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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » There’s a good case for the man with NHS lapel badge
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » There’s a good case for the man with NHS lapel badge
Clearly the overnight news about the possibility of a move against Theresa May has led to speculation about who would replace her. The Etonian pair of Rees-Mogg and Johnson remain top in the betting but I wonder whether they will be able to get the backing of enough MPs to make it to the postal vote stage.
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Some banks are already refusing to accept the proceeds of sales of Bitcoins precisely because of the money laundering risk.
And from today at Davos (according to Bloomberg):
IMF Wary of Cryptocurrencies (12:09 p.m.)
The International Monetary Fund is aware there will be innovations but believes crypto-anonimity and its use to conceal illicit trades such as terror financing and money laundering is “unacceptable,” Managing Director Christine Lagarde said during a discussion panel.
https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/956501928778838016
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/956515686880182272
It should be on the PRA or FCA's radar with government support where necessary.
@welshowl - with the amount of saved capital the world is awash with, and the amount of government bond debt, I suspect interest rates are going to be on the floor for decades...
There wont be a move against Theresa May in the short term. Anymore than as the Express says today that eating curry protects you from dementia.
In the medium to long term ....Jeremy Hunt? Really?
He's not a good performer. He's a boring speaker. He looks like a startled in the headlamps rabbit. He sweats under pressure. And he is associated with old ladies dying on hospital trollies. Some have interpreted his previous writings as his being against the principle of the NHS.
And his name rhymes with a word which young Corbynistas would love to write a rival Oh jeremy Corbyn song to.
Is there really a serious argument for Jeremy Hunt?
Does he "look the part" of a PM more? Is he more media-friendly than she is? * Is he more charismatic or inspiring? Does he have a substantially different view to May on all the various policy areas the Tories got slaughtered on in 2017? Who exactly are the voters he would win over that May failed to?
(* I can imagine his blinky eyes being the equivalent of May's "gurning" tic)
I'm sure that TSE will be along in a moment in full Finbarr Saunders mode regarding beavers.
Michael Gove wouldn't be a bad choice either.
Further suitable names can be supplied.
/Naked Gun
"Jerry Hunt's is a magical world
Full of strippers and long-legged girls
Clark Kent's got nothing on me
I'll spy like James Bond and die like King Kong
No one pushes Jerry Hunt around
Well, they do, but not for long
When I get fit and grow bionic arms
The whole world's gonna wish it weren't born
I could be a superman
Satisfy any whim that I wanted to
I could be a human machine
I could show Steve Austin a thing or two"
Clearly prime-ministerial qualities, I think we can all agree.
He's fluent, doesn't shy away from fights or from the media, he's not abrasive and he presents things plausibly. The public would give him a fair crack of the whip and I expect that like Theresa May he might get rather a long honeymoon in which to establish himself.
Whether he has any kind of vision, however, is completely unknown at present.
On the vision thing, it's always hard to assess in advance of someone becoming leader, but he's certainly sharp and very political, which might be enough anyway.
The question is whether he could hold together what would still be a minority administration which means all the factions need to be assuaged and on board. That is tricky. May survives because there in no clear answer to that in respect of any of the potential candidates. But paralysis is only a short term solution and time has been moving on for some time now.
Where the hell is the housebuilding program; the northern infrastructure program; the spades in the ground at Heathrow; the sense of urgency in respect of the NHS winter crisis (even Boris got that one) and the overarching vision of how we are going to operate after Brexit? It's bordering on tragic.
https://twitter.com/philipstephens/status/956392688605192193
That would change if he were to be considered for the leadership or for PM.
Although I tend to take the view of Hunt that he is the Conservative in charge of Health rather than against the wishes of his party enacting his policy* on the NHS, I guess I share any condemnation for problems much more across the party, which might be a kinder view than many others on the left take.
*Obviously there is an element of this.
He presents himself quite well, I cannot see him turning voters off because of his personality, he has been moderate on Brexit. Unless the NHS stuff is a real vote killer he does look a decent pick of the current runners.
You can't help feeling that May doesn't want any of her Cabinet shining in case it leads to obvious conclusions.
