Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the day of BoJo’s big Brexit speech the TMay successor bett

24

Comments

  • We speak a lot of Remain and Leave voters but I wonder if we should have a third category for those in between...
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,491
    What happened to the comical Brexiteers we used to get like Paul_Bedfordshire with his food self-sufficiency calculations (which counted Ireland as ours), and the man from Gibraltar posting imprecations against Spain?
  • stevefstevef Posts: 1,044
    I think that sooner or later Remoaners will have to come to terms with the fact that the UK is leaving the EU and that we are leaving not only in name but in reality. All those devious little ways that the Mafia in Brussels tries to exert control over non EU countries will be swept away.

    At some point Remoaners will have to make the crossover from attempting to stop Brexit (which would be undemocratic) to campaigning to re-enter one day (which would not).

    The first step on the campaign to re-enter would be to capture the main opposition party for re-entry. It will never be of any use to those who wish to re-enter the EU so long as it is led by a Leaver who voted against EVERY EU treaty for 30 years, and who facilitated Leave by failing to campaign for Remain.
  • Roses are red

    Violets are blue

    I'm for the many

    Not just the few

    Roses are red,
    Violets are blue,
    BREXIT, BREXIT, GOD DAMN BREXIT,
    For all of you

    By AlastairMeeks

    PS....BREXIT, BREXIT, BREXIT, BREXIT, BREXIT, BREXIT, BREXIT, BREXIT, BREXIT, BREXIT, BREXIT, BREXIT...
    I'd hope I could do a bit better than that. Something like:

    Tories are blue
    Kippers are violet
    Brexit means PB will operate
    For the next ten years on automatic pilot.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,152

    We speak a lot of Remain and Leave voters but I wonder if we should have a third category for those in between...

    Surely there would be at least 24 categories in between? :tongue:
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,836
    Scott_P said:
    Nails it. From a friend of Brexit and, in the past, of Boris, too.
  • Roses are red,
    Violets are blue,
    Here's a link to a tweet,
    To say how much I love you

    By ScottP

    PS...Its not a retweet, don't call it a retweet...
  • stevefstevef Posts: 1,044
    tlg86 said:

    We speak a lot of Remain and Leave voters but I wonder if we should have a third category for those in between...

    Surely there would be at least 24 categories in between? :tongue:
    Those in between are those who accept the referendum result regardless of their own view.

    They are called : Democrats.
  • Corbyn is red,
    McDonnell is too.
    If you think they're Remain,
    I've a bridge to sell you.
  • stevefstevef Posts: 1,044
    If Remainers are red,
    and Brexiteers are blue,
    Why for 30 years did Corbyn
    Vote against the EU?
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    stevef said:

    I think that sooner or later Remoaners will have to come to terms with the fact that the UK is leaving the EU and that we are leaving not only in name but in reality. All those devious little ways that the Mafia in Brussels tries to exert control over non EU countries will be swept away.

    At some point Remoaners will have to make the crossover from attempting to stop Brexit (which would be undemocratic) to campaigning to re-enter one day (which would not).

    The first step on the campaign to re-enter would be to capture the main opposition party for re-entry. It will never be of any use to those who wish to re-enter the EU so long as it is led by a Leaver who voted against EVERY EU treaty for 30 years, and who facilitated Leave by failing to campaign for Remain.

    Sound strategy but tactically difficult given the size of the Labour Party. The Conservative Party is an easier target, although being less democratically organised it would take longer to get your hands on the right levers.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,840
    stevef said:

    I think that sooner or later Remoaners will have to come to terms with the fact that the UK is leaving the EU and that we are leaving not only in name but in reality. All those devious little ways that the Mafia in Brussels tries to exert control over non EU countries will be swept away.

    At some point Remoaners will have to make the crossover from attempting to stop Brexit (which would be undemocratic) to campaigning to re-enter one day (which would not).

    The first step on the campaign to re-enter would be to capture the main opposition party for re-entry. It will never be of any use to those who wish to re-enter the EU so long as it is led by a Leaver who voted against EVERY EU treaty for 30 years, and who facilitated Leave by failing to campaign for Remain.

    So if I'm getting this straight, your ideal situation would be for Labour not to have had Jezza as leader and, say, Cooper or Burnham there instead, and then the UK to have voted to stay in the EU?

    Is that right?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,083
    Corbyn is red,
    Theresa May blue,
    Uncle Vince said
    Please think of me too.
  • stevef said:

    I think that sooner or later Remoaners will have to come to terms with the fact that the UK is leaving the EU and that we are leaving not only in name but in reality. All those devious little ways that the Mafia in Brussels tries to exert control over non EU countries will be swept away.

    At some point Remoaners will have to make the crossover from attempting to stop Brexit (which would be undemocratic) to campaigning to re-enter one day (which would not).

    The first step on the campaign to re-enter would be to capture the main opposition party for re-entry. It will never be of any use to those who wish to re-enter the EU so long as it is led by a Leaver who voted against EVERY EU treaty for 30 years, and who facilitated Leave by failing to campaign for Remain.

    Sound strategy but tactically difficult given the size of the Labour Party. The Conservative Party is an easier target, although being less democratically organised it would take longer to get your hands on the right levers.
    It's certainly true that the Conservative party has most of the right Leavers I would like to get my hands on.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited February 2018
    IanB2 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Nails it. From a friend of Brexit and, in the past, of Boris, too.
    Yep, that is a very astute deconstruction.

    I'm increasingly of the view that Boris is quite simply a ditherer. He seems to see all sides of an argument, he can quite happily argue against himself, and when push comes to shove, he seems to bottle it. That's why he sometimes seems to be about to launch his move against Theresa but always seems to draw back. When it came to deciding which side to back before the referendum, he agonised over it, famously wrote two articles one on each side, and didn't decide until the last moment. That's in contrast to Gove who (according to the account in Tim Shipman's book) was clear in his decision, even if he hated the fact that it meant opposing Cameron.
  • stevefstevef Posts: 1,044
    TOPPING said:

    stevef said:

    I think that sooner or later Remoaners will have to come to terms with the fact that the UK is leaving the EU and that we are leaving not only in name but in reality. All those devious little ways that the Mafia in Brussels tries to exert control over non EU countries will be swept away.

    At some point Remoaners will have to make the crossover from attempting to stop Brexit (which would be undemocratic) to campaigning to re-enter one day (which would not).

    The first step on the campaign to re-enter would be to capture the main opposition party for re-entry. It will never be of any use to those who wish to re-enter the EU so long as it is led by a Leaver who voted against EVERY EU treaty for 30 years, and who facilitated Leave by failing to campaign for Remain.

    So if I'm getting this straight, your ideal situation would be for Labour not to have had Jezza as leader and, say, Cooper or Burnham there instead, and then the UK to have voted to stay in the EU?

    Is that right?
    My ideal situation is for the People to vote in a democratic referendum and for everyone to accept the result -as I would have done if Remain has won.

    I dont know about Cooper, but I think if Burnham had been Labour leader -or Chuka Umunna in 2016 and as Leader of the Opposition he had campaigned vigorously for Remain, my side would have lost. There would have been no Brexit. And I would have accepted the result.

    On referendum night leavers of all political persuasions toasted Jeremy Corbyn. He had proved a useful idiot to the Leave cause.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,614
    Andrew said:

    Sean_F said:


    I think May will be leading the Conservatives into the 2027 general election.

    It seems absurd at first glance, but I think you might be right (and I'm no fan ether).

    Unless, of course, health issues get in the way - she'd be 71 then.
    My guess is that she will resign after the 2022 election, which, from where we are now, I'd guess will be another hung parlaiment, maybe with a non-Corbyn Labour as the largest party (hence her departure at that point).

    Of course, prediction is very difficult, especially about the future. :smile:
  • stevefstevef Posts: 1,044
    If Jeremy Corbyn ever became prime minister, it would be the first time in our history that a Leaver would be in charge of the country. May, Cameron, Brown, Blair, Major, Thatcher, Callaghan, Wiloson and Heath were all believers of British membership.

    Only Corbyn voted against every EU treaty for 30 years. Only Corbyn voted against the creation of the EU.

    Remoaners should be careful what they wish for.............................
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,614
    stevef said:

    TOPPING said:

    stevef said:

    I think that sooner or later Remoaners will have to come to terms with the fact that the UK is leaving the EU and that we are leaving not only in name but in reality. All those devious little ways that the Mafia in Brussels tries to exert control over non EU countries will be swept away.

    At some point Remoaners will have to make the crossover from attempting to stop Brexit (which would be undemocratic) to campaigning to re-enter one day (which would not).

    The first step on the campaign to re-enter would be to capture the main opposition party for re-entry. It will never be of any use to those who wish to re-enter the EU so long as it is led by a Leaver who voted against EVERY EU treaty for 30 years, and who facilitated Leave by failing to campaign for Remain.

    So if I'm getting this straight, your ideal situation would be for Labour not to have had Jezza as leader and, say, Cooper or Burnham there instead, and then the UK to have voted to stay in the EU?

    Is that right?
    My ideal situation is for the People to vote in a democratic referendum and for everyone to accept the result -as I would have done if Remain has won.

