Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The problem with the swing-back theory is that so few CON v

2

Comments

  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,658

    This bubble blubbing, it's all about taking the heat off the useless Eds.

    Quite.

    I note that tim hasn't responded to my question of how he defines a bubble. It's a pity, I was hoping to be able to take some more money off him by framing a bet around the definition.
    I detect a bit of panic in PB Lefty ranks, its never good for troop morale to see the officers crying. And while this last forthight they might not be wailing, you can see the tears forming in their reddeded eyes.
  • Lib Dems go to conference this weekend in 4th place and 5 points behind UKIP, which must be a little disconcerting - The last time the Lib Dems were lower was July 2012.

    And now the Lib Dem grandee, Lord Oakeshott, has called for Nick Clegg’s removal as leader before the next general election. (isn’t Oakshott their party chairman ?)

    This conference weekend looks as though it’s gearing up to be a humdinger event.
  • tim said:

    £50 at evens on Redcar going Labour then?

    They might win it, that wasn't my point. My point was that Rentoul has it the wrong way round when he looks at the LibDem-held target seats first and the Tory-held seats as an afterthought. He also seems to have forgotten that, if the LibDem vote collapses, the Tories will also pick up seats from the LibDems, more easily in fact that Labour would. There are 11 LibDems seats vulnerable to just a 3.2% LD->Con swing.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    JackW said:

    tim said:

    @JohnRentoul:
    If only they'd not blown the boundary changes, or driven 15% of their 2010 vote to UKIP

    Are there 10 realistic Labour targets ?
    They are certainly targeting 16 LD seats. I believe they are likely to gain at least 6 and around 3-4 are out of their reach, but the outcome between 6 and 12 will depend on the policital situation and the state on the ground in 2 years time for both parties. So yes, possible, but not certain.


    Thank you Andrea.

    It's a lazy comment as Nabbers indicates. Potential gains from the LibDems are at the margin of what Labour requires. The main battle as we know are the marginal rich Con/Lab contests.

  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,047
    Re Stagecoach. Obviously the Mail journalist has never left anything in a London cab where I think they charge £70 or British Rail for that matter where they also charge.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724

    Lib Dems go to conference this weekend in 4th place and 5 points behind UKIP, which must be a little disconcerting - The last time the Lib Dems were lower was July 2012.

    And now the Lib Dem grandee, Lord Oakeshott, has called for Nick Clegg’s removal as leader before the next general election. (isn’t Oakshott their party chairman ?)

    This conference weekend looks as though it’s gearing up to be a humdinger event.

    I'm waiting for the stand-up comedy from the platform and karaoke.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gk2FpJyHMHw
  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,759
    Patrick said:

    @SMukesh

    Labour have learnt the lessons and they are going to build houses.Lots of them.

    I have seen no policy statement at all from Labour on how they plan to dismantle the planning laws. (or any other policy for that matter). The ONLY substantive issue stopping house building is planning. Demand is surely there. But building can't take place until plans are granted. 'We'll build houses' is an empty statement. 'We'll massively liberalise planning' would be a solid policy - but not an electorally winning one in MIddle England. And there's the rub.

    Actually there are almost 400000 sites having planning permission to build but with no activity.I think Labour`s policies will start becoming clearer in the next few weeks,so you can judge for yourself.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    I would argue that the Labour Party made a grievous error continuing Tory housing policy, but that under new management, the party has learned its lessons which is evidenced by the rupture with the Blair/Brown years iby choosing Ed Miliband in preference to the "brother of Cameron candidate", David Miliband.

    OL.. Is that your answer then?.. duh..
    Is that why they didn't build any houses, are you serious..
    If you were out canvassig is that the answer you would give to a prospective voter.
    13 years .. no houses built..

  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366

    So Labour have learned lessons, they'll put the good of the country before the good of the party?

    Of course, we should believe them, they are politicians after all, and politicians never lie.

    "Why, sometimes I've believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast."
  • SMukesh said:

    SMukesh said:

    I see the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors has joined@Tim in raising concerns about a housing bubble.

    Remarkable how none of these lefties complaining about Osborne's attempt at a housing bubble complained at the time about Brown's actual housing bubble.

    I do recall them though expressing outrage when their then beloved banks were accused of reckless lending. Not outrage that their then beloved banks had engaged in reckless lending but outrage that they were being accused of doing when those lefties saw nothing wrong with those lending policies and indeed demanded government intervention so that their then beloved banks could continue those same reckless lending policies.

    Because if you take away Brown's housing bubble what does that leave of Labour's economic record but rising debt, rising unemployment, rising trade deficit, falling industrial production and falling productivity growth. But all of these could be ignored as long as Labour had their rising house prices and the consequent encouragement it gave to consumer spending.

    Housing bubbles damage the economy and reduce economic and social mobility and that's what Labour achieved from 2000 onwards.

    And what will be Labour's economic strategy the next time they're in government?

    To create another housing bubble.


    To repeat the mistakes of the past so soon is madness.

    Labour have learnt the lessons and they are going to build houses.Lots of them.This will limit housing price rises and also help first-time buyers to get onto the ladder while protecting them from an artificial boom.
    The Labour mantra when in opposition - we got it wrong last time but it will be different next time.

    Except it wont be different next time - Labour will be trying to increase house prices not house building.

    You can pretend otherwise but we all know what the truth will be.

  • Roger said:

    Re Stagecoach. Obviously the Mail journalist has never left anything in a London cab where I think they charge £70 or British Rail for that matter where they also charge.

    christ almighty. tight bastards all round.

    Anyone who aspires to a customer service job should be sent to japan for several months to figure out what "service" actually looks like..
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    Lib Dems go to conference this weekend in 4th place and 5 points behind UKIP, which must be a little disconcerting - The last time the Lib Dems were lower was July 2012.

    And now the Lib Dem grandee, Lord Oakeshott, has called for Nick Clegg’s removal as leader before the next general election. (isn’t Oakshott their party chairman ?)

    This conference weekend looks as though it’s gearing up to be a humdinger event.

    No Lord Oakeshitt is not LibDem Chairman but he is a legend in his own lunchtime and sometime adviser to Vince.


  • Old Labour

    Was it you who first posted that article about gentrification and decline of different parts of London?

    If so then thanks - I reposted it at UKPR where it sparked some interesting debate.


  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,112
    CD13 said:


    "Why, sometimes I've believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast."

    Why not round the morning off with breakfast at Milliways? ;-)

  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    I was going to go off topic about climbing ladders and BJs, but I won't.
    Plato said:

    Lib Dems go to conference this weekend in 4th place and 5 points behind UKIP, which must be a little disconcerting - The last time the Lib Dems were lower was July 2012.

    And now the Lib Dem grandee, Lord Oakeshott, has called for Nick Clegg’s removal as leader before the next general election. (isn’t Oakshott their party chairman ?)

