Categories
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Trump’s approval ratings drop to new low with women voters mov
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Trump’s approval ratings drop to new low with women voters moving most against him
There’s a new US national poll just out from Monmouth University – the organisation which did best forecasting this week’s Alabama senate election. Its final survey there had it as a tie which was closest to the outcome. Monmouth uses traditional live phone interviews and calls mobiles as landlines.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
I'm still shocked 3% of African-American voted for him.
Fox & Friends Decides Roy Moore Lost in Alabama Because of Harvey Weinstein
On Wednesday morning, the folks at Fox & Friends dealt with the heartbreaking news of Roy Moore's defeat in the Alabama Senate race by engaging in some somber, thoughtful reflection. Doug Jones, a former prosecutor who brought church-bombing members of the KKK to justice, will be Alabama's next senator, and the president's favorite morning couch-dwellers know why: Harvey Weinstein.
"It was hard for women to go to the polls and vote for him, even though those allegations were just allegations, and even though it happened so long ago," explained Ainsley Earhardt. "This was not a referendum on Trump. I feel like this was a referendum on Harvey Weinstein."
https://www.gq.com/story/fox-friends-moore-weinstein
In my personal opinion this whole thing is parliament's mess first of all, and though the vote last night was probably for the best in terms of holding the government's handling of Brexit accountable it has also raised the possibility of a bigger mess if parliament does end up rejecti g the whole process after all.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade/retailindustry/timeseries/j467/drsi
So it is only Germany, France and Italy who are suffering the retail sales 'end of days'.
Looking further back retail sales are over double in the austerity deprived, food back dependent present than they were in the loadsamoney and yuppies Lawson Boom era thirty years ago.
There's only one thing I detest more than ultra-Remainers, and that's anti Daltonites.
Which is a key reason Leave won the referendum.
Many continental European politicians and EU apparatchiks believe passionately in their vision of a federal Europe (ever closer union) and do not view democratic votes in any EU member state as a legitimate to prevent or hinder it.
Most people in the UK feel very differently, and do not share that vision.
That is where the chronic distrust comes from. The EU's lack of understning of how (and why) the UK might see things very differently, and the belief most Eurosceptics share that they've been vindicated in the past (and continue to be now) in their predictions of ongoing federalisation (despite being often told that each successive Treaty means no such thing, and accused of foaming or ranting at the time) explains much of the emotion.
It doesn't get more emotive that the destiny of your country and its democratic systems.
Only a couple of days ago you were happy to like this tweet that refers to hating the EU:
https://twitter.com/HandofGOD7/status/939843798380752897
So I'm taking your word for it.
Personally, I can't see any proper reconciliation taking place until Brexit has actually taken effect and the transition period has ended (it's very important the latter finishes prior to the next GE and the new relationship takes effect otherwise, under a new Labour Government post GE2022, we could simply end up in a permanent limbo in "transition" - which never ends - whilst meanwhile a case is built to rejoin).
Once we have new trade, immigration and regulatory powers, and it's a done deal, I expect both main parties to constructively argue how they'd use them.
Next time some simpering luvvie is bemoaning low turn out at elections they would do well to remember this week.
Does Norway have FOM? Yes
Does Norway take part in the Single Market? Yes
Is Norway a member of the EU? No
https://twitter.com/MichaelPDeacon/status/941073764934184961
Further, I have also criticised JHB for calling Philip Hammond a traitor, and this morning have called out Farage's hypocrisy, so nor am I blind to stupidity on "my own side".
Nice to know I have you as a friendly stalker, though.
The main reason there isn't a man on Mars yet is because alot of NASA (particularly the SLS) has become a bloated organisation that only exists for jobs creation and has forgotten its primary objectives particularly in human spaceflight.
So yes if the Gov't goes about leaving the EU in the same way NASA is trying to send humans to Mars, I'd say it was ignoring the voters.
OTOH If the Gov't went about leaving the EU in the way SpaceX is trying to get humans to Mars and didn't make it in ten years - but was making clear and obvious progress toward the end goal (And obviously there are hiccups along the way) and actually trying to get there then I'd say that would be no failure.
It's a tenuous and ropey analogy but the Gov't is definitely more toward the SpaceX end of at least trying to make progress (Difficult, at times painful progress) on the issue whereas alot of parliament are happy for leaving the EU to become a makework scheme in much the same way getting to Mars is a sort of never quite there goal for NASA.
Does Norway have to take EU regulations directly in order to retain that privilege?
At the moment is stumbles along, barely meeting its remit on occasion. Whilst in principle it is absolutely the best system we could ever hope for and is still worth supporting, in practice there are real deficiencies which mean that there is a clear separation between the aspirations and the reality. We need to fix those deficiencies soon or the whole system will fall into disrepute.
It really is that simple.
CR is right: the problem was and is one of chronic distrust. Leave could never have come remotely close to winning with just the UKIP vote.
Then again, you will have all sorts of PB Leavers after you if you tell them you don't give a fig about immigration. @HYUFD might even tell you (cf his pronouncements on what constitutes a true Conservative) that you are not a true Leaver.
If you call Leavers swivel-eyed, you can't complain if they call Remainers traitors.
You need to get that through your head. Then, the discussion can move on.
