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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The little CON polling flurry has come at a bad time for the leadership plotters
We are living in a time when much of the talk at Westminster continues to be how many CON MPs have written to Graham Brady, 1922 Committee chair, asking for a vote of confidence to be held on Mrs. May. Once he’s received 48 of these Brady has to immediately set up a leadership ballot. The last time the process was invoked MPs were voting within 24 hours.
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https://tinyurl.com/LightBluesRockDarkBluesSuck
In the case of IDS it just happened to be during the Parliamentary week when most MPs were nearby to hold the contest.
If the sufficient number is triggered say on a Friday the vote would be on Monday.
Plus there's a recess next week.
So, with this polling - game on!!
We should keep buggering on.
I expect current polls are irrelevant to the machinations of the angry hoards behind her.
From: http://privatewww.essex.ac.uk/~tquinn/leadership_election_rules.htm
I agree that if it’s late in the week or during a recess (when lots of ministers will be travelling) it might take a few days to arrange the vote.
At the moment with the Tory voteshare holding up, no alternative leader polling better than May and the local elections in May likely to be OK for the Tories nationally (helped by the collapse of UKIP) short of a by election disaster May will hold on until Brexit is done
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/960938251283501058?ref_src=twcamp^share|twsrc^m5|twgr^email|twcon^7046|twterm^1
There are two dangers for them. The first is panicking early and getting rid of May too soon. The second is getting complacent when they retake a decent lead after the deal and keeping her on.
Clement Attlee should be a lot higher up that list.
Not sure why Emmeline Pankhurst is so high on that list.
Mind you, any girl who wants to chain herself to *my* railings and suffer a jet movement gets *my* vote!
https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/02/pardoning-the-suffragettes-would-be-wrong/
Twenty stone them.
The NHS is also ridiculously high on the "proud to be British" list, whereas in truth the Magna Carta and Bill of Rights are far more important, IMHO.
I put it down to a bad education.
http://www.spacex.com/webcast
FFS which Northern Working Mens Club was this carried out in
I have some sympathy with pardoning those still alive convicted under laws now repealed that left them with a criminal record, but I have to say I think it could be achieved differently.
Also - serious question to the lawyers - under British law does accepting a pardon imply guilt, as in the US, or is it seen as an extension of the Royal Prerogative on justice?
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/960949244982018049
Why is the Queen listed as a political figure?
I thought the British public had high standards, appears not.
Listen to the noisy left and you wouldn't imagine that.
Edit to add, he said the following "I am strongly in favour of using poisoned gas against the uncivilized tribes… it would spread a lively terror."
Dresden alone was a war crime.
https://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/news/2191142/pro-union-activist-cops-donor-list-leak-david-clews/
Churchill used chemical weapons as well.
How soon we forget.
Below are a number of events and episodes in British history. Which, if any, make you especially proud to be British?
Having the world’s largest empire in the 19th century
Remain: 7
Leave: 16
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/iopahgu564/InternalResults_180205_Feminism_Suffragettes_w.pdf
Major railway junction 60 miles from the Eastern Front of no military value....no siree!
We are living through a period when on past experience, the Opposition should be well ahead of the government. Its the most depressing time of the year, there is an NHS crisis, the prime minister lacks authority, her party is divided and publicly squabbling, the media is dominated by Remain propaganda, and yet astonishingly, this week the Tories are either level-pegging or ahead of Labour.
I think Theresa May is pretty much guaranteed the keys of Number Ten until 2020. Even if there were a leaderhip contest, I think she would win it -and frankly if I were her having done so, the first thing I would do would be to sack both Johnson and Gove. I am sure there is a pantomime horse somewhere they could fill in the Summer season.
Nelson Mandela rated strongly (high 30s) across the board:
Thatcher:
18-24: 5
65+: 40
I don't think there was anything he did in WW2 that was a war crime.
They're the only party that can point to unequivocal success in government. And yet, they don't bother.
What they actually do is tart themselves up and promise some sort of favours to another party that has decided to line up behind the stupidest man in Christendom.
Apart from those slight oddities.. They really should be the natural recipients of my vote, and yet they've never even been close to consideration.
If there's a vote of confidence, what's the minimum number of MPs for Theresa May to be able to continue in practice? 200?
I have been inspired by recent films to read "Citizen Clem" the recent Attlee biography. I don't think he himself would be bothered by his place in that list. He seemed genuinely unassuming, and would be happy that his policies rather than personality were valued by posterity. It is a great book on prewar Britain btw.
She has to beat John Major's figure in 1995.
Match starts 8.40 tomorrow morning.
You remind me of Churchill's remark that Atlee was a modest man with much to be modest about. I suspect Clem would have been happy with that!
If she gets less than 200 MPs, even if it's a majority, she's toast.
Many historians believe the militant wing of the WSPU actually set back the cause of women's suffrage, because their uncompromising extra judicial action put people off. Woman had the vote in local Government from 1897 onwards, and there were Bills in the HoC for votes for women from about 1905 onwards. Many Liberal MPs subsequently turned against women's suffrage because they were put off by the hardline campaign and even some of them thought that campaign vindicated arguments of their opponents.
It was the quiet moderate majority that won woman the vote, and the very hard work so many millions of women did during WW1 to prove their point, not the publicity seeking Suffragettes.
Went to see it a week ago and liked it, but had some reservations.