politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Betting on who will the the next Speaker of the House of Commons
Newsnight has learned of allegations that the Speaker of the House of Commons, John Bercow, mistreated an employee #newsnight pic.twitter.com/3qV8rtykGP
One thing that surprised me (because someone walked it in a day): there is only 25 miles between tidal waters on Scotland's west and east coasts: (Loch Broom and Dornoch Firth respectively).
Likewise, the River Tamar, which splits Devon from Cornwall and flows into the English channel, rises only four miles from Cornwall's north coast.
So, on topic, what do we think of the next Speaker market?
There’s a few conventions, such as the main parties taking it in turn, or the new Speaker being from the Opposition benches. Both of which would count in favour of Lindsay Hoyle, who’s already an accomplished and well liked deputy speaker. But not at evens.
JRM might be interested, and could he possibly be put up to it by those opposed to him politically (which includes a fair few in his own party) as a way of neutralising him as a next Tory leader candidate?
Chris Bryant is most famous for posing in his underpants on a gay dating website, as a rule the Speaker should be someone who’s managed to stay off the front pages during their time as an MP.
Harriet Hatemen, probably the worst choice of all.
Small money on JRM for me, but whoever wins will be a mile better than the odious Bercow.
Off topic, the pilots’ forum PPRuNe has a seriously interesting thread running on the Salisbury incident. Lots of commenters there who are ex-military and know how these things go down. https://www.pprune.org/jet-blast/606204-sergei-skripal.html
So, on topic, what do we think of the next Speaker market?
JRM might be interested, and could he possibly be put up to it by those opposed to him politically (which includes a fair few in his own party) as a way of neutralising him as a next Tory leader candidate?
Small money on JRM for me, but whoever wins will be a mile better than the odious Bercow.
I doubt that JRM would consent to being 'neutralised' politically.
So, on topic, what do we think of the next Speaker market?
JRM might be interested, and could he possibly be put up to it by those opposed to him politically (which includes a fair few in his own party) as a way of neutralising him as a next Tory leader candidate?
Small money on JRM for me, but whoever wins will be a mile better than the odious Bercow.
I doubt that JRM would consent to being 'neutralised' politically.
It's hard to think of someone less suited to be speaker than JRM. Oh, perhaps Harriet Harman.
Oh, and Happy Mother's Day to all PB's mothers. And to avoid annoying Mr Dancer, happy non-specific day to you all!
Off topic, the pilots’ forum PPRuNe has a seriously interesting thread running on the Salisbury incident. Lots of commenters there who are ex-military and know how these things go down. https://www.pprune.org/jet-blast/606204-sergei-skripal.html
The lack of fatalities so far might indicate an impure preparation of sarin or tabun. The symptoms of the responding personnel are compatible with low dosage exposures to sarin or tabun. Both agents are absorbed through the skin, which would be consistent with contamination of responders.
One thing that surprised me (because someone walked it in a day): there is only 25 miles between tidal waters on Scotland's west and east coasts: (Loch Broom and Dornoch Firth respectively).
Likewise, the River Tamar, which splits Devon from Cornwall and flows into the English channel, rises only four miles from Cornwall's north coast.
We really are a fractal island.
Even the IoW can make the same claim, at the western end.
So, on topic, what do we think of the next Speaker market?
There’s a few conventions, such as the main parties taking it in turn, or the new Speaker being from the Opposition benches. Both of which would count in favour of Lindsay Hoyle, who’s already an accomplished and well liked deputy speaker. But not at evens.
JRM might be interested, and could he possibly be put up to it by those opposed to him politically (which includes a fair few in his own party) as a way of neutralising him as a next Tory leader candidate?
Chris Bryant is most famous for posing in his underpants on a gay dating website, as a rule the Speaker should be someone who’s managed to stay off the front pages during their time as an MP.
Harriet Hatemen, probably the worst choice of all.
Small money on JRM for me, but whoever wins will be a mile better than the odious Bercow.
JRM is merely an amusement, unsuited to any job with a significant public profile. Certainly as the figurehead for our parliament in the 21st Century he would be a disastrous choice.
Small money on JRM for me, but whoever wins will be a mile better than the odious Bercow.
There I have to disagree. He's no Lenthall or Wetherill, but he tells people when to be quiet and he is actually I think also fairer than people give him credit for. He's not in hock to either party and he's willing to tell the leaders when they're making idiots of themselves.
I think it is also worth remembering the situation he came into. Martin - possibly the worst speaker ever and certainly most blatant Brown-noser [sic] of the government since William Catesby in 1484 - had just been forced out due to his grotesque greed coupled to massive incompetence and some actual fraud among MPs over their expenses in which he was deeply implicated. Just to get through that was an achievement.
Yes, I think his time is about done. But I'm not going to say whoever gets it will be better. Harman, Beckett or Watson would undoubtedly be worse.
I wonder if Hilary Benn might be a candidate. I think he'd make a good speaker.
That must be an old list from Paddy Power, or whoever’s compiled it has only a hazy idea of real possibilities. Several names on there; Douglas Carswell for one, are note even in Parliament.
So, on topic, what do we think of the next Speaker market?
There’s a few conventions, such as the main parties taking it in turn, or the new Speaker being from the Opposition benches. Both of which would count in favour of Lindsay Hoyle, who’s already an accomplished and well liked deputy speaker. But not at evens.
JRM might be interested, and could he possibly be put up to it by those opposed to him politically (which includes a fair few in his own party) as a way of neutralising him as a next Tory leader candidate?
Chris Bryant is most famous for posing in his underpants on a gay dating website, as a rule the Speaker should be someone who’s managed to stay off the front pages during their time as an MP.
Harriet Hatemen, probably the worst choice of all.
Small money on JRM for me, but whoever wins will be a mile better than the odious Bercow.
JRM is merely an amusement, unsuited to any job with a significant public profile. Certainly as the figurehead for our parliament in the 21st Century he would be a disastrous choice.
