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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The challenges facing the Conservatives

The Conservatives are in power and in disarray.  They possess a will to power but no common view on what to do with it.  For now the bulk of the party is intent on pursuing Brexit to its bitter conclusion.  But what then?  What indeed.  For the Conservative coalition has been turned upside down.

Read the full story here

IanB2

First?

The Tories need to face up to these challenges, before it is too late. Tied to Brexit, they are probably doomed to face a long period in opposition, once the electorate gets a chance to cast a verdict on the charade that is passing for government during these most challenging times.

HYUFD

Hammond and Javid have recently proposed a big housebuilding programme, Osborne's national living wage is coming in, £8 billion over this Parliament is going into the NHS and unemployment is at an all time low so there is plenty going on beyond Brexit.

Plus let us not forget 17 million people voted for Brexit, more than have ever voted Tory or Labour and indeed the Tories got 42.4% of the vote in June after Brexit, their highest voteshare at a general election since 1983.

IanB2

The Conservatives' USPs are supposed to be sound stewardship of the economy, and resisting any radical change until the very last moment. Yet they are about to imperil the economy and thrust upon us a radical and hitherto untested change in the political and economic environment of our nation. There is every likelihood that, when the true implications of their actions become apparent, we won't see another Tory government for a considerable period of time.

RobD

Thanks Meeks!

rpjs

FPT, and not off-topic for this one:

tpfkar said:

This review, going against formal advice to insist on the 2015 register being used, blocking AV or any more proportional system, individual voter registration, trialling ID to vote, blocking Lords Reform, blocking votes at 16. Some of these changes are no bad things and I've no doubt that many Tories believe they are the right things to do, but there is a persistent pattern of putting party self-interest first, over many years.

The voter ID trial is a bit of a head-scratcher for me. It seems designed to particularly affect older voters, such as those who no longer drive and so don't have a driving licence. People who would skew towards the Tories more than the electorate as a whole.

felix

IanB2 said:

The Conservatives' USPs are supposed to be sound stewardship of the economy, and resisting any radical change until the very last moment. Yet they are about to imperil the economy and thrust upon us a radical and hitherto untested change in the political and economic environment of our nation. There is every likelihood that, when the true implications of their actions become apparent, we won't see another Tory government for a considerable period of time.

About to imperil the economy - according to previous predictions the economy was to be trashed on referendum night. The most recent IMF forecasts - only the other week have already been shown to be wrong after this year's growth was revised up to the same level as Germany [1.9%]! Every time people predict the impending demise of the Con/Lab party it heralds a recovery/rebound, etc., etc. It really is time for people to move on, accepth the Brexit result, accept that we are stuck with two middling PPs because the alternatives are pie in the sky. The UK economy has serious problems and considerable strengths. Believe me it's much the same in most of Europe. Life goes on.

Razedabode

Good article which correctly identifies a few of the tory issues.

Its impossible to know how the future will play out for them on the back of a very turbulent two years in politics. I think some posters place too much emphasis on a guaranteed and profound shock to the economy which has continued to prove pretty resilient. What i think is the tories biggest issue is the lack of wage growth and the ongoing productivity problems. I also think the tories continue to lack any sensible offer for the young.

A lot of what happens depends on Labour. I think they have got themselves in a bit of a pickle with their brexit stance which means theyll have to clarify a position at some point.

IanB2

rpjs said:

FPT, and not off-topic for this one:

tpfkar said:

This review, going against formal advice to insist on the 2015 register being used, blocking AV or any more proportional system, individual voter registration, trialling ID to vote, blocking Lords Reform, blocking votes at 16. Some of these changes are no bad things and I've no doubt that many Tories believe they are the right things to do, but there is a persistent pattern of putting party self-interest first, over many years.

The voter ID trial is a bit of a head-scratcher for me. It seems designed to particularly affect older voters, such as those who no longer drive and so don't have a driving licence. People who would skew towards the Tories more than the electorate as a whole.

I think you'll find that it was ethnic minority voters that the inspirators of this particular policy had in mind.

Casino_Royale

Very interesting. Thanks.

HYUFD

IanB2 said:

The Conservatives' USPs are supposed to be sound stewardship of the economy, and resisting any radical change until the very last moment. Yet they are about to imperil the economy and thrust upon us a radical and hitherto untested change in the political and economic environment of our nation. There is every likelihood that, when the true implications of their actions become apparent, we won't see another Tory government for a considerable period of time.

It was the British people who voted for Brexit and it is Corbyn who will imperil the economy not the FTA with the EU that ends free movement the Tories are moving towards.

Even now Corbyn does not have the poll lead he needs for a working majority and even if he does PM the Tories would likely soon revive as the implications of a Corbyn government become clear

Morris_Dancer

Good afternoon, everyone.

Recidivist

Of all the advantages the Tories have I'd always thought that their support in the press was the biggest and most valuable. But I wonder. I think it might explain why they seem to be so tin eared. A lot of them, including some posters on here, are under the impression that their views are mainstream and even majority. I guess that they see their worldview reflected in the media so much it is an easy mistake to make. That's got to adversely affect their judgement to some extent.

SouthamObserver

For as long as Jeremy Corbyn is Labour leader the Tories will be fine. They'll be able to tear each other to pieces, preside over a stagnating economy and falling living standards, and an ongoing reduction in British power and standing, and they'll remain the biggest party in the House of Commons. Their real problems will not begin until the UK has left the EU and Labour has a new leader.

IanB2

Recidivist said:

Of all the advantages the Tories have I'd always thought that their support in the press was the biggest and most valuable. But I wonder. I think it might explain why they seem to be so tin eared. A lot of them, including some posters on here, are under the impression that their views are mainstream and even majority. I guess that they see their worldview reflected in the media so much it is an easy mistake to make. That's got to adversely affect their judgement to some extent.

Brexit involves the Tories sailing beyond the edge of their known world. I agree that it will be interesting to find out how this voyage will end.

OldKingCole

HYUFD said:

Hammond and Javid have recently proposed a big housebuilding programme, Osborne's national living wage is coming in, £8 billion over this Parliament is going into the NHS and unemployment is at an all time low so there is plenty going on beyond Brexit.

Plus let us not forget 17 million people voted for Brexit, more than have ever voted Tory or Labour and indeed the Tories got 42.4% of the vote in June after Brexit, their highest voteshare at a general election since 1983.

The housebuilding programme is just that; a programme, and while there are strong signs of activity in one or places in NE Essex, those houeze are not cheap.

david_herdson

On topic, it's all very well saying that there are more important things than Brexit. In the real world this is of course true. In the political one, there isn't: Brexit cannot be set aside, ignored or kicked into the long grass. It has to be delivered. That single fact defines the priorities not only of this government but of any one that might have been formed since 2016.

rpjs

IanB2 said:

rpjs said:

FPT, and not off-topic for this one:

tpfkar said:

This review, going against formal advice to insist on the 2015 register being used, blocking AV or any more proportional system, individual voter registration, trialling ID to vote, blocking Lords Reform, blocking votes at 16. Some of these changes are no bad things and I've no doubt that many Tories believe they are the right things to do, but there is a persistent pattern of putting party self-interest first, over many years.

The voter ID trial is a bit of a head-scratcher for me. It seems designed to particularly affect older voters, such as those who no longer drive and so don't have a driving licence. People who would skew towards the Tories more than the electorate as a whole.

I think you'll find that it was ethnic minority voters that the inspirators of this particular policy had in mind.

I'm sure you're right, but in practice I wonder if it will hurt the Tories more than it helps them. The results from the five pilot council areas in May will be particularly worth scrutinizing in detail.

SunnyJim

There is a cognitive bias amongst many hardcore remainers which leads them to think that the immediacy of the Brexit process, and its impact on domestic politics, will continue beyond the completion of that process.

In reality, unless Brexit has a severe and obvious impact on jobs, the vast majority of voters will move on (with relief).

It will just be the ultra-remainers still ranting and raving...to the annoyance of the 90% who have the emotional maturity to accept that the democratic process has taken its course even if not all agree with the exact route.

logical_song

HYUFD said:

IanB2 said:

The Conservatives' USPs are supposed to be sound stewardship of the economy, and resisting any radical change until the very last moment. Yet they are about to imperil the economy and thrust upon us a radical and hitherto untested change in the political and economic environment of our nation. There is every likelihood that, when the true implications of their actions become apparent, we won't see another Tory government for a considerable period of time.

It was the British people who voted for Brexit and it is Corbyn who will imperil the economy not the FTA with the EU that ends free movement the Tories are moving towards.

Even now Corbyn does not have the poll lead he needs for a working majority and even if he does PM the Tories would likely soon revive as the implications of a Corbyn government become clear

"It was the British people who voted for Brexit"
Only just, so 17 million voted Leave, but 16 million voted Remain. It was close.

HYUFD

SouthamObserver said:

For as long as Jeremy Corbyn is Labour leader the Tories will be fine. They'll be able to tear each other to pieces, preside over a stagnating economy and falling living standards, and an ongoing reduction in British power and standing, and they'll remain the biggest party in the House of Commons. Their real problems will not begin until the UK has left the EU and Labour has a new leader.

As long as Corbyn is Labour leader, Labour are unlikely to win a working majority even if he does end up PM and Corbyn is almost certain to be Labour leader at the next general election. If and when he is eventually replaced by a more moderate figure like Umunna Labour may finally be able to win over voters who voted for Blair but switched to Cameron and still will not vote for Corbyn Labour but that will not be for a while yet. By then immigration may have been brought under control too and a new Labour leader thus better able to make the case for the single market.

HYUFD

Recidivist said:

Of all the advantages the Tories have I'd always thought that their support in the press was the biggest and most valuable. But I wonder. I think it might explain why they seem to be so tin eared. A lot of them, including some posters on here, are under the impression that their views are mainstream and even majority. I guess that they see their worldview reflected in the media so much it is an easy mistake to make. That's got to adversely affect their judgement to some extent.

Most voters aren't Telegraph readers but they aren't Mirror readers either

HYUFD

OldKingCole said:

HYUFD said:

Hammond and Javid have recently proposed a big housebuilding programme, Osborne's national living wage is coming in, £8 billion over this Parliament is going into the NHS and unemployment is at an all time low so there is plenty going on beyond Brexit.

Plus let us not forget 17 million people voted for Brexit, more than have ever voted Tory or Labour and indeed the Tories got 42.4% of the vote in June after Brexit, their highest voteshare at a general election since 1983.

The housebuilding programme is just that; a programme, and while there are strong signs of activity in one or places in NE Essex, those houeze are not cheap.

About 40% minimum of new houses have to be affordable housing in my area

OldKingCole

HYUFD said:

OldKingCole said:

HYUFD said:

Hammond and Javid have recently proposed a big housebuilding programme, Osborne's national living wage is coming in, £8 billion over this Parliament is going into the NHS and unemployment is at an all time low so there is plenty going on beyond Brexit.

