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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Warren makes first move for a possible 2020 White House bid

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  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    The Times have managed it with their paywall.

    The trick is to have comprehensive coverage written by people who know what they are talking about.

    Last summer The Sunday Telegraph wrote on their front page about a stalking horse challenge to topple Mrs May and that many MPs were backing it.

    Under the Tory rules since 1997 there's no longer an option of a stalking horse challenge, it is a simple vote of confidence.
    The only online edition I subscribe to is the FT. I used to read the actual Telegraph, but tbh, if I want to read about how the EU is doomed, I don't need to pay AEP, I can just come here instead.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,030
    FF43 said:

    Not sure. I think decent content more essential for a newspaper. The question is how you monetise it.

    Of course it is. But that would require the Telegraph starting from scratch.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,396
    Mr. Eagles, ha. Even if I wanted to, one suspects the prices would require me to sell several internal organs to buy anything :p
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,030
    rcs1000 said:

    I'd be very surprised if he stood. Less than 20% chance, I'd wager.
    @rcs1000, £20 at those odds, if you're interested ?
  • Mr. Eagles, ha. Even if I wanted to, one suspects the prices would require me to sell several internal organs to buy anything :p

    Nah, the prices are reasonable, and you don't have to buy anything to drive the car.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,600

    I've sprinkled a few quid around the Dems market so far. Biden, Kirsten Gillibrand, Warren, Cory Booker, Kamil Harris, Joe Kennedy.

    Not much of a betting strategy at this stage. My latest gut thinking is it will be Biden, but no hard evidence for that really. Very early days.
    Biden is the best Democratic candidate but the primary voters will likely pick Warren or Sanders.

    Joe Kennedy May run for Senate in 2020 and try for President in 2024 if Trump is re elected or Sanders or Biden win and only serve 1 term
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,030
    edited March 2018

    F1: the McLaren has broken down again. Leaking oil, apparently.

    Has Alonso become F1's Jonah ?

    (Maybe McLaren ought to have kept the Honda engine and given him to Torro Rosso instead...)
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    Maybe I underestimate foreign politics in regard to the USA but I would have thought it would have rested on other things, though that would get him a lot of credit.
    Sky news were working very hard last night to say it was a mistake, etc - no credit to Trump at all.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,396
    Mr. B, karma for the Piquet crash win?
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    John_M said:

    'Let's Make Twitter Less Hysterical'.
    Good luck with that
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,626
    Top tip time:

    Telegraph readers - If you are more interested in cartoons than the news, try reading Viz rather than The Telegraph.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,592
    Nigelb said:

    Has Alonso become F1's Jonah ?

    (Maybe McLaren ought to have kept the Honda engine and given him to Torro Rosso instead...)
    He appears to be a great driver but a total fool in most other respects.

    He was successful for so long as he was still very young and not in control. As soon as he started to make his own career decisions, everything has been a mess for him and any team connected to him, for over a decade now.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,626
    On topic. If the Dems want to appeal to blue-collar Democrats who leaked away to Trump last time, they could do the unthinkable and have a blue-collar Democrat as their candidate, rather than a latte-sipping liberal.
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    John_M said:

    The only online edition I subscribe to is the FT. I used to read the actual Telegraph, but tbh, if I want to read about how the EU is doomed, I don't need to pay AEP, I can just come here instead.
    For ages, I've been looking for a right of centre alternative to the Telegraph. The only option I can think of is the Times but it's gone downhill over the last couple of years. Any suggestions?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,030
    Floater said:
    One clearly can't declare whether or not these allegations are absolutely true.

    But... one thing which particularly irritated me was the statement from his office that the Speaker "absolutely refutes" the allegations.
    To refute is to demonstrate beyond a reasonable doubt that something is not true; to prove it wrong. He has done no such thing.

    It also irks me that he regularly uses language in the chair when addressing individual MPs which he would rule out of order were they to use when addressing each other. A similar (thought less serious) abuse of position.
  • Visitors to the Meadowhall shopping centre can now enjoy a more powerful kind of retail experience, with the imminent opening of the latest Mercedes-Benz Pop Up shop in Sheffield. The store will open on Thursday 22 February - 4 April 2018.

    Designed to bring Mercedes-Benz’s stunning cars to the public in a new and innovative way, the temporary installation - which is open until 4 April - features some of the brand’s most popular models, allowing customers to experience the cars up close, while also finding out more about the rest of the award-winning Mercedes-Benz range.

