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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Punters have more confidence that Trump will survive but are less convinced that he’ll be re-elected
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If it looks like Trump is going to be out on his ear at the next presidential election in any case, it's not clear that it would be worth the Dems' while to get rid of him: They put a better GOP candidate in, and simultaneously rile up his base. Likewise any GOP senators who might otherwise be tempted to vote against Trump; Voting to impeach creates a permanent betrayal narrative in the Trumpist wing of their party that will never go away, and they spend the rest of their lives in legitimate fear of assassination. They might do that if they feel like there's a genuine risk to the republic, but they'd more likely calculate that he won't do much worse in the last year than he did in the first few.
If they were saving America from a full extra term of him then you could see the point, but ironically it feels like he's safer if there's not much danger of that happening.
But finding evidence of crimes and misdemeanors isn't the problem. The Trump-inclined part of the GOP base have already been fed a load of stuff about the investigation being part of a huge conspiracy, so regardless of what Mueller comes up with, they're going to think it's a partisan witchhunt. Ultimately you need a majority in the House, then two-thirds of the Senate. The Dems are going to have a hard time getting the latter on their own, because they'd need to gain close to 20 seats, and there are only 8 GOP Senators running.
At which point the question is simply, will a hypothetical Dem House vote to impeach, and will GOP moderates vote to convict. Which is basically a political question, and if half the GOP base is still with Trump, the answer is no.
Why would House Republicans want to throw this away? And for what? Pence might have his own ideas. It is said the GOP in the mid-1980s preferred to keep a deteriorating Reagan than Bush Sr.
The only reason to dump Trump is if he costs Republicans their seats and majority. Trump will continue to 2020. Beyond that, does he want to stand again? Is his heart in it and does he want to try and help Ivanka become America's first woman president?
Trump has delivered to his base. He has delivered bigly, as he would put it, on the economy. Unemployment down, growth up and going up further on the back of his tax reforms, money for infrastructure that will undoubtedly be spent in key states and tax cuts for all with the emphasis on the lower paid (even if the rich inevitably saved more in absolute terms).
In contrast, the chronic lack of leadership in the Democratic party has just resulted in the shutdown of the Federal Government only for them to realise it was their base that was being hurt and it really wasn't a good idea so they had to cave in with nothing of substance in return.
Most of the people who say Trump is not re-electable are those who were certain that he would not be elected in the first place. Being wrong about that has not shaken their certainty. I see less reason to believe them now than I did in 2016.
I can’t see the Democrats attempting a 2019 impeachment of Trump, it will just play into his hands that the Establishment is out to stop him MAGA and cement his intentions to run again in 2020. They know they don’t have the numbers in the Senate for conviction and government will do nothing else for months on end if impeachment proceeds.
The Dems are better off leaving him where he is and get themselves organised - have 4 or 5 candidates run (not 2 or 12, we’ve seen how that ends up) and work out policies that they can sell to middle America and the swing states. Talking about bathrooms and abortion isn’t going to get them any new voters where they need them, and the electoral college doesn’t reward massive majorities in CA and NY if they can’t carry FL, WI and OH.
It’s the economy, stupid. And Trump is winning the economy, bigly.
A fine morning for Boris to be out and about making sure he is not forgotten.
The form line through his recent win against Chung (in the QF on the other half of the draw) and defeating Kevin Anderson (finalist at US Open - hard courts) in the first round were useful indicators that Edmund ranking of around 50 was too low.
Nevertheless it's been a mighty impressive showing. If Edmund reaches the final he will break into the top twenty and become British number one.
America First tariffs on washing machines and solar panels from China and South Korea.
Its not just the tariffs, it make offshoring your manufacturing more hazardous than it was before. Free traders will be appalled. The rust bucket states of the US will be delighted.
In the end it will be a tactical decision by the Democrats. If Mueller unearths a credible financial trail (and I don't know what the odds on that really are, but almost certainly not zero), then there is nothing to be lost by so voting.
Edit - and if he can beat (presumably) Nadal, there is a fair case to be made he's tournament favourite. But that really would be an upset and a half.
https://youtu.be/B16lWZ_JPaQ
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/
Helping the rust belt economy does count as delivery of promises for some important swing voters, but on current trends it won't be nearly enough for re-eleciton.