I sometimes have similar feelings about Corbyn. Then I remind myself there is nothing funny about his being in charge of one of our two major parties.
That must be an old list from Paddy Power, or whoever’s compiled it has only a hazy idea of real possibilities. Several names on there; Douglas Carswell for one, are note even in Parliament.
That must be an old list from Paddy Power, or whoever’s compiled it has only a hazy idea of real possibilities. Several names on there; Douglas Carswell for one, are note even in Parliament.
Nor is Alan Haselhurst. It looks to me as though they've not removed old candidates (I think Carswell was mooted as a possible speaker at one point several years ago).
Off topic, the pilots’ forum PPRuNe has a seriously interesting thread running on the Salisbury incident. Lots of commenters there who are ex-military and know how these things go down. https://www.pprune.org/jet-blast/606204-sergei-skripal.html
The lack of fatalities so far might indicate an impure preparation of sarin or tabun. The symptoms of the responding personnel are compatible with low dosage exposures to sarin or tabun. Both agents are absorbed through the skin, which would be consistent with contamination of responders.
Very interesting, thanks. Let’s hope the policeman still in hospital recovers from his exposure.
I wonder how many people haven't had a spat with their boss at one time or another. Whether this lady was paricularly sensitive we don't know but with just one case of a difficult relationship with an employee in a lifetime of work he clearly wasn't a serial bully. it has to be worrying if future generations are going to grow up without a backbone.
That must be an old list from Paddy Power, or whoever’s compiled it has only a hazy idea of real possibilities. Several names on there; Douglas Carswell for one, are note even in Parliament.
Should have read all the way down TSE’s piece!
Would have been very interesting if Mark Reckless had been on the list...
Small money on JRM for me, but whoever wins will be a mile better than the odious Bercow.
There I have to disagree. He's no Lenthall or Wetherill, but he tells people when to be quiet and he is actually I think also fairer than people give him credit for. He's not in hock to either party and he's willing to tell the leaders when they're making idiots of themselves.
I think it is also worth remembering the situation he came into. Martin - possibly the worst speaker ever and certainly most blatant Brown-noser [sic] of the government since William Catesby in 1484 - had just been forced out due to his grotesque greed coupled to massive incompetence and some actual fraud among MPs over their expenses in which he was deeply implicated. Just to get through that was an achievement.
Yes, I think his time is about done. But I'm not going to say whoever gets it will be better. Harman, Beckett or Watson would undoubtedly be worse.
I wonder if Hilary Benn might be a candidate. I think he'd make a good speaker.
Hmm! Possibly, but, a bit too school masterish rather than a avuncular personality. Can't really see him being able to keep the HoC under control if it gets boisterous.
However, other games are now coming into play about the organisation, policing and control of the HoC. Too many scandals, of which the sexist bullying is the latest, leading to discussions on possible changes to the administration of the House. Might be worth waiting to see who might be a better fit for the job.
So, on topic, what do we think of the next Speaker market?
There’s a few conventions, such as the main parties taking it in turn, or the new Speaker being from the Opposition benches. Both of which would count in favour of Lindsay Hoyle, who’s already an accomplished and well liked deputy speaker. But not at evens.
JRM might be interested, and could he possibly be put up to it by those opposed to him politically (which includes a fair few in his own party) as a way of neutralising him as a next Tory leader candidate?
Chris Bryant is most famous for posing in his underpants on a gay dating website, as a rule the Speaker should be someone who’s managed to stay off the front pages during their time as an MP.
Harriet Hatemen, probably the worst choice of all.
Small money on JRM for me, but whoever wins will be a mile better than the odious Bercow.
There is no convention of Buggins' turn for the office of Speaker.
Since WWII there were three successive Conservative Speakers from the Labour landslide in 1945. From Horace King in 1965 there were alternate Speakers but the essence is that the governing party with a solid majority will take the position.
Betty Boothroyd won with Conservative support against the wishes of the Tory government with a tiny majority. She was succeeded by another Labour MP Michael Martin in the Blair landslide years.
Small money on JRM for me, but whoever wins will be a mile better than the odious Bercow.
There I have to disagree. He's no Lenthall or Wetherill, but he tells people when to be quiet and he is actually I think also fairer than people give him credit for. He's not in hock to either party and he's willing to tell the leaders when they're making idiots of themselves.
I think it is also worth remembering the situation he came into. Martin - possibly the worst speaker ever and certainly most blatant Brown-noser [sic] of the government since William Catesby in 1484 - had just been forced out due to his grotesque greed coupled to massive incompetence and some actual fraud among MPs over their expenses in which he was deeply implicated. Just to get through that was an achievement.
Yes, I think his time is about done. But I'm not going to say whoever gets it will be better. Harman, Beckett or Watson would undoubtedly be worse.
I wonder if Hilary Benn might be a candidate. I think he'd make a good speaker.
+1. Bercow does more than any other speaker to try and get our puerile MPs to behave, and speaks for the public when he names and shames during PMQs. There is no other occupation where people could behave like that and still expect to be in the job the following day.
L'esprit de nos jours demands that it be a woman so all male candidates are probably overpriced. Arglcu probably still hasn't been forgiven by Labour for a) coming at the king and b) missing by a mile. Laing is a Leadsome tribute act. Engels lost her seat so I'm not sure why she's on there. Beckett looks like she could drop dead at any minute. Hoey is too Leaver-y. Ditto Stewart. Harman would be a decent appointment and she's never going to get any cabinet job from JC so it would be a fine end to her career.
So, on topic, what do we think of the next Speaker market?
There’s a few conventions, such as the main parties taking it in turn, or the new Speaker being from the Opposition benches. Both of which would count in favour of Lindsay Hoyle, who’s already an accomplished and well liked deputy speaker. But not at evens.
JRM might be interested, and could he possibly be put up to it by those opposed to him politically (which includes a fair few in his own party) as a way of neutralising him as a next Tory leader candidate?