    This conference weekend looks as though it’s gearing up to be a humdinger event.

    I'm waiting for the stand-up comedy from the platform and karaoke.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gk2FpJyHMHw
  • tim said:

    If the Lib Dem vote collapses it goes 2:1 Lab:Con in London Midlands and Northern marginals .

    If so, and assuming the split doesn't depend on whether it's a Con or LD seat (a big assumption, we just don't know, although Lord Ashcroft's marginals poll may tell us more in a few days' time), then other things being equal Conservative seats will fall like ninepins. LibDem-held Labour-target seats are, as JackW says, not the principal focus.
  • @Plato – “I'm waiting for the stand-up comedy from the platform and karaoke.”

    She should have left the vaudeville act to Lembit - One of those excruciating moments that’s best forgotten, me thinks.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    The article appealed to me because I love maps.


    Old Labour

    Was it you who first posted that article about gentrification and decline of different parts of London?

    If so then thanks - I reposted it at UKPR where it sparked some interesting debate.


  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited September 2013
    Random and meaby erroneous thoughs on LD-Lab battles

    Labour will gain Brent Central by a landsline now Teather is retiring.
    Norwich South should be a comfortable gain. If they don't gain Manchester Withington and Burnley, they are not going anywhere.
    Bradford East can depend on the choice of candidate.
    East Dunbartonshire is the 6th I can see them getting.

    Redcar should be a Labour seat on paper but I suspect it won't be as easy as they think. One of the steelworks reopened. It provides a good campaign theme for LD (It closed under Labour, it re-opened under LD government). 2011 locals have not been so bad for LDs. The Labour selection created some tensions in the CLP (because an AWS has been imposed to help the Progress woman from Islington regional party wanted).

    I can't see Labour getting Argyl & Bute...we will never get rid of Simong Hughes...I see LD winning Leeds North West again....and I can see them hanging on Bristol West on a reduced majority...

    what's left?

    Edinburgh West
    Cambridge (independent mind LD backbencher. Labour starting from third with the same candidate as last time....uhm)
    Hornsey
    Birmingham Yardley
    Cardiff Central (Labour gained the Assembly seat by few votes in 2011 but with the incumbent retiring. Higher turnout will help Labour. Incumbency will help LD. 2011 was also probably the worst year for LD)
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    One quick way of bringing down house prices would be to eliminate housing benefit entirely. I think you are onto a winner, tim.

    May mean that we have to step over the homeless a bit more often, but removing the subsidy would bring down rents, and consequent return on capital. Or is subsidy only a bad thing for owner occupiers.
    tim said:

    TGOHF said:

    tim now wants the state to control house prices the day after whining about rigged mail markets for country swellers ?

    These confusibg Labour positions are confusing.

    No I don't, I said it was the wrong solution.
    However coming from someone who now supports state subsidised mortgages and a housing market built on a housing benefit addiction I'm not surprised you're focused on contortions
  • tim said:

    If the Lib Dem vote collapses it goes 2:1 Lab:Con in London Midlands and Northern marginals .

    If so, and assuming the split doesn't depend on whether it's a Con or LD seat (a big assumption, we just don't know, although Lord Ashcroft's marginals poll may tell us more in a few days' time), then other things being equal Conservative seats will fall like ninepins. LibDem-held Labour-target seats are, as JackW says, not the principal focus.
    This is true, but that kind of LD split seems very plausible, so if we're looking for the easiest way we can see Con holding on, the next question is, 2010 LibDems aside, how much Con would have to exceed their 2010 performance against Lab.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    @AndreaParma82 wrote :

    "we will never get rid of Simong Hughes ...."

    Simong Hughes - LOL !!
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,301
    Which way would the LD vote go where the real enemies on councils are seen as Labour?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,098
    I don't buy the LDs reverting to Lab argument.

    In 2010 Lab voters realised that Lab had cocked up the economy big style, couldn't bring themselves to vote Cons, so ok put a cross in the LD box.

    So what's changed? The Cons said they would be austere and have been, Plan B hasn't been needed plus people are suspicious of the "spend/investment" plans of Lab. Most people blame Lab for the mess we're in plus we are coming out of recession.

    So those Lab=>LD voters? Back to Lab? Nope, too dangerous (I credit them with being concerned about the economy/UK). To Cons? Perhaps; they did what they said they were going to do so on that trust issue they might drag some in for the full fat version.

    If the biggest criticism of the Cons today is that they are repeating Labour's mistakes in inflating the housing market then, with the manifest improvement in the economy, I don't see many returning to Labour.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    More good news :^ )

    World First @World_First
    *U.K. 2Q CONSTRUCTION OUTPUT RISES 1.9%; REVISED FROM 1.4% GAIN

    World First @World_First
    *U.K. JULY CONSTRUCTION OUTPUT RISES 2.2%; UP 2% VS YEAR AGO
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,587

    Random and meaby erroneous thoughs on LD-Lab battles

    Labour will gain Brent Central by a landsline now Teather is retiring.
    Norwich South should be a comfortable gain. If they don't gain Manchester Withington and Burnley, they are not going anywhere.
    Bradford East can depend on the choice of candidate.
    East Dunbartonshire is the 6th I can see them getting.

    Redcar should be a Labour seat on paper but I suspect it won't be as easy as they think. One of the steelworks reopened. It provides a good campaign theme for LD (It closed under Labour, it re-opened under LD government). 2011 locals have not been so bad for LDs. The Labour selection created some tensions in the CLP (because an AWS has been imposed to help the Progress woman from Islington regional party wanted).

    I can't see Labour getting Argyl & Bute...we will never get rid of Simong Hughes...I see LD winning Leeds North West again....and I can see them hanging on Bristol West on a reduced majority...

    what's left?

    Edinburgh West
    Cambridge (independent mind LD backbencher. Labour starting from third with the same candidate as last time....uhm)
    Hornsey
    Birmingham Yardley
    Cardiff Central (Labour gained the Assembly seat by few votes in 2011 but with the incumbent retiring. Higher turnout will help Labour. Incumbency will help LD. 2011 was also probably the worst year for LD)

    Helpful analysis by andrea as always. I'd add Hornsey as likely to switch - the Labour ground game in North London is quite remarkable.

    Incidentally, I'll be at the LibDem conference in a non-partisan role Mon/Tues, and have a joint fringe with a Young LibDem (on whether it's desirable and feasible to reduce animal testing) - hope to see some of you there.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited September 2013
    JackW said:

    Lib Dems go to conference this weekend in 4th place and 5 points behind UKIP, which must be a little disconcerting - The last time the Lib Dems were lower was July 2012.

    And now the Lib Dem grandee, Lord Oakeshott, has called for Nick Clegg’s removal as leader before the next general election. (isn’t Oakshott their party chairman ?)

    This conference weekend looks as though it’s gearing up to be a humdinger event.

