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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Hurrah! Our sovereign parliament is taking back control!
This is what Brexit was about: the right of Britain’s democratically elected MPs to take their own decisions free from the interference of Brussels (or, indeed, anybody else). Or perhaps not. Understandably, some pro-Leave MPs are so incandescent at the prospect that the Trade Bill might be amended so as to require “an appropriate authority to take all necessary steps [to conclude a customs union with the EU by Brexit Day]” that they’re burning as filament-white as the light bulbs you once got before the EU banned them.
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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/obituaries/2018/02/22/edward-pearce-sketchwriter-broadcaster-historian-obituary/
The former minister Anna Soubry, who tabled the amendment, said it was backed by the same 11 so-called mutineer Tories who inflicted a defeat during the withdrawal bill process. These include the former cabinet ministers Nicky Morgan and Dominic Grieve.
“On this issue there are a lot of pragmatic Conservative MPs who hear what business groups like the CBI are saying and are prepared to make a stand,” Ms Soubry said. She expected the numbers to grow.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/band-of-tory-rebels-will-vote-for-a-customs-union-with-eu-2026g560j
Grrr, grrrr.
I was going to use this headline tomorrow.
I cracked this gag yesterday on PB.
Suspect some small concession is planned for next week, and the usual hope in politics that something might come up.
I don't think the Govt can accept this amendment without a challenger to May's leadership following.
I suspect a couple of Labour MPs will abstain, making it very tight indeed. Could even be a tie.
The 10% doubt was that it’s Saturday morning.
Assuming we are free to conduct our own trade policy abroad, and can’t have domestic product standards forced upon us, then most Tories would be supportive.
The amendment, as it stands, is so vague as to be meaningless, seems tailor made for the EU to offer a crappy deal on customs and trade.
It's boh a strength and a weakness of May that nobody has any clear idea of what she actually wants an EU deal to look like in any detail, if indeed she has a preference. She appears to see it primarily as a matter of party management. While this means that nobody feels the confidence and enthusiasm that comes from following a clear lead, it also means that she can flexibly adopt a customs union as an objective, saying to the Brexiteers that she's done her best to avoid the commitment, but the numbers aren't there, so she will set out to make it as minimal as possible. And since trade deals with third countries are not obviously on offer on acceptable terms, she probably privately feels meh, who cares.
As David says, even if Rees-Mogg was PM, he couldn't magic up a different majority in Parliament, unless he called an election, which would be a courageous move in the Yes, Minister sense. This sort of thing does mean that Brexit may turn out to be quite limited and we are heading for Norway plus fudge. Arguably that is quite British - muddle through rather than have clear-cut change - and also reflects the divided state of public opinion. Democracy, innit?
I'll get my coat.
Corbyn claims fail to dent poll support
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/f2a8fa32-18e4-11e8-9d2e-0477b9927049
Bring my coat when you fetch yours please and do not forget my hat
The first poll since the row showed the Labour lead up 2 points. It put Labour on 42 per cent, up one point, and the Tories unchanged on 40 per cent.
The YouGov poll for The Times found that 64 per cent said it made no difference to their view of Mr Corbyn, while 6 per cent said it made them think better of him, mostly Labour voters.
https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2018/feb/24/oprah-winfrey-definitely-rules-out-2020-run-for-us-president
https://twitter.com/davidwooding/status/967299273904873472
I'm intrigued about 6% feeling that the allegation makes them think better of him. That's about 3 million people. Who knew that the 1980 Czech Secret Service had so many fans?
Mr. Flashman (deceased), people without a sense of humour are not to be trusted. People with a sense of humour should buy my fantastic comedy. It's what Jesus would do:
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Adventures-Sir-Edric-Thaddeus-White-ebook/dp/B00GCAF2CI/
And the Czech spy story's diverting attention from those things the country should be angry with him about. Like his total impotence and ambivalence in the face of Brexit. Infact it's giving him an excuse.
Plus ça change.
I imagine they are conflicted on the Customs Union. They recognise common standards with the EU are necessary for business but don't want rule taking either.
But, the world has moved on.
It really is a "no brainer" as perfectly possible to leave the CU at a later point to the nirvana of innovative organic carrot exports.
The probability of the government falling over such a sensible proposal just demonstrates how idiotic the Tory party is.
It’s slightly different for the Tories, though. They have an older voting demographic that does still read the newspapers. Thus, headlines in the Mail etc still matter hugely to Theresa May and the rest of them.
Broadcast media has become more slanted, and in politics it's now become commonplace to demonise/dehumanise opponents.
Yep. Right.
