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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Theresa May may well yet achieve her ambition of leading her p
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Theresa May may well yet achieve her ambition of leading her party at the next election
One of the features about the current Russia crisis is what it is doing to perceptions of Theresa May. The latest polling overnight showing her getting huge backing from voters for the way she is handling things reflect how her approach is very much resonating with the public mood.
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Just look at the most recent reshuffle and her attempt to nobble potential leaders in the making.
PLUS let us not forget she's a terrible campaigner, she's an analogue politician in a digital age.
Jezza now seems much more likely, May less so.
She might well also outlast Vince too.
One from the back of the last thread and the other for a dive to be first on this thread.
Red card - Off to ConHome for the day.
Even though Corbyn at the least had presented poorly on this, despite the rather silly attempts to suggest he has basically the same position as the government (his gutless mps would not have grumbled were that the case) mostly because in an attempt to look calm he is acting like we are frothing when we have not overreacted yet, merely reacted. The factors behind the parity of the parties, and Corbyn's baSE liking him, won't change.
Discuss: Vladimir Putin has just ensured a Hard/no deal/WTO Brexit with the events in Salisbury.
No Tory MP will rebel now, they just won’t risk making Corbyn PM after Corbyn's conduct this week.
Gordon browns spinners made that argument, making him seem worse than he was, presentationally.
The point being it's not the response that matters but the outcome. And we don't know what that will be yet.
Also the talk of Corbyn being replaced is very optimistic, it just doesn't look likely at all.
There is no happy path for the Tories to ditch TMay and fare well at the next election. They may still fair badly anyway but I'm convinced she will lead them in 2022, unless she decides she's had enough and goes voluntarily. I suspect the temptation to have a shot at redeeming herself will be too great and she'll be there in 2022.
Corbz keeps on like this and, well, ... two comics already died this week.
Neither Corbyn nor May is too 'old' (Just look over the pond !). The Tories are going to look pretty tired by 2022, and May doesn't have Major's 92 cushion to absorb a likely swing against.
note to self: add more tinfoil to weekend shopping
I agree May is having a good crisis so far. Her response has been measured and careful, in contrast to the silly and unstatesmanlike outbursts from Boris and Gavin Williamson.
I can hear her advisors saying: "But you handled the Russian crisis so well and everyone saw you fist bump that actual person so there really is no need to take part in the debates..."
Stoke South, Mansfield could head back to Labour etc.
The Conservatives should remember just what a colossal catalogue of errors May's last campaign was.
Then get on with giving Corbyn a good kicking.....
I was actually impressed when I watched it, though I guess low expectations helps there.
This is a fire-fighting government that jumps from crisis to crisis, but without real purpose or strategy. That applies to all arms of government, Foreign policy, defence, Brexit, Health, Social care, prisons, immigration, education, universities, etc etc
In short Brexit will be on the boil for years and there won't be an obviously good time for the PM to be replaced. Mrs May might decide she has had enough and step down. Most likely this will be just after the UK formally leaves the EU in April next year
(PS Though what to make of the 5% of UKIP voters who voted Remain is beyond me!)
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/974586510187122689
I was going to then say, that if anyone should mention it, he needs only make a reference to the Royal Family and their longevity to a) disperse criticism, and b) bring the unlikeliest of sceptics on side...but then I realised, sadly, that no one can be sure who will be the monarch, come 2020 although I would happily back at odds on it will still be HMQ.
Have just laid a bit more Mogg next PM, can't see how its a 5-1 shot right now.
https://twitter.com/henrymance/status/974575730641244161
Is there a serious possibility that, if May is challenged, she makes it to the last two and if so would the membership back her? I always feel that the Tory membership (small though it is theses days!) has a strong streak of loyalty through it.
What I think the Salisbury Attack has done in terms of the timing of any challenge / handover is seriously reduce the chance of it being this year.
But then I always thought that Summer 2019 was the most likely moment.
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/974587573149585409
(I haven't lowered myself to buy it, so this is just hearsay, but one of the comments to Mance's twitter notes that the DM still has "Newspaper of the Year" in it's masthead. Not that they're sore or anything.)
"This is what we call the 'Throw Open the Borders option,'" said one operator. The scenario involves the UK on day one of Brexit unilaterally deciding not to enforce customs checks, and other border checks, and presuming that a reciprocal approach will be taken by the European Union, and thus at least temporarily maintaining a non-negotiated form of frictionless trade in goods.
https://news.sky.com/story/brexit-forensics-playing-chicken-with-the-channel-tunnel-11291767
But then you only need to see Faisal Islam's tweets on this forum to see he obsessed with the EU
This is what taking back of control of our laws and borders means.
On a side note, I had previously teetered on the edge of the side of the corner of no-man's land of thinking that if Lab get someone halfway sensible, and the Cons had continued on the JRM-induced bonkers Brexit path, then I could see how I would, er, perhaps, maybe, NOT vote Cons.
But I have to say that things seem to have untoxified a tadge at Cons HQ.