Democracy gives you the ability to do dumb things and people will choose to do dumb things. Mediocrity will carry, I think. It's interesting to see how it plays out.
Purely from a position of statecraft, it would be foolish not to give the people one last chance to revoke Article 50, otherwise our current treaty opt-outs will be gone forever. Despite what May says now, I think she'll go for it once it can no longer be said that it undermines our negotiating position.
They are already gone forever. If we go back begging to be readmitted do you really think they won’t extract some concessions?
If we revoke Article 50, legally we go back to the status quo ante. Politically however, it changes everything, because Euroscepticism will no longer be a credible force in British politics. Joining the Euro will suddenly look like a logical and necessary step.
I am really looking forward to my holibobs with Jezza in charge if Justin is to be believed. £500 max spend per two weeks while I am there, going to really be able to splash out, not.
Not many of the yuff will be going large in Magaful etc.
That would last me about four days on holiday. We struggle to get through a day on less than £120/day, amazing as that might seem.
I was suggesting £500 per person - so a family of four would have £2000 to play with. Is that so unreasonable?
Yes it bloody well is. It's grade A nuts.
£500 per year? Per trip? Per what? What about foreigners who work here (the 3 odd million), same rules? Well that really will get net migration straight down into the negatives won't it? Who wants to earn in a pretty non convertible currency? Mind the stampede. Christ the Guardian's having apoplexy about manning the NHS "because of Brexit", that will be peanuts in comparison. if they are all to be paid in monopoly money.
What about those who already have a foreign bank account or a foreign source of income (say they rent a flat in Mallorca?). How are you going to deal with them?
All credit cards going to become like most Chinese ones only issued in non convertible currency? Bang goes internet shopping abroad.
Companies: If I want to pay for a steel import from Austria am I going to have to go to the exchange commissar to get approval?
Grade A nuts doesn't remotely cover it.
"Labour to stop your foreign holidays" is about as toxic as the tabloids need to go to kill Labour at the next election.
But people went on foreign holidays in the 1960s and 1970s - the heyday of Package Holidays!
In 1971, UK residents made 6.7 million holiday trips abroad. In 2008 that number had risen to 45.5 million.
"Projections on the proposed new boundaries have the system biased even more to the blue team."
Gerrymandering UK style!
Maybe you should look up how the Electoral Commission works.
I suggest you aren't credulous – the review was requested by the Conservative Party.
The roll is years overdue - the review process is independent. Grow up.
Good grief some people take blogs too seriously.
It appears I was (partly) wrong. My sense was that this was requested by Cameron then kicked into the long grass when the Liberals rebelled (during the coalition years).
Not sure why that, right or wrong, deserves such a rude response. Maybe go for a quiet lie down 'Felix'.
Democracy gives you the ability to do dumb things and people will choose to do dumb things. Mediocrity will carry, I think. It's interesting to see how it plays out.
Purely from a position of statecraft, it would be foolish not to give the people one last chance to revoke Article 50, otherwise our current treaty opt-outs will be gone forever. Despite what May says now, I think she'll go for it once it can no longer be said that it undermines our negotiating position.
They are already gone forever. If we go back begging to be readmitted do you really think they won’t extract some concessions?
If we revoke Article 50, legally we go back to the status quo ante. Politically however, it changes everything, because Euroscepticism will no longer be a credible force in British politics. Joining the Euro will suddenly look like a logical and necessary step.
It is not known whether it is revocable or not, and it isn’t clear that either side want to test that in the courts. As for joining the Euro being “logical and necessary”.. I’ll have some of what your smoking.
Democracy gives you the ability to do dumb things and people will choose to do dumb things. Mediocrity will carry, I think. It's interesting to see how it plays out.
Purely from a position of statecraft, it would be foolish not to give the people one last chance to revoke Article 50, otherwise our current treaty opt-outs will be gone forever. Despite what May says now, I think she'll go for it once it can no longer be said that it undermines our negotiating position.
They are already gone forever. If we go back begging to be readmitted do you really think they won’t extract some concessions?
If we revoke Article 50, legally we go back to the status quo ante. Politically however, it changes everything, because Euroscepticism will no longer be a credible force in British politics. Joining the Euro will suddenly look like a logical and necessary step.
LOL. I do love Williamgenn's fanatical beliefs. He really is the Eurofanatic equivalent of Comical Ali.
"Projections on the proposed new boundaries have the system biased even more to the blue team."
Gerrymandering UK style!
Maybe you should look up how the Electoral Commission works.
I suggest you aren't credulous – the review was requested by the Conservative Party.
The roll is years overdue - the review process is independent. Grow up.
Good grief some people take blogs too seriously.
It appears I was (partly) wrong. My sense was that this was requested by Cameron then kicked into the long grass when the Liberals rebelled (during the coalition years).
Not sure why that, right or wrong, deserves such a rude response. Maybe go for a quiet lie down 'Felix'.
Because you’re spreading fake news about it being gerrymandered by the Tories
Democracy gives you the ability to do dumb things and people will choose to do dumb things. Mediocrity will carry, I think. It's interesting to see how it plays out.
Purely from a position of statecraft, it would be foolish not to give the people one last chance to revoke Article 50, otherwise our current treaty opt-outs will be gone forever. Despite what May says now, I think she'll go for it once it can no longer be said that it undermines our negotiating position.
They are already gone forever. If we go back begging to be readmitted do you really think they won’t extract some concessions?
If we revoke Article 50, legally we go back to the status quo ante. Politically however, it changes everything, because Euroscepticism will no longer be a credible force in British politics. Joining the Euro will suddenly look like a logical and necessary step.
It is not known whether it is revocable or not, and it isn’t clear that either side want to test that in the courts. As for joining the Euro being “logical and necessary”.. I’ll have some of what your smoking.
The EU announced the other day that the only body which could decide if it was revocable was the ECJ. It is they alone who will have the final say if anyone is dumb enough to try and pursue it.
Will Brexit still be a live issue in 2022? I suspect it will be, in that there will be parts of the country where there are concentrated Brexit losses and therefore residual "cross-ness". And it so happens, that a lot of those seats are LibDem/Conservative fights
What do you think the Conservatives' EU policy will be in 2022? Using Boris as a guide, it will likely be in favour of membership, having had a hard Brexit ruled out by reality, and a soft Brexit ruled out by politics.
I think it extremely unlikely that either of the main two parties will have "rejoin the EU" as a policy platform in my lifetime. We have made a decision, and we will stick to it.
However, I suspect however "hard" our Brexit is now, that our relationship with the EU will deepen again over time, with us ending up with a relationship with it more like Switzerland or Norway than Canada.
And you completely discount the possibility of a second referendum?
The path to a second referendum is a narrow one.
Imagine in November 2018, Mrs May brings the Brexit (Settlement) Bill before the House of Commons. A number of Conservative (some who think we are too generous to the EU, and some who wish us to stay) and a few DUP rebels result in the Bill failing to pass. With resolution seemingly impossible (and with Corbyn's Labour Party, despite being pro-Brexit, being utterly unhelpful), Mrs May calls for a General Election to enable a new parliament to pass the damn thing. Labour, hoping to outperform similarly to 2017, comply.
In the resulting General Election pro-"Second Referendum" candidates garner a majority of seats in the House of Commons. A referendum is held in early January on whether we should accept the Deal, Leave with No Deal, or Stay in the EU.
Mike Smithson deliberately or accidentally misses the fact that the SNP are effectively Labour seats when it comes to deciding who will become PM and form the government. So while Lab are 1 behind the Tories, Lab+SNP are 35 ahead.
That's without considering the effect of the likes of Plaid and Greens etc
Whether you have a point, or not, you clearly cannot 'count' SNP seats as *Labour* seats without also reckoning SNP votes as *Labour* votes, for purposes of any analysis.
I am really looking forward to my holibobs with Jezza in charge if Justin is to be believed. £500 max spend per two weeks while I am there, going to really be able to splash out, not.
Not many of the yuff will be going large in Magaful etc.
That would last me about four days on holiday. We struggle to get through a day on less than £120/day, amazing as that might seem.
I was suggesting £500 per person - so a family of four would have £2000 to play with. Is that so unreasonable?
Yes it bloody well is. It's grade A nuts.
£500 per year? Per trip? Per what? What about foreigners who work here (the 3 odd million), same rules? Well that really will get net migration straight down into the negatives won't it? Who wants to earn in a pretty non convertible currency? Mind the stampede. Christ the Guardian's having apoplexy about manning the NHS "because of Brexit", that will be peanuts in comparison. if they are all to be paid in monopoly money.
What about those who already have a foreign bank account or a foreign source of income (say they rent a flat in Mallorca?). How are you going to deal with them?
All credit cards going to become like most Chinese ones only issued in non convertible currency? Bang goes internet shopping abroad.
Companies: If I want to pay for a steel import from Austria am I going to have to go to the exchange commissar to get approval?
Grade A nuts doesn't remotely cover it.
"Labour to stop your foreign holidays" is about as toxic as the tabloids need to go to kill Labour at the next election.
But people went on foreign holidays in the 1960s and 1970s - the heyday of Package Holidays!
Can’t inagine gap years surviving the rather harsh £500 maximum!
Well, I guess that's one positive of exchange controls.
Democracy gives you the ability to do dumb things and people will choose to do dumb things. Mediocrity will carry, I think. It's interesting to see how it plays out.
Purely from a position of statecraft, it would be foolish not to give the people one last chance to revoke Article 50, otherwise our current treaty opt-outs will be gone forever. Despite what May says now, I think she'll go for it once it can no longer be said that it undermines our negotiating position.
It is certainly possible, if in my opinion less likely than not. There is an uncertainty principle at play at Brexit: the only way you can make it acceptable is by compromising the project to death, at which point it should be clear there is no point in doing it. The thing about Brexit is not that it's bad, but it is utterly pointless. And as there will be ongoing disruption and costs and it is very unhelpful, people may say, why are we doing this?
Will Brexit still be a live issue in 2022? I suspect it will be, in that there will be parts of the country where there are concentrated Brexit losses and therefore residual "cross-ness". And it so happens, that a lot of those seats are LibDem/Conservative fights
What do you think the Conservatives' EU policy will be in 2022? Using Boris as a guide, it will likely be in favour of membership, having had a hard Brexit ruled out by reality, and a soft Brexit ruled out by politics.
I think it extremely unlikely that either of the main two parties will have "rejoin the EU" as a policy platform in my lifetime. We have made a decision, and we will stick to it.
However, I suspect however "hard" our Brexit is now, that our relationship with the EU will deepen again over time, with us ending up with a relationship with it more like Switzerland or Norway than Canada.