    I dont know about Cooper, but I think if Burnham had been Labour leader -or Chuka Umunna in 2016 and as Leader of the Opposition he had campaigned vigorously for Remain, my side would have lost. There would have been no Brexit. And I would have accepted the result.

    On referendum night leavers of all political persuasions toasted Jeremy Corbyn. He had proved a useful idiot to the Leave cause.
    I'm happy to believe that you would have accepted a Remain result Steve but neither Farage and his Kippers nor the Tory europhobes would have accepted it; they would have gone campaiging.

    Regarding the actual result, as a devout Remainer I accept it and recognise we sadly have to leave... but there's no reason why we cannot do that with the softest of soft Brexits. We didn't vote to leave the single market or the customs union. Norway are not in the EU but in the single market - a Norwegian solution would have been very sensible but the tory europhobes have pushed the government into a corner that satisfies only the extremists imo.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    Mr Meeks,

    Define fascist? ... "A fascist is a follower of a political philosophy characterized by authoritarian views and a strong central government — and no tolerance for opposing opinions." That would include Stalin and Mao.

    Mr Meeks' definition ... Anyone who votes Leave. At least that has clarity.


  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,114

    stevef said:

    I think that sooner or later Remoaners will have to come to terms with the fact that the UK is leaving the EU and that we are leaving not only in name but in reality. All those devious little ways that the Mafia in Brussels tries to exert control over non EU countries will be swept away.

    At some point Remoaners will have to make the crossover from attempting to stop Brexit (which would be undemocratic) to campaigning to re-enter one day (which would not).

    The first step on the campaign to re-enter would be to capture the main opposition party for re-entry. It will never be of any use to those who wish to re-enter the EU so long as it is led by a Leaver who voted against EVERY EU treaty for 30 years, and who facilitated Leave by failing to campaign for Remain.

    Sound strategy but tactically difficult given the size of the Labour Party. The Conservative Party is an easier target, although being less democratically organised it would take longer to get your hands on the right levers.
    It's certainly true that the Conservative party has most of the right Leavers I would like to get my hands on.
    :)
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,614
    stevef said:

    If Jeremy Corbyn ever became prime minister, it would be the first time in our history that a Leaver would be in charge of the country. May, Cameron, Brown, Blair, Major, Thatcher, Callaghan, Wiloson and Heath were all believers of British membership.

    Only Corbyn voted against every EU treaty for 30 years. Only Corbyn voted against the creation of the EU.

    Remoaners should be careful what they wish for.............................

    "Remoaners..." You just don't get it do you?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,908

    stevef said:

    TOPPING said:

    stevef said:

    I think that sooner or later Remoaners will have to come to terms with the fact that the UK is leaving the EU and that we are leaving not only in name but in reality. All those devious little ways that the Mafia in Brussels tries to exert control over non EU countries will be swept away.

    At some point Remoaners will have to make the crossover from attempting to stop Brexit (which would be undemocratic) to campaigning to re-enter one day (which would not).

    The first step on the campaign to re-enter would be to capture the main opposition party for re-entry. It will never be of any use to those who wish to re-enter the EU so long as it is led by a Leaver who voted against EVERY EU treaty for 30 years, and who facilitated Leave by failing to campaign for Remain.

    So if I'm getting this straight, your ideal situation would be for Labour not to have had Jezza as leader and, say, Cooper or Burnham there instead, and then the UK to have voted to stay in the EU?

    Is that right?
    My ideal situation is for the People to vote in a democratic referendum and for everyone to accept the result -as I would have done if Remain has won.

    I dont know about Cooper, but I think if Burnham had been Labour leader -or Chuka Umunna in 2016 and as Leader of the Opposition he had campaigned vigorously for Remain, my side would have lost. There would have been no Brexit. And I would have accepted the result.

    On referendum night leavers of all political persuasions toasted Jeremy Corbyn. He had proved a useful idiot to the Leave cause.
    I'm happy to believe that you would have accepted a Remain result Steve but neither Farage and his Kippers nor the Tory europhobes would have accepted it; they would have gone campaiging.

    Regarding the actual result, as a devout Remainer I accept it and recognise we sadly have to leave... but there's no reason why we cannot do that with the softest of soft Brexits. We didn't vote to leave the single market or the customs union. Norway are not in the EU but in the single market - a Norwegian solution would have been very sensible but the tory europhobes have pushed the government into a corner that satisfies only the extremists imo.
    Hm, let me just grab that clip of both side saying a vote to leave would be to leave the single market.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704

    We speak a lot of Remain and Leave voters but I wonder if we should have a third category for those in between...

    Breams, fish that do not know which way to swim?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,114
    Pulpstar said:

    Corbyn is red,
    Theresa May blue,
    Uncle Vince said
    Please think of me too.

    Uncle Vince said x,
    And everyone else said, 'WHO'?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,491
    RobD said:

    stevef said:

    TOPPING said:

    stevef said:

    I think that sooner or later Remoaners will have to come to terms with the fact that the UK is leaving the EU and that we are leaving not only in name but in reality. All those devious little ways that the Mafia in Brussels tries to exert control over non EU countries will be swept away.

    At some point Remoaners will have to make the crossover from attempting to stop Brexit (which would be undemocratic) to campaigning to re-enter one day (which would not).

    The first step on the campaign to re-enter would be to capture the main opposition party for re-entry. It will never be of any use to those who wish to re-enter the EU so long as it is led by a Leaver who voted against EVERY EU treaty for 30 years, and who facilitated Leave by failing to campaign for Remain.

    So if I'm getting this straight, your ideal situation would be for Labour not to have had Jezza as leader and, say, Cooper or Burnham there instead, and then the UK to have voted to stay in the EU?

    Is that right?
    My ideal situation is for the People to vote in a democratic referendum and for everyone to accept the result -as I would have done if Remain has won.

    I dont know about Cooper, but I think if Burnham had been Labour leader -or Chuka Umunna in 2016 and as Leader of the Opposition he had campaigned vigorously for Remain, my side would have lost. There would have been no Brexit. And I would have accepted the result.

    On referendum night leavers of all political persuasions toasted Jeremy Corbyn. He had proved a useful idiot to the Leave cause.
    I'm happy to believe that you would have accepted a Remain result Steve but neither Farage and his Kippers nor the Tory europhobes would have accepted it; they would have gone campaiging.

    Regarding the actual result, as a devout Remainer I accept it and recognise we sadly have to leave... but there's no reason why we cannot do that with the softest of soft Brexits. We didn't vote to leave the single market or the customs union. Norway are not in the EU but in the single market - a Norwegian solution would have been very sensible but the tory europhobes have pushed the government into a corner that satisfies only the extremists imo.
    Hm, let me just grab that clip of both side saying a vote to leave would be to leave the single market.
    Daniel Hannan said that only "tendentious pro-Europeans" said it would mean that.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,614
    RobD said:

    stevef said:

    TOPPING said:

    stevef said:

    I think that sooner or later Remoaners will have to come to terms with the fact that the UK is leaving the EU and that we are leaving not only in name but in reality. All those devious little ways that the Mafia in Brussels tries to exert control over non EU countries will be swept away.

    At some point Remoaners will have to make the crossover from attempting to stop Brexit (which would be undemocratic) to campaigning to re-enter one day (which would not).

    The first step on the campaign to re-enter would be to capture the main opposition party for re-entry. It will never be of any use to those who wish to re-enter the EU so long as it is led by a Leaver who voted against EVERY EU treaty for 30 years, and who facilitated Leave by failing to campaign for Remain.

    So if I'm getting this straight, your ideal situation would be for Labour not to have had Jezza as leader and, say, Cooper or Burnham there instead, and then the UK to have voted to stay in the EU?

    Is that right?
    My ideal situation is for the People to vote in a democratic referendum and for everyone to accept the result -as I would have done if Remain has won.

    I dont know about Cooper, but I think if Burnham had been Labour leader -or Chuka Umunna in 2016 and as Leader of the Opposition he had campaigned vigorously for Remain, my side would have lost. There would have been no Brexit. And I would have accepted the result.

    On referendum night leavers of all political persuasions toasted Jeremy Corbyn. He had proved a useful idiot to the Leave cause.
    I'm happy to believe that you would have accepted a Remain result Steve but neither Farage and his Kippers nor the Tory europhobes would have accepted it; they would have gone campaiging.

    Regarding the actual result, as a devout Remainer I accept it and recognise we sadly have to leave... but there's no reason why we cannot do that with the softest of soft Brexits. We didn't vote to leave the single market or the customs union. Norway are not in the EU but in the single market - a Norwegian solution would have been very sensible but the tory europhobes have pushed the government into a corner that satisfies only the extremists imo.
    Hm, let me just grab that clip of both side saying a vote to leave would be to leave the single market.
    How about this one:
    http://www.open-britain.co.uk/boris_johnson_id_vote_to_stay_in_the_single_market
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464

    We speak a lot of Remain and Leave voters but I wonder if we should have a third category for those in between...

