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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Three tips on who might be Theresa May’s successor
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Three tips on who might be Theresa May’s successor
A few days before Christmas I had lunch with a friend who has followed the Tory party for decades and knows it quite well. Inevitability the conversation turned on who might be Mrs May’s successor, their observations had a quite the impact and led to an update to my betting portfolio.
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Davis threatening to resign is hardly "to the point"...
What is Hunt actually doing to peak "too soon"?
It still looks like Hunt's to lose, for me, even though I think he is making a mess of health, at least he is largely keeping it out of the headlines. Patients will know about the growing shortages and queues but patients are not the electorate to consider here.
If May does leave abruptly then Hammond looks the most obvious plug-and-play replacement, as Chancellor and former Foreign Secretary with a pragmatic approach to Brexit.
Boris is too short in the betting but if the Tories are miles behind in the polls or even in Opposition, then Boris retains his USP as a winner of two Mayoral contests and one referendum.
Anyway, Shadsy kindly boosted Lidington and Gauke to 130/1 for a throwaway tenner. My main bet is on Hunt.
So take my bias into account.
But it seems to me that she is simply the best option the Tories have to get them over the line at the next election. Nobody will remember the details of what went wrong in 2017 in 4.5 years time. But if she lasts a couple of years she'll at least look like a survivor.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/men/thinking-man/defeat-nazis-winston-churchill-first-weaponised-words/
The article quotes Sir Nicholas Soames' view that our last great political orator was Michael Foot.
Wandering even further off-topic, the Telegraph mentions the imminent Darkest Hour film about Churchill vs Halifax on whether to continue the fight or make peace with Germany after the fall of France, which is probably a warning not to back Dunkirk for the Oscars. Remarkably there are at least four films on the period -- those two, Churchill, and Their Finest. Although I am no Roger or Marquee Mark, I also get the impression this has been a particularly strong year for cinema.
Lidington ? Nice guys come last - and he comes across as a bit ineffectual in the chamber (however unfairly).
Recidivist's argument is strong, though. We've seen how quickly opinion changes on this forum, where even hardline Conservatives were urging her to go, but now see her as doing a decent job. In general it's never a crazy strategy to bet on continuity - as people from Corbyn to Merkel have shown, incumbency and sheer doggedness can take you far further than the volatile commentators expect.
Also from Three Billboards, will be two nominations for Best Supporting Actor - Sam Rockwell and Woody Harrleson. The favourite will probably be Sam Rockwell, but I'd argue that Woody's performance was the better one.
I don't think Andrea Leadsom is any more likely than Jacob Rees-Mogg - she shot her bolt for good last year, IMHO - and I'd want north of 25/1 to even consider her.
Gavin Williamson is obviously angling for that same wing of the party.
David Lidington is a thoroughly nice guy but strikes me as a sort of Alec Douglas-Home figure. Possible, and at 100/1 decent enough odds, but I wouldn't put a lot on.
Daniel Day-Lewis is a good bet to contend for best actor Oscar in Phantom Thread, in which he would even have beaten our own Ms Cyclefree to the acting honours this time out! It is a strange little movie, but he dominates a film that really stays with you. And he says it is his last, having retired. (Again. The last time proved to be cobblers....) Honourable mention to Andrew Garfield in Breathe. But for the BAFTAs at least, can't see past Gary Oldman in Darkest Hour. (Which is also nailed on for Hair and Makeup!)
However, of the Big Contenders, I still have to see Dunkirk and Call Me By Your Name.
Mr. L, might have been a feeling a Churchill film would work either way.
One for you, Joe Saward on “Where were the honours for one of Britain’s best known industries”
https://joesaward.wordpress.com/2017/12/30/a-flawed-system/
F1 is a huge success for the UK, with the majority of teams based here, provided a great local economy for suppliers and many well-paid jobs (not to mention numerous title bonuses).
www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZvBPZF16njw&t=2495
By the way, just for fun: today is the last day David Cameron gave himself to achieve his renegotiation and deliver an in/out referendum on the European Union.
It's one of the reasons India was so unpopular with teams, trying to get a twentieth (one race out of 20) of tax from them. The fact it was a bloody awful circuit didn't exactly help.
Don't ignore either the elephant in the room - the next leader will secure the post Brexit settlement. So it's not only about how they have performed with their respective briefs, its about which wing of the Tories wins out and the reaction of the other wing to losing. I still think JRM will make the final two on this ground alone - that he looks and feels like an authentic Tory of the past (which is precisely where a significant number in the party are determined to go) has to help him.
Can't read the titles very clearly but the source seems to be a "former Lloyd's underwriter", and why he would know anything about it in that capacity, God knows.
Tbh I cannot get too excited about honours but nor do I want to abolish a system which is cheap and keeps people happy.
On another topic, when are the new peerages announced?
The war films may do well at the BAFTAs, but probably not at the Oscars, as Britain's 1940 doesnot have the same resonance on the US West coast. Dunkirk was very cleverly filmed, so may be the exception.
Incidentally, I saw Paddington 2 the other day, highly recommended. Hugh Grant hams it up superbly as the villain.
I will bet £50 that Iran will have a revolution before end-of CY2018. Would anyone - and only one - wish to bet against this?
All funds to FATJUGS*. PtP to adjudicate please.