And you completely discount the possibility of a second referendum?
The path to a second referendum is a narrow one.
Imagine in November 2018, Mrs May brings the Brexit (Settlement) Bill before the House of Commons. A number of Conservative (some who think we are too generous to the EU, and some who wish us to stay) and a few DUP rebels result in the Bill failing to pass. With resolution seemingly impossible (and with Corbyn's Labour Party, despite being pro-Brexit, being utterly unhelpful), Mrs May calls for a General Election to enable a new parliament to pass the damn thing. Labour, hoping to outperform similarly to 2017, comply.
In the resulting General Election pro-"Second Referendum" candidates garner a majority of seats in the House of Commons. A referendum is held in early January on whether we should accept the Deal, Leave with No Deal, or Stay in the EU.
I do not think this scenario very likely.
Me neither, and I don't think that's the scenario that will bring about a second referendum. It is likely to happen because the cabinet will remain very split about the deal. People like Boris will find it hard to support, and a second referendum will be actively offered by the government as a 'get out of jail' card by them, and as a way to confound the opposition parties.
Boris will do his 'two articles' act again and come out in support of Remain.
Democracy gives you the ability to do dumb things and people will choose to do dumb things. Mediocrity will carry, I think. It's interesting to see how it plays out.
Purely from a position of statecraft, it would be foolish not to give the people one last chance to revoke Article 50, otherwise our current treaty opt-outs will be gone forever. Despite what May says now, I think she'll go for it once it can no longer be said that it undermines our negotiating position.
Despite what May says now is the crucial point.There must be considerable concern in a large elements of the conservative party , that she might go for the referendum option of governing once again .
The Huff Post says that Shawcroft did recommend one case of alleged anti-semitism for investigation.
I used to read Shawcroft's regular column in Labour Briefing. It was certainly fairly left wing but I do not recall it being anti-semitic.
If it’s true that this story is fake news, then that just adds to the sense among Corbynistas that the MSM can’t be trusted. A shame, because it does seem from many of the stories that have come out in the last two years or so there is a problem with anti-semitism in the party.
Mike Smithson deliberately or accidentally misses the fact that the SNP are effectively Labour seats when it comes to deciding who will become PM and form the government. So while Lab are 1 behind the Tories, Lab+SNP are 35 ahead.
That's without considering the effect of the likes of Plaid and Greens etc
Whether you have a point, or not, you clearly cannot 'count' SNP seats as *Labour* seats without also reckoning SNP votes as *Labour* votes, for purposes of any analysis.
Will Brexit still be a live issue in 2022? I suspect it will be, in that there will be parts of the country where there are concentrated Brexit losses and therefore residual "cross-ness". And it so happens, that a lot of those seats are LibDem/Conservative fights
What do you think the Conservatives' EU policy will be in 2022? Using Boris as a guide, it will likely be in favour of membership, having had a hard Brexit ruled out by reality, and a soft Brexit ruled out by politics.
I think it extremely unlikely that either of the main two parties will have "rejoin the EU" as a policy platform in my lifetime. We have made a decision, and we will stick to it.
However, I suspect however "hard" our Brexit is now, that our relationship with the EU will deepen again over time, with us ending up with a relationship with it more like Switzerland or Norway than Canada.
And you completely discount the possibility of a second referendum?
The path to a second referendum is a narrow one.
Imagine in November 2018, Mrs May brings the Brexit (Settlement) Bill before the House of Commons. A number of Conservative (some who think we are too generous to the EU, and some who wish us to stay) and a few DUP rebels result in the Bill failing to pass. With resolution seemingly impossible (and with Corbyn's Labour Party, despite being pro-Brexit, being utterly unhelpful), Mrs May calls for a General Election to enable a new parliament to pass the damn thing. Labour, hoping to outperform similarly to 2017, comply.
In the resulting General Election pro-"Second Referendum" candidates garner a majority of seats in the House of Commons. A referendum is held in early January on whether we should accept the Deal, Leave with No Deal, or Stay in the EU.
I do not think this scenario very likely.
Me neither, and I don't think that's the scenario that will bring about a second referendum. It is likely to happen because the cabinet will remain very split about the deal. People like Boris will find it hard to support, and a second referendum will be actively offered by the government as a 'get out of jail' card by them, and as a way to confound the opposition parties.
Boris will do his 'two articles' act again and come out in support of Remain.
Boris will do his 'two articles' act again and come out in support of Remain.
Extremely unlikely, and it would terminate Boris' political career to appear to be a turncoat like that.
Boris will do his 'two articles' act again and come out in support of Remain.
Extremely unlikely, it and would terminate Boris' political career to appear to be a turncoat like that.
That's why he's ramping up the fantasy land stuff at the moment. It's positioning for him to be able to say, "Brexit would have been great but it was compromised to death and actually we'd be better off staying than what we've ended up with."
I am really looking forward to my holibobs with Jezza in charge if Justin is to be believed. £500 max spend per two weeks while I am there, going to really be able to splash out, not.
Not many of the yuff will be going large in Magaful etc.
That would last me about four days on holiday. We struggle to get through a day on less than £120/day, amazing as that might seem.
I was suggesting £500 per person - so a family of four would have £2000 to play with. Is that so unreasonable?
Yes it bloody well is. It's grade A nuts.
£500 per year? Per trip? Per what? What about foreigners who work here (the 3 odd million), same rules? Well that really will get net migration straight down into the negatives won't it? Who wants to earn in a pretty non convertible currency? Mind the stampede. Christ the Guardian's having apoplexy about manning the NHS "because of Brexit", that will be peanuts in comparison. if they are all to be paid in monopoly money.
What about those who already have a foreign bank account or a foreign source of income (say they rent a flat in Mallorca?). How are you going to deal with them?
All credit cards going to become like most Chinese ones only issued in non convertible currency? Bang goes internet shopping abroad.
Companies: If I want to pay for a steel import from Austria am I going to have to go to the exchange commissar to get approval?
Grade A nuts doesn't remotely cover it.
"Labour to stop your foreign holidays" is about as toxic as the tabloids need to go to kill Labour at the next election.
But people went on foreign holidays in the 1960s and 1970s - the heyday of Package Holidays!
Can’t inagine gap years surviving the rather harsh £500 maximum!
Well, I guess that's one positive of exchange controls.
While I appreciate that PB Tories do rather enjoy getting in a lather about the horrors of a Labour government, they are rather over egging it.
John McDonnell did say that his contingency plans for power included plans for a run on Sterling, but exchange controls were not in the manifesto, and will not be in the next one. The Young Labour movement meeting did pass a motion in favour of EC as part of financial regulation, but that is a very long way from becoming party policy.
Mike Smithson deliberately or accidentally misses the fact that the SNP are effectively Labour seats when it comes to deciding who will become PM and form the government. So while Lab are 1 behind the Tories, Lab+SNP are 35 ahead.
That's without considering the effect of the likes of Plaid and Greens etc
Whether you have a point, or not, you clearly cannot 'count' SNP seats as *Labour* seats without also reckoning SNP votes as *Labour* votes, for purposes of any analysis.
Fair point.
Either way though the original (years ago) complaint about bias was in seat size and OGH's analytics ignores that still.
Democracy gives you the ability to do dumb things and people will choose to do dumb things. Mediocrity will carry, I think. It's interesting to see how it plays out.
Purely from a position of statecraft, it would be foolish not to give the people one last chance to revoke Article 50, otherwise our current treaty opt-outs will be gone forever. Despite what May says now, I think she'll go for it once it can no longer be said that it undermines our negotiating position.
They are already gone forever. If we go back begging to be readmitted do you really think they won’t extract some concessions?
There are two different sets of "concessions": the ones enshrined in treaties (such as from joining the Euro), and the one that were not (such as the budget rebate).
If, in the incredibly unlikely scenario of us wishing to reverse Brexit (which we will not), we were to negotiate a revocation of Article 50, then the ones not enshrined in treaties would obviously be gone.
But I think it would be much harder for them to change the ones in the treaties. Getting EU treaties passed is an incredibly tortuous process, that rarely takes less than five or six years. I just can't see the EU going through that palava to remove our Euro opt-out. (In fact, I suspect that there are quite a few Eurozone countries that very definitely don't want us in the bloc, and who would be very resistant to that change.)
I am really looking forward to my holibobs with Jezza in charge if Justin is to be believed. £500 max spend per two weeks while I am there, going to really be able to splash out, not.
Not many of the yuff will be going large in Magaful etc.
That would last me about four days on holiday. We struggle to get through a day on less than £120/day, amazing as that might seem.
I was suggesting £500 per person - so a family of four would have £2000 to play with. Is that so unreasonable?
Yes it bloody well is. It's grade A nuts.
£500 per year? Per trip? Per what? What about foreigners who work here (the 3 odd million), same rules? Well that really will get net migration straight down into the negatives won't it? Who wants to earn in a pretty non convertible currency? Mind the stampede. Christ the Guardian's having apoplexy about manning the NHS "because of Brexit", that will be peanuts in comparison. if they are all to be paid in monopoly money.
What about those who already have a foreign bank account or a foreign source of income (say they rent a flat in Mallorca?). How are you going to deal with them?
All credit cards going to become like most Chinese ones only issued in non convertible currency? Bang goes internet shopping abroad.
Companies: If I want to pay for a steel import from Austria am I going to have to go to the exchange commissar to get approval?
Grade A nuts doesn't remotely cover it.
"Labour to stop your foreign holidays" is about as toxic as the tabloids need to go to kill Labour at the next election.
But people went on foreign holidays in the 1960s and 1970s - the heyday of Package Holidays!
Can’t inagine gap years surviving the rather harsh £500 maximum!
Well, I guess that's one positive of exchange controls.
While I appreciate that PB Tories do rather enjoy getting in a lather about the horrors of a Labour government, they are rather over egging it.
John McDonnell did say that his contingency plans for power included plans for a run on Sterling, but exchange controls were not in the manifesto, and will not be in the next one. The Young Labour movement meeting did pass a motion in favour of EC as part of financial regulation, but that is a very long way from becoming party policy.
It was Justin banging on about £500 per holiday that started it.
Now banning driverless trains...thats a different matter.
I am really looking forward to my holibobs with Jezza in charge if Justin is to be believed. £500 max spend per two weeks while I am there, going to really be able to splash out, not.
Not many of the yuff will be going large in Magaful etc.
That would last me about four days on holiday. We struggle to get through a day on less than £120/day, amazing as that might seem.
I was suggesting £500 per person - so a family of four would have £2000 to play with. Is that so unreasonable?
Yes it bloody well is. It's grade A nuts.
