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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB/CON/LDs all see vote shares up, UKIP/GREEN down in January
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB/CON/LDs all see vote shares up, UKIP/GREEN down in January local by elections
Votes Cast, Share, Vote Share Change and Seat Change Conservatives 11,047 votes (47.75% +5.71% on last time) winning 7 seats (+1 seat on last time) Labour 6,036 votes (26.09% +6.28% on last time) winning 1 seat (-1 seat on last time) Liberal Democrats 3,538 votes (15.29% +5.62% on last time) winning 1 seat (unchanged on last time) Independent candidates 1,070 votes (4.62% -3.29% on last time) winning 1 seat (unchanged on last time) Green Party 727 votes (3.14% -4.25% on last time) winning 0 seats (unchanged on last time) United Kingdom Independence Party 718 votes (3.10% -9.45% on last time) winning 0 seats (unchanged on last time) Conservative lead of 5,011 votes (21.66%) on a swing of 0.29% from Con to Lab
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The only real surprise, perhaps, is the Green vote tumbling. But they might be attracted by Corbyn's brand of lunacy.
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/957295470358999040
Also note the proportion of UKIPers who went (back?) to not voting, the higher turnout of previous DNVs who were Remain v Leave, and an indication that Tory Remainers could be fertile ground for the LibDems.
The next election remains very hard to try and call.
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/06/27/how-britain-voted/
I agree with Jacob Rees-Mogg, the leader of the hardline pro-Brexit faction of Conservative MPs. There. I’ve said it. I never thought I would — and I doubt I ever will again — but he is right about one crucial component in the Brexit puzzle: the transition period.
https://www.ft.com/content/be44ff5a-028e-11e8-9e12-af73e8db3c71
As part of a wide ranging attack on Michael Gove, Ydoethur made a well founded criticism of the huge variation in standards of marking between different exam boards. This would indeed be a reasonable attack were it not for one important fact. Michael Gove fought very hard to scrap the different boards and have them replaced with one standardised board at a national level - something which is eminently sensible. He was prevented from doing so by Cameron and the Lib Dems who blocked the proposals, He also wanted to scrap GCSEs, which have frankly been a disaster for education since they were introduced by Thatcher in 1986. But that was blocked by Parliament.
Our education system has been a laughing stock and unfit for purpose since long before Gove appeared on the scene and given that every suggested change has been fought tooth and nail by teachers I am not inclined to take them seriously when they criticise those partial reforms that did get through.
Plaid did remarkably well to end up with a seat gain whilst retaining only 28% of their core vote.
Electoral calculus is showing there are 39 Tory marginals where, on current polls, there are enough.
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/gainloss.html
If Rees-Mogg genuinely prefers an extension to A50 (where we would retain control) rather than a transition period (where we would be a vassal state), then an extension of A50 could be on the cards.
I'm on it but more as a small compensation if it comes to pass rather than as a value bet.
https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/957318566306598913
On Betfair, May to go Jan-Mar is 12.5, and Apr-Jun is 6. There has not been a significant shift there today.
The British people will not be amused if they are asked to elect MEPs in 2019, when we voted to leave 3 years earlier.
Moreover, he didn't try and get rid of exam boards - he just wanted each subject offered only by one. When a Telegraph investigation into Chief Examiners cheating (giving away information for money) made it clear this was a model for widespread corruption that idea was ditched as well. For some subjects - Politics, Philosophy and Classics spring to mind - that has de facto happened anyway because there is too much work for too little reward involved in writing the course. Other A-levels, such as Archaeology, have died altogether.
Can I please stress I was an ardent supporter of Gove in 2010 and delighted with his ideas. It is not the principles it's their disastrous misapplication in practice due to his haste and hubris that has put me off.
EDIT: And just look at Gove's appearance.
And the replacement for GCSEs with the English Bacc. was not quickly dropped because the couldnt suggest a replacement. It was dropped bevause the Lib Dems refused to support it in principle. The plans did not envisage the new exams coming in until summer 2017 so all that was happening in 2013 was the establishment of the principle.
Apathy needs to be considered as real an alternative as any other party.
The EBACC has not been dropped. It's just a cluster of GCSEs rather than a discrete qualification.
I will take your word for it on exam boards as I was working in a university at the time and not following closely. Would you have a link though as that's not what I understood to be happening?
Are you happy with the chaos in exams, including mistakes in the content, late changes in the system of assessment and silly errors in the marking?
Are you happy with academies taken decisions from parents and giving them to some pretty dubious organisations e.g. E-Act?
Are you happy with OFSTED becoming an ego trip for retired figures who are friends of the Minister?
And if you are not happy with these very major problems - why do you like Gove so much?
Boris will always be a good prospect to win a general election, but I don’t think a lazy, unreliable adulterer should be prime minister. Appearance is important, but substance can’t be thrown overboard entirely.
Either Gove's reforms were half baked, or he was incapable of persuading others to implement them, or possibly both.
That is not to say that he is unintelligent, but it is to say that he is unsuitable for leadership. He is an ideas man, but without the skill to complete.
Bottom line. Teachers detest changes to the system and have long failed to recognise that it is an utterly discredited system and has been for decades. They opposed everything Gove tried to do and now blame him because they will not accept that a fundamental reform has been long overdue.
When Gove has been lauded for his work in two other ministries perhaps you need to start asking where the problem really was at Education.
Let her finish Brexit then have a leadership contest
(Tho I am actually a West Brok fan!)
The fat lady hasn't sung just yet, and there are plenty of people determined to stop her from doing so.
As for self-indulgence, I'm sure the same would have been said in the late summer of 1990 had sites like this existed then with Thatcher loyalists among the membership exhorting MPs to stay loyal and keep calm.
The Ipsos MORI poll showing Labour 3% ahead would cost the Conservatives 40 seats according to Baxter. One of the principal reasons for the ousting of Margaret Thatcher was the fear among backbenchers she would cost them their seats and jobs whereas Heseltine (and later Major) would give them a chance of survival.
Until and unless there is a viable which means clearly better in the public eye alternative the Prime Minister is safe and even if the Party's overall poll number starts to decline she will be safe in lieu of an alternative who will do any better.
And in any case a 3 point lead in polls before an election is not the same thing as a 3 point lead on election day. Remember Miliband had a 12 point lead.
In the real world Brexit isn't the only thing voters care about - and for many it's not a voting determinant at all.
Additionally outside the bubble TM is doing reasonably OK with the public so no point indulging in a leadership race now. May 2019 is the time for it
And by the way WBA are playing out of their skins at present
Party sources confirmed to the Observer that the meeting, scheduled for early February, would look at adapting and developing Labour’s approach during “phase two” of the Brexit process.
The gathering – which will be seen as a response to unrest and the threat of rebellions by dozens of Labour MPs – will be held at a location “away from Westminster”, and will involve senior shadow cabinet members in policy areas most affected by the UK’s departure from the EU.
The news suggests Labour may soon announce a major shift in policy that would see it back permanent membership of some form of customs union with the EU after Brexit – opening a potentially decisive dividing line with Theresa’s May’s increasingly fractured government.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/27/jeremy-corbyn-pressure-change-of-direction-on-brexit
https://twitter.com/bbchelenalee/status/957369696424165376
Been too busy celebrating a WBA win