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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Graham Brady – 1922 committee chairman and the only one who kn
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Graham Brady – 1922 committee chairman and the only one who knows how safe TMay is
Pictured above is Graham Brady, Chair of the Conservative 1922 Committee and MP for Altrincham & Sale – which is just down the road from Old Trafford where Manchester’s second football team plays.
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http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/jacob-rees-mogg-should-not-be-next-tory-leader-says-mp-in-charge-of-contest_uk_5a580a02e4b02cebbfda5c8a
Bring back Sir Michael Spicer.
https://twitter.com/standardnews/status/958074844561707009
Given the trouble Mrs May keeps on causing I won't be surprised to see her buying off Graham Brady with a Royal Dukedom.
A confident PM would have turned up to the debates.
A confident PM would have campaigned amongst the voters.
A confident PM could have won the election but confidence was lacking prior to votes being cast.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-42860723
How do we know there haven't been 48 for a while?
A heck of a lot of power for one (recently knighted) person.
That's a sub rounding error in the grand scheme of government income.
She had a vast support network of those wanting her to win and win big last June.
Yet she failed - perhaps not confidence but over-confidence.
If it is co-ordinated like 2003, the rebels themselves know how many letters have been sent, and when to deliver the coup de grâce.
Although increasing tax on foreign travel is itself no bad thing for a country with a £20bn tourism deficit.
However her actions haven't really changed. Pre election her refusing to debate Corbyn was portrayed as the actions of someone supremely confident that she'd win and didn't need to debate. However she's still acting the same way now.
@AlbertoNardelli: The analysis shines a light on the core of May's challenge: possibility of mitigating the damage of Brexit is in regulatory divergence and FTAs, but the more the UK diverges the greater the barriers with its biggest market and the economic hit
https://twitter.com/johnrentoul/status/958092968031870979
' Today, we are setting out our assessment of what would happen in the weeks and months after a vote to Leave on June 23.
It is clear that there would be an immediate and profound shock to our economy.
The analysis produced by the Treasury today shows that a vote to leave will push our economy into a recession that would knock 3.6 per cent off GDP and, over two years, put hundreds of thousands of people out of work right across the country, compared to the forecast for continued growth if we vote to remain in the EU.
In a more severe shock scenario, Treasury economists estimate that our economy could be hit by 6 per cent, there would be a deeper recession and unemployment would rise by even more.
...
House price growth would be hit by at least ten per cent and as much as 18 per cent, making homeowners poorer. There wouldn’t be good news for young people trying to get on the housing ladder, though, because mortgages would be harder to get and more expensive. '
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/22/david-cameron-and-george-osborne-brexit-would-put-our-economy-in/
I think the evidence of the last decade suggests that we should be rather sceptical of anything predicted 'under all scenarios' and instead look for something a little more open-minded.
If the air is to be cleared a la John Major 1995, then so be it. But I suspect that May would win any confidence vote right now.
It may or it may not and I expect the recession wolf to turn up at some point, and the when and where and why are even more uncertain.
But those who say it will turn up at a specific time and place under all scenarios are just exposing how closed minded they are.
Something which denizens of a gambling associated site should all have learnt by now.
My bete noir, Daniel Hannan, complains bitterly in the Telegraph about the "vassal state" terms with the EU but doesn't propose an alternative. I am sure he used to talk approvingly about Norway's arrangement with the EU. Now he seems to think it a form of slavery, if less than what's proposed for our transition.
The most interesting takeaway from the Guardian poll a few days ago that showed most people supported a second trending is that half the people think Brexit will have no economic effect or be beneficial. They are wrong about that, but the point is, as long as they think it, Brexit is assured.
Wasn't the Treasury predicting that GDP would be 4% lower in 2030 after a Leave rather than a Remain vote.
But then managed to underpredict the 18 months after the Leave vote by more than that 4% ?
Is it just rubber from the Brexiteers' swift course direction, who went from "Brexit will be brilliant" to "Brexit won't be quite as shit as you thought" ?
But managed to predict a recession which didn't occur.
No.Maybe yes. I was thinking of something else. ApologiesWas it Scott finally realising it isn't all about Lattes and car parts?
Non-tariff barriers. Now, who said that? Repeatedly.
And how does it pertain to car parts?
oh...
Politics. Is. Not. All. About. Economics.
If we were in a 1990 style scenario, when Thatcher had introduced the unpopular poll tax after a decade in power and alternative leaders like Major and Heseltine were polling better against Labour than she was then it may be a different story but we are not.
YMMV...
*I've been waiting 20 minutes for someone to post a link to this piece.
Economy rebalancing, trade and budget deficits at their lowest as a proportion of GDP for about 15 years, manufacturing and house construction having their best periods for at least 20 years, stock markets at new highs.
How will Jezza avoid asking about this for 6 questions?
Using GDP as the only measure of health and well being in a country is bonkers. At the very least it should at least take into account the number of people in a country.
I've sort of come round to thinking that Osborne was right to set up the OBR - although the OBR's predictions don't have a good record themselves.
Putting that in perspective, in the last ten years trend growth should have been 19.8% or thereabouts. Instead, we've grown 10.6%. We've been robbed.
Goodnight all.
The FTA scenario is that we would be 5% worse off, £100b a year in size of econony and say £35b less tax revenue.
The EEA scenario is the most benign in that we would be 2% worse off, £40b a year in size of economy and say £15b less tax revenue.
But we would have blue passports.
There isn't the incentive for project fear that there was in a referendum campaign. There will be close questioning of the assumptions and methodology by the Cabinet, that there wasn't with Osborne's projections. I think they will take them seriously.
Gordo has much to answer for..
Anyway I think there's good news today from a Remainer perspective. The proposed "transition" arrangement. The EU acquis is full of goodness and this means we benefit from it for a further two years. There also isn't a sensible alternative to it.
Interesting information on the Immigration Minister:
http://jacparty.weebly.com/caroline-nokes-mp.html
We're clearly not living in the world predicted 100 or 50 or even 20 years ago.