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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » More want a softer Brexit, a 2nd referendum or Brexit abandone
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » More want a softer Brexit, a 2nd referendum or Brexit abandoned completely than back government’s current strategy
The above from the latest YouGov poll has not received much attention – what voters now say what they want on Brexit. Clearly this will evolve as thing progress.
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The choice was made on June 23rd 2016.
Provided we get a FTA that ends free movement most voters will be satisfied
The Tory Party will rally round it, each convincing they did their bit to prevent a worse (from their perspective) deal.
The Labour Party will spiral into recriminations for letting Brexit happen at all.
Edited extra bit: you can't just add together all those that want option Y and Z as being against option X. By that logic, you can add together those who want X and Z against Y, and X and Y against Z. Or say 86% are against abandoning our departure altogether.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/971735849774862336
As HYUFD pointed out, there is a very clear majority of those expressing a preference to continue with Brexit. That’s what matters.
But all I'm getting from this latest poll is that, despite two years of hysterical noise and predictions of apocalyptic doom from the ultra-remainers, the vast majority of people want democracy to be respected. It suggests that remaining part of the EU has gone from being a minority view to a _fringe_ view, and that there is a plurality of support for the government's current position (and majority support when you add together hard brexit + soft), support that far outweighs the noisy but impotent rumblings of hardcore remainers.
The polling seems to suggest that most people who aren't political wonks obsessed with the topic just want the government of the day to get on with it and secure the best possible outcome that respects the vote.
It also suggests to me that Corbyn is more in tune with the electorate than the majority of his party and those hoping for a Labour pivot to remain are barking up the wrong tree...
Blaming immigrants for lower wages is a no no in their eyes, it is the language of the far right racists.
Apologies. Blame the vast amount of driving I had to do today chasing disparate members of my family for various bits of paper.
Plus facebook groups can change their names, you might like a page about 'Dogs' and the administrator of the page can turn it into a page 'We Love Pineapple on Pizza.'
I'm going to take that job at N.M. Rothschild & Sons in Manchester for the lolz.
In my gambling infancy, I was taught one golden rule - "no one ever went to the poorhouse backing against England in sport" so merci beaucoup, mes amis as another glorious English sporting failure helps pay for Mrs Stodge's Sunday lunch.
Patriotism ? There's a time and a place for it but not when punting. Since the dark days of the 2003 Rugby World Cup when I did my cojones, it's been largely plain sailing and I look forward to the summer's World Cup as another example of glorious profitable failure.
On topic and it's a difficult time - negotiations are continuing and while I'm no supporter of this wretched excuse for a Government and the dismal non-entity who passes for a Prime Minister, I'm happy to allow the process to reach its conclusion and seeing what kind of A50 agreement we get.
As someone has already said, it's unlikely to please everybody - it may not please anybody - but I'm willing to see what is produced. Would I like a vote on the A50 agreement as presented ? Yes, but I know I won't get one because there's no provision for a NO vote - does voting NO mean crashing out without an agreement, negotiating some more or abandoning the whole process ?
Rather as those of us who voted LEAVE on 23/6/16 had many and varied reasons for doing so, those who opt to reject the A50 Agreement will come from various places.
As for the notion an FTA and the end of Freedom of Movement will somehow have us all dancing in the streets and throwing petals at Mrs May's feet, I'll some of what HYUFD is smoking. Immigration is far more than dealing with who wants to come - it is also about who is already here (rightly or wrongly).
Corbynomics will work, only the establishment will stop it in their eyes.
The UK swaps semi-detached for semi-attached. People can live with that,I believe, unlike any of the alternatives. It still sucks though.
I actually thought Conservatives believed in sound financial management so reducing the deficit and paying down the debt seem much more sensible than this ludicrous notion of cutting taxes but for some reason the Telegraph believes we should have a little more money together and sod future generations stuck with our debt interest.
The problem is the Right is as bad as the Left when it comes to economics.
https://twitter.com/simongerman600/status/972547700074930176
Edited extra bit: for grammar.
You could equally argue 86 per cent of those asked didn't think we should stop Brexit.
Edited extra bit: only one that I'd vaguely suggest looking at is:
Drivers: buy Bottas at 21. That's a 1 point loss if he's 4th, and wins if he's 3rd or better.
A Canada style FTA will avoid a deep recession and big tax rises that going straight to WTO terms might lead to
IF you are going to have a system where residency is dependent on having a work permit or visa how is that to be policed ? I don't believe the Government or its supporters have the slightest notion of the number of EU migrants living and working in the black economy.
Support for Remain, March 2018: 14%
Joking aside, surely even you can see how badly this bodes for the inevitable "rejoin" campaign once we're out.
https://twitter.com/ABC/status/972561544365133824
The Isle of Man and Channel Islands have freedom of movement with the Irish Republic but aren't in the EU at present. We can have free movement with any nation in the world if we so wish or not.
We also had customs controls between the UK (including NI) and the Irish free state/Republic from 1923 to 1992. Seemed to work fine - 40 of those years were pre the troubles. Not sure why we couldn't make something similar work again with modern technology.
Hmm... not sure that’s a very adult comment on a politics site...
EDIT - I see its changed already
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/03/10/graduate-sues-anglia-ruskin-university-claiming-ended-mickey/
So his rules
My interpretation of this poll is very different to OGH. To me, it suggests that remain is becoming a fringe view and most people, remain or leave in 2016, just want the government to get on with it. But he's also right that a greater number (44%) can be found in a coalition of soft leavers, second referendumers, and hardcore remainers. There is an opportunity here for Labour for example if their policy was to offer a second referendum on remain/leave/soft Brexit that could see them pick up votes. However I suspect that this kind of transparent fence-sitting would be seen a mile off by all sides.
Point 2: As I continually point out, this is not a politics site, it's a political betting site. If a purely politics site is required, one may be found elsewhere.
Point 3: Mike is the owner of the site, so it's pub rules
LibDems on NINE???
Seriously, you haven't lived until you've got into an argument about nacelle pylons...
Just as her internal opposition within the party is atomized, so opposition to her vision of Brexit is divided. Top stuff Mrs May.
Labour 43
Conservatives 40
Lib Dems 8
Ipsos Mori had:
Labour 42
Conservatives 39
Lib Dems 9
But here's what Ipsos Mori had this month:
Conservatives: 43
Labour: 42
Lib Dems: 6
I wonder if there have been any methodology changes in either poll. It seems strange that one picked up a 4 pp increase in the Tory share and the other picked up a 3 pp decrease in the Tory vote.
Hurrah for the people.
The real question is, in ten years time, will remainers be like Doctor Who fans, eventually getting their beloved show back? Or Babylon 5 fans - a lost tribe of ultras slowly sinking into obscurity?
Looking forward to Series 2.
As for Discovery, I was concerned they rushed to the Mirror Universe so quickly. It showed a lack of ideas to this observer.
Taxes need to (and will) rise a bit over the next 10 years, whichever party is in power.
I enjoyed Discovery, but I'm still trying to work out how it fits in with the TOS timeline.
It's not glamourous but my perception is people are starting slowly to listen to us again as the memory of Coalition fades - the Party's policy on Brexit remains a problem though I sense some nuance developing from Cable away from slavish adherence to the pre-23/6/16 REMAIN position.
Asking serious questions about the future economic relationship with the EU is entirely legitimate and I'm yet to be fully convinced we will find as advantageous trade terms outside the EU than as part of the Customs Union. Protectionism or wanting what's best for your own country's industry isn't, I suspect, a wholly American trait.
The Italy game should have been a pointer...