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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What the proposed new boundaries would mean if Britain voted as in latest ICM poll
Over the next couple of years the boundaries review is going to become a major issue. The final proposals are almost there and to show the effect of them I have taken a projection, based on yesterday’s ICM poll, from Martin Baxter’s Electoral Calculus based on the old boundaries and compared them with the new.
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For this alone she deserves to be ousted.
Incidentally, 'Blighty' is derived from an Indian word meaning foreigner.
No wifi on my train, so ttfn.
Mr. Rentool, I'd heard similar to that. Sounds akin to Wales.
A rainbow coalition of all the market reassurances.
If we got back to the situation where there were, say, 40 Labour MPs from Scotland for, say, 800K votes then they would be getting an MP for every 20k votes and the "favouring" of the Tories would disappear.
This level of recovery seems unlikely to me but it is far from impossible. There are now a remarkable number of Labour/SNP marginals.
Politics seems to be stuck at the moment but are we really likely to see the major parties as close again as we did in 2017? If not, then one party or the other is likely to get a bigger "winners bonus" than either got in 2017.
Net +3 gain for the SNP looks optimistic ..
never mind - and thank you to DavidL and sandpit
No, the first table is based on 600 and the second on 650.Sorry, only got the edit when I refreshed.
Knowing your luck, it would be JRM.
https://services.parliament.uk/bills/2017-19/parliamentaryconstituenciesamendment.html
MPs whose seats disappear altogether - e.g. Priti Patel
MPs whose seats survive but are flipped - e.g. Boris's seat would have a Lab maj of 1,000
MPs whose seats survive but with a sharply reduced majority - e.g. Bob Stewart's Beckenham goes from 15k majority to 2k
The first category should be the easiest as they can be moved to seats where the MP is retiring. The second and third are harder as moving them could potentially lead to accusations of chicken running and Con MPs who are already in marginal seats may complain, if someone else gets to move to a safe seat and they don't.
I'll be interested to see what Lab does. I've said before that Corbyn should push to accept the boundary changes as it would be an opportunity to get rid of anti-Corbyn MPs
Disagree on this, there is a backlash from Nationalist voters now. One town, Dungiven, has been divided between two (technically almost three) constituencies...
https://www.derryjournal.com/news/boundary-commission-plan-to-split-dungiven-in-two-1-8361746
It would enable Labour to go into the GE with Mr Corbyn in post as PM - which would do wonders for the way people perceived him. Sitting PMs almost always do better in the poll questions about 'Who would make the better PM?', don't they?
On the boundaries issue - are they still going for the Devonwall constituency that causes such dismay?
Good afternoon, everybody.
Can the House of Lords stop it? Would they?
A controversial innuendo-laden Christmas advertising campaign from Poundland has been banned.
The retailer's "Elf Behaving Badly" campaign has been deemed irresponsible and likely to cause widespread offence by the Advertising Standards Authority (ASA).
Poundland posted a series of images on its Twitter and Facebook pages of an elf toy in a number of sexualised poses, including playing strip poker and sitting in a tub with naked dolls.
The retailer made headlines in the run-up to Christmas when tea company Twinings accused it of "misusing" its product after Poundland tweeted a picture of an elf dangling a Twinings teabag over a female doll, simulating a sex act.
https://news.sky.com/story/poundlands-controversial-naughty-elf-christmas-ad-campaign-banned-11239730
https://twitter.com/bbcthisweek/status/961258426016915456
Mr. Eagles, did you see the handwringing over a tennis lady's thigh being seen, leading to (after one complaint) the ad being verboten?
Daft as the painting being taken down by Manchester Art Gallery, or the puritanical axing of darts and grid girls (protest about that on 10 February but I don't imagine much'll come of it).
All started with that bedwetting banning of a healthy women being featured on a tube advert.
0.935x + 16.6 (The line of best fit gave a pro Tory swing at 16.6% ex Kipper vote), however the r^2 was only 0.435.
One of the more stunning results for Labour in terms of pure swing and ex Kipper vote was East Worthing and Shoreham where on the surface it looks like Sophie Cook utterly smashed it amongst ex Kippers for Labour.
Both the Thanets were good results for Labour too, as was Hartlepool.
Seats with a decent Labour -> Tory swing with low Kipper numbers is dominated by Lib Dem -Tory contests with the exception of Hallam but the same dynamic of leave Lib Dems heading back to the Tories was wot won it for Labour there.
Westmorland and Lonsdale; Sheffield Hallam, Thornbury and Yate, Lewes, Brecon and Radnorshire are all in the bottom right of the graph !
Edit - although the Bill currently going through parliament puts a limit of October 2020 on the new Review it mandates.