I think the only way I could move the discussion forward now is to go for a pint with him, but, assuming he didn't refuse or ignore the request, which I think he would, I couldn't be confident he wouldn't shout or scream at me in the pub, or pour the beer over my head.
I have close friends and family who have very different political opinions to me.
We're bigger than this.
Brexiteers will regret their pact with Farage
Ministers who exploited fears about immigration to win the EU referendum are wrong to think they can ignore it now.
Gove, Boris Johnson, David Davis and Liam Fox — are all themselves instinctively in favour of immigration. Indeed Mr Fox once had to be slapped down by the prime minister in cabinet when he suggested that any fall in the number of EU migrants could be outstripped by a rise in arrivals from other countries. For these liberal “buccaneers” the whole point of leaving the EU is to create a more open, “global” Britain that is outward-looking and welcoming to foreigners.
To them, controlling the free movement of people is about ensuring there is parliamentary approval of the system rather than reducing the numbers coming into this country. They recoil from the xenophobia of Nigel Farage but they won the EU referendum by tapping into the more protectionist, anti-immigrant mood he embodies as well as the free market confidence of Eurosceptics like them.
Consciously or not, the Tories in the official Vote Leave campaign struck a Faustian (or Faragian) pact with the Ukip-dominated Leave.EU movement. Even if they did not play the race card overtly themselves they benefited from it being played by others. Publicly they condemned Mr Farage’s “breaking point” poster, showing a queue of migrants, but privately they capitalised on its message. As the Tory peer Sayeeda Warsi said at the time, Vote Leave (backed by Mr Gove and Mr Johnson) ran a “nudge nudge, wink wink xenophobic” campaign. One ad claimed, misleadingly, that: “Turkey (76 million) is joining the EU”.
Of course, immigration was not the driving force for all Brexit voters but Dominic Cummings, the Vote Leave campaign strategist, admits his camp would not have got to the critical 52 per cent without it. As he wrote on his blog: “Immigration was a baseball bat that just needed picking up at the right time and in the right way”.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/past-six-days/2017-12-12/comment/brexiteers-will-regret-theirpact-with-farage-38btktnc6
Quoting Sayeeda Warsi, the woman who warned of militant secularists, hardly lends credibility to the logically challenging interpretation of reality the article expounds.
When public disagreement is claimed as the exact opposite, you can make anyone 'say' anything.
So wait- nobody can ever mention immigration in an election campaign ?
Merkel and Schultz tried that recently - didn't go so well.
For some reason,, many Leavers seem to make general comments about Leavers, even when evidenced in detail, as personal to them. Guilt, I suspect.
Highest first day total for England in Australia since 2002...
A matching century from YJB tomorrow would be nice.
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2017/12/does-government-s-commons-defeat-mean-brexit-can-be-stopped
* Winning the referendum
* Setting up a rival referendum organisation to Farage
* Not spending the entire referendum attacking Farage
* Sympathising with a vast swathe of voters who aren't comfortable with unfettered immigration
* Mentioning the official Turkish and EU position on Turkey's membership
* Winning the votes of people with views that remainers don't like.
Any others ?
What is the root cause of the inability to accept defeat? Are we now reaping the rewards of the 'We can't have losers' mentality in education for the last 30 or so years? Do we have a generation of quasi adults ill equipped to deal with the realities losing or rejection after a cosseted and protected childhood, education and introduction to safe spaces?
Have we produced a society that easily feels cheated and is unable to accept rejection? A society that demands rights without recognising the responsibilities on the other side of the equasion?
There is increasing bitterness in the reaction exhibited by some in Labour / Momentum, and some Remainers. You see it in a wide sphere of life these days, aided by Internet exposure and single issue campaigns.
Sad to see our humanity so devalued and intolerant..
The Remain campaign had such delightful characters as Gerry Adams on the same side but I suspect you would not describe that relationship as 'a pact' even though (unlike the Leave campaign) you did nothing at all to distance yourself from the IRA.
If Corbyn wins the next election will you do so?
What on earth, on a politics blog of all places, do people expect?
Do they think I or, say, @Casino_Royale, on Day One of a Corbyn Government, would make posts saying: good call UK not my choice but fair play to you all, I see now it was the right thing to do: let's get to it; those PLCs aren't going to nationalise themselves.
Just like the £350m poster explaining that it was actually only ~£200m hurt them more than it helped.
Will you at least admit that you were mistaken about this, and hadn't considered, to name one factor, the requirements of the Good Friday Agreement?
If 'Ol bonehead wins the next election and becomes PM, I will accept it.
I will retain my opinion of him unless he does much better than I expect, but he'd be the legitimate PM.
Mr h has made a good point. Democracy is democracy even when you dislike the result.
The old gits I drink with occasionally split 3 - 3 over the referendum. They haven't changed their minds but 5 now think we should leave to uphold the referendum result. The odd one out was always a Euro-fanatic, so we excuse him a little.
I agree that the work of the Government including Davis since they took over has been dire. But that is almost a separate issue to the one that Davis was referring to about blank paper referendums.
It's the "winners" who have been completely unhinged.
A pretty simple situation really.
The question of the GFA is entirely separate and needs separate negotiation.
However, over a year later we still have a blank sheet of paper. It's now damaging the UK's overseas relationships. Lots of nations are looking worried that we will continue to prioritise a relationship with the EU over a global perspective and there is no clarity coming from any government department.