Plus let us not forget 17 million people voted for Brexit, more than have ever voted Tory or Labour and indeed the Tories got 42.4% of the vote in June after Brexit, their highest voteshare at a general election since 1983.

The housebuilding programme is just that; a programme, and while there are strong signs of activity in one or places in NE Essex, those houeze are not cheap.

About 40% minimum of new houses have to be affordable housing in my area

You’re SW Essex aren’t you? What does 'affordable’mean there?

HYUFD

OldKingCole said:

HYUFD said:

OldKingCole said:

HYUFD said:

Hammond and Javid have recently proposed a big housebuilding programme, Osborne's national living wage is coming in, £8 billion over this Parliament is going into the NHS and unemployment is at an all time low so there is plenty going on beyond Brexit.

Plus let us not forget 17 million people voted for Brexit, more than have ever voted Tory or Labour and indeed the Tories got 42.4% of the vote in June after Brexit, their highest voteshare at a general election since 1983.

The housebuilding programme is just that; a programme, and while there are strong signs of activity in one or places in NE Essex, those houeze are not cheap.

About 40% minimum of new houses have to be affordable housing in my area

You’re SW Essex aren’t you? What does 'affordable’mean there?

Housing at most no more than 80% of the price of the median property value in the area

Yorkcity

SouthamObserver said:

For as long as Jeremy Corbyn is Labour leader the Tories will be fine. They'll be able to tear each other to pieces, preside over a stagnating economy and falling living standards, and an ongoing reduction in British power and standing, and they'll remain the biggest party in the House of Commons. Their real problems will not begin until the UK has left the EU and Labour has a new leader.

I think you are correct.However every call you have made on Corbyn from winning the Labour leadership in 2015, to the GE result in June 17 you and the great and good have been wrong.Do you ever question, that the post you rinse and repeat on every occasion could be wrong ?

HYUFD

Yorkcity said:

SouthamObserver said:

For as long as Jeremy Corbyn is Labour leader the Tories will be fine. They'll be able to tear each other to pieces, preside over a stagnating economy and falling living standards, and an ongoing reduction in British power and standing, and they'll remain the biggest party in the House of Commons. Their real problems will not begin until the UK has left the EU and Labour has a new leader.

I think you are correct.However every call you have made on Corbyn from winning the Labour leadership in 2015, to the GE result in June 17 you and the great and good have been wrong.Do you ever question, that the post you rinse and repeat on every occasion could be wrong ?

I also think only Boris has the charisma and appeal to give a chance of getting a Tory majority next time, any other Tory leader will likely see another hung parliament which means a possible Corbyn premiership even if the Tories win most seats.

OldKingCole

HYUFD said:

Yorkcity said:

SouthamObserver said:

For as long as Jeremy Corbyn is Labour leader the Tories will be fine. They'll be able to tear each other to pieces, preside over a stagnating economy and falling living standards, and an ongoing reduction in British power and standing, and they'll remain the biggest party in the House of Commons. Their real problems will not begin until the UK has left the EU and Labour has a new leader.

I think you are correct.However every call you have made on Corbyn from winning the Labour leadership in 2015, to the GE result in June 17 you and the great and good have been wrong.Do you ever question, that the post you rinse and repeat on every occasion could be wrong ?

I also think only Boris has the charisma and appeal to give a chance of getting a Tory majority next time, any other Tory leader will likely see another hung parliament which means a possible Corbyn premiership even if the Tories win most seats.

Boris has left too many bodies around. If Heseltine couln’t do it, Boris certainly can’t.

SouthamObserver

Yorkcity said:

SouthamObserver said:

For as long as Jeremy Corbyn is Labour leader the Tories will be fine. They'll be able to tear each other to pieces, preside over a stagnating economy and falling living standards, and an ongoing reduction in British power and standing, and they'll remain the biggest party in the House of Commons. Their real problems will not begin until the UK has left the EU and Labour has a new leader.

I think you are correct.However every call you have made on Corbyn from winning the Labour leadership in 2015, to the GE result in June 17 you and the great and good have been wrong.Do you ever question, that the post you rinse and repeat on every occasion could be wrong ?

I got Corbyn completely wrong - mainly because I did not trust my own view of May and thought that I must be missing something others were seeing. It turns out that May really was as bad as I had believed. That said, it seems pretty clear that at least 40% of the electorate will never vote for a party that Corbyn leads. Of course, if I am wrong the Tories are potentially in even more trouble than I think

bigjohnowls

SouthamObserver said:

For as long as Jeremy Corbyn is Labour leader the Tories will be fine. They'll be able to tear each other to pieces, preside over a stagnating economy and falling living standards, and an ongoing reduction in British power and standing, and they'll remain the biggest party in the House of Commons. Their real problems will not begin until the UK has left the EU and Labour has a new leader.

Says the expert on Corbyn underestimation.

Who cant possibly be your MP again?

IanB2

HYUFD said:

Yorkcity said:

SouthamObserver said:

For as long as Jeremy Corbyn is Labour leader the Tories will be fine. They'll be able to tear each other to pieces, preside over a stagnating economy and falling living standards, and an ongoing reduction in British power and standing, and they'll remain the biggest party in the House of Commons. Their real problems will not begin until the UK has left the EU and Labour has a new leader.

I think you are correct.However every call you have made on Corbyn from winning the Labour leadership in 2015, to the GE result in June 17 you and the great and good have been wrong.Do you ever question, that the post you rinse and repeat on every occasion could be wrong ?

I also think only Boris has the charisma and appeal to give a chance of getting a Tory majority next time, any other Tory leader will likely see another hung parliament which means a possible Corbyn premiership even if the Tories win most seats.

He isn't called Bozo without reason.

SouthamObserver

bigjohnowls said:

SouthamObserver said:

For as long as Jeremy Corbyn is Labour leader the Tories will be fine. They'll be able to tear each other to pieces, preside over a stagnating economy and falling living standards, and an ongoing reduction in British power and standing, and they'll remain the biggest party in the House of Commons. Their real problems will not begin until the UK has left the EU and Labour has a new leader.

Says the expert on Corbyn underestimation.

Who cant possibly be your MP again?

We have a Labour MP because unlike most parts of the Midlands, my bit voted Remain. The good people of Warwick & Leamington really haven't decided to embrace radical socialism. Instead, after going for the Tories in 2010 and giving them a bigger majority in 2015, they voted against the Hard, Red, White & Blue Brexit Theresa May offered to the British people in June. That's why Labour generally picked up most of its new seats and votes in relatively affluent, Remain-backing parts of the country and lost seats and support in mainly working class, Leave backing parts of the country.

Sean_F

IanB2 said:

The Conservatives' USPs are supposed to be sound stewardship of the economy, and resisting any radical change until the very last moment. Yet they are about to imperil the economy and thrust upon us a radical and hitherto untested change in the political and economic environment of our nation. There is every likelihood that, when the true implications of their actions become apparent, we won't see another Tory government for a considerable period of time.

On the other hand, delivering Brexit, and not being Corbyn may well be quite sufficient to deliver 40-44% of the vote in 2022.

HYUFD

IanB2 said:

HYUFD said:

Yorkcity said:

SouthamObserver said:

For as long as Jeremy Corbyn is Labour leader the Tories will be fine. They'll be able to tear each other to pieces, preside over a stagnating economy and falling living standards, and an ongoing reduction in British power and standing, and they'll remain the biggest party in the House of Commons. Their real problems will not begin until the UK has left the EU and Labour has a new leader.

I think you are correct.However every call you have made on Corbyn from winning the Labour leadership in 2015, to the GE result in June 17 you and the great and good have been wrong.Do you ever question, that the post you rinse and repeat on every occasion could be wrong ?

I also think only Boris has the charisma and appeal to give a chance of getting a Tory majority next time, any other Tory leader will likely see another hung parliament which means a possible Corbyn premiership even if the Tories win most seats.

He isn't called Bozo without reason.

Having won two London Mayoral elections and an EU referendum no other Tory matches him in electoral appeal

Morris_Dancer

Mr. HYUFD, London's going to be Labour next time, and Boris' association with it may not help the idea of him fly further north.

HYUFD

OldKingCole said:

HYUFD said:

Yorkcity said:

SouthamObserver said:

For as long as Jeremy Corbyn is Labour leader the Tories will be fine. They'll be able to tear each other to pieces, preside over a stagnating economy and falling living standards, and an ongoing reduction in British power and standing, and they'll remain the biggest party in the House of Commons. Their real problems will not begin until the UK has left the EU and Labour has a new leader.

I think you are correct.However every call you have made on Corbyn from winning the Labour leadership in 2015, to the GE result in June 17 you and the great and good have been wrong.Do you ever question, that the post you rinse and repeat on every occasion could be wrong ?

I also think only Boris has the charisma and appeal to give a chance of getting a Tory majority next time, any other Tory leader will likely see another hung parliament which means a possible Corbyn premiership even if the Tories win most seats.

Boris has left too many bodies around. If Heseltine couln’t do it, Boris certainly can’t.

Heseltine was out of tune with most Tory voters in being anti Thatcher, as soon as the Tories found a vaguely Thatcherite alternative who polled as well as him ie Major his chance went.

Boris though is in tune with most Tories on Brexit without being as extreme as Mogg when it comes to swing voters.

Though had Heseltine led the Tories in 1992 he probably would have beaten Kinnock too

Yorkcity

SouthamObserver said:

Yorkcity said:

SouthamObserver said:

For as long as Jeremy Corbyn is Labour leader the Tories will be fine. They'll be able to tear each other to pieces, preside over a stagnating economy and falling living standards, and an ongoing reduction in British power and standing, and they'll remain the biggest party in the House of Commons. Their real problems will not begin until the UK has left the EU and Labour has a new leader.

I think you are correct.However every call you have made on Corbyn from winning the Labour leadership in 2015, to the GE result in June 17 you and the great and good have been wrong.Do you ever question, that the post you rinse and repeat on every occasion could be wrong ?

I got Corbyn completely wrong - mainly because I did not trust my own view of May and thought that I must be missing something others were seeing. It turns out that May really was as bad as I had believed. That said, it seems pretty clear that at least 40% of the electorate will never vote for a party that Corbyn leads. Of course, if I am wrong the Tories are potentially in even more trouble than I think

I admit so did I.Could hardly believe the exit poll.It makes me very wary of predicting any result.Especially if the people who say they are Labour actually turnout in large numbers.

HYUFD

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. HYUFD, London's going to be Labour next time, and Boris' association with it may not help the idea of him fly further north.

Boris does not need to win London or the North, he just needs to win back a few mainly Leave voting seats in the South and Midlands for a small Tory majority

Morris_Dancer

Mr. HYUFD, plenty of marginals in West Yorkshire. The blues should also be aiming for Sheffield Hallam.

HYUFD

SouthamObserver said:

bigjohnowls said:

SouthamObserver said:

For as long as Jeremy Corbyn is Labour leader the Tories will be fine. They'll be able to tear each other to pieces, preside over a stagnating economy and falling living standards, and an ongoing reduction in British power and standing, and they'll remain the biggest party in the House of Commons. Their real problems will not begin until the UK has left the EU and Labour has a new leader.

