politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Labour’s YouGov lead down to 8pc – but it is too early to say that it’s Philpott, welfare, Mrs Thatcher or just normal margin of error
Today’s YouGov daily poll has CON 33%: LAB 41%: LD 10%: Ukip 10%. So the numbers are almost back to where they were in the first survey after the Easter break – 33/41/9/10.
Read the full story here
Comments
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/margaret-thatcher/9981256/Anne-Scargill-Thatcher-was-an-evil-woman.html
Approval: -30 (+3).
Which of the following do you think are the
most important issues facing the country at this
time? Please tick up to three:
Economy: 77(0)
Immigration: 55 (+4)
Health : 31 (-3)
Europe: 21 (+4)
And which of the following do you think are the
most important issues facing you and your
family? Please tick up to three
Economy: 64(-2)
Health: 34 (-1)
Pensions: 30 (-2)
Tax: 29 (+2)
Immigration: 19 (+4)
Scotland VI looks atypical:
Cons: 14; LAB: 35; LD: 24; SNP 17; UKIP: 9
Viewers hit out at lengthy coverage of poll tax and miners' strike after Baroness Thatcher's death
Viewers complain bulletins gave too great an emphasis to critics
Twitter users accuse BBC of 'shameless' bias against the former PM
One viewer said: 'You name the socialist, they've interviewed them'
Another said the coverage was 'an absolute Left-wing biased disgrace'
The BBC was accused of 'disgraceful' bias yesterday over its coverage of Baroness Thatcher's death.
Angry viewers complained its news bulletins gave too great an emphasis to her critics and to controversies such as the poll tax and the miners' strike.
Twitter users accused the BBC of 'shameless' bias against the former Prime Minister. The broadcaster also faced criticism because newsreaders did not wear black ties following the announcement of her death.
During her 11 years as Prime Minister, Lady Thatcher made clear her dislike of those running the BBC and complained about its 'Left-wing' bias.
In the hours following the announcement of her death, those feelings were echoed by many.
EF, London, declared: 'Shameless Marxist BBC, Ken Livingstone. Tony Benn. You name the socialist, they've interviewed them to try and ruin the memory of this great lady.'
Paul Wells said: 'The BBC 10 o'clock news coverage of Baroness Thatcher's death is an absolute Left-wing biased disgrace . . . I want a TV licence refund now!'
'Baroness Thatcher a great leader of 20th Century, BBC brings on the haters and emphasises insignificant disturbances. Angry about the bias,' tweeted Bazee@Bazee.
Ken Scott claimed: 'BBC News showing their left-wing credentials by dragging a load of Thatcher haters out for interview. All of them waste-of-time has-beens!'
Chris Latimer tweeted: 'I am beginning to see the point of view of those who think the #bbc is Left-wing. Their coverage of Thatcher's death has been disgraceful.'
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2306564/Margaret-Thatcher-Public-anger-BBC-bias-Viewers-hit-lengthy-coverage-poll-tax-miners-strike.html#ixzz2Q2J8umh9
Definitely not a case post hoc ergo propter hoc.
My own theory on this one is that the chances are that it's less anything going right for the Tories and more an absence of things going wrong - a succession of which had previously depressed their share and increased Labour's lead.
Despite the ramping by some (mainly on the left), the only thing that's going to shift the polling is the economy (or perceptions of economic competence, cf last year's budget) - welfare, Europe et al are things "not to cock up" but will not shift VI.
If it shows we're in a triple dip that will move VI and the economic lead the Tories have with some pollsters.
But clearly a precedent is being set here. When Blair and Brown get the same treatment - despite being equally as divisive as Mrs T - no-one will be able to complain.
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/4880665/margaret-thatcher-best-pm-ahead-of-churchill.html
He achieved nothing not even a GE win.
A minor bit part actor in a bad bad film.
Blair could also expect one due to his long spell as PM and his work on the Northern Ireland peace process as well
That said, I agree that Brown won't get one - he was not in the job long enough. But Blair is another matter altogether.
Given their shared electoral success, Blair would be a potential candidate - but I doubt it will happen - unless a newly democratic Middle East has risen from the adventures in Iraq. Unlike Thatcher and Eastern Europe.....
Typical Mail. Fauxoutrage and no meaningful stats on how many objected to the coverage.
But when Blair does eventually pass on he will only be remembered for being in the right place at the right time, not challenging Thatcher's consensus, and not having the balls to tell Brown where to get off.
And any PM in power over the past 40 years would have done something about Northern Ireland.
"Lady Thatcher debate a battle over Britain's present and future
Make no mistake, the politicised contest about how to remember the former prime minister is not about the past"
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/apr/09/lady-thatcher-britain-present-future
I assume he divorced the first one before he married the second.
