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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Surely the reason LAB’s not pulling away in the polls is that Corbyn’s out of line from his voters on Brexit
I am heartbroken to have decided to leave @UKLabour. I am bitterly disappointed Labour are not officially opposing the insanity of #Brexit. I cannot support a pro Brexit party. If we have a general election, I will vote for a #Remain candidate. #WATON #WeAreTheOppositionNow
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I saw Corbyn live on his summer marginals tour. He delivered his stump speech, finely polished by the general election campaign. I lost count of mentions of the NHS. I didn't hear a single mention of Brexit. It's peripheral to his vision and priorities, and far too complicated for him to get bogged down in.
I wish it was true, but until Labour starts tanking in the polls with councillors defecting over Brexit, I just don't see it.
If anything Brexit is (as it has always been) a Tory issue. It rates higher than every subject for members and voters in Tory ranks. It is the subject on everyone's minds and will stay that way until we've left in 2019.
Also, is the position itself possible? staying in the single market might be attractive to voters to start, but then the negatives would also be highlighted. It'sa fluid position in the eyes of voters.
I suppose there is the Lib Dem share to go at but that must be close to core at the moment. Likewise, there's a chance of taking some support from the SNP, though again, is Brexit really the deal-breaker there?
The problem is not Corbyn's EU policy; it's the rest of them.
Almost all governments maintain their popularity for several months after an election. In 2010 it was two years, in 1992 it was about seven months, ended by the omnishambles and Back Wednesday respectively.
Only once we get in 2019 will Labour's polling position come under too much scrutiny.
That of course does not prevent a future government from having a state owned railway operating company or a state owned electricity system. But it would need to be for franchises and contracts like everyone else and it must do it on no taxpayer subsidy (that is not made available to all).
Anyway, I don't see the point of discussing this any further with you given how EUfanatical you are.
FWIW I think the current Conservative administration is dire, May is a ditherer and her cabinet are yet to show signs of competence. However, the other lot are worse. Either incompetent, reckless or outright dangerous.
Given the general paucity of talent in the government at the moment combined with May's unpleasant authoritarian streak I could see myself abstaining (or even, shock horror, voting Lib Dem in protest, if they weren't so obsessed with Brexit) if Labour fielded a more moderate candidate.
But so long as Corbyn remains in place, or his successor looks likely to be equally as extreme, the Conservatives could put up literally any candidate regardless of experience or talent and I would still vote for them. It's not about Brexit for me. It's about a genuine fear of a far left, anti capitalist, anti semitic government of extremists doing untold damage to the country.
Labour are doing well to get to 40% in the polls. But there is a ceiling on the number of people willing to vote for socialism. It is a cliche to say that elections are won from the centre ground, particularly in these polarising times. But Corbyn is a marmite candidate. And simply put, not enough people love him to put him over the finishing line.
GE2017 was a "free hit" because Corbyn never looked like getting into power. But even the most remainiest of remain liberal Conservatives will end up voting in their economic self interest once the true cost of Labour's radical manifesto is made clear.
If Labour were to embrace the Single Market -and Freedom of Movement -then it would lose many working class votes.
No the reason why Labour is not pulling ahead is for old traditional pre Brexit reasons.
The ONLY way that Labour can pull further ahead is for them to take votes from the Tories, and the reason why it doesnt do so is because Corbyn and McDonnell are on the hard Marxist left. Corbyn cant win Middle England marginals voters.
I disagree. You are again presenting your own opinion as fact, your MO. *I think* Thornberry would be one of the few candidates to unify both wings of the party while luring soft-right Remain Tories on board.
HYUFD said:
Thornberry would fail to win over virtually any of the current Tory voters who voted for Blair then switched to Cameron and stuck with May Labour need for a majority, nor would she inspire left-wing voter turnout behind Labour as much as Corbyn while she also has less appeal to the white working class than Corbyn does, see her St George's flag comments.
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HYUFD makes me LOL, the way he presents his own opinion as fact, every time. What St George's flag comments? She made no comment. And, in any case, who would want to live next to house covered top to tail in England flags? So many hypocrites out there attacking Thornberry while secretly thinking "that bloke is a mug". Hypocrites!!
Scotland is a greatly valued part of our United Kingdom and its contribution to the UK is immense – economically, socially, and culturally.
And Robert Burns is a great example of that, as one of our finest poets, famous world-wide.
I’m very much looking forward to this evening and the chance to celebrate a great poet, a great nation and an enduring Union.
"Scotland is a greatly valued part of our United Kingdom" sounds very patronising, reminiscent of a prep-school master saying a pupil is a greatly-valued member of the 2nd XI.
https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/955457066885439489
It's like all the celebrities who said they would leave for Canada if Trump was elected. As the Guardian reported today (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jan/22/move-to-canada-celebrities-donald-trump) they remained in the US.
You can make headlines with an empty threat. The celebrities did this in the US, and Mike (in a much smaller way) did in his posting. However, if the threat is implausible, it has little value.
Certainly not Great Uncle Vince and the Invisible Democrats.
Though there is a real lack of talent in their small band of MPs.