    Those can be Reliefers. Looking for relief from it all?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,491
    welshowl said:

    We speak a lot of Remain and Leave voters but I wonder if we should have a third category for those in between...

    Those can be Reliefers. Looking for relief from it all?
    Perhaps the second referendum question should be "Are you sick of hearing about Brexit?" Vote Remain for "yes, make it stop", and Leave for "no, gimme more".
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    stevef said:

    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    I think May will stay at least until April 2019 and Brexit terms are concluded and any transition agreed.

    I think Boris is then more likely than JRM to succeed her as Tory leader and PM but JRM has a good chance of being the next Tory leader of the opposition if Boris loses the next general election and Corbyn becomes PM

    I think May will be leading the Conservatives into the 2027 general election.
    Certainly possible. Mrs Thatcher was very unpopular about two years into her premiership when the Brixton riots were taking place and the SDP had just been launched.
    But Mrs Thatcher had never lost a majority.

    At every general election she fought as leader the Tories were always better off in seats than when she became leader.
    Merkel of course failed to get a majority in 2005 when she was expected to win comfortably and had to form a coalition with the SPD, yet in 2009 she won enough to govern alone with her FDP allies and never looked back
    And?

    The debates are here to stay, Mrs May is crap at debates, and no leader will be able to chicken out of them again.

    That alone will require a new leader before the next general election.

    Mrs May doesn’t like campaigning and engaging with hoi pollio, which is kinda of important in a general election campaign
    Sure but May to stay on and then lose the next election is implied at around 50-1 if you compare the Mogg next PM and next Tory leader prices. How would you price that ?

    I can’t reconcile it.

    I tried to work out the scenarios where Corbyn becomes PM without an election and struggled.
    Maybe arbitrage it instead.
    It is impossible for Corbyn to become PM without an election unless the Tories deliberately (as in 1905) decided to resign and step down as the government. It isnt going to happen.
    What if JRM became leader and a group of MPs resigned the Tory whip en masse and backed Corbyn as PM?
    More chance of Elvis riding Shergar into the HoC chamber.
  • CD13 said:

    Mr Meeks,

    Define fascist? ... "A fascist is a follower of a political philosophy characterized by authoritarian views and a strong central government — and no tolerance for opposing opinions." That would include Stalin and Mao.

    Mr Meeks' definition ... Anyone who votes Leave. At least that has clarity.


    Well that is simply not what I said. I even gave a clear rationale for my use of the word fascist, complete with illustrative quotation.

    Evidently voting Leave destroys reading comprehension skills.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,083
    McDonnell is red,
    the Tories are blue,
    Henry Bolton wed
    Russian wife two.
  • Mr. Owl, not a bad term.
  • stevefstevef Posts: 1,044
    If we stayed in the Single Market as Remoaners wish (the so called "Soft Brexit), then nothing would change as a result of the UK leaving. We would still be under EU control regarding our borders and laws. It would be as if Remain had won after all.

    The whole premise of the referendum was whether we should "take back control". Both sides acknowledged that leaving the EU in more than just name would require us to leave the Single Market. My copy of the Remain campaign booklet stated it.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,083
    TGOHF said:

    stevef said:

    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    I think May will stay at least until April 2019 and Brexit terms are concluded and any transition agreed.

    I think Boris is then more likely than JRM to succeed her as Tory leader and PM but JRM has a good chance of being the next Tory leader of the opposition if Boris loses the next general election and Corbyn becomes PM

    I think May will be leading the Conservatives into the 2027 general election.
    Certainly possible. Mrs Thatcher was very unpopular about two years into her premiership when the Brixton riots were taking place and the SDP had just been launched.
    But Mrs Thatcher had never lost a majority.

    At every general election she fought as leader the Tories were always better off in seats than when she became leader.
    Merkel of course failed to get a majority in 2005 when she was expected to win comfortably and had to form a coalition with the SPD, yet in 2009 she won enough to govern alone with her FDP allies and never looked back
    And?

    The debates are here to stay, Mrs May is crap at debates, and no leader will be able to chicken out of them again.

    That alone will require a new leader before the next general election.

    Mrs May doesn’t like campaigning and engaging with hoi pollio, which is kinda of important in a general election campaign
    Sure but May to stay on and then lose the next election is implied at around 50-1 if you compare the Mogg next PM and next Tory leader prices. How would you price that ?

    I can’t reconcile it.

    I tried to work out the scenarios where Corbyn becomes PM without an election and struggled.
    Maybe arbitrage it instead.
    It is impossible for Corbyn to become PM without an election unless the Tories deliberately (as in 1905) decided to resign and step down as the government. It isnt going to happen.
    What if JRM became leader and a group of MPs resigned the Tory whip en masse and backed Corbyn as PM?
    More chance of Elvis riding Shergar into the HoC chamber.
    More to the point, JRM leader and next PM have already both paid out at that point.
  • stevefstevef Posts: 1,044
    TGOHF said:

    stevef said:

    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    I think May will stay at least until April 2019 and Brexit terms are concluded and any transition agreed.

    I think Boris is then more likely than JRM to succeed her as Tory leader and PM but JRM has a good chance of being the next Tory leader of the opposition if Boris loses the next general election and Corbyn becomes PM

    I think May will be leading the Conservatives into the 2027 general election.
    Certainly possible. Mrs Thatcher was very unpopular about two years into her premiership when the Brixton riots were taking place and the SDP had just been launched.
    But Mrs Thatcher had never lost a majority.

    At every general election she fought as leader the Tories were always better off in seats than when she became leader.
    Merkel of course failed to get a majority in 2005 when she was expected to win comfortably and had to form a coalition with the SPD, yet in 2009 she won enough to govern alone with her FDP allies and never looked back
    And?

    The debates are here to stay, Mrs May is crap at debates, and no leader will be able to chicken out of them again.

    That alone will require a new leader before the next general election.

    Mrs May doesn’t like campaigning and engaging with hoi pollio, which is kinda of important in a general election campaign
    Sure but May to stay on and then lose the next election is implied at around 50-1 if you compare the Mogg next PM and next Tory leader prices. How would you price that ?

    I can’t reconcile it.

    I tried to work out the scenarios where Corbyn becomes PM without an election and struggled.
    Maybe arbitrage it instead.
    It is impossible for Corbyn to become PM without an election unless the Tories deliberately (as in 1905) decided to resign and step down as the government. It isnt going to happen.
    What if JRM became leader and a group of MPs resigned the Tory whip en masse and backed Corbyn as PM?
    More chance of Elvis riding Shergar into the HoC chamber.
    What if Marilyn Monroe was discovered living in sin with Elvis Presley on the Moon?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,614
    stevef said:

    If we stayed in the Single Market as Remoaners wish (the so called "Soft Brexit), then nothing would change as a result of the UK leaving. We would still be under EU control regarding our borders and laws. It would be as if Remain had won after all.

    The whole premise of the referendum was whether we should "take back control". Both sides acknowledged that leaving the EU in more than just name would require us to leave the Single Market. My copy of the Remain campaign booklet stated it.

    Is Norway in the EU?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,033
    Here's my problem with betting on JRM.

    There are two broad scenarios for the period between now and summer 2020.

    1. The economy is strong, and therefore Brexit is perceived to be a success. In this scenario, Mrs May is likely to prove tenacious. This doesn't mean JRM isn't the next Conservative leader, but it does mean that you'll be waiting a while for your money.

    2. The economy is weak, and therefore Brexit is perceived to be a failure. In which case, I can't see the next Conservative leader being a Hard Brexiteer.

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,383

    dixiedean said:

    More plausible May caves in to BINO. 20 or so irreconcilables resign the whip and no confidence her. Under the FTPA, Corbyn becomes PM and has 2 weeks to fail to form a govt. before an election is called AIUI. Unlikely? Maybe. But not entirely impossible.

    He doesn't become PM unless he can put together a majority first, or appear to be in a position to do so.
    Surely he would be entitled to at least try under such an admittedly unlikely scenario?
  • stevefstevef Posts: 1,044

    stevef said:

    If we stayed in the Single Market as Remoaners wish (the so called "Soft Brexit), then nothing would change as a result of the UK leaving. We would still be under EU control regarding our borders and laws. It would be as if Remain had won after all.

    The whole premise of the referendum was whether we should "take back control". Both sides acknowledged that leaving the EU in more than just name would require us to leave the Single Market. My copy of the Remain campaign booklet stated it.

    Is Norway in the EU?
    Norwegians did not vote to leave the EU. We did,

    Norway is under the control of the EU. Norway has to accept EU laws and Freedom of Movement.

    How would that satisfy those who voted Leave?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    rcs1000 said:

    Here's my problem with betting on JRM.

    There are two broad scenarios for the period between now and summer 2020.

    1. The economy is strong, and therefore Brexit is perceived to be a success. In this scenario, Mrs May is likely to prove tenacious. This doesn't mean JRM isn't the next Conservative leader, but it does mean that you'll be waiting a while for your money.

    2. The economy is weak, and therefore Brexit is perceived to be a failure. In which case, I can't see the next Conservative leader being a Hard Brexiteer.

    His only chance is if May backtracks on Brexit and tries to serve up roasted Brino.