    No Lord Oakeshitt is not LibDem Chairman but he is a legend in his own lunchtime and sometime adviser to Vince.
    Ah yes, Cable's mouthpiece -cheers for the clarification Jack W – best summed up last night when someone said, ‘if Oakshott and Lembit are the only two calling for Clegg’s head, He’s pretty safe’

    As an aside -I trust you and your good lady are in fine fettle ?
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,301
    Re housing, reminds me of all the nonsense from King and others about how inflation was low, when there were double digit rises in house prices.

    Bank of England taking action to increase interest rates, the trouble is how will it alter government borrowing costs. Ultimately if you are borrowing, surely it is a good idea to ask lenders to show how repayment costs change as interest rates rise or fall.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    David Smith ‏@dsmitheconomics 52m

    LSL-Acadametrics house price index. National rise 3.2% London 7%. Only London had real house price rise year to July:

    No no real terms increase outside London.
  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,759
    Polly has got it spot on for once.

    `Even the exceptional achievement of a UK opposition leader halting the US bombing of Syria has somehow redounded to Cameron's favour. How adroitly Cameron's team turns dross to gold now the heft of the Tory press is back in pre-election lockstep, and the nervous BBC is cowed`

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/sep/13/labour-alienated-tories-lib-dems-miliband-fluke
  • @SMukesh

    I think Labour`s policies will start becoming clearer in the next few weeks

    Really? Ed's been leader 3 years now. What's going to change in the coming weeks?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Topping - are you suggesting that Labour leaning voters may not rush to place a cross to make Ed Miliband's Prime Minister ?

    It is an idea with merit - when even the most rabid of Labour supporters can't come up with any good pro-Miliband spin other than "not Tory" you have to wonder how high motivation will be ?
  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,759
    Patrick said:

    @SMukesh

    I think Labour`s policies will start becoming clearer in the next few weeks

    Really? Ed's been leader 3 years now. What's going to change in the coming weeks?

    I wonder what`s due to happen in the next 2 weeks...
  • TOPPING said:

    I don't buy the LDs reverting to Lab argument.

    In 2010 Lab voters realised that Lab had cocked up the economy big style, couldn't bring themselves to vote Cons, so ok put a cross in the LD box.

    alternative is- they thought labour was too authoritarian, and not left wing enough, couldn't forgive blari/brown for Iraq; but would never vote tory in a million years. felt betrayed by nick going into coalition/tuition fees; labour might be safe again, so they could go back...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,192
    edited September 2013
    Patrick said:

    @SMukesh

    Labour have learnt the lessons and they are going to build houses.Lots of them.

    I have seen no policy statement at all from Labour on how they plan to dismantle the planning laws. (or any other policy for that matter). The ONLY substantive issue stopping house building is planning. Demand is surely there. But building can't take place until plans are granted. 'We'll build houses' is an empty statement. 'We'll massively liberalise planning' would be a solid policy - but not an electorally winning one in MIddle England. And there's the rub.

    I think Patrick that you are missing the point. For the last 5 years demand has not been there. It has not been there because the Banks were not keen to lend under any circumstances and certainly not to anyone without a huge deposit. The point of Osborne's policy is to try to increase the supply of credit to something like normal thereby creating something like normal demand. Without it, as we have proven yet again, housebuilders will not build.

    So having policies of "we will build lots more houses" and "we oppose Osborne's funding scheme for deposits" is completely incoherent and economically illiterate. The only way that that circle can be squared is by saying that "we will build hundreds of thousands of new council houses". They of course, unlike private housing, have to funded. And there is no money.

    Of course the need for Osborne's scheme is contingent on there still being a shortage of credit. That is changing quite rapidly at the moment with banks deciding that they want to get back into the mortgage game. It may be that the scheme becomes unnecessary. If so, fine. But at the moment it is by far the cheapest and best way to encourage new housebuilding. And it is working. Big time.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Is a national rise in house prices that is the same as inflation a"bubble"? If not, what is your definition?

    How about 10% above CPI sustained for two years as a definition for betting purposes?
    tim said:

    TGOHF said:

    David Smith ‏@dsmitheconomics 52m

    LSL-Acadametrics house price index. National rise 3.2% London 7%. Only London had real house price rise year to July:

    No no real terms increase outside London.

    Pay rose by 1.1%
    House prices by 3-6 times that.

    Using the fact that pay is lagging inflation to claim there's no problem is bizarre
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    tim said:

    TGOHF said:

    David Smith ‏@dsmitheconomics 52m

    LSL-Acadametrics house price index. National rise 3.2% London 7%. Only London had real house price rise year to July:

    No no real terms increase outside London.

    Pay rose by 1.1%
    House prices by 3-6 times that.

    Using the fact that pay is lagging inflation to claim there's no problem is bizarre
    Heh - so if a price rising faster than wages is a "bubble" there must be train fare bubbles and food bubbles and fuel bubbles and clothes bubbles and electronics bubbles and insurance bubbles and coffee bubbles and book bubbles and booze bubbles....

    More bubbles than Michael Jackson's wildest dreams....

  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    edited September 2013

    alternative is- they thought labour was too authoritarian, and not left wing enough, couldn't forgive blari/brown for Iraq; but would never vote tory in a million years. felt betrayed by nick going into coalition/tuition fees; labour might be safe again, so they could go back...

    .. except that, at some time between now and May 2015, they are going to find out that Labour remains authoritarian, is moving to be seen as less of a pro-immigration and pro-welfare party, and, most of all, hasn't the faintest intention of reversing a single one of the dreadful Tory cuts which they think are the end of civilised life as we know it, indeed that Balls has cornered himself into a position where he will be forced to admit he plans to cut more. So will they actually vote Labour? Or will they go Green or simply not vote?

    In fact I'm pretty sure this effect is already happening, and explains much of the drop in Labour's poll ratings and the calamitous drop in Miliband's personal ratings even amongst those who say they'll vote Labour.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    OT Great little story

    A group of youths have been caught on CCTV repairing a broken bike rack after a night out.

    The rack, which had been damaged for several weeks, caught their attention as they queued for kebabs in Boston Market Place in Lincolnshire in the early hours. Footage shows the group putting down their takeaways and unbending the thick metal hoop which had been damaged when a car reversed into it.

    Video footage shows the group discussing a strategy before spending almost 13 minutes straightening the hoop at 3am. The damage had been reported to the council. Councillor Stephen Woodliffe, from Boston Borough Council, said he had found it “remarkable” as he watched the young men on the CCTV footage.

    “Young people often get a bad press, and this shows there are some who want to contribute to their society and do the right thing,” he said. http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/uk/article3867638.ece
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    edited September 2013

    Is a national rise in house prices that is the same as inflation a"bubble"? If not, what is your definition?

    How about 10% above CPI sustained for two years as a definition for betting purposes?

    tim said:

    TGOHF said:

    David Smith ‏@dsmitheconomics 52m

    LSL-Acadametrics house price index. National rise 3.2% London 7%. Only London had real house price rise year to July:

    No no real terms increase outside London.