    For those looking for something they can carry home, a range of Mercedes-Benz and smart Collection items will be available, from keyrings to baseball caps to stylish jackets and sleek luggage. Motorsport fans are also catered for, with a Formula One full size simulator on display, as well as merchandise from the MERCEDES AMG PETRONAS Formula One range.

    Alongside the latest new and approved used vehicles the Pop Up shop is playing host to the latest smart models, including the new smart forfour. The rest of the exciting Mercedes-Benz range can be explored in an immersive digital environment using in-store car configurator tables.

    https://www.jct600.co.uk/news/mercedes-benz-opens-pop-up-shop-in-meadowhall/15805/newsdetail.aspx
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,647
    Ishmael_Z said:

    I am surprised they don't paywall him, he gets them publicity but that doesn't translate into money (I seem to see his cartoon, for free, almost every day).
    Plus they read it out on the Today prog most days.

    I can't see how anyone can complain when a right wing paper espousing free market economics pays a top market rate for its talent.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    Blue_rog said:

    For ages, I've been looking for a right of centre alternative to the Telegraph. The only option I can think of is the Times but it's gone downhill over the last couple of years. Any suggestions?
    The Guardian has the best journalism. I'm serious. It's also an effective echo chamber prophylaxis. My wife subscribes; I leech.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    Top tip time:

    Telegraph readers - If you are more interested in cartoons than the news, try reading Viz rather than The Telegraph.

    Excellent advice! The intellectual content is probably much the same :D
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    HYUFD said:

    Odds do not favour the Democrats beating Trump, he is a first time President whose party has also had only 1 term in the White House and could steamroller over a younger candidate.

    In fact the last candidate to beat a 1 term President after only 4 years of his party out of the Oval Office was Reagan in 1980 who was 69 and had narrowly lost the 1976 GOP primaries to Ford who then went on to lose narrowly Carter. On that basis Sanders might be the Democrats best bet given his narrow 2016 prinary loss to Hillary and her narrow general election loss to Trump
    The only possible response to this post

    https://xkcd.com/1122/
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    John_M said:

    The Guardian has the best journalism. I'm serious. It's also an effective echo chamber prophylaxis. My wife subscribes; I leech.
    THE GRAUNIAD!!!!!! Really? A right of centre newspaper? My wife also subscribes and she'd be in hysterics hearing that description.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,179

    Excellent advice! The intellectual content is probably much the same :D
    The letters page makes more sense that's for sure.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    John_M said:

    The Guardian has the best journalism. I'm serious. It's also an effective echo chamber prophylaxis. My wife subscribes; I leech.
    right of center? guffaw.

    It's the most read paper at the beeb - that hotbed of right of center views

    oh my aching sides
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,179

    On topic. If the Dems want to appeal to blue-collar Democrats who leaked away to Trump last time, they could do the unthinkable and have a blue-collar Democrat as their candidate, rather than a latte-sipping liberal.

    :+1:
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Ishmael_Z said:

    I am surprised they don't paywall him, he gets them publicity but that doesn't translate into money (I seem to see his cartoon, for free, almost every day).
    Matt's cartoon online will mean more views, which might indirectly be monetised. Certainly the Telegraph should know, because it is very easy to find out, how much difference the presence or absence of the cartoon makes -- both online and in print.

    There is also the matter of soft power. The paper gains from iconic content, as does its proprietor. (Taken to extremes, this is probably why the posh papers exist at all as they have made losses for much of their existence, depending on cross-subsidy and deep pockets.)

    Old hands at the paper might remember 20 or so years ago when Alex was poached *by* the Telegraph.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    It's all about context.

    Whilst there is a gender pay gap in our favour is that

    1) We pay around 5% more than the average sector, and 8% more than the North West average

    2) We have a generous holiday package, 28 days plus stats, and 1 day a year extra for every full year you've served (capped at 10)

    3) Free creche and nursery services

    4) Flexible working

    5) Generous bonus packages

    6) A range of discounts for the staff

    7) Everyone is on above the living wage.

    8) The lower paid staff get a £150 gift card each November.
    All very nice GIMMICKS. The test is very simple. Do you pay men and women the same salary for the same job?

    Discounts, holidays etc are not salary even if HMRC taxes them as benefits-in-kind.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,030

    Mr. B, karma for the Piquet crash win?

    Perhaps.
    Vandoorne managed 151 laps yesterday, without incident....
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Visitors to the Meadowhall shopping centre can now enjoy a more powerful kind of retail experience, with the imminent opening of the latest Mercedes-Benz Pop Up shop in Sheffield. The store will open on Thursday 22 February - 4 April 2018.

