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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The hard way. Gaining votes is not enough
In some ways, the 2017 election went as expected for the Conservative party. When the election was called on 18 April, the seven polls that had been published so far that month had averaged 43.3%. When the election was held on 8 June, the Conservatives tallied 42.4%. Any soothsayer would have been happy with that degree of accuracy. This represented a net increase of 5.5% of the vote share on the 2015 result. Clearly the Conservative message gathered new recruits.
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Turns out the ghastly Brexit Britain is one of the least racist places in Europe.
There are only one or two examples of major shifts in polling so soon after an election anyway.
SteveF has called it already though so we all may as well not bother.
It's interesting to see how the nature of marginal seats has changed in recent years.
Places like Dartford, Gravesham, Chatham & Aylesford, Hemel Hempstead, Welwyn Hatfield, Torbay, Somerton & Frome, North Warwickshire, Waveney, The Wrekin, Great Yarmouth, Mid-Dorset, Kingswood and a string of traditional battlegrounds now fall firmly into the Conservative camp.
Conversely, a string of traditional marginals like Enfield North, Ilford North, Bristol West, Wirral South, Tynemouth, Brentford & Isleworth, Luton North and South, Exeter, are now firmly in the Labour camp.
Labour cannot win a general election so long as Corbyn and McDonnell are in charge, as long as Labour seriously use the words "Abbott" and "Home Secretary " in the same sentence, and for so long as Labour behaves in a fascist way with its Cult of Personality, its Corbyn colouring books and Christmas Annuals, and its sinister songs to the Leader.
There may well be a period of stalemate for a while, but I expect the Tory tanks to break the deadlock in 2022, and when that happens there will be much Corbynista grinding of teeth.
As regards the future, I'm very suspicious of any undue certainty about how things might play out. I can see plausible scenarios from a good Con majority (new leader, Brexit seen as not too much of a disaster, a competent Tory campaign, Corbyn's extremism better exposed, Labour's current truce breaking down) to a small working Labour majority (Con disunity getting worse, the wrong new leader or one not properly accepted by the party, Labour continuing to become more professional, and Labour gains in Scotland). Or it may be indecisive again, if the LibDems recover a bit, and the SNP fight back more successfully than they have in recent months.
Obviously Brexit is a crucial issue in all of this, and a major cause of uncertainty. On that subject, I found this blog on Labour's positioning interesting:
http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2018/02/13/why-a-clear-confident-espousal-of-soft-brexit-is-less-risky-than-labour-fears/
How much canvassing did you do?
So whilst some centrist voters who voted for Ed may have gone Tory, I think they mostly held their nose and stayed with Lab because they couldn't vote for Tory Brexit / Theresa who did not come across as centrist as Dave did. Leave voters who voted Lab pre 2016 may come back into the fold once Brexit is done, maybe they won't. I assume the same with Tory Remainers who went Lab. If this really was a realignment election then maybe nobody will move and we're stuck in a world of roughly 40 for each and marginals / other parties will be the deciding factors.
I've said before I think Brexit is more of a symbol for a realignment to those who hold cosmopolitan views versus those who don't, and economics / NHS is nibbling on those edges. Theresa isn't Dave and can't do the hug a hoody / vote blue get green stuff that convinced some more cosmopolitan (but economically conservative) people to vote Blue during the post Brown era, but Corbyn is losing some of the working class Midland / Northern vote who don't agree with changing social norms (which they partly blame New Labour for), modernisation and other things (but probably agree more with him on economics than they do Tories).
There was genuine support and enthusiasm for Corbyn and Corbynism, however marmite that may be to you. I think there is every possibility of him winning the next GE. He is at his practiced best at campaigning. Unspun is the new spin.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leeds-43045322
The problem for Labour was the people in charge of the Party at the election. Voters did not want Corbyn as PM, Abbott as home secretary, and McDonnell as chancellor. They do not want a Labour Party controlled by 80s Militant wit a new name. They do not like the nasty people behind the scenes or on the internet threatening, and the fascist tactics.
So yes, the manifesto was good (but you couldnt fund it without raising taxes for most people) but behind it people recognised something really really nasty. Until Labour addresses that it is doomed to defeat.
https://twitter.com/CoppetainPU/status/963410432504614912
I am not going to be intimidated by Corbynista bullying. Get over yourself.
The Tories as ever will depend on loyalty and habit from their elderly voters. But I don't get the impression that they're fired up and motivated by Tory policies and execution. On the other hand Labour supporters are fired up by the promise of Labour policies and a change for the better.
Canvassing locally I notice that anti-Tory and anti-Brexit voters are very fired up and eager to vote whereas Tory voters are a bit downbeat and reluctant supporters. Many Tories may not bother coming out to vote on May 3rd.
Yes there will be discussion about the future but it wont be on squabbling on our terms of exit - that will have passed.
Also I assume the EU's spin machine will have moved on - not sure what Faisil Islam will cover to be honest.
Good afternoon, everyone.
Sounds about right.
Edit: should have said, thanks for the article - it really is interesting as a lawyer.
Getting the sums right is the really difficult bit.
I object to claims like we can have a National Care Service for 3 billion pounds, because I can see that the claim is not serious.
The first thing to do when carrying out any task is to get the budget right. If you don’t t the budget right, you’ll fail.