This is one of memes Remainers perennially try and troll Leavers with, thinking they're being awfully clever and ironically witty, but actually makes no sense at all.
https://www.buzzfeed.com/albertonardelli/the-governments-own-brexit-analysis-says-the-uk-will-be?utm_term=.wr5XLW1xKb#.cw0RakgQXm
so in what respect is the previous comment 'Utter nonsense'?
If only the Leader of the Opposition was thinking along those lines.. *sighs*
Oh.. wait a minute.
It's a very worrying thing to hear you say, from the two Labour posters I respect the most.
We need left- and right-wing biased media organisations that are willing to shine bright lights onto the wrongdoings of the other side. Ideally they'd do the same for their own side, but we can't ask too much ...
It could all fall apart very quickly.
The counter-example is of course Trump, who nobody could call unflappable and who reacts to provocations like a 10-year-old. But the "I'm strong and take no crap for one second before I retaliate" self-image has its followers too, perhaps more in the USA than Britain.
p.s Full disclosure: I'm not a Broxtowe constituent.
Everyone has an opinion. Civil servants included. And they, like most university professors and academics, will be pro-Remain. And often strongly pro-Remain. No-one is fully objective in this. So, if you are intellectually self-confident, and truly interested in understanding likelihood, accuracy, and error, you have to look at the modelling assumptions they are using, the underlying evidence behind them, and challenge the basis upon which the model is made.
If they are instinctively coming at it from a different point of view, that makes it even more important to read it, not less.
I'll help you out....
(1 of 2)
"The population forecasts are based on CE’s assumptions that net migration will fall from today’s level of around 250,000 people per annum to 100,000 due to migration controls. These migration assumptions then influence the forecasts for GVA and employment. What is implicitly happening in the CE forecasts is that most of the loss of output and jobs will be due to lower migration. Since 76% of the 4.3 million extra jobs in the UK over the last 15 years were taken by workers born outside the UK, the CE forecast is on solid ground in predicting that a Brexit-related reduction of job creation would reflect a lower level of migration into the UK. The impact on jobs for indigenous workers would be relatively small."
"The UK economy is likely to be a little smaller after Brexit, mainly because lower migration will mean lower numbers of jobs and less output. We agree with CE that the living standards of the resident population are likely to be little changed."
"The CE predictions are not very different from those generated by the CBR UK model operated by myself and colleagues at Cambridge and Ulster universities. Our forecast is based on a 2-year transition period followed by a free-trade agreement for goods only (i.e. no special arrangement for financial services). Our prediction is that by 2030 GDP would be 1.2% lower than in the baseline forecast, and employment 2% lower (a loss of 640,000 jobs), but per capita GDP would be higher by 0.6%."
So, basically, the UK's economy may well be a little smaller *in overall size* than it might otherwise have been by 2030, but that's because of lower net migration. It will make virtually no difference to living standards by 2030 and, in fact, per capita GDP might even be higher.
And, of course, if the UK operated a more liberal immigration policy open to the RoW under a future Government even that would go out the window.
And that's just to 2030. 12 years away. So not decades, over which time Africa and Asia will be the tigers of the future, not Europe (and 94% population and 80%+ of the world economy is non-European even today).
Think man. Don't let your pre-existing conclusions rule your head.
We will have more control, I think we will have (some) more money, there won't be big change to things we like, there will be no material impact on prosperity, and I can already see some things getting better: like agriculture and fisheries.
We *might* have less geopolitical influence in the medium-term, at least whilst we establish a new global trading web and enhanced non-European foreign policy approach.
I accept that.
As you can imagine, I'm not much of a Guardianista. But it's vital to have a press that vehemently, defiantly, and rudely challenges all of your world views and prejudices from the opposite angle, no matter what Government is in power.
“Parliament” is not sovereign - the “Crown-in-Parliament” is. All it means is that the Sovereign authority of the Crown is exercised by the Executive (subject to oversight by the Legislature).
The issue we have is that too many MPs are trying to govern - usurping the role of the executive - rather than fulfilling their proper purpose
"I think we will have (some) more money"
"there won't be big change to things we like"
"there will be no material impact on prosperity"
Whilst I hope you are right, these are not certainties, especially given the ham-fisted way the government is approaching Brexit.
In Broxtowe, I would have spoilt my ballot.
I yield to no-one in my dislike of Corbyn asa politician but this allegation seemed to be all smoke, based on what I’ve read. That Corbyn was sympathetic to the Soviets is known and nothing new.
What concerns me much more is Corbyn’s approach to press regulation. He has no symapthy for press freedom and his instinct is to regulate and ban. That was the case before this story and it is one reason why I don’t want a Corbyn government.