    Designed to bring Mercedes-Benz’s stunning cars to the public in a new and innovative way, the temporary installation - which is open until 4 April - features some of the brand’s most popular models, allowing customers to experience the cars up close, while also finding out more about the rest of the award-winning Mercedes-Benz range.

    For those looking for something they can carry home, a range of Mercedes-Benz and smart Collection items will be available, from keyrings to baseball caps to stylish jackets and sleek luggage. Motorsport fans are also catered for, with a Formula One full size simulator on display, as well as merchandise from the MERCEDES AMG PETRONAS Formula One range.

    Alongside the latest new and approved used vehicles the Pop Up shop is playing host to the latest smart models, including the new smart forfour. The rest of the exciting Mercedes-Benz range can be explored in an immersive digital environment using in-store car configurator tables.

    https://www.jct600.co.uk/news/mercedes-benz-opens-pop-up-shop-in-meadowhall/15805/newsdetail.aspx

    Will there be grid girls?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    edited March 2018
    Floater said:

    right of center? guffaw.

    It's the most read paper at the beeb - that hotbed of right of center views

    oh my aching sides
    He didn’t say right of centre - it’s a prophylactic for right of centre echo chambers with good journalism. I enjoy reading it, even if they are wronger than a hedgehog who tried to cross the road to Wrongville
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    edited March 2018
    Floater said:

    right of center? guffaw.

    It's the most read paper at the beeb - that hotbed of right of center views

    oh my aching sides
    Read my post more carefully. If you're particularly partisan, then knowing thine enemy is always useful. In the Internet age our great challenge is not simply grazing content that confirms our biases. It's one of the reasons I come here. Lefties should try the Telegraph, or if they're strong, the Mail. If they want to truly taste the madness, the Express.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,179

    I made that point back in January.

    The Democrats might not have the votes to convict but politically it might be helpful for them if the GOP vote to clear Trump.

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2018/01/07/betting-on-the-year-of-trumps-impeachment/
    :+1:
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,139
    FF43 said:

    Not sure. I think decent content more essential for a newspaper. The question is how you monetise it.

    I think the Tele has to get some decent content before worrying about monetising it.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Nigelb said:

    One clearly can't declare whether or not these allegations are absolutely true.

    But... one thing which particularly irritated me was the statement from his office that the Speaker "absolutely refutes" the allegations.
    To refute is to demonstrate beyond a reasonable doubt that something is not true; to prove it wrong. He has done no such thing.

    It also irks me that he regularly uses language in the chair when addressing individual MPs which he would rule out of order were they to use when addressing each other. A similar (thought less serious) abuse of position.
    There have been several stories over the years - plus having someone painted out of a picture dare I say it, paints it's own picture
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    First, they came for the shortbread.....then they came for the aircraft carriers......

    https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/the-curious-case-of-carrier-naming-outrage/
  • RhubarbRhubarb Posts: 359

    Visitors to the Meadowhall shopping centre can now enjoy a more powerful kind of retail experience, with the imminent opening of the latest Mercedes-Benz Pop Up shop in Sheffield. The store will open on Thursday 22 February - 4 April 2018.

    Designed to bring Mercedes-Benz’s stunning cars to the public in a new and innovative way, the temporary installation - which is open until 4 April - features some of the brand’s most popular models, allowing customers to experience the cars up close, while also finding out more about the rest of the award-winning Mercedes-Benz range.

    For those looking for something they can carry home, a range of Mercedes-Benz and smart Collection items will be available, from keyrings to baseball caps to stylish jackets and sleek luggage. Motorsport fans are also catered for, with a Formula One full size simulator on display, as well as merchandise from the MERCEDES AMG PETRONAS Formula One range.

    Alongside the latest new and approved used vehicles the Pop Up shop is playing host to the latest smart models, including the new smart forfour. The rest of the exciting Mercedes-Benz range can be explored in an immersive digital environment using in-store car configurator tables.

    https://www.jct600.co.uk/news/mercedes-benz-opens-pop-up-shop-in-meadowhall/15805/newsdetail.aspx

    It's still Meadowhall tho'.
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
    Charles said:

    He didn’t say right of centre - it’s a prophylactic for right of centre echo chambers with good journalism. I enjoy reading it, even if they are wronger than a hedgehog who tried to cross the road to Wrongville
    The Guardian has become more and more of a partisan outlet, deliberately misrepresenting sides it disagrees with or omitting inconvenient information. The New Statesman is far better as an objective source from the centre left.