Ian Young
@youngian67
Replying to @MichaelLCrick
So you can change your mind in UKIP when a democratic vote turns out to be a terrible choice in reality
I disagree with OGH: it is logical for the most unreconciled Remainers to hope that Labour, the main party whose base is most sympathetic to them, returns to power and to hope that the leadership is then dragged EUwards in office.
Company that makes military ejector seats admits health and safety breach for death of Red Arrows pilot in ground accident in 2011.
The poor f***er got thrown 200’ into the air when his bang seat went off as he sat in it.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/01/22/ejector-seat-maker-admits-health-safety-breach-death-red-arrows/
Posted without comment just despair
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/01/22/iranian-embassy-hero-refused-council-flat-attacks-decision-give/
Everything that Corbyn has done since the election shows that he has no intention of staying in the Single Market or Customs Union. I do not see on what basis people think that he will be dragged EUwards were he in office.
Now they can campaign for a second vote, or rejoining or whatever, it's a free country, but Vince and Clegg et al do rather remind me of Jesuits wandering the shires of Elizabethan England clutching their rosaries bewailing the loss of the old religion. Old Queen Bess Soft Brexited by solidifying the C of E as a just about Protestant Church but with just enough smells and bells to keep the old timers on board. I'm sure many an ex Catholic quietly made their peace rather than holding out and ending up in the Tower (in those days). Vince might learn a thing from that.
(Which seems an entirely possible outcome.)
Indeed, it's not impossible that Corbyn could take the UK *further* out of the EU, in order to implement policies that discriminate in favour of British firms, if May ends up being forced into a very soft Brexit by the logic of the Irish border.
There is a related article about Haringey and Labour in yesterday's Sunday Times. Some of the comments reported there are worrying in their implications.
Or, as @Anazina notes, as closed.
And how likely it was to rile the average voter.
Unless they intend getting rid of Northern Ireland altogether, against the consent of its people. Which is not something the Irish republic would want.
They have not so far driven their Remain supporters to the Lib Dems by voting for Article 50 for example.
The Remain supporters either don't care enough about Brexit to worry or have not yet understood Labour's position.
I suspect most 'remainers' don't care much about Brexit or at least are not as passionate as 'leavers'.
The real question will be whether the membership agitates for 'Rejoin' once we've left - that would be dangerous as it's too easy to attack that it would mean Euro, Schengen, Euro army etc. Nonsense, but the sort of nonsense that's already won one referendum. My view would be that living with soft Brexit and moving to priorities of housing, health environment and education would be the smarter move at that point.
Shame they don’t really understand overseas subscriptions and the various payment methods that the rest of the world uses.
May is completely incompetent. Whatever she touches turns to dust. Even Corbyn is not as useless as May.
A Brexit delivered by Kier Starmer looks much more attractive than a Brexit delivered by BoZo and chums.
Brenda, quoted by the Daily Mail in April 2017, on the General Election. There is too much patronising commentary on here as to how much "normal" people attend to the minutiae of politics, but if that was the reaction to having another GE in 2017 after 2015, despite the many and obvious changes in the interim (Brexit, Camexit), who really thinks that the public regards Brexit as a live, revisitable issue? It is dead, nailed to its perch, defunct, receipted and filed. In GE 17 the electorate in fact gave a very different answer to their previous one, so perhaps they subconsciously wanted one all along, but the difference is the heavy lifting required to get to where you ask the question; it's not a one batty woman on a walking holiday decision.
For the rest of us, it is one issue, but our political ideology - be it Socialism, Liberalism, Conservatism or whatever - is over-riding and determines where we will cast our ballots. If Labour advocated Remain or Rejoin, that wouldn't turn me away from Labour. I am not defined by my position on the UK's membership of the EU.
Surely not with Ukip or the Tories, by definition. The LD vote isn't any higher now than in 2011-17, so we can rule that out. The other parties are so small that it makes little difference if you add a few of their voters into the Lab column.
I think Lab at 40-ish % is at something of a ceiling - not sure where the absent Remainers are?!?
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/3cf5b170-fe19-11e7-ba61-5366488da64d
You'll only get to see the title until you subscribe though.
I spotted one solitary 'Labour Remain' chap leafleting in my local high street. Sat in a nearby coffee shop I saw him get short shrift from pretty much everyone.
What rank would Corbyn be? I suspect Corporal.
But army corporals can be dangerous in politics, or at least German ones can be.
And by posters, I mean pieces of paper, not williamglenns.
Now, for some people, their sexuality is utterly core to their identity and this 'the' prism through which they see the world and their politics.
For others, it's a part of their identity sure, but they're not defined by it, and other things are just as, if not more important.
And let's not even get into the fact that Brexit is vastly overestimated as an issue of electoral salience by the political bubble. As others have noted, the NHS, housing, education etc are much bigger to the average Joe and Julie.
The real way in which Labour can open up a big polling lead is by winning over Tory voters who aren't completely obsessed with Brexit and who are primarily concerned with the bread and butter issues mentioned above (which is actually the vast majority of them, again contrary to the general view of the political bubble).
And it's quite fun, best form of defence is attack stuff. He is pretty much proposing to sack the NEC.