Chris Bryant is most famous for posing in his underpants on a gay dating website, as a rule the Speaker should be someone who’s managed to stay off the front pages during their time as an MP.
Harriet Hatemen, probably the worst choice of all.
Small money on JRM for me, but whoever wins will be a mile better than the odious Bercow.
There is no convention of Buggins' turn for the office of Speaker.
Since WWII there were three successive Conservative Speakers from the Labour landslide in 1945. From Horace King in 1965 there were alternate Speakers but the essence is that the governing party with a solid majority will take the position.
Betty Boothroyd won with Conservative support against the wishes of the Tory government with a tiny majority. She was succeeded by another Labour MP Michael Martin in the Blair landslide years.
Thanks for the history lesson.
I remember the talk of convention when Martin was appointed, because in many ways his appointment broke with tradition and was seen as part of the Blairite takeover at the time. Was still a little young to care too much when Betty took over in 1992.
She really, really wouldn't. Harman was so useless in her one major government role that even Tony Blair felt he had to sack her. Bearing in mind this is a man who made Margaret Beckett Foreign Secretary after her own party called for her sacking over the Rural Patments agency shambles.
Moreover as twice leader of the Labour Party Harman's ruled out under partisanship conventions.
So, on topic, what do we think of the next Speaker market?
There’s a few conventions, such as the main parties taking it in turn, or the new Speaker being from the Opposition benches. Both of which would count in favour of Lindsay Hoyle, who’s already an accomplished and well liked deputy speaker. But not at evens.
JRM might be interested, and could he possibly be put up to it by those opposed to him politically (which includes a fair few in his own party) as a way of neutralising him as a next Tory leader candidate?
Chris Bryant is most famous for posing in his underpants on a gay dating website, as a rule the Speaker should be someone who’s managed to stay off the front pages during their time as an MP.
Harriet Hatemen, probably the worst choice of all.
Small money on JRM for me, but whoever wins will be a mile better than the odious Bercow.
There is no convention of Buggins' turn for the office of Speaker.
Since WWII there were three successive Conservative Speakers from the Labour landslide in 1945. From Horace King in 1965 there were alternate Speakers but the essence is that the governing party with a solid majority will take the position.
Betty Boothroyd won with Conservative support against the wishes of the Tory government with a tiny majority. She was succeeded by another Labour MP Michael Martin in the Blair landslide years.
Thanks for the history lesson.
I remember the talk of convention when Martin was appointed, because in many ways his appointment broke with tradition and was seen as part of the Blairite takeover at the time. Was still a little young to care too much when Betty took over in 1992.
From your second paragraph you appear not to have learnt the "history lesson". There is no tradition or convention of alternating Speakers.
Take 100 lines :
"I must eat pineapple pizza every Friday night and greet the delivery driver with a rousing rendition of "Ode To Joy" ..
She really, really wouldn't. Harman was so useless in her one major government role that even Tony Blair felt he had to sack her. Bearing in mind this is a man who made Margaret Beckett Foreign Secretary after her own party called for her sacking over the Rural Patments agency shambles.
Moreover as twice leader of the Labour Party Harman's ruled out under partisanship conventions.
Married to somebody on the Labour front bench as well
Forgot to mention in the thread header the voting system used to elect a new Speaker is AV.
Really? I thought they'd revamped the process so it was a straightforward runoff.
AV/the current system was the reform. Which was a bit problematic because it meant changing the way MPs cast their votes. Previous system was just piling through the lobbies voting on individuals until one of them got a majority
Forgot to mention in the thread header the voting system used to elect a new Speaker is AV.
Really? I thought they'd revamped the process so it was a straightforward runoff.
The House of Commons Procedure Committee then re-examined the means of electing a Speaker and recommended a new system that came into effect in 2007 and was first used in June 2009, following the resignation of Michael Martin.
Under the new system, candidates must be nominated by at least twelve members, of whom at least three must be of a different party from the candidate. Each member may nominate no more than one candidate.
The House then votes by secret ballot; an absolute majority (in the UK sense, i.e. more than 50% of the votes cast) is required for victory. If no candidate wins a majority, then the individual with the fewest votes is eliminated, as are any other candidates who receive less than five percent of the votes cast. The House continues to vote, for several rounds if necessary, until one member receives the requisite majority.
Then, the House votes on a formal motion to appoint the member in question to the Speakership. (In the unlikely event that this motion fails, the House must hold a fresh series of ballots on all of the nominees.)
That must be an old list from Paddy Power, or whoever’s compiled it has only a hazy idea of real possibilities. Several names on there; Douglas Carswell for one, are note even in Parliament.
Should have read all the way down TSE’s piece!
Would have been very interesting if Mark Reckless had been on the list...
Bring back wigs. And tights. And the frilly shirt. None of this Bercow supply teacher outfit nonsense.
Shouldn't be Harman. She's been too senior in the Labour Party to avoid allegations of bias, and after the likes of Martin and Bercow it'd be splendid to have a Speaker who didn't favour one side or the other.
She really, really wouldn't. Harman was so useless in her one major government role that even Tony Blair felt he had to sack her. Bearing in mind this is a man who made Margaret Beckett Foreign Secretary after her own party called for her sacking over the Rural Patments agency shambles.
Moreover as twice leader of the Labour Party Harman's ruled out under partisanship conventions.
Married to somebody on the Labour front bench as well
I'd also worry that she seems to have a particularly poor grasp of legal procedure. Was it Harrriet Harman who came out with the 'guilty in the court of public opinion' stuff?
Forgot to mention in the thread header the voting system used to elect a new Speaker is AV.
Really? I thought they'd revamped the process so it was a straightforward runoff.
The House of Commons Procedure Committee then re-examined the means of electing a Speaker and recommended a new system that came into effect in 2007 and was first used in June 2009, following the resignation of Michael Martin.
