trouble. And, to be honest, I am not surprised they don't want to pay compensation for procedural errors when dismissing someone for safeguarding concerns that appear to be valid.
I note, by the way, that Mr Lewell-Buck's lawyer recommended that he go to the LGO rather than go to tribunal for unfair dismissal. To me, that speaks volumes.
Edit: To take one example:
https://twitter.com/DerbyChrisW/status/980374043395272704
Haters being anyone who doesn't actually agree that Jezza is the second coming.
66 % thought anti-semitism was a genuine problem in Labour. That divided into 19% who simply thought it was a genuine problem, and 47% who thought it was being used to undermine Corbyn and deflect criticism from Israel.
A further 30% thought there was no problem, but that it was being used to undermine Corbyn and deflect criticism from Israel.
FPT I thought Roger's joke was a decent one. As he says, Jewish humour is often self-mocking.
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/a1lnfhilsh/TimesResults_180329_LabourMembers_W.pdf
Personally I would put Corbyn ahead of the other favourites in a very poor pool. I could tolerate Hunt or Rudd, if you overlook her dodgy business dealings.
Labour is very London and relatively youth dominated of course these days - but these classifications are about employment and education not wealth. You can be AB - and rent - and actually have less wealth and earn less than a C2 or even a D who owns their own home. A builder or plumber will often be better paid than many so called qualified professionals in office type jobs these days.
Obviously the Israelis are behind the smears against Corbyn for this very reason.
Perhaps I should tell the cult this.
No mention of any suggestion that Hamas should behave differently.
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2015/07/18/europe/uk-queen-nazi-salute-footage/index.html
https://twitter.com/iainjwatson/status/980437247798497281
Clearly, a Hunt-Mordaunt duel is in the national interest.
https://order-order.com/2018/04/01/corbyn-deletes-facebook-account/
Moved from wrong headed to actively dangerous
Perhaps at this time we might remember some of those oppressed in the Middle East - https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/12076/iraq-christians-disappeared. Prince Charles was right to raise their plight.
It is so sad to think that Christianity might vanish from the place of its birth.
I think you're misreading the LGO report.
It was into whether the council followed its own safeguarding procedures. It couldn't rule on the truth or falsehood of those allegations because they were made to organisations outside its remit. Moreover, a tribunal could hardly be convened for wrongful dismissal because he had left the employ of the organisations in question before the allegations were made. These charges came to light only when Simon Buck was denied a university place.
It also states, remarkably, that the only allegation that was investigated by an outside professional was dismissed, but that the council still decided it had happened. That strikes me as quite extraordinary.
Normally I would agree with you that three independent witnesses reporting similar behaviour is to say the least suggestive, but there are not - there appears to be one substantiated albeit quite minor charge of neglect, and a number of other allegations, none of them amounting to safeguarding concerns but rather professional misconduct that are unproven but the council is adamant for unknown reasons are true. This is compounded by the fact that in the LGO's view, there was a failure to follow the council's own procedure at every single stage of the investigation.
Now we have the council not disputing the LGO's findings, but refusing to pay because they are standing by the results of their meetings rather than of the independent investigations. You couldn't make this up. You are right about the LGO's powers, which surprises me, but I can see this going all the way to the High Court.
I have to say, this stinks. Something is clearly wrong here and in the absence of further evidence a vendetta/conspiracy looks possible, to put it no more strongly than that.
"the last remaining option is to remove Corbyn and his acolytes the only way you can: by forming a new parliamentary grouping, the Progressive Labour Party. Sign up enough MPs to dwarf the SNP and you’ll get some short money to tide you over until private donors can be tapped."
https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/03/the-question-labour-moderates-must-ask-themselves/
Stephen Bush just called him out on this on twitter:
https://twitter.com/stephenkb/status/980435237493714944
https://en-gb.facebook.com/JeremyCorbynMP/
1. When Corbyn first became a candidate for leader, quite a few raised concerns for precisely the reasons which have become evident in recent days - and were roundly poo-poohed. We were told not to be silly and that Corbyn could not be blamed for whom he happened to be standing next to. Well, as we’ve seen (and as some of us said at the time) he did not “happen” to stand by these people. He chose to do so.
2. The risks for Labour now are two-fold:-
- that more is uncovered which relates to Corbyn directly: what he may have said or done in the past.
- that there is some violence or atrocity and that there are not many degrees of separation between the perpetrators and the Labour leadership. I fervently hope this does not happen.
It is sad, very sad, that Labour should have come to this.
What is also very worrying that some should be sanguine at the prospect of Holocaust deniers being given a free pass. Quite apart from questions of moral decency, these are people who deny facts - provable facts - and to have such people anywhere near public policy is very worrying.
I find the words the LGO used about the independent social worker's report interesting. They say the social worker found no evidence of abuse and therefore neglect could not be substantiated. That isn't the same as saying they found all the allegations made by Mr C's family unproven. But there isn't much point speculating about this report. All three agencies involved (the council, the NHS Trust and the university) had access to this report and all three appear to have concluded that the incidents happened.
I am surprised you think that swearing at care home patients and their families is not a safeguarding concern, this being the common element in all three allegations. Without going into details, I know for a fact that care homes where I live would regard this as a significant safeguarding issue.
Yes, there were some failures to follow procedure but it is not clear that these in any way affected the outcome.
Judicial review would be the next step if Mr Buck wishes to take it further. I would be surprised if his lawyer advises him to go down that route. I doubt it would get him anywhere. If he did I think the council may be ordered to pay him the £400 awarded by the LGO, although that is not certain, but there is a reasonable chance the court would decide he should bear his own legal costs, which would wipe out the award.
I was imagining over 50, or lets say less than 60 as a higher end figure already, even if the core decided to split off (so the split is already on) I couldn't really see it going much further without big shifts in public opinion to give them more confidence. It looks at the moment as if this new party would do pretty badly come election time, which would happen eventually, and that would put some off who might want to leave and would be tempted if a group split off.
It does seem unlikely but each day seems to be a bad news day, especially for Corbyn, and the media seem to be in full pursuit
http://jewishnews.timesofisrael.com/labour-alan-bull-council-holocaust-hoax/
It is because of this Christine Shawcroft had to resign.
It isn't impossible but I think events would need to really play in the central factions favour and a leader emerges from among them that could get serious traction with the public.
My hope is that the next leader will be a unifying figure from the soft left with charisma, dynamism and a plan for government.
https://twitter.com/BuggerLePanda/status/980469514860187648
A few of the ones that come to mind could use some time aside from Emily Thornberry.
Just look at the hatred they unleash on line on opponents.