    Of course both are far better than the Independent, which has become the equivalent of Buzzfeed clickbait.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Don't say it too loudly, and it'll certainlt send the chattering classes into a tither, but what if, what if..

    'Trump was right' (on this)
    He has also played a blinder on gun control; the two-pronged attack from him and big businesses has done 100 times as much as Barry "Bump stock" Obama ever did to make serious progress look possible. And that is true even if nothing specific comes of it/he didn't mean it/he says some other, contradictory things about it.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/28/us/politics/trump-gun-control.html
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    John_M said:

    Read my post more carefully. If you're particularly partisan, then knowing thine enemy is always useful. In the Internet age our great challenge is not simply grazing content that confirms our biases. It's one of the reasons I come here. Lefties should try the Telegraph, or if they're strong, the Mail. If they want to taste the madness, the Express.
    The Guardian and FT do seem to be the only newspapers left. The other mainstream "newspapers" appear to be little more than click-bait as far as the online versions are concerned and I never waste my money buying the print versions.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,440
    Looking at today's economic data the most interesting thing to me is the large downward revision in the 2017 trade deficit.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/bulletins/uktrade/january2018

    This should mean that in 2017 the trade deficit was the lowest as a percentage of GDP of any year since 1998.

    We'll have to wait until the GDP report at the end of March to have that confirmed or not.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,559

    All very nice GIMMICKS. The test is very simple. Do you pay men and women the same salary for the same job?

    Discounts, holidays etc are not salary even if HMRC taxes them as benefits-in-kind.
    How many people actually have the exact same job - with the exact same experience.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,559
    Rhubarb said:

    It's still Meadowhall tho'.
    And have you see how many nearly new / unregistered diesel Mercedes are currently sitting unsold.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,381

    Looking at today's economic data the most interesting thing to me is the large downward revision in the 2017 trade deficit.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/bulletins/uktrade/january2018

    This should mean that in 2017 the trade deficit was the lowest as a percentage of GDP of any year since 1998.

    We'll have to wait until the GDP report at the end of March to have that confirmed or not.

    I would have thought would take growth in Q4 back to 0.5%.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    Looking at today's economic data the most interesting thing to me is the large downward revision in the 2017 trade deficit.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/bulletins/uktrade/january2018

    This should mean that in 2017 the trade deficit was the lowest as a percentage of GDP of any year since 1998.

    We'll have to wait until the GDP report at the end of March to have that confirmed or not.

    You'd have thought with all this hype around big data and AI that ONS could issue its statistics with a built-in fudge factor to cover the inevitable revision.
  • RhubarbRhubarb Posts: 359
    eek said:

    And have you see how many nearly new / unregistered diesel Mercedes are currently sitting unsold.
    That's a privilege I have yet to experience.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,794
    Lol, the commission letter about the city shows exactly why we need to get out of their protection racket.
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
    Ishmael_Z said:

    He has also played a blinder on gun control; the two-pronged attack from him and big businesses has done 100 times as much as Barry "Bump stock" Obama ever did to make serious progress look possible. And that is true even if nothing specific comes of it/he didn't mean it/he says some other, contradictory things about it.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/28/us/politics/trump-gun-control.html
    Both him and big business were forced into their position by the brave survivors of the Florida attack. For high school students they absolutely mastered framing the debate for the national media. The NRA has also been kneecapped as a force after the revelations of funnelling Russian money.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,139

    Looking at today's economic data the most interesting thing to me is the large downward revision in the 2017 trade deficit.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/bulletins/uktrade/january2018

    This should mean that in 2017 the trade deficit was the lowest as a percentage of GDP of any year since 1998.

    We'll have to wait until the GDP report at the end of March to have that confirmed or not.

    Great to see Scotland punching above its weight, as I'm sure all PBers will agree.

    https://twitter.com/BBCDouglasF/status/971788182131036161
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,966
    edited March 2018

    Looking at today's economic data the most interesting thing to me is the large downward revision in the 2017 trade deficit.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/bulletins/uktrade/january2018

    This should mean that in 2017 the trade deficit was the lowest as a percentage of GDP of any year since 1998.

    We'll have to wait until the GDP report at the end of March to have that confirmed or not.

    Not surprising given the restraint on consumption and the increase in production. Encouraging trends but a long way to go.