Says the expert on Corbyn underestimation.

Who cant possibly be your MP again?

We have a Labour MP because unlike most parts of the Midlands, my bit voted Remain. The good people of Warwick & Leamington really haven't decided to embrace radical socialism. Instead, after going for the Tories in 2010 and giving them a bigger majority in 2015, they voted against the Hard, Red, White & Blue Brexit Theresa May offered to the British people in June. That's why Labour generally picked up most of its new seats and votes in relatively affluent, Remain-backing parts of the country and lost seats and support in mainly working class, Leave backing parts of the country.

Warwick and Leamington is now 21st on the Tories target list for the next general election, the Tories could win a majority of 1 next time and still lose Warwick and Leamington

http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative

SouthamObserver

Yorkcity said:

SouthamObserver said:

Yorkcity said:

SouthamObserver said:

For as long as Jeremy Corbyn is Labour leader the Tories will be fine. They'll be able to tear each other to pieces, preside over a stagnating economy and falling living standards, and an ongoing reduction in British power and standing, and they'll remain the biggest party in the House of Commons. Their real problems will not begin until the UK has left the EU and Labour has a new leader.

I think you are correct.However every call you have made on Corbyn from winning the Labour leadership in 2015, to the GE result in June 17 you and the great and good have been wrong.Do you ever question, that the post you rinse and repeat on every occasion could be wrong ?

I got Corbyn completely wrong - mainly because I did not trust my own view of May and thought that I must be missing something others were seeing. It turns out that May really was as bad as I had believed. That said, it seems pretty clear that at least 40% of the electorate will never vote for a party that Corbyn leads. Of course, if I am wrong the Tories are potentially in even more trouble than I think

I admit so did I.Could hardly believe the exit poll.It makes me very wary of predicting any result.Especially if the people who say they are Labour actually turnout in large numbers.

That exit poll was my political highlight of the last 10 years. I could not believe it and the joy it brought me as it turned out to be true was immense. What a night it was to see the electorate reject May's Brexit vision.

williamglenn

SunnyJim said:

There is a cognitive bias amongst many hardcore remainers which leads them to think that the immediacy of the Brexit process, and its impact on domestic politics, will continue beyond the completion of that process.

In reality, unless Brexit has a severe and obvious impact on jobs, the vast majority of voters will move on (with relief).

It will just be the ultra-remainers still ranting and raving...to the annoyance of the 90% who have the emotional maturity to accept that the democratic process has taken its course even if not all agree with the exact route.

This sort of sanctimony is only possible due to a cognitive lacuna when it comes to the practical implications of Brexit. The only way the 'process' will be completed any time soon is if it is aborted.

Simon

The difficulty with satisfying the resolute remainers seems to be that that involves remaining in the EU. If Brexit is to be inevitable, they seem intent on causing such a limp Brexit that we have the worst of both worlds, so they can then say "Told you so!".

After the referendum, the Conservatives could either have implemented its decision or not. Not implementing it would have been, as they say in "Yes, Prime Minister", very brave. Having chosen to implement Brexit, it would be politically fatal to try to perform a U-turn. Whatever might be desirable in other policy areas, no success there would counterbalance a failure to deliver a sound Brexit. Brexit has to come first.

Given Mrs. May's Millibandish instincts, it is also hard to see how the Conservatives could unite whilst she is PM to deliver anything other than Brexit.

HYUFD

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. HYUFD, plenty of marginals in West Yorkshire. The blues should also be aiming for Sheffield Hallam.

Which might vote for a populist Leaver like Boris, even Cameron did not win Sheffield Hallam, that is now a LD v Labour marginal really

HYUFD

SouthamObserver said:

Yorkcity said:

SouthamObserver said:

Yorkcity said:

SouthamObserver said:

For as long as Jeremy Corbyn is Labour leader the Tories will be fine. They'll be able to tear each other to pieces, preside over a stagnating economy and falling living standards, and an ongoing reduction in British power and standing, and they'll remain the biggest party in the House of Commons. Their real problems will not begin until the UK has left the EU and Labour has a new leader.

I think you are correct.However every call you have made on Corbyn from winning the Labour leadership in 2015, to the GE result in June 17 you and the great and good have been wrong.Do you ever question, that the post you rinse and repeat on every occasion could be wrong ?

I got Corbyn completely wrong - mainly because I did not trust my own view of May and thought that I must be missing something others were seeing. It turns out that May really was as bad as I had believed. That said, it seems pretty clear that at least 40% of the electorate will never vote for a party that Corbyn leads. Of course, if I am wrong the Tories are potentially in even more trouble than I think

I admit so did I.Could hardly believe the exit poll.It makes me very wary of predicting any result.Especially if the people who say they are Labour actually turnout in large numbers.

That exit poll was my political highlight of the last 10 years. I could not believe it and the joy it brought me as it turned out to be true was immense. What a night it was to see the electorate reject May's Brexit vision.

Except Corbyn's Brexit 'vision' is now little different from May's

IanB2

HYUFD said:

SouthamObserver said:

Yorkcity said:

SouthamObserver said:

Yorkcity said:

SouthamObserver said:

For as long as Jeremy Corbyn is Labour leader the Tories will be fine. They'll be able to tear each other to pieces, preside over a stagnating economy and falling living standards, and an ongoing reduction in British power and standing, and they'll remain the biggest party in the House of Commons. Their real problems will not begin until the UK has left the EU and Labour has a new leader.

I think you are correct.However every call you have made on Corbyn from winning the Labour leadership in 2015, to the GE result in June 17 you and the great and good have been wrong.Do you ever question, that the post you rinse and repeat on every occasion could be wrong ?

I got Corbyn completely wrong - mainly because I did not trust my own view of May and thought that I must be missing something others were seeing. It turns out that May really was as bad as I had believed. That said, it seems pretty clear that at least 40% of the electorate will never vote for a party that Corbyn leads. Of course, if I am wrong the Tories are potentially in even more trouble than I think

I admit so did I.Could hardly believe the exit poll.It makes me very wary of predicting any result.Especially if the people who say they are Labour actually turnout in large numbers.

That exit poll was my political highlight of the last 10 years. I could not believe it and the joy it brought me as it turned out to be true was immense. What a night it was to see the electorate reject May's Brexit vision.

Except Corbyn's Brexit 'vision' is now little different from May's

Very tiresome

Y0kel

IS

In their usual seasonal missives of goodwill, IS related outlets have been calling for attacks for Western countries between Christmas and New Year festive period. They really mean it, it'd be a nice shot in the arm.

To vary the tactics a bit, the thinking is that centrally planned efforts are going to be increasingly contracted out to non residents. Its a confusion tactic, a Brit drops into Germany a French resident to London. This tactic has already been used and its value is considered worthwhile. Meanwhile at home, the Somali community are of particular concern right now.

Trumpton.

It should be noted that ex-spooks of US Intelligence, i.e. not the FBI, have been increasingly coming out of the cracks to publicly state that the President is in effect a Russian agent. The current spooks can say nothing, because they are the ones holding a lot of information.

Again, this investigation will eventually reach figures at home. A lot of money has been circulating, a lot.

stevef

And yet the Tories are neck and neck with Labour with no sign of their support falling away. And no opposition has ever come to power without being at least 15 points ahead between elections.....

This article is typical of the Remoaner narrative. This is a Tory Brexit. Indeed, both Cameron and May voted Remain. The government is merely carrying out the will of the people after a democratic referendum.

Then we have loaded phrases like "to the bitter end". Why does it have to be bitter? It strikes me that the only bitterness comes from those who lost the referendum and cant accept democracy.

The most likely (in my opinion) outcome will be a Norway style deal MINUS freedom of movement, but with regulations aligned to the EU. Britain could be very successful with such a deal.

Labour dares not offer a deal that allows freedom of movement. All those UKIP votes they won in 2017 would desert them in droves.

And suppose the OP is right and Brexit is an economic disaster. Suppose the Tories fall from power. Then Labour will inherit the economic mess and wont be able to implement its programme -already unfunded. A Corbyn government presiding over economic catastrophe would be blamed and this will pave the way for a Tory landslide. And before you say that cant happen-it has happened to Labour again and again. In 1950/1 Labour got the blame for the economic problems caused by WW2 and the Tories returned to power. In 1931 Labour got the blame for the World Depression, in 1979, Labour got the blame for the inflation caused by the Oil Crisis, in 2010 Labour got the blame for the World Recession. In the very unlikely event of Corbyn coming to power on the back of Brexit, it may be a very pyrrhic victory indeed.

IanB2

HYUFD said:

IanB2 said:

HYUFD said:

Yorkcity said:

SouthamObserver said:

For as long as Jeremy Corbyn is Labour leader the Tories will be fine. They'll be able to tear each other to pieces, preside over a stagnating economy and falling living standards, and an ongoing reduction in British power and standing, and they'll remain the biggest party in the House of Commons. Their real problems will not begin until the UK has left the EU and Labour has a new leader.

I think you are correct.However every call you have made on Corbyn from winning the Labour leadership in 2015, to the GE result in June 17 you and the great and good have been wrong.Do you ever question, that the post you rinse and repeat on every occasion could be wrong ?

I also think only Boris has the charisma and appeal to give a chance of getting a Tory majority next time, any other Tory leader will likely see another hung parliament which means a possible Corbyn premiership even if the Tories win most seats.

He isn't called Bozo without reason.

Having won two London Mayoral elections and an EU referendum no other Tory matches him in electoral appeal

Which is of course principally a comment on all the other Tories.

david_herdson

SouthamObserver said:

Yorkcity said:

SouthamObserver said:

Yorkcity said:

SouthamObserver said:

For as long as Jeremy Corbyn is Labour leader the Tories will be fine. They'll be able to tear each other to pieces, preside over a stagnating economy and falling living standards, and an ongoing reduction in British power and standing, and they'll remain the biggest party in the House of Commons. Their real problems will not begin until the UK has left the EU and Labour has a new leader.

I think you are correct.However every call you have made on Corbyn from winning the Labour leadership in 2015, to the GE result in June 17 you and the great and good have been wrong.Do you ever question, that the post you rinse and repeat on every occasion could be wrong ?

I got Corbyn completely wrong - mainly because I did not trust my own view of May and thought that I must be missing something others were seeing. It turns out that May really was as bad as I had believed. That said, it seems pretty clear that at least 40% of the electorate will never vote for a party that Corbyn leads. Of course, if I am wrong the Tories are potentially in even more trouble than I think

I admit so did I.Could hardly believe the exit poll.It makes me very wary of predicting any result.Especially if the people who say they are Labour actually turnout in large numbers.

That exit poll was my political highlight of the last 10 years. I could not believe it and the joy it brought me as it turned out to be true was immense. What a night it was to see the electorate reject May's Brexit vision.

