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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If the Sun’s Harry Cole is right there are signs that a move against TMay might be imminent
Tory backbench boss begs angry MPs not to call leadership contest https://t.co/0gHZHHYGbc pic.twitter.com/rqrwllpWFY
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Please not Boris.
Links to the two Betfair markets referenced by Mike in the header.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28051208/market?marketId=1.125589838
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28051208/market?marketId=1.132897849
2.24 now and after a tenner more it’ll be 1.74.
However there are two major factors that make me doubt his ability to be a good PM:
*) He has been in a position of power before as London mayor, and didn't do well. The Garden Bridge debacle in particular shows a very poor side to his character.
*) His personal life has been (ahem) interesting, and I am far from sure it shows characteristics that would befit a PM.
There’s only two candidates (JRM, BJ) priced under 10, and eight more priced under 30 - one of whom wouldn’t be eligible.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28051208/market?marketId=1.125574963
An affable buffoon works as a provincial mayor, doesn’t really work as foreign secretary and certainly wouldn’t work as prime minister. He’s clearly out of his depth in his current position.
Plenty more skeletons likely to come out too, If his own wife doesn’t trust him then why should the rest of us?
http://news.met.police.uk/news/animal-rights-protestors-sentenced-for-conspiracy-to-blackmail-291363
* Spelt American-ly, 'cause I'm in LA.
Meanwhile, May would be at a party with hundreds of people, loud music, and lots of lovely food. Then someone realises they're out of absinthe so, as leader, she's asked to go to the offy to get some. On the way out they pass her a handgun and place a target on her head, and once she's out they change all the locks. The party then continues.
Or, the letters have been trickling in for a while and she might have simply just reached the threshold of pissing off too many people.
This might not be unconnected to Boris's moves - the LoTO with portfolio - over recent weeks as well.
It'll happen to you too, eventually..
Party rules: http://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN01366/SN01366.pdf
It would be the stupidest political decision since Beckett and Field nominated Corbyn for the Labour leadership.
Therefore we must assume it is highly probable.
I think she would win a vote of confidence but it would be very damaging for her personally and the government.
The tag team of her and Hammond at the top of government is one of the least inspiring or dynamic I can think of. Worse than that, her total lack of warmth means she seemingly struggles to keep colleagues on side when she has no natural authority.
Whilst the country can hardly afford to change leadership if May keeps this up then there will quickly come a time when it can't afford not to.
But all of this assumes a basic level of political competence that Mrs May has yet to demonstrate at any point since her premiership started. Not for the fifth time there is a real risk that she will blunder into something because of basic incompetence.
"Whom the Gods would destroy, they first make mad" would seem to apply here.
Mind you, as the Davids have mentioned downthread, the Tories current algorithm appears to be 'Given a number of choices, pick the worst'. On that basis, they'll probably go for a VNC and hilarity will ensue.
I wonder about the edge cases: I assume that if someone is no longer an MP (e.g. through resignation, death or losing a seat at an election) then the letter is discarded. But I wonder what happens if an MP is suspended? Does the letter 'disappear' for the period of the resignation? Also, as the 1922 committee is of 'backbench' MPs (AIUI that means not ministers), does the letter 'disappear' if someone is promoted to the cabinet, and therefore is no longer in the 1922, and reappear if they leave cabinet? Or do the letters remain current?
(And that brings another issue: is the PM told who has sent in letters? Might (s)he promote someone who has written in against them?)
If he already has a lot, and just a further half-dozen would tip it, and they are holding off until the Government shows its hand in the next round of talks, then it could be.
If it's a sudden surge, then no.
But the time for this is Summer next year, not now.
https://twitter.com/sunpolitics/status/956422680328261632
Inhibit/halt/2nd ref on Brexit and Save the NHS would be enough to carry him over the line.
Despite the remarkable boycott by Robert Smithson the UK has more attendees than China and Germany put together. Not sure what that proves but we are second only to the States.
The NHS is a far better bet for him. However, he would probably need costed proposals this time and so far neither he nor any of his current shadow cabinet have shown the ability to come up with sensible figures.
It would therefore depend largely on who the Conservatives put up and what their manifesto said. But I don't think an election for Corbyn is a gimme even under these circumstances.
The thing I would bet on is record turnout.
The anarchist in me really shouldn't be allowed out alone though.
Nothing has changed.
Nothing has changed.
Suspended is the interesting one, as it could possibly lead to suspension of someone under false pretences, a planted story etc. The leadership is a party matter, so I’d be surprised if someone’s job in government or cabinet was a barrier to writing a letter (although a bit of a crappy thing to leave one there when you’ve just had a promotion). Leader I don’t think officially informed until the challenge is confirmed, but probably a lot of whispers using the chief whip as a go-between in the meantime.
Alternatively, the Conservative Party should outflank Corbyn on the left. We could be governed by an anarcho-syndicalist commune. (Although some might suggest - what's new?)
Of more interest is if he so close to the margin, that the 15% is reached accidentally, by an MP losing the whip or dropping down dead.
What larks, Pip!
Before that is madness.
The problem is partly caused by a stream of good news (or at least substantially less bad than feared news) on the economy in recent weeks, the latest of which was the remarkable increase in employment yesterday. An interest rate increase this year already looks more likely than a couple of weeks ago. I am not sure I see that changing in the near term. Its possible that some real instability in the government might reduce the upward pressure but it would not be a cost free option.
It would make sense to reset the count every 12 months to avoid the problem you describe.
When you think about it, Brady actually has quite a bit of power.
It is however fair to point out that Corbyn's successful evasion of this issue last year was one of the most impressive political gambits of recent times. It may have been more luck than skill, but it was still breathtaking.
The EU have said we need their permission to sign trade deals during the transition, not to negotiate them. We'll be a third country after all.
This says we'd then sign on the dotted line immediately after it ends. Which would be fine.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jan/24/beppe-grillo-steps-aside-from-italys-five-star-movement
Right now May, like any PM, has to balance the interests in the party. Boris had just led a successful referendum against the PM and the Chancellor. He had to be given a significant post. Would you rather he had been Chancellor?
Don’t let the door hit your arse on the way out.
Secondly, he won't be in hock to people like Hammond or Rudd - he could simply remove them if he needed to. May is weak and cannot remove a weak chancellor and a very pro remain Home Sec.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/will-someone-rid-us-of-this-appalling-pm-qflt6wtfq
Plus she’s lost the hardcore Brexiteers.
Cf JRM v David Davis yesterday.
The timing of this is bloody stupid. (I had a bet on her going in 2017).
Just on a matter of technicalites suppose there are 301 MPs and the 15% threshold is therefore 46 MPs. And 45 letters had been submitted. What would happen if one of the (non letter writing MPs) lost the whip/quit/died etc? Without any extra letters going in, the threshold would have been reached.