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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It looks as though it could be after Easter before Pennsylvani
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It looks as though it could be after Easter before Pennsylvania punters get paid
The above from the Wikipedia page on last Tuesday’s Pennsylvania special election sets out the result as it stands at the moment but those who have bet on It are going to have to wait some time before this has been resolved.
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Anyway, fpt - in case Mr Meeks is still on
Dearie me: a lot of very bad tempered exchanges this evening now that we are back on Brexit. It almost makes me long for some more Russian poisoning just so that we can argue about hats.
A genuine question to Mr Meeks: I understand your arguments about the anger felt by those who may/will suffer as a result of a policy ("mad hobbyhorse" in your words) they not only do not support but violently oppose.
But could not this equally apply the other way around i.e. there are clearly people who felt that their jobs / wages / way of life were threatened by a policy (EU membership / FoM) that they did not support / opposed?
It is not all that obvious to me that one group's anger is more worthy of notice than another's. Put it another way - indeed as I put it in this header - http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/07/12/uniting-the-country/ - both the benefits and costs of being in the EU and of Brexit have not or are not likely to be fairly shared. (And I think they ought to be.)
You are complaining that those who may lose their jobs because of Brexit are entitled to complain, especially if they did not support the policy. But that must also apply, surely, in reverse i.e. those who lost out - or felt that they did - because of EU membership are equally entitled to complain. The issue now is that there were more of them than anyone realised hence the position the country now finds itself in.
https://files.datapress.com/london/dataset/borough-council-election-results-2014/London-Borough-Council-Elections-2014.pdf
Page xvi (page 18 f teh PDF) gives Labour 2,626,540 of 6,103,629 which is 43%
On the next page it gives them 37.4%
What am I missing?
Wonder why Mr Wylie doesn't want to be audited?
Swing of 1% from Lab to Con since GE (Lab -2.9, Con -0.6) - but no seats would change hands.
Still, another encouraging poll for Con.
https://blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/2018/03/19/1893/
Your spreadsheet (thanks) thinks the Tories got 38,286 in Barnet. The link says 108,774.
Is that because your spreadsheet counts voters and not votes?
Lab: 940,393 (37.3%)
Con: 662,974 (26.3%)
LD: 267,859 (10.6%)
Green: 245,201 (9.7%)
UKIP: 235,645 (9.4%)
Ind: 31,186 (1.2%)
Others:135,355 (5.4%)
Total: 2,518,613
Okey dokey, I understand now.
Labourites disproportionately live in multimember constituencies and/or use all three votes.
The UKPollingReport changes are therefore broadly correct.
https://m.huffingtonpost.co.uk/amp/entry/ukip-faces-being-wound-up-in-a-fortnight-after-judge-orders-payment-of-ps175000-libel-case-costs-mr-justice-warby_uk_5ab00c20e4b0697dfe198013/?__twitter_impression=true
Comparing them to the national results shows how London has trended towards Labour. In 1994 London was slightly more Conservative than the country as a whole and since 2002 there has been a big trend to Labour:
1994 Con +2%
1998 Lab +4%
2002 Lab +1%
2006 Lab +6%
2010 Lab +9%
2014 Lab +10%
Of course London has been the epicentre of falling levels of home ownership - something traditionally associated with Conservative support.
Interesting to see that a Conservative lead in vote share across London in 2002 still left Labour having the most councillors.
One explanation may be that in 2014 Labour supporters were usually voting for all 3 Labour candidates, whereas often Tories may have been voting twice for the Tory candidate and once for the UKIP candidate who were usually running just one candidate in most wards.
I think it's a second pref thing. More left-wing independents and parties that stood less than three candidates per ward.
https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/975847981168685057
https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/975848974707019776
Didn't we manage to declare Fife NE on election night on a majority of 2, and several others fewer than 100 margin.
And this result makes absolutely no difference to the political control of the House.
50 odd in Berwick Upon Tweed in the 1970s
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-43465700
Why she didn't apply for a warrant earlier is a question which ought to be answered. The opportunity for the alleged ratfuckers to cover their tracks should not have been given.
