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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Alastair Meeks recommends his approach to baldness as Britain’s best post-Brexit strategy
The 1970s were my best decade for hair production. My parents have pictures of me at a young age in lurid paisley colours with an Osmond-like hair helmet. Those pictures are safely under lock and key.
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HARMED FORCES
Former Armed Forces minister exposes shocking military cuts and issues dire warning on UK’s fading power
The senior Tory has spoken out for the first time since stepping down because 'enough was enough'
THE former Armed Forces minister lifts the lid on shocking military shortfalls on operations - as he issues a dire warning about Britain’s fading prowess.
Sir Mike Penning has told The Sun that the UK is on the verge of “no longer being taken seriously” around the globe because defence has been cut “to the bone”.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/5357033/former-armed-forces-minister-exposes-shocking-military-cuts-and-issues-urgent-warning-about-uks-fading-power/
Or have I misinterpreted the thread? There again it is equally as plausible as spending our savings on the NHS!
However, the chance of May getting ahead of anything, rather than reacting long after the sensible option is obvious to the meanest intellect, is minimal.
However it was my understanding that we haven't been spending a disproportionately large amount of GDP on defence. We've been spending "just" the NATO 2% amount which all NATO nations are supposed to spend.
If we're going to cut below that then we won't just be leaving the EU but driving a stake through the heart of NATO.
I am becoming convinced that Biden will run, and has a good chance of securing the nomination.
This encouraged me to put a few quid on today:
https://www.politico.com/story/2018/01/17/oprah-winfrey-2020-poll-343096?lo=ap_d1
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/nov/24/ministry-of-defence-in-line-for-steep-cuts-in-2018
However, I'm not sure that Alastair's analysis is correct. The UK spends more than some comparable countries on defence, but not outlandishly more. You have to be a bit careful making comparisons because it depends what you include, but according to the Stockholm International Peace Research figures we spend 1.9% of GDP on defence, compared with France's 2.3%, Australia's 2.0%, and Italy's 1.5%.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_military_expenditures
“ and decided that they would nevertheless turn their backs on deeper levels of international co-operation.“
Maybe NATO has had its day but it needs to be part of the discussion if we're going to seriously consider this.
Seems like the bitcoin bubble is finally bursting
As always, an interesting thread from Antifrank with which it's hard to disagree. One could argue the French still think they have a role to play in parts of Africa and have their own force de frappe so are they managing the transition any better ?
One could look at the Chinese example where they have made huge investments in Africa and provided infrastructural links primarily, one supposes, for the transportation of raw materials and they've done this without the same military power projection (though the overthrow of Mugabe perhaps suggests that might be changing).
We thought we were still an Imperial power until Suez - we then hitched ourselves to Europe for 60 years but that is now over. I'm far from clear many people have thought about our place in the post-EU world. One possibility is we will move ever closer to America but America has changed too and may not be as welcoming as it once was.
Even if we were to concentrate solely on defending Europe's frontiers, we'd still be spending about the same amount, just differently. Instead of aircraft carriers and nuclear weapons, we'd be spending the money on infantry, tanks, destroyers, and aircraft.
Alistair is broadly correct in that our defence strategy is incoherent and riven by inter-service rivalries that distort our procurement processes and damage what capabilities we do have.
But I don't think that is anything new. We have in fact cut our defence commitments throughout my lifetime to a point where our current commitments are trivial compared with what we used to have. When I was a child I spent 2 years in Singapore. We had several regiments there including a regiment of Ghurkhas in our pay and significant naval assets. We had military bases in Hong Kong and several other places in the Far East. All long gone.
When I was slightly older in the 1970s I lived in Germany. The BAOR (British Army on the Rhine) was still a formidable force in the early 70s with several regiments of heavy tanks, heavy artillery, infantry and RAF back up. The base I was staying in, in Fallingbostel alone had a heavy tank regiment, a light tank regiment, a REME regiment and an infantry regiment. All gone. Now we would honestly struggle to keep more than about 40 tanks in the field for a month, as we did during the first Gulf war.
During all of that period we kept significant number of destroyers and frigates along with submarines in the Atlantic with a view to keeping the sea lanes open. Again pretty much all gone with a handful of ships remaining.
So to pretend that our defence commitments are exceptional or delusional and that we have failed to recognise our diminished role is a straw man. There may be further steps to take. Do we need Trident submarines or could that money be better spent on tactical forces we might actually use? Are we really likely to fight major tank battles in the near future? But this is not new, let alone a consequence of Brexit. It has been an ongoing pattern since WW2.
The curious thing is Meeks believes that is the dark forces of Leaver-stan that want to meddle in other countries ("Weirder Leavers", Colonel Blimps as he has referred to them in recent posts.)
I could have sworn that the Meddler-in-Chief was Mr Remainer, Tony Blair. The great Bomber of Serbia, the Invader of Sierra Leone, the Hero of the Iraq War, the Pacifier of Afghanistan, the Prince of Remain-ia
Meeks might like to ponder whether Blair's disastrous foreign policy is one of the reasons why we are leaving.
As in Foreign Policy so in Europe, if we are doing the opposite of what Blair wants, we are in the right place.
Maybe it is time to give up on NATO but it has to be part of the conversation if we're going to go down that route.
No Iraq, No Brexit.
No one sensible wants the EU to fail. I'd argue that with the UK out of the way, the EZ can put its house in order and bring other member states inside (iirc only the UK and Denmark have formal opt-outs, the rest are just playing shenanigans with the convergence criteria).