    Pay rose by 1.1%
    House prices by 3-6 times that.

    Using the fact that pay is lagging inflation to claim there's no problem is bizarre
    There appears to be a low wattage bulb flickering this morning :D

  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    JackW said:

    Lib Dems go to conference this weekend in 4th place and 5 points behind UKIP, which must be a little disconcerting - The last time the Lib Dems were lower was July 2012.

    And now the Lib Dem grandee, Lord Oakeshott, has called for Nick Clegg’s removal as leader before the next general election. (isn’t Oakshott their party chairman ?)

    This conference weekend looks as though it’s gearing up to be a humdinger event.

    No Lord Oakeshitt is not LibDem Chairman but he is a legend in his own lunchtime and sometime adviser to Vince.
    Ah tes, Cable's mouthpiece -cheers for the clarification Jack W – best summed up last night when someone said, ‘if Oakshott and Lembit are the only two calling for Clegg’s head, He’s pretty safe’

    As an aside -I trust you and your good lady are in fine fettle ?
    Mrs Jack W presently has wanderlust - again - I blame SeanT, and she is now in robust good health. She probably has a lover - I don't blame SeanT !!

    Yours truly is in middling fettle but better than I should be - I don't have a lover and it certainly wouldn't be SeanT !!

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    tim said:

    TGOHF said:

    tim said:

    TGOHF said:

    David Smith ‏@dsmitheconomics 52m

    LSL-Acadametrics house price index. National rise 3.2% London 7%. Only London had real house price rise year to July:

    No no real terms increase outside London.

    Pay rose by 1.1%
    House prices by 3-6 times that.

    Using the fact that pay is lagging inflation to claim there's no problem is bizarre
    Heh - so if a price rising faster than wages is a "bubble" there must be train fare bubbles and food bubbles and fuel bubbles and clothes bubbles and electronics bubbles and insurance bubbles and coffee bubbles and book bubbles and booze bubbles....

    More bubbles than Michael Jackson's wildest dreams....

    Housing affordability counts.
    In your world if pay goes up by 0.1% but inflation and house prices go up by 10% there's been no real rise in house prices
    Doesn't make it a dangerous bubble that can bring down banks - like what happened under Labour.

    Get your story straight - are house prices endangering banks and heading for a crash or are incomes stagnant due to slow wage recovery ? Clue - it's the latter.

    If the latter than another tax cut for the low paid will surely have your support - unlike the last one which didn't ?




  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,098

    alternative is- they thought labour was too authoritarian, and not left wing enough, couldn't forgive blari/brown for Iraq; but would never vote tory in a million years. felt betrayed by nick going into coalition/tuition fees; labour might be safe again, so they could go back...

    .. except that, at some time between now and May 2015, they are going to find out that Labour remains authoritarian, is moving to be seen as less of a pro-immigration and pro-welfare party, and, most of all, hasn't the faintest intention of reversing a single one of the dreadful Tory cuts which they think are the end of civilised life as we know it, indeed that Balls has cornered himself into a position where he will be forced to admit he plans to cut more. So will they actually vote Labour? Or will they go Green or simply not vote?

    In fact I'm pretty sure this effect is already happening, and explains much of the drop in Labour's poll ratings and the calamitous drop in Miliband's personal ratings even amongst those who say they'll vote Labour.
    I think that's it.

    Ed was supposed to be the lefty Milliband but Union quiche aside hasn't nailed his colours to any lefty policies.

    Nor will he.

    I could live with a genuine lefty opposition (yes frightening for the country but each to their own) but he isn't even that.

    He's a begudging"me-too" on austerity whining that "it's not fair" - which leaves the Labour party nowhere to go.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,587
    JackW said:



    Company policy isn't law. The gentleman should have called the police and the local press and ask them to afford him of their services.

    Agreed. I once left a briefcase on the Tube. I realised it at once, a Tube staff member (one of those bolshy RMT guys, perhaps) called ahead, and it was picked up at the next station and held for me. No charge.

    Interesting YouGov on Syrian's views:

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/doug-rivers/syrian-public-opinion_b_3915550.html

    The Russians are their friends and they don't trust the US.

    That's a fascinating link - impressive effort by YouGov, and sad reading.

    One admires NPXMP's high minded principles re the cockles no joke but I wonder if he would have so willingly confirmed it had it been told by a Labour MP.

    Probably. I declined a minor promotion to become Phil Woolas's PPS because I was unhappy with his line on immigration. But it's the sort of thing that you encounter more with some Tory backbenchers. If it had been a genuinely private conversation rather than a briefing dinner for MPs, I'd probably not have commented - these things are a judgment call but we were there on business.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Krishnan Guru-Murthy @krishgm
    "It's fine for Jeremy Paxman to go grey and grow a beard, but not for a woman" says Harriet Harman. I'm all for more grey women with beards
  • alternative is- they thought labour was too authoritarian, and not left wing enough, couldn't forgive blari/brown for Iraq; but would never vote tory in a million years. felt betrayed by nick going into coalition/tuition fees; labour might be safe again, so they could go back...

    .. except that, at some time between now and May 2015, they are going to find out that Labour remains authoritarian, is moving to be seen as less of a pro-immigration and pro-welfare party, and, most of all, hasn't the faintest intention of reversing a single one of the dreadful Tory cuts which they think are the end of civilised life as we know it, indeed that Balls has cornered himself into a position where he will be forced to admit he plans to cut more. So will they actually vote Labour? Or will they go Green or simply not vote?

    In fact I'm pretty sure this effect is already happening, and explains much of the drop in Labour's poll ratings and the calamitous drop in Miliband's personal ratings even amongst those who say they'll vote Labour.
    you're a betting man, and closer to the action than me. you may be right. Nick P seems convinced they'll vote. It will be fascinating to see how it turns out
  • JackW said:

    JackW said:

    Lib Dems go to conference this weekend in 4th place and 5 points behind UKIP, which must be a little disconcerting - The last time the Lib Dems were lower was July 2012.

    And now the Lib Dem grandee, Lord Oakeshott, has called for Nick Clegg’s removal as leader before the next general election. (isn’t Oakshott their party chairman ?)

    This conference weekend looks as though it’s gearing up to be a humdinger event.

    No Lord Oakeshitt is not LibDem Chairman but he is a legend in his own lunchtime and sometime adviser to Vince.
    Ah tes, Cable's mouthpiece -cheers for the clarification Jack W – best summed up last night when someone said, ‘if Oakshott and Lembit are the only two calling for Clegg’s head, He’s pretty safe’

    As an aside -I trust you and your good lady are in fine fettle ?
    Mrs Jack W presently has wanderlust - again - I blame SeanT, and she is now in robust good health. She probably has a lover - I don't blame SeanT !!