  • stevefstevef Posts: 1,044
    TGOHF said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Here's my problem with betting on JRM.

    There are two broad scenarios for the period between now and summer 2020.

    1. The economy is strong, and therefore Brexit is perceived to be a success. In this scenario, Mrs May is likely to prove tenacious. This doesn't mean JRM isn't the next Conservative leader, but it does mean that you'll be waiting a while for your money.

    2. The economy is weak, and therefore Brexit is perceived to be a failure. In which case, I can't see the next Conservative leader being a Hard Brexiteer.

    His only chance is if May backtracks on Brexit and tries to serve up roasted Brino.

    Bet on Mogg and you will be poor.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,614
    edited February 2018
    stevef said:

    stevef said:

    If we stayed in the Single Market as Remoaners wish (the so called "Soft Brexit), then nothing would change as a result of the UK leaving. We would still be under EU control regarding our borders and laws. It would be as if Remain had won after all.

    The whole premise of the referendum was whether we should "take back control". Both sides acknowledged that leaving the EU in more than just name would require us to leave the Single Market. My copy of the Remain campaign booklet stated it.

    Is Norway in the EU?
    Norwegians did not vote to leave the EU. We did,

    Norway is under the control of the EU. Norway has to accept EU laws and Freedom of Movement.

    How would that satisfy those who voted Leave?
    Er... well, we'd no longer be in the EU - we'd have left, in fact.

    EDIT: I accept it wouldn't satisfy the true-believers - the zealots. But wnat proportion of the 52% do you think they constitute?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,908

    stevef said:

    stevef said:

    If we stayed in the Single Market as Remoaners wish (the so called "Soft Brexit), then nothing would change as a result of the UK leaving. We would still be under EU control regarding our borders and laws. It would be as if Remain had won after all.

    The whole premise of the referendum was whether we should "take back control". Both sides acknowledged that leaving the EU in more than just name would require us to leave the Single Market. My copy of the Remain campaign booklet stated it.

    Is Norway in the EU?
    Norwegians did not vote to leave the EU. We did,

    Norway is under the control of the EU. Norway has to accept EU laws and Freedom of Movement.

    How would that satisfy those who voted Leave?
    Er... well, we'd no longer be in the EU - we'd have left, in fact.

    EDIT: I accept it wouldn't satisfy the true-believers - the zealots. But wnat proportion of the 52% do you think they constitute?
    Probably wouldn't satisfy the many people who voted to end freedom of movement.
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    IanB2 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Nails it. From a friend of Brexit and, in the past, of Boris, too.
    That article is from Alex Massie not Nelson, so less significant as Massie is a long term anti-Brexiter.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,649
    edited February 2018

    Good afternoon, fellow Moggites.

    I still can't see it. When was the last time a backbencher with no ministerial experience became PM?

    Two out of our last four PMs had no ministerial experience before they became PM.

    Between them they are the only Lab and Con leaders to have won a majority for their parties in a total of 70 years.
    No PM has come straight from the backbenches, they all have either been in the Cabinet or Shadow Cabinet or been Leader of the Opposition
  • I know it's before the watershed, so if you have children don't let them see this, but I thought it was worth seeing:
    https://twitter.com/theWPTformula/status/963803435287089154
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,840
    RobD said:

    stevef said:

    stevef said:

    If we stayed in the Single Market as Remoaners wish (the so called "Soft Brexit), then nothing would change as a result of the UK leaving. We would still be under EU control regarding our borders and laws. It would be as if Remain had won after all.

    The whole premise of the referendum was whether we should "take back control". Both sides acknowledged that leaving the EU in more than just name would require us to leave the Single Market. My copy of the Remain campaign booklet stated it.

    Is Norway in the EU?
    Norwegians did not vote to leave the EU. We did,

    Norway is under the control of the EU. Norway has to accept EU laws and Freedom of Movement.

    How would that satisfy those who voted Leave?
    Er... well, we'd no longer be in the EU - we'd have left, in fact.

    EDIT: I accept it wouldn't satisfy the true-believers - the zealots. But wnat proportion of the 52% do you think they constitute?
    Probably wouldn't satisfy the many people who voted to end freedom of movement.
    Oh, was that on the other side of the ballot paper?

    Dammit - I never turned it over. What other questions were there?
  • stevefstevef Posts: 1,044

    stevef said:

    stevef said:

    If we stayed in the Single Market as Remoaners wish (the so called "Soft Brexit), then nothing would change as a result of the UK leaving. We would still be under EU control regarding our borders and laws. It would be as if Remain had won after all.

    The whole premise of the referendum was whether we should "take back control". Both sides acknowledged that leaving the EU in more than just name would require us to leave the Single Market. My copy of the Remain campaign booklet stated it.

    Is Norway in the EU?
    Norwegians did not vote to leave the EU. We did,

    Norway is under the control of the EU. Norway has to accept EU laws and Freedom of Movement.

    How would that satisfy those who voted Leave?
    Er... well, we'd no longer be in the EU - we'd have left, in fact.

    EDIT: I accept it wouldn't satisfy the true-believers - the zealots. But wnat proportion of the 52% do you think they constitute?
    We would have left in name only but still be under the control of the EU exactly the same as before.

    How would anyone -zealot or not -who voted leave be satisfied by things staying as they were before?

    What proportion of remainers are zealots who want a federal Europe and want the EU to control our borders and laws.

    The great mass of the people are moderates, but they do want the UK to be able to control its own laws and borders and when they vote for something they dont expect nothing to change. if they voted to "take back control" they dont expect the EU to still be in control.

    If I check out of a hotel room I dont expect to still be billed for it.
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    I think leavers are worrying slightly unnecessarily about Brexit initially leaving us a little more aligned with the EU than they would have preferred.


    The ratchet will only turn one way and with each passing GE there will be a move away rather than towards, especially if economically we are outperforming the EU.

    It may take the annihilation of the first party to offer re-joining in a GE manifesto to prove the point.
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,564
    edited February 2018

    RobD said:

    stevef said:

    TOPPING said:

    stevef said:



    Is that right?

    My ideal situation is for the People to vote in a democratic referendum and for everyone to accept the result -as I would have done if Remain has won.

    I dont know about Cooper, but I think if Burnham had been Labour leader -or Chuka Umunna in 2016 and as Leader of the Opposition he had campaigned vigorously for Remain, my side would have lost. There would have been no Brexit. And I would have accepted the result.

    On referendum night leavers of all political persuasions toasted Jeremy Corbyn. He had proved a useful idiot to the Leave cause.
    I'm happy to believe that you would have accepted a Remain result Steve but neither Farage and his Kippers nor the Tory europhobes would have accepted it; they would have gone campaiging.

    Regarding the actual result, as a devout Remainer I accept it and recognise we sadly have to leave... but there's no reason why we cannot do that with the softest of soft Brexits. We didn't vote to leave the single market or the customs union. Norway are not in the EU but in the single market - a Norwegian solution would have been very sensible but the tory europhobes have pushed the government into a corner that satisfies only the extremists imo.
    Hm, let me just grab that clip of both side saying a vote to leave would be to leave the single market.
    How about this one:
    http://www.open-britain.co.uk/boris_johnson_id_vote_to_stay_in_the_single_market
    Isn't this the point though? You can find a clip of a leaver saying anything you like, frequently contradictory. (sometimes even with what the same person said to a different audience.)
    Cameron needs to take all the blame for allowing us to get the referendum with so little pinned down about what leave would mean - if he'd been savvier he'd have got them to write a white paper and have the arguments before the vote.

    So that's why I've no time for people talking about the Will Of THe PeoPle, or that Leave means Leave. Leave meant various contradictory things before the vote, the cabinet still are too split to come up with any vision now. When you only have 52% to start with, the idea that anyone can claim they know what the vote really meant or was really about is for the birds - and normally indicates someone who can't argue for their favoured outcome on its merits.

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    stevef said:

    TGOHF said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Here's my problem with betting on JRM.

    There are two broad scenarios for the period between now and summer 2020.

    1. The economy is strong, and therefore Brexit is perceived to be a success. In this scenario, Mrs May is likely to prove tenacious. This doesn't mean JRM isn't the next Conservative leader, but it does mean that you'll be waiting a while for your money.

    2. The economy is weak, and therefore Brexit is perceived to be a failure. In which case, I can't see the next Conservative leader being a Hard Brexiteer.

    His only chance is if May backtracks on Brexit and tries to serve up roasted Brino.

    Bet on Mogg and you will be poor.
    Yeah - in the end he's a bit Popish.
  • RobD said:

    stevef said:

    stevef said:

    If we stayed in the Single Market as Remoaners wish (the so called "Soft Brexit), then nothing would change as a result of the UK leaving. We would still be under EU control regarding our borders and laws. It would be as if Remain had won after all.

    The whole premise of the referendum was whether we should "take back control". Both sides acknowledged that leaving the EU in more than just name would require us to leave the Single Market. My copy of the Remain campaign booklet stated it.

    Is Norway in the EU?
    Norwegians did not vote to leave the EU. We did,

    Norway is under the control of the EU. Norway has to accept EU laws and Freedom of Movement.