Except they didn't. For a so-called Brexit election, the subject hardly featured. There is an argument to say the electorate rejected the Tory manifesto - or the more controversial bits of it - though that has to be offset against the actual number of votes cast for the Conservatives, and also the vote share.

SouthamObserver

HYUFD said:

SouthamObserver said:

Yorkcity said:

SouthamObserver said:

Yorkcity said:

SouthamObserver said:

For as long as Jeremy Corbyn is Labour leader the Tories will be fine. They'll be able to tear each other to pieces, preside over a stagnating economy and falling living standards, and an ongoing reduction in British power and standing, and they'll remain the biggest party in the House of Commons. Their real problems will not begin until the UK has left the EU and Labour has a new leader.

I think you are correct.However every call you have made on Corbyn from winning the Labour leadership in 2015, to the GE result in June 17 you and the great and good have been wrong.Do you ever question, that the post you rinse and repeat on every occasion could be wrong ?

I got Corbyn completely wrong - mainly because I did not trust my own view of May and thought that I must be missing something others were seeing. It turns out that May really was as bad as I had believed. That said, it seems pretty clear that at least 40% of the electorate will never vote for a party that Corbyn leads. Of course, if I am wrong the Tories are potentially in even more trouble than I think

I admit so did I.Could hardly believe the exit poll.It makes me very wary of predicting any result.Especially if the people who say they are Labour actually turnout in large numbers.

That exit poll was my political highlight of the last 10 years. I could not believe it and the joy it brought me as it turned out to be true was immense. What a night it was to see the electorate reject May's Brexit vision.

Except Corbyn's Brexit 'vision' is now little different from May's

Thanks to the election May has certainly had to change tack and will no doubt continue to do so as we move towards the softest and fluffiest of Brexits.

david_herdson

HYUFD said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. HYUFD, London's going to be Labour next time, and Boris' association with it may not help the idea of him fly further north.

Boris does not need to win London or the North, he just needs to win back a few mainly Leave voting seats in the South and Midlands for a small Tory majority

He would, however, need to hold onto the existing Tory seats in the North, Wales, the SW and Scotland.

SouthamObserver

HYUFD said:

SouthamObserver said:

bigjohnowls said:

SouthamObserver said:

For as long as Jeremy Corbyn is Labour leader the Tories will be fine. They'll be able to tear each other to pieces, preside over a stagnating economy and falling living standards, and an ongoing reduction in British power and standing, and they'll remain the biggest party in the House of Commons. Their real problems will not begin until the UK has left the EU and Labour has a new leader.

Says the expert on Corbyn underestimation.

Who cant possibly be your MP again?

We have a Labour MP because unlike most parts of the Midlands, my bit voted Remain. The good people of Warwick & Leamington really haven't decided to embrace radical socialism. Instead, after going for the Tories in 2010 and giving them a bigger majority in 2015, they voted against the Hard, Red, White & Blue Brexit Theresa May offered to the British people in June. That's why Labour generally picked up most of its new seats and votes in relatively affluent, Remain-backing parts of the country and lost seats and support in mainly working class, Leave backing parts of the country.

Warwick and Leamington is now 21st on the Tories target list for the next general election, the Tories could win a majority of 1 next time and still lose Warwick and Leamington

http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative

Yep - it was quite a turnaround. And socialism had very little to do with it.

rpjs

SouthamObserver said:

HYUFD said:

SouthamObserver said:

Yorkcity said:

SouthamObserver said:

Yorkcity said:

SouthamObserver said:

For as long as Jeremy Corbyn is Labour leader the Tories will be fine. They'll be able to tear each other to pieces, preside over a stagnating economy and falling living standards, and an ongoing reduction in British power and standing, and they'll remain the biggest party in the House of Commons. Their real problems will not begin until the UK has left the EU and Labour has a new leader.

I think you are correct.However every call you have made on Corbyn from winning the Labour leadership in 2015, to the GE result in June 17 you and the great and good have been wrong.Do you ever question, that the post you rinse and repeat on every occasion could be wrong ?

I got Corbyn completely wrong - mainly because I did not trust my own view of May and thought that I must be missing something others were seeing. It turns out that May really was as bad as I had believed. That said, it seems pretty clear that at least 40% of the electorate will never vote for a party that Corbyn leads. Of course, if I am wrong the Tories are potentially in even more trouble than I think

I admit so did I.Could hardly believe the exit poll.It makes me very wary of predicting any result.Especially if the people who say they are Labour actually turnout in large numbers.

That exit poll was my political highlight of the last 10 years. I could not believe it and the joy it brought me as it turned out to be true was immense. What a night it was to see the electorate reject May's Brexit vision.

Except Corbyn's Brexit 'vision' is now little different from May's

Thanks to the election May has certainly had to change tack and will no doubt continue to do so as we move towards the softest and fluffiest of Brexits.

That would be EEA, and whilst HYUFD's continual echo of the Brexit deal having to exclude freedom of movement is very annoying, I have to concede that he is right that nothing including freedom of movement is likely to get past the Tory Party.

stevef

SouthamObserver said:

HYUFD said:

SouthamObserver said:

Yorkcity said:

SouthamObserver said:

Yorkcity said:

SouthamObserver said:

For as long as Jeremy Corbyn is Labour leader the Tories will be fine. They'll be able to tear each other to pieces, preside over a stagnating economy and falling living standards, and an ongoing reduction in British power and standing, and they'll remain the biggest party in the House of Commons. Their real problems will not begin until the UK has left the EU and Labour has a new leader.

I think you are correct.However every call you have made on Corbyn from winning the Labour leadership in 2015, to the GE result in June 17 you and the great and good have been wrong.Do you ever question, that the post you rinse and repeat on every occasion could be wrong ?

I got Corbyn completely wrong - mainly because I did not trust my own view of May and thought that I must be missing something others were seeing. It turns out that May really was as bad as I had believed. That said, it seems pretty clear that at least 40% of the electorate will never vote for a party that Corbyn leads. Of course, if I am wrong the Tories are potentially in even more trouble than I think

I admit so did I.Could hardly believe the exit poll.It makes me very wary of predicting any result.Especially if the people who say they are Labour actually turnout in large numbers.

That exit poll was my political highlight of the last 10 years. I could not believe it and the joy it brought me as it turned out to be true was immense. What a night it was to see the electorate reject May's Brexit vision.

Except Corbyn's Brexit 'vision' is now little different from May's

Thanks to the election May has certainly had to change tack and will no doubt continue to do so as we move towards the softest and fluffiest of Brexits.

Not the softest no. The softest would require the UK to accept freedom of movement. Neither party would dare do that. But a Norway minus freedom of movement deal with the UK aligned to EU regulations, but which allows us to make separate trade deals with other countries is the most likely outcome. If Remoaners want to call that "soft", so be it.

williamglenn

Simon said:

The difficulty with satisfying the resolute remainers seems to be that that involves remaining in the EU. If Brexit is to be inevitable, they seem intent on causing such a limp Brexit that we have the worst of both worlds, so they can then say "Told you so!".

Those dastardly Remainers with their stubborn reality bias.

Brexiteers: "We are an island!"
Remainers: "Actually we have a 310-mile land border with Ireland and also you might want to read the Good Friday Agreement..."

SouthamObserver

david_herdson said:

SouthamObserver said:

Yorkcity said:

SouthamObserver said:

Yorkcity said:

SouthamObserver said:

For as long as Jeremy Corbyn is Labour leader the Tories will be fine. They'll be able to tear each other to pieces, preside over a stagnating economy and falling living standards, and an ongoing reduction in British power and standing, and they'll remain the biggest party in the House of Commons. Their real problems will not begin until the UK has left the EU and Labour has a new leader.

I think you are correct.However every call you have made on Corbyn from winning the Labour leadership in 2015, to the GE result in June 17 you and the great and good have been wrong.Do you ever question, that the post you rinse and repeat on every occasion could be wrong ?

I got Corbyn completely wrong - mainly because I did not trust my own view of May and thought that I must be missing something others were seeing. It turns out that May really was as bad as I had believed. That said, it seems pretty clear that at least 40% of the electorate will never vote for a party that Corbyn leads. Of course, if I am wrong the Tories are potentially in even more trouble than I think

I admit so did I.Could hardly believe the exit poll.It makes me very wary of predicting any result.Especially if the people who say they are Labour actually turnout in large numbers.

That exit poll was my political highlight of the last 10 years. I could not believe it and the joy it brought me as it turned out to be true was immense. What a night it was to see the electorate reject May's Brexit vision.

Except they didn't. For a so-called Brexit election, the subject hardly featured. There is an argument to say the electorate rejected the Tory manifesto - or the more controversial bits of it - though that has to be offset against the actual number of votes cast for the Conservatives, and also the vote share.

The subject was defined in the run-up to the election being called. It was May on the White Cliffs of Dover standing four-square against the saboteurs, the citizens of nowhere, the enemies of the people and the meddling Commission. It wasn't just Tory voters that saw the headlines in the Mail, the Sun and the Express, and noted May's alignment with them. There was no need to say much during the campaign. It had already been said.

SouthamObserver

stevef said:

SouthamObserver said:

HYUFD said:

SouthamObserver said:

Yorkcity said:

SouthamObserver said:

Yorkcity said:

SouthamObserver said:

For as long as Jeremy Corbyn is Labour leader the Tories will be fine. They'll be able to tear each other to pieces, preside over a stagnating economy and falling living standards, and an ongoing reduction in British power and standing, and they'll remain the biggest party in the House of Commons. Their real problems will not begin until the UK has left the EU and Labour has a new leader.

I think you are correct.However every call you have made on Corbyn from winning the Labour leadership in 2015, to the GE result in June 17 you and the great and good have been wrong.Do you ever question, that the post you rinse and repeat on every occasion could be wrong ?

I got Corbyn completely wrong - mainly because I did not trust my own view of May and thought that I must be missing something others were seeing. It turns out that May really was as bad as I had believed. That said, it seems pretty clear that at least 40% of the electorate will never vote for a party that Corbyn leads. Of course, if I am wrong the Tories are potentially in even more trouble than I think

I admit so did I.Could hardly believe the exit poll.It makes me very wary of predicting any result.Especially if the people who say they are Labour actually turnout in large numbers.

That exit poll was my political highlight of the last 10 years. I could not believe it and the joy it brought me as it turned out to be true was immense. What a night it was to see the electorate reject May's Brexit vision.

Except Corbyn's Brexit 'vision' is now little different from May's

Thanks to the election May has certainly had to change tack and will no doubt continue to do so as we move towards the softest and fluffiest of Brexits.

Not the softest no. The softest would require the UK to accept freedom of movement. Neither party would dare do that. But a Norway minus freedom of movement deal with the UK aligned to EU regulations, but which allows us to make separate trade deals with other countries is the most likely outcome. If Remoaners want to call that "soft", so be it.

Ending freedom of movement covers a multitude of sins. We could restrict it tomorrow while remaining inside the EU, for example.