    Yours truly is in middling fettle but better than I should be - I don't have a lover and it certainly wouldn't be SeanT !!

    Good to hear Sir, - Will it be pistols at dawn for the local travel agent or the shoe salesman ?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,192
    tim said:

    @DavidL

    "There is no money"

    Osborne found the money to spend more than Labour did, £120 Billion in housing benefit over the parliament

    So what are you going to do Tim, stop paying millions of people's rent so you can fund more house building by the public sector? Seriously?

    Of course not. The plan is to pay the housing benefit and pay for new public housing. In other words to spend even more. As always.

    I agree that the shortage of housing is a factor in the increase in housing benefit (immigration has probably been a bigger one but there we are). If more first time buyers are helped onto the ladder to buy new homes the pressure on the rented sector will be reduced. The changes in HB brought in by the Coalition (and inevitably opposed by Labour) will help even more.

    But the bottom line is Labour are going to promise a policy that involves huge amounts of additional borrowing. Good luck with that.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    @NickPalmer

    Whilst you're on board Nick what are your views on HS2 ?

    Apologies if I've previously missed a contribution.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    . And we know 2010 LDs vote.

    And we know what they think of Ed Milband...

    It's going to be DAVID CAMERON'S conservatives vs ed miliband's LABOUR

    And it will be two parallel conversations. The Tories will seek to use Miliband to scare UKIPers into their camp; the Tories will be Labour's main calling card. Turnout will be key. The anti-Tory Party, though, has long experience of how and where to deploy its strength. The anti-Miliband party is much newer and maybe less motivated, especially as there seems to be a strong anti-Cameron wing within it (see UKIP voters' views on him).

    Others have commented on this, but I think you are missing the potential for Labour - Con switching.

    In 2010, Labour ran a very good campaign (the less said about the Tory campaign the better). The most memorable pieces for me (admittedly I am atypical) were some very effective youtube pieces - which I think got TV news play as well - showing struggling middle class families losing their benefits/tax credits/etc thanks to the evil Tories.

    To the extent that people were scared into voting Labour because of fear of the unknown, there is the possibility that some of this would unwind after 5 years when they realise the Tories aren't that bad really
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited September 2013

    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    Lib Dems go to conference this weekend in 4th place and 5 points behind UKIP, which must be a little disconcerting - The last time the Lib Dems were lower was July 2012.

    And now the Lib Dem grandee, Lord Oakeshott, has called for Nick Clegg’s removal as leader before the next general election. (isn’t Oakshott their party chairman ?)

    This conference weekend looks as though it’s gearing up to be a humdinger event.

    No Lord Oakeshitt is not LibDem Chairman but he is a legend in his own lunchtime and sometime adviser to Vince.
    Ah tes, Cable's mouthpiece -cheers for the clarification Jack W – best summed up last night when someone said, ‘if Oakshott and Lembit are the only two calling for Clegg’s head, He’s pretty safe’

    As an aside -I trust you and your good lady are in fine fettle ?
    Mrs Jack W presently has wanderlust - again - I blame SeanT, and she is now in robust good health. She probably has a lover - I don't blame SeanT !!

    Yours truly is in middling fettle but better than I should be - I don't have a lover and it certainly wouldn't be SeanT !!

    Good to hear Sir, - Will it be pistols at dawn for the local travel agent or the shoe salesman ?
    Sadly not.

    I regret to report Mrs JackW has got a handle on this new fangled inter-web thingy and a whole new world has opened up for her !!

    Perhaps there's something in this Ukip social liberalism and I should permanently park her next to the Aga !!

  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    SMukesh said:

    Patrick said:

    @SMukesh

    Labour have learnt the lessons and they are going to build houses.Lots of them.

    I have seen no policy statement at all from Labour on how they plan to dismantle the planning laws. (or any other policy for that matter). The ONLY substantive issue stopping house building is planning. Demand is surely there. But building can't take place until plans are granted. 'We'll build houses' is an empty statement. 'We'll massively liberalise planning' would be a solid policy - but not an electorally winning one in MIddle England. And there's the rub.

    Actually there are almost 400000 sites having planning permission to build but with no activity.I think Labour`s policies will start becoming clearer in the next few weeks,so you can judge for yourself.
    I'd like to see a minor tweak to the planning regs so that if ground isn't broken within 2 years of consent then planning is revoked. If houses not completed by 5 years then the site owner is fined. If planning consent is revoked a reapplication is prohibited for 5 years.
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    edited September 2013
    NPXMP.. Sorry, I just do not believe you... it is obvious you spotted an opportunity to do down a political opponent and you took it..totally unprincipled.
    Maybe that's what the voters in Broxstowe spotted last time out
  • PBModeratorPBModerator Posts: 665
    edited September 2013
    Old Labour

    Please don't prejudge the phone hacking trials, directly or indirectly, you have been told before not to do so, please confirm that you understand this instruction.
  • Tim

    Please don't prejudge the phone hacking trials, directly or indirectly, you have repeatedly violated this ruling, please note, if you violate this ruling again, we would like to inform you, we are giving serious consideration, to suspending your posting privileges until after the conclusion of the phone hacking trials.

    Please confirm you understand this instruction.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,098
    Mods

    did one of my posts disappear?

    Was I collateral damage of the phone hacking stricture?
  • TOPPING said:

    Mods

    did one of my posts disappear?

    Was I collateral damage of the phone hacking stricture?

    Yes
  • Plato said:

    Krishnan Guru-Murthy @krishgm
    "It's fine for Jeremy Paxman to go grey and grow a beard, but not for a woman" says Harriet Harman. I'm all for more grey women with beards


    Oh FGS how does Paxman growing a beard become a matter of sexual equality . If that is all HArman can come up with she should retire


  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019

    Plato said:

    Krishnan Guru-Murthy @krishgm
    "It's fine for Jeremy Paxman to go grey and grow a beard, but not for a woman" says Harriet Harman. I'm all for more grey women with beards


    Oh FGS how does Paxman growing a beard become a matter of sexual equality . If that is all HArman can come up with she should retire


    If women stopped following the recent 'style' by shaving, they'd soon grow a beard :-)
  • Blimey. Mike's still at it. Doesn't seem to get it that it's all about floating voters. Reducing GE battlegrounds to 'two battles' is beyond narrowly conceived.
  • re Paxman just watched a few of his reluctant weather reports on youtube! Great viewing
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,098
    edited September 2013

    TOPPING said:

    Mods

    did one of my posts disappear?

    Was I collateral damage of the phone hacking stricture?

    Yes
    ah.

    well then to repeat,

    If Cameron emerges from the coalition shadows with a manifesto espousing small state, individual responsibility; learns how to handle his backbenchers less clumsily; and stays socially to the "left" of the Kippers, he will be rightly front and centre of the GE2015 campaign for the Cons.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    NPXMP.. Sorry, I just do not believe you... it is obvious you spotted an opportunity to do down a political opponent and you took it..totally unprincipled.
    Maybe that's what the voters in Broxstowe spotted last time out

    I have many and robust differences with Nick Palmer but your accusation of unprincipled duplicity does not sit well.

