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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Seat projection from today’s ICM poll has CON ahead on MPs eve

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    AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    welshowl said:

    Anazina said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Conservatism fought back.

    Conservatism chose the wrong battle because Blair got under its skin too much and made it forget what it really believed in.
    Conservatives realised there were more important priorities than materialism.
    Too much of europhilia was based around an embarrassment to be British for it ever to appeal to Conservatives.
    A Europhilia based around pride in being English would be a different ballgame.
    The UK is arguably an outdated concept, thanks to a permanent large bloc for independence in Scotland, and increasing geopolitical pressure to unite Ireland. Independence for the four nations within the EU might make sense.
    Poor old Wales. Always forgotten eh? Voted for Brexit and I think about 3% recently wanted independence. So that’s not going to work well in your scenario is it really?
    It is a matter of making the case and thinking imaginatively about the future – I am just speculating as my OP makes clear.
  • Options
    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460
    John_M said:

    welshowl said:

    Anazina said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Conservatism fought back.

    Conservatism chose the wrong battle because Blair got under its skin too much and made it forget what it really believed in.
    Conservatives realised there were more important priorities than materialism.
    Too much of europhilia was based around an embarrassment to be British for it ever to appeal to Conservatives.
    A Europhilia based around pride in being English would be a different ballgame.
    The UK is arguably an outdated concept, thanks to a permanent large bloc for independence in Scotland, and increasing geopolitical pressure to unite Ireland. Independence for the four nations within the EU might make sense.
    Poor old Wales. Always forgotten eh? Voted for Brexit and I think about 3% recently wanted independence. So that’s not going to work well in your scenario is it really?
    We can always force Wales to be independent, or flog it off to the Qataris. We have to think outside the box here. We're missing a great opportunity to subsidise the balkans ad nauseam.
    Lol!
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,067
    edited January 2018
    welshowl said:

    Anazina said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Conservatism fought back.

    Conservatism chose the wrong battle because Blair got under its skin too much and made it forget what it really believed in.
    Conservatives realised there were more important priorities than materialism.
    Too much of europhilia was based around an embarrassment to be British for it ever to appeal to Conservatives.
    A Europhilia based around pride in being English would be a different ballgame.
    The UK is arguably an outdated concept, thanks to a permanent large bloc for independence in Scotland, and increasing geopolitical pressure to unite Ireland. Independence for the four nations within the EU might make sense.
    Poor old Wales. Always forgotten eh? Voted for Brexit and I think about 3% recently wanted independence. So that’s not going to work well in your scenario is it really?
    Let's just go back to the borders of 1707 then.
  • Options
    Anazina said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Conservatism fought back.

    Conservatism chose the wrong battle because Blair got under its skin too much and made it forget what it really believed in.
    Conservatives realised there were more important priorities than materialism.
    Too much of europhilia was based around an embarrassment to be British for it ever to appeal to Conservatives.
    A Europhilia based around pride in being English would be a different ballgame.
    The UK is arguably an outdated concept, thanks to a permanent large bloc for independence in Scotland, and increasing geopolitical pressure to unite Ireland. Independence for the four nations within the EU might make sense.
    Scotland is moving to parties endorsing the Union and the argument for Independence will all but disappear at the next Holyrood elections, Wales is a million miles from even thinking about Independence with Plaid Cymru a side show, and as for Northern Ireland it would be an economic disaster for them.

    There are some who are actively hoping the UK will break up over Brexit but it will not, but more powers are likely to be devolved
  • Options
    John_M said:

    welshowl said:

    Anazina said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Conservatism fought back.

    Conservatism chose the wrong battle because Blair got under its skin too much and made it forget what it really believed in.
    Conservatives realised there were more important priorities than materialism.
    Too much of europhilia was based around an embarrassment to be British for it ever to appeal to Conservatives.
    A Europhilia based around pride in being English would be a different ballgame.
    The UK is arguably an outdated concept, thanks to a permanent large bloc for independence in Scotland, and increasing geopolitical pressure to unite Ireland. Independence for the four nations within the EU might make sense.
    Poor old Wales. Always forgotten eh? Voted for Brexit and I think about 3% recently wanted independence. So that’s not going to work well in your scenario is it really?
    We can always force Wales to be independent, or flog it off to the Qataris. We have to think outside the box here. We're missing a great opportunity to subsidise the balkans ad nauseam.
    Never in a million years
  • Options
    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    John_M said:

    welshowl said:

    Anazina said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Conservatism fought back.