Under the new system, candidates must be nominated by at least twelve members, of whom at least three must be of a different party from the candidate. Each member may nominate no more than one candidate.
The House then votes by secret ballot; an absolute majority (in the UK sense, i.e. more than 50% of the votes cast) is required for victory. If no candidate wins a majority, then the individual with the fewest votes is eliminated, as are any other candidates who receive less than five percent of the votes cast. The House continues to vote, for several rounds if necessary, until one member receives the requisite majority.
Then, the House votes on a formal motion to appoint the member in question to the Speakership. (In the unlikely event that this motion fails, the House must hold a fresh series of ballots on all of the nominees.)
She really, really wouldn't. Harman was so useless in her one major government role that even Tony Blair felt he had to sack her. Bearing in mind this is a man who made Margaret Beckett Foreign Secretary after her own party called for her sacking over the Rural Patments agency shambles.
Moreover as twice leader of the Labour Party Harman's ruled out under partisanship conventions.
Married to somebody on the Labour front bench as well
I'd also worry that she seems to have a particularly poor grasp of legal procedure. Was it Harrriet Harman who came out with the 'guilty in the court of public opinion' stuff?
Very poor grasp of the law for a QC, most certainly.
She really, really wouldn't. Harman was so useless in her one major government role that even Tony Blair felt he had to sack her. Bearing in mind this is a man who made Margaret Beckett Foreign Secretary after her own party called for her sacking over the Rural Patments agency shambles.
Moreover as twice leader of the Labour Party Harman's ruled out under partisanship conventions.
Married to somebody on the Labour front bench as well
I'd also worry that she seems to have a particularly poor grasp of legal procedure. Was it Harrriet Harman who came out with the 'guilty in the court of public opinion' stuff?
She did, very shocking considering she’s a former Solicitor-General.
Mr. W, ah ha! So, the rumours of PB staff cross-dressing are true!
I can see Mr. Eagles as a Frankenfurter.
Apparently so. All started by Peter the Puntress whose prowess in the art made Danny La Rue and Lily Savage appear like puritans at a League of Decency and Virtue Festival.
Morning all. This is a cry for help. I have an idea for a series of non-partisan thread headers based around the swings at the last election. However, in order to do these, I need to produce some maps. Sadly, my cartographic skills are pretty much non-existent and despite some helpful information from @tlg86 I have to recognise my talents lie elsewhere. Is there someone out there more skilled who would be able to work with me on this?
She really, really wouldn't. Harman was so useless in her one major government role that even Tony Blair felt he had to sack her. Bearing in mind this is a man who made Margaret Beckett Foreign Secretary after her own party called for her sacking over the Rural Patments agency shambles.
Moreover as twice leader of the Labour Party Harman's ruled out under partisanship conventions.
Married to somebody on the Labour front bench as well
Perhaps Harman's old man could follow the example of Lady Howe who famously resigned as head of the Equal Opportunities Commission so her husband could become Chancellor.
F1: intriguingly, Ladbrokes has a race winner market up but no odds. Is this a philosophical statement? A rhetorical pondering of the inherent meaning and value of gambling? Did somebody just forget that odds are required to bet?
In worse news, Sporting Index still has the ineffably rubbish ranking index market but there's no sign of the points markets.
Forgot to mention in the thread header the voting system used to elect a new Speaker is AV.
Really? I thought they'd revamped the process so it was a straightforward runoff.
The House of Commons Procedure Committee then re-examined the means of electing a Speaker and recommended a new system that came into effect in 2007 and was first used in June 2009, following the resignation of Michael Martin.
Under the new system, candidates must be nominated by at least twelve members, of whom at least three must be of a different party from the candidate. Each member may nominate no more than one candidate.
The House then votes by secret ballot; an absolute majority (in the UK sense, i.e. more than 50% of the votes cast) is required for victory. If no candidate wins a majority, then the individual with the fewest votes is eliminated, as are any other candidates who receive less than five percent of the votes cast. The House continues to vote, for several rounds if necessary, until one member receives the requisite majority.
Then, the House votes on a formal motion to appoint the member in question to the Speakership. (In the unlikely event that this motion fails, the House must hold a fresh series of ballots on all of the nominees.)
Mr. W, ah ha! So, the rumours of PB staff cross-dressing are true!
I can see Mr. Eagles as a Frankenfurter.
Apparently so. All started by Peter the Puntress whose prowess in the art made Danny La Rue and Lily Savage appear like puritans at a League of Decency and Virtue Festival.
We all have to keep up with current mores, especially those of us who identify as Jacobite nobility.
One thing that surprised me (because someone walked it in a day): there is only 25 miles between tidal waters on Scotland's west and east coasts: (Loch Broom and Dornoch Firth respectively).
Likewise, the River Tamar, which splits Devon from Cornwall and flows into the English channel, rises only four miles from Cornwall's north coast.
We really are a fractal island.
Even the IoW can make the same claim, at the western end.
The Medina river nearly bisects the Isle of Wight, with the East and West Wight of quite different character. On the Isle all roads go via the notorious Newport roundabout.
She really, really wouldn't. Harman was so useless in her one major government role that even Tony Blair felt he had to sack her. Bearing in mind this is a man who made Margaret Beckett Foreign Secretary after her own party called for her sacking over the Rural Patments agency shambles.
Moreover as twice leader of the Labour Party Harman's ruled out under partisanship conventions.
Married to somebody on the Labour front bench as well
I'd also worry that she seems to have a particularly poor grasp of legal procedure. Was it Harrriet Harman who came out with the 'guilty in the court of public opinion' stuff?
Very poor grasp of the law for a QC, most certainly.
I'm stunned. I never realised she was a QC. I thought she practiced (briefly and without distinction) as a solicitor. Certainly her rambling, often inaccurate and usually incoherent performances at the despatch box don't suggest somebody trained in cross-examination.