£500 per year? Per trip? Per what? What about foreigners who work here (the 3 odd million), same rules? Well that really will get net migration straight down into the negatives won't it? Who wants to earn in a pretty non convertible currency? Mind the stampede. Christ the Guardian's having apoplexy about manning the NHS "because of Brexit", that will be peanuts in comparison. if they are all to be paid in monopoly money.
What about those who already have a foreign bank account or a foreign source of income (say they rent a flat in Mallorca?). How are you going to deal with them?
All credit cards going to become like most Chinese ones only issued in non convertible currency? Bang goes internet shopping abroad.
Companies: If I want to pay for a steel import from Austria am I going to have to go to the exchange commissar to get approval?
Grade A nuts doesn't remotely cover it.
"Labour to stop your foreign holidays" is about as toxic as the tabloids need to go to kill Labour at the next election.
But people went on foreign holidays in the 1960s and 1970s - the heyday of Package Holidays!
In 1971, UK residents made 6.7 million holiday trips abroad. In 2008 that number had risen to 45.5 million.
Though still mainly to Europe, only about half have travelled beyond that and only a minority beyond Europe and the USA
Will Brexit still be a live issue in 2022? I suspect it will be, in that there will be parts of the country where there are concentrated Brexit losses and therefore residual "cross-ness". And it so happens, that a lot of those seats are LibDem/Conservative fights
What do you think the Conservatives' EU policy will be in 2022? Using Boris as a guide, it will likely be in favour of membership, having had a hard Brexit ruled out by reality, and a soft Brexit ruled out by politics.
I think it extremely unlikely that either of the main two parties will have "rejoin the EU" as a policy platform in my lifetime. We have made a decision, and we will stick to it.
However, I suspect however "hard" our Brexit is now, that our relationship with the EU will deepen again over time, with us ending up with a relationship with it more like Switzerland or Norway than Canada.
And you completely discount the possibility of a second referendum?
The path to a second referendum is a narrow one.
Imagine in November 2018, Mrs May brings the Brexit (Settlement) Bill before the House of Commons. A number of Conservative (some who think we are too generous to the EU, and some who wish us to stay) and a few DUP rebels result in the Bill failing to pass. With resolution seemingly impossible (and with Corbyn's Labour Party, despite being pro-Brexit, being utterly unhelpful), Mrs May calls for a General Election to enable a new parliament to pass the damn thing. Labour, hoping to outperform similarly to 2017, comply.
In the resulting General Election pro-"Second Referendum" candidates garner a majority of seats in the House of Commons. A referendum is held in early January on whether we should accept the Deal, Leave with No Deal, or Stay in the EU.
I do not think this scenario very likely.
Me neither, and I don't think that's the scenario that will bring about a second referendum. It is likely to happen because the cabinet will remain very split about the deal. People like Boris will find it hard to support, and a second referendum will be actively offered by the government as a 'get out of jail' card by them, and as a way to confound the opposition parties.
Boris will do his 'two articles' act again and come out in support of Remain.
I am sure there must also be a way in which an opposition amendment could lead to a position where a second referendum is required. This would of course require Labour to get, or fall, off the fence.
Democracy gives you the ability to do dumb things and people will choose to do dumb things. Mediocrity will carry, I think. It's interesting to see how it plays out.
Purely from a position of statecraft, it would be foolish not to give the people one last chance to revoke Article 50, otherwise our current treaty opt-outs will be gone forever. Despite what May says now, I think she'll go for it once it can no longer be said that it undermines our negotiating position.
Despite what May says now is the crucial point.There must be considerable concern in a large elements of the conservative party , that she might go for the referendum option of governing once again .
It would actually be quite a neat way to get rid of her. She could hold the referendum between the deal and Remain but stay fairly neutral. Then when Remain wins, she can resign on the basis that her deal obviously wasn't good enough to convince the people. An exact replay of Cameron's fate.
Democracy gives you the ability to do dumb things and people will choose to do dumb things. Mediocrity will carry, I think. It's interesting to see how it plays out.
Purely from a position of statecraft, it would be foolish not to give the people one last chance to revoke Article 50, otherwise our current treaty opt-outs will be gone forever. Despite what May says now, I think she'll go for it once it can no longer be said that it undermines our negotiating position.
They are already gone forever. If we go back begging to be readmitted do you really think they won’t extract some concessions?
If we revoke Article 50, legally we go back to the status quo ante. Politically however, it changes everything, because Euroscepticism will no longer be a credible force in British politics. Joining the Euro will suddenly look like a logical and necessary step.
It is not known whether it is revocable or not, and it isn’t clear that either side want to test that in the courts. As for joining the Euro being “logical and necessary”.. I’ll have some of what your smoking.
The EU announced the other day that the only body which could decide if it was revocable was the ECJ. It is they alone who will have the final say if anyone is dumb enough to try and pursue it.
Well, we're not going to revoke Article 50...
...But if we did want to (which we won't), then I think it would probably be achieved by a unanimous vote of the EU 27 extending the departure date indefinitely. And then in the next treaty revision (2032 or whenever), Article 50 would be made officially revokable.
The Huff Post says that Shawcroft did recommend one case of alleged anti-semitism for investigation.
I used to read Shawcroft's regular column in Labour Briefing. It was certainly fairly left wing but I do not recall it being anti-semitic.
If it’s true that this story is fake news, then that just adds to the sense among Corbynistas that the MSM can’t be trusted. A shame, because it does seem from many of the stories that have come out in the last two years or so there is a problem with anti-semitism in the party.
TA What are the main accusations ? Are there any MPs ?
Democracy gives you the ability to do dumb things and people will choose to do dumb things. Mediocrity will carry, I think. It's interesting to see how it plays out.
Purely from a position of statecraft, it would be foolish not to give the people one last chance to revoke Article 50, otherwise our current treaty opt-outs will be gone forever. Despite what May says now, I think she'll go for it once it can no longer be said that it undermines our negotiating position.
Despite what May says now is the crucial point.There must be considerable concern in a large elements of the conservative party , that she might go for the referendum option of governing once again .
It would actually be quite a neat way to get rid of her. She could hold the referendum between the deal and Remain but stay fairly neutral. Then when Remain wins, she can resign on the basis that her deal obviously wasn't good enough to convince the people. An exact replay of Cameron's fate.
Then of course Leave backing Tories and UKIP would start the campaign for a third referendum the very next day on that scenario
Will Brexit still be a live issue in 2022? I suspect it will be, in that there will be parts of the country where there are concentrated Brexit losses and therefore residual "cross-ness". And it so happens, that a lot of those seats are LibDem/Conservative fights
What do you think the Conservatives' EU policy will be in 2022? Using Boris as a guide, it will likely be in favour of membership, having had a hard Brexit ruled out by reality, and a soft Brexit ruled out by politics.
I think it extremely unlikely that either of the main two parties will have "rejoin the EU" as a policy platform in my lifetime. We have made a decision, and we will stick to it.
However, I suspect however "hard" our Brexit is now, that our relationship with the EU will deepen again over time, with us ending up with a relationship with it more like Switzerland or Norway than Canada.
And you completely discount the possibility of a second referendum?
The path to a second referendum is a narrow one.
Imagine in November 2018, Mrs May brings the Brexit (Settlement) Bill before the House of Commons. A number of Conservative (some who think we are too generous to the EU, and some who wish us to stay) and a few DUP rebels result in the Bill failing to pass. With resolution seemingly impossible (and with Corbyn's Labour Party, despite being pro-Brexit, being utterly unhelpful), Mrs May calls for a General Election to enable a new parliament to pass the damn thing. Labour, hoping to outperform similarly to 2017, comply.
In the resulting General Election pro-"Second Referendum" candidates garner a majority of seats in the House of Commons. A referendum is held in early January on whether we should accept the Deal, Leave with No Deal, or Stay in the EU.
I do not think this scenario very likely.
Me neither, and I don't think that's the scenario that will bring about a second referendum. It is likely to happen because the cabinet will remain very split about the deal. People like Boris will find it hard to support, and a second referendum will be actively offered by the government as a 'get out of jail' card by them, and as a way to confound the opposition parties.
Boris will do his 'two articles' act again and come out in support of Remain.
I disagree. I think the cabinet will be largely united behind the deal.
Will Brexit still be a live issue in 2022? I suspect it will be, in that there will be parts of the country where there are concentrated Brexit losses and therefore residual "cross-ness". And it so happens, that a lot of those seats are LibDem/Conservative fights
What do you think the Conservatives' EU policy will be in 2022? Using Boris as a guide, it will likely be in favour of membership, having had a hard Brexit ruled out by reality, and a soft Brexit ruled out by politics.
I think it extremely unlikely that either of the main two parties will have "rejoin the EU" as a policy platform in my lifetime. We have made a decision, and we will stick to it.
However, I suspect however "hard" our Brexit is now, that our relationship with the EU will deepen again over time, with us ending up with a relationship with it more like Switzerland or Norway than Canada.
And you completely discount the possibility of a second referendum?
Yes. Completely.
There is no desire for it either at the top of either main party, nor is there the time to organise and hold it.
If there was to be a second referendum it wouldn't have been a second EU one, but a second SIndy one. We're not even going to have that as the timing simply didn't work, we certainly won't have an EU one.
The Huff Post says that Shawcroft did recommend one case of alleged anti-semitism for investigation.
I used to read Shawcroft's regular column in Labour Briefing. It was certainly fairly left wing but I do not recall it being anti-semitic.
If it’s true that this story is fake news, then that just adds to the sense among Corbynistas that the MSM can’t be trusted. A shame, because it does seem from many of the stories that have come out in the last two years or so there is a problem with anti-semitism in the party.
TA What are the main accusations ? Are there any MPs ?
I don’t think there any are one or two specific allegations, it’s more a series of stories that have come out that point to there being cause for concern. I don’t think the issue is with MPs being anti-Semitic - it’s in other areas of the party where allegations have been made. Some of Labour’s Jewish MPs (e.g. Luciana Berger) have been on the receiving end of abuse I think.
John McDonnell did say that his contingency plans for power included plans for a run on Sterling, but exchange controls were not in the manifesto, and will not be in the next one. The Young Labour movement meeting did pass a motion in favour of EC as part of financial regulation, but that is a very long way from becoming party policy.
Whether they are in the next manifesto or not, exchange controls would be unavoidable if McDonnell were to do everything else that was in the 2017 manifesto.
Will Brexit still be a live issue in 2022? I suspect it will be, in that there will be parts of the country where there are concentrated Brexit losses and therefore residual "cross-ness". And it so happens, that a lot of those seats are LibDem/Conservative fights
What do you think the Conservatives' EU policy will be in 2022? Using Boris as a guide, it will likely be in favour of membership, having had a hard Brexit ruled out by reality, and a soft Brexit ruled out by politics.