    Conservatism chose the wrong battle because Blair got under its skin too much and made it forget what it really believed in.
    Conservatives realised there were more important priorities than materialism.
    Too much of europhilia was based around an embarrassment to be British for it ever to appeal to Conservatives.
    A Europhilia based around pride in being English would be a different ballgame.
    The UK is arguably an outdated concept, thanks to a permanent large bloc for independence in Scotland, and increasing geopolitical pressure to unite Ireland. Independence for the four nations within the EU might make sense.
    Poor old Wales. Always forgotten eh? Voted for Brexit and I think about 3% recently wanted independence. So that’s not going to work well in your scenario is it really?
    We can always force Wales to be independent, or flog it off to the Qataris. We have to think outside the box here. We're missing a great opportunity to subsidise the balkans ad nauseam.
    Never in a million years
    Your name is going on ze list.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,298
    edited January 2018
    Anazina said:

    welshowl said:

    Anazina said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Conservatism fought back.

    Conservatism chose the wrong battle because Blair got under its skin too much and made it forget what it really believed in.
    Conservatives realised there were more important priorities than materialism.
    Too much of europhilia was based around an embarrassment to be British for it ever to appeal to Conservatives.
    A Europhilia based around pride in being English would be a different ballgame.
    The UK is arguably an outdated concept, thanks to a permanent large bloc for independence in Scotland, and increasing geopolitical pressure to unite Ireland. Independence for the four nations within the EU might make sense.
    Poor old Wales. Always forgotten eh? Voted for Brexit and I think about 3% recently wanted independence. So that’s not going to work well in your scenario is it really?
    It is a matter of making the case and thinking imaginatively about the future – I am just speculating as my OP makes clear.
    Lay off our future in Wales - genuinely do you know anything about Welsh politics
  • Options
    AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    Anazina said:

    welshowl said:

    Anazina said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Conservatism fought back.

    Conservatism chose the wrong battle because Blair got under its skin too much and made it forget what it really believed in.
    Conservatives realised there were more important priorities than materialism.
    Too much of europhilia was based around an embarrassment to be British for it ever to appeal to Conservatives.
    A Europhilia based around pride in being English would be a different ballgame.
    The UK is arguably an outdated concept, thanks to a permanent large bloc for independence in Scotland, and increasing geopolitical pressure to unite Ireland. Independence for the four nations within the EU might make sense.
    Poor old Wales. Always forgotten eh? Voted for Brexit and I think about 3% recently wanted independence. So that’s not going to work well in your scenario is it really?
    It is a matter of making the case and thinking imaginatively about the future – I am just speculating as my OP makes clear.
    Lay off our future in Wales - genuinely do you know anything a bout Welsh politics
    Very little.
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited January 2018
    Cyclefree said:

    Mr Meeks’s point on the previous thread that choosing GE candidates early allows their opponents to do a more thorough investigation of them to find something discreditable may be supported by this story on Ms Rudd’s Labour opponent - http://hurryupharry.org/2018/01/16/the-shortlisted-labour-candidate-who-shared-antisemitic-memes/.

    The idea of describing Holocaust victims as dying “with dignity” is unbelievable, really.

    That is just staggering, even by the extraordinary standards of antisemitism (and plain idiocy) we have come to regard as normal for extreme-left Labour supporters, candidates and even MPs.

    I have read many gob-smacking things in my lifetime, but I don't think I've ever seen something to compare with the suggestion that the phrase 'died with dignity' applies to men, women and children who were herded into cattle trucks in the most appalling conditions for journeys which lasted for days on end, at the end of which those who survived were stripped naked in queues and whipped into gas chambers where they were murdered with nerve gas, and their bodies (some of them still not quite dead) then being tipped into industrial crematoria by slave labourers.

    What on earth has become of the Labour Party?
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    stevef said:

    For those like me concerned at the hard left Corbynista infestation of Labour, there is a glimmer of hope. Corbyn's own shadow ministers think he will be too old in 2022. In 2022 he will have to commit to staying in office to the age of 78 -in the umlikely event of him winning an election. Old Father Time may well ride to Labour's rescue.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/corbyn-too-old-age-labour-election-fears-shadow-ministers-latest-a8162761.html

    Sorry, my friend, you are badly misreading this. The significance is that the hard left figures behind Corbyn think that he is coming to end of the period where he'll be useful to them. That doesn't mean they are giving up, it means that they are planning for the next move in their takeover of the party (and potentially the country).
  • Options
    YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    Anazina said:

    Anazina said:

    welshowl said:

    Anazina said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Conservatism fought back.

