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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tick Tock Two. There is more than one countdown taking place
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tick Tock Two. There is more than one countdown taking place
Earlier this week I wrote about the likelihood that Britain will leave the EU on the current scheduled date of 29 March 2019. My logic was simple: the timetable is preset, adjusting it requires the consent of a lot of different parties and there is no sign yet that many people in Britain have changed their minds. You can still back that proposition at 5/4 on Betfair and it still looks to me to be outstanding value.
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Edited extra bit: Mr. Rentool, you just ruined what could've been a perfect opening to this thread, with your silly edit.
But gormlessness (spelling?) is not, say, war mongering.
* Some of this will come out in the wash next month - the underlying figures aren't bad at all.
https://twitter.com/ONS/status/966245929589362688
Titter - self awareness still a far away planet for Continuity Remain.
The article is a fantasy. People move on from past events - the Iraq war caused a massive schism in society but in 2018 it's only relevant in the darkest twitter feeds of Corbynite loons.
And that is where "rejoin" is heading. By 2025 other issues, topics, problems will be front and centre and only the slowly rocking wide eyed unemployed European law graduate sitting in the corner of the last remaining branch of Belgo dreaming of the day where we handed over £10Bn so Tony Blair could win a bike race will give an Aylesbury duck about rejoining.
Since then it has osciallated (Someone linked the graph a few freds back..). Who knows where support will be in the future. I expect further oscillation but broadly in favour of the EU and against the status quo, the grass being greener springs to mind. Just as it was post 73...
Political logic suggests that the best way for them to stay relevant is to argue against the UK union - particularly if they blame Northern Ireland for scuppering their dream Brexit.
Funny old world.
Rejoining once we’ve left will mean signing up to the Euro, domestic budgets approved by Brussels, financial services taxes paid directly to Brussels, an EU military, a massive relaxation of the new status quo of immigration rules and the ripping up of the trade deals we only just signed. Will as many as 20% be up for that?
Those figures are a guess but liberal brexiteers are probably over-represented in media facing positions to the population norm.
I'd suggest any adjective before Brexit is open to interpretation - but new ones are always fun.
Spicy Brexit
Bouncy Brexit
Rubbery Brexit
Brittle Brexit
Personally I'd go for a delicious Brexit.
1. I was outwitted by a bunch of utter morons.
2. I am certain a rematch would go the same way, so my only option is to sit on my arse for years in the hope of a default.
keep 'em coming!
You can see the side of the bus now. "EU membership fees of £500m a week? And you want which hospitals to close to pay for this?"
I expect that to settle down once the outcome is clear, and the policy direction of a post-Brexit Britain is clear. The Government can then start to focus on the wins.
I could be wrong but I also think that the longer it is since Brexit occurred the less salience the right/wrong question will have, which will tend to diminish "wrong" over time as people start to disassociate it from any perceived failings of the incumbent administration.
He does mention a "liberal global future" - but the word "Brexit" will soon become useful only for the past tense - a phrase only for those that have 'spent far too long fighting the last battle'.
Chief exec of Save the Children resigns after harassing young female staff, then goes to work as an executive at UNICEF instead, on another six figure salary.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/02/20/save-children-boss-quit-admitting-sending-inappropriate-texts/
Once again I point out to him that the Leave campaign during the referendum made clear that "taking back control" of our laws and borders meant leaving the Single Market, that the Remain propaganda booklet sent to all homes stated that leaving the EU meant leaving the Single Market, that his argument therefore that people on voted for a generality -leaving the EU -and not for a specific leaving of the Single Market -is nonsensical and disingenuous.
I point out too that all polls of leavers since the referendum has identified control of our laws and borders as central to their decision, and that cannot be achieved by staying in the Single Market.
So enough of the "Liberal Brexit" nonsense. What Remoaners want is Phoney Brexit.
Time is running out for the Remoaners.
Also, Napoleon's defeat involved the British opposing the overweening pride of a jumped up Corsican who wanted to create a European Empire against the wishes of the people.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/jul/31/two-men-jailed-in-uk-for-horsemeat-conspiracy
Three top bods from Oxfam appeared in front of MPs yesterday to discuss the Haiti sex scandal in 2010, when workers allegedly entertained local prostitutes days after an earthquake in which 200,000 people died.