    @SeanF Agreed. I was very surprised by the downward revision in the first place.
    Edit, back of a fag packet computation: economy = approx. £2trn. 1% =£20bn. 0.1% =£2bn. Trade revisal exceeds £2bn.
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516

    :+1:
    Even if they gained the Senate, it would not be enough to convict. TSE is right that it is in their interest to tie the whole Republican Party to Trump as closely as possible, so they can't distance themselves from him after 2020.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,667
    Blue_rog said:



    For ages, I've been looking for a right of centre alternative to the Telegraph. The only option I can think of is the Times but it's gone downhill over the last couple of years. Any suggestions?

    The FT? Readership is right of centre, I assume, though the editorial line is harder to pin down (which is a good thing IMO - even though I usually agree with the Guardian I'd rather they were less predictable). If business and economics aren't your thing then it's a bit thin (though the arts section is better than one might think), but generally its articles are more judicious than the Telegraph.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    eek said:

    How many people actually have the exact same job - with the exact same experience.
    Exactly! We are all unique snowflakes -- oh, hold on.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,647
    Ishmael_Z said:

    He has also played a blinder on gun control; the two-pronged attack from him and big businesses has done 100 times as much as Barry "Bump stock" Obama ever did to make serious progress look possible. And that is true even if nothing specific comes of it/he didn't mean it/he says some other, contradictory things about it.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/28/us/politics/trump-gun-control.html
    The very article you quote says how Obama pushed hard for the bill in question, but that it was filibustered away by Republicans.
  • Ishmael_Z said:

    Will there be grid girls?
    There weren’t any when I visited yesterday.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    The FT? Readership is right of centre, I assume, though the editorial line is harder to pin down (which is a good thing IMO - even though I usually agree with the Guardian I'd rather they were less predictable). If business and economics aren't your thing then it's a bit thin (though the arts section is better than one might think), but generally its articles are more judicious than the Telegraph.
    The FT is like the Sun. All the non-financial news is there, summarised in nice short paragraphs.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,966

    Great to see Scotland punching above its weight, as I'm sure all PBers will agree.

    https://twitter.com/BBCDouglasF/status/971788182131036161
    Good news indeed, especially when the problems with the Forties oil pipeline at the end of the year is taken into account.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    The FT is like the Sun. All the non-financial news is there, summarised in nice short paragraphs.
    Its coverage of the Kardashians is, in fairness, woeful. For that we must turn to the Mail. Essential reading.
  • HHemmeligHHemmelig Posts: 617
    TOPPING said:


    The very article you quote says how Obama pushed hard for the bill in question, but that it was filibustered away by Republicans.

    Yep. Most presidents only really have their first two years to get anything substantial done before they lose control of one or both houses of congress in the mid terms. By necessity Obama spent his first two years focusing on the stimulus package to prevent a second great depression and on Obamacare. By the time he had any time to spend on gun control the Democrats had lost the house and the measures could be blocked by the Republicans.

    For the same reason Trump will probably find it much harder to get anything done from next January onwards.

  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    TOPPING said:

    The very article you quote says how Obama pushed hard for the bill in question, but that it was filibustered away by Republicans.
    If gun control is going to happen it either needs the Republicans or an immensely powerful democrat party. Between Obamacare and attempts on gun control some on the right thought Obama was some kind of anti christ.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,615
    Elliot said:

    Both him and big business were forced into their position by the brave survivors of the Florida attack. For high school students they absolutely mastered framing the debate for the national media. The NRA has also been kneecapped as a force after the revelations of funnelling Russian money.
    I think you might be calling time on the political influence of the NRA just a little early there...
  • HHemmeligHHemmelig Posts: 617



    The FT? Readership is right of centre, I assume

    By stereotype yes....but I refer you to the data on how newspaper readers voted in GE 2017 which was I think posted on here recently. From memory the FT readers split 40% Con, 39% Lab. That 39% of the readers of the FT were prepared to vote for Jeremy Corbyn absolutely astonished me and does show the extent to which the Tories are now disliked in some metropolitan business circles.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,615

    If gun control is going to happen it either needs the Republicans or an immensely powerful democrat party. Between Obamacare and attempts on gun control some on the right thought Obama was some kind of anti christ.
    All the Republicans can agree on is tax cuts and even that was a struggle.
    They are not going to enact gun control any time soon.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    DavidL said:

    Not surprising given the restraint on consumption and the increase in production. Encouraging trends but a long way to go.