Interesting piece meanwhile on Corbynites and the distinction between scepticism about capitalism and the absence of a fully-fledged alternative:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jan/23/davos-capitalism-corbynites
I think this is more of a second term issue (which for age reasons probably would be with a Corbyn successor). In 2022 the urgent leftish issues will be things like the NHS and benefits and there will be more than enough to do fixing those and establishing reasonable confidence that Labour won't blow the economy up. Long-term radical change from capitalism would take longer, if the will was there.
Meantime, the tariff will likely cost several tens of thousand jobs downstream.
https://www.solarpowerworldonline.com/2017/07/u-s-solar-panel-manufacturing-not-dead/
Though I guess Whirlpool will be quite pleased.
I'm not playing that game but others might wish to.
Oh, wait....
I suspect these ads from 2015 might become rather timely again:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xrqG6CbmZjw
I think it's option b but the deputation of Conservative MPs yesterday have been remarkably tight-lipped.
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/955466381268541440
A good opportunity for some new blood in Esther McVey to make her mark in a very difficult department, so every cloud...
Why it’ll be 50 years before a UK mainland party goes into Coalition with them again. I wouldn’t be too surprised to see Tory candidates in DUP seats, to be honest!
And if there is one thing that Trump is prone to, it is events.
For me the 2020 election is too far off for anything more than token bets. I have quite a bit of my stake money tied up in next leadership contests, that show no sign of resolution.
Boris is an egotistic buffoon, but right about the NHS (though characteristically over hyped). No elective surgery requiring GA for 6 weeks, our extremely good breast cancer unit is now a respiratory ward, and planning blight on any sort of capital project.
Money could be found if there was a will, but the lead times in terms of building and staff training are such that the rot cannot stop quickly. Across a wide variety of roles we simply cannot appoint or retain staff of the right calibre.
Surprised Edmund's got through to the semis, but good for him. I wonder what odds he was to win the quarters?
On-topic: Trump may not necessarily seek re-election.
The Democrats can win without the rust belt, if they flip North Carolina and Florida, but it's a narrow path to victory.
One of the main reasons that the tories suffered at last years election was the complete lack of a reason to vote 'for' them. When a party becomes about management, rather than changes, it's one of the major signs it's time is up.
And I’m not saying that politics isn’t a rough old trade!
What is clear is that he burden needs to fall more on those demographics affected, it’s politically impossible to increase working-age income taxes high enough to fund health and social care for the rapidly increasing numbers in retirement.
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2018/01/putting-monsterpaint-onjordan-peterson/550859/
Hammond smacked Boris down with consumate ease this morning
I echo some other posters today; given our deficit is still more than £30 billion p.a., what taxes are going to be raised in order to fund the NHS (in our time honoured tradition of just throwing money at the problem)?
Unusually, I also agree with Soubry. Johnson should be sacked.
From that perspective it makes sense (encumber the less valuable income stream). From a stakeholder perspective it’s outrageous
There does seem to be some sort of coordinated move. Boris is on manoeuvres as usual but at keast he understands that if they don't get a grip on the NHS as an issue, it'll sink them long tern
Land value tax, introduce overall limit for ISA at say 100k, slash pensions tax relief, raise corporation tax as Labour planned if not more, raise capital gains tax.
Obviously clamp down more on tax avoidance which should be a no brainier for all parties.
Internationally throw full weight behind going after tax havens including the British ones.
As I posted yesterday, to match Japan (#2 in the OECD), we'd need to give the NHS an additional ~£24 billion, or ~£22 billion if we want to match Germany.
We spend around £350 billion on pensions, health and welfare.
FWIW, I still expect May to see the year out. The Party is polling 40%, the local elections are likely to be OK outside London, and Brexit still needs managing - and taking another two months out would be an absurd indulgence and cause far more division than it would resolve.
Summer 2019.
I have no idea how an LVT would work. While I see some utility in it, it would be quite difficult politically, don't you think?
It's unpalatable, but in my view we're going to have to raise general taxation in some fashion, permed from income tax, NI or VAT. I do like the idea of taxing middle and high income pensioners more (and I say that as one of them!).
Like my first boss told me when I was 17: the more you earn, the more you'll need.
I reckon our NHS system is the best in the world but it is a victim of unreasonable public expectations and years of being a political football.
My local hospital gets 3% more NHS cash for a 64% increase in throughput in the last 8 years.
It now resorts to very dodgy accountancy to try to meet "control totals"
I hope Johnson gets the better of Hammond.