I think it extremely unlikely that either of the main two parties will have "rejoin the EU" as a policy platform in my lifetime. We have made a decision, and we will stick to it.
However, I suspect however "hard" our Brexit is now, that our relationship with the EU will deepen again over time, with us ending up with a relationship with it more like Switzerland or Norway than Canada.
And you completely discount the possibility of a second referendum?
The path to a second referendum is a narrow one.
Imagine in November 2018, Mrs May brings the Brexit (Settlement) Bill before the House of Commons. A number of Conservative (some who think we are too generous to the EU, and some who wish us to stay) and a few DUP rebels result in the Bill failing to pass. With resolution seemingly impossible (and with Corbyn's Labour Party, despite being pro-Brexit, being utterly unhelpful), Mrs May calls for a General Election to enable a new parliament to pass the damn thing. Labour, hoping to outperform similarly to 2017, comply.
In the resulting General Election pro-"Second Referendum" candidates garner a majority of seats in the House of Commons. A referendum is held in early January on whether we should accept the Deal, Leave with No Deal, or Stay in the EU.
I do not think this scenario very likely.
Me neither, and I don't think that's the scenario that will bring about a second referendum. It is likely to happen because the cabinet will remain very split about the deal. People like Boris will find it hard to support, and a second referendum will be actively offered by the government as a 'get out of jail' card by them, and as a way to confound the opposition parties.
Boris will do his 'two articles' act again and come out in support of Remain.
I disagree. I think the cabinet will be largely united behind the deal.
John McDonnell did say that his contingency plans for power included plans for a run on Sterling, but exchange controls were not in the manifesto, and will not be in the next one. The Young Labour movement meeting did pass a motion in favour of EC as part of financial regulation, but that is a very long way from becoming party policy.
Whether they are in the next manifesto or not, exchange controls would be unavoidable if McDonnell were to do everything else that was in the 2017 manifesto.
Ah! So it is Project Fear!
Of course, the whole point of Brexit was to take back control...
Democracy gives you the ability to do dumb things and people will choose to do dumb things. Mediocrity will carry, I think. It's interesting to see how it plays out.
Purely from a position of statecraft, it would be foolish not to give the people one last chance to revoke Article 50, otherwise our current treaty opt-outs will be gone forever. Despite what May says now, I think she'll go for it once it can no longer be said that it undermines our negotiating position.
Despite what May says now is the crucial point.There must be considerable concern in a large elements of the conservative party , that she might go for the referendum option of governing once again .
It would actually be quite a neat way to get rid of her. She could hold the referendum between the deal and Remain but stay fairly neutral. Then when Remain wins, she can resign on the basis that her deal obviously wasn't good enough to convince the people. An exact replay of Cameron's fate.
Then of course Leave backing Tories and UKIP would start the campaign for a third referendum the very next day on that scenario
John McDonnell did say that his contingency plans for power included plans for a run on Sterling, but exchange controls were not in the manifesto, and will not be in the next one. The Young Labour movement meeting did pass a motion in favour of EC as part of financial regulation, but that is a very long way from becoming party policy.
Whether they are in the next manifesto or not, exchange controls would be unavoidable if McDonnell were to do everything else that was in the 2017 manifesto.
Ah! So it is Project Fear!
Of course, the whole point of Brexit was to take back control...
Indeed, that's why the danger of an extremist Labour government is so worrying. We won't be able to fall back on the safety net of the EU preventing, inter alia, McDonnell attacking the free movement of capital, or wasting taxpayers' money on 'state aid'. Taking back control is fine, if it's exercised responsibly, but disastrous if it's not.
The Huff Post says that Shawcroft did recommend one case of alleged anti-semitism for investigation.
I used to read Shawcroft's regular column in Labour Briefing. It was certainly fairly left wing but I do not recall it being anti-semitic.
If it’s true that this story is fake news, then that just adds to the sense among Corbynistas that the MSM can’t be trusted. A shame, because it does seem from many of the stories that have come out in the last two years or so there is a problem with anti-semitism in the party.
TA What are the main accusations ? Are there any MPs ?
I don’t think there any are one or two specific allegations, it’s more a series of stories that have come out that point to there being cause for concern. I don’t think the issue is with MPs being anti-Semitic - it’s in other areas of the party where allegations have been made. Some of Labour’s Jewish MPs (e.g. Luciana Berger) have been on the receiving end of abuse I think.
Thanks TA much appreciated .If that abuse to the MP was from Labour members obviously needs to be dealt with.
"Projections on the proposed new boundaries have the system biased even more to the blue team."
Gerrymandering UK style!
Maybe you should look up how the Electoral Commission works.
I suggest you aren't credulous – the review was requested by the Conservative Party.
The roll is years overdue - the review process is independent. Grow up.
Good grief some people take blogs too seriously.
It appears I was (partly) wrong. My sense was that this was requested by Cameron then kicked into the long grass when the Liberals rebelled (during the coalition years).
Not sure why that, right or wrong, deserves such a rude response. Maybe go for a quiet lie down 'Felix'.
Because you’re spreading fake news about it being gerrymandered by the Tories
I am obviously the first person in politicalbetting.com history to be wrong about something.
The Huff Post says that Shawcroft did recommend one case of alleged anti-semitism for investigation.
I used to read Shawcroft's regular column in Labour Briefing. It was certainly fairly left wing but I do not recall it being anti-semitic.
If it’s true that this story is fake news, then that just adds to the sense among Corbynistas that the MSM can’t be trusted. A shame, because it does seem from many of the stories that have come out in the last two years or so there is a problem with anti-semitism in the party.
TA What are the main accusations ? Are there any MPs ?
I don’t think there any are one or two specific allegations, it’s more a series of stories that have come out that point to there being cause for concern. I don’t think the issue is with MPs being anti-Semitic - it’s in other areas of the party where allegations have been made. Some of Labour’s Jewish MPs (e.g. Luciana Berger) have been on the receiving end of abuse I think.
Certainly Berger does get some very anti-semitic tweets, and there is a rather antisemitic strand of both Right and Left wing opinion*. How systematic and how it should be dealt with within the party are legitimate areas to discuss. As Shawcross was elected chair of the disciplinary panel (with a significant majority) after a longstanding previous incumbent, then it is quite reasonable to have a review of procedures before progressing investigations further.
After all the criticism on here over how alleged sexual misbehaviour has been dealt with by the panel previously, surely a pause for thought in order to ensure fair investigation is a very laudable?
John McDonnell did say that his contingency plans for power included plans for a run on Sterling, but exchange controls were not in the manifesto, and will not be in the next one. The Young Labour movement meeting did pass a motion in favour of EC as part of financial regulation, but that is a very long way from becoming party policy.
Whether they are in the next manifesto or not, exchange controls would be unavoidable if McDonnell were to do everything else that was in the 2017 manifesto.
Ah! So it is Project Fear!
Of course, the whole point of Brexit was to take back control...
Indeed, that's why the danger of an extremist Labour government is so worrying. We won't be able to fall back on the safety net of the EU preventing, inter alia, McDonnell attacking the free movement of capital, or wasting taxpayers' money on 'state aid'. Taking back control is fine, if it's exercised responsibly, but disastrous if it's not.
If that is what the voters want, then Corbynism is what they shall have.
It is one reason that I think the Tories will in time change their mind again over EU membership.
Democracy gives you the ability to do dumb things and people will choose to do dumb things. Mediocrity will carry, I think. It's interesting to see how it plays out.
Purely from a position of statecraft, it would be foolish not to give the people one last chance to revoke Article 50, otherwise our current treaty opt-outs will be gone forever. Despite what May says now, I think she'll go for it once it can no longer be said that it undermines our negotiating position.
Despite what May says now is the crucial point.There must be considerable concern in a large elements of the conservative party , that she might go for the referendum option of governing once again .
It would actually be quite a neat way to get rid of her. She could hold the referendum between the deal and Remain but stay fairly neutral. Then when Remain wins, she can resign on the basis that her deal obviously wasn't good enough to convince the people. An exact replay of Cameron's fate.
I disagree. I think the cabinet will be largely united behind the deal.
. The Withdrawal Agreement, yes. The Relationship agreements in the years after Brexit and the "transition" will be interesting. It is going to be painful.
Will Brexit still be a live issue in 2022? I suspect it will be, in that there will be parts of the country where there are concentrated Brexit losses and therefore residual "cross-ness". And it so happens, that a lot of those seats are LibDem/Conservative fights
What do you think the Conservatives' EU policy will be in 2022? Using Boris as a guide, it will likely be in favour of membership, having had a hard Brexit ruled out by reality, and a soft Brexit ruled out by politics.
I think it extremely unlikely that either of the main two parties will have "rejoin the EU" as a policy platform in my lifetime. We have made a decision, and we will stick to it.
However, I suspect however "hard" our Brexit is now, that our relationship with the EU will deepen again over time, with us ending up with a relationship with it more like Switzerland or Norway than Canada.
And you completely discount the possibility of a second referendum?
The path to a second referendum is a narrow one.
Imagine in November 2018, Mrs May brings the Brexit (Settlement) Bill before the House of Commons. A number of Conservative (some who think we are too generous to the EU, and some who wish us to stay) and a few DUP rebels result in the Bill failing to pass. With resolution seemingly impossible (and with Corbyn's Labour Party, despite being pro-Brexit, being utterly unhelpful), Mrs May calls for a General Election to enable a new parliament to pass the damn thing. Labour, hoping to outperform similarly to 2017, comply.
In the resulting General Election pro-"Second Referendum" candidates garner a majority of seats in the House of Commons. A referendum is held in early January on whether we should accept the Deal, Leave with No Deal, or Stay in the EU.
I do not think this scenario very likely.
Me neither, and I don't think that's the scenario that will bring about a second referendum. It is likely to happen because the cabinet will remain very split about the deal. People like Boris will find it hard to support, and a second referendum will be actively offered by the government as a 'get out of jail' card by them, and as a way to confound the opposition parties.
Boris will do his 'two articles' act again and come out in support of Remain.
I disagree. I think the cabinet will be largely united behind the deal.
Cabinet agreed on type of Brexit deal desired as early as last January, according to Fall Out. Everything else is just bluster....
WG forgets that Govt is about more than the relationship with the EU. Of course the cabinet will back the deal.
Cabinet agreed on type of Brexit deal desired as early as last January, according to Fall Out. Everything else is just bluster....
WG forgets that Govt is about more than the relationship with the EU. Of course the cabinet will back the deal.