    @SeanF Agreed. I was very surprised by the downward revision in the first place.
    Edit, back of a fag packet computation: economy = approx. £2trn. 1% =£20bn. 0.1% =£2bn. Trade revisal exceeds £2bn.
    Most of the revision was in December. Most of our imports are made in October/November for the Xmas rush right? So it's a big revision in a medium sort of a number.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,794
    I'd be surprised if we don't get a revision to 0.6%, given the data we've had.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,163
    HYUFD said:

    Odds do not favour the Democrats beating Trump, he is a first time President whose party has also had only 1 term in the White House and could steamroller over a younger candidate.

    In fact the last candidate to beat a 1 term President after only 4 years of his party out of the Oval Office was Reagan in 1980 who was 69 and had narrowly lost the 1976 GOP primaries to Ford who then went on to lose narrowly Carter. On that basis Sanders might be the Democrats best bet given his narrow 2016 prinary loss to Hillary and her narrow general election loss to Trump
    Sanders would be a disastrous choice. He appeals to a certain demographic but it's not one you can build an election-winning strategy around. he might be able to win back votes in the Rust Belt, playing to disenchantment with the establishment but he'll not win centrist independents. He's also far too easy for Trump to label as Commie Sanders. and I'm not sure that his campaigning style is as good as some have given him credit for - granted, it's similar to Trump's in sticking to a narrow core message, and Trump's worked, but that was down to a large extent to chance.

    And that 'chance' was called Hillary: a thoroughly useless campaigner with more baggage than Terminal 5, who Trump only just beat. Any half-decent Democrat ought to be able to win back the White House against a man who has regularly plumbed new depths of unpopularity. But Sanders isn't half-decent; he's a one-trick pony. He'll also be 79 come polling day in 2020.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited March 2018
    Blue_rog said:

    For ages, I've been looking for a right of centre alternative to the Telegraph. The only option I can think of is the Times but it's gone downhill over the last couple of years. Any suggestions?
    I think it's shocking how partisan all of the newspapers have become compared to just a few years ago. There's very little nuance in any of them these days. I remember when the Independent tried to be balanced between Conservative and Labour.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,396
    Mr. JS, broadcast media has declined dramatically in recent years too.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    HHemmelig said:

    By stereotype yes....but I refer you to the data on how newspaper readers voted in GE 2017 which was I think posted on here recently. From memory the FT readers split 40% Con, 39% Lab. That 39% of the readers of the FT were prepared to vote for Jeremy Corbyn absolutely astonished me and does show the extent to which the Tories are now disliked in some metropolitan business circles.
    From 'All Our War', one of Cameron's great worries was the wealthy with 'no skin in the game' who could vote Leave, with no compunction.

    There's a certain level of affluence that pretty much immunises people from consequences.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    John_M said:

    From 'All Our War', one of Cameron's great worries was the wealthy with 'no skin in the game' who could vote Leave, with no compunction.

    There's a certain level of affluence that pretty much immunises people from consequences.
    With a direct correlation to the willingness of that person to label anyone arguing in favour of Remain as being part of the elite.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,396
    Mr. M, applies at the lower end too. If your situation is terrible and people warn that leaving the EU will make things worse economically, it may be tempting to just laugh.

    It'd be interesting to see a breakdown, perhaps by deciles, of how groups by wealth voted. I'd guess the top and bottom preferred to leave and the middle was more for remain, because they had something to lose but not enough cash to weather a storm. [Obviously, economic considerations are just one factor and others were at play too].
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    With a direct correlation to the willingness of that person to label anyone arguing in favour of Remain as being part of the elite.
    One of the oddities of our time. Even billionaires rail about the 'elite'. Presumably an updating of the zeitgeist given we needed to replace 'fairies'.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,396
    F1: gearbox problems for Renault today.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,396
    edited March 2018
    Mr. M, nothing new. Julius Caesar, hardly born in poverty, was the effective leader of what today we'd call the Popular Party.

    Edited extra bit: F1: Haas times looking good. But seems a little odd.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,647
    HHemmelig said:

    By stereotype yes....but I refer you to the data on how newspaper readers voted in GE 2017 which was I think posted on here recently. From memory the FT readers split 40% Con, 39% Lab. That 39% of the readers of the FT were prepared to vote for Jeremy Corbyn absolutely astonished me and does show the extent to which the Tories are now disliked in some metropolitan business circles.
    Wasn't there a famous incident when Norman Tebbit accused the FT of being communists and it turned out that he was more or less correct. Nothing on google maybe I'm misremembering.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,647

    With a direct correlation to the willingness of that person to label anyone arguing in favour of Remain as being part of the elite.
    And then leaving the country.