    How would that satisfy those who voted Leave?
    Er... well, we'd no longer be in the EU - we'd have left, in fact.

    EDIT: I accept it wouldn't satisfy the true-believers - the zealots. But wnat proportion of the 52% do you think they constitute?
    Probably wouldn't satisfy the many people who voted to LEAVE THE EU.
    Tidied
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    edited February 2018
    TGOHF said:

    stevef said:

    TGOHF said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Here's my problem with betting on JRM.

    There are two broad scenarios for the period between now and summer 2020.

    1. The economy is strong, and therefore Brexit is perceived to be a success. In this scenario, Mrs May is likely to prove tenacious. This doesn't mean JRM isn't the next Conservative leader, but it does mean that you'll be waiting a while for your money.

    2. The economy is weak, and therefore Brexit is perceived to be a failure. In which case, I can't see the next Conservative leader being a Hard Brexiteer.

    His only chance is if May backtracks on Brexit and tries to serve up roasted Brino.

    Bet on Mogg and you will be poor.
    Yeah - in the end he's a bit Popish.
    Exchanging Brussels for Rome might not be smart.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,908
    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    stevef said:

    stevef said:

    If we stayed in the Single Market as Remoaners wish (the so called "Soft Brexit), then nothing would change as a result of the UK leaving. We would still be under EU control regarding our borders and laws. It would be as if Remain had won after all.

    The whole premise of the referendum was whether we should "take back control". Both sides acknowledged that leaving the EU in more than just name would require us to leave the Single Market. My copy of the Remain campaign booklet stated it.

    Is Norway in the EU?
    Norwegians did not vote to leave the EU. We did,

    Norway is under the control of the EU. Norway has to accept EU laws and Freedom of Movement.

    How would that satisfy those who voted Leave?
    Er... well, we'd no longer be in the EU - we'd have left, in fact.

    EDIT: I accept it wouldn't satisfy the true-believers - the zealots. But wnat proportion of the 52% do you think they constitute?
    Probably wouldn't satisfy the many people who voted to end freedom of movement.
    Oh, was that on the other side of the ballot paper?

    Dammit - I never turned it over. What other questions were there?
    People don't make decisions in a vacuum. There have been many polls suggesting this was the main reason for a fair chunk of voters.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,005
    Greenies are Green
    Nats are Tartan
    The quality of PB's Brexit debate
    Has become somewhat spartan
  • stevefstevef Posts: 1,044
    tpfkar said:

    RobD said:

    stevef said:

    TOPPING said:

    stevef said:



    Is that right?

    My ideal situation is for the People to vote in a democratic referendum and for everyone to accept the result -as I would have done if Remain has won.

    I dont know about Cooper, but I think if Burnham had been Labour leader -or Chuka Umunna in 2016 and as Leader of the Opposition he had campaigned vigorously for Remain, my side would have lost. There would have been no Brexit. And I would have accepted the result.

    On referendum night leavers of all political persuasions toasted Jeremy Corbyn. He had proved a useful idiot to the Leave cause.
    I'm happy to believe that you would have accepted a Remain result Steve but neither Farage and his Kippers nor the Tory europhobes would have accepted it; they would have gone campaiging.

    Regarding the actual result, as a devout Remainer I accept it and recognise we sadly have to leave... but there's no reason why we cannot do that with the softest of soft Brexits. We didn't vote to leave the single market or the customs union. Norway are not in the EU but in the single market - a Norwegian solution would have been very sensible but the tory europhobes have pushed the government into a corner that satisfies only the extremists imo.
    Hm, let me just grab that clip of both side saying a vote to leave would be to leave the single market.
    How about this one:
    http://www.open-britain.co.uk/boris_johnson_id_vote_to_stay_in_the_single_market
    Isn't this the point though? You can find a clip of a leaver saying anything you like, frequently contradictory. (sometimes even with what the same person said to a different audience.)
    Cameron needs to take all the blame for allowing us to get the referendum with so little pinned down about what leave would mean - if he'd been savvier he'd have got them to write a white paper and have the arguments before the vote.

    So that's why I've no time for people talking about the Will Of THe PeoPle, or that Leave means Leave. Leave meant various contradictory things before the vote, the cabinet still are too split to come up with any vision now. When you only have 52% to start with, the idea that anyone can claim they know what the vote really meant or was really about is for the birds - and normally indicates someone who can't argue for their favoured outcome on its merits.

    Leave was clearly presented as taking back control of our borders and laws. People did not vote for change so that things could stay the same, people did not vote to end EU control only for it to continue.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,252
    TGOHF said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Here's my problem with betting on JRM.

    There are two broad scenarios for the period between now and summer 2020.

    1. The economy is strong, and therefore Brexit is perceived to be a success. In this scenario, Mrs May is likely to prove tenacious. This doesn't mean JRM isn't the next Conservative leader, but it does mean that you'll be waiting a while for your money.

    2. The economy is weak, and therefore Brexit is perceived to be a failure. In which case, I can't see the next Conservative leader being a Hard Brexiteer.

    His only chance is if May backtracks on Brexit and tries to serve up roasted Brino.

    I'd add - as well as May serving up roasted Brino, it needs other prominent leavers like Johnson and Gove to go along with it.

    Otherwise they would run and justifiably be top of the ticket given their cabinet experience and in the case of Johnson, greater name recognition and winning track record.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,295
    stevef said:

    stevef said:

    stevef said:

    If we stayed in the Single Market as Remoaners wish (the so called "Soft Brexit), then nothing would change as a result of the UK leaving. We would still be under EU control regarding our borders and laws. It would be as if Remain had won after all.

    The whole premise of the referendum was whether we should "take back control". Both sides acknowledged that leaving the EU in more than just name would require us to leave the Single Market. My copy of the Remain campaign booklet stated it.

    Is Norway in the EU?
    Norwegians did not vote to leave the EU. We did,

    Norway is under the control of the EU. Norway has to accept EU laws and Freedom of Movement.

    How would that satisfy those who voted Leave?
    Er... well, we'd no longer be in the EU - we'd have left, in fact.

    EDIT: I accept it wouldn't satisfy the true-believers - the zealots. But wnat proportion of the 52% do you think they constitute?
    We would have left in name only but still be under the control of the EU exactly the same as before.

    How would anyone -zealot or not -who voted leave be satisfied by things staying as they were before?

    What proportion of remainers are zealots who want a federal Europe and want the EU to control our borders and laws.

    The great mass of the people are moderates, but they do want the UK to be able to control its own laws and borders and when they vote for something they dont expect nothing to change. if they voted to "take back control" they dont expect the EU to still be in control.

    If I check out of a hotel room I dont expect to still be billed for it.
    Except that we need access to the hotel room to stop the economy crashing.
  • stevefstevef Posts: 1,044

    stevef said:

    stevef said:

    stevef said:

    If we stayed in the Single Market as Remoaners wish (the so called "Soft Brexit), then nothing would change as a result of the UK leaving. We would still be under EU control regarding our borders and laws. It would be as if Remain had won after all.

    The whole premise of the referendum was whether we should "take back control". Both sides acknowledged that leaving the EU in more than just name would require us to leave the Single Market. My copy of the Remain campaign booklet stated it.

    Is Norway in the EU?
    Norwegians did not vote to leave the EU. We did,

    Norway is under the control of the EU. Norway has to accept EU laws and Freedom of Movement.

    How would that satisfy those who voted Leave?
    Er... well, we'd no longer be in the EU - we'd have left, in fact.

    EDIT: I accept it wouldn't satisfy the true-believers - the zealots. But wnat proportion of the 52% do you think they constitute?
    We would have left in name only but still be under the control of the EU exactly the same as before.

    How would anyone -zealot or not -who voted leave be satisfied by things staying as they were before?

    What proportion of remainers are zealots who want a federal Europe and want the EU to control our borders and laws.

    The great mass of the people are moderates, but they do want the UK to be able to control its own laws and borders and when they vote for something they dont expect nothing to change. if they voted to "take back control" they dont expect the EU to still be in control.

    If I check out of a hotel room I dont expect to still be billed for it.
    Except that we need access to the hotel room to stop the economy crashing.
    Its Jeremy Corbyn, who would be the first Leaver to be PM in our history who would crash the economy.

    But there is no hard evidence other than pure speculation that Brexit will crash the economy.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,503
    New elections then? And in the meantime, the British govt is saving a billion that they promised to NI in order to get the Ulstermen on side last June.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,649

    Roses are red

    Violets are blue

    I'm for the many

    Not just the few

    Or as SteveF would put it

    Corbyns a Red

    I'm not a Blue

    Labour is dead

    877 times I've told you
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,840
    stevef said:

    stevef said:

    stevef said:

    If we stayed in the Single Market as Remoaners wish (the so called "Soft Brexit), then nothing would change as a result of the UK leaving. We would still be under EU control regarding our borders and laws. It would be as if Remain had won after all.

    The whole premise of the referendum was whether we should "take back control". Both sides acknowledged that leaving the EU in more than just name would require us to leave the Single Market. My copy of the Remain campaign booklet stated it.