The reality is that there are only two proven campaigners of ability in the Tories at the moment, one of whom is a loose cannon, and the other of which is out of Westminster. Once you rule those out, you get quite a lot of blanks on the paper. The best you can then do is look for a lack of negatives (which historically has been quite a good way of predicting who the next Tory leader will be).
Before the referendum it was the loonier type of Brexiteer who thought that the UK government could lay down what it wanted without asking our EU friends. Now the Continuity Remainers have joined them in making the identical mistake.
Gove would be an excellent choice but for two things. He's not a team player and Dominic Cummings is even worse than Fiona Hill.
For as long as Corbyn is around the Tories are guaranteed power But AaHunt premiership would result in another hung parliament with the Tories again the largest party, as now, but without a majority.If the Tories want a majority, they need someone with a dynamic vision and style.
Is that all there is?
Is that all there is?
If that's all there is, my friend,
Then let's keep dancing.
We'll open the booze and have a ball.
If that's all
There is.....
But I do question his "fluency". I've always found his interviews to be very Maybot-like: just repeating the stock lines, in a flat monotone, not really showing any of the magic "empathy" (as opposed to, say, Amber Rudd, who even when on a difficult subject is quite good at putting up a vigorous defence, at sounding like she's engaging with the questions rather than just robotically repeating memorised lines, and at sounding sincere when giving spiel like "I understand people are having a tough time, but this is necessary" blahblahblah). I don't think people would hate Hunt as such, but I do think that, like May post-honeymoon, they would find him to be an utterly uncompelling personality.
Personally, I think there's a hint of something a little bit 'off' about him, but he'd be something of an upgrade from May's bizarre persona.
He’s a good communicator from what I’ve seen and was very successful in business previously.
He hasn’t been a good health secretary but he can justifiably argue that he has been shortchanged by Tory chancellors. If he promised the £350m/week for the NHS - I think that would certainly win the public over.
Standing in front of the cameras, appealing for the trust of the public, I'm not sure he'd get that many takers...
..without offering something concrete in return.
https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/956524178030686208
No Tory would win the favour of the left.
Jeremy Hunt is probably quite well placed on that score, at least in the sense that we doesn't seem to have lots of enemies who will be trying to ensure he's not in the final two. Some other of the names bandied about, such as Boris or Gavin Williamson ... well, make your own judgement.
The fact that the left dismiss him is a huge plus. They did the same for Cameron.
It meant that lots of left leaning voters stayed at home....
Sensible PB articles for a happier bank balance
He most certainly does.
I have no problem with Hunt in Cabinet but he is not an election winner
They favour no one.
When he seeks re-election in 2022 he'd have a record to be believed. He can say we have delivered £350mn more like I promised and next term we will [insert pledge here].
After Brexit, the country could do with a bit of peace and quiet, not a new revolution that upends the entire machinery of government.
https://twitter.com/DanielJHannan/status/956518842146148353
I once slept with my head under the pillow and woke up toothless. The thirty-two pound coins piled up beside me were scant consolation.
Moving on to the second point, how close will the final deal be to the clear position she has laid out as her goal? Well, as I said before, it's a negotiation, and we simply don't know what the final deal will be. There is not a single person on this earth who knows, that's the nature of a complex negotiation, especially when we are negotiating through Barnier and the Commission with 27 other countries. At the moment, I would say that it is extremely likely that we will get a comprehensive deal on goods. So the 'Canada' bit is, if not in the bag, at least the default worst-case outcome.
Will there be any 'Plus' or 'Plus Plus'? Hard to say, but I'm fairly optimistic. Our EU friends do seem to be waking up to the importance of the City to their economies. But neither I, nor Theresa May, nor anyone else, can provide perfect clarity. That's just the inevitable position when you enter a complex negotiation.
What's more, the lack of clarity is entirely on the EU side. What we want is clear. What they want isn't.
Lets not forget though that European businesses rely upon financing from London, cutting that off could result in catastrophe for Europe more than finance moving to Europe.
The disruption in cutting off services to and from the UK could cause European firms greater disruption than even the Credit Crunch of 2007/08 did.
Realism will ensure a deal is reached. How it is, is up for negotiations.