You thought your money was going on food and blankets? How quaintly old-fashioned.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5415193/QUENTIN-LETTS-watches-blame-dodging-Oxfam-elite-action.html
There's no particular issue with an EU common foreign policy, an EU military (pooling defence spending makes sense, if the level was set high enough). European specialisation in different areas would makes sense; the Belgian military is a joke, but we'd probably make better use of their defence contribution. Some countries have an issue with NATO's mission creep, and a defensive force a la Japan probably suits the EU psyche better.
If you look at EU country economic performance, the A8 and A2 countries are going gangbusters; the economic differential between (say) Poland and the UK is much narrower than it was and this would naturally moderate immigration flows over time.
If the UK modified its absurdly and indiscriminately generous health and welfare systems towards EU norms, the flow would drop even further. The next batch of accession countries would attract transitional controls (I assume we've learned our lesson).
For me the issue is that we'd need to give up the pound if we weren't to simply recapitulate a lot of our current issues; the EU is, and will increasingly be, a Euro club. The direction of travel is very clear - the French and Germans are now pushing for a harmonised corporate tax regime and Macron will doubtless want his other proposals pushed through too. Moisovici has already told Ireland that their veto cannot hold up the EZ indefinitely.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/02/28/michael-gove-could-be-set-to-play-the-role-of-brutus-to-david-camerons-caesar/
Yet 'collective security' has cost us nearer to 2% than to 1%. So it's been more expensive than for the countries whose policy is self-defence only, non-intervention in other countries unless the Security Council asks for it, etc.
When the (former) Deutschmark was strong against the poiund in the 70’s and 80’s, and German tax laws worked in their favour, the likes of the cast of Auf Weidersehn Pet went working in the Bundesrepublik.
As the pound slides now closer to parity with the euro coming to the UK is going to be less attrractive to West Europeans and the rate against the zloty has deteriorated, althouigh, TBF, it’s improving a bit lately.
There was also a somewhat dishonest campaign on matters European in some of the Press. Straight bananas, anyone!
What the proprietorship of these papers is aiming at is power, and power without responsibility — the prerogative of the harlot throughout the ages.
Baldwin was attacking the leading press barons of his day (Lord Beaverbrook and Lord Rothermere); the phrase was suggested by Baldwin's cousin Rudyard Kipling (17 March 1931), quoted in The Times (18 March 1931), p. 18.
Given the problems we are storing up - that doesn’t seem unlikely at all.
If Brexit turns out to be a success or even a bit meh rejoining is off the table.
If Brexit turns out to be a disaster then the voters will join replete with Euro et al.
As the dementia tax showed voters aren’t keen on being poorer for the greater good despite what they tell the posters.
Was it mentioned at the recent European Security conference?
Mr. Eagles (2), you're aware that Brutus was in favour of freedom for the people of Rome, rather than perpetual dictatorship? Interesting you compare him to Gove, placing his nation before his friend.
'New blow to spy smears as German authorities reveal there isn’t a Stasi file on Jeremy Corbyn'
https://tinyurl.com/ycwa663z
So a bit of a damp squib, really. In two or three years' time, it's not going to be the massive issue which it seems to be now. Never underestimate the power of boredom in politics. The circus will move on.
Also the idea that "Brexit" is a stasis from which we cannot improve or ruin our position is a myth.
EU membership has been a continually movable feast since '75 - not a fixed position.
Thank you for making my point. You just reached the wrong conclusion.
The most interesting part of the whole show for me was the the reference made to the NFU conference, and its first female president Minette Batters. They made the point that she would be president at a terribly turbulent time, due to Brexit of course. CAP subsidies would be ending, and their replacement only guaranteed until 2022 (I believe..) by the government. Would she be able to persuade people that, after this date, farmers were more worthy of the money than, say, the NHS?
What's that BBC? You're saying that after Brexit we'll be able to decide how we spend the money that we now send to the EU?
Someone should put that on a bus
They’ll pay them again for those reasons if the economy tanks because of Brexit.
chickenin every pot.As for deceit, you might want to recall Caesar massacred almost half a million Germanian tribesmen during peace negotiations.
Year on year, 114,000 people entered the workforce.
Not sure that tells us much about immigration (some of whom won't be part of the workforce!)
There will be no status quo ante EU to rejoin. At least if we did rejoin it would be completely out in the open, as opposed to the 'boiled frog' approach that was used post 1987.
You'll always have Jan 'Live Aid' Sarkocy.