I found the decision by the CPS not to prosecute him for more offences and the decision of the Home Office not to seek to review the decision themselves remarkable. Khan's positioning on this is likely to cut him a lot of slack on Law and Order when he stands for re-election.
Over what period of time?
If John Worboys isn’t worthy of a life sentence, then who is?
Christian group Core Issues Trust had hired a screen at Vue Piccadilly, London, to show the film "Voices of the Silenced" on Thursday.
The documentary tells the stories of 15 people "emerging out of homosexual lifestyles" and aims to "preserve and promote teachings on sexual ethics".
But Vue cancelled the booking after the event drew criticism.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-42974961
https://news.sky.com/story/hit-to-northern-ireland-and-north-east-england-gdp-revealed-in-new-brexit-impact-papers-leak-11240254
If the nutjobs feel the need to spread their lunacy, they can always put it on youtube.
https://leftfootforward.org/2018/02/as-remainers-we-cant-win-the-brexit-debate-solely-on-economics/
I can but dream...
Or are you now claiming that the leave vote was built on prejudice and xenophobia?
https://twitter.com/MarkoSilberhand/status/960844592571707392
Governments -especially Tory governments -tend to do better than what they are polling at this stage of a parliament. Miliband and Kinnock were both in double digit leads before losing on general election day. For Corbyn to be level pegging and slightly behind is very bad news.
Since polling began,no opposition has ever formed a government without being at least 15 points ahead between elections. Add to that a new Tory leader, a better Tory manifesto, Brexit done and dusted, Corbyn being 73, a Tory campaign much more brutal and a forensic taking apart of Labour's economic policies, older people coming out to vote in droves, and I think Labour's chances of forming a government so long as Corbyn is leader are very remote indeed whatever the boundaries.
And remember too the self denying phrophecy rule of British politics. The more something is predicted to happen, the less likely it is to come true. The more a Labour government is predicted, the less likely it is to happen. Labour is heading for a very famous defeat in 2022 indeed.
If we panic and go back into the EU now, we would effectively be finished as an independent country.
We can now reveal just how difficult to shift the Leave vote is – even in the face of economic calamity. BMG Research polling for Best for Britain and Left Foot Forward shows:
When asked whether ‘prices going up significantly’ would make people switch from Leave to Remain, just 7% of Leave voters said it would change their view
We asked if ‘the national economy going into a recession’ would change their view. Just 9% of Leave voters said it would
Even when asked if they’d change support if their ‘personal finances [got] worse’, again only 7% said they would switch to Remain
The figure rises to 11% when asked their view if the ‘NHS [was] damaged / worse off as a result’ of Brexit: 11% of Leave voters would back halting Brexit
All of this goes to show that people – rightly or wrongly – view Brexit as an issue of values, not of rigid economic projections.
Up to you.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-germany-autos-britain/german-car-suppliers-could-lose-thousands-of-jobs-over-hard-brexit-study-idUKKBN1F0138
"BERLIN (Reuters) - A so-called “hard Brexit” involving tariffs and a lasting devaluation of the pound could cause thousands of job losses at German automotive suppliers, a study by accounting firm Deloitte showed."
Like a hard Irish border, nobody wants a high tarrif Brexit - and hence not very likely.
What may happen is 7 -10 years from now Honda/Nissan will not invest in their plants here and gradually wind them down - although why Nissan would want to close their most productive plant on the planet is anyone's guess.....
Sheesh.
However, I think there is sufficient evidence to show the public are not persuaded
Shrugs.
Mr. NorthWales, Faisal Islam's a daft sod, wilfully exaggerating economic data (0.1% spike in inflation) whenever it suits him.
People and business adapt - and thrive - and innovate. The chicken licken's of remain are frightened of tomorrow.
Anything else is the ebb and flow of entrenched posotions as demonstrated on here daily
This has meant obvious coherent communities having to be split up. In the South East where the population has grown sufficiently that existing constituencies meet the enlarged electorate number (with 50 fewer constituencies), they are still having to be unnecessarily split up because of a domino effect from the odd neighbouring constituency being too big to squeeze into the 5% variation.
Also the Boundary Commission has been constrained by constituencies not being allowed to cross EU election region boundaries - despite Brexit.
Famously spent an entire pre-budget exclusive interview with George Os asking him if he travelled first class on the train or not.
It will take two large foreign-owned companies withdrawing. Might be Nissan, might be a city firm.
That will start the panic.
https://waitingfortax.com/2018/02/07/a-summary-in-english-of-the-decision-of-the-district-court-in-amsterdsm/
Spanish law says he doesn't need to go to jail and he has paid the tax demand of one million euros
Messi was handed a 21 month jail sentence and he has not gone to jail either
Really, this is just laughable. It's pin the tail on a donkey.