The cabinet didn't agree on what they wanted from the EU relationship and Philip Hammond's interview with DIe Welt this week shows they are nowhere near the starting point.
Will Brexit still be a live issue in 2022? I suspect it will be, in that there will be parts of the country where there are concentrated Brexit losses and therefore residual "cross-ness". And it so happens, that a lot of those seats are LibDem/Conservative fights
What do you think the Conservatives' EU policy will be in 2022? Using Boris as a guide, it will likely be in favour of membership, having had a hard Brexit ruled out by reality, and a soft Brexit ruled out by politics.
I think it extremely unlikely that either of the main two parties will have "rejoin the EU" as a policy platform in my lifetime. We have made a decision, and we will stick to it.
However, I suspect however "hard" our Brexit is now, that our relationship with the EU will deepen again over time, with us ending up with a relationship with it more like Switzerland or Norway than Canada.
And you completely discount the possibility of a second referendum?
The path to a second referendum is a narrow one.
Imagine in November 2018, Mrs May brings the Brexit (Settlement) Bill before the House of Commons. A number of Conservative (some who think we are too generous to the EU, and some who wish us to stay) and a few DUP rebels result in the Bill failing to pass. With resolution seemingly impossible (and with Corbyn's Labour Party, despite being pro-Brexit, being utterly unhelpful), Mrs May calls for a General Election to enable a new parliament to pass the damn thing. Labour, hoping to outperform similarly to 2017, comply.
In the resulting General Election pro-"Second Referendum" candidates garner a majority of seats in the House of Commons. A referendum is held in early January on whether we should accept the Deal, Leave with No Deal, or Stay in the EU.
I do not think this scenario very likely.
Me neither, and I don't think that's the scenario that will bring about a second referendum. It is likely to happen because the cabinet will remain very split about the deal. People like Boris will find it hard to support, and a second referendum will be actively offered by the government as a 'get out of jail' card by them, and as a way to confound the opposition parties.
Boris will do his 'two articles' act again and come out in support of Remain.
I disagree. I think the cabinet will be largely united behind the deal.
If polls are 60-40 in favour of Remain?
The party including the rebels backed the government in todays three votes on the withdrawal bill
Cabinet agreed on type of Brexit deal desired as early as last January, according to Fall Out. Everything else is just bluster....
WG forgets that Govt is about more than the relationship with the EU. Of course the cabinet will back the deal.
The cabinet didn't agree on what they wanted from the EU relationship and Philip Hammond's interview with DIe Welt this week shows they are nowhere near the starting point.
Chatham house and Florence speeches suggest otherwise...
"Projections on the proposed new boundaries have the system biased even more to the blue team."
Gerrymandering UK style!
Maybe you should look up how the Electoral Commission works.
I suggest you aren't credulous – the review was requested by the Conservative Party.
The roll is years overdue - the review process is independent. Grow up.
Good grief some people take blogs too seriously.
It appears I was (partly) wrong. My sense was that this was requested by Cameron then kicked into the long grass when the Liberals rebelled (during the coalition years).
Not sure why that, right or wrong, deserves such a rude response. Maybe go for a quiet lie down 'Felix'.
Because you’re spreading fake news about it being gerrymandered by the Tories
I am obviously the first person in politicalbetting.com history to be wrong about something.
We are all wrong sometimes but accept it and move on, if necessary with an apology
"Projections on the proposed new boundaries have the system biased even more to the blue team."
Gerrymandering UK style!
Maybe you should look up how the Electoral Commission works.
I suggest you aren't credulous – the review was requested by the Conservative Party.
The roll is years overdue - the review process is independent. Grow up.
Good grief some people take blogs too seriously.
It appears I was (partly) wrong. My sense was that this was requested by Cameron then kicked into the long grass when the Liberals rebelled (during the coalition years).
Not sure why that, right or wrong, deserves such a rude response. Maybe go for a quiet lie down 'Felix'.
Because you’re spreading fake news about it being gerrymandered by the Tories
I am obviously the first person in politicalbetting.com history to be wrong about something.
Bad luck. The usual preferred option at this point is to come back under a new username.
"Projections on the proposed new boundaries have the system biased even more to the blue team."
Gerrymandering UK style!
Maybe you should look up how the Electoral Commission works.
I suggest you aren't credulous – the review was requested by the Conservative Party.
The roll is years overdue - the review process is independent. Grow up.
Good grief some people take blogs too seriously.
It appears I was (partly) wrong. My sense was that this was requested by Cameron then kicked into the long grass when the Liberals rebelled (during the coalition years).
Not sure why that, right or wrong, deserves such a rude response. Maybe go for a quiet lie down 'Felix'.
Because you’re spreading fake news about it being gerrymandered by the Tories
I am obviously the first person in politicalbetting.com history to be wrong about something.
Bad luck. The usual preferred option at this point is to come back under a new username.
Will Brexit still be a live issue in 2022? I suspect it will be, in that there will be parts of the country where there are concentrated Brexit losses and therefore residual "cross-ness". And it so happens, that a lot of those seats are LibDem/Conservative fights
What do you think the Conservatives' EU policy will be in 2022? Using Boris as a guide, it will likely be in favour of membership, having had a hard Brexit ruled out by reality, and a soft Brexit ruled out by politics.
I think it extremely unlikely that either of the main two parties will have "rejoin the EU" as a policy platform in my lifetime. We have made a decision, and we will stick to it.
However, I suspect however "hard" our Brexit is now, that our relationship with the EU will deepen again over time, with us ending up with a relationship with it more like Switzerland or Norway than Canada.
On balance I think you are right, but I wouldn't put it at "extremely unlikely". There are reasons why the EU exists and why we were members of it. Those reasons don't disappear just because we ticked a Leave box in a referendum. I don't think there is an outcome acceptable to the UK that doesn't involve a close relationship with the EU, which will be on their terms. Rule taking means giving up our influence and in some sense our sovereignty, which was the whole point of leaving in the first place. I am not sure we are prepared to do that. The EU does work better for us as the tyre hits the road. Against that, there will be a very big inertia against revisiting EU membership. Democracy gives you the ability to do dumb things and people will choose to do dumb things. Mediocrity will carry, I think. It's interesting to see how it plays out.
It is now clear that the EU strategy is stick and carrot to keep us in. They want to keep us in for budget, economic, and power wrt rest of world reasons.
They will hug us close and make it very easy for us to reverse the EUREF decision. On the other hand, they will make it very difficult to achieve a satisfactory BREXIT and will point out the difficulties (which they will insist are of our own making).
Come back to nurse for fear of worse. How will this play with the British public who are bored and confused with the issue? To someone with a superficial interest, it may well be very appealing.
"Projections on the proposed new boundaries have the system biased even more to the blue team."
Gerrymandering UK style!
Maybe you should look up how the Electoral Commission works.
I suggest you aren't credulous – the review was requested by the Conservative Party.
The roll is years overdue - the review process is independent. Grow up.
Good grief some people take blogs too seriously.
It appears I was (partly) wrong. My sense was that this was requested by Cameron then kicked into the long grass when the Liberals rebelled (during the coalition years).
Not sure why that, right or wrong, deserves such a rude response. Maybe go for a quiet lie down 'Felix'.
Because you’re spreading fake news about it being gerrymandered by the Tories
I am obviously the first person in politicalbetting.com history to be wrong about something.
Bad luck. The usual preferred option at this point is to come back under a new username.
Perhaps one not incorporating the word "Nazi". I believe "Scunthorpe" is available.
John McDonnell did say that his contingency plans for power included plans for a run on Sterling, but exchange controls were not in the manifesto, and will not be in the next one. The Young Labour movement meeting did pass a motion in favour of EC as part of financial regulation, but that is a very long way from becoming party policy.
Whether they are in the next manifesto or not, exchange controls would be unavoidable if McDonnell were to do everything else that was in the 2017 manifesto.
Ah! So it is Project Fear!
Of course, the whole point of Brexit was to take back control...
Indeed, that's why the danger of an extremist Labour government is so worrying. We won't be able to fall back on the safety net of the EU preventing, inter alia, McDonnell attacking the free movement of capital, or wasting taxpayers' money on 'state aid'. Taking back control is fine, if it's exercised responsibly, but disastrous if it's not.
If that is what the voters want, then Corbynism is what they shall have.
It is one reason that I think the Tories will in time change their mind again over EU membership.
Why? A Corbyn government would equally allow for a Thatcherite government to succeed it
Democracy gives you the ability to do dumb things and people will choose to do dumb things. Mediocrity will carry, I think. It's interesting to see how it plays out.
Purely from a position of statecraft, it would be foolish not to give the people one last chance to revoke Article 50, otherwise our current treaty opt-outs will be gone forever. Despite what May says now, I think she'll go for it once it can no longer be said that it undermines our negotiating position.
Despite what May says now is the crucial point.There must be considerable concern in a large elements of the conservative party , that she might go for the referendum option of governing once again .
It would actually be quite a neat way to get rid of her. She could hold the referendum between the deal and Remain but stay fairly neutral. Then when Remain wins, she can resign on the basis that her deal obviously wasn't good enough to convince the people. An exact replay of Cameron's fate.
Then of course Leave backing Tories and UKIP would start the campaign for a third referendum the very next day on that scenario
They'd be truly irrelevant at that point.
Of course they wouldn't, they would almost certainly have won over 40% and having already won the first referendum and had that snatched from them would be even more motivated than before
Will Brexit still be a live issue in 2022? I suspect it will be, in that there will be parts of the country where there are concentrated Brexit losses and therefore residual "cross-ness". And it so happens, that a lot of those seats are LibDem/Conservative fights
What do you think the Conservatives' EU policy will be in 2022? Using Boris as a guide, it will likely be in favour of membership, having had a hard Brexit ruled out by reality, and a soft Brexit ruled out by politics.
I think it extremely unlikely that either of the main two parties will have "rejoin the EU" as a policy platform in my lifetime. We have made a decision, and we will stick to it.
However, I suspect however "hard" our Brexit is now, that our relationship with the EU will deepen again over time, with us ending up with a relationship with it more like Switzerland or Norway than Canada.
On balance I think you are right, but I wouldn't put it at "extremely unlikely". There are reasons why the EU exists and why we were members of it. Those reasons don't disappear just because we ticked a Leave box in a referendum. I don't think there is an outcome acceptable to
It is now clear that the EU strategy is stick and carrot to keep us in. They want to keep us in for budget, economic, and power wrt rest of world reasons.
They will hug us close and make it very easy for us to reverse the EUREF decision. On the other hand, they will make it very difficult to achieve a satisfactory BREXIT and will point out the difficulties (which they will insist are of our own making).