    :wink:
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    Lots of fun to be had over NHS pay in the coming months,thanks to the Tories adding on strings to the pay offer.It is always strings that cause the trouble and the unions will force employers of the need to cut the strings out of the deal."No Strings" campaigns are part of most NHS unions' reportoire and can be a focal point to mobilise support for the NHS generally.
    I would not expect the trade union response to be to lay down and have their tummies tickled by this government.#NoStrings
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited March 2018

    F1: gearbox problems for Renault today.

    Thanks, Morris. Great update. On the edge of seat for more, hopefully coolant-related, gossip!
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038
    HHemmelig said:

    By stereotype yes....but I refer you to the data on how newspaper readers voted in GE 2017 which was I think posted on here recently. From memory the FT readers split 40% Con, 39% Lab. That 39% of the readers of the FT were prepared to vote for Jeremy Corbyn absolutely astonished me and does show the extent to which the Tories are now disliked in some metropolitan business circles.
    I'm not surprised. In the 1990s, the FT said 'vote Labour' and earlier had supported anti-Thatcher Tories. I've always thought of it as middle of the road/liberal/bourgeois, as near to the Guardian as the Torygraph. Historically the Guardian was more Liberal than Labour.

    My only spending goes on Private Eye. The current issue has news on just two pages of

    May's hypocritical conduct on the Worboys case
    Selmayr's attempt to turn himself from a civil servant into a politician
    Barnier's plan to become President of the Commission (he'd sack Selmayr)
    UNITE's desperate attempt to keep McCluskey in post
    and more.

    It's invaluable. Otherwise I've been known to read most of the sites without a paywall including the Washington Post and NY Times.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    Off topic: my most visited news site is 'Die Welt'

    http://www.dw.com/en/top-stories/s-9097
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    rkrkrk said:

    All the Republicans can agree on is tax cuts and even that was a struggle.
    They are not going to enact gun control any time soon.
    No, but it's a zeitgeisty thing. It feels, for the first time, as if we might be only two or three major atrocities away from serious reform.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    John_M said:

    The only online edition I subscribe to is the FT. I used to read the actual Telegraph, but tbh, if I want to read about how the EU is doomed, I don't need to pay AEP, I can just come here instead.
    Think yourself lucky. Put yourself in the shoes of a Labour voting Leaver who used to rely on the Guardian and the Independent/i as their main source of news (more the latter than the former as the Guardian has too much of an agenda). Now you can't pick them up without having every piece of news reported purely through a blatantly Europhile prism.

    It's got to the point where I need to take out an online subscription to the Telegraph just to get an alternative point of view. For someone on the political left, that's the equivalent of having to live for three months in a brown paper bag in a septic tank, get up at six o'clock in the morning, clean the bag, eat a crust of stale bread, go to work down mill for fourteen hours a day week in-week out. etc etc

    Reading the EU threads on this site isn't much better. Almost every one is written by a Remainer, even if the comments are more balanced.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780

    Think yourself lucky. Put yourself in the shoes of a Labour voting Leaver who used to rely on the Guardian and the Independent/i as their main source of news (more the latter than the former as the Guardian has too much of an agenda). Now you can't pick them up without having every piece of news reported purely through a blatantly Europhile prism.

    It's got to the point where I need to take out an online subscription to the Telegraph just to get an alternative point of view. For someone on the political left, that's the equivalent of having to live for three months in a brown paper bag in a septic tank, get up at six o'clock in the morning, clean the bag, eat a crust of stale bread, go to work down mill for fourteen hours a day week in-week out. etc etc

    Reading the EU threads on this site isn't much better. Almost every one is written by a Remainer, even if the comments are more balanced.
    PS. Try telling the young people of today that and they'll vote Remain rather than believe you.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,132
    Fantastic trade news this morning.
    Good but unsurprising to see Scotland punching above its weight. Surprised to see Wales do so too (looking at export value per capita), though not yet in surplus.

    Would be interested to see regional figures if they are available.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,139
    Ishmael_Z said:

    No, but it's a zeitgeisty thing. It feels, for the first time, as if we might be only two or three major atrocities away from serious reform.
    Happy days!
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    Think yourself lucky. Put yourself in the shoes of a Labour voting Leaver who used to rely on the Guardian and the Independent/i as their main source of news (more the latter than the former as the Guardian has too much of an agenda). Now you can't pick them up without having every piece of news reported purely through a blatantly Europhile prism.

