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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Winning where? The Lib Dem targets for 2022
Three years ago, the Lib Dems were still in government. Danny Alexander and Nick Clegg comprised half of the quad, the inner circle that fixed the government’s direction. It feels like a lifetime ago now. The Lib Dems were reduced to 8 MPs in 2015 and recovered only to 12 MPs last year (with a slight decline in vote share nationally), despite being the only party to advocate remaining in the EU. Replacing Tim Farron with Vince Cable has not given them any more airtime or sense of relevance.
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Nope. Doesn't ring any bells
Round my way they put in no effort, where usually they put in loads, and as a result are still not even recovered to the string second place they usually have. On the other hand, they succeeded in winning back a target seat where all their effort went.
So while as the table shows they don't have high votes in enough places, defendibg what they have then building on the targets seems the best approach when no massive swell of support can be expected. It risks labour supplanting them as the not tory vote in some places, but they need seats. They lost a few they'd hoped to have held last time, but it worked in Scotland.
However, the yellows have a big problem. Those who are tribally loyal Labour aren't moving, and the reds also benefit from strong far left support. Those opposed to that have a single credible option to stop Chairman Corbyn from getting in: the Conservatives.
So who votes Lib Dem? Corbyn is an anchor for both main parties. His cult will always vote for him and so will Labour (rather than Corbyn) supporters because, unlike in Scotland, English/Welsh brand loyalty remains very strong. Those who oppose his madness, whilst despairing of Conservative rudderlessness, will vote blue.
The yellows *might* benefit from tactical voting, but those ultra-keen on Corbyn may still dislike the 'treachery' of the Lib Dems being in coalition.
Glad to see his more bonkers ideas getting an airing, hopefully he can talk about exchange controls next.
If you want to see the homeless on a vast scale, then implement Corbyn's open borders immigration policy. We will have the world's homeless making a beeline for us.
As for tax: paying tax to fund public services is not the same thing as confiscating possessions.
England 4.7 to take the wickets.
The real issue with this policy is not the help for the homeless, which is a good thing. Rather, it does nothing for those struggling to become homeowners.
Allowing local authorities to take over vacant properties is possibly much more problematic. What does “take over” mean? Appropriation? Purchase? Out of what budget?
What does “vacant” mean? A home where the owner has died and it is empty while probate is being obtained? A house which is let and is between lettings? A house which is in the process of being renovated? A house where the owner is working temporarily abroad or in another part of the country during the week only? How long must a house be a vacant for before it is taken over?
Will the homeless be expected to pay rent and, if so, at what rate? What sort of tenure will they be given? What rights will the homeowner have as landlord?
Etc etc.
As with pretty much all of Corbyn’s ideas, the devil will be in the detail. And we rarely get any detail from Corbyn.
Pb's Tories need to breathe into a paper bag.
This doesn't sound a great idea to me - if nothing else CPOs are not quick, as others have noted, so it would hardly be as easy as Corbyn thinks - but would it piss off enough people who would not already still have voted 'not labour' anyway? If it wouldn't, then it keeping the base happy would still have a net positive effect for Corbyn.
Edit: 192/7
England now odds on to take the wickets.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/live/cricket/41818614
NZ Labour had given up hope & looked on course for a bruising defeat.
When people make confident predictions for 2022 on pb, just smile & think of Jacinta.
The right leader could easily reinvigorate the Tories or LibDems or Labour. All 3 parties have flawed leaders at the moment.
Curiously (as with NZ Labour), it may be the party that becomes most desperate that ultimately wins.
It is desperation that will produce a Jacinta.
The practical workable solutions is the hard bit.
More seriously, I think the 'anti Tory alliance' theory is less likely with the hard left in charge of Labour.
Corbyn will implement a partial policy (which is probably affordable), say tuition fees back to 3k a year.
And point to politics' perennial fall guys, and say "I can't make University tuition free because of the LibDems, but I've done the best I can. The people to blame are over there."
Seems to be holding so far - but we shall see. And of course due to her pregnancy the leader of New Zealand first will become PM for two months this year - not bad for a party which got 7 per cent in the election.
Corbyn might face similar issues - relying on the Lib Dems and probably the SNP and Greens.
Ooh, and another one caught, 203/8. We could win this despite our collapse earlier and not using all the overs.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Empty_Dwelling_Management_Orders
All other things being equal if you have immigration you are going to put pressure on housing. But there are quite a few other factors. For example overseas investors buying houses in London and keeping them empty as investments will put pressure on housing as well.
Compulsory purchase of empty houses and restricting immigration are both policies that would help. But both have other consequences. If you are serious about the problem you would look at it in depth. I don't have time to do so myself so I have to select a political party to do it for me.
He isn't actually going to take the properties over and hand over the deeds and ownership to the homeless people - they will simply rent them.
We know he doesn't believe in private property at all, the idea that a vote for Labour will make it easier for young people to get on the housing ladder is madness.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Empty_Dwelling_Management_Orders
BBC "The official attendance is 53,781, and 15,000 of those have already left. I just don't understand that. It's a Sunday afternoon and the match is set up nicely."
Civil Contingencies Act 2004 springs to mind.
http://www.spiegel.de/reise/deutschland/deutsche-bahn-19-000-neue-jobs-in-2018-a-1190193.html
You know that. And I know that. But voters don't:
Party position on Brexit Clear (net, excl. DK):
Con: -22
Lab: -33
LibD: -30
The practical effect will be to nudge speculative owners into putting long-empty properties on the market for rent themselves. Good.
Very easy to avoid - don't leave properties empty long term and rent them out yourself or move in yourself.
There are 7-8 seats there they should be able to swipe from the Tories in a "change" election, but I suspect fear of Corbyn within them is a greater motivator than kick-the-Tories out, at present.
Aus 2.42, Eng 1.69 (because this is a betting site!)
So Tories deeply depressed by the ineptitude of May see Corbyn and think keeping him out is a priority. Labour inclined supporters, except the far left, may be in deep gloom about Corbyn but fear a Tory party where the influence of extreme Brexiteers is excessive, to put it politely. When keeping the other lot out is the priority and it is close the Lib Dems look like an indulgence. They did better when one party was dominant (Blair's new Labour in particular) and what we were looking for was a reasonably principled and articulate opposition. We don't have one of those at the moment but the Lib Dems are going to have to wait until it is less close.
O/T I am amazed the cricket has got so tight.