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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If the 7 Sinn Fein MPs take their seats TMay’s future & possibly Brexit would be down to the Tory EU rebels
Lots of talk about today of the possibility that the Irish nationalist party, Sinn Fein, taking up its MP seats at Westminster. A call has been made by the prime minister of the Irish Republic, Leo Varadkar, who is saying that the Sinn Fein MPs should take up their seats at Westminster in order to make things better for Ireland.
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Interesting it is a fear of the cabinet that it might happen, and that the DUP might abandon her on crucial votes.
What a disaster Brexit is that we need Sinn Fein to save us.
I cannot see Sinn Fein taking their seats and the Oath of Loyalty to the Queen personally
Barnier (news conference) just rejected Corbyn and Fox's proposals and said he is only interested in what the PM has to say
I cannot see the Tory Rebels aligning themselves with SF, which is how it would be seen.
(Not that I can see SF taking up their seats anyway.)
What a disaster Cameron/Osborne's Referendum campaign was that you need Sinn Fein alongside Dominic Grieve and Anna Soubry to have any chance of staying in the EU. By defying the vote of the people.
What a fiasco your political heroes left behind when they ran away from Westminster. But hey, they got better paid jobs elsewhere. So no biggy.
Michel Barnier says he is concerned about the shortage of time between now and autumn, when Brexit is meant to be concluded. The clock is ticking (in case anyone had forgotten)
The Brexit treaty will run to 168 articles and 120 pages, says Michel Barnier, but "no surprises".
He used the word text, not treaty.
He has also just referred to it as a 'draft withdrawal treaty'.
Michel Barnier says there are "quite a lot of points of disagreement" on transition with UK and repeats his view "that we have not reached the transition yet".
Michel Barnier says he agrees with Donald Tusk, when asked whether the three baskets proposal is an illusion. "The UK knows what the rules are."
Brexit transition must be "short and time-specified" says Barnier. He says this is point of disagreement with UK.
Officially UK position is "around two years".
Unofficially many in EU think 21 mths or 2 yrs way too short.
BIB - Is what I've been worried/warning about for a while.
A messy Brexit suits Sinn Fein anyway
Why break the habit of a lifetime to vote on an Anna Soubry advisory amendment. And the optics of Sinn Fein siding with Labour, the SNP and the Lib Dems to derail Brexit would of course be a godsend to the Toriesl
Anyhoo it looks like Mrs May is going to give in the rebel alliance anyway, so no need for the IRA's political wing.
Bring it on Sinn Fein, Bring it on.
https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/968484017736749067
I could live with that.
The EU and their local shills are still pretending one is going to magically appear.
Ken Clarke points out twice the IRA nearly murdered him and on both occasions Jeremy Corbyn defended him.
It's a view.
The media is really letting us down.
Instead of intelligent debate, we get at best mere partisanship (thinking perhaps of Faisal), and worst soft-ball questioning.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/02/27/eu-will-fight-keep-northern-ireland-subject-eu-law-brexit-says/
The UK govt could choose to have a customs border along the Irish Sea if they still want GB to remain outside the CU, but they would lose the support of the DUP if they pursued this option.
The Country is served by the poorest of poor journalists and second rate politicians
Imagine if Liz Kendall,
had not been Tory Lite,
Imagine if she had policies,
that were not totally shite.
Imagine if Ms Cooper,
had opposed austerity,
instead she could not give preference
For Coffee or for tea.
Imagine if the PLP
had got behind our leader,
instead they tried to undermine,
And make our chances weaker.
The appeal of our Jezz
Was there for all to see
and now Ms Strong and Stable
has no majority
If Britain itself became a republic, the second objection would still stand. The only scenario where I could remotely see SF taking seats at Westminster would be for the sole purpose of voting through a bill implementing a treaty to transfer Northern Ireland to the Republic. Even then, I doubt they'd take the seats unless their votes were going to be crucial for its passage, and they'd certainly require some sort of waiver of the oath too.
In practical terms it will never happen.
" The only way for there not to be a hard border across Ulster is for the 6 counties to remain in the CU."
No, there are plenty of alternatives, but the EU is deliberately trying to block them.
Very funny film
The only downside
It closed with this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mMaIzHkGwO8
Which 16 hours later i am still singing much to the annoyance of Mrs BJ
LISTEN AT YOUR PERIL
F1: Kubica in action at testing, and setting competitive times. Huzzah!
My overriding memory, it must be said, of the excellent Polish driver is him failing by two-thousandths of a second to get pole in Monaco when I'd backed him at around 8 or 9. One was not amused.
Who is paying for it ?
Who's guard's will man the border ?
What plans have been put in place for this to happen ?
