politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Will the other affiliated unions follow the GMB’s lead?
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Will the other affiliated unions follow the GMB’s lead?
In the past week, whilst it has felt that there’s nothing happening in British politics other than Syria, yesterday saw a story that may have a crucial impact on the 2015 general election.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/09/03/uk-norway-election-idUKBRE9820GS20130903
"And though you can just about see how in a bad year Ed Miliband could become prime minister, what I cannot any longer pretend, after three years of his leadership, is that he would be a good one. On the contrary. I think he would be a disaster. Strangely, I think both the country and his party already know it."
If there was another Labour leadership election they would surely have to know which 150,000 members were affiliated as the GMB would presumably only be allowed to send out 150,000 ballot papers.
But then as someone once said: "If it were done when 'tis done, then 'twere well it were done quickly. On this basis, perhaps Laddies' price of 10/1 that he's gone by the year end offers the better value.
For Aaronovitch of all people to speak as bluntly of Miliband as he has in today's Times is nothing short of sensational.
I think we're moving into a new phase where their dislike of Cameron is being put to one side and they are going for a full scale "Kinnockisation" of Ed M - not just attacking Labour policies but constantly ramming home the message that he isn't fit to be PM.
The Daily Mail editorial a few days ago saying Cameron was by far the best person in the Conservative Party to be PM confirms this new phase - they've given up on trying to destabilise Cameron and are going 100% for Ed M.
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/khzjew55hw/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-040913.pdf
I suppose it's possible they'll have to run a leaner Euro campaign, but was money a big issue there in the first place?
Yesterday's App was -31 with a Labour lead of 4
Only one internal:
Do you support or oppose the Con/LD coalition?
Support: 29 (+1)
Oppose:60(-2)
BUT for the Cons:
Support: 53
Oppose: 42
which is less support than the LibDems:
Support: 67
Oppose: 30
If, and it’s a very big if, Miliband were to be toppled or, even less likely, if he were to resign before the next GE, who might succeed him?
Leaving aside the obvious favourites, none of which appear to me to offer any sort of betting value, and bearing in mind that the battleground is likely to be the economy stupid, then who better to be Labour’s standard bearer than the ever dependable and hugely respected …….. drum roll …… Alistair Darling.
The really good news is that those nice people at Hills have him on offer at 80/1 to be the next Prime Minister (twice the current odds available with Betfair) and curiously five times the 16/1 odds the same bookie is offering against Darling being Labour’s next leader.
An added bonus is that such a bet would have considerable residual value were Cameron to win the next General Election, probably thereby resulting in Miliband’s resignation – Labour would then be likely to look for a heavyweight leader with gravitas to take on Dave, rather than one of their young pretenders such as Chuka Umanna or, God help us, Rachel Reeves. Punters therefore effectively get two chances with this bet for the (generous) price of one, although in the latter case one might need to be somewhat patient before collecting!
DYOR.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-23967552
Is he learning from his master's mistakes?
"It's one of those silly puns so beloved by ad-men Roger......."
Ah!....thank you for that.
Jaffa nice day!
For my money PP's odds of 25/1 for Eric Pickles, tipped to take the non-cabinet position of Chief Whip, looks the best buy.
He's got previous. See Syria.
"At this rate we will have Labour collapsing in the stench of its own financial incompetence"
After messing around with puns I read that as 'faecial incontinence' and thought it must be the Irish poet in you....
"...Still, since his supposed friends are giving him such a kicking, perhaps we should not be too harsh to poor Mr Miliband. Behind all his trials and tribulations, there is a deeper issue at stake: the future of the Labour Party itself.
It is astonishing to think that even now, three years after losing power, Labour has still not decided what it stands for. Is it for deficit reduction, or against it? Does it support intervention overseas, or not? Would it really oppose a European referendum?
And above all, whom does it really represent? Britain’s 6.5 million trade unionists, marshalled by their general secretaries? Or somebody else?
We will, I suspect, be waiting an awfully long time before we get the answers to those questions. But by then, unless his fortunes undergo a miraculous recovery, Ed Miliband’s leadership may well belong to history.
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2411828/DOMINIC-SANDBROOK-Poor-floundering-Mr-Miliband-just-signed-political-death-warrant.html#ixzz2dzrNFZeB
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook
"...From the Coalition side there simply came a growl, a rumble of irritation, a restlessness. They were not inclined to regard Mr Miliband as a grown-up.
‘There is no difference across this House on the need to stand up for the innocent people of Syria,’ insisted Mr Miliband, fighting to control this mood of dissent. That claim proved too rich for several MPs. From where I was sitting, I saw arms crossed, mouths set in expressions of mutiny. Quite a few people looked at the floor while others inspected the ceiling.
‘The question at issue...’ continued Mr Miliband. But the Chamber was spilling into open dissent. Mr Miliband switched to a tone of rebuke. ‘The House has approached this issue, so far, in a calm and measured way, and we should carry on doing that,’ he said.