Doesn't say much for the legal profession (saving the presence of Messrs Eagles and Meeks) if somebody as awe-inspiringly incompetent as Harman could take silk.
Forgot to mention in the thread header the voting system used to elect a new Speaker is AV.
Really? I thought they'd revamped the process so it was a straightforward runoff.
The House of Commons Procedure Committee then re-examined the means of electing a Speaker and recommended a new system that came into effect in 2007 and was first used in June 2009, following the resignation of Michael Martin.
Under the new system, candidates must be nominated by at least twelve members, of whom at least three must be of a different party from the candidate. Each member may nominate no more than one candidate.
The House then votes by secret ballot; an absolute majority (in the UK sense, i.e. more than 50% of the votes cast) is required for victory. If no candidate wins a majority, then the individual with the fewest votes is eliminated, as are any other candidates who receive less than five percent of the votes cast. The House continues to vote, for several rounds if necessary, until one member receives the requisite majority.
Then, the House votes on a formal motion to appoint the member in question to the Speakership. (In the unlikely event that this motion fails, the House must hold a fresh series of ballots on all of the nominees.)
She really, really wouldn't. Harman was so useless in her one major government role that even Tony Blair felt he had to sack her. Bearing in mind this is a man who made Margaret Beckett Foreign Secretary after her own party called for her sacking over the Rural Patments agency shambles.
Moreover as twice leader of the Labour Party Harman's ruled out under partisanship conventions.
Married to somebody on the Labour front bench as well
I'd also worry that she seems to have a particularly poor grasp of legal procedure. Was it Harrriet Harman who came out with the 'guilty in the court of public opinion' stuff?
Very poor grasp of the law for a QC, most certainly.
I'm stunned. I never realised she was a QC. I thought she practiced (briefly and without distinction) as a solicitor. Certainly her rambling, often inaccurate and usually incoherent performances at the despatch box don't suggest somebody trained in cross-examination.
Doesn't say much for the legal profession (saving the presence of Messrs Eagles and Meeks) if somebody as awe-inspiringly incompetent as Harman could take silk.
From 2001 when she was appointed Solicitor-General.
The Lord Chancellor's Department confirmed that Ms Harman has been appointed a practising, rather than honorary, QC, even though she does not meet the normal criteria for silks:
She really, really wouldn't. Harman was so useless in her one major government role that even Tony Blair felt he had to sack her. Bearing in mind this is a man who made Margaret Beckett Foreign Secretary after her own party called for her sacking over the Rural Patments agency shambles.
Moreover as twice leader of the Labour Party Harman's ruled out under partisanship conventions.
Married to somebody on the Labour front bench as well
I'd also worry that she seems to have a particularly poor grasp of legal procedure. Was it Harrriet Harman who came out with the 'guilty in the court of public opinion' stuff?
Very poor grasp of the law for a QC, most certainly.
I'm stunned. I never realised she was a QC. I thought she practiced (briefly and without distinction) as a solicitor. Certainly her rambling, often inaccurate and usually incoherent performances at the despatch box don't suggest somebody trained in cross-examination.
Doesn't say much for the legal profession (saving the presence of Messrs Eagles and Meeks) if somebody as awe-inspiringly incompetent as Harman could take silk.
From 2001 when she was appointed Solicitor-General.
The Lord Chancellor's Department confirmed that Ms Harman has been appointed a practising, rather than honorary, QC, even though she does not meet the normal criteria for silks:
Morning all. This is a cry for help. I have an idea for a series of non-partisan thread headers based around the swings at the last election. However, in order to do these, I need to produce some maps. Sadly, my cartographic skills are pretty much non-existent and despite some helpful information from @tlg86 I have to recognise my talents lie elsewhere. Is there someone out there more skilled who would be able to work with me on this?
Unfortunately I don't have ArcGIS on my computer at my current work otherwise I could have put something together.
If Bercow is ousted, does he have to resign his seat - or can he take up as a Conservative MP again? That would seem a bit off...
But if Hoyle gets the gig, it presumably helps the Tory's majority? Which may be a reason Labour MPs won't want him....
I don't think even May could contrive to lose a by election in Bercow's constituency.
On a more serious point, I have always thought the Speaker should not have a constituency. Buckingham has effectively been without an MP for nine years, before that Glasgow Springburn/North East was for the same amount of time. Surely it would be better for a Speaker to become MP for the Palace of Westminster and hold a by-election in their former seat so normal constituency life can carry on?
If Bercow is ousted, does he have to resign his seat - or can he take up as a Conservative MP again? That would seem a bit off...
But if Hoyle gets the gig, it presumably helps the Tory's majority? Which may be a reason Labour MPs won't want him....
Convention says he resigns his seat and gets a peerage, but there's nothing stopping him staying on as an MP, on becoming Speaker one gives up one's party affiliation for life, no way will Mrs May let him take the Tory whip.
Hoyle becoming Speaker has no impact on the majority, as a Deputy Speaker will be chosen from the Tory side as the number of Speakers/Deputy Speakers is always 2 from the Blues and 2 from the Reds.
If Bercow is ousted, does he have to resign his seat - or can he take up as a Conservative MP again? That would seem a bit off...
But if Hoyle gets the gig, it presumably helps the Tory's majority? Which may be a reason Labour MPs won't want him....
By convention he takes the Chiltern Hundreds and goes to sit on the red benches, but knowing Bercow he’d probably hang around like a bad smell plotting with Anna Soubry to stop Brexit.
The Speaker has three deputies, who (also by convention) are one from his or her side of the House, and two from the other - presumably to avoid a change in Speaker affecting the Parliamentary arithmetic as none of the four vote in Parliament. https://www.parliament.uk/about/mps-and-lords/principal/deputy-speakers/
If Bercow is ousted, does he have to resign his seat - or can he take up as a Conservative MP again? That would seem a bit off...
But if Hoyle gets the gig, it presumably helps the Tory's majority? Which may be a reason Labour MPs won't want him....