    Conservatism chose the wrong battle because Blair got under its skin too much and made it forget what it really believed in.
    Conservatives realised there were more important priorities than materialism.
    Too much of europhilia was based around an embarrassment to be British for it ever to appeal to Conservatives.
    A Europhilia based around pride in being English would be a different ballgame.
    The UK is arguably an outdated concept, thanks to a permanent large bloc for independence in Scotland, and increasing geopolitical pressure to unite Ireland. Independence for the four nations within the EU might make sense.
    Poor old Wales. Always forgotten eh? Voted for Brexit and I think about 3% recently wanted independence. So that’s not going to work well in your scenario is it really?
    It is a matter of making the case and thinking imaginatively about the future – I am just speculating as my OP makes clear.
    Lay off our future in Wales - genuinely do you know anything a bout Welsh politics
    Very little.
    Then, you have all the qualifications to be parachuted into one of Labour's safe seats.

    The main characteristic of Welsh Labour is that it is completely uninterested in Wales and the Welsh.
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,205

    Cyclefree said:

    Mr Meeks’s point on the previous thread that choosing GE candidates early allows their opponents to do a more thorough investigation of them to find something discreditable may be supported by this story on Ms Rudd’s Labour opponent - http://hurryupharry.org/2018/01/16/the-shortlisted-labour-candidate-who-shared-antisemitic-memes/.

    The idea of describing Holocaust victims as dying “with dignity” is unbelievable, really.

    That is just staggering, even by the extraordinary standards of antisemitism (and plain idiocy) we have come to regard as normal for extreme-left Labour supporters, candidates and even MPs.

    I have read many gob-smacking things in my lifetime, but I don't think I've ever seen something to compare with the suggestion that the phrase 'died with dignity' applies to men, women and children who were herded into cattle trucks in the most appalling conditions for journeys which lasted for days on end, at the end of which those who survived were stripped naked in queues and whipped into gas chambers where they were murdered with nerve gas, and their bodies (some of them still not quite dead) then being tipped into industrial crematoria by slave labourers.

    What on earth has become of the Labour Party?
    Perhaps some of the Labour Party supporters on here might tell us.

    They’re usually quick to comment on the travails of other parties.

    (Oh .... and you forgot the mass shootings over pits the victims had to dig themselves. About a million were killed in this way long before the industrial slaughter you describe.)
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    I hope nobody got involved in the ponzi scheme that is Bitconnect...

    https://thenextweb.com/hardfork/2018/01/16/bitconnect-shut-down-closed/
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419
    dr_spyn said:

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/953392444741226496

    Corbyn past it. Hunt down the saboteurs.

    This seems a remarkably oddly-timed article. has it come from someone pissed off at the reshuffle? Corbyn is showing more leadership quality now than at any time since he was elected - or is that the problem?

    Leaving aside the headline issue (yes, Corbyn is unusually old to be a party leader but he's not showing it), the politics are strange. Why attack him now when his position is the strongest it's ever been, when there's no chance of anyone moving to oppose him and when the membership is more solidly supportive than ever? Are they putting down a market for the future? If so, it seems fairly pointless: if Corbyn falters, his age will always get brought up with or without preparation. Are they trying to clip his wings? If so, I don't see how it works. Or are young radicals in a hurry and worried that they'll miss their turn? Because if they are, they're in for a rude awakening (not least about their own ability).
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,001

    I hope nobody got involved in the ponzi scheme that is Bitconnect...

    https://thenextweb.com/hardfork/2018/01/16/bitconnect-shut-down-closed/

    I have a sizeable sum in GBP and EUR at Coinbase/GDAX which they allow me to withdraw at a derisory rate. My great fear is that they go bust before I get my money out.
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    rcs1000 said:

    I hope nobody got involved in the ponzi scheme that is Bitconnect...

    https://thenextweb.com/hardfork/2018/01/16/bitconnect-shut-down-closed/

    I have a sizeable sum in GBP and EUR at Coinbase/GDAX which they allow me to withdraw at a derisory rate. My great fear is that they go bust before I get my money out.
    Coinbase are a damn sight more legit than Bitconnect.
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    stevef said:

    For those like me concerned at the hard left Corbynista infestation of Labour, there is a glimmer of hope. Corbyn's own shadow ministers think he will be too old in 2022. In 2022 he will have to commit to staying in office to the age of 78 -in the umlikely event of him winning an election. Old Father Time may well ride to Labour's rescue.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/corbyn-too-old-age-labour-election-fears-shadow-ministers-latest-a8162761.html

    He wouldn't have to commit - any more than Churchill in Ocober 1951 at almost 77 had to commit to serving a full term.
This discussion has been closed.