DM_Andy

HYUFD said:

Hammond and Javid have recently proposed a big housebuilding programme, Osborne's national living wage is coming in, £8 billion over this Parliament is going into the NHS and unemployment is at an all time low so there is plenty going on beyond Brexit.

Plus let us not forget 17 million people voted for Brexit, more than have ever voted Tory or Labour and indeed the Tories got 42.4% of the vote in June after Brexit, their highest voteshare at a general election since 1983.

You're absolutely right HYUFD, the Tories need not change their course one iota from right now and Theresa May can cruise to a landslide majority in 2022.

HYUFD

rpjs said:

SouthamObserver said:

HYUFD said:

SouthamObserver said:

Yorkcity said:

SouthamObserver said:

Yorkcity said:

SouthamObserver said:

For as long as Jeremy Corbyn is Labour leader the Tories will be fine. They'll be able to tear each other to pieces, preside over a stagnating economy and falling living standards, and an ongoing reduction in British power and standing, and they'll remain the biggest party in the House of Commons. Their real problems will not begin until the UK has left the EU and Labour has a new leader.

I think you are correct.However every call you have made on Corbyn from winning the Labour leadership in 2015, to the GE result in June 17 you and the great and good have been wrong.Do you ever question, that the post you rinse and repeat on every occasion could be wrong ?

I got Corbyn completely wrong - mainly because I did not trust my own view of May and thought that I must be missing something others were seeing. It turns out that May really was as bad as I had believed. That said, it seems pretty clear that at least 40% of the electorate will never vote for a party that Corbyn leads. Of course, if I am wrong the Tories are potentially in even more trouble than I think

I admit so did I.Could hardly believe the exit poll.It makes me very wary of predicting any result.Especially if the people who say they are Labour actually turnout in large numbers.

That exit poll was my political highlight of the last 10 years. I could not believe it and the joy it brought me as it turned out to be true was immense. What a night it was to see the electorate reject May's Brexit vision.

Except Corbyn's Brexit 'vision' is now little different from May's

Thanks to the election May has certainly had to change tack and will no doubt continue to do so as we move towards the softest and fluffiest of Brexits.

That would be EEA, and whilst HYUFD's continual echo of the Brexit deal having to exclude freedom of movement is very annoying, I have to concede that he is right that nothing including freedom of movement is likely to get past the Tory Party.

Nor voters in working class Labour Leave seats

Yorkcity

SouthamObserver said:

Yorkcity said:

SouthamObserver said:

Yorkcity said:

SouthamObserver said:

For as long as Jeremy Corbyn is Labour leader the Tories will be fine. They'll be able to tear each other to pieces, preside over a stagnating economy and falling living standards, and an ongoing reduction in British power and standing, and they'll remain the biggest party in the House of Commons. Their real problems will not begin until the UK has left the EU and Labour has a new leader.

I think you are correct.However every call you have made on Corbyn from winning the Labour leadership in 2015, to the GE result in June 17 you and the great and good have been wrong.Do you ever question, that the post you rinse and repeat on every occasion could be wrong ?

I got Corbyn completely wrong - mainly because I did not trust my own view of May and thought that I must be missing something others were seeing. It turns out that May really was as bad as I had believed. That said, it seems pretty clear that at least 40% of the electorate will never vote for a party that Corbyn leads. Of course, if I am wrong the Tories are potentially in even more trouble than I think

I admit so did I.Could hardly believe the exit poll.It makes me very wary of predicting any result.Especially if the people who say they are Labour actually turnout in large numbers.

That exit poll was my political highlight of the last 10 years. I could not believe it and the joy it brought me as it turned out to be true was immense. What a night it was to see the electorate reject May's Brexit vision.

It amazed me and brought home, that I knew not very much about today's politics.My two daughters and their partners all Corbyn supporters kept telling me it was not a forgone conclusion.My elderly father a lifetime conservative not voting for the first time in a GE because of the so called dementia tax.Labour people knocking on my door for the first time in 30 years.Still I thought Corbyn would get hammered .Every other GE I have lived through , did not shock me , this one did.

Recidivist

HYUFD said:

Recidivist said:

Of all the advantages the Tories have I'd always thought that their support in the press was the biggest and most valuable. But I wonder. I think it might explain why they seem to be so tin eared. A lot of them, including some posters on here, are under the impression that their views are mainstream and even majority. I guess that they see their worldview reflected in the media so much it is an easy mistake to make. That's got to adversely affect their judgement to some extent.

Most voters aren't Telegraph readers but they aren't Mirror readers either

That wasn't my point. When you talk to people it is obvious that they are a lot more thoughtful about things than the stereotypes pollsters, politicians and pundits bandy about would suggest.

SouthamObserver

rpjs said:

SouthamObserver said:

HYUFD said:

SouthamObserver said:

Yorkcity said:

SouthamObserver said:

Yorkcity said:

SouthamObserver said:

For as long as Jeremy Corbyn is Labour leader the Tories will be fine. They'll be able to tear each other to pieces, preside over a stagnating economy and falling living standards, and an ongoing reduction in British power and standing, and they'll remain the biggest party in the House of Commons. Their real problems will not begin until the UK has left the EU and Labour has a new leader.

I think you are correct.However every call you have made on Corbyn from winning the Labour leadership in 2015, to the GE result in June 17 you and the great and good have been wrong.Do you ever question, that the post you rinse and repeat on every occasion could be wrong ?

I got Corbyn completely wrong - mainly because I did not trust my own view of May and thought that I must be missing something others were seeing. It turns out that May really was as bad as I had believed. That said, it seems pretty clear that at least 40% of the electorate will never vote for a party that Corbyn leads. Of course, if I am wrong the Tories are potentially in even more trouble than I think

I admit so did I.Could hardly believe the exit poll.It makes me very wary of predicting any result.Especially if the people who say they are Labour actually turnout in large numbers.

That exit poll was my political highlight of the last 10 years. I could not believe it and the joy it brought me as it turned out to be true was immense. What a night it was to see the electorate reject May's Brexit vision.

Except Corbyn's Brexit 'vision' is now little different from May's

Thanks to the election May has certainly had to change tack and will no doubt continue to do so as we move towards the softest and fluffiest of Brexits.

That would be EEA, and whilst HYUFD's continual echo of the Brexit deal having to exclude freedom of movement is very annoying, I have to concede that he is right that nothing including freedom of movement is likely to get past the Tory Party.

Depends how you define freedom of movement, of course. I completely agree that whatever we end up with will not be called that. But I am yet to be persuaded that it will look that different to what we do actually have - or at least could have had if we had chosen it.

HYUFD

SouthamObserver said:

HYUFD said:

SouthamObserver said:

bigjohnowls said:

SouthamObserver said:

For as long as Jeremy Corbyn is Labour leader the Tories will be fine. They'll be able to tear each other to pieces, preside over a stagnating economy and falling living standards, and an ongoing reduction in British power and standing, and they'll remain the biggest party in the House of Commons. Their real problems will not begin until the UK has left the EU and Labour has a new leader.

Says the expert on Corbyn underestimation.

Who cant possibly be your MP again?

We have a Labour MP because unlike most parts of the Midlands, my bit voted Remain. The good people of Warwick & Leamington really haven't decided to embrace radical socialism. Instead, after going for the Tories in 2010 and giving them a bigger majority in 2015, they voted against the Hard, Red, White & Blue Brexit Theresa May offered to the British people in June. That's why Labour generally picked up most of its new seats and votes in relatively affluent, Remain-backing parts of the country and lost seats and support in mainly working class, Leave backing parts of the country.

Warwick and Leamington is now 21st on the Tories target list for the next general election, the Tories could win a majority of 1 next time and still lose Warwick and Leamington

http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative

Yep - it was quite a turnaround. And socialism had very little to do with it.

Though tuition fees and the student vote did

williamglenn

david_herdson said:

SouthamObserver said:

That exit poll was my political highlight of the last 10 years. I could not believe it and the joy it brought me as it turned out to be true was immense. What a night it was to see the electorate reject May's Brexit vision.

Except they didn't. For a so-called Brexit election, the subject hardly featured. There is an argument to say the electorate rejected the Tory manifesto - or the more controversial bits of it - though that has to be offset against the actual number of votes cast for the Conservatives, and also the vote share.

The significance of the result was the total rejection of any notion that Brexit represented the general will to which everything else should be subsumed. Remember this passage of May's speech when she called the election:

"At this moment of enormous national significance there should be unity here in Westminster, but instead there is division. The country is coming together, but Westminster is not.

"In recent weeks Labour has threatened to vote against the final agreement we reach with the European Union. The Liberal Democrats have said they want to grind the business of government to a standstill.

"The Scottish National Party say they will vote against the legislation that formally repeals Britain's membership of the European Union. And unelected members of the House of Lords have vowed to fight us every step of the way.

"Our opponents believe because the government's majority is so small, that our resolve will weaken and that they can force us to change course. They are wrong."

HYUFD

david_herdson said:

HYUFD said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. HYUFD, London's going to be Labour next time, and Boris' association with it may not help the idea of him fly further north.

Boris does not need to win London or the North, he just needs to win back a few mainly Leave voting seats in the South and Midlands for a small Tory majority

He would, however, need to hold onto the existing Tory seats in the North, Wales, the SW and Scotland.

He would hold onto those seats in all likelihood, even if in Scotland only on an anti SNP vote

stevef

The 2022 election will be different from the 2017 election. The Brexit deal will be done, the Tories will have a new leader. Older Tories who abstained in 2017 will turn out in their legions to stop Corbyn.

Labour cannot win a general election under Corbyn no matter how dire the Tories are. Corbyn piles up useless votes in seats that Labour already holds, but apart from university seats, he has no appeal to the voters in marginal constituencies in Middle England, which any winning party must capture.

HYUFD

DM_Andy said:

HYUFD said:

Hammond and Javid have recently proposed a big housebuilding programme, Osborne's national living wage is coming in, £8 billion over this Parliament is going into the NHS and unemployment is at an all time low so there is plenty going on beyond Brexit.

Plus let us not forget 17 million people voted for Brexit, more than have ever voted Tory or Labour and indeed the Tories got 42.4% of the vote in June after Brexit, their highest voteshare at a general election since 1983.

You're absolutely right HYUFD, the Tories need not change their course one iota from right now and Theresa May can cruise to a landslide majority in 2022.

No Tory leader will win a landslide after 12 years in power but they may be able to keep Corbyn out

HYUFD

SouthamObserver said:

stevef said:

SouthamObserver said:

HYUFD said:

SouthamObserver said:

Yorkcity said:

SouthamObserver said:

Yorkcity said:

SouthamObserver said:

For as long as Jeremy Corbyn is Labour leader the Tories will be fine. They'll be able to tear each other to pieces, preside over a stagnating economy and falling living standards, and an ongoing reduction in British power and standing, and they'll remain the biggest party in the House of Commons. Their real problems will not begin until the UK has left the EU and Labour has a new leader.