Convention says he resigns his seat and gets a peerage, but there's nothing stopping him staying on as an MP, on becoming Speaker one gives up one's party affiliation for life, no way will Mrs May let him take the Tory whip.
Hoyle becoming Speaker has no impact on the majority, as a Deputy Speaker will be chosen from the Tory side as the number of Speakers/Deputy Speakers is always 2 from the Blues and 2 from the Reds.
Ah yes, forgotten about Deputies. Maybe Sinn Fein could be offered a job?
If Bercow is ousted, does he have to resign his seat - or can he take up as a Conservative MP again? That would seem a bit off...
But if Hoyle gets the gig, it presumably helps the Tory's majority? Which may be a reason Labour MPs won't want him....
Convention says he resigns his seat and gets a peerage, but there's nothing stopping him staying on as an MP, on becoming Speaker one gives up one's party affiliation for life, no way will Mrs May let him take the Tory whip.
Hoyle becoming Speaker has no impact on the majority, as a Deputy Speaker will be chosen from the Tory side as the number of Speakers/Deputy Speakers is always 2 from the Blues and 2 from the Reds.
Unless Labour or the Liberal Democrats gain Buckingham of course.
Seems improbable but then so did Corbyn, Brexit, Trump...
Edit - who was the last Speaker to assume a partisan role in the Commons post-speakership? Do we have to go right back to Addington or was it Manners-Sutton?
Like IanB2 and ydoethur I rate Bercow quite highly and think that the vote of no confidence will get nowhere (like the last attempt), but assuming the premise of his departure:
* Hoyle is clearly the uncontroversial choice. I don't know anyone who dislikes or distrusts him, and quite a lot rate his performance when he's in the chair quite highly. But it does increase the Government's majority by 1 at a time when that might actually matter. * The spirit of the times arguably calls for a woman. Laing would also be a pretty uncontroversial choice. Not sure any of the other women on the list would be, though Harman would obviously send a big message of support for women, whereas Laing hasn't AFAIK expressed many views on gender equality.
Like IanB2 and ydoethur I rate Bercow quite highly and think that the vote of no confidence will get nowhere (like the last attempt), but assuming the premise of his departure:
* Hoyle is clearly the uncontroversial choice. I don't know anyone who dislikes or distrusts him, and quite a lot rate his performance when he's in the chair quite highly. But it does increase the Government's majority by 1 at a time when that might actually matter. * The spirit of the times arguably calls for a woman. Laing would also be a pretty uncontroversial choice. Not sure any of the other women on the list would be, though Harman would obviously send a big message of support for women, whereas Laing hasn't AFAIK expressed many views on gender equality.
Wouldn't the replacement deputy speaker be from the Tory benches, so it would have no impact on the majority? On your second point, hopefully whoever is elected is elected by virtue of their abilities, not their gender.
I see helping to kill West Ham United FC can be added to Boris Johnson’s list of accomplishments :-D
Got in from Hong Kong this morning. The woman on passport control said “Wrlcome home, sir”. It’s never happened to me before. I rather liked it.
You mean you don't use the electronic gates? It's bliss.. you don't have to interact with grumpy border guards.
A former colleague of mine always went through Customs everywhere with a face like thunder. He said he never got stopped. "Not worth the hassle, that one...."
Forgot to mention in the thread header the voting system used to elect a new Speaker is AV.
Really? I thought they'd revamped the process so it was a straightforward runoff.
The House of Commons Procedure Committee then re-examined the means of electing a Speaker and recommended a new system that came into effect in 2007 and was first used in June 2009, following the resignation of Michael Martin.
Under the new system, candidates must be nominated by at least twelve members, of whom at least three must be of a different party from the candidate. Each member may nominate no more than one candidate.
The House then votes by secret ballot; an absolute majority (in the UK sense, i.e. more than 50% of the votes cast) is required for victory. If no candidate wins a majority, then the individual with the fewest votes is eliminated, as are any other candidates who receive less than five percent of the votes cast. The House continues to vote, for several rounds if necessary, until one member receives the requisite majority.
Then, the House votes on a formal motion to appoint the member in question to the Speakership. (In the unlikely event that this motion fails, the House must hold a fresh series of ballots on all of the nominees.)
On topic, I never bet on next Speaker. There’s too much relevant information I don’t know and can never know.
Betting against the Speaker being deposed, however, that’s a very different matter...
I believe it's happened twice - Syr Sion Trefor (Sir John Trevor) over taking bribes in 1695 and Michael Martin over being the most useless Speaker since Catesby the expenses scandal.
Small money on JRM for me, but whoever wins will be a mile better than the odious Bercow.
There I have to disagree. He's no Lenthall or Wetherill, but he tells people when to be quiet and he is actually I think also fairer than people give him credit for. He's not in hock to either party and he's willing to tell the leaders when they're making idiots of themselves.
I think it is also worth remembering the situation he came into. Martin - possibly the worst speaker ever and certainly most blatant Brown-noser [sic] of the government since William Catesby in 1484 - had just been forced out due to his grotesque greed coupled to massive incompetence and some actual fraud among MPs over their expenses in which he was deeply implicated. Just to get through that was an achievement.
Yes, I think his time is about done. But I'm not going to say whoever gets it will be better. Harman, Beckett or Watson would undoubtedly be worse.
I wonder if Hilary Benn might be a candidate. I think he'd make a good speaker.
+1. Bercow does more than any other speaker to try and get our puerile MPs to behave, and speaks for the public when he names and shames during PMQs. There is no other occupation where people could behave like that and still expect to be in the job the following day.
It's just political theater. If the public truly cared about the theater of pmqs being awful our mps would soon stop. You see versions of the theater in local councils, foreign parliaments, all over. I'd prefer a bit less baying and childishness at pmqs, but I think the complaints about how oh so terrible it is gets overblown and histrionic. Bercow's style is just another part of the theater.
