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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Poll shows Leave voters would stay mostly solid even if Brexit
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Poll shows Leave voters would stay mostly solid even if Brexit hurts economy, their finances and the NHS
Above in the chart is a new BMG poll which seeks to ascertain the attitudes of Leave voters to negative aspects of Brexit. It was commissioned by Left Foot Forward.
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Edit. And first. My work here is done. Have a good day all.
Wish they’d asked one on immigration.
Take the Shippers book on Brexit. What is the big regret of the Remainers? Not that they should have made the positive case for the EU but that they did not launch personal attacks on Gove and Boris. That's it.
So two years later, why would voters change their mind? Still no-one has made the positive case. Still Remainers rely on the failed project fear messages. Sometimes I think politicians know damn all about politics.
The Sun rises on 31st March 2019?
Provence is still accessible on 31st March 2019?
Better absorbency in knicker gusset material?
Growing up and accepting democracy?
On topic, Brexit will wear Britain out, in an exercise that is almost pointless, but I don't expect to rejoin the EU. Apart from having voted against it, EU membership is far better than the real non-hypothetical Leave alternatives, so rejoining has to be a possibility. But not very likely imo. More likely there will be an ineffectual effort to rejoin while the UK variously attempts to co-opt, undermine and ignore the EU while drifting behind. Sadly, because we can do better than that.
The Leave message was "Lose nothing, gain loads", neither of which is true.
The Remain message was "You will lose things you already take for granted, for little gain"
The DecrepitJohnL lesson in politics seems to be "Lie like a Mutherfucker if you want to win"
Patay was a disaster.
How embarrassing is it to be at war with France for 100 years and still lose.
In mitigation I suppose we were led by Frenchmen too.
In ten years time, the question in London won’t be “should we rejoin the EU?”
The question in Paris and Berlin will be “should we join the UK’s Economic Commonwealth?”
People say they’ll accept the pain of higher taxes to fund the NHS/social care but the moment a party announces concrete plans to do just that the voters get the hump and cost Mrs May David Cameron’s majority?
As for voting intention surveys on potential alternative leaders, they actually tend to be pretty accurate. There was also no polling which had Gordon Brown 'marked down' before he became PM. He led almost every poll as to who voters wanted to succeed Blair as Labour leader and I remember Mori did a voting intention comparison of Labour and the Tories under Brown and Cameron before he became PM giving something like Tories 36% Labour 39%. In 2010 the Tories actually got 36% against Brown, though post crash a lot of that 39% of Labour voters went LD
Oh the sun's coming out. Let's take you for a little walk shall we?
Are you new here?
Good luck to them. They are going to need it.
Happy St Val's Day to all and one piece of wisdom from me:
Remember anyone who posts from midnight to 8am is sad, anyone who posts from 8am to 4pm is bad and anyone who posts from 4pm to midnight is mad and you won't go too far wrong on here.
At this stage, why should there be any buyers' remorse ? Very little has happened - we are slightly less in the EU than we were on 23/6/16 in that we are excluded from some meetings but that's all. It's analogous to the Phoney War period of 1939-40 when it all seemed remote and far away and just a little bit exciting.
The truth is whether we are in the EU or not we will still be subject to the winds, favourable or otherwise, of the global economy. If America sneezes, we will still catch a cold and if the oil price skyrockets or China slows down we will still feel the effects.
There will be another downturn or recession one day - its severity and timing aren't known or clear at this time - and we will need to respond to that but as there was in 2008, that will be orchestrated through the G7 or the G20 and be collaborative and co-operative rather than everyone doing their own thing.
I suspect a lot of people in the middle are just sick of hearing about it.
Intriguing that you group those 4 countries together... classic launch strategy for a Scandi originated medical device is Scandi...Germany...U.K....Us
I really don't give a monkeys about the colour of mine and my wife keeps hers in a rather fetching pink (she says) folder.
Pensioners show notably less fortitude about their decision even in the abstract if the NHS, the service they depend on, might be affected.