Come back to nurse for fear of worse. How will this play with the British public who are bored and confused with the issue? To someone with a superficial interest, it may well be very appealing.
I don't think that is the EU27 goal. The calls for a second referendum are British ones, not from the EU.
They merely are trying to maximise their advantage in terms of finance, trade and regulation, as well as look after the interests of their citizens resident here. They are sad that we are leaving, but not obstructing Brexit. Indeed Barnier has insisted on a shorter transition period. They are just demonstrating that cold winds blow outside the walls for us as a third country.
Democracy gives you the ability to do dumb things and people will choose to do dumb things. Mediocrity will carry, I think. It's interesting to see how it plays out.
Purely from a position of statecraft, it would be foolish not to give the people one last chance to revoke Article 50, otherwise our current treaty opt-outs will be gone forever. Despite what May says now, I think she'll go for it once it can no longer be said that it undermines our negotiating position.
Despite what May says now is the crucial point.There must be considerable concern in a large elements of the conservative party , that she might go for the referendum option of governing once again .
It would actually be quite a neat way to get rid of her. She could hold the referendum between the deal and Remain but stay fairly neutral. Then when Remain wins, she can resign on the basis that her deal obviously wasn't good enough to convince the people. An exact replay of Cameron's fate.
What if Leave wins?
I think Dan Hannan put it well.
The EU could kill Leave right now (and probably for good) by putting an improved looser deal on the table.
Will Brexit still be a live issue in 2022? I suspect it will be, in that there will be parts of the country where there are concentrated Brexit losses and therefore residual "cross-ness". And it so happens, that a lot of those seats are LibDem/Conservative fights
What do you think the Conservatives' EU policy will be in 2022? Using Boris as a guide, it will likely be in favour of membership, having had a hard Brexit ruled out by reality, and a soft Brexit ruled out by politics.
I think it extremely unlikely that either of the main two parties will have "rejoin the EU" as a policy platform in my lifetime. We have made a decision, and we will stick to it.
However, I suspect however "hard" our Brexit is now, that our relationship with the EU will deepen again over time, with us ending up with a relationship with it more like Switzerland or Norway than Canada.
On balance I think you are right, but I wouldn't put it at "extremely unlikely". There are reasons why the EU exists and why we were members of it. Those reasons don't disappear just because we ticked a Leave box in a referendum. I don't think there is an outcome acceptable to
It is now clear that the EU strategy is stick and carrot to keep us in. They want to keep us in for budget, economic, and power wrt rest of world reasons.
They will hug us close and make it very easy for us to reverse the EUREF decision. On the other hand, they will make it very difficult to achieve a satisfactory BREXIT and will point out the difficulties (which they will insist are of our own making).
Come back to nurse for fear of worse. How will this play with the British public who are bored and confused with the issue? To someone with a superficial interest, it may well be very appealing.
I don't think that is the EU27 goal. The calls for a second referendum are British ones, not from the EU.
They merely are trying to maximise their advantage in terms of finance, trade and regulation, as well as look after the interests of their citizens resident here. They are sad that we are leaving, but not obstructing Brexit. Indeed Barnier has insisted on a shorter transition period. They are just demonstrating that cold winds blow outside the walls for us as a third country.
By a 1% margin which tells us nothing. Plus of course most final EU referendum polls had Remain ahead
Remain of course won the referendum by 4 per cent according to you gov in the poll they issued at 10pm on 23 June 2016? If they are as accurate now leave is still ahead in Wales!
And apparently by a huge margin of 44 to 43 a majority of Welsh voters want a second referendum - according to the same pollster who got the first one wrong. Yes - really convincing!
Looks to me that opinions in Wales are pretty much unchanged from where they were on referendum day - allowing for the Margin of error and their error anyway compared to the real result.
By a 1% margin which tells us nothing. Plus of course most final EU referendum polls had Remain ahead
Remain of course won the referendum by 4 per cent according to you gov in the poll they issued at 10pm on 23 June 2016? If they are as accurate now leave is still ahead in Wales!
And apparently by a huge margin of 44 to 43 a majority of Welsh voters want a second referendum - according to the same pollster who got the first one wrong. Yes - really convincing!
Looks to me that opinions in Wales are pretty much unchanged from where they were on referendum day - allowing for the Margin of error and their error anyway compared to the real result.
Will Brexit still be a live issue in 2022? I suspect it will be, in that there will be parts of the country where there are concentrated Brexit losses and therefore residual "cross-ness". And it so happens, that a lot of those seats are LibDem/Conservative fights
.
I think it extremely unlikely that either of the main two parties will have "rejoin the EU" as a policy platform in my lifetime. We have made a decision, and we will stick to it.
However, I suspect however "hard" our Brexit is now, that our relationship with the EU will deepen again over time, with us ending up with a relationship with it more like Switzerland or Norway than Canada.
On balance I think you are right, but I wouldn't put it at "extremely unlikely". There are reasons why the EU exists and why we were members of it. Those reasons don't disappear just because we ticked a Leave box in a referendum. I don't think there is an outcome acceptable to
It is now clear that the EU strategy is stick and carrot to keep us in. They want to keep us in for budget, economic, and power wrt rest of world reasons.
They will hug us close and make it very easy for us to reverse the EUREF decision. On the other hand, they will make it very difficult to achieve a satisfactory BREXIT and will point out the difficulties (which they will insist are of our own making).
Come back to nurse for fear of worse. How will this play with the British public who are bored and confused with the issue? To someone with a superficial interest, it may well be very appealing.
I don't think that is the EU27 goal. The calls for a second referendum are British ones, not from the EU.
They merely are trying to maximise their advantage in terms of finance, trade and regulation, as well as look after the interests of their citizens resident here. They are sad that we are leaving, but not obstructing Brexit. Indeed Barnier has insisted on a shorter transition period. They are just demonstrating that cold winds blow outside the walls for us as a third country.
I think there will almost certainly be a Rejoin campaign in the 2020s but I don't expect it to command more than 25-35% support. It won't be official Labour Party policy.
However, I do think that Labour will be obliged to try to unpick at least part of the "Tory" Brexit settlement, to satisfy their base.
The most drastic move there would be to abolish the DfIT and rejoin the customs union in full. Or, they may simply sign up to a lot more EU programmes and rights from outside. Possibly looking at Verhofstadht's individual "opt-in" for EU citizenship as well.
I think there will almost certainly be a Rejoin campaign in the 2020s but I don't expect it to command more than 25-35% support. It won't be official Labour Party policy.
However, I do think that Labour will be obliged to try to unpick at least part of the "Tory" Brexit settlement, to satisfy their base.
The most drastic move there would be to abolish the DfIT and rejoin the customs union in full. Or, they may simply sign up to a lot more EU programmes and rights from outside. Possibly looking at Verhofstadht's individual "opt-in" for EU citizenship as well.
If we actually Brexit, I wouldn't expect the UK as a whole ever to rejoin, but for it to be done piecemeal as the UK breaks up.
Will Brexit still be a live issue in 2022? I suspect it will be, in that there will be parts of the country where there are concentrated Brexit losses and therefore residual "cross-ness". And it so happens, that a lot of those seats are LibDem/Conservative fights
.
.
It is now clear that the EU strategy is stick and carrot to keep us in. They want to keep us in for budget, economic, and power wrt rest of world reasons.
They will hug us close and make it very easy for us to reverse the EUREF decision. On the other hand, they will make it very difficult to achieve a satisfactory BREXIT and will point out the difficulties (which they will insist are of our own making).
Come back to nurse for fear of worse. How will this play with the British public who are bored and confused with the issue? To someone with a superficial interest, it may well be very appealing.
I don't think that is the EU27 goal. The calls for a second referendum are British ones, not from the EU.
They merely are trying to maximise their advantage in terms of finance, trade and regulation, as well as look after the interests of their citizens resident here. They are sad that we are leaving, but not obstructing Brexit. Indeed Barnier has insisted on a shorter transition period. They are just demonstrating that cold winds blow outside the walls for us as a third country.
They can't call for a second referendum. That would make them seem to be interfering in a mess of our own making.
Why "demonstrate that cold winds blow outside the walls for us as a third country" if not to persuade us to stay in?
That's why I'm convinced that the EUs goal is to keep us in.
Luckily, the UK cares more about democracy than it does about Brussels and the 'Project'.
The UK is 65+ million people, the vast majority of whom don't give a damn about Brussels, the "Project" or democracy. They read Hello magazine, watch Big Brother and are almost totally disengaged from politics until election time when they vote mainly based on inertia or chatter with mates. There isn't a monolithic "UK" that cares about anything.
But my point wasn't about the UK. My point was that the EU's goal is to keep us in. Whether they will succeed I don't know. But that is what they are trying to do.
Will Brexit still be a live issue in 2022? I suspect it will be, in that there will be parts of the country where there are concentrated Brexit losses and therefore residual "cross-ness". And it so happens, that a lot of those seats are LibDem/Conservative fights
What do you think the Conservatives' EU policy will be in 2022? Using Boris as a guide, it will likely be in favour of membership, having had a hard Brexit ruled out by reality, and a soft Brexit ruled out by politics.
I think it extremely unlikely that either of the main two parties will have "rejoin the EU" as a policy platform in my lifetime. We have made a decision, and we will stick to it.
However, I suspect however "hard" our Brexit is now, that our relationship with the EU will deepen again over time, with us ending up with a relationship with it more like Switzerland or Norway than Canada.
On balance I think you are right,
It is now clear that the EU strategy is stick and carrot to keep us in. They want to keep us in for budget, economic, and power wrt rest of world reasons.
They will hug us close and make it very easy for us to reverse the EUREF decision. On the other hand, they will make it very difficult to achieve a satisfactory BREXIT and will point out the difficulties (which they will insist are of our own making).
Come back to nurse for fear of worse. How will this play with the British public who are bored and confused with the issue? To someone with a superficial interest, it may well be very appealing.
I don't think that is the EU27 goal. The calls for a second referendum are British ones, not from the EU.
They merely are trying to maximise their advantage in terms of finance, trade and regulation, as well as look after the interests of their citizens resident here. They are sad that we are leaving, but not obstructing Brexit. Indeed Barnier has insisted on a shorter transition period. They are just demonstrating that cold winds blow outside the walls for us as a third country.
I think there will almost certainly be a Rejoin campaign in the 2020s but I don't expect it to command more than 25-35% support. It won't be official Labour Party policy.
However, I do think that Labour will be obliged to try to unpick at least part of the "Tory" Brexit settlement, to satisfy their base.