I think Labour win if they're perceived not to be a threat to people's property.
If neither of those two things are clear, it will be close.
In the 1980s I was totally against Unilateral nuclear disarmament.However now , I honestly think it is not so clear cut, and I would probably take the SNP position.I like that he takes the members into consideration and is not an autocrat.I am not a member of any party , but it seems that the Labour and Lib Dems have a say and some influence.Hard to see what you get as.a Conservative member on input to policy decisions.
I must have missed out on the explanatory leaflet.
even 60:40 if the resources are available, and informed by a YouGov-like model.
I think seats like Bristol North West, Ilford North, and Enfield Southgate are gone. They'd only
seriously come into play again if the professional urban middle-classes there felt their property to be under real threat. But, I'd keep picking at Darlington, Plymouth Sutton, Blackpool South, Great Grimsby, Derby, Keighley, Newcastle-under-Lyme and Barrow.
Labour need to win the Swindons and Milton Keynes. They are already sweating a target list, and a number of London seats should naturally fall to them, but they can't assume Corbynism/McDonnellism won't be found out over the next 4 years, and the new towns might not like it.
I'd be working a tighter target list of 50-60 seats for them, to ensure that they can take power with just one sympathetic partner in a S&C deal or loose coalition and with EVEL, and a Lab-Lib majority over the Cons in the Lords, that should be enough for them to start their programme.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42599895
My personal theory is that the pro Corbyn appeal is partly that he is seen as authentic.
And partly that people like his policies.
A future Labour leader can keep the pppular policies.
But he or she will need to be seen as authentic to keep the coalition.
That suggests to me that Labour need their next leader to have been on board with Corbynism.
Not credible to have Chukka for instance saying he has been won round to free tuition fees or nationalising utilities.
And If Labour can get a leader who doesn’t so offend the anti-Corbynites I think they may be on to a winner.
It's always surprised me that anti-abortion has found it's home within right wingery....
The left should have hoovered up all the bible thumpers long ago. Jesus, the Madonna and St Peter's and Francis hardly strike me as tea party types.
The real point in the article, though, is that given the way FTAs are negotiated and the provisions they contain, there can be no automatic grandfathering - line by line adjustments will have to be made. Given the timeframe and the UK's manpower shortfall, even if there are no problems we are up against it.
So it is not surprising that it was non-Socialist and appealing. On top of which it never came under scrutiny.
But if we had ended up with a Corbyn government, I agree with Steve F. Its policies would not have looked in the slightest like the manifesto.
One of the reasons why Corbyn is such a disastrous leader is that everyone knows he and McDonnell are hard left Marxists who would have liked to put forward a 1983 type manifesto but in 2017 they chose to hide behind a moderate and mainstream manifesto. People in key marginals simply do not believe that Corbyn and McDonnell once in power would not revert back to hard left policies, nor do they have any confidence that they are competent to run an economy. They are repelled by Corbynista intimidation and bullying, and by Corbyn's past associations. They are disgusted by McDonells threats to lynch female politicians. And by Militant's return in the ugly form of Momentum.
Then there are the sums that dont add up. Corbyn's promised to abolish tuition fees for new students and to sort out historic tuition fees. To give everyone in the Public Sector a substantial pay rise. To nationalise rail and water. To properly fund the NHS and Social care. No mention of Tory cap on welfare in the manifesto but it would be unthinkable that Corbyn would not.
A substantial increase in spending but all on Thatcherite/Blairite levels of taxation. Corbyn promised that he would not raise taxes for 95% of the population, and that Corporation Tax would not be raised beyond Blairite levels.
How on Earth is he going to fund all that spending without raising taxes for most people?
The gaps in Labour's economic thinking, the leadership's failings and incompetence, the fascist behaviour of the Corbynista fanatics behind Corbyn, the infilitration by Momentum,the failure to make the leap between commendable spending plans and the ability to fund them will all ensure that Corbyn fails to win that substantial part of Middle England which would be crucial to him entering Downing Street.
Whether someone like Thornberry, whom I would support, could do so is open to question.
https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/963430125063888896
The day that A C Grayling finally went mad.
To win 45%+ and a working majority next time he needs to add Tory voters onto that total as well
http://jamesbond.wikia.com/wiki/Elliot_Carver
Which of course they (mainly) refuse to do.
Of course the issue does not arise for me because as far as I am concerned the matter is closed, the war lost.
The biggest factor of the 2017 election was the abysmal performance of the Lib Dems.
Did any PB readers predict it?
Not me and I still do not understand why millions of remainers in England did not vote Lib Dem.Or even now why they are still struggling to make any appeal.
If the tories do not hold a 2nd referendum on Brexit I expect things to change.There will be lots of losers after Brexit and they will blame the Tories if they do not hold a 2nd referendum
https://www.apnews.com/a6cd50b37105447991be9a9ce76c2421/Energy-riches-fuel-bitcoin-craze-for-speculation-shy-Iceland
At the end of the day they are simply not popular, and presumably therefore what they are offering is not very popular, for all it seems like some of it should be. Perhaps lots of pepole do want a second referendum, but not if it means voting ld apparently.
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On the side of a bus
If you want to reverse Brexit, you need the Labour centre/right to gain control of the party.
That was rendered impossible by the GE result.
"Tim Farron cost Theresa May her majority." Discuss.