I think you are correct.However every call you have made on Corbyn from winning the Labour leadership in 2015, to the GE result in June 17 you and the great and good have been wrong.Do you ever question, that the post you rinse and repeat on every occasion could be wrong ?

I got Corbyn completely wrong - mainly because I did not trust my own view of May and thought that I must be missing something others were seeing. It turns out that May really was as bad as I had believed. That said, it seems pretty clear that at least 40% of the electorate will never vote for a party that Corbyn leads. Of course, if I am wrong the Tories are potentially in even more trouble than I think

I admit so did I.Could hardly believe the exit poll.It makes me very wary of predicting any result.Especially if the people who say they are Labour actually turnout in large numbers.

That exit poll was my political highlight of the last 10 years. I could not believe it and the joy it brought me as it turned out to be true was immense. What a night it was to see the electorate reject May's Brexit vision.

Except Corbyn's Brexit 'vision' is now little different from May's

Thanks to the election May has certainly had to change tack and will no doubt continue to do so as we move towards the softest and fluffiest of Brexits.

Not the softest no. The softest would require the UK to accept freedom of movement. Neither party would dare do that. But a Norway minus freedom of movement deal with the UK aligned to EU regulations, but which allows us to make separate trade deals with other countries is the most likely outcome. If Remoaners want to call that "soft", so be it.

Ending freedom of movement covers a multitude of sins. We could restrict it tomorrow while remaining inside the EU, for example.

The best restriction we could have adopted, transition controls with EU expansion in 2004, Blair failed to adopt

MJW

DM_Andy said:

HYUFD said:

Hammond and Javid have recently proposed a big housebuilding programme, Osborne's national living wage is coming in, £8 billion over this Parliament is going into the NHS and unemployment is at an all time low so there is plenty going on beyond Brexit.

Plus let us not forget 17 million people voted for Brexit, more than have ever voted Tory or Labour and indeed the Tories got 42.4% of the vote in June after Brexit, their highest voteshare at a general election since 1983.

You're absolutely right HYUFD, the Tories need not change their course one iota from right now and Theresa May can cruise to a landslide majority in 2022.

But 16 million voted against, and Labour's vote share also increased as the country is so divided. Older, traditionally Labour voters enthusiasm for anyone who delivers Brexit is matched, if not more so by younger, socially liberal voters who will never forgive them for it. They're extremely lucky to be up against Corbyn because a Labour leader who liberal Tories didn't find horrifying - even a relatively left-wing one, would be filleting off votes and business backing faster than a Fugu chef.

stevef

HYUFD said:

SouthamObserver said:

HYUFD said:

SouthamObserver said:

bigjohnowls said:

SouthamObserver said:

For as long as Jeremy Corbyn is Labour leader the Tories will be fine. They'll be able to tear each other to pieces, preside over a stagnating economy and falling living standards, and an ongoing reduction in British power and standing, and they'll remain the biggest party in the House of Commons. Their real problems will not begin until the UK has left the EU and Labour has a new leader.

Says the expert on Corbyn underestimation.

Who cant possibly be your MP again?

We have a Labour MP because unlike most parts of the Midlands, my bit voted Remain. The good people of Warwick & Leamington really haven't decided to embrace radical socialism. Instead, after going for the Tories in 2010 and giving them a bigger majority in 2015, they voted against the Hard, Red, White & Blue Brexit Theresa May offered to the British people in June. That's why Labour generally picked up most of its new seats and votes in relatively affluent, Remain-backing parts of the country and lost seats and support in mainly working class, Leave backing parts of the country.

Warwick and Leamington is now 21st on the Tories target list for the next general election, the Tories could win a majority of 1 next time and still lose Warwick and Leamington

http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative

Yep - it was quite a turnaround. And socialism had very little to do with it.

Though tuition fees and the student vote did

The number of older Tories who abstained, exceeds the younger voters who voted for the first time.

rural_voter

Y0kel said:

IS

In their usual seasonal missives of goodwill, IS related outlets have been calling for attacks for Western countries between Christmas and New Year festive period. They really mean it, it'd be a nice shot in the arm.

To vary the tactics a bit, the thinking is that centrally planned efforts are going to be increasingly contracted out to non residents. Its a confusion tactic, a Brit drops into Germany a French resident to London. This tactic has already been used and its value is considered worthwhile. Meanwhile at home, the Somali community are of particular concern right now.

Trumpton.

It should be noted that ex-spooks of US Intelligence, i.e. not the FBI, have been increasingly coming out of the cracks to publicly state that the President is in effect a Russian agent. The current spooks can say nothing, because they are the ones holding a lot of information.

Again, this investigation will eventually reach figures at home. A lot of money has been circulating, a lot.

Watergate, named after the 'Watergate Hotel', took almost 3 years to get to a resignation. That would take us to the next US election.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/politics/wp/2017/05/15/how-america-viewed-the-watergate-scandal-as-it-was-unfolding/?utm_term=.bd6e3f7a3158

Do you think it's most likely that Trump will be impeached, resign or just not stand for a 2nd term?

SouthamObserver

Yorkcity said:

SouthamObserver said:

Yorkcity said:

SouthamObserver said:

Yorkcity said:

SouthamObserver said:

For as long as Jeremy Corbyn is Labour leader the Tories will be fine. They'll be able to tear each other to pieces, preside over a stagnating economy and falling living standards, and an ongoing reduction in British power and standing, and they'll remain the biggest party in the House of Commons. Their real problems will not begin until the UK has left the EU and Labour has a new leader.

I think you are correct.However every call you have made on Corbyn from winning the Labour leadership in 2015, to the GE result in June 17 you and the great and good have been wrong.Do you ever question, that the post you rinse and repeat on every occasion could be wrong ?

I got Corbyn completely wrong - mainly because I did not trust my own view of May and thought that I must be missing something others were seeing. It turns out that May really was as bad as I had believed. That said, it seems pretty clear that at least 40% of the electorate will never vote for a party that Corbyn leads. Of course, if I am wrong the Tories are potentially in even more trouble than I think

I admit so did I.Could hardly believe the exit poll.It makes me very wary of predicting any result.Especially if the people who say they are Labour actually turnout in large numbers.

That exit poll was my political highlight of the last 10 years. I could not believe it and the joy it brought me as it turned out to be true was immense. What a night it was to see the electorate reject May's Brexit vision.

It amazed me and brought home, that I knew not very much about today's politics.My two daughters and their partners all Corbyn supporters kept telling me it was not a forgone conclusion.My elderly father a lifetime conservative not voting for the first time in a GE because of the so called dementia tax.Labour people knocking on my door for the first time in 30 years.Still I thought Corbyn would get hammered .Every other GE I have lived through , did not shock me , this one did.

Ditto. My kids were all Corbynistas and I was especially delighted for my daughter, who got completely wrapped up in it and was insistent Labour would so a whole lot better than I said they would. Her first serious contact with politics was not complete disillusionment, which has to be a good thing. Mine was in 1983 and it pretty much shaped me.

Recidivist

HYUFD said:

SouthamObserver said:

stevef said:

SouthamObserver said:

HYUFD said:

SouthamObserver said:

Yorkcity said:

SouthamObserver said:

Yorkcity said:

SouthamObserver said:

For as long as Jeremy Corbyn is Labour leader the Tories will be fine. They'll be able to tear each other to pieces, preside over a stagnating economy and falling living standards, and an ongoing reduction in British power and standing, and they'll remain the biggest party in the House of Commons. Their real problems will not begin until the UK has left the EU and Labour has a new leader.

I

I

I admit so did I.Could hardly believe the exit poll.It makes me very wary of predicting any result.Especially if the people who say they are Labour actually turnout in large numbers.

That exit poll was my political highlight of the last 10 years. I could not believe it and the joy it brought me as it turned out to be true was immense. What a night it was to see the electorate reject May's Brexit vision.

Except Corbyn's Brexit 'vision' is now little different from May's

Thanks to the election May has certainly had to change tack and will no doubt continue to do so as we move towards the softest and fluffiest of Brexits.

Not the softest no. The softest would require the UK to accept freedom of movement. Neither party would dare do that. But a Norway minus freedom of movement deal with the UK aligned to EU regulations, but which allows us to make separate trade deals with other countries is the most likely outcome. If Remoaners want to call that "soft", so be it.

Ending freedom of movement covers a multitude of sins. We could restrict it tomorrow while remaining inside the EU, for example.

The best restriction we could have adopted, transition controls with EU expansion in 2004, Blair failed to adopt

Okay we are all agreed that Blair is a bad bad man. But why do you think he did that? And how come Mrs May as Home Secretary found controlling non-EU immigration so difficult? Immigration isn't popular, not even with recent immigrants, so why do politicians find it so difficult to control it? You'd have thought with so many votes to win they'd be over immigration control like a cheap suit. Why don't they?

Ishmael_Z

All kicking off in Iran: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-42512946

I knew nothing of this till it was the main headline on PM - still not making front page of bbc news website

HYUFD

Recidivist said:

HYUFD said:

SouthamObserver said:

stevef said:

SouthamObserver said:

HYUFD said:

SouthamObserver said:

Yorkcity said:

SouthamObserver said:

Yorkcity said:

SouthamObserver said:

For as long as Jeremy Corbyn is Labour leader the Tories will be fine. They'll be able to tear each other to pieces, preside over a stagnating economy and falling living standards, and an ongoing reduction in British power and standing, and they'll remain the biggest party in the House of Commons. Their real problems will not begin until the UK has left the EU and Labour has a new leader.

I

I

I admit so did I.Could hardly believe the exit poll.It makes me very wary of predicting any result.Especially if the people who say they are Labour actually turnout in large numbers.

That exit poll was my political highlight of the last 10 years. I could not believe it and the joy it brought me as it turned out to be true was immense. What a night it was to see the electorate reject May's Brexit vision.

Except Corbyn's Brexit 'vision' is now little different from May's

Thanks to the election May has certainly had to change tack and will no doubt continue to do so as we move towards the softest and fluffiest of Brexits.

Not the softest no. The softest would require the UK to accept freedom of movement. Neither party would dare do that. But a Norway minus freedom of movement deal with the UK aligned to EU regulations, but which allows us to make separate trade deals with other countries is the most likely outcome. If Remoaners want to call that "soft", so be it.

Ending freedom of movement covers a multitude of sins. We could restrict it tomorrow while remaining inside the EU, for example.

The best restriction we could have adopted, transition controls with EU expansion in 2004, Blair failed to adopt

Okay we are all agreed that Blair is a bad bad man. But why do you think he did that? And how come Mrs May as Home Secretary found controlling non-EU immigration so difficult? Immigration isn't popular, not even with recent immigrants, so why do politicians find it so difficult to control it? You'd have thought with so many votes to win they'd be over immigration control like a cheap suit. Why don't they?

Net immigration actually fell slightly from non EU countries under the Coalition and has fallen from the EU countries post Brexit

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/10075761/Net-migration-to-the-UK-falls-by-a-third.html

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-39062436

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Z, cheers for posting that.