Instead, It's time to toss the dice!
http://www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/news/indepth/margaret_thatcher/10342729.Easington_s_former_miners_to_party_as_Margaret_Thatcher_is_buried/
Easington Colliery closed in 1993.....
12 years on, they were still only "allegations" in the Guardian:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2006/oct/28/bae.whitehall
Smear the mother by proxy.....nice.....
I'm constantly surprised by how graceless some can be. It has the reek of Westboro Baptists to protest at a funeral.
Over on pb2, Messrs Nigel and Putney have some interesting early thoughts on possible bets for China:
http://politicalbetting.blogspot.co.uk/2013/04/china-early-discussion.html
It no doubt reflects the Treasury's desperate need for cash but we have never had a government which was so focussed on ensuring that the rich pay their share and that tax evasion and even tax avoidance become ever more difficult.
Of course this does not fit the narrative of tories helping out their posh friends so it gets little attention but George is not only building up a serious body of work here but showing up the incompetence and indifference of the last government to, you know, running the country or doing anything other than spending it.
I am sure Margaret would approve. Her strong sense of morals and her willingness to defend them is one of many things missing from today's politics.
"I am sure Margaret would approve. Her strong sense of morals and her willingness to defend them is one of many things missing from today's politics."
There was an interesting comment in the DT re Osborne's last Budget being Thatcherite in nature - but because the view of what she stood for has been so warped, this was missed.
It's been too long since I read her diaries/view on monetarism etc for me to comment - perhaps others who are scholars of this can?
Thatcherism had very strong pillars but it was always a lot more pragmatic in application than either those who praise her or those who condemn her were willing to admit.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/apr/09/slovenia-eurozone-bailout-rumours
O/t the evens offered on Tiger to finish in the top 5 at the masters is unbelievable - am in bawdeep.
(betfair)
'Presumably Mrs T is getting the full monty because she was a long-serving PM. Up until now, these types of funerals have not been held for divisive political figures,'
And Blair wasn't a divisive political figure?
'The largest demonstration organised by the Coalition was against the imminent invasion of Iraq on 15 February 2003, claimed to be the largest demonstration in Britain with estimates of attendance ranging between 750,000 and 2,000,000 people'
LADY Thatcher is voted Margaret the Great today in an exclusive Sun poll.
More than a quarter of all those surveyed hailed her as Britain’s most popular PM since World War Two. An overwhelming 28 per cent of people interviewed opted for Maggie as “the greatest” out of 13 Prime Ministers we have had since 1945.
She even eclipsed legendary Sir Winston Churchill, who came second in the poll. Churchill, who as well as being Britain’s wartime leader was also PM from 1951-55, won 24 per cent of support.
Third was Tony Blair on ten per cent — but current PM David Cameron scored zero along with 1970s Tory leader Edward Heath.
Asked how they rated Lady T’s performance from 1979 to 1990, 52 per cent of all those questioned felt she was “great” or “good” — compared to 30 per cent who said she was “poor” or “terrible”.
It shows Maggie has comfortably more supporters than detractors across the social classes, in every age group and in every region of England and Wales.
Only in Scotland do more think she was a bad Premier — by 44 per cent to 33.
Read more: http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/4880665/margaret-thatcher-best-pm-ahead-of-churchill.html#ixzz2Q2jnCqrS
More of a recognition poll that. I wonder if it affected the voting intention this morning.
Also, the idea football should hold a minute silence this weekend for someone who eyed it with suspicion is laughable.
It would not be respected at any ground, so let's not subject ourselves to such unedifying spectacles to please the whims of egotistical rich men. Whelan and Madejski need to wind their necks in.
Regardless of deeply felt divisions, at Tony Blairs last PMQS Tory MPs demonstrated respect and civility. We gave him a standing ovation.
I'm not in favour of quasi-state funerals for politicians generally. And Parliament's recall is excessive: why couldn't time have been set aside when Parliament resumed sitting next week? It's not as if there is some sort of emergency or reason why it has to be today as opposed to next week.
It all feels a bit too hubristic to me. She was a political phenomenon: her legacy is mixed and will be argued about for years but she was a political servant not some totem of the state we have to worship.
Still since the ceremony is happening let's hope the proper decencies are observed.
Poor Francois hasn't time to mess about with trivia like the economy, he's too busy sorting out which of his cabinet have been stashing their money in tax havens.
" For much of her time in Downing Street, Lady Thatcher was considered a capable leader by a significant proportion of voters, according to three decades of polling by Ipsos Mori.
In April 1979, shortly before the General Election which swept her to power, some 26 per cent of voters said, when asked to choose from a list of descriptors, that Lady Thatcher was a capable leader.
That had risen to 44 per cent by May 1982, after the British task force had been sent to the South Atlantic to retake the Falkland Islands. By May 1983, after the war was won and a month before her second General Election, she was seen as capable by 62 per cent of the population.