* Future Accruals To Junior's Usually Good Servers.
That Mail article brought a long standing thought to the fore, best summed up by adapting Sunil:
"Didn't Believe in Britain, so I beleaved" (or beleft if you prefer)
Casino was explicit in this lack of faith in successive governments in his reply. We would apparently be too weak to resist a wholesale coup d'etat against the nation state by the ECJ.
How the solution is to put the backs to the wall of the self same British governments and system for which he has such little regard, and into a situation where we might feel the need to spaff our sovereignty to any nation in the world who might want a piece, I'm not quite sure.
I can see that there is always a reason not to have a contest, but I really do not think either she or the Tory party would want her spearheading another campaign. It may happen in the circumstances where an election happens precipitously, but whatever circumstances set that off would heavily colour the result.
Assuming May survives until the deal is done then the party will accept the new reality. The Grey suits will insist on the best candidate being chosen regardless of the past. All they will need to do is accept the status quo and commit to "moving on" from the topic.
So Remainers will be fine. Rejoinders will not. Similarly anyone on the Ultra side who wants to repudiate May's deal will be cast into the outer darkness
Gauke s a better bet and if he delivers on universal credit and makes it the success it should be ie ensuring that it always pays to work more hours and the benefits system does not mean you have to turn down part time work, then a number of MPs who backed May in June 2016 could turn to him.
May is likely to stay now in my view post Brexit until the end of the transition in 2021 so there may be room for a new contender but they would needs to get in the Cabinet first.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42524076
Money matters, and to cope on projected budgets there needs to be explicit areas that fall outside the NHS, a nettle unlikely to be grasped in a hung parliament. Ultimately though, the NHS can run a bare bones service on a shoestring, but the biggest threat is the shortage of skilled personnel. The senior cadres are retiring early, and the junior ranks are not getting the adequate training to replace them.
I am not optomistic about the long term prospects of medicine in the UK.
Leadsom was included but got barely 1%.
https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2017/12/our-survey-next-tory-leader-as-last-month-rees-mogg-leads-and-gove-is-second.html
He ended up asking me to write a letter to the class about what I remembered about being a child during the war; I was about the age of his class when the war ended.
#Esther4Leader
Currently being wasted in the Whip's office. If May had any sense McVey would be doing media interviews 24/7.
I've long had crisis overload on it, and am now dispassionately waiting for the actual collapse.
Civil servants presumably? Worth noting that Osborne and perhaps the Treasury more generally were never convinced by IDS's scheme.
The central soldier character was essentially a coward, with only one motivation of escape. The film takes the fashionable view of soldier as victim, but in Hollywood they rather prefer more heroic images of the military.
There are far more things to be worried about than medics.
Had there been a meaningful reform agreed, then things might have been different. Lisbon betrayed Britain by changing whole swathes of competences from requiring unanimity to QMV, which allows the Eurozone to unilaterally change laws without any say of non-Eurozone nations like Britain. Had it been agreed for example to bring in the introduction of "double QMV" voting in areas that previously required unanimity, where a QMV of both Eurozone and non-Eurozone nations is required to introduce laws affecting non-Eurozone nations then that would have been meaningful.
The EU wasn't willing to contemplate that or remove in any way the unilateral lawmaking powers of the Eurozone. I believe in Britain independently, but no I don't believe Britain can meaningfully reform the EU when the EU has shown we can't. When the Eurozone can unilaterally rewrite our laws without any input from Britain.
However I would be wary about some of them, Grayling in particular is close to May and ran her leadership campaign.
I don’t think that Corbyn should be in charge of the nation’s security. But I have made up my mind about him. He leads a party which has become institutionally anti-semitic and I find this such a moral failing that I simply cannot place my trust in leaders who preside over such a change in what used to be a decent party. I feel sorry for decent Labour people. But I cannot join them. There is a fundamental dishonesty and moral evasion in Corbyn and McDonnell’s leadership, despite all their claims to be principled. If they are ever put into power they will I think be found out and it will be a painful lesson for their supporters.
But for now Corbyn speaks attractively and correctly identifies many problems. Still, any fool can do the latter. Even May has done so. It’s finding effective solutions which is difficult and both she and Corbyn are useless on that score.
It is those voters who see someone speaking about austerity in a way that resonates and who appears to have answers whom the Tories need to persuade.
The security line was tried (somewhat ineptly) at the last election and didn’t work. The Tories need to demolish his economic policies and have something positive to offer themselves. That’s the test for any possible replacement for Mrs May.
You make the fundamental Tory error of seeing money as the only motivator. In most jobs other factors are equally or more important as motivators. Team spirit, workload, respect and self respect, altruism, tolerable work life balance, a supportive attitude to personal and professional development etc etc.
There is much that could be done to improve morale and often quite cheaply. I am not agitating for a pay rise.
I have - gulp! - written 32 thread headers in the last two years. So I would like to thank OGH and TSE for allowing me the privilege and you all for your comments and the lively debate. Thanks too to all the other very good header writers.
Best wishes to all for a good celebration tonight, whatever you are doing, and for 2018.
In 1990 by contrast polls showed both Major and Heseltine would get a poll bounce relative to Thatcher.
Your thread headers have been terrific.
Happy retirement DrFauxSux.