Reminds me of a few years ago, when they thought things might shift but ultimately the regime reasserted its authority.

dixiedean

Ishmael_Z said:

All kicking off in Iran: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-42512946

I knew nothing of this till it was the main headline on PM - still not making front page of bbc news website

Me neither. Sounds Arab Spring like. Early days.

kyf_100

Y0kel said:

IS

In their usual seasonal missives of goodwill, IS related outlets have been calling for attacks for Western countries between Christmas and New Year festive period. They really mean it, it'd be a nice shot in the arm.

To vary the tactics a bit, the thinking is that centrally planned efforts are going to be increasingly contracted out to non residents. Its a confusion tactic, a Brit drops into Germany a French resident to London. This tactic has already been used and its value is considered worthwhile. Meanwhile at home, the Somali community are of particular concern right now.

Trumpton.

It should be noted that ex-spooks of US Intelligence, i.e. not the FBI, have been increasingly coming out of the cracks to publicly state that the President is in effect a Russian agent. The current spooks can say nothing, because they are the ones holding a lot of information.

Again, this investigation will eventually reach figures at home. A lot of money has been circulating, a lot.

Spooks, particularly ex-spooks, rank somewhere around the level of estate agents and lawyers on the level of people I would trust.

Casino_Royale

SouthamObserver said:

david_herdson said:

SouthamObserver said:

Yorkcity said:

SouthamObserver said:

Yorkcity said:

SouthamObserver said:

For as long as Jeremy Corbyn is Labour leader the Tories will be fine. They'll be able to tear each other to pieces, preside over a stagnating economy and falling living standards, and an ongoing reduction in British power and standing, and they'll remain the biggest party in the House of Commons. Their real problems will not begin until the UK has left the EU and Labour has a new leader.

I think you are correct.However every call you have made on Corbyn from winning the Labour leadership in 2015, to the GE result in June 17 you and the great and good have been wrong.Do you ever question, that the post you rinse and repeat on every occasion could be wrong ?

I got Corbyn completely wrong - mainly because I did not trust my own view of May and thought that I must be missing something others were seeing. It turns out that May really was as bad as I had believed. That said, it seems pretty clear that at least 40% of the electorate will never vote for a party that Corbyn leads. Of course, if I am wrong the Tories are potentially in even more trouble than I think

I admit so did I.Could hardly believe the exit poll.It makes me very wary of predicting any result.Especially if the people who say they are Labour actually turnout in large numbers.

That exit poll was my political highlight of the last 10 years. I could not believe it and the joy it brought me as it turned out to be true was immense. What a night it was to see the electorate reject May's Brexit vision.

Except they didn't. For a so-called Brexit election, the subject hardly featured. There is an argument to say the electorate rejected the Tory manifesto - or the more controversial bits of it - though that has to be offset against the actual number of votes cast for the Conservatives, and also the vote share.

The subject was defined in the run-up to the election being called. It was May on the White Cliffs of Dover standing four-square against the saboteurs, the citizens of nowhere, the enemies of the people and the meddling Commission. It wasn't just Tory voters that saw the headlines in the Mail, the Sun and the Express, and noted May's alignment with them. There was no need to say much during the campaign. It had already been said.

In hindsight, I think much of that was a mistake.

Casino_Royale

SouthamObserver said:

stevef said:

SouthamObserver said:

HYUFD said:

SouthamObserver said:

Yorkcity said:

SouthamObserver said:

Yorkcity said:

SouthamObserver said:

For as long as Jeremy Corbyn is Labour leader the Tories will be fine. They'll be able to tear each other to pieces, preside over a stagnating economy and falling living standards, and an ongoing reduction in British power and standing, and they'll remain the biggest party in the House of Commons. Their real problems will not begin until the UK has left the EU and Labour has a new leader.

I think you are correct.However every call you have made on Corbyn from winning the Labour leadership in 2015, to the GE result in June 17 you and the great and good have

I admit so did I.Could hardly believe the exit poll.It makes me very wary of predicting any result.Especially if the people who say they are Labour actually turnout in large numbers.

That exit poll was my political highlight of the last 10 years. I could not believe it and the joy it brought me as it turned out to be true was immense. What a night it was to see the electorate reject May's Brexit vision.

Except Corbyn's Brexit 'vision' is now little different from May's

Thanks to the election May has certainly had to change tack and will no doubt continue to do so as we move towards the softest and fluffiest of Brexits.

Not the softest no. The softest would require the UK to accept freedom of movement. Neither party would dare do that. But a Norway minus freedom of movement deal with the UK aligned to EU regulations, but which allows us to make separate trade deals with other countries is the most likely outcome. If Remoaners want to call that "soft", so be it.

Ending freedom of movement covers a multitude of sins. We could restrict it tomorrow while remaining inside the EU, for example.

How?

I find it fascinating how many now argue that what we want to do post Brexit (blue passports and immigration restrictions) could have been done had we remained anyway.

If there was a way David Cameron would have bitten your hand off in the final month of the campaign when Remain was heavily losing on that line. Precisely no-one argued this prior to the vote.

Recidivist

HYUFD said:

Recidivist said:

HYUFD said:

SouthamObserver said:

stevef said:

SouthamObserver said:

HYUFD said:

SouthamObserver said:

Yorkcity said:

SouthamObserver said:

Yorkcity said:

SouthamObserver said:

For as long as Jeremy Corbyn is Labour leader the Tories will be fine. They'll be able to tear each other to pieces, preside over a stagnating economy and falling living standards, and an ongoing reduction in British power and standing, and they'll remain the biggest party in the House of Commons. Their real problems will not begin until the UK has left the EU and Labour has a new leader.

I

I

I

That exit poll was my political highlight of the last 10 years. I could not believe it and the joy it brought me as it turned out to be true was immense. What a night it was to see the electorate reject May's Brexit vision.

Except Corbyn's Brexit 'vision' is now little different from May's

Thanks to the election May has certainly had to change tack and will no doubt continue to do so as we move towards the softest and fluffiest of Brexits.

Not the softest no. The softest would require the UK to accept freedom of movement. Neither party would dare do that. But a Norway minus freedom of movement deal with the UK aligned to EU regulations, but which allows us to make separate trade deals with other countries is the most likely outcome. If Remoaners want to call that "soft", so be it.

Ending freedom of movement covers a multitude of sins. We could restrict it tomorrow while remaining inside the EU, for example.

The best restriction we could have adopted, transition controls with EU expansion in 2004, Blair failed to adopt

Okay we are all agreed that Blair is a bad bad man. But why do you think he did that? And how come Mrs May as Home Secretary found controlling non-EU immigration so difficult? Immigration isn't popular, not even with recent immigrants, so why do politicians find it so difficult to control it? You'd have thought with so many votes to win they'd be over immigration control like a cheap suit. Why don't they?

Net immigration actually fell slightly from non EU countries under the Coalition and has fallen from the EU countries post Brexit

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/10075761/Net-migration-to-the-UK-falls-by-a-third.html

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-39062436

And that's a good thing?

Casino_Royale

SouthamObserver said:

Yorkcity said:

SouthamObserver said:

Yorkcity said:

SouthamObserver said:

For as long as Jeremy Corbyn is Labour leader the Tories will be fine. They'll be able to tear each other to pieces, preside over a stagnating economy and falling living standards, and an ongoing reduction in British power and standing, and they'll remain the biggest party in the House of Commons. Their real problems will not begin until the UK has left the EU and Labour has a new leader.

I think you are correct.However every call you have made on Corbyn from winning the Labour leadership in 2015, to the GE result in June 17 you and the great and good have been wrong.Do you ever question, that the post you rinse and repeat on every occasion could be wrong ?

I got Corbyn completely wrong - mainly because I did not trust my own view of May and thought that I must be missing something others were seeing. It turns out that May really was as bad as I had believed. That said, it seems pretty clear that at least 40% of the electorate will never vote for a party that Corbyn leads. Of course, if I am wrong the Tories are potentially in even more trouble than I think

I admit so did I.Could hardly believe the exit poll.It makes me very wary of predicting any result.Especially if the people who say they are Labour actually turnout in large numbers.

That exit poll was my political highlight of the last 10 years. I could not believe it and the joy it brought me as it turned out to be true was immense. What a night it was to see the electorate reject May's Brexit vision.

I felt the precise opposite. Probably the most stressful night of my life.

Casino_Royale

Y0kel said:

IS

In their usual seasonal missives of goodwill, IS related outlets have been calling for attacks for Western countries between Christmas and New Year festive period. They really mean it, it'd be a nice shot in the arm.

To vary the tactics a bit, the thinking is that centrally planned efforts are going to be increasingly contracted out to non residents. Its a confusion tactic, a Brit drops into Germany a French resident to London. This tactic has already been used and its value is considered worthwhile. Meanwhile at home, the Somali community are of particular concern right now.

Trumpton.

It should be noted that ex-spooks of US Intelligence, i.e. not the FBI, have been increasingly coming out of the cracks to publicly state that the President is in effect a Russian agent. The current spooks can say nothing, because they are the ones holding a lot of information.

Again, this investigation will eventually reach figures at home. A lot of money has been circulating, a lot.

If he is I'm not quite clear where and how he's operating in Russia's interests.

His moves on NATO and Syria haven't exactly been Kremlin friendly.

stevef

Good to see that so many people, especially the young, were so ecstatic at Labour's third successive defeat with a tally of seats about the same as Gordon Brown in 2010, with the Tory share of the vote the highest in 30 years, and May getting more seats than Cameron in 2010.

In 2022, these people I suspect will be breaking open the champagne and doing another lap of honour as the exit poll reveals Labour's fourth successive defea as a result of the dire Mr Corbyn.

I have to say however as a Labour supporter of 40 years, that in my day, you celebrated when Labour actually won general elections. Corbyn did not even come close to winningin seats in 2017, and will not do so in 2022 because his extremism makes him unattractive to marginal voters in middle England. And believe me, those older voters who abstained in 2017 because of the dementia tax will be queueing round the corner to vote next time. And the number of older voters who did not vote in 2017 far exceeds the number of new younger voters.

Enjoy the lap of honour to celebrate Labour's defeat in 2017, you have a hard lesson to learn in 2022.

Casino_Royale

Sean_F said:

IanB2 said:

The Conservatives' USPs are supposed to be sound stewardship of the economy, and resisting any radical change until the very last moment. Yet they are about to imperil the economy and thrust upon us a radical and hitherto untested change in the political and economic environment of our nation. There is every likelihood that, when the true implications of their actions become apparent, we won't see another Tory government for a considerable period of time.

On the other hand, delivering Brexit, and not being Corbyn may well be quite sufficient to deliver 40-44% of the vote in 2022.

The Tories need to map out a positive optimistic vision of the UK post Brexit that uses the new powers and is open and generous. Most likely under a new leader.

Do that and they could win GE2022 outright, even on a small swing.