It's fantasy.
However, I now expect BINO.
I fall between two stools on this. I do not believe it is right for a party to punish MPs for voting with their consciences. I do believe MPs should consider whether or not their electorate would be happy. But it is for them to decide if that risk is worth it
Even though I disagree with them May should not be allowed to punish MPs who vote against her.
The chattering classes will gleefully rejoice. The electorate's decision will be treated with contempt. And the poisonous political atmosphere will become much worse.
Such a situation would be similar to Lisbon, and the reneging of manifesto pledges for a referendum. Only much more severe.
I fear a terrible mistake is about to made with profound consequences for the health of our body politic. Perhaps I'm wrong. But my suggestion of how we might leave in name only, or have a terrible deal deliberately negotiated to facilitate a second referendum, is looking reasonably prescient.
As he says, there are already VAT differentials on some goods, but both sides still allow free travel without needing cars to queue up for inspection.
Conceptually, what’s the difference in the case of differently-tariffed goods? Certainly a customs union (or arrangement) makes life a lot easier because it avoids (much of) the problem altogether, but isn’t this just about how both parties want to police and control?
It seems perfectly reasonable for the PM to fire someone as their Minister/from the government if they won't vote for government policy.
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/um02uga2au/TimesResults_180220_VI_Trackers.pdf
Con 40% (+0)
Lab 42% (+1)
LD 8% (+0)
Wrong to leave 45% (-1), right 42% (+0)
Which is lucky for Williams, because Kubica (their reserve driver) has been faster than their two race drivers so far...
This is a good article on some of the issues.
https://www.rte.ie/news/2017/1104/917420-brexit/
To leave the EU and then have it responsible for our customs is to treat the decision to leave with contempt. As I mentioned to Mr. Eagles, the customs union was the only firm red line I had in mind, being comfortable with a pretty broad spectrum of potential departures. Leaving the EU and staying in a customs union, treating the voters with the same contempt and deception as happened over Lisbon and reneging upon the manifesto commitment to a referendum, would be utterly wretched.
Now, if the proposal were a temporary one for the transition period, that would be another matter. But Comrade Corbyn's cunning plan is for a permanent one.
The Red Bulls look to me as though they might be a great deal more competitive than last year - and the Ferrari looks extremely well developed for the beginning of the season...
If the Red Bulls are competitive then that must mean the Renault (engine) is good enough, which could also put Alonso in the frame. However, I saw on the livefeed that part of the McLaren bodywork was a bit scorched due to overheating, so they'll need to sort that.
Mercedes sticking with the long wheelbase might put them in trouble on the twisty tracks. Ferrari could either hit the sweet spot by shortening theirs, or bugger themselves by being behind Mercedes on fast tracks and Red Bull on the streets.
https://twitter.com/mikegalsworthy/status/967425658338136065
I never claimed to speak for Leave, or Leave voters other than myself.
You and the other 'libertarian' Brexiteers on here (Philip Thompson, Richard Tyndall), who think Brexit should be all about free trade deals, are perfectly entitled to your own views on what Brexit would be best, but your own personal views are not automatically the only democratic option. If you're going to claim that it is, I don't think it's unreasonable to ask for some evidence to support that that's what Leave voters as a whole want - since all the evidence I'm aware of has shown trade deals was the main motivation for only a tiny minority of Leave voters.
Voting to leave the EU then having the EU responsible for our customs, particularly on the disadvantageous Turkish model, would be wretched. If you can find polling whereby people approve of us having no control and the EU dictating our customs, and third party countries getting preferential trade with us but the UK not benefiting on a reciprocal basis, then fair enough.
How to explain this difference?
I'll opening the bidding at 5.
Sinn Fein recognises that a hard border would be bad for Ireland.
Sinn Fein do not take seats at Westminster and never will.
Sinn Fein recognises that the circumstances are unique.
All Sinn Fein Westminster MPs resign asking their supporters to vote SDLP in the ensuing by-elections. Sinn Fein will re-stand at the next Westminster GE.
SDLP 2017 manifesto said "Only the SDLP can fight a hard Brexit and a hard border after this election."
Now assume there are 7 SDLP MPs at Westminster.
Not going to happen is it. Is it?
Ps - I thought the tory "leavers" were headbangers in the 90's - now it seems a lot of what they said is actually coming to pass.
Looking at the detail on the car, they seem to have concentrated on retaining the characteristics of last year's while reducing drag. I think they ought to be right up there with Mercedes - but what interests me if whether Red Bull consistently challenge for wins, or are merely a consistent number three.
Edited extra bit: F1: currently snowing.
The chances of anything coming from Mars are a million to one.....