The most drastic move there would be to abolish the DfIT and rejoin the customs union in full. Or, they may simply sign up to a lot more EU programmes and rights from outside. Possibly looking at Verhofstadht's individual "opt-in" for EU citizenship as well.
I don't see how a Govt. of any hue could acknowledge the "opt-in". What if (by way of a crazy example) the EU decided to decriminalise drugs. Could someone ignore UK drugs legislation by showing a burgundy passport and say "I only obey EU laws...."?
John McDonnell did say that his contingency plans for power included plans for a run on Sterling, but exchange controls were not in the manifesto, and will not be in the next one. The Young Labour movement meeting did pass a motion in favour of EC as part of financial regulation, but that is a very long way from becoming party policy.
Whether they are in the next manifesto or not, exchange controls would be unavoidable if McDonnell were to do everything else that was in the 2017 manifesto.
Ah! So it is Project Fear! Of course, the whole point of Brexit was to take back control...
Indeed, that's why the danger of an extremist Labour government is so worrying. We won't be able to fall back on the safety net of the EU preventing, inter alia, McDonnell attacking the free movement of capital, or wasting taxpayers' money on 'state aid'. Taking back control is fine, if it's exercised responsibly, but disastrous if it's not.
In the same way, a lot of people are worried about "taking back control" Tory fashion.
And I don`t think anybody could claim that this government, with May, Johnson, Gove, Davies, Fox etc is in any way a responsible one.
It wouldn't surprise me greatly if the EU came up with a revised deal to revoke Article 50 and have a second referendum on a new deal that allowed us some control on freedom of movement.
I think there will almost certainly be a Rejoin campaign in the 2020s but I don't expect it to command more than 25-35% support. It won't be official Labour Party policy.
However, I do think that Labour will be obliged to try to unpick at least part of the "Tory" Brexit settlement, to satisfy their base.
The most drastic move there would be to abolish the DfIT and rejoin the customs union in full. Or, they may simply sign up to a lot more EU programmes and rights from outside. Possibly looking at Verhofstadht's individual "opt-in" for EU citizenship as well.
If we actually Brexit, I wouldn't expect the UK as a whole ever to rejoin, but for it to be done piecemeal as the UK breaks up.
Wrong on both counts. Ironically the UK has arguably strengthened post Brexit e.g. the SNP lost half their MPs in June, while if the UK broke up England and Wales would be even less likely to rejoin the EU given they voted about 55% 45% Leave rather than 52% 48% Leave as was the case across the UK as a whole
I think there will almost certainly be a Rejoin campaign in the 2020s but I don't expect it to command more than 25-35% support. It won't be official Labour Party policy.
However, I do think that Labour will be obliged to try to unpick at least part of the "Tory" Brexit settlement, to satisfy their base.
The most drastic move there would be to abolish the DfIT and rejoin the customs union in full. Or, they may simply sign up to a lot more EU programmes and rights from outside. Possibly looking at Verhofstadht's individual "opt-in" for EU citizenship as well.
If we actually Brexit, I wouldn't expect the UK as a whole ever to rejoin, but for it to be done piecemeal as the UK breaks up.
Wrong on both counts. Ironically the UK has arguably strengthened post Brexit e.g. the SNP lost half their MPs in June, while if the UK broke up England and Wales would be even less likely to rejoin the EU given they voted about 55% 45% Leave rather than 52% 48% Leave as was the case across the UK as a whole
An election isn't a census that records people's fixed religious affiliation. Opinions and voting patterns do change, sometimes wildly, in response to events.
I think there will almost certainly be a Rejoin campaign in the 2020s but I don't expect it to command more than 25-35% support. It won't be official Labour Party policy.
However, I do think that Labour will be obliged to try to unpick at least part of the "Tory" Brexit settlement, to satisfy their base.
The most drastic move there would be to abolish the DfIT and rejoin the customs union in full. Or, they may simply sign up to a lot more EU programmes and rights from outside. Possibly looking at Verhofstadht's individual "opt-in" for EU citizenship as well.
If we actually Brexit, I wouldn't expect the UK as a whole ever to rejoin, but for it to be done piecemeal as the UK breaks up.
Your position is that full political union for the UK inside the EU is inevitable and if it isn't then the dissolution of the UK is just punishment.
In the same way, a lot of people are worried about "taking back control" Tory fashion.
And I don`t think anybody could claim that this government, with May, Johnson, Gove, Davies, Fox etc is in any way a responsible one.
It's a perfectly responsible government, albeit very poor on media engagement and unfortunately prone to ministerial gaffes. It seems to be handling Brexit reasonably well in the nightmarish circumstances, and it has a Chancellor who is the epitome of responsible finances. Of course, without a majority it can't do very much about longer-term problems, but at least it's not exacerbating them. Overall, it's slightly better than the average amongst governments of the last half-century, but obviously not in the same league as Cameron's two governments. But they were quite exceptionally good.
It wouldn't surprise me greatly if the EU came up with a revised deal to revoke Article 50 and have a second referendum on a new deal that allowed us some control on freedom of movement.
They would if they could. Or should.
The EU is certainly weaker without the U.K. Its difficult to see it expanding now geographically, and it’s lost the member pushing for deepening of the single market.
The EU now resembles a club for Germany to play economic hegemon. That doesn’t seem partiularly compelling as a long term project.
I think there will almost certainly be a Rejoin campaign in the 2020s but I don't expect it to command more than 25-35% support. It won't be official Labour Party policy.
However, I do think that Labour will be obliged to try to unpick at least part of the "Tory" Brexit settlement, to satisfy their base.
The most drastic move there would be to abolish the DfIT and rejoin the customs union in full. Or, they may simply sign up to a lot more EU programmes and rights from outside. Possibly looking at Verhofstadht's individual "opt-in" for EU citizenship as well.
I don't see how a Govt. of any hue could acknowledge the "opt-in". What if (by way of a crazy example) the EU decided to decriminalise drugs. Could someone ignore UK drugs legislation by showing a burgundy passport and say "I only obey EU laws...."?
I think it will be somewhat simpler than that and involving purchasing the passport and extra rights for a fee. Sort of like a dual citizenship.
This can then be used as a Trojan horse to rejoin in the long term if a lot of Brits sign up to it (ah, but 60% of you hold EU passports anyway, so how bout it?)
They can't call for a second referendum. That would make them seem to be interfering in a mess of our own making.
Why "demonstrate that cold winds blow outside the walls for us as a third country" if not to persuade us to stay in?
That's why I'm convinced that the EUs goal is to keep us in.
Have a chat with David Cameron and see if he agrees with you. If that were their goal, he would still be our PM.
The EU, like the rest of us, didn't expect a Leave vote. If they had, they would have have given him a much better deal.
Many in the EU thought they gave Cameron an amazing deal.
The difference in perceptions are vast.
We're still seeing it today from Tusk and Kurz.
The EU now know that the deal they gave us wasn't good enough. They might try with a better deal at the right moment to tempt us to call the whole Brexit thing off.
In the same way, a lot of people are worried about "taking back control" Tory fashion.
And I don`t think anybody could claim that this government, with May, Johnson, Gove, Davies, Fox etc is in any way a responsible one.
It's a perfectly responsible government, albeit very poor on media engagement and unfortunately prone to ministerial gaffes. It seems to be handling Brexit reasonably well in the nightmarish circumstances, and it has a Chancellor who is the epitome of responsible finances. Of course, without a majority it can't do very much about longer-term problems, but at least it's not exacerbating them. Overall, it's slightly better than the average amongst governments of the last half-century, but obviously not in the same league as Cameron's two governments. But they were quite exceptionally good.
You must be joking. Or perhaps you just think the standard is incredibly low.
May has handles Brexit appallingly, at least from the perspective of One Nation Tory-ism. Perhaps the optics look better through the lens of intra-Tory shenanigans.
Hammond is a plodder, there is no real domestic policy (and what ideas percolate through are bananas eg grammar schools). Oh, and the Foreign Secretary is an international joke. I could go on...
In the same way, a lot of people are worried about "taking back control" Tory fashion.
And I don`t think anybody could claim that this government, with May, Johnson, Gove, Davies, Fox etc is in any way a responsible one.
It's a perfectly responsible government, albeit very poor on media engagement and unfortunately prone to ministerial gaffes. It seems to be handling Brexit reasonably well in the nightmarish circumstances, and it has a Chancellor who is the epitome of responsible finances. Of course, without a majority it can't do very much about longer-term problems, but at least it's not exacerbating them. Overall, it's slightly better than the average amongst governments of the last half-century, but obviously not in the same league as Cameron's two governments. But they were quite exceptionally good.
I think it's on a par with the 2015-2016 Cameron administration.
It's just May is really crap at politics. And Hammond is no better.
They can't call for a second referendum. That would make them seem to be interfering in a mess of our own making.
Why "demonstrate that cold winds blow outside the walls for us as a third country" if not to persuade us to stay in?
That's why I'm convinced that the EUs goal is to keep us in.
Have a chat with David Cameron and see if he agrees with you. If that were their goal, he would still be our PM.
The EU, like the rest of us, didn't expect a Leave vote. If they had, they would have have given him a much better deal.
Many in the EU thought they gave Cameron an amazing deal.
The difference in perceptions are vast.
We're still seeing it today from Tusk and Kurz.
The EU now know that the deal they gave us wasn't good enough. They might try with a better deal at the right moment to tempt us to call the whole Brexit thing off.
That would potentially be a decisive move, but they just don't get it.
In the same way, a lot of people are worried about "taking back control" Tory fashion.
And I don`t think anybody could claim that this government, with May, Johnson, Gove, Davies, Fox etc is in any way a responsible one.
It's a perfectly responsible government, albeit very poor on media engagement and unfortunately prone to ministerial gaffes. It seems to be handling Brexit reasonably well in the nightmarish circumstances, and it has a Chancellor who is the epitome of responsible finances. Of course, without a majority it can't do very much about longer-term problems, but at least it's not exacerbating them. Overall, it's slightly better than the average amongst governments of the last half-century, but obviously not in the same league as Cameron's two governments. But they were quite exceptionally good.
You must be joking. Or perhaps you just think the standard is incredibly low.
May has handles Brexit appallingly, at least from the perspective of One Nation Tory-ism. Perhaps the optics look better through the lens of intra-Tory shenanigans.
Hammond is a plodder, there is no real domestic policy (and what ideas percolate through are bananas eg grammar schools). Oh, and the Foreign Secretary is an international joke. I could go on...
