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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Huge blow for Trump as GOP loses the Alabama Senate election on a hugely exciting betting night
The chart above is from Betdata.io and shows the dramatic changes in the Betfair price.
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Now learn the lesson and stop selecting duffers.
However let us not forget that in 2009 Democrats lost both the New Jersey and Virginia governorship races and in Januaryy 2010 Ted Kennedy's supposedly safe Massachusetts Senate seat to Republican Scott Brown and also the House in November as well as a number of Senate seats.
Yet come 2012 Obama was still re elected when he defeated Romney by about 3% so I would not write off Trump just yet.
Surely this should be caveated by the fact that the Republicans picked a very poor candidate?
Of course, the candidates they put up next year might be equally as bad.
It could be a country wide slate of child molesters.
@bbclaurak: Davis dawn letter to MPs doesn’t seem to have shifted opinion - May has always coughed rather than lose - so concessions late today or this time is she willing to take the hit?
All the regular posters of how much wind power is contributing to our national energy needs had better hope they can break some records over the next few weeks. The shutdown of the Forties pipeline yesterday will probably mean a loss of UK oil supply of around 40% for the next few weeks.
As the Telegraph reported yesterday, this is combined with a 50% reduction in the gas we can get from Norway and also a massive hit to the whole European gas supply chain because of an explosion on the main supply route in Austria.
Right now a bit of home grown wind would be very welcome.
And a nice little winner for me.
If article 50 can be revoked, Brexiteers can't risk Parliament having that option.
No overall majority is an interesting bet because independents voting with Democrats don't count as Democrats.
A lot of very red states with blue senators up for re-election.
Presumably the Forties shutdown is not good news for the economy, short term at least.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catalan_regional_election,_2017#Opinion_polls
Meteorologicallay, the south coast has been doing its bit these last few weeks.
PP though have a habit of paying out early.
Betfair hasn't settled yet and I expect it will take some time.
I had a lump on Jones at 5.5 and held my nerve except for a small lay at 1.2 in the early hours to cover my bet.
But it's still silly thinking because it's inconceivable that parliament won't have a vote of some nature on the deal once it's done - and because the EP has to have a vote for it to count, there'll be time for Westminster to do so too.
Looking at the images and reports from Austria they are not going to get that facility up and running again any time soon.
For the Republicans, Mississippi, Nebraska, Tennessee, Texas, Utah and Wyoming should be safe. This leaves only Arizona and Nevada in play.
Meanwhile the Democrats have 5 difficult defences in Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota and West Virginia. West Virginia is probably the safest of these as Manchin got 61% last time around. The Dems also need to keep half an eye on Minnesota with Al Franken standing down.
To take the Senate they need to gain both Nevada and Arizona, while holding all of their own seats. It seems a tough ask
A UK vote cannot bind the EU. Would a no vote mean no deal, or the status quo?
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In September to November 2017 there were 798,000 job vacancies in the UK - the highest figure on record, and up 45,000 on the year: http://ow.ly/qUNs30hc6Na
As is the third. Whether there’s currently enough profit in food production to pay wages which will tempt the good people of Boston back to the vegetable fields, I doubt.
Impact assessment on food prices anyone?
If MPs really think it's bad, they should pass a vote of no confidence in the government.
It means the government gets to set the conditions for immigration - i.e. work permits.
The crops wont rot in the fields.
It's a meaningless at best, disasterous at worst vote.
They feared Nixon would drop the big one in 73/74, and he was a very able man.
Welcome to pb.com, Mr. Browser.
Request an extension to A50 deadline?
I don’t particularly understand tbh.
If the govt negotiates a crap deal - then change the govt.
The only way to avoid that is to get all 27 other EU states to agree to a formal extension under Article 50.
And you assume the negotiation of a crap deal is down top the Government. Given the apparent and oft stated intention to punish the UK it might be that changing Government makes no difference.
Or: perhaps they might view it as potential to string out the process. Say a 1 year extension, which then makes further extensions more palatable in future, which then opens the political possibility of the UK overturning the whole thing in a (distant) future referendum.
And thank you Mr D; knew someone would also recall the post.
In view of the history of our wars with France and Germany I eliminated them at the start.
The government's original question was yes/no, and yes has the advantage in referendums. The question was changed to leave/remain.
The horror....
If it passes, it surely means that the Government will have to keep parliament on-board at every stage before the deal is agreed. It's more about keeping parliament involved than the chaos involved in actually voting it down; the threat and power always more important than having to use it.
In the nuclear option the Government would surely be forced to seek an A40 extension (££ time)in all likelihood to cover a snap General Election. But I don't think this is really what it's about.
Far more significant in my view is what Steve Baker is saying about no vote for parliament if there is no deal. That would be a betrayal of everything the Leave campaign was about and the government has promised - but in that case there would be no deal for parliament to vote on. I'd have thought a far more useful amendment would be requiring the Government to gain explicit legislative consent to leave under these circumstances.
Edit - He is still shown as Chair of the Europe of Freedom and Direct Democracy Group in the EU parliament.
Anyway, doesn't really matter while Corbyn is leader. There's surely no way a deal gets voted down in the current HoC, knowing that'd it lead to a potentially disastrous game of chicken with the EU.
Let's have a by-election then...
Yeah, right....