    Is Norway in the EU?
    Norwegians did not vote to leave the EU. We did,

    Norway is under the control of the EU. Norway has to accept EU laws and Freedom of Movement.

    How would that satisfy those who voted Leave?
    Er... well, we'd no longer be in the EU - we'd have left, in fact.

    EDIT: I accept it wouldn't satisfy the true-believers - the zealots. But wnat proportion of the 52% do you think they constitute?
    We would have left in name only but still be under the control of the EU exactly the same as before.

    How would anyone -zealot or not -who voted leave be satisfied by things staying as they were before?

    What proportion of remainers are zealots who want a federal Europe and want the EU to control our borders and laws.

    The great mass of the people are moderates, but they do want the UK to be able to control its own laws and borders and when they vote for something they dont expect nothing to change. if they voted to "take back control" they dont expect the EU to still be in control.

    If I check out of a hotel room I dont expect to still be billed for it.
    While we're at it let's get out of the WTO as well. Controlling bastards.
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,564
    stevef said:

    tpfkar said:

    RobD said:

    stevef said:

    TOPPING said:

    stevef said:



    Is that right?

    I dont know about Cooper, but I think if Burnham had been Labour leader -or Chuka Umunna in 2016 and as Leader of the Opposition he had campaigned vigorously for Remain, my side would have lost. There would have been no Brexit. And I would have accepted the result.

    On referendum night leavers of all political persuasions toasted Jeremy Corbyn. He had proved a useful idiot to the Leave cause.
    I'm happy to believe that you would have accepted a Remain result Steve but neither Farage and his Kippers nor the Tory europhobes would have accepted it; they would have gone campaiging.

    Regarding the actual result, as a devout Remainer I accept it and recognise we sadly have to leave... but there's no reason why we cannot do that with the softest of soft Brexits. We didn't vote to leave the single market or the customs union. Norway are not in the EU but in the single market - a Norwegian solution would have been very sensible but the tory europhobes have pushed the government into a corner that satisfies only the extremists imo.
    Hm, let me just grab that clip of both side saying a vote to leave would be to leave the single market.
    How about this one:
    http://www.open-britain.co.uk/boris_johnson_id_vote_to_stay_in_the_single_market
    Isn't this the point though? You can find a clip of a leaver saying anything you like, frequently contradictory. (sometimes even with what the same person said to a different audience.)
    Cameron needs to take all the blame for allowing us to get the referendum with so little pinned down about what leave would mean - if he'd been savvier he'd have got them to write a white paper and have the arguments before the vote.

    So that's why I've no time for people talking about the Will Of THe PeoPle, or that Leave means Leave. Leave meant various contradictory things before the vote, the cabinet still are too split to come up with any vision now. When you only have 52% to start with, the idea that anyone can claim they know what the vote really meant or was really about is for the birds - and normally indicates someone who can't argue for their favoured outcome on its merits.

    Leave was clearly presented as taking back control of our borders and laws. People did not vote for change so that things could stay the same, people did not vote to end EU control only for it to continue.
    I can see you are a passionate advocate - but I'm afraid this is exactly what I'm referring to when I have a healthy distrust of anyone who tries to lecture on what the vote meant.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,295
    stevef said:

    stevef said:

    stevef said:

    stevef said:

    If we stayed in the Single Market as Remoaners wish (the so called "Soft Brexit), then nothing would change as a result of the UK leaving. We would still be under EU control regarding our borders and laws. It would be as if Remain had won after all.

    The whole premise of the referendum was whether we should "take back control". Both sides acknowledged that leaving the EU in more than just name would require us to leave the Single Market. My copy of the Remain campaign booklet stated it.

    Is Norway in the EU?
    Norwegians did not vote to leave the EU. We did,

    Norway is under the control of the EU. Norway has to accept EU laws and Freedom of Movement.

    How would that satisfy those who voted Leave?
    Er... well, we'd no longer be in the EU - we'd have left, in fact.

    EDIT: I accept it wouldn't satisfy the true-believers - the zealots. But wnat proportion of the 52% do you think they constitute?
    We would have left in name only but still be under the control of the EU exactly the same as before.

    How would anyone -zealot or not -who voted leave be satisfied by things staying as they were before?

    What proportion of remainers are zealots who want a federal Europe and want the EU to control our borders and laws.

    The great mass of the people are moderates, but they do want the UK to be able to control its own laws and borders and when they vote for something they dont expect nothing to change. if they voted to "take back control" they dont expect the EU to still be in control.

    If I check out of a hotel room I dont expect to still be billed for it.
    Except that we need access to the hotel room to stop the economy crashing.
    Its Jeremy Corbyn, who would be the first Leaver to be PM in our history who would crash the economy.

    But there is no hard evidence other than pure speculation that Brexit will crash the economy.
    For the hard-as-fuck Brexit you keep banging on about, there is more than speculation; there is basic economics.

    You want to raise trade barriers with our largest and most integrated market.

    It’s the economics of Kim Jong-un.
  • HYUFD said:

    Good afternoon, fellow Moggites.

    I still can't see it. When was the last time a backbencher with no ministerial experience became PM?

    Two out of our last four PMs had no ministerial experience before they became PM.

    Between them they are the only Lab and Con leaders to have won a majority for their parties in a total of 70 years.
    No PM has come straight from the backbenches, they all have either been in the Cabinet or Shadow Cabinet or been Leader of the Opposition
    Arthur Wellesley says hello.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,476
    Corbyn is red
    May is still blue
    But Brexit is coming
    Regardless of hue.....
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,491
    stevef said:

    stevef said:

    stevef said:

    stevef said:

    If we stayed in the Single Market as Remoaners wish (the so called "Soft Brexit), then nothing would change as a result of the UK leaving. We would still be under EU control regarding our borders and laws. It would be as if Remain had won after all.

    The whole premise of the referendum was whether we should "take back control". Both sides acknowledged that leaving the EU in more than just name would require us to leave the Single Market. My copy of the Remain campaign booklet stated it.

    Is Norway in the EU?
    Norwegians did not vote to leave the EU. We did,

    Norway is under the control of the EU. Norway has to accept EU laws and Freedom of Movement.

    How would that satisfy those who voted Leave?
    Er... well, we'd no longer be in the EU - we'd have left, in fact.

    EDIT: I accept it wouldn't satisfy the true-believers - the zealots. But wnat proportion of the 52% do you think they constitute?
    We would have left in name only but still be under the control of the EU exactly the same as before.

    How would anyone -zealot or not -who voted leave be satisfied by things staying as they were before?

    What proportion of remainers are zealots who want a federal Europe and want the EU to control our borders and laws.

    The great mass of the people are moderates, but they do want the UK to be able to control its own laws and borders and when they vote for something they dont expect nothing to change. if they voted to "take back control" they dont expect the EU to still be in control.

    If I check out of a hotel room I dont expect to still be billed for it.
    Except that we need access to the hotel room to stop the economy crashing.
    Its Jeremy Corbyn, who would be the first Leaver to be PM in our history who would crash the economy.

    But there is no hard evidence other than pure speculation that Brexit will crash the economy.
    Ok, forget speculation about the effect on the economy. Do you think imposing new customs processes on UK businesses trading with the rest of Europe is a good thing?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,614
    stevef said:

    stevef said:

    stevef said:

    stevef said:

    If we stayed in the Single Market as Remoaners wish (the so called "Soft Brexit), then nothing would change as a result of the UK leaving. We would still be under EU control regarding our borders and laws. It would be as if Remain had won after all.

    The whole premise of the referendum was whether we should "take back control". Both sides acknowledged that leaving the EU in more than just name would require us to leave the Single Market. My copy of the Remain campaign booklet stated it.

    Is Norway in the EU?
    Norwegians did not vote to leave the EU. We did,

    Norway is under the control of the EU. Norway has to accept EU laws and Freedom of Movement.

    How would that satisfy those who voted Leave?
    Er... well, we'd no longer be in the EU - we'd have left, in fact.

    EDIT: I accept it wouldn't satisfy the true-believers - the zealots. But wnat proportion of the 52% do you think they constitute?
    We would have left in name only but still be under the control of the EU exactly the same as before.

    How would anyone -zealot or not -who voted leave be satisfied by things staying as they were before?

    What proportion of remainers are zealots who want a federal Europe and want the EU to control our borders and laws.

    The great mass of the people are moderates, but they do want the UK to be able to control its own laws and borders and when they vote for something they dont expect nothing to change. if they voted to "take back control" they dont expect the EU to still be in control.

    If I check out of a hotel room I dont expect to still be billed for it.
    Except that we need access to the hotel room to stop the economy crashing.
    Its Jeremy Corbyn, who would be the first Leaver to be PM in our history who would crash the economy.

    But there is no hard evidence other than pure speculation that Brexit will crash the economy.
    It's all a bit academic anyway because we're going to end up with BINO... just saying.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    Roses are red
    Roses are blue
    Stop assuming our colour
    Or we will report you

  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    Mr Meeks,

    "I even gave a clear rationale for my use of the word fascist, complete with illustrative quotation."