Like IanB2 and ydoethur I rate Bercow quite highly and think that the vote of no confidence will get nowhere (like the last attempt), but assuming the premise of his departure:
* Hoyle is clearly the uncontroversial choice. I don't know anyone who dislikes or distrusts him, and quite a lot rate his performance when he's in the chair quite highly. But it does increase the Government's majority by 1 at a time when that might actually matter. * The spirit of the times arguably calls for a woman. Laing would also be a pretty uncontroversial choice. Not sure any of the other women on the list would be, though Harman would obviously send a big message of support for women, whereas Laing hasn't AFAIK expressed many views on gender equality.
Wouldn't the replacement deputy speaker be from the Tory benches, so it would have no impact on the majority? On your second point, hopefully whoever is elected is elected by virtue of their abilities, not their gender.
Moreover how do the spirit of the times even call for it? It's not like we've never had a female speaker, and female mp numbers are, iirc, at their highest ever (albeit not yet close to 50%) so it's not as though there's a glass ceiling to break through with it.
There's bound to be done great female candidates and good luck to them, but I'm not entirely sure how the time speaks to it one way or another.
Harriet Harman is a highly tribal politician (as was Martin) and feminist fundamentalist.That has to put her in a tricky position. People would be looking to see how she treats a Tory mp like Phillip Davies who is critical of modern feminism .She is vulnerable to either being seen as biased against him or trying too hard to not be biased and giving preferential treatment to a Phillip Davies type. The same applies to JRM if he became speaker It is best for a speaker not to be coming into the job with well known diversive views
If Bercow is ousted, does he have to resign his seat - or can he take up as a Conservative MP again? That would seem a bit off...
But if Hoyle gets the gig, it presumably helps the Tory's majority? Which may be a reason Labour MPs won't want him....
Convention says he resigns his seat and gets a peerage, but there's nothing stopping him staying on as an MP, on becoming Speaker one gives up one's party affiliation for life, no way will Mrs May let him take the Tory whip.
Hoyle becoming Speaker has no impact on the majority, as a Deputy Speaker will be chosen from the Tory side as the number of Speakers/Deputy Speakers is always 2 from the Blues and 2 from the Reds.
Unless Labour or the Liberal Democrats gain Buckingham of course.
Seems improbable but then so did Corbyn, Brexit, Trump...
Edit - who was the last Speaker to assume a partisan role in the Commons post-speakership? Do we have to go right back to Addington or was it Manners-Sutton?
Improbable in this definition is about as likely to happen as Spurs now winning the CL this year...
Mr. B, yeah, although for Xi as well, I think. If he makes removing him peacefully impossible, then it'll happen through violence. Qin Xi Huangdi couldn't rule forever, and neither will Xi.
Edited extra bit: well, possibly he'll hang on until he dies, but then there'll be bloodletting over the succession.
Just checked on Wikipedia, remembered that Gove had some connection with Scottish Fishing. Gove and Ruthie continuing in the effort to split the fishing communities from the SNP.
"Gove was born in Edinburgh and originally forenamed Graham by his biological mother;[14] at the age of four months he was adopted by a Labour-supporting family in Aberdeen, where he was brought up.[15] His adoptive father ran a fish processing business; his adoptive mother was a lab assistant at the University of Aberdeen before working at the Aberdeen School for the Deaf.[16]"
Forgot to mention in the thread header the voting system used to elect a new Speaker is AV.
Really? I thought they'd revamped the process so it was a straightforward runoff.
The House of Commons Procedure Committee then re-examined the means of electing a Speaker and recommended a new system that came into effect in 2007 and was first used in June 2009, following the resignation of Michael Martin.
Under the new system, candidates must be nominated by at least twelve members, of whom at least three must be of a different party from the candidate. Each member may nominate no more than one candidate.
The House then votes by secret ballot; an absolute majority (in the UK sense, i.e. more than 50% of the votes cast) is required for victory. If no candidate wins a majority, then the individual with the fewest votes is eliminated, as are any other candidates who receive less than five percent of the votes cast. The House continues to vote, for several rounds if necessary, until one member receives the requisite majority.
Then, the House votes on a formal motion to appoint the member in question to the Speakership. (In the unlikely event that this motion fails, the House must hold a fresh series of ballots on all of the nominees.)
I'm amazed it was more than zero. I wonder if Xi actually wanted a few people to vote against, like dictators rigging their reelection deciding they should get 97% or something, as 98 is too implausible but 96 too tight a finish.
Comments
Likewise, the River Tamar, which splits Devon from Cornwall and flows into the English channel, rises only four miles from Cornwall's north coast.
We really are a fractal island.
There’s a few conventions, such as the main parties taking it in turn, or the new Speaker being from the Opposition benches. Both of which would count in favour of Lindsay Hoyle, who’s already an accomplished and well liked deputy speaker. But not at evens.
JRM might be interested, and could he possibly be put up to it by those opposed to him politically (which includes a fair few in his own party) as a way of neutralising him as a next Tory leader candidate?
Chris Bryant is most famous for posing in his underpants on a gay dating website, as a rule the Speaker should be someone who’s managed to stay off the front pages during their time as an MP.
Harriet Hatemen, probably the worst choice of all.
Small money on JRM for me, but whoever wins will be a mile better than the odious Bercow.
https://www.pprune.org/jet-blast/606204-sergei-skripal.html
Oh, and Happy Mother's Day to all PB's mothers.
And to avoid annoying Mr Dancer, happy non-specific day to you all!
I think it is also worth remembering the situation he came into. Martin - possibly the worst speaker ever and certainly most blatant Brown-noser [sic] of the government since William Catesby in 1484 - had just been forced out due to his grotesque greed coupled to massive incompetence and some actual fraud among MPs over their expenses in which he was deeply implicated. Just to get through that was an achievement.
Yes, I think his time is about done. But I'm not going to say whoever gets it will be better. Harman, Beckett or Watson would undoubtedly be worse.