    You might also note that Mr Palmer also enjoyed a considerably lower swing against him than most of his colleagues.

    Generously, perhaps we might say you posted in haste. You should not repent at leisure and I urge you to withdraw your comment forthwith.

  • Whatever happened to liberalism in our universities (and maybe society in general?) . I note that Edinburgh university have banned the playing of Blurred Lines due to inappropriate lyrics
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    edited September 2013
    JW.. NPXMP ratted, snitched...then said it was some form of high minded principle because of the nature of the joke.and said he would have done the same even if the joke teller had been an MP from his own party....pull the other one.
    He also got booted out at the GE.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    tim said:

    TGOHF said:

    tim said:

    TGOHF said:

    tim said:

    TGOHF said:

    David Smith ‏@dsmitheconomics 52m

    LSL-Acadametrics house price index. National rise 3.2% London 7%. Only London had real house price rise year to July:

    No no real terms increase outside London.

    Pay rose by 1.1%
    House prices by 3-6 times that.

    Using the fact that pay is lagging inflation to claim there's no problem is bizarre
    Heh - so if a price rising faster than wages is a "bubble" there must be train fare bubbles and food bubbles and fuel bubbles and clothes bubbles and electronics bubbles and insurance bubbles and coffee bubbles and book bubbles and booze bubbles....

    More bubbles than Michael Jackson's wildest dreams....

    Housing affordability counts.
    In your world if pay goes up by 0.1% but inflation and house prices go up by 10% there's been no real rise in house prices
    Doesn't make it a dangerous bubble that can bring down banks - like what happened under Labour.

    Get your story straight - are house prices endangering banks and heading for a crash or are incomes stagnant due to slow wage recovery ? Clue - it's the latter.

    If the latter than another tax cut for the low paid will surely have your support - unlike the last one which didn't ?




    All irrelevant to the argument
    You want to claim that house prices can double so long as inflation is the same and there's therefore been no rise in housing costs, even if pay hasn't increased one jot

    Don't change the debate - the topic is "bubbles" not the relative cost of an average house to the average wage.

    You are doing a chicken licken impression on here regarding a "bubble" and doom - you were not bemoaning the unfairness of Kensington flats being pricey.



  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Mr Hunt really is taking to this Patient's Champion role with alacrity.

    "Jeremy Hunt has attacked a “computer says no” NHS culture that stops doctors and nurses sharing life-saving information about patients.

    Staff will be given an explicit duty to be more open with patient records when it could improve care, the Health Secretary announced yesterday. Mr Hunt said it was unacceptable that patients failed to get the treatment they needed because bureaucratic rules on data protection meant organisations refused to share data. “There are examples where people have been overzealously interpreting rules on data protection without thinking about what the interests of the patients were,” he said.

    Senior doctors complain that data protection has become the “health and safety of the NHS” as inflexible procedures get in the way of common sense. Patients arriving in A&E often suffer because staff there struggle to access GP records on allergies and existing conditions because of IT failures and confidentiality concerns. “Older people tend to have multiple conditions so for them the ability to talk to people who know their medical history is incredibily important,” Mr Hunt said.“The default should not be ‘computer says no’.” http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/health/news/article3867636.ece
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,098
    JackW said:

    NPXMP.. Sorry, I just do not believe you... it is obvious you spotted an opportunity to do down a political opponent and you took it..totally unprincipled.
    Maybe that's what the voters in Broxstowe spotted last time out

    I have many and robust differences with Nick Palmer but your accusation of unprincipled duplicity does not sit well.

    You might also note that Mr Palmer also enjoyed a considerably lower swing against him than most of his colleagues.

    Generously, perhaps we might say you posted in haste. You should not repent at leisure and I urge you to withdraw your comment forthwith.

    The trouble with NP is that as a seemingly essentially decent bloke plus the fact that he's picturing the moment when he is MP again and his PB comments, one fine day, are splashed in three-inch bold type across the front page of the Daily Mail, his comments can seem a bit, well, essentially decent....
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    JW.. NPXMP ratted, snitched...then said it was some form of high minded principle because of the nature of the joke.and said he would have done the same even if the joke teller had been an MP from his own party....pull the other one.
    He also got booted out at the GE.

    I think it would take a little more than an abusive post from you to "rattle" Nick Palmer.

    Nick gave a full account of the incident down thread including the conclusion that both parties have moved on.

    If you have any evidence to the contrary you should provide it rather than allow your spiteful bile to overwhelm your common sense. Perhaps your best option would be to afford yourself of that old adage - "when in a hole stop digging."

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,854
    Blue_rog said:

    SMukesh said:

    Patrick said:

    @SMukesh

    Labour have learnt the lessons and they are going to build houses.Lots of them.

    I have seen no policy statement at all from Labour on how they plan to dismantle the planning laws. (or any other policy for that matter). The ONLY substantive issue stopping house building is planning. Demand is surely there. But building can't take place until plans are granted. 'We'll build houses' is an empty statement. 'We'll massively liberalise planning' would be a solid policy - but not an electorally winning one in MIddle England. And there's the rub.

    Actually there are almost 400000 sites having planning permission to build but with no activity.I think Labour`s policies will start becoming clearer in the next few weeks,so you can judge for yourself.
    I'd like to see a minor tweak to the planning regs so that if ground isn't broken within 2 years of consent then planning is revoked. If houses not completed by 5 years then the site owner is fined. If planning consent is revoked a reapplication is prohibited for 5 years.
    Does that apply to supermarkets as well?

  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    I would never second guess the decision of a jury. Never! I understand the instruction.

    Old Labour

    Please don't prejudge the phone hacking trials, directly or indirectly, you have been told before not to do so, please confirm that you understand this instruction.

  • Being 'decent' is highly underated .Years ago this site had a more civilised tone than other political forums (I had to migrate from the betfair forum (along with the late URW !) to here to get away from the unthinking hostility of the posts .
    Unfortunately this site has become a little less civilised other the past few years though.
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    edited September 2013
    JW ..Have another pie.. I am not attempting to "Rattle " anyone, let alone a prominent politician.. I just do not think he did the right thing..we disagree..now back in your zimmer old boy.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    What are they playing at?

    "Scotland Yard’s investigation into the “Plebgate” incident is still incomplete almost a year after the confrontation between armed police officers and Andrew Mitchell in Downing Street.

    The Crown Prosecution Service said last night that it did not yet have a complete file of evidence from the Metropolitan Police’s Operation Alice, which is investigating who leaked accounts of the incident to the media and allegations of fabricated evidence. A West Mercia police investigation into the conduct of Police Federation representatives who held a meeting with Mr Mitchell last October is also still continuing.