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/apr/19/brexit-could-spark-democratic-liberation-of-continent-says-gove
A British exit from the European Union could spark “the democratic liberation of a whole continent”, as other member countries follow Britain’s example and throw off the shackles of Brussels, the justice secretary, Michael Gove, has argued.
He compared the EU, with what he called its “mock parliament”, to sprawling and ultimately unsustainable regimes throughout history, from the Ottoman empire to tsarist Russia; and claimed that by leaving, Britain would force the EU to reinvent itself.
The twist is that it was by airmail from South Africa, to my work address. Anyone else experienced this?
Are you proposing that the EU should compel Sweden to join the Euro against their wishes?
(ITYM "join the Euro" BTW)
No I don't think they can but John_M seems to be suggesting they should. Its not clear though.
Leaving NATO would be daft but we might as well play the game as others do.
First time was from Nigeria and I can't remember the exact year, but soon after I started work so I would estimate circa 1976 - those days it was a meagre 5 million (I think) to split.
Second time earlier this year, but I can't remember the country of origin.
A client told me he'd been offered £3.5m for his lease of a barely-profitable pub in central London. I thought this was just on a par with one of those letters from Nigeria. But, it turned out the freeholder wanted to redevelop the building, and had bought out all the intermediate tenants, or waited for their leases to end. My client was the only tenant left, with 10 years left to run on his lease, so he was able to name his price.
You have outdone yourself. Wit, verve and argument all blended together. Marvellous!
Jean Monnet was right. We paid the price of victory after 1945 by thinking that things could remain the same. We wasted billions on idiocies like 4 different strategic jet bombers and endless varieties of other aircraft with little thought of export potential.
The MOD needs radical reform. If I were Gavin Williamson I would do the following:
1) Take an axe to the senior ranks of all 3 services.
2) Cut the full-time army back to 20,000. Aim to have 80,000 reservists.
3) Scrap all army tanks.
4) Strip the RAF of all responsibilities except air defence. Give transport to the army and maritime patrol to the Navy.
5) Explicitly recognise the Navy as the senior branch of the Armed Forces. The chief of the General Staff should always be an admiral.
6) Ensure that the aircraft carriers have proper air groups. Other navies can provide escorts in any likely war scenario.
https://nwhyte.livejournal.com/2949414.html
As for the politics in this piece - I broadly agree though I'd go much further in terms of cutting military and weapons spending to pretty much zero (though I accept I'm a total outlier on this issue and it'll not happen).
We look back and add up the human cost of Iraq and Afghanistan but I would love to know how many billions we spent on those wars with no benefit to people in this country at all.
I do wonder if the BBC is a little bit to blame as they are very good at going to all the world's trouble spots and then provoking a bout of "something must be done-itis" amongst our virtue signalling politicians.
I suppose if Corbyn gets in at least we won't get dragged into any more overseas adventures.
In the same vein, we should also cut back on International aid to a similar level that France and Germany spend. I hear politicians saying they want us to be an aid superpower but it's not their bloody money.
The sum of our foreign policy is that we have had countless military adventures and thrown cash around with very little benefit to the ordinary citizen. We have high taxes, struggling public services AND a still substantial defecit. We could do with taking a step back from the world stage and getting our own affairs in order for a decade.
I wondered about Phil Murphy. He's just got his feet under the desk in New Jersey so it is early days but he has a background that could make him a credible candidate by 2020. Has a bit of a chipmunk look though:https://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phil_Murphy
You may have the wrong Chelsea.
In fact, Alastair's thinking as to overseas commitments is back-to-front. Britain developed overseas military commitments in the first place for that same commercial imperative; even when it did start empire-building for the sake of it, it was as much to deny the land to rivals.
As I mentioned in a thread a few weeks ago, there's a reason why China is building naval bases in Africa.
He has thrived on his own skills and ingenuity - which is what Britain must do once we adopt the more aerodynamic hairless pate of Brexit.
Agree entirely.
Are you proposing the EU compels Sweden to join the Euro and ERM II against their wishes?
So far I have experienced the weird sensation of wind blowing my hair, much more usage of shampoo, and a look that probably scares away half the village (more than usual, that is).
I'm not particularly enjoying it. My hand's itching for the hair clippers ...
A convicted felon, a traitor to his/her country. Loads of votes in California, not so many elsewhere...
Yeah, I didn't actually say that. I said the same as you. Something went wrong with the editing.
And its happened again!
Germany does export a great deal more goods than us with a smaller navy. It also lost two world wars, in no small part because of its failure to command the oceans.
it's an open secret among naval officers the world over that in any full-scale conflict, everyone's ships would be on the sea floor within a few days. Apparently the USN won't play war games with the other services any more because that always happens.
I don't think the EU has the power to compel any country to join the Euro. I think there needs to be carrot, rather than stick. But the Euro does need to become a 'proper' currency.
As for the CANZUK union the division is less clear cut, Australia and Canada have a higher GDP per capita than the UK but the UK has a higher GDP per capita than New Zealand
That is simple arithmetic.
If you are correct, then that does not bode well for the new boudaries being passed.
Nope. It acts like a moderate global power, which it is, and sometimes overreaches, which we certainly not alone in doing. Lazy people, however, love to pretend that we continue to behave as if we were still the sole global superpower.
And the occasional tub thumping of politicians or jingoist media don't undermine that most people know we are not a superpower, just a power, and our actions reflect that, by and large.