This did not stop the muttering. The House did not intend to reward him by giving vent to bald abuse but it made plain it was not charmed or impressed by the adolescent’s approach. There was little appetite yesterday, on all sides, to regard Mr Miliband as a statesman.
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2411809/QUENTIN-LETTS-Why-angry-Cameron-shot-motionless-Miliband-look-withering-scorn.html#ixzz2dztVAjuF
but:
forgive the ignorance, but isn't universal credit an attempt to remove those monster marginal tax hikes/benifit cuts that you so often bemoan- and as such wouldn't you support it, or something like it?
its not like labour really has anything to crow about in the large IT implementation department, is it?
Moral of the story, never buy a used bank from Gordon Brown - Britannia's killing them.
Just over a day and an hour to the start of the first practice session. Early discussion is up here:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2013/09/italy-early-discussion.html
Of course you realise that for some frequent posters, that their purpose is never to exchange a view but to browbeat and impose their opinions repeatedly on others.
On IDS the computer chap interviewed on R4 earlier said he suspected IDS was not aware of the problems as the culture in the Civil Service is to hope "it will all be alright on the night" - yet tim claims MODERATED. I do hope he's got a good link for that claim - wouldn't want to get OGH in trouble.....
(in reality I suppose, its a middle class organization, and the middle classes, on average are broadly liberal, not as right wing as yr average tory. like the BBC)
It worked quite well for a couple of reasons: firstly, it removed a level of ass-covering management from the specification, and made the engineers feel appreciated and valued.
(*) Every project he worked on met targets; highly unusual in this industry.
Whatever the answer he seems to be getting (wholly deserved) atrocious press. POEMWAS!
Much as I'd like Andy Murray to retain his title I just can't see him or Novak resisting Nadal in this form in the final.
Nadal - 5/4 for the title - Get on.
Many of their leaders have lost touch with their membership - usually being on a salary and benefits package that is often 10x of more that of their members and something that their members can only dream about.
As SeanT commented in the previous thread, due to rapid globalisation, we are seeing that for many of the uneducated and unskilled have no jobs to go to.
The Unions needs to be rethinking their strategic purpose and perhaps using their political funds for the re-education and up-skilling of their members so that these people (who have been let down by the education system) do have a future prospect of employment.
There's only so much you can blame on *failing to get the message across*
Kinnock clearly saw the problems within the party and in policy context. He did an excellent job in putting the Labour party in a viable position to contend for power and see off the threat of the Alliance. However for all his efforts the voters weren't convinced he was Prime Ministerial material.
The better comparison for Ed is IDS - Picked because of who he wasn't, unsure of his leadership in the party, lacking the confidence of big backers and fatally ignored or poorly rated by the public in general and too many of his own supporters.
Ed Duncan-Smith step forward.
And long due for reform. Ed Miliband is right on this one. The timing and tactics of sorting out the union funding issue may be poor, but the principle is right.
Incidentally it is striking how I (as an Orange booker,occasionally a PB tory) am often the only one on here to speak up for Ed M. The PB lefties seem to be unwilling to counter the Ed is Crap meme, and at best try to throw up chaff.
He really looks rather friendless, and Ed Balls is curiously silent. I suspect him of Brownian plotting.
WARNING - over 18s only.
http://www.independent.ie/world-news/europe/storm-over-bid-to-kill-unflattering-hollande-photo-29554386.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/9414160/Three-dozen-union-chiefs-take-home-more-than-100000.html
If ever (at it is most unlikely) that I engaged in a bet with you, you would have to put the money up front and lodge it in an escrow account.
Student Union doesn't count.
That's not what TSE is saying, though - he's saying we might not put much effort into the Euros. No opinion on that.
In cross-party harmony, I'd like to endorse fitalass's plug for
http://ukgeneralelection2015.blogspot.co.uk/
Apart from being a treasure trove of information, it's the only blog I've ever seen that says he doesn't want any money! Just links. We should all plug it.
I'm not a great fan of Ed Miliband but fear his brother would have been even worse.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/sep/04/tories-gearing-up-for-miliband-kicking#start-of-comments
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/10255749/Liam-Byrne-Labour-will-help-Iain-Duncan-Smith-save-Universal-Credit.html
Additionally Labour are very poor regicides and unless Ed's position becomes utterly untenable he will remain in place - Excellent news for the Coalition.
Journalist Ben @journalistben
BREAKING: #Kent Police now saying #Sheppey crash could involve 100 vehicles.
The House of Commons decided.
Endex.
Doctors who agreed to arrange illegal abortions based on the sex of an unborn baby have been told they will not face criminal charges, despite prosecutors admitting that there is enough evidence to take them to court, it emerged on Wednesday night.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/law-and-order/10287574/Gender-abortions-criminal-charges-not-in-public-interest-says-CPS.html
A Coop bank operating as a separate Company would not be able to give the Labour party special rates. What we do not know is whether this will take 1, 2 or more years. The experience elsewhere of the fast track splitting off of the TSB may help speed up decisions at the Coop group.