By May 1987, shortly before her third general election and following the deregulation of the City and the privatisation of a number of nationalised industries, her capability ratings rose again to 59 per cent.
On leaving office, her capability ratings were 39 per cent. That would be significantly higher than those enjoyed by her successors..." http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/margaret-thatcher/9981512/Polling-Margaret-Thatcher-most-capable-of-Tory-leaders.html
http://blogs.channel4.com/factcheck/factcheck-the-thatcher-myths/13236
*tears of laughter etc*
This would be the heir to Blair Cammie who led the tribute, ovation and gushing praise.
I wonder why?
Still, at least we might get to hear more hilariously inept second rate Blair impersonations from Cammie today with the peoples prime minister/patriot princess or whatever else his incompetent spinners dream up.
The outrage tourists have days more pathetic whining to get out of their system yet. Best to let them foam at the mouth, they'll calm down eventually. ;^)
Has there been many references to the Brighton bombing? I've not heard anything but have heard much on miners, unemployment, Billy Bragg/Tony Benn/Ken Livingstone et al... I'd never guess she was voted in with large majorities 3x.
If anything it's the Labour poll that's soft, as soon as Ed has to appear before the wider public and talk about policy then people will wise up.
"The football ID card scheme she was going to introduce until Hillsbrough stopped her in her tracks would have killed football. She was not a fan, to say the least."
TBF, football in the 80s was appalling in many places - fans acted like animals and were treated like them by the police.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2306651/Scotland-expects-Bank-England-bail-split-UK.html?ito=feeds-newsxml
Yes, I rather thought it might be. You not being a stranger to incompetent attempts at public relations and spin.
Are you sure it isn't the BBC's fault?
LOL
"For young Europeans, it must be difficult to imagine the routine deprivation that existed behind the Iron Curtain when Margaret Thatcher came to power. As a refugee in London during the Eighties, I had to smuggle necessities to my family in Poland: toothpaste, shampoo, washing powder and, hidden in the parcels, miniature editions of books that were banned there. Occasionally, these were found and confiscated – including, in 1984, a copy of Nineteen Eighty-Four.
Mrs Thatcher’s role in changing all this cannot be overstated. For those behind the Iron Curtain, she was a member of the anti-communist “Holy Trinity” – consisting of John Paul II, Ronald Reagan and herself – who altered the fate of the West, and consequently the fate of those outside it.
She did in the West what Solidarity did in the East. Solidarity was a workers’ movement against the communist state, which exposed the illegitimacy of the Communist Party’s claim to represent the working class. Mrs Thatcher similarly turned the tide: until she entered the fray, it was assumed that capitalism was ultimately going to converge with communism – and that a bigger and bigger role for the state was inevitable. She put an end to that. By rejuvenating Britain, she made the strongest possible case against the model of the command economy in both its hard and soft forms..." http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/margaret-thatcher/9982098/Margaret-Thatcher-A-Cold-War-angel-and-a-democratic-miracle.html says Poland's Foreign Min.
The club have now said they were proposing to have a minute's silence for the 24th Hillsborough anniversary anyway (though there was no mention of this previously). Which raises the possibility of it being combined.
Have to say, the thought of Liverpool fans celebrating Thatcher's death at our ground (between their many goals) as their forums suggest they will, doesn't fill me with anticipation for afternoon.
However, some are refusing to do so. John Healey is not taking part to "a platform for his (DC) Party’s ideology not just eulogy". The updated tribute by Cameron "is partisan, divisive and diminishes the Prime Minister’s Office" according to him.
John Mann must go to the dentist today. Ronnie Campbell won't pay tribute to "her legacy here was the destruction of thousands of jobs”.
David Winnick argues it would be hypocrital not to speak against her record today (EdM warned MPs to be respectful today).
"Entirely fanciful". That'll be a "yes" then...
Funny how the Scottish Green Party or PanelBase have still not published the "Yes/No" split on independence.
I wonder why?
While I don't have strong views on the Parliamentary session or the style of the funeral, I think we need to have some consistent convention on former PMs that doesn't involve the politicians of the day making a value judgment about them - it's going to be undignified if we squabble over each one in turn. The longer the length of service the more elaborate the commemoration seems a reasonable convention.
Overseas aid probably isn't directly comparable, because that's about the UK and Everywhere Else, whereas welfare here is about British benefits for British temporarily unemployed/ill and disabled/scrounger/slackers.
Clearly the rampaging LibDem polling figure in Scotland is due to recent appearances of Viscount Thurso on the wireless. Listeners are able to envisage the dramatic improvements to their lives emboldened as they would be by the presence of bearded Scottish nobles !!
Fine pie production might also see a balance of payment uplift.
Huzzah for the Scots aristocracy !!
It's the Opposition Front Bench, scared of their own shadow, and the "I'd rather be tortured" stay away MPs who look foolish.
*chortle*