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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It’s going to be a blue Monday for some cabinet ministers as Mrs May brings in a new order with a reshuffle
Night of the blunt knives: @ShippersUnbound reporting that Patrick McLoughlin, Justine Greening, Greg Clark and Andrea Leadsom are for the chop in a Monday reshuffle. But the big Cabinet beasts are staying put. pic.twitter.com/v3c75YYRBQ
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I can’t see an extensive reshuffle at the moment, it would be about as much fun as watching England lose by an innings. Again.
Hope Grayling's Stonehenge Tunnel gets the chop. A historian I follow on Twitter, Tom Holland, is perpetually irked and perplexed by how such a thing could be considered.
Disclaimer: Before I moved to the sandpit I lived in Salisbury and used to get stuck in that bloody traffic jam every bloody night!
On the face of it this year has few betting opportunities, but I was speaking to an LD friend last night who reckons that we will have a further GE this year. Probably the mechanism would be a change of PM collapsing the government.
Also, sacking Greening and Leadsom is hardly promoting women.
For me, the next GE is next year at the earliest, although if May continues to alienate the PCP at this rate it becomes more probable there will indeed be one in 2019.
Mr. Sandpit, I don't live near there or have a car
My father spent his last few years near Yeovil and I was frequently called upon to drive down (from S Essex) there on some emergency or other and even early on a Saturday we could be delayed there.
She has been the first one who has managed to do precisely nothing. All the others were ambitious, arrogant and/or incompetent and royally screwed things up to get good headlines in the Mail to promote their own careers.
I shall be exceedingly pissed off if she is replaced by some other nonentity who starts tinkering again.
If England can't recall Hameed or Jennings, they would be better off with James Anderson at no. 3. At least he can play a defensive shot when required.
Leadsom's leadership chances went last time whether she stays or goes, especially as Boris and Mogg will now have more appeal to the MPs she got last time.
Young' problem is that he has the self awareness to recognise that he's a bumptious prick, but seems to wish to publicly celebrate the fact on a regular basis.
Another possibility is May trying to railroad an eiderdown BINO through Parliament, annoying her own headbangers. Predicting black swan events is not easy.
On the other hand, managing a minority government requires a level of political deftness and emotional intelligence that May blatently lacks, so the possibility is always there.
Moeen Ali as First Secretary of State would improve the government spin operation at the margin and clearly tick the diversity box (down his cricketing whites) ....
Essentially if there was going to be an early general election it would have been last autumn, now it is increasingly likely there will not be one until 2021/2022 ie post Brexit and the end of the transition period
In any event, I think it an entirely secondary consideration. England have plenty of possibilities at the top of the order, and enough strong batters already in the team to give them a run in the side without making it obviously worse than it is now (particularly if we get Stokes back).
The real problem is the bowling, where we have a single world class bowler who is in his mid thirties, and literally no one else better than reliably mediocre outside of English conditions.
The bowling statistics for this series are utterly and historically gruesome.
Not keen on Jennings, and Hameed was injured, albeit slowly recovering, when the selections were made. Would let Browne have a go at opening, though, and/or give Lawrence a go at 3 or 4. If Porter was fit, of course, he should be bowling.
But then I’m Essex, so prejudiced!
If that is the case, it should be reasonably easy to sort out, though.
Countries function surprisingly well without a government, Germany at present is booming for example. There really is not much for the government to do other than Brexit and increasing austerity, the first being largely determined by the EU27 policy, and the latter by the poor state of the public finances. No Queens Speech this year, and no budget until November means little in the way, of things for politicians to do other than plot and brief against each other.
We'd still have the problem of county bowlers learning their trade on seaming pitches (and playing only one day cricket during most of the summer months), so it would do little to encourage the development of either spinners or truly fast bowlers.
And my point stands. If a reshuffle is to do anything, it's to give the administration a fresh look. Keeping the same senior faces won't do that.
I also agree that a reshuffle which leaves the major players in place and doesn't promote any new faces to major roles is completely useless. Not worth doing.
Agreeing with you twice in one day, Alastair, what has the world come to?
https://governorsagenda.co.uk/2017/12/31/green-paper-on-mental-health-provision-in-schools-and-academies/
But if you're thinking about it, or definitely planning one, then how can you quash (uninformed) newspaper speculation without closing down your options? It's like an early election all over again. Damned if you do (try to close down speculation) and damned if you don't.
In some ways it was a lot easier when everyone knew that a reshuffle happened once a year, every year. No need to worry about damping down the speculation then!
The reasons for the reshuffle are to promote young, diverse and female talent, but prime among the speculated demotions are,... women (and in one case - Javid - from ethnic minorities).... etc etc
Heartstrings tugging poverty-porn from charities or millionaire celebrities needs to be consistently and heavily satirised ... just like those "adopt me" photos that we used to see of miserable looking cats, dogs, and children. This was probably not the correct time, and Young should have scrubbed his twitter feed in advance to foil the trolls.
PR fail.
Leadsom has proven support amonst Con MPs fom the last Con leader contest.
No - it's like a specific exemption to the Equality Act that allows political parties to implement sex discrimination.
If we get a new transport sec then that would be a good thing.
Any reshuffle where there are no changes in the great offices of state is always a bit 'so what?'.