    It's got to the point where I need to take out an online subscription to the Telegraph just to get an alternative point of view. For someone on the political left, that's the equivalent of having to live for three months in a brown paper bag in a septic tank, get up at six o'clock in the morning, clean the bag, eat a crust of stale bread, go to work down mill for fourteen hours a day week in-week out. etc etc

    Reading the EU threads on this site isn't much better. Almost every one is written by a Remainer, even if the comments are more balanced.
    "It ought to be remembered that there is nothing more difficult to take in hand, more perilous to conduct, or more uncertain in its success, than to take the lead in the introduction of a new order of things. Because the innovator has for enemies all those who have done well under the old conditions, and lukewarm defenders in those who may do well under the new. This coolness arises partly from fear of the opponents, who have the laws on their side, and partly from the incredulity of men, who do not readily believe in new things until they have had a long experience of them.”

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,966

    Most of the revision was in December. Most of our imports are made in October/November for the Xmas rush right? So it's a big revision in a medium sort of a number.
    Yes its odd. When you look at the chart on the ONS site the variations in previous months are all modest with a skyscraper for December. These numbers are always volatile and the ONS figures for January suggest a further slip into the red but the underlying trend is indeed hopeful.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,966
    MaxPB said:

    I'd be surprised if we don't get a revision to 0.6%, given the data we've had.

    And this is before we work out that construction was not in recession after all.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,954
    AndyJS said:

    I think it's shocking how partisan all of the newspapers have become compared to just a few years ago. There's very little nuance in any of them these days. I remember when the Independent tried to be balanced between Conservative and Labour.
    I've become disappointed with the Daily Mail. Yes, it was always right wing, but back in the day it had a healthy scepticism of all politicians of whatever leaning. I know that Dacre is besotted with Theresa, but some of its recent front pages could have come out of the Tory Whips' office.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Happy days!
    Well, it's all relative, innit?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,396
    Mr. M, the chapter on when it's necessary to lie may well make useful reading too...
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,132
    edited March 2018
    On newspapers:
    I vaguely remember the Telegraph being quite good in the Worsthorne era. The collapse under the Barclays was rapid and total.

    FT is good, but it some of its journalism is a little wishful. I’m not sure why - it doesn’t need “click bait”. I still rate the Times, but don’t have a subscription so my main experience is free copies on aeroplanes etc. The Guardian is of course the free go-to, but you have to wade through a mass of articles about transgenderism/polygamy/centristdads etc.

    The Guardian could have a great future as the English speaking world’s liberal newspaper of choice; it would be a civic duty to sort out a viable economic model.

    All else is utter dross.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,966
    AndyJS said:

    I think it's shocking how partisan all of the newspapers have become compared to just a few years ago. There's very little nuance in any of them these days. I remember when the Independent tried to be balanced between Conservative and Labour.
    I think the clue was in the name and when Simon Kelner was editor they still had a range of views and some good opinion pieces that made it worth reading. I haven't even looked at their online site in a few years now.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,139

    Fantastic trade news this morning.
    Good but unsurprising to see Scotland punching above its weight. Surprised to see Wales do so too (looking at export value per capita), though not yet in surplus.

    Would be interested to see regional figures if they are available.

    I believe Scotland`s EU exports have increased to 49% of the total. Great that there's no threat to this growing area of our trade.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,966
    John_M said:

    "It ought to be remembered that there is nothing more difficult to take in hand, more perilous to conduct, or more uncertain in its success, than to take the lead in the introduction of a new order of things. Because the innovator has for enemies all those who have done well under the old conditions, and lukewarm defenders in those who may do well under the new. This coolness arises partly from fear of the opponents, who have the laws on their side, and partly from the incredulity of men, who do not readily believe in new things until they have had a long experience of them.”

    Machiavelli?
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,978
    I read some European newspapers online. What is notable is that their principal (or only) sources of UK news are the BBC and The Guardian.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    DavidL said:

    Machiavelli?
    The man himself.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    edited March 2018

    I believe Scotland`s EU exports have increased to 49% of the total. Great that there's no threat to this growing area of our trade.
    It's 17% as at 2016. Of course, they may have jumped by £33bn in the last year, but probably not.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,139
    John_M said:

    It's 17% as at 2016. Of course, they may have jumped by £33bn in the last year, but probably not.
    Link?
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    Link?
    http://www.gov.scot/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Economy/Exports/ESSPublication
This discussion has been closed.