I wonder if Hilary Benn might be a candidate. I think he'd make a good speaker.
However, other games are now coming into play about the organisation, policing and control of the HoC. Too many scandals, of which the sexist bullying is the latest, leading to discussions on possible changes to the administration of the House. Might be worth waiting to see who might be a better fit for the job.
Since WWII there were three successive Conservative Speakers from the Labour landslide in 1945. From Horace King in 1965 there were alternate Speakers but the essence is that the governing party with a solid majority will take the position.
Betty Boothroyd won with Conservative support against the wishes of the Tory government with a tiny majority. She was succeeded by another Labour MP Michael Martin in the Blair landslide years.
I remember the talk of convention when Martin was appointed, because in many ways his appointment broke with tradition and was seen as part of the Blairite takeover at the time. Was still a little young to care too much when Betty took over in 1992.
Moreover as twice leader of the Labour Party Harman's ruled out under partisanship conventions.
Take 100 lines :
"I must eat pineapple pizza every Friday night and greet the delivery driver with a rousing rendition of "Ode To Joy" ..
Under the new system, candidates must be nominated by at least twelve members, of whom at least three must be of a different party from the candidate. Each member may nominate no more than one candidate.
The House then votes by secret ballot; an absolute majority (in the UK sense, i.e. more than 50% of the votes cast) is required for victory. If no candidate wins a majority, then the individual with the fewest votes is eliminated, as are any other candidates who receive less than five percent of the votes cast. The House continues to vote, for several rounds if necessary, until one member receives the requisite majority.
Then, the House votes on a formal motion to appoint the member in question to the Speakership. (In the unlikely event that this motion fails, the House must hold a fresh series of ballots on all of the nominees.)
https://tinyurl.com/AVIsMagicFPTPIsTragic
Bring back wigs. And tights. And the frilly shirt. None of this Bercow supply teacher outfit nonsense.
Shouldn't be Harman. She's been too senior in the Labour Party to avoid allegations of bias, and after the likes of Martin and Bercow it'd be splendid to have a Speaker who didn't favour one side or the other.
I can see Mr. Eagles as a Frankenfurter.
In worse news, Sporting Index still has the ineffably rubbish ranking index market but there's no sign of the points markets.
*gets coat*
Red kippers for breakfast anyone ?
https://twitter.com/alexmassie/status/972749270016253952?s=21
https://twitter.com/ruthdavidsonmsp/status/972750549471973376?s=21
Doesn't say much for the legal profession (saving the presence of Messrs Eagles and Meeks) if somebody as awe-inspiringly incompetent as Harman could take silk.
Oh, my coat...
The Lord Chancellor's Department confirmed that Ms Harman has been appointed a practising, rather than honorary, QC, even though she does not meet the normal criteria for silks:
https://www.lawgazette.co.uk/news/solicitor-general-harman-goes-on-to-become-a-silk/34155.article
As for 'practising,' she could certainly do with practice...
But if Hoyle gets the gig, it presumably helps the Tory's majority? Which may be a reason Labour MPs won't want him....
Hoyle becoming Speaker has no impact on the majority, as a Deputy Speaker will be chosen from the Tory side as the number of Speakers/Deputy Speakers is always 2 from the Blues and 2 from the Reds.
The Speaker has three deputies, who (also by convention) are one from his or her side of the House, and two from the other - presumably to avoid a change in Speaker affecting the Parliamentary arithmetic as none of the four vote in Parliament.
https://www.parliament.uk/about/mps-and-lords/principal/deputy-speakers/
Seems improbable but then so did Corbyn, Brexit, Trump...
Edit - who was the last Speaker to assume a partisan role in the Commons post-speakership? Do we have to go right back to Addington or was it Manners-Sutton?
* Hoyle is clearly the uncontroversial choice. I don't know anyone who dislikes or distrusts him, and quite a lot rate his performance when he's in the chair quite highly. But it does increase the Government's majority by 1 at a time when that might actually matter.
* The spirit of the times arguably calls for a woman. Laing would also be a pretty uncontroversial choice. Not sure any of the other women on the list would be, though Harman would obviously send a big message of support for women, whereas Laing hasn't AFAIK expressed many views on gender equality.
Betting against the Speaker being deposed, however, that’s a very different matter...
Got in from Hong Kong this morning. The woman on passport control said “Wrlcome home, sir”. It’s never happened to me before. I rather liked it.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-43361276
being the most useless Speaker since Catesbythe expenses scandal.https://www.theredrobin.scot/shock_poll_shows_labour_rapidly_gaining_on_snp
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/nhs-agency-falsely-accuses-more-than-340000-of-prescription-fraud/ar-BBK51RA?li=AAmiR2Z&ocid=spartandhp
I've always thought there's something of the monkfish about Gove....
https://www.bing.com/search?q=welcome+home+peters+and+lee&form=EDGHPT&qs=AS&cvid=23b44d8f20f741adac73534f05405691&cc=GB&setlang=en-US
There's bound to be done great female candidates and good luck to them, but I'm not entirely sure how the time speaks to it one way or another.
People would be looking to see how she treats a Tory mp like Phillip Davies who is critical of modern feminism .She is vulnerable to either being seen as biased against him or trying too hard to not be biased and giving preferential treatment to a Phillip Davies type.
The same applies to JRM if he became speaker
It is best for a speaker not to be coming into the job with well known diversive views
Though Bercow does not like tradition of course.
Edited extra bit: well, possibly he'll hang on until he dies, but then there'll be bloodletting over the succession.
(He's now the hagfish at AgFish...)
"Gove was born in Edinburgh and originally forenamed Graham by his biological mother;[14] at the age of four months he was adopted by a Labour-supporting family in Aberdeen, where he was brought up.[15] His adoptive father ran a fish processing business; his adoptive mother was a lab assistant at the University of Aberdeen before working at the Aberdeen School for the Deaf.[16]"