    I gave you a sort of compliment (clarity) and now you're thrown it back in my face. Some people are never satisfied.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    Roses are red

    Violets are blue

    I'm for the many

    Not just the few

    Or as SteveF would put it

    Corbyns a Red

    I'm not a Blue

    Labour is dead

    877 times I've told you
    Someone down thread said they like the 887.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Brendan O'Neill:

    "Today’s cult of youth terrifies me. You see it in the Corbynista movement, too: the callous celebration of the fact that the Corbyn outlook is more popular among the young than the Tories are, as if that alone proves its moral worth. Time and again we are given the distinct impression that if a political worldview is backed by the young, then it must be good, it must be dynamic, it must be worth pursuing."

    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/02/the-cult-of-youth-undermines-democracy/
  • Heseltine came close to becoming PM from the backbenches.
  • stevefstevef Posts: 1,044
    CD13 said:

    Mr Meeks,

    "I even gave a clear rationale for my use of the word fascist, complete with illustrative quotation."

    I gave you a sort of compliment (clarity) and now you're thrown it back in my face. Some people are never satisfied.

    One rule for remoaners....
  • stevef said:

    stevef said:

    stevef said:

    stevef said:

    If we stayed in the Single Market as Remoaners wish (the so called "Soft Brexit), then nothing would change as a result of the UK leaving. We would still be under EU control regarding our borders and laws. It would be as if Remain had won after all.

    The whole premise of the referendum was whether we should "take back control". Both sides acknowledged that leaving the EU in more than just name would require us to leave the Single Market. My copy of the Remain campaign booklet stated it.

    Is Norway in the EU?
    Norwegians did not vote to leave the EU. We did,

    Norway is under the control of the EU. Norway has to accept EU laws and Freedom of Movement.

    How would that satisfy those who voted Leave?
    Er... well, we'd no longer be in the EU - we'd have left, in fact.

    EDIT: I accept it wouldn't satisfy the true-believers - the zealots. But wnat proportion of the 52% do you think they constitute?
    We would have left in name only but still be under the control of the EU exactly the same as before.

    How would anyone -zealot or not -who voted leave be satisfied by things staying as they were before?

    What proportion of remainers are zealots who want a federal Europe and want the EU to control our borders and laws.

    The great mass of the people are moderates, but they do want the UK to be able to control its own laws and borders and when they vote for something they dont expect nothing to change. if they voted to "take back control" they dont expect the EU to still be in control.

    If I check out of a hotel room I dont expect to still be billed for it.
    Except that we need access to the hotel room to stop the economy crashing.
    Its Jeremy Corbyn, who would be the first Leaver to be PM in our history who would crash the economy.

    But there is no hard evidence other than pure speculation that Brexit will crash the economy.
    Don't the governments own figures say that Brexit will hit the economy?
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,802

    We speak a lot of Remain and Leave voters but I wonder if we should have a third category for those in between...

    Non-binary? It's quite the thing.
  • stevefstevef Posts: 1,044
    Yorkcity said:

    Roses are red

    Violets are blue

    I'm for the many

    Not just the few

    Or as SteveF would put it

    Corbyns a Red

    I'm not a Blue

    Labour is dead

    877 times I've told you
    Someone down thread said they like the 887.
    At least you havent threatened to lynch me yet.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    stevef said:

    stevef said:

    stevef said:

    stevef said:

    If we stayed in the Single Market as Remoaners wish (the so called "Soft Brexit), then nothing would change as a result of the UK leaving. We would still be under EU control regarding our borders and laws. It would be as if Remain had won after all.

    The whole premise of the referendum was whether we should "take back control". Both sides acknowledged that leaving the EU in more than just name would require us to leave the Single Market. My copy of the Remain campaign booklet stated it.

    Is Norway in the EU?
    Norwegians did not vote to leave the EU. We did,

    Norway is under the control of the EU. Norway has to accept EU laws and Freedom of Movement.

    How would that satisfy those who voted Leave?
    Er... well, we'd no longer be in the EU - we'd have left, in fact.

    EDIT: I accept it wouldn't satisfy the true-believers - the zealots. But wnat proportion of the 52% do you think they constitute?
    We would have left in name only but still be under the control of the EU exactly the same as before.

    How would anyone -zealot or not -who voted leave be satisfied by things staying as they were before?

    What proportion of remainers are zealots who want a federal Europe and want the EU to control our borders and laws.

    The great mass of the people are moderates, but they do want the UK to be able to control its own laws and borders and when they vote for something they dont expect nothing to change. if they voted to "take back control" they dont expect the EU to still be in control.

    If I check out of a hotel room I dont expect to still be billed for it.
    Except that we need access to the hotel room to stop the economy crashing.
    Its Jeremy Corbyn, who would be the first Leaver to be PM in our history who would crash the economy.

    But there is no hard evidence other than pure speculation that Brexit will crash the economy.
    It's all a bit academic anyway because we're going to end up with BINO... just saying.
    Agreed with a possible near permanent transition.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,649
    edited February 2018

    HYUFD said:

    Good afternoon, fellow Moggites.

    I still can't see it. When was the last time a backbencher with no ministerial experience became PM?

    Two out of our last four PMs had no ministerial experience before they became PM.

    Between them they are the only Lab and Con leaders to have won a majority for their parties in a total of 70 years.
    No PM has come straight from the backbenches, they all have either been in the Cabinet or Shadow Cabinet or been Leader of the Opposition
    Arthur Wellesley says hello.
    That was pre Reform Act and he was Commander in Chief of the British Army, Master of the Ordinance and Constable of the Tower of London before he became PM so had plenty of executive experience
  • stevefstevef Posts: 1,044

    stevef said:

    stevef said:

    stevef said:

    stevef said:

    If we stayed in the Single Market as Remoaners wish (the so called "Soft Brexit), then nothing would change as a result of the UK leaving. We would still be under EU control regarding our borders and laws. It would be as if Remain had won after all.

    The whole premise of the referendum was whether we should "take back control". Both sides acknowledged that leaving the EU in more than just name would require us to leave the Single Market. My copy of the Remain campaign booklet stated it.

    Is Norway in the EU?
    Norwegians did not vote to leave the EU. We did,

    Norway is under the control of the EU. Norway has to accept EU laws and Freedom of Movement.

    How would that satisfy those who voted Leave?
    Er... well, we'd no longer be in the EU - we'd have left, in fact.

    EDIT: I accept it wouldn't satisfy the true-believers - the zealots. But wnat proportion of the 52% do you think they constitute?
    We would have left in name only but still be under the control of the EU exactly the same as before.

    How would anyone -zealot or not -who voted leave be satisfied by things staying as they were before?

    What proportion of remainers are zealots who want a federal Europe and want the EU to control our borders and laws.

    The great mass of the people are moderates, but they do want the UK to be able to control its own laws and borders and when they vote for something they dont expect nothing to change. if they voted to "take back control" they dont expect the EU to still be in control.

    If I check out of a hotel room I dont expect to still be billed for it.
    Except that we need access to the hotel room to stop the economy crashing.
    Its Jeremy Corbyn, who would be the first Leaver to be PM in our history who would crash the economy.

    But there is no hard evidence other than pure speculation that Brexit will crash the economy.
    Don't the governments own figures say that Brexit will hit the economy?
    I think not but who believes government figures anyway?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,649

    Heseltine came close to becoming PM from the backbenches.

    Heseltine had been Defence Secretary
  • HYUFD said:

    Good afternoon, fellow Moggites.

    I still can't see it. When was the last time a backbencher with no ministerial experience became PM?

    Two out of our last four PMs had no ministerial experience before they became PM.

    Between them they are the only Lab and Con leaders to have won a majority for their parties in a total of 70 years.
    No PM has come straight from the backbenches, they all have either been in the Cabinet or Shadow Cabinet or been Leader of the Opposition
    Arthur Wellesley says hello.
    Arthur was another Etonian, so on-topic for this thread. His views on European alliances were mixed.
  • CD13 said:

    Mr Meeks,

    "I even gave a clear rationale for my use of the word fascist, complete with illustrative quotation."

    I gave you a sort of compliment (clarity) and now you're thrown it back in my face. Some people are never satisfied.

    There was a court case in my area of law where the judge commented on advice given by a lawyer: "it did not even have the merit of ambiguity".
  • A senior figure in Oxfam says she is aware of past claims of sexual abuse involving the charity's staff in Asia.

    Lan Mercado told the BBC the cases took place in the Philippines, Bangladesh and Nepal before she started as regional director two years ago.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,033
    SunnyJim said:

    I think leavers are worrying slightly unnecessarily about Brexit initially leaving us a little more aligned with the EU than they would have preferred.


    The ratchet will only turn one way and with each passing GE there will be a move away rather than towards, especially if economically we are outperforming the EU.

    It may take the annihilation of the first party to offer re-joining in a GE manifesto to prove the point.

    I must admit that I broadly share your opinion. The fact is that - whatever happens - we will have left the political structure of the EU, and therefore overtime our relationship with the EU will change.