Recidivist

Casino_Royale said:

Sean_F said:

IanB2 said:

The Conservatives' USPs are supposed to be sound stewardship of the economy, and resisting any radical change until the very last moment. Yet they are about to imperil the economy and thrust upon us a radical and hitherto untested change in the political and economic environment of our nation. There is every likelihood that, when the true implications of their actions become apparent, we won't see another Tory government for a considerable period of time.

On the other hand, delivering Brexit, and not being Corbyn may well be quite sufficient to deliver 40-44% of the vote in 2022.

The Tories need to map out a positive optimistic vision of the UK post Brexit that uses the new powers and is open and generous. Most likely under a new leader.

Do that and they could win GE2022 outright, even on a small swing.

Agreed. But is there any indication they can do so?

dixiedean

stevef said:

Good to see that so many people, especially the young, were so ecstatic at Labour's third successive defeat with a tally of seats about the same as Gordon Brown in 2010, with the Tory share of the vote the highest in 30 years, and May getting more seats than Cameron in 2010.

In 2022, these people I suspect will be breaking open the champagne and doing another lap of honour as the exit poll reveals Labour's fourth successive defea as a result of the dire Mr Corbyn.

I have to say however as a Labour supporter of 40 years, that in my day, you celebrated when Labour actually won general elections. Corbyn did not even come close to winningin seats in 2017, and will not do so in 2022 because his extremism makes him unattractive to marginal voters in middle England. And believe me, those older voters who abstained in 2017 because of the dementia tax will be queueing round the corner to vote next time. And the number of older voters who did not vote in 2017 far exceeds the number of new younger voters.

Enjoy the lap of honour to celebrate Labour's defeat in 2017, you have a hard lesson to learn in 2022.

Who exactly were these people ecstatic at defeat? I haven't met any.
There were many who were pleased that the result exceeded pretty much everyone's expectations.
But I saw no laps of honour.
I do see a lot of people continuing to fundamentally underestimate the effects of falling real wages and the ludicrous cost of housing, and how that, rather than Corbyn or the minutiae of Brexit negotiations drives voting behaviour.
I also see many who believe 2017 was an error by the voters, who will, in due course, see sense.

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/946789575611035648

https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/946789433533231106

Sean_F

williamglenn said:

david_herdson said:

SouthamObserver said:

That exit poll was my political highlight of the last 10 years. I could not believe it and the joy it brought me as it turned out to be true was immense. What a night it was to see the electorate reject May's Brexit vision.

Except they didn't. For a so-called Brexit election, the subject hardly featured. There is an argument to say the electorate rejected the Tory manifesto - or the more controversial bits of it - though that has to be offset against the actual number of votes cast for the Conservatives, and also the vote share.

The significance of the result was the total rejection of any notion that Brexit represented the general will to which everything else should be subsumed. Remember this passage of May's speech when she called the election:

"At this moment of enormous national significance there should be unity here in Westminster, but instead there is division. The country is coming together, but Westminster is not.

"In recent weeks Labour has threatened to vote against the final agreement we reach with the European Union. The Liberal Democrats have said they want to grind the business of government to a standstill.

"The Scottish National Party say they will vote against the legislation that formally repeals Britain's membership of the European Union. And unelected members of the House of Lords have vowed to fight us every step of the way.

"Our opponents believe because the government's majority is so small, that our resolve will weaken and that they can force us to change course. They are wrong."

Yet, the government has won all but one vote on EU-related business. They didn't get the majority they wanted, but they won enough.

CarlottaVance

https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/946463439437877248

CarlottaVance

Not sure Lord Adonis has quite got the hang of this 'democracy' thing:

Brexit is a dangerous populist and nationalist spasm worthy of Donald Trump. After the narrow referendum vote for an undefined proposition to ‘leave the EU,’ it could have been attempted without rupturing our essential European trade and political relations. However, by becoming the voice of UKIP and the extreme nationalist right-wing of your party, you have taken a different course, for which you have no parliamentary or popular mandate.

A responsible government should be seeking to persuade the British people to stay in Europe while also tackling, with massive vigour, the social and economic problems within Britain which led to the narrow referendum result of eighteen months ago, particularly in our many desperately poor towns, cities and regions.

https://order-order.com/2017/12/29/adonis-shouty-crackers-resignation-letter-in-full/

Casino_Royale

Recidivist said:

Casino_Royale said:

Sean_F said:

IanB2 said:

The Conservatives' USPs are supposed to be sound stewardship of the economy, and resisting any radical change until the very last moment. Yet they are about to imperil the economy and thrust upon us a radical and hitherto untested change in the political and economic environment of our nation. There is every likelihood that, when the true implications of their actions become apparent, we won't see another Tory government for a considerable period of time.

On the other hand, delivering Brexit, and not being Corbyn may well be quite sufficient to deliver 40-44% of the vote in 2022.

The Tories need to map out a positive optimistic vision of the UK post Brexit that uses the new powers and is open and generous. Most likely under a new leader.

Do that and they could win GE2022 outright, even on a small swing.

Agreed. But is there any indication they can do so?

Current indications are the two main voting blocs are static. But, four years in politics is an eternity and Corbyn's Labour risks falling to the same hubris May did.I

No-one wants to go back to the 1970s. I'd say the trick would be to frame the choice on economics and public policy between that and the 21stC in GE2022, fronted by someone relatively untarnished by Brexit either way.

Yorkcity

Recidivist said:

Casino_Royale said:

Sean_F said:

IanB2 said:

The Conservatives' USPs are supposed to be sound stewardship of the economy, and resisting any radical change until the very last moment. Yet they are about to imperil the economy and thrust upon us a radical and hitherto untested change in the political and economic environment of our nation. There is every likelihood that, when the true implications of their actions become apparent, we won't see another Tory government for a considerable period of time.

On the other hand, delivering Brexit, and not being Corbyn may well be quite sufficient to deliver 40-44% of the vote in 2022.

The Tories need to map out a positive optimistic vision of the UK post Brexit that uses the new powers and is open and generous. Most likely under a new leader.

Do that and they could win GE2022 outright, even on a small swing.

Agreed. But is there any indication they can do so?

Yes the Conservatives are always pragmatic to gain or remain in power .They change when they have to.They fought tooth and nail over the minimum wage in the 90s ,now you would think it was their policy always .The same with gay rights to name but two examples.If it is in their interest to offer a referendum on the EU deal they will do it.

Sean_F

CarlottaVance said:

Not sure Lord Adonis has quite got the hang of this 'democracy' thing:

Brexit is a dangerous populist and nationalist spasm worthy of Donald Trump. After the narrow referendum vote for an undefined proposition to ‘leave the EU,’ it could have been attempted without rupturing our essential European trade and political relations. However, by becoming the voice of UKIP and the extreme nationalist right-wing of your party, you have taken a different course, for which you have no parliamentary or popular mandate.

A responsible government should be seeking to persuade the British people to stay in Europe while also tackling, with massive vigour, the social and economic problems within Britain which led to the narrow referendum result of eighteen months ago, particularly in our many desperately poor towns, cities and regions.

https://order-order.com/2017/12/29/adonis-shouty-crackers-resignation-letter-in-full/

Nobody is indispensable.

stevef

dixiedean said:

stevef said:

Good to see that so many people, especially the young, were so ecstatic at Labour's third successive defeat with a tally of seats about the same as Gordon Brown in 2010, with the Tory share of the vote the highest in 30 years, and May getting more seats than Cameron in 2010.

In 2022, these people I suspect will be breaking open the champagne and doing another lap of honour as the exit poll reveals Labour's fourth successive defea as a result of the dire Mr Corbyn.

I have to say however as a Labour supporter of 40 years, that in my day, you celebrated when Labour actually won general elections. Corbyn did not even come close to winningin seats in 2017, and will not do so in 2022 because his extremism makes him unattractive to marginal voters in middle England. And believe me, those older voters who abstained in 2017 because of the dementia tax will be queueing round the corner to vote next time. And the number of older voters who did not vote in 2017 far exceeds the number of new younger voters.

Enjoy the lap of honour to celebrate Labour's defeat in 2017, you have a hard lesson to learn in 2022.

Who exactly were these people ecstatic at defeat? I haven't met any.
There were many who were pleased that the result exceeded pretty much everyone's expectations.
But I saw no laps of honour.
I do see a lot of people continuing to fundamentally underestimate the effects of falling real wages and the ludicrous cost of housing, and how that, rather than Corbyn or the minutiae of Brexit negotiations drives voting behaviour.
I also see many who believe 2017 was an error by the voters, who will, in due course, see sense.

Read some of the comments on here with its "one more heave" mentality. Look at some of the videos on Youtube of the hubristic Labour conference. Listen to the songs to Corbyn.

Your last sentence bears me out. 2017 saw Labour lose its third successive general election defeat with a tally of seats little higher than when it lost power under Gordon Brown in 2010. It saw the Tory vote rise to Margaret Thatcher levels in 1987. The voters did that.

Today's Corbynistas may well see exceeding the rock bottom expectations as being a cause of celebration (and lets not forget Corbyn himself believed he was leading Labour to catastrophic defeat but was prepared to continue over the abyss). But in my day we celebrated Labour victories and did not go into a state of hubris at yet another defeat.

LordWakefield

Wow just Wow thread now looking a little dated. Keep backing the metropolitan wet dream of impeachment and the rational money will keep laying.

https://twitter.com/DRUDGE/status/946392234403991552

rpjs

LordWakefield said:

Wow just Wow thread now looking a little dated. Keep backing the metropolitan wet dream of impeachment and the rational money will keep laying.

twitter.com/DRUDGE/status/946392234403991552

Is that comparing Rasmussen with Rasmussen though?

geoffw

CarlottaVance said:

Not sure Lord Adonis has quite got the hang of this 'democracy' thing:

Brexit is a dangerous populist and nationalist spasm worthy of Donald Trump. After the narrow referendum vote for an undefined proposition to ‘leave the EU,’ it could have been attempted without rupturing our essential European trade and political relations. However, by becoming the voice of UKIP and the extreme nationalist right-wing of your party, you have taken a different course, for which you have no parliamentary or popular mandate.

A responsible government should be seeking to persuade the British people to stay in Europe while also tackling, with massive vigour, the social and economic problems within Britain which led to the narrow referendum result of eighteen months ago, particularly in our many desperately poor towns, cities and regions.

https://order-order.com/2017/12/29/adonis-shouty-crackers-resignation-letter-in-full/

Adonis favours the Platonic government of a wise aristocracy.

ydoethur

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/946789575611035648

https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/946789433533231106

If he was as preternaturally useless in that role as he was when Tony Blair's education guru, he won't be any loss.

RobD

rpjs said:

LordWakefield said:

Wow just Wow thread now looking a little dated. Keep backing the metropolitan wet dream of impeachment and the rational money will keep laying.

twitter.com/DRUDGE/status/946392234403991552

Is that comparing Rasmussen with Rasmussen though?

Looks like it (at least compared to the last poll in December 2009):

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/obama_approval_index_history