Had a REMAIN vote been in effect a bribe via tax cuts or increased spending via a big rebate from the EU and the result would have gone the other way.
You catch more voters with honey than with flypaper,
Your notion of Brexit optimism follows a similar pattern!
Minimum IQ of 90 required too
And no thickies
#manifesto2022
Is it worth saying that not all pensioners voted Leave and not all Leave voters were pensioners?
More than anything it will be good to hear Cabinet members espousing positive visions for a post-Brexit Britain. Jacob Rees-Mogg and Dan Hannan are probably happy to be joined in their optimism by some of their more senior colleagues.
"It's absolutely amazing how much the colour of one's passport seems to matter to people."
It really doesn't. No one I've spoken to in the last few weeks give a monkeys. But I suppose I live in an odd part of the world now, and meet very eccentric people.
However, I thought that when I watched Question Time from Boston a couple of years ago and heard all the pro-Remainers. Perhaps the BBC knows more than I do, I thought. I don't live there anymore and my experiences could be flawed.Perhaps Boston will register a massive Yes to the EU?
Likewise, I've yet to meet anyone who's bothered about trans-gender toilets or who supports pre-pubertal children changing sex. How nice it must be to live somewhere more typical.
We had to win every single battle to stay on top. On the other hand, we only had to lose big one to lose the war.
Theresa May will soon be setting out her desired end state with the EU in more detail. Surely she would strengthen her hand by having the House of Commons vote on a resolution to support or reject her stance before the next set of negotiations begin, rather than waiting until October?
It will be harder for MPs to vote against if they have already voted in favour.
The triple lock is a bad policy which should go because it's a bad policy, not because you disapprove of the voting intentions of most pensioners.
Feel sad about the Baggies. Suspect they will be Premiership “ rejoiners” though!
Wasnt’t there some study a while back showing that you needed to be earning a pretty substantial salary before you became a net contributor, once benefits/tax credits etc were taken into account?
(PS this is not an entirely serious proposal. There is something worrisome about the desire of some to punish those who don’t vote in a way pleasing to them, whether this comes from the left or right or Leavers or Remainers.)
https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/963706367260446720
The only time May had shown any propensity whatever to gamble was when the odds were massively in her favour - and she got severely burned at the subsequent general election. Expect the procrastination to continue.
twitter.com/robesonblogs/status/963008274193936384
https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/963704718282428416
https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/963396831744090113
But, I think it's likely that England (still a wealthy and stable country) would have been constantly feeding France men and resources as it became embroiled in continental affairs, rather than maritime ones.
"...the mainstream Labour Party, which is now built on the continental model, as a mass movement of protest, which will take power only to protest at itself. It will then bequeath the ruins to its successor."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/02/14/tories-will-win-electorate-showing-prepared-put-national-interest/
Technological progress has done much to reduce cultural and national differences. Young people see this more than most of us and wonder what the utility of Brexit is.
She just believes in keeping it under her hat until she's ready.
How many people look back on their youth and think ... "How wise I was then. How I wish I still retained that experience and wisdom,"
Unfortunately as we age, we lose those black and white certainties and gradually we become more nuanced. Why, some even change their voting pattern.
The Left: That’s outrageous! How can you suggest such a Neanderthal attitude?
Devil’s Advocate: It resulted in Brexit...
The Left: He has a point you know......
As I remarked elsewhere, I don't give a whatsit, so long as my passport gets me through the various barriers which it's intended to get me through.
On your last paragraph I've met a couple of people who don't much like the idea of transgender toilets and a couple who've been puzzled over the idea of pre-pubertal children changing sex.
However I've been out of my usual habitats for some four weeks and, when I get back, might check. Although pre-pubertal children changing sex isn't a common subject of discussion among my circle and I might get some strange looks.
https://www.abitleftandabitlost.com/posts/labours-poll-dip-genuine-drop-or-tory-have-cake-and-eat-it-related