    The inquiries are under the supervision of the Independent Police Complaints Commission (IPCC). Senior MPs have questioned why investigations into an incident that lasted 45 seconds have been running for 12 months. Yesterday Keith Vaz, chairman of the Home Affairs Committee, wrote to Sir Bernard Hogan-Howe, the Metropolitan Police Commissioner, asking for an explanation..." http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/uk/crime/article3867695.ece
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019

    Blue_rog said:

    SMukesh said:

    Patrick said:

    @SMukesh

    Labour have learnt the lessons and they are going to build houses.Lots of them.

    I have seen no policy statement at all from Labour on how they plan to dismantle the planning laws. (or any other policy for that matter). The ONLY substantive issue stopping house building is planning. Demand is surely there. But building can't take place until plans are granted. 'We'll build houses' is an empty statement. 'We'll massively liberalise planning' would be a solid policy - but not an electorally winning one in MIddle England. And there's the rub.

    Actually there are almost 400000 sites having planning permission to build but with no activity.I think Labour`s policies will start becoming clearer in the next few weeks,so you can judge for yourself.
    I'd like to see a minor tweak to the planning regs so that if ground isn't broken within 2 years of consent then planning is revoked. If houses not completed by 5 years then the site owner is fined. If planning consent is revoked a reapplication is prohibited for 5 years.
    Does that apply to supermarkets as well?

    I don't see why not. The planning process should investigate all the pros and cons of granting consent and after the process is finished there should be no barriers to starting a build. If I submitted a planning application for a modification to my house, I wouldn't wait for years to start it after consent had been given.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    It is difficult being in a different time zone and a place where they have the First Amendment.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution
  • Its amazing how a little thing like 'Plebgate' can be blown up into a multi million pound industry of lawyers, police work ,cabinet reshuffles etc. Actually its not amazing its ridiculous and , to me. shows there is a lot of deadwood to be cut from certain areas of society and the state
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,475
    Plato said:

    WTF were Stagecoach thinking of?

    A disabled man was asked to pay £30 to retrieve his lost wallet from a bus company. Arthur Adlam, 31, had just drawn his disability allowance and had around £225 in his wallet when he accidentally left it behind on the bus.

    But his panic quickly turned to disbeleif when he was told that though his property had been handed in, it would cost him almost £30 to get it back. Father-of-four Arthur, 31, left the wallet on the seat of a Stagecoach bus in his home town of Dunfermline, Fife.

    But staff at the bus station told him it was company policy to take a 12 per cent cut plus a 50p 'admin fee' - a total of £27.50 - just to get it back. Furious Mr Adlam said: 'It’s an outrage. They told me they couldn’t give it back without charging me. 'They charged me for something that doesn’t belong to them. No one should pay to get their own money back.'

    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2418619/Bus-company-takes-12-PER-CENT-cut-money-inside-disabled-passenger-s-wallet-left-seat.html#ixzz2el05bRFt

    He should simply have told them that as they planned to help themselves to his money without his consent he was referring them to the police for theft.

  • Anyone betting on the Dunfermline by-election? VC and Ladbrokes have markets up, and they seem to think it's going to Labour. I wonder whether writing off the SNP here is a bit premature?
  • VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,551
    I note that Labour have selected ex-MP (1997-2005) Kerry Pollard to fight St Albans at the next general election.

    Currently Labour are in third place, but this may reduce the chances of Sandy Walkington (Lib Dem) taking the seat from Anne Main (Conservatives).

    Not sure if UKIP have selected yet.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    I imagine that IDS would not only approve the man's money being taken from him, but have his peg leg sent to the pawn broker as well.
    Cyclefree said:

    Plato said:

    WTF were Stagecoach thinking of?

    A disabled man was asked to pay £30 to retrieve his lost wallet from a bus company. Arthur Adlam, 31, had just drawn his disability allowance and had around £225 in his wallet when he accidentally left it behind on the bus.

    But his panic quickly turned to disbeleif when he was told that though his property had been handed in, it would cost him almost £30 to get it back. Father-of-four Arthur, 31, left the wallet on the seat of a Stagecoach bus in his home town of Dunfermline, Fife.

    But staff at the bus station told him it was company policy to take a 12 per cent cut plus a 50p 'admin fee' - a total of £27.50 - just to get it back. Furious Mr Adlam said: 'It’s an outrage. They told me they couldn’t give it back without charging me. 'They charged me for something that doesn’t belong to them. No one should pay to get their own money back.'

    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2418619/Bus-company-takes-12-PER-CENT-cut-money-inside-disabled-passenger-s-wallet-left-seat.html#ixzz2el05bRFt

    He should simply have told them that as they planned to help themselves to his money without his consent he was referring them to the police for theft.

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,854
    edited September 2013

    Its amazing how a little thing like 'Plebgate' can be blown up into a multi million pound industry of lawyers, police work ,cabinet reshuffles etc. Actually its not amazing its ridiculous and , to me. shows there is a lot of deadwood to be cut from certain areas of society and the state

    Surely the delay in doing so it suggests the police are less than enthusiastic about investigating themselves. Alternatively, perhaps, they don't regard it as important.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,192
    tim said:

    @DavidL.

    Up until forty years ago the state used to spend its housing budget 10% on housing benefit, 90% of housebuilding.
    Now it's 90% on benefit 10% on building.

    That situation has to be reversed.

    Up to 40 years ago we did not have 5m+ of our fellow citizens dependent upon state payouts of various descriptions. We had far fewer pensioners, far less unemployment, far greater family structures that provided for those that were in need. It was a different and, although poorer overall, in some ways a better society.

    But we are where we are. And where we are is that record numbers of people need their rent paid for them. Building more houses will not change that although it might take the steam out of any upward pressure on rents. The cheapest and best way of doing this is what Osborne is doing. We cannot afford to do any more. Hopefully we will not even have to do that.

  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    edited September 2013
    tim said:


    BNP Paribas Real Estate Cardiff Business School General Housing & The Economy report
    House prices in the UK are set to rise by a cumulative 33% between 2007 and the end of 2017, according to BNP Paribas Real Estate’s Housing & The Economy report.

    i.e. 2.9% per annum. And that includes London. Quelle horreur.
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019

    Its amazing how a little thing like 'Plebgate' can be blown up into a multi million pound industry of lawyers, police work ,cabinet reshuffles etc. Actually its not amazing its ridiculous and , to me. shows there is a lot of deadwood to be cut from certain areas of society and the state

    Surely the delay in doing so it suggests the police are less than enthusiastic about investigating themselves. Alternatively, perhaps, they don't regard it as important.
    Absolutely. Destroying someone's career and health to further a political agenda is completely unimportant.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    For PB's scientists :^ )

    " Last night’s Ig Noble ceremony was the 23rd, and a highlight was a four-act opera about an engineer who designed a centrifuge to spin pregnant mothers at high velocity, to aid in giving birth. The awards are usually received in person, and most scientists are happy to come along to enjoy the company of such illustrious past laureates as Andre Geim, who has a Nobel for discovering graphene and an Ig Nobel for discovering that you can magnetically levitate a frog.