62 Walthamstow West by-election, 1967 Gained by the Conservatives
100 West Derbyshire by-election, 1986 Held by the Conservatives
205 Leyton by-election, 1965 Gained by the Conservatives
219 Torrington by-election, 1958 Gained by the Liberals
220 Central Norfolk by-election, 1962 Held by the Conservatives
264 Ashfield by-election, 1977 Gained by the Conservatives
289 Birmingham Northfield by-election, 1982 Gained by Labour
293 Dunbartonshire West by-election, 1950 Held by Labour
359 Combined English Universities by-election, 1946 Gained by the Conservatives
365 Glasgow East by-election, 2008 Gained by the SNP
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_by-election_records#Smallest_majorities
Nothing obviously challengeable
Some interesting accounts from literal tied votes in the US, they seem to love the minutiae of electoral processes over there
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_close_election_results
If memory serves Fermanagh and South Tyrone faced a challenge on a majority of 4 votes to SF in 2010, but, as wiki puts it 'However the Court found that there were only three ballot papers which could not be accounted for, and even if they were all votes for Connor, Gildernew would have had a plurality of one. The election was therefore upheld'.
I do feel sorry for anyone who loses so minutely though. Poor poor LDs in Fife.
Plus the marked register helps a lot.
Trouble is, I’m not sure we even have the right legislative framework to deal with this sort of thing. In an ideal world, Facebook would be slapped with the mother of all fines, and CA shit down.
I remember giggling/chatting with Lab/LD/Greens/Kippers about why votes get rejected/accepted, and why a flaccid penis isn't a clear preference for a candidate whereas an erect penis is.
The only incidents I can recall was when the BNP kicked off about now sharing the platform with the Muslim candidates in the locals and a rather persistent Kipper who was quite adamant that 3 votes for him that had been rejected (because they had signed their name/address on the ballot paper) should be counted.
Mueller she is not.
(edit - She is clearly a qualified lady:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elizabeth_Denham
but there seems to be an urgent need for a rather more aggressive investigative arm for egregious cases like this... and probably a great deal more funding.)
These days when I speak French I sound like Officer Crabtree.
Fun fact, Officer Crabtree was modelled on Ted Heath who once gave a speech in French with heavy English accent.
https://twitter.com/SenFeinstein/status/975856012631707648
And most importantly
What will this do to his Betfair price o_O
There is obviously no piss for the wicked.
But to come agonisingly close to winning and failing? When if you squeak it you could have hopes of a first time incumbency bonus, of winning over the people so much that it is safe for your party for years to come? It feels like that would be rough.
It might be somebodies only shot at a winnable seat, and if others succeeded in others seats where you failed, perhaps overturning tougher odds, you might be blamed.
https://twitter.com/DamianCollins/status/975856097163702272
To avoid competition ?
The focus may be around the US elections but there a few notable UK figures who have been part of this whole game.
like there is at the count in Blighty.
Aside from Addington and Fieldway in Croydon, both K&C and Tower Hamlets were redrawn with a variety of ward sizes.
It was awkward at the last count I attended though, as the wrong winner was announced, and gave a very surprised victory speech, and later everyone had to be called back to the stage.
http://groceries.iceland.co.uk/iceland-ham-and-pineapple-thin-pizza-367g/p/50760
Catch Of The Day
and the concession on EU citizens during transition
Oh and the NI Border
But apart from that
Oh and the single market and customs union albeit while losing its role in any decision-making institutions.
and the fact that people like IDS say “There does seem to be a real concern … It appears that at least through the implementation period nothing will change and I think that will be a concern and the government clearly has to deal with that because a lot of MPs are very uneasy about that right now
But apart from that!!
I'm not sure I'm qualified to write a thread on it.
On the lack of challenges to U.K. election results - that’s easy isn’t it? Secretly most candidates want to lose...
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/08/18/microsoft-v-mikerowesoft-iceland-v-iceland-five-strangest-trademark/
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/19/technology/facebook-alex-stamos.html
Mr. Stamos had been a strong advocate inside the company for investigating and disclosing Russian activity on Facebook, often to the consternation of other top executives, including Sheryl Sandberg, the social network’s chief operating officer, according to the current and former employees, who asked not to be identified discussing internal matters.
Like Uber, they seem to have an entrenched corporate culture of scumbaggery.
Enough billionaires, already.
https://twitter.com/chrisinsilico/status/975335430043389952
I said to my wife that, based on my election agent experience, if I were Vladimir Vladimirovitch’s agent inspecting the dubious ballots I’d be arguing it to count for my candidate on the grounds that only that candidate’s line was marked.