    When we entered the EU, we organised a seven year transition period, during which Commonwealth preference was slowly dismantled, in return for a gradual move to the CET. We were not, therefore, complete members of the EU until 1980.

    Now, as a man with extensive business interests in the UK, perhaps I'm biased. But I don't think any of my businesses would be improved by a Unplanned Hard Brexit, especially as there is essentially zero chance that the EU's existing trade deals are likely to be replicated in the near term.
  • stevefstevef Posts: 1,044
    Yorkcity said:

    stevef said:

    stevef said:

    stevef said:

    stevef said:

    If we stayed in the Single Market as Remoaners wish (the so called "Soft Brexit), then nothing would change as a result of the UK leaving. We would still be under EU control regarding our borders and laws. It would be as if Remain had won after all.

    The whole premise of the referendum was whether we should "take back control". Both sides acknowledged that leaving the EU in more than just name would require us to leave the Single Market. My copy of the Remain campaign booklet stated it.

    Is Norway in the EU?
    Norwegians did not vote to leave the EU. We did,

    Norway is under the control of the EU. Norway has to accept EU laws and Freedom of Movement.

    How would that satisfy those who voted Leave?
    Er... well, we'd no longer be in the EU - we'd have left, in fact.

    EDIT: I accept it wouldn't satisfy the true-believers - the zealots. But wnat proportion of the 52% do you think they constitute?
    We would have left in name only but still be under the control of the EU exactly the same as before.

    How would anyone -zealot or not -who voted leave be satisfied by things staying as they were before?

    What proportion of remainers are zealots who want a federal Europe and want the EU to control our borders and laws.

    The great mass of the people are moderates, but they do want the UK to be able to control its own laws and borders and when they vote for something they dont expect nothing to change. if they voted to "take back control" they dont expect the EU to still be in control.

    If I check out of a hotel room I dont expect to still be billed for it.
    Except that we need access to the hotel room to stop the economy crashing.
    Its Jeremy Corbyn, who would be the first Leaver to be PM in our history who would crash the economy.

    But there is no hard evidence other than pure speculation that Brexit will crash the economy.
    It's all a bit academic anyway because we're going to end up with BINO... just saying.
    Agreed with a possible near permanent transition.
    You hope it will be a BRINO.
  • stevefstevef Posts: 1,044

    CD13 said:

    Mr Meeks,

    "I even gave a clear rationale for my use of the word fascist, complete with illustrative quotation."

    I gave you a sort of compliment (clarity) and now you're thrown it back in my face. Some people are never satisfied.

    There was a court case in my area of law where the judge commented on advice given by a lawyer: "it did not even have the merit of ambiguity".
    My clear rationale for calling you a Remoaner is that you dont accept a democratic referendum, and you imagine disingenuously that 17 million people voted to leave the EU so that things could stay exactly the same with the EU continuing to control us via the Single Market and Customs Union. Thats a bit like saying that 40% voted Labour but they didnt vote to end tuition fees.

  • stevefstevef Posts: 1,044
    Yorkcity said:

    stevef said:

    stevef said:

    stevef said:

    stevef said:

    If we stayed in the Single Market as Remoaners wish (the so called "Soft Brexit), then nothing would change as a result of the UK leaving. We would still be under EU control regarding our borders and laws. It would be as if Remain had won after all.

    The whole premise of the referendum was whether we should "take back control". Both sides acknowledged that leaving the EU in more than just name would require us to leave the Single Market. My copy of the Remain campaign booklet stated it.

    Is Norway in the EU?
    Norwegians did not vote to leave the EU. We did,

    Norway is under the control of the EU. Norway has to accept EU laws and Freedom of Movement.

    How would that satisfy those who voted Leave?
    Er... well, we'd no longer be in the EU - we'd have left, in fact.

    EDIT: I accept it wouldn't satisfy the true-believers - the zealots. But wnat proportion of the 52% do you think they constitute?
    We would have left in name only but still be under the control of the EU exactly the same as before.

    How would anyone -zealot or not -who voted leave be satisfied by things staying as they were before?

    What proportion of remainers are zealots who want a federal Europe and want the EU to control our borders and laws.

    The great mass of the people are moderates, but they do want the UK to be able to control its own laws and borders and when they vote for something they dont expect nothing to change. if they voted to "take back control" they dont expect the EU to still be in control.

    If I check out of a hotel room I dont expect to still be billed for it.
    Except that we need access to the hotel room to stop the economy crashing.
    Its Jeremy Corbyn, who would be the first Leaver to be PM in our history who would crash the economy.

    But there is no hard evidence other than pure speculation that Brexit will crash the economy.
    It's all a bit academic anyway because we're going to end up with BINO... just saying.
    Agreed with a possible near permanent transition.
    You hope.
  • The regular reminder to those Leavers who inhale the vapours of the referendum vote and believe that Brexit requires all kinds of specific features to honour the vote:

    https://twitter.com/AndrewCooper__/status/961908728801976320
  • Ms Miller continues her tireless 'reaching out' to Leavers:

    https://twitter.com/guardian/status/963824625787506688
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,491

    Ms Miller continues her tireless 'reaching out' to Leavers:

    https://twitter.com/guardian/status/963824625787506688

    It’s called holding them to account. Quite a normal part of democracy.
  • stevefstevef Posts: 1,044
    Roses are red,
    Violets are blue,
    Disagree with Corbynistas
    And they will threaten to lynch you.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,033
    stevef said:

    I think not but who believes government figures anyway?

    I think, and have always thought, that the biggest threat to Brexit is an economic downturn.

    Now, it doesn't matter what the fundamental cause of that downturn is, it would be blamed on Brexit. And yes, I know the polls show that people are sanguine. But it's easy to be sanguine when you're feeling secure in your job. It's a lot harder when you've lost it, and you're worrying about paying your mortgage.

    A major downturn, with rising unemployment, imperils Brexit far more than a gradual disentanglement from the bloc.
  • stevef said:

    CD13 said:

    Mr Meeks,

    "I even gave a clear rationale for my use of the word fascist, complete with illustrative quotation."

    I gave you a sort of compliment (clarity) and now you're thrown it back in my face. Some people are never satisfied.

    There was a court case in my area of law where the judge commented on advice given by a lawyer: "it did not even have the merit of ambiguity".
    My clear rationale for calling you a Remoaner is that you dont accept a democratic referendum, and you imagine disingenuously that 17 million people voted to leave the EU so that things could stay exactly the same with the EU continuing to control us via the Single Market and Customs Union. Thats a bit like saying that 40% voted Labour but they didnt vote to end tuition fees.

    I refer you to my more recent post, showing that you are fascistically interpreting the referendum vote to require features that you want and which are completely unwarranted by any evidence outside your own imaginings.
  • Mr. Eagles, Wellington was a terrible PM, wasn't he?
  • Boris is Boris and enthuses as many as he upsets but nothing he said today compromises TM who is meeting Merkel on Friday before making a big speech in Munich on Saturday.

    There follows other speeches before TM puts the Government's position on the table in a couple of weeks.

    It is that speech that will define Brexit.

    Boris is colourful but not my choice of next leader.

    Indeed the way things are going and the rise of the sisterhood I am more convinced than ever that the next leader will be female again.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    stevef said:

    Yorkcity said:

    stevef said:

    stevef said:

    stevef said:

    stevef said:

    If we stayed in the Single Market as Remoaners wish (the so called "Soft Brexit), then nothing would change as a result of the UK leaving. We would still be under EU control regarding our borders and laws. It would be as if Remain had won after all.

    The whole premise of the referendum was whether we should "take back control". Both sides acknowledged that leaving the EU in more than just name would require us to leave the Single Market. My copy of the Remain campaign booklet stated it.

    Is Norway in the EU?
    Norwegians did not vote to leave the EU. We did,

    Norway is under the control of the EU. Norway has to accept EU laws and Freedom of Movement.

    How would that satisfy those who voted Leave?
    Er... well, we'd no longer be in the EU - we'd have left, in fact.

    EDIT: I accept it wouldn't satisfy the true-believers - the zealots. But wnat proportion of the 52% do you think they constitute?
    We would have left in name only but still be under the control of the EU exactly the same as before.

    How would anyone -zealot or not -who voted leave be satisfied by things staying as they were before?

    What proportion of remainers are zealots who want a federal Europe and want the EU to control our borders and laws.

    The great mass of the people are moderates, but they do want the UK to be able to control its own laws and borders and when they vote for something they dont expect nothing to change. if they voted to "take back control" they dont expect the EU to still be in control.

    If I check out of a hotel room I dont expect to still be billed for it.
    Except that we need access to the hotel room to stop the economy crashing.
    Its Jeremy Corbyn, who would be the first Leaver to be PM in our history who would crash the economy.

    But there is no hard evidence other than pure speculation that Brexit will crash the economy.
    It's all a bit academic anyway because we're going to end up with BINO... just saying.
    Agreed with a possible near permanent transition.
    You hope it will be a BRINO.
    To be honest Steve , I struggled to make my mind up ,and only voted remain in the end, because of concerns over the economy.Nevertheless IMO opinion May will end up in transition , which will go on a long time.
This discussion has been closed.