    The 2013 Peace laureates, however, were notably absent. The award was shared between President Lukashenko of Belarus, for outlawing applause, and the Belarussian state police, who managed to arrest a one-armed man for violating that law.

    Professor Brad Bushman said that he was delighted to be in such distinguished company, even if Mr Lukashenko could not be there in person. His paper, Beauty is in the Eye of the Beer Holder: People Who Think they are Drunk also Think they are Attractive, “extends previous research that shows drunk people think others are more attractive, to show they also think they themselves are more attractive,” he said. “They’re not, actually.” http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/science/article3867567.ece
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    edited September 2013
    Lanont criticised the SNP governmet for selling land to a guy for about GPB50000, but now the focus is why did the SLAB government sell it for GBP 1 million before the 2007 election in the first place.

    Anyone betting on the Dunfermline by-election? VC and Ladbrokes have markets up, and they seem to think it's going to Labour. I wonder whether writing off the SNP here is a bit premature?

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    tim - the sky isn't falling - as you might see if you looked at bank borrowing levels.

    take off the tin foil hat.

  • Its amazing how a little thing like 'Plebgate' can be blown up into a multi million pound industry of lawyers, police work ,cabinet reshuffles etc. Actually its not amazing its ridiculous and , to me. shows there is a lot of deadwood to be cut from certain areas of society and the state

    Actually, all this demonstrates is that ‘police investigations’ can, at times be very slow and laborious.
    However, this is not some huge international fraud case involving multiple Government agencies – They are dragging their feet and Keith Vaz is quite right to boot them up the proverbial.
  • To me the stagecoach meanness shows that society uses the concept of money too much and forgets the joy of pure happiness . Whoever ,on behalf of statecoach, could have took great joy in handing back a full wallet to a grateful and happy recipient and both could have had a warm feelign of joy. However becasue its 'company policy' and money has to be involved somehow in a sordid cut of the stakes then we have a argument ,an unhappy person who no doubt feels the loss of human generousity as much as 12% of his wallet contents and Stagecoach being branded a misery guts.

    Tip -take the matter of money out of more things and people will be happier - do not charge for parking at hospitals or parks , do not try and fine confused motorists hundreds of pounds for simple mistakes (that on is for councils) , do not implement that god awful petition about making 'financial' lessons compulsory in school.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724

    I note that Labour have selected ex-MP (1997-2005) Kerry Pollard to fight St Albans at the next general election.

    Currently Labour are in third place, but this may reduce the chances of Sandy Walkington (Lib Dem) taking the seat from Anne Main (Conservatives).

    Not sure if UKIP have selected yet.

    I knew Sandy Walkington in a previous professional walk of life and what a tedious old woman he was - and a backstabber with it. There aren't many people who stick in my mind as *people to avoid* - he's one of them. I'm sure several LDs will jump to his defence - but once bitten twice shy in my experience.
  • tim said:


    Benefit dependency trebled under Margaret Thatcher and the housing budget started to become a benefit budget, social mobility stalled as a result largely of asset inflation which of course helps the wealthy coupled with an increasing shortage of affordable housing which distorts the economy and cripples both geographical and social mobility of labour.
    That has to be reversed, but you're a Tory benefit spending junky who has convinced himself that the UK housing market is somehow a free market,despite it being dependent on state control of supply and state subsidised demand, so I think you'll be one of the last to see it.

    no mainstream politician is really in favour of social mobility
  • His anyone seen this article on children's homes? That Bexley figure is eyewatering.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10305488/Gove-Absurd-secrecy-left-care-children-at-mercy-of-paedophiles.html
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724

    His anyone seen this article on children's homes? That Bexley figure is eyewatering.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10305488/Gove-Absurd-secrecy-left-care-children-at-mercy-of-paedophiles.html

    I read it earlier to much WTFery. He's spot on here.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    His anyone seen this article on children's homes? T

    Why don;t they save a load of money and send these children to public schools?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,192
    tim said:

    DavidL said:

    tim said:

    @DavidL.

    Up until forty years ago the state used to spend its housing budget 10% on housing benefit, 90% of housebuilding.
    Now it's 90% on benefit 10% on building.

    That situation has to be reversed.

    Up to 40 years ago we did not have 5m+ of our fellow citizens dependent upon state payouts of various descriptions. We had far fewer pensioners, far less unemployment, far greater family structures that provided for those that were in need. It was a different and, although poorer overall, in some ways a better society.

    But we are where we are. And where we are is that record numbers of people need their rent paid for them. Building more houses will not change that although it might take the steam out of any upward pressure on rents. The cheapest and best way of doing this is what Osborne is doing. We cannot afford to do any more. Hopefully we will not even have to do that.


    Benefit dependency trebled under Margaret Thatcher and the housing budget started to become a benefit budget, social mobility stalled as a result largely of asset inflation which of course helps the wealthy coupled with an increasing shortage of affordable housing which distorts the economy and cripples both geographical and social mobility of labour.
    That has to be reversed, but you're a Tory benefit spending junky who has convinced himself that the UK housing market is somehow a free market,despite it being dependent on state control of supply and state subsidised demand, so I think you'll be one of the last to see it.
    Tell me how many hundreds of thousands of rents Labour are going to stop paying to fund the building of new council houses. Without that it is just wind.

    You do remember that Margaret Thatcher is dead? And left office more than 20 years ago? And that we had a Labour government for the majority of those 20 odd years?
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    taffys said:

    His anyone seen this article on children's homes? T

    Why don;t they save a load of money and send these children to public schools?

    It'd be a lot more effective.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    For our Dr Who fans

    RT @Lee_JM75: All 11 Doctors rendered as Muppets. Quite brilliant. pic.twitter.com/aeSC1NC8E0
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    Legal question from the USA

    1. If i were in the UK

    Would I

    a) associate with law abiding citizens, so that I could be traduced
    or

    b) be an associate of Whitey Bulger (google it) where nobody could mention my name or poor choice of associates or question my judgement.

    Answer on a postcard please.
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    edited September 2013
    Plato said:

    His anyone seen this article on children's homes? That Bexley figure is eyewatering.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10305488/Gove-Absurd-secrecy-left-care-children-at-mercy-of-paedophiles.html

    I read it earlier to much WTFery. He's spot on here.
    "According to the figures, one council — Bexley in Kent — spent more than £58,000 a week per child — £3 million each — on specialist privately run homes last year."

    Surely this merits some further detail. How do you spend £58,000 a week? I mean, even if they were running an entire home (and I note to my satisfaction that many fewer home now operate and that although poor the adoption and I think foster rates are rising) for just one child I still don't see how you end up paying £3m a year.
This discussion has been closed.