The standard is low. Gordon Brown, Ted Heath, Callaghan, Wilson (on the economy) all headed governments much worse than this one. Blair's record was a mixture of the very good and the disastrous, but the disaster of Iraq completely blows everything else out of the water. John Major's government was plodding, about the same overall as this one. No-one is going to claim that Douglas Home's government was much better.
As for Foreign Secretaries, yes, we have a joker at the moment, but hardly the first. I submit for your delectation Margaret Beckett and, best of all, the irredeemably comic George Brown. (Sadly, though, the Archbishop of Lima story is probably apocryphal).
I am not a Tory and I am not a Blairite. I have voted Labour for 40 years.
Anyone who has lived in a house with any kind of infestation, whether it is fleas, or mice or rats, will know how very difficult it is to get rid of the infestation.
The Labour house is currently infested with Momentum. Eventually, this infestation will have to be removed sooner or later. Because it is vile.
Ah, a man who believes in the democratic tradition of one man, one vote. So long as he is the one man with the one vote. No one else must say or believe anything that contradicts him. Long live stevef, the lord and master of the known universe... I don't think...
In the same way, a lot of people are worried about "taking back control" Tory fashion.
And I don`t think anybody could claim that this government, with May, Johnson, Gove, Davies, Fox etc is in any way a responsible one.
It's a perfectly responsible government, albeit very poor on media engagement and unfortunately prone to ministerial gaffes. It seems to be handling Brexit reasonably well in the nightmarish circumstances, and it has a Chancellor who is the epitome of responsible finances. Of course, without a majority it can't do very much about longer-term problems, but at least it's not exacerbating them. Overall, it's slightly better than the average amongst governments of the last half-century, but obviously not in the same league as Cameron's two governments. But they were quite exceptionally good.
You must be joking. Or perhaps you just think the standard is incredibly low.
May has handles Brexit appallingly, at least from the perspective of One Nation Tory-ism. Perhaps the optics look better through the lens of intra-Tory shenanigans.
Hammond is a plodder, there is no real domestic policy (and what ideas percolate through are bananas eg grammar schools). Oh, and the Foreign Secretary is an international joke. I could go on...
The standard is low. Gordon Brown, Ted Heath, Callaghan, Wilson (on the economy) all headed governments much worse than this one. Blair's record was a mixture of the very good and the disastrous, but the disaster of Iraq completely blows everything else out of the water. John Major's government was plodding, about the same overall as this one. No-one is going to claim that Douglas Home's government was much better.
As for Foreign Secretaries, yes, we have a joker at the moment, but hardly the first. I submit for your delectation Margaret Beckett and, best of all, the irredeemably comic George Brown. (Sadly, though, the Archbishop of Lima story is probably apocryphal).
What did Ma Beckett do wrong as Foreign Secretary?
I would say she was better than the perennially overrated David Miliband in that job.
In reality Labour would do better - at SNP expense.
Because......?
(P.S. Your gut feelings on the matter are not actual reasons)
It is a reason actually - and based on the SNP having been flattered by polls for several years now.The SNP now have very few safe seats and most are vulnerable to a very small swing to Labour. I will be surprised if Labour fail to gain 20 seats next time at their expense.
Mike Smithson deliberately or accidentally misses the fact that the SNP are effectively Labour seats when it comes to deciding who will become PM and form the government. So while Lab are 1 behind the Tories, Lab+SNP are 35 ahead.
That's without considering the effect of the likes of Plaid and Greens etc
Whether you have a point, or not, you clearly cannot 'count' SNP seats as *Labour* seats without also reckoning SNP votes as *Labour* votes, for purposes of any analysis.
Tartan Trots, rather than Tartan Tories.
Some of the nutters on here must have the Trots for sure, its addled their brains
Comments
In 2008 that number had risen to 45.5 million.
It appears I was (partly) wrong. My sense was that this was requested by Cameron then kicked into the long grass when the Liberals rebelled (during the coalition years).
Not sure why that, right or wrong, deserves such a rude response. Maybe go for a quiet lie down 'Felix'.
Imagine in November 2018, Mrs May brings the Brexit (Settlement) Bill before the House of Commons. A number of Conservative (some who think we are too generous to the EU, and some who wish us to stay) and a few DUP rebels result in the Bill failing to pass. With resolution seemingly impossible (and with Corbyn's Labour Party, despite being pro-Brexit, being utterly unhelpful), Mrs May calls for a General Election to enable a new parliament to pass the damn thing. Labour, hoping to outperform similarly to 2017, comply.
In the resulting General Election pro-"Second Referendum" candidates garner a majority of seats in the House of Commons. A referendum is held in early January on whether we should accept the Deal, Leave with No Deal, or Stay in the EU.
I do not think this scenario very likely.
The Huff Post says that Shawcroft did recommend one case of alleged anti-semitism for investigation.
I used to read Shawcroft's regular column in Labour Briefing. It was certainly fairly left wing but I do not recall it being anti-semitic.
Had to laugh at this:
https://twitter.com/ryanlcooper/status/953310779478028289
https://youtu.be/eKFjWR7X5dU
Boris will do his 'two articles' act again and come out in support of Remain.
Boris will do his 'two articles' act again and come out in support of Remain.
Extremely unlikely, and it would terminate Boris' political career to appear to be a turncoat like that.
John McDonnell did say that his contingency plans for power included plans for a run on Sterling, but exchange controls were not in the manifesto, and will not be in the next one. The Young Labour movement meeting did pass a motion in favour of EC as part of financial regulation, but that is a very long way from becoming party policy.
Either way though the original (years ago) complaint about bias was in seat size and OGH's analytics ignores that still.
If, in the incredibly unlikely scenario of us wishing to reverse Brexit (which we will not), we were to negotiate a revocation of Article 50, then the ones not enshrined in treaties would obviously be gone.
But I think it would be much harder for them to change the ones in the treaties. Getting EU treaties passed is an incredibly tortuous process, that rarely takes less than five or six years. I just can't see the EU going through that palava to remove our Euro opt-out. (In fact, I suspect that there are quite a few Eurozone countries that very definitely don't want us in the bloc, and who would be very resistant to that change.)
Now banning driverless trains...thats a different matter.
...But if we did want to (which we won't), then I think it would probably be achieved by a unanimous vote of the EU 27 extending the departure date indefinitely. And then in the next treaty revision (2032 or whenever), Article 50 would be made officially revokable.
But as I said, it's not going to happen.
There is no desire for it either at the top of either main party, nor is there the time to organise and hold it.
If there was to be a second referendum it wouldn't have been a second EU one, but a second SIndy one. We're not even going to have that as the timing simply didn't work, we certainly won't have an EU one.
Of course, the whole point of Brexit was to take back control...
After all the criticism on here over how alleged sexual misbehaviour has been dealt with by the panel previously, surely a pause for thought in order to ensure fair investigation is a very laudable?
*not unknown in the LDs either.
It is one reason that I think the Tories will in time change their mind again over EU membership.
The Withdrawal Agreement, yes. The Relationship agreements in the years after Brexit and the "transition" will be interesting. It is going to be painful.
WG forgets that Govt is about more than the relationship with the EU. Of course the cabinet will back the deal.
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/0aof66rdfs/WelshBarometerResults_November17_w.pdf
They will hug us close and make it very easy for us to reverse the EUREF decision. On the other hand, they will make it very difficult to achieve a satisfactory BREXIT and will point out the difficulties (which they will insist are of our own making).
Come back to nurse for fear of worse. How will this play with the British public who are bored and confused with the issue? To someone with a superficial interest, it may well be very appealing.
They merely are trying to maximise their advantage in terms of finance, trade and regulation, as well as look after the interests of their citizens resident here. They are sad that we are leaving, but not obstructing Brexit. Indeed Barnier has insisted on a shorter transition period. They are just demonstrating that cold winds blow outside the walls for us as a third country.
The EU could kill Leave right now (and probably for good) by putting an improved looser deal on the table.
But they won't.
They can't call for a second referendum. That would make them seem to be interfering in a mess of our own making.
Why "demonstrate that cold winds blow outside the walls for us as a third country" if not to persuade us to stay in?
That's why I'm convinced that the EUs goal is to keep us in.
And apparently by a huge margin of 44 to 43 a majority of Welsh voters want a second referendum - according to the same pollster who got the first one wrong. Yes - really convincing!
Looks to me that opinions in Wales are pretty much unchanged from where they were on referendum day - allowing for the Margin of error and their error anyway compared to the real result.
However, I do think that Labour will be obliged to try to unpick at least part of the "Tory" Brexit settlement, to satisfy their base.
The most drastic move there would be to abolish the DfIT and rejoin the customs union in full. Or, they may simply sign up to a lot more EU programmes and rights from outside. Possibly looking at Verhofstadht's individual "opt-in" for EU citizenship as well.
These could be in surprising places. I'd start with Yougov's model in England and that of the Populus whizz kid in Scotland.
They probably need to defend about 60 seats and attack about 40 at this stage.
But my point wasn't about the UK. My point was that the EU's goal is to keep us in. Whether they will succeed I don't know. But that is what they are trying to do.
Strong team for City against Fleetwood. Mahrez and Slimani now cuptied and Ianacho gets first start. Off to match now
And I don`t think anybody could claim that this government, with May, Johnson, Gove, Davies, Fox etc is in any way a responsible one.
It wouldn't surprise me greatly if the EU came up with a revised deal to revoke Article 50 and have a second referendum on a new deal that allowed us some control on freedom of movement.
The EU is certainly weaker without the U.K. Its difficult to see it expanding now geographically, and it’s lost the member pushing for deepening of the single market.
The EU now resembles a club for Germany to play economic hegemon. That doesn’t seem partiularly compelling as a long term project.
This can then be used as a Trojan horse to rejoin in the long term if a lot of Brits sign up to it (ah, but 60% of you hold EU passports anyway, so how bout it?)
The difference in perceptions are vast.
We're still seeing it today from Tusk and Kurz.
Or perhaps you just think the standard is incredibly low.
May has handles Brexit appallingly, at least from the perspective of One Nation Tory-ism. Perhaps the optics look better through the lens of intra-Tory shenanigans.
Hammond is a plodder, there is no real domestic policy (and what ideas percolate through are bananas eg grammar schools). Oh, and the Foreign Secretary is an international joke. I could go on...
It's just May is really crap at politics. And Hammond is no better.
That constrasts poorly with Cameron/Osborne.
As for Foreign Secretaries, yes, we have a joker at the moment, but hardly the first. I submit for your delectation Margaret Beckett and, best of all, the irredeemably comic George Brown. (Sadly, though, the Archbishop of Lima story is probably apocryphal).
I would say she was better than the perennially overrated David Miliband in that job.
Canada is close to the USA but does not have all the same rules. We will be the same.